June 7, 2026
By P. K. Balachandran
El Nino is a periodic disturbance in the Eastern Pacific Ocean off South America, but its effects are felt acutely in many parts of the world, including Asia
On June 3, Sri Lanka’s Meteorological Department issued a warning about drought in the island during July and August this year due to El Nino. El Nino is a weather condition originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off South America. But it is so big that it affects the weather all over the world including Asia.
El Nino has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said last week. Asia is predicted to be one of the regions most exposed, with intensifying heat and drought predicted to put major stresses on agriculture, power grids and water supplies.
What is El Nino
El Nino is a natural weather fluctuation, not directly caused by climate change or global warming. Essentially, it is a short-term alteration of atmospheric pressure and wind patterns, which shifts rainfall belts and causes extreme weather events worldwide.
El Niño means the “Little Boy”, or “Christ Child” in Spanish. It was first noticed in the 1600s by Spanish fishermen off the coast of South America near Peru and Ecuador. It was so named because it typically occurred around Christmas.
The weather depends a lot on ocean temperatures. Where the ocean is warm, more clouds form, and more rain falls in that part of the world. In the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, the sun makes the water especially warm on the surface in December and El Nino follows.
Normally, the trade winds blow from East to West, pushing the warm surface waters of the Pacific Ocean towards Indonesia and the Western Pacific. This process creates a pool of warm water in the Western Pacific and a cooler pool in the Eastern Pacific near South America. But during El Nino, something different happens. The trade winds weaken, or may even reverse, causing the warm surface waters to flow back eastward towards South America instead of going to Indonesia! As a result, the eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm.
Due to the heat, many fish that live in the normally cooler waters off the coast of South America move away or die. When El Nino happens, lots of rain clouds form over the warm part of the ocean. These clouds then move inland and dump a lot of rain in South and Central America and in the United States.
Meanwhile, weather patterns all over the world may take an unusual turn. Some places may see draughtand others may see floods and storms.
Impact on India
According to “The Guardian”, the core concern is that El Nino might intensify heat conditions and weaken the oncoming monsoon, the months of heavy rain that come every year around June, which is already predicted to deliver “below average” rainfall. That would be disastrous for India and the wider subcontinent, which has already been grappling with deadly heatwaves, and an energy crisis due to the crisis in the Middle East.
A shortage of rains would prove particularly devastating for farmers, who rely on the rains for their next crop planting season. The heatwave in May has already caused damage to wheat and mustard crops and it is feared El Niño could worsen drought conditions and have a worrying effect on food security in the country.
Farmers across India are already worried about an impending shortage of fertiliser for planting, due to the Middle East crisis.
El Niño could also have severe consequences for India’s cities, most Mumbai which relies solely on seven rain-fed lakes to provide water for its more than 22 million inhabitants. The lakes currently only have 45 days of water left, and if the monsoon rainfall is delayed in El Niño conditions, Mumbai could find itself facing a significant water crisis, “The Guardian” warned.
Impact on China
China often suffers from flooding as well as droughts in the summer months. This year the challenges will be bigger as El Niño is set to cause further havoc.
On Friday, the National Climate Centre said El Niño’s effects would peak in autumn and winter, and that it could lead to increased rainfall in southern China and higher temperatures across the country. Rainfall in some parts is expected to be 20% higher than average this year, according to “Xinhua”.
Certain parts of China are expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall this week, with some areas of southern and eastern China set to see more than 200 mm of rain. Parts of Hubei province have been particularly badly hit.
Impact on South East Asia
El Nino will make South-East Asian countries vulnerable to surging temperatures that jeopardise public health, overwhelm electrical grids, and rapidly deplete vital water reserves. Countries that depend heavily on agriculture, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines are particularly vulnerable.
The region is already in the midst of energy and fertiliser shortages due to the Middle East crisis and has had to turn increasingly to dirty fuels to cover the shortfall, “The Guardian” said.
Parched soils could threaten staples, particularly rice and palm oil, and spark food shortages and inflate market prices, dealing a heavy blow to local economies and threatening the nutritional security of lower-income households.
The region’s vital tourism sector could also be affected. Famed destinations from Bangkok to Da Nang are bracing for daytime temperatures climbing well past 40 degrees, rendering outdoor attractions, cultural sites, and beaches practically unusable during peak hours.
The dry spell could also ignite agricultural and peatland fires in places like Sumatra and Kalimantan. The resulting toxic smoke plumes could blanket financial and transit hubs like Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, “The Guardian” said.
Effects On Sri Lanka
According to the Acting Director General of Meteorology, Ajith Wijemanna, current forecasts indicate an over 82% probability of El Niño conditions developing in Sri Lanka in the coming months.
“If an El Niño condition develops, rainfall is expected to decrease significantly during July and August. We are likely to experience drought conditions during that period. Forecasts currently show more than an 82% probability of an El Niño event occurring during July and August,” Wijemanna told newsmen.
He noted that El Niño events typically last between 9 to 12 months, with impacts on Sri Lanka potentially continuing until early next year. “If such an El Niño event occurs, its effects could remain until around February next year,” he warned.
The Dry Zone in Sri Lanka may see a severe drought with reduced monsoon rains. Water for irrigation could be scarce. Crops like paddy, tea could be affected. Farmers in regions like Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and Monaragala are particularly vulnerable to drought.
Since, Sri Lanka relies heavily on hydropower, reduced rainfall would mean lower water levels in major reservoirs like Castlereagh, Maussakelle, and Victoria. When these reservoirs run low, the ability to generate affordable electricity plummets, forcing reliance on more expensive and polluting thermal power.
El Nino can cause a drinking water shortage. Communities, especially those in rural areas, will face immense challenges in accessing clean water for domestic use.
Reduced agricultural output can drive up food prices, impacting household budgets across the country. Increased spending on thermal power generation would strain national finances, and the overall economic activity can slow down due to resource constraints.
Prolonged heatwaves due to El Nino can increase the risk of heatstroke, dehydration, and other heat-related illnesses. Water scarcity can also lead to poor sanitation and an increased risk of water-borne diseases.
Solutions
The website slbuilds.lk has given a list of do’s and don’ts during El Nino. Irrigation infrastructure should be improved, with leaks plugged. New water sources should be tapped. Development of new reservoirs should be undertaken. The Ministry of Agriculture should promote drought-resistant crops. Techniques like drip irrigation and precision agriculture should be promoted. Crop insurance schemes also help farmers recover from losses. Local government bodies and NGOs could urge the public to take to rainwater harvesting efficient water use practices
Steps could be taken to reduce reliance on hydropower, by going in for solar, wind and biomass. Rooftop solar power for homes and businesses, along with large-scale solar farms, should be promoted.
People should drink plenty of clean water, and keep Oral Rehydration Salts handy. They should avoid the midday sun, limit outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day to prevent heatstroke. If water is to be stored, the containers should be clean and covered to prevent contamination.
More broadly, the overall eco-system of Sri Lanka should be preserved. Forests, wetlands, and coastal areas are natural defences against extreme weather and these should be protected.
About P. K. Balachandran
P. K. Balachandran is a senior Indian journalist working in Sri Lanka for local and international media and has been writing on South Asian issues for the past 21 years.
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