Opinion - If Trump loses, expect a Republican civil war

Myra Adams, Opinion Contributor
Fri, August 30, 2024 

Vice President Kamala Harris has one extraordinary campaign advantage — she is neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump.

Before President Biden dropped his reelection bid on July 21, voters were unenthusiastic about a rematch between these two men, both born before the television age. Americans desperately wanted an alternative, and party affiliation was secondary.

Thus, factors such as Biden’s element of surprise, the switch/change effect, Trump’s inability to deal with the change, rapid Democratic unification, dominant support from the media and the potential rekindling of Obama’s 2008 coalition — sprinkled with his political fairy dust of hope, joy, and “Yes, She Can” — generated considerable political momentum for Harris that might just carry her across the Nov. 5 finish line.

Based on national and battleground state polling trends, she could win in a squeaker — which means Trump could lose.

But Trump can never lose! So, if he does, expect a 2020 post-election replay with much ranting, raving and contrived evidence. Team Trump will launch accusations of a corrupt, stolen election, cheating, judicial weaponization, illegal voters, foreign interference and rigged voting machines, resulting in legal challenges perhaps all the way to the Supreme Court. Our enemies will be watching for signs of electoral instability, democratic unrest and perhaps even a national security crisis.

That aside, a Trump loss inevitably means an internal civil war within the Republican Party. I believe a “war” is inevitable between the all-powerful Trump forces and those who want to move on from the Trump era and win the White House in 2028 without any Trump family members on the ticket.

Like all civil wars, this one could be brutal, because the GOP opposition forces see in Trumpism a political dead-end with a shrinking voter base. I publicly left the Republican Party Jan. 2021 thanks to Trump’s toxic brand. Today, identifying as a Republican is not about conservative governing principles but automatic loyalty to Trump, with his MAGA troops in control of the party machinery from top to bottom.

In 2016, the “Trumplican Party” was born (some would say “hijacked.”) After Trump’s unexpected victory, Republican Party leaders and activists who initially supported someone other than Trump were purged, resigned in disgust or else acquiesced to him.

After Trump’s loss in 2020, it became an act of disloyalty for Republicans to deny that Trump actually won reelection. So did the failure to defend or excuse his actions on Jan. 6 or his legal problems. So did the act of backing an alternative 2024 candidate.

To have one family in complete control of a major national political party is an aberration in our country. Daughter-in-law Lara Trump, installed as co-chair of the Republican National Committee in March, naively spoke the truth in February when she said of its fundraising, “Every single penny will go to the number one and the only job of the RNC — that is electing Donald J. Trump as president of the United States…”

Naturally, down-ballot candidates, officeholders and lowly party officials did not appreciate her honesty about the family mission.

If Harris defeats Trump, will he step down as party leader? Probably not. Unlike Biden, Trump will not be pushed aside. Biden never was and did not represent himself as the Democratic Party. Trump and family, in contrast, are the Republican Party. Hence, moving beyond the Trump era without someone named Trump would take a tectonic shift.

Who would lead the GOP through the hazardous terrain of a non-MAGA future? It probably wouldn’t be Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who in this scenario would just be a losing also-ran.

So who would it be? Some names are familiar and obvious: Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who each look in the mirror and see a future president. Add a new name with popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who has had a contentious history with Trump — haven’t they all, though? That experience will embolden these leaders to forge a new path for the party, maybe led by one of them, or else a new leader will emerge.

Speaking of new leaders, a post-Trump era will need rising stars to combat entrenched MAGA warriors such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). How about a real warrior? A Lt. colonel in the Air National Guard who piloted missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. His name is Adam Kinzinger — once widely considered a GOP rising star — the former Illinois congressman who served from 2011 to 2023.

After the 2020 election, then-Rep. Kinzinger rejected Trump’s claims of a stolen election. He was appalled by the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and subsequently voted to impeach. Kinzinger then served on the House Select Committee to investigate the Capitol attack. Trump placed a target on his back, and Kinzinger did not run for reelection in 2022.

Then, on August 15, Kinzinger fearlessly spoke the truth about Trump to more than 20 million primetime viewers who watched the Democratic National Convention. His message delighted former Republicans like me who want a party to come home to. Kinzinger said, “Donald Trump is a weak man pretending to be strong; he is a small man pretending to be big. He’s a faithless man pretending to be righteous. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop playing the victim.”

Kinzinger dared to say what many in the Republican Party (including elected officials) only think: “The Republican Party is no longer conservative. It has switched its allegiance from the principles that gave it purpose to a man whose only purpose is himself.”

Shockingly, Fox News cut away from Kinzinger’s speech. Were they shielding their viewers from the truth? If Trump loses, those viewers and voters must hear the truth to set the Republican Party free from Trump’s control. But first, the party is destined to wage a war for the future.

Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.

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