Coffee prices driven up by heavy rainfall in world's largest grower
16.03.2026, dpa
Photo: Jens Büttner/dpa
Heavy rainfall is increasingly threatening coffee production in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, a study by the World Weather Attribution research initiative said in March.
The downpours could encourage the spread of diseases on Arabica plantations in the state of Minas Gerais and affect the harvest, the analysis said.
Brazilian coffee beans are preferred by many roasters around the world and known for their nutty and light chocolate flavour profile with a soft taste thanks to their low acidity.
However in recent years, extreme weather has led to a 15% to 20% decline in coffee production and pushed up world market prices, the World Weather Attribution analysis said.
Minas Gerais in south-eastern Brazil is the centre of Brazilian coffee production and the most important producer of Arabica coffee.
Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer overall and, according to the Brazilian coffee exporters' association Cecafé, the largest buyer imported 5.4 million 60-kilogram sacks of Brazilian coffee in 2025.
Extreme rainfall at the end of February triggered severe landslides in the region. Authorities said 72 people were killed and thousands had to leave their homes. In the city of Juiz de Fora, February was the wettest since records began, according to government data.
The devastating landslides were a taste of the years ahead: More intense heavy rainfall events are expected to become more frequent with global warming, the World Weather Attribution scientists warned.
The research initiative regularly examines the influence of climate change after extreme weather events. The researchers were unable to establish a clear influence on the latest rainfall in Brazil.
However they warned that the intensity of such rainfall would increase by an estimated 7% or more if the Earth warms by 2.6 degrees compared with pre-industrial times by the end of the century.
"The scale of this tragedy is immense and shows how vulnerable our hillside communities are as the planet continues to warm," said climate researcher Regina Rodrigues of Brazil's Federal University of Santa Catarina.
Rainfall in Brazil is not the only factor increasing coffee prices, and Vietnam, another major exporter, has also recorded declining output in recent years. At the same time demand for coffee has steadily risen in China.
According to the United Nations, the Earth is heading for 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century under current global climate policy. If countries implemented everything they have set out in their national climate plans, the calculations suggest warming of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
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