As the war in Ethiopia comes to a head, opponents of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are forging an alliance for a "safe transition." A national dialogue to provide a way out of the crisis appears to be a distant prospect
In mid-October, Ethiopian army special forces were still confident of victory
"The situation in Ethiopia is currently very perilous. This is probably the most dangerous moment in the country for decades," said Murithi Mutiga, International Crisis Group Project Director for the Horn of Africa, based in Nairobi, Kenya. "The primary issue is that all sides have decided that they can settle this conflict militarily."
According to the analyst, the Tigrayan forces have gained strength. "They seem determined and try to make a decisive move that could either lead to the end of the siege in Tigray or to the collapse of the Abiy government," Mutiga told DW.
For its part, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stepped up its war rhetoric. Facing a possible advance on the capital, Addis Ababa, it is calling for a general arming of the people, as well as for all civilians to join the fight. According to observers, there have been busloads of forcibly recruited teenagers and clampdowns during which Tigrayans still staying in the capital were arrested.
In the meantime, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, has met with the prime minister in Addis Ababa. "It is essential that he, the AU and possible neighbors, at least get all parties to give talks a chance," said Mutiga.
Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region, has been repeatedly hit by airstrikes
Abiy 'can flee and go into exile'
The Ethiopian Army and troops from Tigray siding with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) party have been battling for the region in the north of the country since last November. Voluntary fighters have joined both sides. In the meantime, the TPLF has received reinforcement from the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and claims to have made territorial gains in the course of its advance on the capital.
On Friday, TPLF and OLA announced the formation of an alliance along with seven other opposition groups — with the aim of reversing "the harmful effects of the Abiy Ahmed rule" and precipitating a "safe transition" for the country.
Abiy, who was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his political reforms in Horn of Africa, imposed a state of emergency on Tuesday. He labeled TPLF leaders as terrorists, "a cancer," or "weeds." His Facebook post that called on people to "bury" advancing fighters was deleted by the social network on Thursday.
Is there any chance for negotiations between the arch enemies? Norwegian peace researcher Kjetil Tronvoll believes there isn't: "There is no negotiated takeover of power. We can expect an ongoing conflict," he told DW.
The TPLF, he added, had no interest in assuming power in Addis Abeba through political means, "but they want to topple Abiy (and achieve) a transitional agreement." Abiy's political career, Tronvoll said, was over: "He can flee and go into exile."
Experts do not believe that a quick solution to the Ethiopian conflict is possible
The will to win
The current fight was no military challenge for the troops of the Tigray regional government — they could reach Addis Abeba within a week, Tronvoll believes.
But why is the TPLF campaign so successful? Abiy, Tronvoll explains, made a mistake when he dealt with the national army, which had long been dominated by Tigrayans. "He arrested 17,000 soldiers and officers in the chain of command (of the government army) when he came to power. He incapacitated his own army. Being from the Oromo ethnic group, he could not trust them." Today, there was a lot of infighting in the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Tronvoll added.
The troops from Tigray, Tronvoll emphasizes, have a stronger fighting morale and the will to win. There is discipline in TPLF troops, who are "highly educated people, not peasants as in the resistance war. Now they are recruiting doctors and high school graduates, and they believe in their course."
In addition, the survival of their families is at stake. In the face of a situation like this, international efforts came too late and, worse still, most diplomats are unfamiliar with the complexity of Ethiopia, with the people, with the sentiment of the parties, according to Tronvoll.
Diplomacy has failed
Bayisa Wak-Woya, a former UN employee from Ethiopia, also mentions a setback in diplomacy: Many diplomats, he said, do not know enough about the different traditions and cultures of the country and were, therefore, failing in their mediation efforts. "It is very difficult to know what is happening at the war front in Ethiopia now. Transparency is a rare commoditiy in that country."
One thing, however,is certain, he believes: "Civil wars are different from wars of aggression." In the former, maintaining the state's sovereignty is a non-argument: "What are human rights violations for some is maintaining law and order for others. This makes it difficult to design a dignified exit (from the fighting) for the parties involved."
Hunger and displacement aggravate the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Tigray
What, then, is the way forward? "External powers (…) should refrain from taking sides and putting pressure on the parties in the conflict. So far the diplomatic talks failed to bear fruit, because the international community started to condemn parties. Not a good start," Wak-Woya says, who, nonetheless, is still hopeful that peace can be brought to the region.
Inner balance in disarray
Considerable efforts are being made to prepare international negotiations, according to people familiar with the situation. But discretion is of the essence here, so as not to jeopardize the prospect of successful talks. The inner balance of Ethiopia's immature political system has been in disarray for decades, ethnohistorian Wolbert Smidt, an expert on Ethiopia, tells DW.
That disarray, Smidt says, originated in the late 19th century, an era which saw Ethiopia massively expanding into neighboring regions, which were organized in completely different ways with regard to languages, ethnic groups and cultures. Today's conglomerate of regional states is lacking equality on the political level; there are extreme differences in education, wealth, access to power and recognition, accoring to Smidt.
Realistic offers to advancing troops
One symptom of those long-lasting marginalizations is the current civil war. "Talks must clarify whether there's any common ground left," Smidt says. The government is holding on to its autocratic tendencies, he believes. Now, however, clarity about the military situation is paramount, instead of forcing through reforms.
African partners believe that Ethiopia is tearing itself apart because of these internal contradictions, Smidt says. "We must now make realistic offers to the advancing troops."
Doctors in Tigray protest against a de facto blockade of medical supplies
According to Smidt, the only formula for peace is a national dialogue involving all ethnic and regional-political groups. At first, however, the guns must remain silent. "No reform, no matter how idealistic, can work if you don't integrate stakeholders of central importance."
That political process collapsed years ago. "That means that in the short term, we only have the option of stopping the war, so that a transitional government can be established. It is only on that basis that a longer civil process can be set in motion."
This article was translated from German.
Facebook whistleblower warns company is neglecting languages other than English
Facebook is taking an English-first approach in tackling "extreme" online content, whistleblower Frances Haugen told DW.
Facebook is taking an English-first approach in tackling "extreme" online content, whistleblower Frances Haugen told DW.
She warned that the current situation in Ethiopia shows how dire the consequences can be.
The role Facebook plays in fanning the flames of ethnic and political tensions shows how urgently change is needed at the social media giant, whistleblower Frances Haugen said in an interview with DW.
Haugen is a former product manager for the social media giant, which recently rebranded itself under the new name "Meta."
She is due to testify in front of a panel at the European Parliament on Monday about her disclosures on the company.
Tackling 'extreme content' in English — but less so in other languages
"One of the core things that I'm trying to draw attention to is the underinvestment in languages that aren't English," Haugen told DW.
With the company most concerned about preventing regulatory scrutiny in the United States, the English language gets the most attention in terms of adapting the company's artificial intelligence (AI) software.
"Unfortunately the most fragile places in the world are the most diverse when it comes to languages," Haugen said.
She said Facebook's current safety strategy is to use AI to catch "extreme content" and ensure it doesn't rank higher in users' feeds.
"The problem is that strategy requires us to build those AI systems over and over and over again in each language for the platform to be safe — and right now Facebook is not doing that," she explained.
Ethiopia conflict illustrates need for change
Relying on AI to help ensure public safety — and then not updating the systems in other languages — can have major, real-world consequences, the whistleblower said.
"I saw a pattern of behavior where I believed there was no chance that Facebook would be able to solve these problems in isolation," Haugen said, explaining her decision to come forward.
"I saw what I feared was going to happen continue to unfurl," she said, pointing to the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia as a more recent example.
"I knew I could never live with myself if I watched 10 million, 20 million people over the next 20 years die because of violence that was facilitated by social media," Haugen added.
Rights groups have sounded the alarm over a rise in hate speech on social media in Ethiopia amid the advance of Tigrayan forces.
Amnesty International warned that many posts "inciting violence" and using slurs against ethnic Tigrayans have "gone unchecked."
Earlier this week, Facebook removed a post by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, saying it violated the company's policies against calling for violence.
On Friday, Twitter suspended its "trends" section in Ethiopia, citing a rise in threats of physical violence.
This interview was conducted by DW political correspondent Giulia Saudelli.
The role Facebook plays in fanning the flames of ethnic and political tensions shows how urgently change is needed at the social media giant, whistleblower Frances Haugen said in an interview with DW.
Haugen is a former product manager for the social media giant, which recently rebranded itself under the new name "Meta."
She is due to testify in front of a panel at the European Parliament on Monday about her disclosures on the company.
Tackling 'extreme content' in English — but less so in other languages
"One of the core things that I'm trying to draw attention to is the underinvestment in languages that aren't English," Haugen told DW.
With the company most concerned about preventing regulatory scrutiny in the United States, the English language gets the most attention in terms of adapting the company's artificial intelligence (AI) software.
"Unfortunately the most fragile places in the world are the most diverse when it comes to languages," Haugen said.
She said Facebook's current safety strategy is to use AI to catch "extreme content" and ensure it doesn't rank higher in users' feeds.
"The problem is that strategy requires us to build those AI systems over and over and over again in each language for the platform to be safe — and right now Facebook is not doing that," she explained.
Ethiopia conflict illustrates need for change
Relying on AI to help ensure public safety — and then not updating the systems in other languages — can have major, real-world consequences, the whistleblower said.
"I saw a pattern of behavior where I believed there was no chance that Facebook would be able to solve these problems in isolation," Haugen said, explaining her decision to come forward.
"I saw what I feared was going to happen continue to unfurl," she said, pointing to the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia as a more recent example.
"I knew I could never live with myself if I watched 10 million, 20 million people over the next 20 years die because of violence that was facilitated by social media," Haugen added.
Rights groups have sounded the alarm over a rise in hate speech on social media in Ethiopia amid the advance of Tigrayan forces.
Amnesty International warned that many posts "inciting violence" and using slurs against ethnic Tigrayans have "gone unchecked."
Earlier this week, Facebook removed a post by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, saying it violated the company's policies against calling for violence.
On Friday, Twitter suspended its "trends" section in Ethiopia, citing a rise in threats of physical violence.
This interview was conducted by DW political correspondent Giulia Saudelli.
Who are the Tigray fighters, and why is Ethiopia at war with them?
A year ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military campaign against Tigray fighters, promising a quick victory. But Tigrayans managed to turn the tide. DW explains who they are and why they're fighting.
Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost region, is home to most of the country's estimated 7 million ethnic Tigrayans
Since early November 2020, the Ethiopian government and Tigray fighters have been exchanging fire in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and has left more than 400,000 people facing famine, according to a recent UN estimate.
The conflict has escalated rapidly since June, when fighters began to retake most of Tigray and expand into neighboring regions. The fighters have managed to recruit allies and are approaching the capital, Addis Ababa.
So, who are the Tigray fighters?
From militiamen to rulers
In the mid-1970s, a small group of militiamen founded the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). With a left-wing nationalist ideology, they vowed to fight for the rights of Tigrayans, a relatively small ethnic group that account for just 5% of the population and had long been marginalized by the central government.
Throughout the 1980s the TPLF emerged as a formidable challenger to Ethiopia's then Marxist military dictatorship. The group eventually led an alliance of militia organizations, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), that overthrew the Soviet Union-backed regime in 1991.
The alliance then began to run Ethiopia under a federal system, with TPLF holding sway over the other groups and dominating politics for nearly three decades.
Tigrayan leader Meles Zenawi was Ethiopia's transitional president from 1991 until poorly contested elections in 1995, when he was elected prime minister. He would go on to rule the country until his death in 2012, and was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn. During this time, Ethiopia saw economic growth, but the government clamped down on dissent.
The EPRDF government led the country through periodic drought and famine, and the 1998-2000 border war with northern neighbor Eritrea. Human rights deteriorated during this time, with opposition groups complaining of persecution and corruption, which fed into growing public discontent.
In early 2018, after several years of frequent anti-government protests from different ethnic groups had seriously damaged the legitimacy of the EPRDF government, Hailemariam stepped down. The EPRDF selected Abiy Ahmed, of the Oromo ethnic group, as his successor and he was soon elected prime minister.
Abiy, a non-Tigrayan politician with little ties to the TPLF, enjoyed widespread popularity. He unseated many Tigrayan officials, charged some with corruption and introduced a set of political reforms which sidelined the TPLF. In late 2019, Abiy disbanded the EPRDF coalition government and moved to create the new Prosperity Party (PP). Refusing to join the group, the TPLF moved back to its stronghold.
Tigrayans are Ethiopia's third-largest ethnic group
After the 2020 general election was postponed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the TPLF and some other opposition leaders accused Abiy of delaying the vote to stay in power. Despite the delay, officials in the Tigray region went ahead with regional elections in September 2020. A month later, the federal government began withholding funds from the regional administration.
In early November 2020, TPLF forces were accused of having attacked and looted federal military bases in the region. Abiy kicked off a military campaign in the Tigray region, known as Operation Law enforcement, and promised to swiftly defeat the TPLF fighters.
But since June 2021, the Ethiopian army has endured continued setbacks and has been forced to withdraw from Tigray. Now the front line is getting closer and closer to Addis Ababa, with the prime minister calling on residents to be ready to defend the capital.
The Tigray fighters might have the upper hand, but capturing Addis Ababa will not be easy. They are likely to face resistance from other Ethiopians who fear the return to power of a party that ruled the country for nearly three decades.
A year ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military campaign against Tigray fighters, promising a quick victory. But Tigrayans managed to turn the tide. DW explains who they are and why they're fighting.
Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost region, is home to most of the country's estimated 7 million ethnic Tigrayans
Since early November 2020, the Ethiopian government and Tigray fighters have been exchanging fire in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and has left more than 400,000 people facing famine, according to a recent UN estimate.
The conflict has escalated rapidly since June, when fighters began to retake most of Tigray and expand into neighboring regions. The fighters have managed to recruit allies and are approaching the capital, Addis Ababa.
So, who are the Tigray fighters?
From militiamen to rulers
In the mid-1970s, a small group of militiamen founded the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). With a left-wing nationalist ideology, they vowed to fight for the rights of Tigrayans, a relatively small ethnic group that account for just 5% of the population and had long been marginalized by the central government.
Throughout the 1980s the TPLF emerged as a formidable challenger to Ethiopia's then Marxist military dictatorship. The group eventually led an alliance of militia organizations, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), that overthrew the Soviet Union-backed regime in 1991.
The alliance then began to run Ethiopia under a federal system, with TPLF holding sway over the other groups and dominating politics for nearly three decades.
Tigrayan leader Meles Zenawi was Ethiopia's transitional president from 1991 until poorly contested elections in 1995, when he was elected prime minister. He would go on to rule the country until his death in 2012, and was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn. During this time, Ethiopia saw economic growth, but the government clamped down on dissent.
The EPRDF government led the country through periodic drought and famine, and the 1998-2000 border war with northern neighbor Eritrea. Human rights deteriorated during this time, with opposition groups complaining of persecution and corruption, which fed into growing public discontent.
In early 2018, after several years of frequent anti-government protests from different ethnic groups had seriously damaged the legitimacy of the EPRDF government, Hailemariam stepped down. The EPRDF selected Abiy Ahmed, of the Oromo ethnic group, as his successor and he was soon elected prime minister.
Abiy, a non-Tigrayan politician with little ties to the TPLF, enjoyed widespread popularity. He unseated many Tigrayan officials, charged some with corruption and introduced a set of political reforms which sidelined the TPLF. In late 2019, Abiy disbanded the EPRDF coalition government and moved to create the new Prosperity Party (PP). Refusing to join the group, the TPLF moved back to its stronghold.
Tigrayans are Ethiopia's third-largest ethnic group
After the 2020 general election was postponed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the TPLF and some other opposition leaders accused Abiy of delaying the vote to stay in power. Despite the delay, officials in the Tigray region went ahead with regional elections in September 2020. A month later, the federal government began withholding funds from the regional administration.
In early November 2020, TPLF forces were accused of having attacked and looted federal military bases in the region. Abiy kicked off a military campaign in the Tigray region, known as Operation Law enforcement, and promised to swiftly defeat the TPLF fighters.
But since June 2021, the Ethiopian army has endured continued setbacks and has been forced to withdraw from Tigray. Now the front line is getting closer and closer to Addis Ababa, with the prime minister calling on residents to be ready to defend the capital.
The Tigray fighters might have the upper hand, but capturing Addis Ababa will not be easy. They are likely to face resistance from other Ethiopians who fear the return to power of a party that ruled the country for nearly three decades.
ETHIOPIA: TIGRAY CRISIS ONE YEAR ONA city burns
No comments:
Post a Comment