‘All bets are off’: An uncertain future after Wagner mutiny
Speculation abounds on social media, but experts warn against drawing conclusions on the fate of the Wagner Group.
Wagner chief abandons mutiny, agrees to exile in Belarus
Al Jazeera
Published On 25 Jun 2023
Following Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government find themselves in unchartered territory. The crisis appears to have been averted, for now, but what happens next for Russia and the Wagner Group remains uncertain.
“All bets are off,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera on Sunday.
Published On 25 Jun 2023
Following Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government find themselves in unchartered territory. The crisis appears to have been averted, for now, but what happens next for Russia and the Wagner Group remains uncertain.
“All bets are off,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera on Sunday.
“We simply don’t have any fixed data points that we can rely on to figure out what’s going to happen next.”
The events, which began on Saturday, appeared to take everyone but the battle-hardened mercenary group by surprise. Wagner forces rapidly took control of Rostov, one of Russia’s largest cities, where they were met with minimal resistance from local security forces and occupied the regional military headquarters.
They continued to march on Moscow before Prigozhin ordered his mercenaries to turn back 200km (124 miles) from the capital. He agreed to go into exile in Belarus after brokering a deal with the country’s President Alexander Lukashenko.
The mutiny appears to be over, but the fate of the mercenary group that has proven so influential in Ukraine, as well as Syria and many African countries, remains to be seen.
The Kremlin has publicly announced aspects of the deal, including the agreement that Prigozhin will be allowed to go to Belarus without facing criminal charges.
Lukashenko’s office said the settlement contains security guarantees for Wagner troops, but details are scant and, according to Giles, confusing.
“There are too many unanswered questions around this supposed deal that they’ve arrived at, but even the questions that do seem to be being answered make no sense,” Giles said.
Joana de Deus Pereira, a senior research fellow at RUSI Europe, told Al Jazeera that it is “crucial to exercise caution and critically analyse the information” coming out of Russia in the past 24 hours.
“Nothing is what it seems, and what it seems is not frequently what it is,” she said in an email.
Public challenges of the Russian president rarely end well, with many leading critics, such as opposition figure Alexey Navalny, often ending up poisoned or dying under suspicious circumstances.
“People that cross Vladimir Putin tend to have a bad track record of falling out of windows in Russia. We’ve seen them eliminated with little fanfare and in multiple, very brutal ways,” Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group, told Al Jazeera.
This is how Russian TV covered Wagner's advance
On Saturday, in a televised speech, Putin accused Prigozhin of “betrayal” and “treason” and described his actions as “a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia”.
“All those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said, adding, “The armed forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders.”
Clarke said that Prigozhin’s deal with Belarus does not necessarily guarantee his safety.
“I don’t think Putin will shy away from exacting revenge and punishing Prigozhin if he thinks that that’s necessary, and I think he probably will,” he said.
Who is Prigozhin, the Wagner chief taking on Russia’s military?
Putin has also proven to not be very accepting of criticism of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine, and has called for a “self-purification” to rid his country of anyone who questions the invasion.
Prigozhin publicly questioned the rationale behind Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24, 2022.
“The Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO block,”, he said in a post on his Telegram channel.
Since the Lukashenko deal was struck, Putin and top Russian officials have remained tight-lipped on Prigozhin’s future.
Other leaders allied to Putin, however, have come out with criticism of the Wagner chief, including Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Deus Pereira believes that Prigozhin will “remain quiet for the next days” having left Rostov with much fanfare.
“This is one of his biggest objectives – he was recognised by the population,” she explained.
Prigozhin’s rhetoric following the deal may also have been a public relations exercise, according to Deus Pereira.
After the deal was struck, she said, Prigozhin claimed it was to avoid “Russian blood” being shed – and he projected an image of “dignity” that stood in contrast to the “manifestations of warlordism portrayed by Kadyrov”.
Wagner troops will not face charges, according to deal
The Russian government has said it will not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part in the mutiny, while those who did not join were to be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.
Prigozhin ordered his troops back to their field camps in Ukraine, where they had been fighting alongside regular Russian soldiers.
On Saturday, Russian media reported Wagner troops downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. Russia’s Defence Ministry has not commented on these events.
“While Prigozhin may be the face of the group, Wagner is a product and creation of Putin’s regime to be able to operate in several scenarios with plausible deniability. This will continue, possibly under a new name,” Deus Pereira said.
Repercussions in Africa
The events of Saturday could have major repercussions in Africa, where the mercenary group has played an increasingly central role in long-running internal conflicts.
The United States has accused the group of exploiting natural resources in Mali, the Central African Republic and elsewhere to fund fighting in Ukraine.
The group has also been accused of playing an active role in Sudan – where there is an ongoing civil war.
A suspension of Wagner operations in Africa could impact the group’s finances.
However, Clarke believes that the Wagner Group’s influence abroad could help protect it from being completely isolated by the Russian government.
“It’s not possible for the Kremlin to marginalise Wagner,” he said. “Russia and Vladimir Putin depend on and, in fact, need the Wagner Group to carry out Russian foreign policy, not just in Ukraine, but around the world, in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere.”
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
Prigozhin may be assassinated in Belarus as Putin ‘doesn’t forgive traitors’: Expert
Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a televised address in Moscow, Russia, June 24, 2023.
(Reuters)
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English
Published: 25 June ,2023
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is not yet out of danger by going to Belarus, as Russian President Vladimir Putin will never forgive a traitor, argued expert on Russia and global fellow at the Wilson Center, Jill Dougherty.
“Putin doesn’t forgive traitors. Even if Putin says, ‘Prigozhin, you go to Belarus,’ he is still a traitor and I think Putin will never forgive that,” Dougherty told CNN.
She added that it’s possible to see Prigozhin “get killed in Belarus” but it would be a tough dilemma for Moscow because as long as he “has some type of support, he is a threat, regardless of where he is.”
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Dougherty said: “If I were Putin, I would be worried about those people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagner people as they leave.”
“Why are average Russians on the street cheering people who just tried to carry out a coup? That means that maybe they support them or they like them. Whatever it is, it’s really bad news for Putin.”
In a surprising turn of events, Prigozhin’s heavily armed mercenaries withdrew from the southern city of Rostov, ceasing their swift approach towards Moscow. This shift followed a deal that guaranteed the mercenaries' safety, prompting them to return to their bases, leaving questions regarding Putin's control over the country.
Under this deal, mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin was to relocate to Belarus. Prigozhin had led Wagner on a “march for freedom” to Moscow, targeting corrupt and inept Russian commanders he held responsible for bungling the war.
After seizing Rostov, a crucial logistical hub for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they advanced northward, breaking through barricades. A late-night agreement reached on Saturday facilitated their withdrawal, reportedly marked by cheers, celebratory gunfire, and “Wagner” chants from the local populace.
As part of the deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that the charges against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, he would move to Belarus, and the Wagner fighters wouldn't face any repercussions for their actions.
This agreement was reached due to Lukashenko's offer to mediate, approved by Putin, given his long-standing personal relationship with Prigozhin. Putin, during his Saturday address, had denounced the rebellion as a threat to Russia's existence, promising severe consequences for the instigators.
With Russia revolt over, mercenaries’ future and direction of Ukraine war remain uncertain
BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS - 06/26/23
The rebellious mercenary soldiers who briefly took over a Russian military headquarters on an ominous march toward Moscow were gone Sunday, but the short-lived revolt has weakened President Vladimir Putin just as his forces are facing a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine.
Under terms of the agreement that ended the crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his Wagner troops in the failed uprising, will go into exile in Belarus but will not face prosecution.
But it was unclear what would ultimately happen to him and his forces. Few details of the deal were released either by the Kremlin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered it. Neither Prigozhin nor Putin has been heard from, and top Russian military leaders have also remained silent.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend’s events as “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine and now he has had to defend Moscow from forces led by his onetime protege.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”
It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: the Wagner troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin’s only land victory in months, in Bakhmut, and Chechen soldiers sent to stop them on the approach to Moscow.
The Wagner forces’ largely unopposed, rapid advance also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military forces. The mercenary soldiers were reported to have downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Defense Ministry has not commented.
“I honestly think that Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the past three weeks,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the CNA research group, said in a podcast.
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting could create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
“Putin is much diminished and the Russian military, and this is significant as far as Ukraine is concerned,” said Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff of the British armed forces. “… Prigozhin has left the stage to go to Belarus, but is that the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?”
Under terms of the agreement that stopped Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner troops who didn’t back the revolt will be offered contracts directly with the Russian military, putting them under the control of the military brass that Prigozhin was trying to oust. A possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do it.
“What we don’t know, but will discover in the next hours and days is, how many of his fighters have gone with him, because if he has gone to Belarus and kept an effective fighting force around him, then he … presents a threat again” to Ukraine, Dannatt said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he told U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call on Sunday that the aborted rebellion in Russia had “exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime.”
In their lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces on Saturday took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and got within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow before retreating.
People in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they departed late Saturday, a scene that played into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away in an SUV.
Yet the rebellion fizzled quickly, in part because Prigozhin did not have the backing he apparently expected from Russian security services. The Federal Security Services immediately called for his arrest.
“Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve,” retired U.S. Gen. David Petraeus, a former CIA director, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would.”
Rostov appeared calm Sunday morning, with only tank tracks on the roads as a reminder of the Wagner fighters.
“It all ended perfectly well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said a resident, who agreed only to provide his first name, Sergei. He said the Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, but not now.
In the Lipetsk region, which sits on the road to Moscow, residents appeared unfazed by the turmoil.
“They did not disrupt anything. They stood calmly on the pavement and did not approach or talk to anyone,” Milena Gorbunova told the AP.
As Wagner forces moved north toward Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired roads ripped up just hours earlier in panic.
Anchors on state-controlled television stations cast the deal ending the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom and aired footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People there who were interviewed by Channel 1 praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.
But the revolt and the deal that ended it severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
Prigozhin had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin has long criticized in withering terms for how he has conducted the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time. That conflicts with Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military that he said killed a large number of his men. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.
U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said Prigozhin’s march on Moscow appeared to have been planned in advance.
“Now, being a military guy, he understands the logistics and really the assistance that he’s going to need to do that,” including from some Russians on the border with Ukraine who supported him, Turner said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
“This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner in which it was,” he said.
___
This story has been edited to correct the spelling of Zelenskyy’s first name, to fix AP style on Belarusian and correct the name of the CNA research group.
___
Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London, and Nomaan Merchant in Washington, contributed to this report.
___
Follow AP coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war
The rebellious mercenary soldiers who briefly took over a Russian military headquarters on an ominous march toward Moscow were gone Sunday, but the short-lived revolt has weakened President Vladimir Putin just as his forces are facing a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine.
Under terms of the agreement that ended the crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his Wagner troops in the failed uprising, will go into exile in Belarus but will not face prosecution.
But it was unclear what would ultimately happen to him and his forces. Few details of the deal were released either by the Kremlin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered it. Neither Prigozhin nor Putin has been heard from, and top Russian military leaders have also remained silent.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend’s events as “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine and now he has had to defend Moscow from forces led by his onetime protege.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”
It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: the Wagner troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin’s only land victory in months, in Bakhmut, and Chechen soldiers sent to stop them on the approach to Moscow.
The Wagner forces’ largely unopposed, rapid advance also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military forces. The mercenary soldiers were reported to have downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Defense Ministry has not commented.
“I honestly think that Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the past three weeks,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the CNA research group, said in a podcast.
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting could create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
“Putin is much diminished and the Russian military, and this is significant as far as Ukraine is concerned,” said Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff of the British armed forces. “… Prigozhin has left the stage to go to Belarus, but is that the end of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?”
Under terms of the agreement that stopped Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner troops who didn’t back the revolt will be offered contracts directly with the Russian military, putting them under the control of the military brass that Prigozhin was trying to oust. A possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do it.
“What we don’t know, but will discover in the next hours and days is, how many of his fighters have gone with him, because if he has gone to Belarus and kept an effective fighting force around him, then he … presents a threat again” to Ukraine, Dannatt said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he told U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call on Sunday that the aborted rebellion in Russia had “exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime.”
In their lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces on Saturday took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and got within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow before retreating.
People in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they departed late Saturday, a scene that played into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away in an SUV.
Yet the rebellion fizzled quickly, in part because Prigozhin did not have the backing he apparently expected from Russian security services. The Federal Security Services immediately called for his arrest.
“Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve,” retired U.S. Gen. David Petraeus, a former CIA director, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would.”
Rostov appeared calm Sunday morning, with only tank tracks on the roads as a reminder of the Wagner fighters.
“It all ended perfectly well, thank God. With minimal casualties, I think. Good job,” said a resident, who agreed only to provide his first name, Sergei. He said the Wagner soldiers used to be heroes to him, but not now.
In the Lipetsk region, which sits on the road to Moscow, residents appeared unfazed by the turmoil.
“They did not disrupt anything. They stood calmly on the pavement and did not approach or talk to anyone,” Milena Gorbunova told the AP.
As Wagner forces moved north toward Moscow, Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the outskirts. By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired roads ripped up just hours earlier in panic.
Anchors on state-controlled television stations cast the deal ending the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom and aired footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov to the relief of local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city. People there who were interviewed by Channel 1 praised Putin’s handling of the crisis.
But the revolt and the deal that ended it severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
Prigozhin had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin has long criticized in withering terms for how he has conducted the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time. That conflicts with Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military that he said killed a large number of his men. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.
U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said Prigozhin’s march on Moscow appeared to have been planned in advance.
“Now, being a military guy, he understands the logistics and really the assistance that he’s going to need to do that,” including from some Russians on the border with Ukraine who supported him, Turner said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
“This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner in which it was,” he said.
___
This story has been edited to correct the spelling of Zelenskyy’s first name, to fix AP style on Belarusian and correct the name of the CNA research group.
___
Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London, and Nomaan Merchant in Washington, contributed to this report.
___
Follow AP coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war
Prigozhin Rising Classic Example of Mafia Wars, Nevzlin Says
Staunton, June 25 – When situations are murky and perhaps especially when they involve someone analysts have gotten used to thinking is more in control of the situation than in fact is the case, there is a great danger of overthinking the situation and constructing epicycles where none is needed instead of drawing conclusions based solely on the evidence.
To a certain extent, that is what has happened in response to the clash between Putin and Prigozhin over the last 24 hours. But by applying Occam’s razor, Israeli-based Russian businessman and commentator Leonid Nevzlin cuts through the plethora of analytic perspectives being offered (gordonua.com/blogs/leonid-nevzlin/v-rossii-klassika-mafioznyh-voyn-kak-tolko-boss-oslab-vsegda-vyhodit-vperyod-tot-kto-molozhe-agressivnee-zlee-i-hochet-vyrvat-vlast-1670220.html).
He argues that what has just happened need not be explained by any reference to grand politics but rather by the imperatives of mafia wars, given that the Putin regime itself is less a state in the usual sense than a criminal enterprise. Indeed, Nevzlin argues, what has just happened is “a classic example” of what mafia wars are like.
“As soon as the boss is weakened” – and Putin has been by age, time in office and mistaken decisions – someone “younger, more aggressive, angrier and desirous of power invariably comes forward” and the situation moves toward a showdown, one that may last for some time but reflects the mafia nature of the Russian state.
From this perspective, Nevzlin says, “Prigorzhin’s rebellion isn’t so much sudden and out of nowhere but rather something that is entirely natural. Putin has shown weakness in Ukraine; now he has demonstrated the same shortcoming in his own country.” His desire to escape from this situation with his life may make even a cell at the Hague look like a good choice.
NATO needs to strengthen eastern flank if Prigozhin is in Belarus: Lithuania
Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda gives a press conference following his meeting with France’s president at the Elysee Palace in Paris on May 24, 2023. (AFP)
AFP
Published: 25 June ,2023:
Lithuania’s president warned Sunday that if Belarus is to host Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin then NATO will need to strengthen its eastern flank.
The head of state, whose Baltic country neighbors both Belarus and Russia and will host next month’s NATO summit, spoke after a state security council meeting to discuss Wagner’s aborted revolt against the Kremlin.
After Prigozhin called off his troops’ advance on Saturday, Moscow said the Wagner chief would leave Russia for Belarus and would not face charges.
“If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told reporters.
“I am not only talking about Lithuania here, but without a doubt the whole of NATO,” he said.
Nauseda added that Lithuania will devote more intelligence capabilities to assessing the “political and security aspects of Belarus.”
Lithuania will host next month’s NATO summit, and Nauseda said the general security plan for the meeting does not require changes following the Russian developments.
He said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin could face even greater challenges in the future, adding: “The king is naked.”
The Wagner rebellion marked the biggest challenge yet to Putin’s long rule and Russia’s most serious security crisis since he came to power in 1999.
Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda gives a press conference following his meeting with France’s president at the Elysee Palace in Paris on May 24, 2023. (AFP)
AFP
Published: 25 June ,2023:
Lithuania’s president warned Sunday that if Belarus is to host Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin then NATO will need to strengthen its eastern flank.
The head of state, whose Baltic country neighbors both Belarus and Russia and will host next month’s NATO summit, spoke after a state security council meeting to discuss Wagner’s aborted revolt against the Kremlin.
After Prigozhin called off his troops’ advance on Saturday, Moscow said the Wagner chief would leave Russia for Belarus and would not face charges.
“If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told reporters.
“I am not only talking about Lithuania here, but without a doubt the whole of NATO,” he said.
Nauseda added that Lithuania will devote more intelligence capabilities to assessing the “political and security aspects of Belarus.”
Lithuania will host next month’s NATO summit, and Nauseda said the general security plan for the meeting does not require changes following the Russian developments.
He said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin could face even greater challenges in the future, adding: “The king is naked.”
The Wagner rebellion marked the biggest challenge yet to Putin’s long rule and Russia’s most serious security crisis since he came to power in 1999.
TOLD YA SO
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s strange march to Moscow and backBY MARK TOTH AND JONATHAN SWEET, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS - 06/24/23
In May, we predicted in these pages that Bakhmut would ultimately prove to be divisive, not decisive terrain for Russia. By vainly obsessing over the small mining town, Russian President Vladimir Putin was risking a massive rift between his regular military and mercenary ground forces.
Yesterday and overnight, in a series of stunning events, our prediction came true, albeit on an even larger scale than we had anticipated.
Its beginning was innocuous enough. Prigozhin, well known for his bluster and ongoing war of words against Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, furiously accused the Russian military of deliberately shelling and killing his Wagner Group paramilitary forces while they were stationed at the rear, being held in reserve for the war in Ukraine. Seemingly, that was just one more potshot at Shoigu.
But this time, Shoigu fired back. TASS, Russia’s official state-controlled news agency, quoted an unnamed Ministry of Defense spokesperson declaring, “The information spread on social networks about the attack by the Russian Armed Forces on the “rear camps of PMC “Wagner” is false.”
Yet that was not the end of it, as most observers foresaw.
Suddenly and unexpectedly, TASS sternly announced that the FSB had “initiated a criminal case,” accusing Prigozhin’s “statements” as being tantamount to “invocation of armed rebellion.” This clearly was no longer business as usual between Prigozhin and Shoigu.
Even so, by late Friday afternoon, the dispute was still largely confined to a personal feud between Prigozhin and Shoigu. Putin himself had yet to weigh in. The Kremlin’s only reaction at that point to the FSB issuing an arrest warrant for Prigozhin came from Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov who confirmed that “Putin is aware of the situation.”
Prigozhin seemed to be operating under the assumption that he was in open rebellion only against Shoigu and Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov. His forces marched on Rostov-on-Don and occupied the city’s military command headquarters, seizing effective control of the key Russian military supply city for the war effort in Ukraine.
The man formerly known as “Putin’s chef” seemingly avoided targeting Putin by name and only directed his ire at Shoigu and Gerasimov, while demanding their surrender either in Rostov-on-Don or in Moscow, if necessary. Thus far, at least in terms of plausible deniability, Prigozhin was involved in mutiny but not rebellion.
Putin’s taped speech, however, changed all that, turning mutiny into civil war. The Russian president accused Prigozhin of “betrayal” and characterized his actions as “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” Putin then piled on, calling it “treason” and vowed that those who “have betrayed Russia” would “be held accountable.”
Prigozhin, via his AP Wagner Telegram channel, quickly fired back. This time, in addition to Shoigu and Gerasimov, Putin was squarely in his crosshairs as well. Prigozhin defiantly said that the Russian president “had made the wrong choice. That’s worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
Elements of Prigozhin’s paramilitary forces were soon on the move northward from Rostov-on-Don. Their “march of justice” along the 675-mile road to Moscow rapidly reached Voronezh, a town only 325 miles south of the red crenelated walls of the Kremlin.
Moscow found itself in a panic. Improvised roadblocks were thrown up around the capital city and the Rosgvardiya — Russia’s home guard, entirely controlled by Putin — was quickly deployed. Various unconfirmed reports speculated on Telegram that Moscow had enacted its seldom used “Krepost Plan,” which allows law enforcement to secure key government sites, including FSB headquarters.
Putin reportedly fled Moscow. Forces in the largely immune wartime capital of Russia found themselves preparing to fight a very hot civil war battle against Prigozhin’s forces. And Prigozhin’s road trip to Moscow had met little organized resistance other than purported Russian air strikes. The few obstacles that were erected — buses and garbage trucks — were easily tossed aside by Prigozhin’s armored units proceeding up the M4 highway toward the capital.
The road to Moscow at this point appeared wide open. Or so it seemed until Prigozhin, in a moment of Kabuki theater organized by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, suddenly reversed course and ordered his marching troops back to Rostov-on-Don.
In an announcement that first reported by Belta, a Belarusian state-controlled news agency, Prigozhin claimed he had come within 124 miles of Moscow, only to turn back. Even as we write this, there are now reports that Prigozhin’s forces are preparing to leave Rostov-on-Don. Where they are going is not yet clear.
Prigozhin either had no real plan to seize and control Moscow — and arguably, 25,000 troops stretched from Rostov-on-Don to the capital city would not be enough — or he exacted the concessions he wanted from Putin.
In May, we predicted in these pages that Bakhmut would ultimately prove to be divisive, not decisive terrain for Russia. By vainly obsessing over the small mining town, Russian President Vladimir Putin was risking a massive rift between his regular military and mercenary ground forces.
Yesterday and overnight, in a series of stunning events, our prediction came true, albeit on an even larger scale than we had anticipated.
Its beginning was innocuous enough. Prigozhin, well known for his bluster and ongoing war of words against Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, furiously accused the Russian military of deliberately shelling and killing his Wagner Group paramilitary forces while they were stationed at the rear, being held in reserve for the war in Ukraine. Seemingly, that was just one more potshot at Shoigu.
But this time, Shoigu fired back. TASS, Russia’s official state-controlled news agency, quoted an unnamed Ministry of Defense spokesperson declaring, “The information spread on social networks about the attack by the Russian Armed Forces on the “rear camps of PMC “Wagner” is false.”
Yet that was not the end of it, as most observers foresaw.
Suddenly and unexpectedly, TASS sternly announced that the FSB had “initiated a criminal case,” accusing Prigozhin’s “statements” as being tantamount to “invocation of armed rebellion.” This clearly was no longer business as usual between Prigozhin and Shoigu.
Even so, by late Friday afternoon, the dispute was still largely confined to a personal feud between Prigozhin and Shoigu. Putin himself had yet to weigh in. The Kremlin’s only reaction at that point to the FSB issuing an arrest warrant for Prigozhin came from Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov who confirmed that “Putin is aware of the situation.”
Prigozhin seemed to be operating under the assumption that he was in open rebellion only against Shoigu and Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov. His forces marched on Rostov-on-Don and occupied the city’s military command headquarters, seizing effective control of the key Russian military supply city for the war effort in Ukraine.
The man formerly known as “Putin’s chef” seemingly avoided targeting Putin by name and only directed his ire at Shoigu and Gerasimov, while demanding their surrender either in Rostov-on-Don or in Moscow, if necessary. Thus far, at least in terms of plausible deniability, Prigozhin was involved in mutiny but not rebellion.
Putin’s taped speech, however, changed all that, turning mutiny into civil war. The Russian president accused Prigozhin of “betrayal” and characterized his actions as “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” Putin then piled on, calling it “treason” and vowed that those who “have betrayed Russia” would “be held accountable.”
Prigozhin, via his AP Wagner Telegram channel, quickly fired back. This time, in addition to Shoigu and Gerasimov, Putin was squarely in his crosshairs as well. Prigozhin defiantly said that the Russian president “had made the wrong choice. That’s worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
Elements of Prigozhin’s paramilitary forces were soon on the move northward from Rostov-on-Don. Their “march of justice” along the 675-mile road to Moscow rapidly reached Voronezh, a town only 325 miles south of the red crenelated walls of the Kremlin.
Moscow found itself in a panic. Improvised roadblocks were thrown up around the capital city and the Rosgvardiya — Russia’s home guard, entirely controlled by Putin — was quickly deployed. Various unconfirmed reports speculated on Telegram that Moscow had enacted its seldom used “Krepost Plan,” which allows law enforcement to secure key government sites, including FSB headquarters.
Putin reportedly fled Moscow. Forces in the largely immune wartime capital of Russia found themselves preparing to fight a very hot civil war battle against Prigozhin’s forces. And Prigozhin’s road trip to Moscow had met little organized resistance other than purported Russian air strikes. The few obstacles that were erected — buses and garbage trucks — were easily tossed aside by Prigozhin’s armored units proceeding up the M4 highway toward the capital.
The road to Moscow at this point appeared wide open. Or so it seemed until Prigozhin, in a moment of Kabuki theater organized by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, suddenly reversed course and ordered his marching troops back to Rostov-on-Don.
In an announcement that first reported by Belta, a Belarusian state-controlled news agency, Prigozhin claimed he had come within 124 miles of Moscow, only to turn back. Even as we write this, there are now reports that Prigozhin’s forces are preparing to leave Rostov-on-Don. Where they are going is not yet clear.
Prigozhin either had no real plan to seize and control Moscow — and arguably, 25,000 troops stretched from Rostov-on-Don to the capital city would not be enough — or he exacted the concessions he wanted from Putin.
But at what price? Putin is unlikely to forgive Prigozhin. If a deal was made, it likely will only be a matter of time until the Wagner Group founder finds himself falling out of a window or drinking the wrong cup of tea. Or perhaps, if Prigozhin survives, he will be forced to decamp to one of his Wagner Group bases in Africa, where the bulk of his cash flow is derived from such activities as the theft of gold from Sudan and the Central African Republic.
Only one thing is certain now. We have not yet seen the last of Prigozhin, even though Putin likely still wants him dead or behind bars.
Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis. Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army Colonel and 30-year military intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.
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