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Calgary to avoid the worst of forecasted recession, economist says



Wed, October 19, 2022 

Financial experts are saying that despite the forecasted recession, Calgary and Alberta will be safe from major setbacks. (David Bell/CBC - image credit)

Calgary and the province will avoid major financial setbacks in the year ahead, despite forecasts of a global recession, an economist says.

That's due to commodity price-driven growth and the momentum of long-term diversification of Calgary and Alberta's economy.

According to Rob Roach, ATB Financial's deputy chief economist, the province's GDP is expected to grow by five per cent this year — and approximately three per cent in 2023.

"Energy and commodity prices, including agriculture, which is having a good year on that side of things, is definitely one of the main drivers of that three per cent growth in Alberta," he said.

"[It] differentiates us from other parts of the country."

Roach was among several financial experts who discussed the city's future Wednesday at the 2023 Calgary Economic Outlook, sponsored by ATB Financial.

Despite some consensus on Roach's positive outlook, Calgary won't be immune to hardships. Because of things like the Russian invasion, inflation and a rise in interest rates, he said the city will still face challenges.

"We're still going to experience those rough waters here in Alberta, but because we're doing a little bit better… we'll be able to weather that storm a little better than other places."

Growing the GDP of the province doesn't mean good news for everyone — interest rates will remain high and are predicated to continue to rise, Roach said.

"Unfortunately, it's going to get worse before it gets better," he said.

But the cost of living, coupled with the lifestyle associated with the city, has been drawing people to Calgary. It's a positive sign of things to come, said Brad Parry, president of Calgary Economic Development.

"You look at the limitless opportunities in our tech sector in the other sectors that we have, it's starting to prove that there is value to be here," he said.

"Obviously, cost of living and lifestyle itself is always a big draw for people."