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Monday, October 19, 2026

If Capitalism Had a Beginning, Will It Have an End?

Reviewing Sven Beckert's Capitalism: A Global History: merchants, commodity frontiers and the question the book leaves open


Alberto Garzón
Sep 22, 2026
Ecosocialist Notebook 




This week sees the Spanish publication of Sven Beckert’s monumental Capitalism: A Global History (Crítica). It runs to more than a thousand pages of exhaustive description of capitalism’s historical trajectory, plus more than three hundred pages of bibliography and notes. Works this well documented are rare, and rarer still are those that are also enjoyable to read. It strikes the ideal balance between the scholar's deep knowledge and the popularising impulse that leaves the ivory towers of the university to reach a wide audience. The book was published in English at the end of last year and received an enthusiastic reception that acknowledged, above all, Beckert’s capacity to synthesise the vast body of knowledge accumulated on the history of capitalism.

That said, it has also been criticised for its overall approach, for how it handles various issues, and for certain absences or shortcomings. But of course, when someone sets out to write nothing less than the history of capitalism, reaching back to processes that took place a thousand years ago, I suppose we take it for granted that pleasing everyone is impossible. There is not, and cannot be, such a thing as a perfect work. One thing is clear, though: Capitalism is already an indispensable reference for anyone who wants to know where we come from and who also wants tools to better understand where we are heading.
The engine of transformation


In Capitalism, we should think of capital as a kind of virus, first documented in the twelfth century in Aden, in present-day Yemen. There, we have documented evidence of profit-maximising practices among a notable group of merchants, that is, people who made money by trading goods. Although this was a fundamentally agrarian and tributary society, governed by social norms and customs, these merchants followed an entirely different logic. That logic is what justifies treating Aden as an “island of capital,” a seed of what was to come.

Beckert stresses that Aden was not the cradle of capitalism, but it was proof that capitalists already existed in bygone times. And not only there: the same was true of other places on the planet where capitalists were marginal elements within non-capitalist societies. From this perspective, capitalism took shape gradually through the interconnections between these islands of capital, spreading its logic to other parts of the world and eventually infecting the entire planet. If today almost everything around us is a commodity, and consequently has a price (including ourselves, as labour power), it all began on those islands of capital.

Thus, in Capitalism the founding actors of the modern economic system were merchants. Although we traditionally associate merchants with mere commercial intermediation, Beckert shows that many of them took direct and indirect control over production. Merchants, industrialists and financiers are abstract figures who in practice have been far more intermingled than their conceptual separation suggests. The agrarian plantation complex built by European colonial capital in the New World is a good illustration not only of this mixed control (over production, over the trade in what was produced, and over investment) but also of new ways of organising labour and nature, with the slave plantation as the forerunner of the modern factory, with its controlled rhythms, supervised labour and emphasis on productivity. Those merchants embodied the practices we now call capitalist, which gradually spread not only to other regions of the planet but also into other spheres of economic and social life. As merchants linked up with one another through long-distance trade, archipelagos of capital took shape and their positions grew stronger. In a continuous process of unfolding and expansion, they colonised human life while provoking resistance among ordinary people and among traditional elites jealous of the merchants’ growing wealth. That resistance, and other obstacles, could be overcome by forging alliances with and within the state, which most of the time meant force and war. In Capitalism, indeed, the state is a central actor without which neither the origin nor the triumph of the logic of capital and its usual agents, such as private firms, can be understood.

Besides political resistance, Capitalism also features ecological limits that merchants seek to overcome. These arise from the relative scarcity of natural resources and account for what Beckert calls “commodity frontiers”: a way of naming the process whereby the exhaustion of a resource (a forest, a soil, a population to enslave) drives activity elsewhere, to a place where new resources can be exploited. The movement of capital is thus characterised by landing in a territory, commodifying the resources capital needs to reproduce itself, exploiting and depleting them and, once they are finally exhausted, moving on to another place to repeat the process. Capitalism is full of historical cases documenting this process of successive exploitation and plunder, which shows, following Jason Moore, that capital puts “cheap nature” to work for it in a seemingly endless unfolding. This logic reaches into the present: the competitive scramble for, and unbridled extraction of, critical minerals, for example, make up what Thea Riofrancos calls “the frontiers of green capitalism.” In this sense, frontiers are not national borders but the outermost layer of capital's logic. With these levers, merchants and commodity frontiers, Beckert’s capitalism unfolds across his stimulating pages.
A global analysis


One virtue of Capitalism is that it lets us grasp the logic of capital at its proper scale: global. Accustomed as we are to thinking in national terms, Beckert’s approach forces us to think globally. It is not simply a matter of adding other national or regional histories to the traditional Eurocentric narrative on which millions of people in the West (myself included) were raised. Rather, it is a matter of understanding that the logic of capital operates everywhere at once, so to understand capitalism we must analyse everything at the same time. For instance, some say capitalism is in terminal crisis because Western economies show clear signs of decline. But can we be sure that what is actually happening is not a redefinition of the international division of labour, with the economic centre shifting towards Asia? There is no doubt that the gloomy horizons tormenting the Western middle and working classes, who are watching the welfare states won through decades of struggle come under siege, are not shared by an emerging international working class that has recently escaped absolute poverty and is only now beginning to form the middle strata of its countries and regions. What is, for us, largely a step backwards (towards precarity, vulnerability, instability and fear) is, for them, also broadly speaking, a dream world that none of their previous generations could even have imagined.

This global approach, in which the world economy is the central unit, places Beckert in the tradition of Marx, Bukharin and Wallerstein. This is a sensitive matter among historians of capitalism. The historical tradition that has studied the capitalist economic system most thoroughly, the Marxist one, is deeply divided over its origin. Broadly speaking, one of the main fault lines in the debate has pitted those who believe capitalism originated globally in the sixteenth century, with the expansion of trade networks across the planet following the European conquest of the New World, against those who believe capitalism was born later, as a result of new property relations in the English countryside. The former are usually called Wallersteinians (after Immanuel Wallerstein) and the latter Brennerians (after Robert Brenner). While the former emphasise the world-economy, that is, capitalism as a logic that can only be understood at a world scale, the latter believe they have found a kind of patient zero in the transformations that took place in a single country, England. This theoretically unbridgeable divergence dates back to the postwar period and the work of Maurice Dobb and Paul Sweezy, grew fierce in the so-called Brenner debate of the 1970s, and resurfaces every so often in the same or similar terms. For me, the best recent review is Henry Heller’s The Birth of Capitalism (Pluto Press), though in Spanish there is also Ellen Meiksins Wood’s now-classic survey, The Origin of Capitalism: A Longer View (Siglo XXI).

It is impossible not to ask where Sven Beckert stands in this debate and, after months of reading him closely, I would say it is impossible to give a definitive answer. On the one hand, the global history of capitalism that Beckert tells, as commercial activity unfolding progressively and inexorably, clearly bears Wallerstein’s stamp. On the other hand, Beckert concedes almost everything to Brenner in the chapters reviewing transformations in the rural world. My somewhat trivial conclusion, then, is that Beckert has remained deliberately ambiguous on this point because his real aim is not to explain why capitalism emerged but how the processes we now call capitalist have spread historically and geographically. This is not a flaw but a virtue, because Capitalism provides indispensable raw material for any research programme. What matters is that the rest of us, readers and researchers, are the ones who must ask the questions.
The limits of capitalism


Both interpretations I have described above share a blind spot that is also present, though to a lesser degree, in Beckert’s book: the question of limits. When the 2025 Nobel Prize was awarded, I had the opportunity to discuss this in these pages, but it is worth insisting. If, for most Marxists, the origin of capitalism lies in the history of trade and/or in transformations of property relations, mainstream economists usually locate it in the emergence of institutions such as technological innovation, democracy, or the monetary system. But none of them tends to give sufficient weight to energy and the role of natural resources.

Today’s dominant common sense holds that capitalism faces no real limits but, at most, obstacles that human action can overcome. So we assume that economic growth could continue indefinitely if the right decisions are made; the usual debate is about what those decisions are (should we expand or shrink the space of the self-regulating market? reduce inequality of income and wealth? recover monetary sovereignty? invest much more in research and development?). Since the 1970s, however, what we now know as ecological economics has challenged that belief and raised the possibility that capitalism faces limits that are independent of human decisions: biophysical limits, that is, limits that can be acted upon but not repealed. Even so, most economists ignore these warnings, either downplaying the problem (even when one expression is climate change, which tends to be acknowledged) or trusting that human creativity will solve the problems with more technology.

The irony is that the classical economists, such as David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus, and later William Stanley Jevons, considered infinite economic growth impossible. For them, limits linked to land and/or natural resources were obvious. Marx was reluctant to accept the idea of absolute limits valid for every economic system, although the matter is still debated; he accepted that capitalism had internal limits, but not that future socialism would face the same deficit. And although this path was closed off in the formation of most economists’ common sense, it remained a subject of research and theorising.

From this other research programme, inspired by the work of E. A. Wrigley, Kenneth Pomeranz, Georgescu-Roegen and Paolo Malanima, industrial capitalism was only possible because it drew on fossil fuels (first as a source of heat, which freed up land, and then as a source of mechanical energy, which raised productivity). This necessary but not sufficient condition allowed economies to break free of the limits that land had imposed on every society since the dawn of humanity, but at the cost of consuming a non-renewable stock that we are squandering like a reckless heir. The availability of an extraordinary source of fossilised energy allowed the societies that managed to harness it to make a giant leap in productive capacity and, when political struggle pushed for it, in the living conditions of the population as a whole. The consequences of this fact are not mere externalities, as climate change and other ecological impacts are usually presented, but are intrinsic to economic dynamics. This means that the future of capitalism is also necessarily bound up with the fate of fossil fuels and with humanity’s capacity to replace them with alternative energy sources that provide the same physical services (among them power, the key to the systematic rise in productivity over the last two hundred years).

Beckert touches on this point only superficially. On the one hand, he accepts that the growth of preindustrial societies was constrained by the fixed availability of land, but assumes that technological advances overcame these limitations and that, consequently, Malthusian fears were not borne out. This reading is too conventional, because the classical economists’ concern was not cancelled but suspended, insofar as the leap rested on drawing down a finite stock. What will remain when that stock runs out? On the other hand, in the epilogue Beckert also concedes that the creativity capitalism stimulates has managed to decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption. This concession is too hasty, because the observed decoupling is between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, and it holds only for the most developed economies; absolute levels of fossil fuel consumption, for example, reached a new all-time high in 2025. Moreover, we still depend on fossil fuels not only for transport but also for most of the goods and food we consume. In fact, immediately after making that concession, Beckert openly asks whether capitalism can coexist with a natural world that will always be finite. And the truth is that, so far, no combination of energy sources has managed both things that would be needed at once: to provide the world economy with the physical services that fossil fuels provide today, and to do so in time.
The world to come


While Capitalism says little about energy, it is generous on land: exhausted soils, felled forests, shifting frontiers. The same is true of the social conflicts capitalism generates. These are described in marvellous depth and, particularly for recent decades, organised by political regime. The sections on the taming of capitalism, that is, on what we have called the “golden age of capitalism” (for its high rates of economic growth, today a pipe dream in the West), are brilliant. They also allow an apt contrast with the features of social conflict under neoliberalism, yielding a picture of the profound structural weakness of workers’ organisations in their capacity to influence economic decisions.

According to a well-known anecdote, Margaret Thatcher once said that one of her greatest achievements was New Labour and its leader, Tony Blair. She was not wrong, because that Third Way was both a renunciation of reformism (which, for all its limits, still pursued a socialist society) and the expression of ideological defeat at the hands of those who promoted ideas such as “popular capitalism.” For decades, the Western political left has been so defensive that the new and modest proposals of authors such as Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman, or, more recently, Daron Acemoglu seem revolutionary. Perhaps that is why neoliberalism’s self-inflicted defeat after the 2008 financial crisis did not give way to a progressive and socialist wave (which is what even someone like Nicolas Sarkozy expected when he rushed to call for a swift refounding of capitalism) but to a genuine and dangerous reactionary tsunami across the West. A new division of labour that downgrades the place of the economies that have formed the world’s centre since the sixteenth century, growing inequality produced by neoliberal inertia, and ecological and labour anxieties: together they make the perfect cocktail.

Indeed, Beckert reminds us that union density is in decline, and that this is not just a question of will but of structural problems. His argument raises a further question. When the logic of capital has advanced to the point of contaminating almost every aspect of our lives, turning human beings into isolated individuals stretched to the limit by market competition, cooperative behaviour becomes much harder to sustain. In a world economy in which billions of workers compete for the best-paid segments of the labour market, capital runs a race to the bottom on wages. And in that structural context, in which workers in Cambodia or Kenya occupy the bottom rung of the global ladder of exploitation, workers in Morocco or Thailand the next one up, and those in Spain or the United Kingdom the higher rungs, it is not hard to understand (though never to justify) why fear drives workers to turn against one another, demanding protectionist and/or anti-immigration policies to ease that anxiety.

This brings me to the last point I would like to raise in this review: geopolitical tensions. Although English liberalism, born of the Napoleonic Wars and especially after 1846, rested on direct and indirect imperialism over other regions of the world, it still proclaimed that capitalism was associated with peace and a better future. Even a considerable share of the left-wing thinkers of the time, many of them followers of Richard Cobden, accepted this thesis, which many still defend today when they equate trade with peace. Chapter 13 of Capitalism, however, takes us back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when competition between countries intensified and helped create the conditions that led to the two world wars. The central question is: why did this happen? Beckert suggests that the defensive reactions of countries such as France and Germany were driven by fear of a rising power, the United States.

It is worth remembering that both Germany and the United States were accelerating industrialisation through mercantilist policies of tariff protection and support for infant industries, and both knew they needed raw materials. Beckert cites, for example, Friedrich Naumann, a German liberal politician who argued for expanding the colonies in order to secure the supply of natural resources German industry required. This was a widespread view, and it had an immediate historical precedent: it was exactly what the United States had done in expanding westward, killing and isolating Native Americans (whom the dominant ideology considered inferior) and seizing their lands and resources. Late nineteenth-century colonialism also reflected a zero-sum conception of the world.

Perhaps it is no coincidence that today we are witnessing a return of the same mercantilist proposals in the West, justified largely by similar arguments. Western militarisation is advancing by leaps and bounds while industries retreat to their home territories, where the shelter of the state guarantees them solid defences against threats in the international market. The state is coming back, but not to broaden the rights of the working class; rather, to direct an industrial policy aimed at “securing” supply chains. Elsewhere, I have argued that a pendulum swings between free trade and protectionism, and between conceptions of wealth as a positive-sum or a zero-sum game. Today, in the midst of the eco-social crisis, and when not even billionaires trust in the future, eager as they are to leave for Mars or build underground bunkers, it seems more urgent than ever to reorganise resistance to capitalism. Because our lives depend on it.


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Kenya-France

Workers’ internationalism in action

Thursday 15 October 2026, by Paul Martial





The struggle for the rights of Kenyan workers at the French multinational digital services company is being organised from Nairobi to Paris.

This is a fine example of an international struggle. The CGT’s telecommunications branch, in collaboration with Kenyan organisations, with the support of legal experts and drawing on academic research, has issued a formal notice to the company Téléperformance.

Social conditions in tatters

Although little known to the general public, Téléperformance, part of the TP holding company, is a French multinational employing over 400,000 staff worldwide. Through a series of acquisitions, TP has diversified, moving from call centres specialising in customer relationship management to visa processing and social media moderation.

The CEO receives a fixed annual salary of $2,625,000, plus a variable component of the same amount, whilst most employees in France barely earn slightly more than the minimum wage. Finally, as Hadrien Clouet, an MP for La France insoumise (LFI), pointed out in his question to the National Assembly in 2024, the 340 interventions by the labour inspectorate since 2016, the 60 on-site inspections to verify compliance with labour regulations, the 150 letters of observation, the dozen reports and the eight formal notices give an idea of the working conditions that may prevail within this company.

Employees at risk

As one might expect, this social abuse is found wherever the company operates. In Kenya, it has no qualms about employing undocumented migrants, which allows it to keep employees under pressure, particularly as, in that country, it is the company’s responsibility to carry out the necessary formalities with the authorities to regularise their status.

Whilst social security contributions are deducted from wages, they are paid late, or not at all, causing hardship for employees and their families, particularly when it comes to accessing healthcare. Any dissenting voice is punished, especially when it comes to trade unionists.

Finally, employees responsible for moderating social media are subjected to a constant stream of content and must identify, within a matter of tens of seconds, the applicable rule to decide whether to remove a post. Added to this pressure are the traumatic effects of exposure to extremely violent content. The psychological support offered by the company falls far short of what is needed. Seeing the company psychologist takes time, at the risk of failing to meet productivity targets. Many employees also have doubts about the confidentiality of these consultations. This is the price employees must pay to ensure a 6.35 per cent return for shareholders.

International mobilisation

In collaboration with two Kenyan organisations – the Data Labellers Association, which supports data workers, and The Oversight Lab, which defends human rights in the field of new technologies – the CGT [major French trade-union confederation] has served a formal notice under the 2017 Duty of Care Act.

The company, whose profits amounted to 497 million euros in 2025, has three months to take measures to ensure the protection of employees and compliance with legislation on work permits and trade union rights. Failing this, the union will take the matter to the relevant courts. This is a model example of a workers’ response to corporate offshoring policies.

15 October 2026

Translated by International Viewpoint from l’Anticapitaliste.

 

Russia wins UN committee vote branding Western sanctions a form of colonialism

Russia wins UN committee vote branding Western sanctions a form of colonialism
Every BRICS member backed the Russian-drafted text, while the US, the UK, Japan, Israel, Ukraine and all 27 EU states voted against it. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin October 18, 2026

Neo-colonialism is back as a hot button issue and has been very effectively used by the Kremlin to undermine the West’s influence in Africa while binding these countries more closely to Russia’s expanding influence in the Global South.

A Russian-drafted resolution equating unilateral economic sanctions to modern colonialism cleared a UN General Assembly committee by 85 votes to 49, with 23 abstentions, on October 15. Notably most of Africa voted with Russia while most of the Global North voted against the motion.

The Fourth Committee voting board for draft A/C.4/81/L.5 on October 15: 85 in favour (green), 49 against (red), 23 abstentions (yellow). Source: UN

The General Assembly's Fourth Committee, which handles special political and decolonisation questions, approved draft A/C.4/81/L.5, "Addressing contemporary forms of colonialism", in a recorded vote, according to the UN's own meetings coverage. It was one of more than 20 drafts the committee approved that day. A committee vote is not final: the text now goes to the full General Assembly for adoption in plenary.

The vote is the latest test of Moscow's campaign to recast Western sanctions as colonialism and part of Putin’s big bet on the Global South Century. Every member of BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE - voted in favour, the voting board shows, while the US, the UK, Japan, Israel, Ukraine and all 27 EU member states voted against. Brazil and Russia had already rejected unilateral coercive measures as unlawful in a joint statement signed in Brasilia in February, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used last year's General Assembly session to network with dozens of global south delegations. Sanctions sit at the heart of the economic war between Russia and the West.

Russia has been held the Russia-African summit twice in Russia and colonialism has been a major theme at both. Russia’s claim to fame is the Soviet Union was a rare western power that did not follow a colonial policy and during the Cold War the communists usually backed the domestic independent movements, something many African countries remain grateful until this day.

At the same time, as IntelliNews reported, the Western “globalisation” model has until recently been a polite neologism for an updated neo-colonialism model: up to 80% of its manufacturing is exported to low-wage emerging markets – exactly the problem that US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs was trying to tackle - exporting the human capital wealth of poor market back to Western markets in the form of cheap iPhones and other goods, according to one study.

Under the text, the UN Assembly would recognise that "colonialism persists in contemporary forms and practices in relations among States, and may be expressed through resort to unilateral economic, financial or trade measures not in accordance with international law and the Charter", the UN said in its summary of the draft. The text also lists the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, interference in states' internal affairs and restrictions on access to markets and services.

Moscow tables, Washington pushes back

Russia's representative introduced the draft on behalf of the Group of Friends in Defence of the Charter of the United Nations, a bloc formed in July 2021 that includes China, Cuba and Iran. He said the text offered a positive alternative by encouraging stronger international co-operation to reduce structural inequality, according to the UN. When the committee opened its general debate on October 1, the Russian delegate said "modern-day colonialism is seen, among other things, through unilateral coercive measures", and announced the group would table a new resolution on the issue, the UN's coverage of that meeting shows.

The US representative told the committee that sanctions, export controls and sovereign trade decisions are lawful tools of statecraft and that every nation has the right to choose its trading partners and respond to threats, according to the UN summary. She also said Havana had for years used Venezuela's oil wealth to prop up its failed economy, and that the US had arrested Venezuela's dictator - a reference to the seizure of Nicolas Maduro, whose release Moscow has demanded.

"We are not surprised by the position taken by the Government of the United States, the main promoter of unilateral coercive measures and economic blockades," Cuba's delegate replied.

Ukraine called the draft "another attempt by Russia to present itself as a champion of decolonization" while Moscow pursues neocolonial policies of its own, and said sanctions are a legitimate response to Russia's aggression. Liechtenstein, speaking also for Iceland and Norway, said implementing the principles behind the draft in full "would entail a significant policy shift by the drafter of this text". "Norway cannot accept a resolution presented by a state violating another state's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity," Norway's UN mission said in a statement on October 15.

How emerging markets voted

The board shows all five Central Asian states - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - voting in favour, along with Belarus. Georgia and Moldova voted against, as did Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Serbia abstained. Hungary and Slovakia, the EU members most reluctant on Russia sanctions, voted against with the rest of the bloc. No vote is recorded for Turkey, Armenia or Azerbaijan.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman voted in favour alongside the UAE, as did Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore. In Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Algeria and Ghana backed the text and Morocco abstained, while no vote is recorded for Nigeria or Kenya. South Korea and Mongolia abstained.

Latin America split. Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Cuba and Nicaragua voted in favour, Ecuador voted against, and Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Paraguay and Panama abstained. Argentina gave no official explanation for its abstention, MercoPress reported on October 16, and drew criticism from Carlos Bianco, the government minister of Buenos Aires province, who said "the Malvinas Question deserves a diplomacy that is not on its knees".

The split is far sharper than on last year's Russian-backed text declaring December 14 the International Day against Colonialism in All Its Forms and Manifestations, which the General Assembly adopted on December 5, 2025 by 116 votes to two, with only the US and Israel against and 54 abstentions, according to the voting record. The UK and France, which abstained on that text, voted against this one.

Friday, October 16, 2026

 

Researchers improve weather forecasts looking two to six weeks out



A new machine-learning approach broke records for weather forecasting for an important time frame in emergency planning.




Massachusetts Institute of Technology




  • Researchers developed a machine-learning model that learns to correct errors in existing forecasting models to make their output more accurate over the two-to-six-week time frame, a key window for emergency planning.
  • When applied to a gold-standard forecasting model, the new method doubled forecasting accuracy over that time frame, placing first in a prominent international forecasting competition.
  • The new method could provide energy operators, farmers and emergency response officials around the world more time to better prepare for storms. 

Cambridge, Mass. -- In 2021, Texas suffered the worst energy infrastructure failure in state history, following three severe winter storms in February. At least 246 people were killed as a result of the disruptions, which led to food, water, heat and electricity shortages.

If energy officials had had more time to prepare for the storms, for example by bringing in more trucks of natural gas to disrupted areas, damage from the event could have been mitigated. Unfortunately, weather forecasts beyond two weeks are notoriously unreliable, making for a tighter window for energy operators, farmers, and emergency response officials around the globe.

A new technique by a team including researchers at MIT significantly improves weather forecasting beyond two weeks. The researchers developed a machine-learning model that learns to correct errors in existing forecasting models to improve their output over the two-to-six-week time frame. When applied to a gold-standard forecasting model, it doubled forecasting accuracy over that time frame, placing first in a prominent international forecasting competition.

In a new paper in Nature, the researchers describe their approach and show how it enables forecasts that for the first time beat climatologic averages between two and six weeks.

“Not only does this do better on time averaged forecasts for this range, which is already very useful for farmers and members of the energy industry trying to match supply with demand, but it also improves predictions of extreme weather events, whether it’s flooding or cold spells or something else,” co-author and MIT Research Scientist Judah Cohen says. “It’s really important to predict both, but extreme events might be the most impactful part of this for society.” 

Joining Cohen on the paper are lead authors Hannah Guan, a Harvard College undergraduate; Soukayna Mouatadid, a University of Toronto postdoc; Genevieve Flaspohler SM ’18, PhD ’22; Paulo Orenstein, an associate professor at Brazil’s National Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics; Jeremy Berman of the data company DTN; Jakob Schloer and Joshua Talib, researchers with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; and Alex Lu, Haiyu Dong, Jonathan Weyn, Zekun Ni, and Lester Mackey, all researchers at Microsoft.

Longer forecasts

In the 1970s, longtime MIT Professor Edward Lorenz came up with the idea of chaos theory to describe how tiny changes in initial weather conditions lead to completely different outcomes.

“He came up with this theoretical two-week limit where beyond that, we just can’t predict weather because the noise in the system grows so much that it overwhelms any signal you start with,” Cohen says. “That had a strong influence on the field that may have held people back from exploring forecasting beyond the two-week range. I never really believed that completely. In theory the atmosphere can create an infinite number of patterns, but it likes to fall into these favorite patterns over and over again. Once one thing happens, I think you can predict the domino that will fall after that, and the domino that will fall after that.”

Today, the best weather forecasts come from either dynamical models, which numerically simulate how the atmosphere and oceans evolve over time, or artificial intelligence models, which learn to make predictions from historical weather data. AI models have shown improvements in predicting weather at short ranges, but they’re even worse than dynamical models at longer time ranges.

Cohen, who is based in the MIT Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, focuses on forecasting weather two to six week in advance, which is known as subseasonal forecasting.

“That range is referred to as the ‘predictability desert,’ because in the short range you can capitalize on the initial conditions in the climate system and the atmosphere, and on the longer term you have these slow, varying boundary forces, like the super El Niño everyone’s focused on this winter,” Cohen says. “The subseasonal range can’t take advantage of either of those. In most cases forecasting in the subseasonal ranges is no different than going to a casino and rolling the dice.”

Cohen credits his co-author Lester Mackey, whom he has been collaborating with for more than a decade, with the initial idea of using machine learning to reduce errors in forecasting models.

“We built this wrapper — Lester calls it postprocessing,” Cohen says. “We know AI models have a lot of errors, so we thought maybe we can quantify those errors and remove them.”

While other forecasting systems do more simplistic error correction, the research team’s postprocessing layer uses AI to learn from a forecasting system’s mistakes based on historic data and shifts its forecasts. In that time range, forecasters use so-called probabilistic forecasts, where the likelihood of a range of possibilities if given.

“As more forecasts and data become available, our model adaptively improves its correction,” Cohen says.

To build the model, the researchers used MIT Engaging, a supercomputing cluster hosted by MIT’s Office of Research Computing and Data, but the resulting model does not require a supercomputer to run.

To put their model to the test, last year the research team submitted three models that included their post-processing layer to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is considered the best forecasting center in the world. Each season ECMWF holds forecasting competitions between models.

The submission that won first place combined ECMWF’s forecasting model with another, and then applied the postprocessing correction on top. That approach ended up doubling the original model’s predictive power in the subseasonal range. For the first time, the model offered an improvement over relying on climatologic averages.

“Up until now, no one had been able to show a model predicts weather better than long term averages for these subseasonal forecasts,” Cohen says. “They’ve pretty much all been worse than that — you could literally flip a coin and do better. People have questioned if it’s even worth investing in models at all for this time range. We consistently beat climatology averages with our models.”

The model also showed a statistically significant improvement in the ability to predict extreme weather.

“That’s one of the more important findings, because it’s so difficult to accomplish,” Cohen says. “When the ECMWF developed their own, non-AI, error-correction to their model, it got worse at predicting extreme weather. I think that’s because traditional error, or bias, correction is always trying to get to the mean, whereas extreme weather is on the fringe of probabilities.”

Preparing for disaster

In the Nature paper, the team showed their technique could be used to improve land forecasts in most regions across the globe. They also applied their bias correction technique to other models and showed it improved those as well, putting even lesser models on par with the ECMWF’s forecasts.

“What’s nice about our model is it’s an add-on wrapper,” Cohen explains. “We used it with the ECMWF’s dynamical model because that was considered the best, but it can be used with any model. It even improves models that are already bias corrected using another AI algorithm. So it shows a robust improvement. And it’s open source and low cost.”

Cohen says the meteorological office for the Republic of Kenya has already reached out about implementing the model to improve forecasting of the annual monsoon season to improve agricultural yields this winter. He hopes other groups will also use the model.

“This could help you decide when to fertilize around rain, when there’s a freeze coming to protect crops during winter harvests, or help you avoid droughts,” Cohen says. “It could also be useful for energy and emergency management. I’ve talked to energy officials who say, ‘If I’m told two days before that an ice storm’s coming, I don’t have enough time, but if I had two weeks, that could be enough to make adequate preparations.”

The work was supported, in part, by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support, and the European Union.

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Written by Zach Win, MIT News

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

Pipedream? Africa’s cannabis licensing push outpaces evidence of commercial returns

Pipedream? Africa’s cannabis licensing push outpaces evidence of commercial returns
/ AI-generated illustration of cannabis harvestingFacebook
By bne IntelliNews October 10, 2026

Africa’s regulated cannabis industries are expanding through cultivation projects and processing investments, but growth in licences and production has yet to be matched by clear evidence of sales revenue, export earnings or profitability.

The emerging businesses fall into distinct markets: industrial hemp, medicinal and pharmaceutical cannabis, and regulated cannabis-derived consumer products such as cosmetics and food supplements. Recreational cannabis is a separate category, governed by different rules on possession, cultivation and sales. Each market has its own customers, regulatory requirements and commercial prospects.

Developments during 2025 and the first nine months of 2026 reveal sharply different stages of maturity. Ghana is establishing trading arrangements around licensed low-THC cultivation, Botswana is testing industrial hemp production, and Morocco has progressed into medical, industrial and consumer-product processing. South Africa, meanwhile, permits private adult use but has yet to establish a legal framework for recreational cannabis sales.

Morocco provides the strongest evidence of an emerging regulated supply chain, with recorded harvests, processing capacity and registered products. Newer markets largely report licences, investment plans and cultivation trials rather than completed commercial transactions.

Ghana and Botswana take different routes into production

Ghana is developing trading infrastructure for low-THC cannabis, while Botswana is concentrating on industrial hemp trials.

Ghana first provided for licensed low-THC cannabis cultivation in 2020, but the Supreme Court struck down the provision in 2022. Parliament restored the legal basis through the Narcotics Control Commission (Amendment) Act, 2023 (Act 1100).

A licensing regime launched in February 2026 under Legislative Instrument 2475 covers 11 activities, including cultivation, processing, laboratory services and export. Permitted varieties must contain no more than 0.3% tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound in cannabis. The framework covers authorised industrial, medical and research activities rather than recreational sales.

In April 2026, the Ghana Commodity Exchange and the Chamber of Cannabis Industry Ghana agreed to develop a trading framework to improve traceability, pricing and market access.

On July 31, 2026, the Narcotics Control Commission (NACOC) issued Ghana's first two cultivation licences to MG Adom Limited and Juliopta Limited. In September, NACOC expanded cooperation with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research on testing, traceability and research.

Botswana approved its cannabis policy in April 2025 and passed the Cannabis Act that August. The legislation took effect in December, followed by implementing regulations in January 2026. The framework covers medicinal, scientific, research and industrial activities, with a 0.7% THC threshold for industrial varieties.

By February 2026, the National Cannabis Control Authority was operating and two companies had received pilot cultivation licences. The government said they would work with the National Agricultural Research and Development Institute.

President Duma Boko reported encouraging hemp cultivation results in July 2026. The government has designated the state-owned Dibete farm for initial cultivation, although commercial production there has not been established.

The commercial distinction is that Ghana is seeking to establish trading arrangements for licensed growers, while Botswana is assessing whether industrial hemp cultivation can support downstream investment and help diversify its diamond-dependent economy.

Morocco develops medical, industrial and consumer-product markets

Morocco has progressed beyond licensing into legal harvesting, processing and product development, with reported access to foreign markets.

Law 13-21, adopted in 2021, established a regulated framework for medical, pharmaceutical and industrial cannabis. Recreational sales remain prohibited.

The National Agency for the Regulation of Cannabis-related Activities (ANRAC) oversees cultivation in designated areas of Al Hoceima, Chefchaouen and Taounate, where approved cooperatives supply licensed buyers under contract.

Industrial cannabis is subject to a 1% THC threshold, while higher-THC varieties may be cultivated for authorised medical and pharmaceutical purposes. The resulting products serve different markets, ranging from pharmaceutical applications to approved cosmetics and food supplements.

Legal production reached 19,576 quintals (approximately 1,958 tonnes) of dry cannabis matter in 2025, up from 18,810 quintals in 2024, according to figures released in April 2026.

ANRAC issued 4,147 new authorisations in 2025, bringing the operational total to 5,765, including 5,492 cultivation authorisations covering 5,318 farmers. The legally harvested area reached 3,141 hectares, according to Medias24.

In April 2026, ANRAC reported that five operators had established processing plants during 2025, with a stated combined capacity of 560 tonnes, while 11 more facilities were under construction.

The regulator also recorded 110 new cannabis-derived products in 2025, bringing the total number of registered products on the market to 141. The new registrations comprised 50 food supplements, 59 cosmetics and one medicine, highlighting the distinction between consumer-product development and pharmaceutical cannabis.

ANRAC reported that Moroccan products had reached at least seven foreign markets, although the cited figures do not establish sales by product category or export earnings.

Enforcement remains substantial. ANRAC conducted 7,526 inspections in 2025 and withdrew 111 authorisations from 90 operators, according to director-general Mohamed El Guerrouj. Further withdrawal proceedings were initiated against operators and farmers.

Unregulated cultivation also remains extensive. An April 2025 study by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime estimated total cannabis cultivation at 50,000–70,000 hectares, while Reuters cited a separate government estimate of 27,100 hectares of illicit cultivation in July 2025. The figures are not directly comparable but indicate substantial cultivation outside licensed channels.

Morocco's commercial challenge is to expand demand across its separate medicinal, industrial and consumer-product markets while making regulated supply chains attractive to established informal growers.

South Africa separates private use from commercial markets

South Africa permits private adult cannabis possession, cultivation and consumption but prohibits general recreational sales. Its licensed medicinal cannabis and industrial hemp sectors operate under separate regulatory arrangements.

A Constitutional Court ruling in September 2018 established private-use protections. President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Cannabis for Private Purposes Act in May 2024, although its provisions remained uncommenced as of October 2026.

Draft regulations published in February 2026 proposed a 750-gram possession limit and a five-plant home-cultivation limit per adult. These limits were proposals, not operative legal thresholds.

The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) regulates medicinal cannabis, while industrial hemp falls under agricultural licensing.

Government departments told Parliament in March 2026 that more than 1,400 hemp permits and approximately 120 medical cannabis licences had been issued. These figures cover different regulatory categories and cannot be combined into a single measure of commercial activity.

The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said in March 2026 that it was preparing a commercialisation policy and an overarching Cannabis Bill for introduction by mid-2027.

South Africa's unfinished recreational retail framework is therefore a separate issue from the development of its existing medicinal cannabis and industrial hemp industries.

Lesotho and Zimbabwe confront medicinal cannabis costs

Lesotho became Africa's first country to license medical cannabis in 2017, attracting foreign investment but struggling to broaden local participation because of high regulatory costs and demanding European pharmaceutical certification requirements.

Those barriers principally affect producers seeking access to regulated medicinal and pharmaceutical markets, where product standards and certification requirements differ from industrial hemp production.

Zimbabwe, which authorised medicinal cultivation in 2018, moved to reduce regulatory costs during 2026. Statutory Instrument 108 of 2026, issued in July, lowered selected fees, setting annual return charges at $1,500 and inspection fees at $400 plus inspection costs.

In August 2026, Cabinet approved further cuts covering industrial hemp registration, cannabis licensing and research permits. Implementation required additional statutory instruments. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube presented the measures as part of a broader effort to reduce business costs.

The two countries illustrate how domestic licensing expenses and international pharmaceutical compliance requirements can independently affect producers' costs.

Other African markets remain divided

Malawi permits medicinal cannabis and industrial hemp production under its Cannabis Regulation Act, 2020, while Rwanda established a medical and research-related framework in 2021.

Zambia's Cannabis Act, enacted in 2021 to cover medicinal, scientific and research production, remained uncommenced as of October 2026. Its separate Industrial Hemp Act took effect in January 2025.

Uganda permits controlled cultivation subject to official approval under narcotics legislation that came into force in April 2025. Eswatini's longstanding drugs legislation allows ministerial licensing for specified medical purposes, while broader reforms have been proposed.

Nigeria and Kenya remain more restrictive. Nigeria's National Drug Law Enforcement Agency opposes legalisation. A decriminalisation proposal failed to advance in 2023, while the Cannabis (Medical, Industrial and Control) Bill, 2025, was listed for first reading in November 2025. No comparable commercial framework had been enacted as of October 2026.

Kenya maintains a general prohibition on cultivation and use, subject to limited statutory exemptions. On July 15, 2026, the High Court dismissed a Rastafarian petition seeking a religious exemption; the petitioners' lawyers said they intended to appeal the ruling.

Different markets face different commercial tests

Africa's cannabis industries cannot be assessed as a single market. Industrial hemp producers must establish competitive cultivation and processing costs and secure buyers for industrial inputs. Medicinal cannabis producers face pharmaceutical certification, quality control and tightly regulated distribution channels. Cannabis-derived cosmetics and food supplements require product approvals, retail distribution and consumer demand.

Recreational cannabis presents a different legal and economic question. Private-use protections, as in South Africa, do not automatically establish a lawful commercial retail market.

Researchers with the Cannabis Africana project, run by the universities of Bristol and Cape Town, have warned that agribusiness-focused regulatory systems risk excluding farmers who have cultivated cannabis informally for generations.

For investors, verified turnover, export receipts and operating margins will provide a clearer measure of performance than cultivation licences or announced processing capacity. For farmers, the calculation is whether prices paid by licensed buyers cover production and compliance costs while providing dependable income.

The next stage of Africa's cannabis development will therefore depend on commercial performance within each market category, rather than treating growth in licensing and cultivation as evidence of a single expanding industry.