.jpeg)
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva left Washington on May 7 declaring himself "very, very satisfied" after a three-hour meeting with Donald Trump that he used to propose resolving an escalating trade dispute within 30 days, though deep disagreements on tariffs, organised crime and electoral politics remained visible beneath the surface diplomacy.
The encounter at the White House, the first bilateral meeting between the two leaders on US soil, ran well past its scheduled duration and covered trade, tariffs, critical minerals and security. Trump described it on Truth Social as having gone "very well" with his "very dynamic" counterpart, and said further meetings would be arranged over the coming months. Yet the absence of a joint Oval Office appearance – a format Trump typically relishes – underscored the limits of the rapprochement.
The two sides agreed to establish a bilateral working group, to be led by Brazil's industry and commerce minister, Márcio Elias Rosa, and US trade representative Jamieson Greer. Lula floated a 30-day deadline for the group to draft a proposal addressing the tariff dispute and a Section 301 trade investigation into Brazilian commercial practices covering digital payments, ethanol and allegations of illegal deforestation in timber exports.
"He always thinks we charge too much tax," Lula said of Trump at a press conference at the Brazilian embassy. "Whoever is wrong will give in. If we have to give in, we will. If you have to give in, then you will have to give in."
Rare earths at the centre
Critical minerals emerged as perhaps the most strategically charged item on the agenda. Brazil holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth elements — approximately 21mn tonnes, behind only China — and Washington has made supply-chain diversification a priority as it seeks alternative sources ahead of a wider confrontation with Beijing. Lula told reporters he had informed Trump that Brazil is open to investment from any interested party, explicitly declining to exclude China.
"We have no preference. What we want is to share with whoever wants to invest in Brazil," he said. "Americans, Chinese, Germans, Japanese, French, whoever wants to participate with us to help us mine, separate and produce the wealth that these rare earths offer us, they are invited."
Lula also told Trump that Brazil's lower house had approved a new national framework for critical and strategic minerals the day before his arrival, a legislation he said Brazil was treating as a matter of national sovereignty. Brazilian officials have made clear that any minerals partnership must guarantee domestic processing rather than the raw export of ore.
The position reflects a deeper strategic calculation. From Washington's perspective, Brazil's mineral wealth represents a potential lever against China's near-total dominance of rare earth processing, a dominance that remains intact regardless of where ore is mined. From Brasília's side, the minerals card is leverage to be deployed carefully: a bargaining chip in the tariff negotiations, not a gift to be handed over.
A rocky path to détente
The meeting capped a turbulent 12 months in bilateral relations. Last year Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, among the highest levied on any US trading partner, in retaliation for the prosecution of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro. A close ally of Trump's, Bolsonaro was subsequently convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison for his role in an attempted coup following his defeat in the 2022 election.
Trump subsequently reversed most of the levies, partly to ease inflationary pressure on American consumers. A subsequent Supreme Court ruling further dismantled the tariff architecture by striking down levies imposed under emergency powers.
Brazilian products still face an additional 10% tariff due to expire in July. The Section 301 investigation, whose final report is expected around the same time, represents the most consequential near-term risk for Brasília: it could provide the legal basis for a new round of tariffs if the two sides fail to reach a deal.
The limits of a good meeting
The political backdrop in both countries complicates the relationship in ways the meeting’s cordiality could not paper over. The seasoned leftist leader is seeking a fourth term in the election coming up in October, currently running neck and neck in polls with Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's senator son, who has made close ties to Washington a central plank of his campaign pitch. Congressional setbacks last week, including the lower house overriding Lula's veto of legislation reducing Bolsonaro's potential prison time, and the Senate's rejection of a Supreme Court nominee, had made the Washington visit particularly important domestically.
Yet there is nothing in the May 7 meeting that forecloses Trump from intervening in Brazil's election, whether through vocal support for the Bolsonaro camp or by pursuing a foreign terrorist organisation designation for the PCC and Comando Vermelho criminal factions, a move Brasília strongly opposes as an infringement on sovereignty. And Trump's diplomatic record offers little assurance of permanence: the same administration that welcomed Lula at the White House has demonstrated repeatedly that warm bilateral atmospherics and sharply adversarial actions can coexist, sometimes within days of each other.
The absence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Rome for the Vatican, was incidental, but it did remove from the room a figure associated with the more ideologically Bolsonarist wing of the administration, leaving the field to the economic and trade-deal-seekers on both sides.
"The United States is more important to Brazil than Brazil is to the United States," said Dawisson Belém Lopes, professor of international relations at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, according to the BBC. "So in this case, if there was a draw, it is better for Brazil."
That may be as much as the meeting ultimately delivered: a draw, and a 30-day clock Brasília is hoping will start ticking.
No comments:
Post a Comment