Reuters
Updated Mon, March 25, 2024
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia's security state has been ruthlessly effective at detaining Vladimir Putin's opponents but was caught off guard by a mass shooting near Moscow, raising questions about its priorities, resources and intelligence gathering.
Charged with hunting down Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia, with keeping anti-Kremlin activists in check, and with disrupting the operations of hostile foreign intelligence agencies, the FSB, the main successor agency to the Soviet-era KGB, has its hands full.
That, say former U.S. intelligence officials and Western security analysts, helps explain why it may have overlooked other threats, including that posed by Islamist militants, such as ISIS-K, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
“You can’t do everything,” Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA operations officer who served as the agency’s Moscow station chief, told Reuters.
“You dial up the pressure on the locals and sometimes you don’t get the intelligence you need on a potential terrorist attack. That’s where they failed.
"It’s possible they’re overextended dealing with the war in Ukraine and dealing with political opposition. This one slipped through the cracks.”
The FSB has said Friday's concert hall attack was "painstakingly" planned and that the gunmen had carefully hidden their weapons.
Putin on Monday said that radical Islamists were the ones who had carried out the attack, but said that Russia still wanted to understand who had ordered it and said there were many questions for Ukraine to answer. Ukraine denies any involvement.
When asked on Monday if the assault represented an intelligence service failure, the Kremlin said that Russia's standoff with the West meant intelligence-sharing was not happening in the way it used to.
"Unfortunately, our world shows that no city, no country can be completely immune from the threat of terrorism," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russia's intelligence services worked tirelessly to defend the country, he added.
Still, Friday's shooting, in which at least 139 people were killed and 180 injured, has undermined one of Putin's longstanding pledges to the Russian people: to ensure stability and security.
It has also shaken some residents of the Russian capital who have largely been insulated from the violence of the Ukraine war despite occasional drone strikes.
Putin, a former KGB officer who won another six years in power earlier this month, has weathered similar crises before and there is no visible threat to his grip on power now.
His response, judging from his previous behaviour and a statement on Saturday, will be to meet force with greater force.
Four of 11 men detained in connection with the attack have been charged with terrorism and appeared in court after being interrogated: one apparently with his ear missing and one in a wheelchair amid calls from some lawmakers for the death penalty to be re-introduced. Peskov declined to answer a journalist's question about whether they had been tortured.
MISSED WARNINGS?
Whether the men were tasked by Islamic State as the militant group and the West asserts, or whether there may have been some kind of Ukrainian connection as Putin has hinted - and Kyiv has flatly denied - there were warning signs which do not appear to have been heeded.
Security analysts said the manner in which the attack and escape were carried out was evidence of extensive reconnaissance of the venue beforehand and Russian media published CCTV footage of one of the gunmen visiting at an earlier date.
On March 7, the U.S. embassy in Moscow issued a security alert to Americans, telling them it was "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts".
On March 19, three days before the killing spree, Putin delivered a speech to FSB chiefs in which he dismissed what he said were "provocative" Western warnings about a terrorist act.
"All these actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilise our society," said Putin.
Nina Krushcheva, a professor of international affairs at The New School in New York, said the FSB appeared to have had Islamic State on its radar.
But she said Putin's view that Russia was locked in an existential struggle with a U.S-led West would have made it difficult for Moscow to take at face value a security warning from the United States.
"There's a lot of mistrust. It's not like America isn't involved in misinformation," she said.
"In Putin's world, where it is an existential battle between Russia and the West that wants to undermine Russia and demolish it, of course he wouldn't believe it because how does he know from his own KGB background that America is not creating its own false flag (operation)."
A false flag operation is an act committed with the intent of disguising the source of responsibility to pin blame on another party.
ISLAMIC STATE
John Sipher, who served a stint in Russia during his career in the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, said he believed the FSB may have dropped the ball because it was too busy focusing on political and other threats to Putin and his government.
“The (security services) are more about protecting the Kremlin than they are about protecting the people,” said Sipher, who predicted that Putin would now use the attack to justify some new action or against the West and Ukraine.
Another warning came on March 2 in southern Russia when FSB special forces killed six gunmen whom they identified as members of Islamic State.
Three of the men were on a federal wanted list and the militants had killed three policemen the previous year. The FSB found a weapons stash.
On March 7, the FSB said it had prevented an attack on a synagogue in Moscow that had been plotted by an Islamic State cell and that the attackers had been killed in a shootout.
Riccardo Valle, a researcher on jihadist movements, said the March 2 incident should have set off warning lights.
"I think the fact the security forces discovered that there is a network of Islamic State in Russia, and a strong one capable of acquiring weapons and putting up strong resistance against special forces - this should have raised the alarm in Moscow security agencies," Valle said in a phone interview.
"Maybe it did but they were not able to prevent the attack in time," said Valle, director of research at the Islamabad-based research and news platform The Khorasan Diary.
He said it was also clear from previous statements and attacks by ISIS-K, including on the Russian embassy in Kabul in 2022, that the group had Russia in its sights.
(Editing by Alison Williams)
Russia blames Kyiv, West over Moscow gun attack
AFP
Tue, March 26, 2024
Russia on Tuesday sought to shift blame for the Moscow concert hall attack onto Ukraine and its Western backers, despite the Islamic State group claiming responsibility for the massacre of at least 139 people.
The Kremlin's security services have been scrambling to explain how gunmen on Friday managed to carry out the worst attack in Russia in over two decades.
President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that "radical Islamists" conducted the bloody assault, but suggested they were linked to Ukraine, two years into the Kremlin's offensive on the country.
The head of Russia's FSB security agency Alexander Bortnikov said Tuesday that while those who had "ordered" the attack had not been identified, the assailants were heading to Ukraine and would have been "greeted as heroes".
"We believe the action was prepared both by the radical Islamists themselves and, of course, facilitated by Western special services, and Ukraine's special services themselves have a direct connection to this," Bortnikov was cited as saying by Russian news agencies.
Ukraine has fiercely rejected any accusations from Moscow that it was tied to the assault, with a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky saying the Kremlin was looking to cover up the "incompetence" of its intelligence agencies.
- Belarus undermines Kremlin narrative -
Russia's closest international ally, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, appeared to undermine the Kremlin's main narrative -- saying that the attackers tried to enter his country first before heading to Ukraine.
"There was no way they could enter Belarus. They saw that. That's why they turned away and went to the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border," he said.
The Kremlin has expressed confidence in the country's powerful security agencies, despite questions swirling over how they failed to thwart the massacre after public and private warnings from the United States.
Islamic State jihadists have said several times since Friday that they were responsible, and IS-affiliated media channels have published graphic videos of the gunmen inside the venue.
French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said Paris had information that the jihadists were responsible and warned Russia against exploiting the attack to blame Ukraine.
The concert hall massacre was a major blow for Putin just over a week after he claimed a new term after one-sided elections the Kremlin billed as an endorsement of his military operation against Ukraine.
Putin on Monday said for the first time that "radical Islamists" were behind last week's attack, but sought to tie it to Kyiv.
Without providing any evidence, Putin connected the attack at Crocus City Hall to a series of incursions into Russian territory by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups, and said they were all part of efforts to "sow panic in our society".
- Eighth suspect remanded -
A court in Moscow meanwhile on Tuesday remanded an eighth suspect in custody over the attack at the Moscow concert hall.
Moscow earlier announced it had detained 11 people in connection with the attack, which saw camouflaged gunmen storm into Crocus City Hall, open fire on concert-goers and set the building ablaze.
The court's press service said the latest suspect to be remanded was a man originally from the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan.
Officials said he was ordered to be held in detention until at least May 22, without detailing the exact accusations against him.
Four men charged on Sunday with carrying out the attack are citizens of Tajikistan, also in mainly Muslim Central Asia.
Three more suspects -- reportedly from the same family and including at least one Russian citizen -- were charged on terror-related offences on Monday.
A Turkish official said two of the Tajik suspects had travelled "freely between Russia and Turkey" ahead of the attack.
The two had both spent time in Turkey shortly before the attack and entered Russia together on the same flight from Istanbul, the official said.
All of those held in custody have been charged with terrorism and face up to life in prison.
The Kremlin has so far pushed back at suggestions the death penalty will be re-introduced after the attack.
Much of Putin's inner circle thinks Ukraine had nothing to do with the Moscow terror attack, badly undermining him, report says
Tue, March 26, 2024
Russia on Tuesday sought to shift blame for the Moscow concert hall attack onto Ukraine and its Western backers, despite the Islamic State group claiming responsibility for the massacre of at least 139 people.
The Kremlin's security services have been scrambling to explain how gunmen on Friday managed to carry out the worst attack in Russia in over two decades.
President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that "radical Islamists" conducted the bloody assault, but suggested they were linked to Ukraine, two years into the Kremlin's offensive on the country.
The head of Russia's FSB security agency Alexander Bortnikov said Tuesday that while those who had "ordered" the attack had not been identified, the assailants were heading to Ukraine and would have been "greeted as heroes".
"We believe the action was prepared both by the radical Islamists themselves and, of course, facilitated by Western special services, and Ukraine's special services themselves have a direct connection to this," Bortnikov was cited as saying by Russian news agencies.
Ukraine has fiercely rejected any accusations from Moscow that it was tied to the assault, with a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky saying the Kremlin was looking to cover up the "incompetence" of its intelligence agencies.
- Belarus undermines Kremlin narrative -
Russia's closest international ally, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, appeared to undermine the Kremlin's main narrative -- saying that the attackers tried to enter his country first before heading to Ukraine.
"There was no way they could enter Belarus. They saw that. That's why they turned away and went to the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border," he said.
The Kremlin has expressed confidence in the country's powerful security agencies, despite questions swirling over how they failed to thwart the massacre after public and private warnings from the United States.
Islamic State jihadists have said several times since Friday that they were responsible, and IS-affiliated media channels have published graphic videos of the gunmen inside the venue.
French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said Paris had information that the jihadists were responsible and warned Russia against exploiting the attack to blame Ukraine.
The concert hall massacre was a major blow for Putin just over a week after he claimed a new term after one-sided elections the Kremlin billed as an endorsement of his military operation against Ukraine.
Putin on Monday said for the first time that "radical Islamists" were behind last week's attack, but sought to tie it to Kyiv.
Without providing any evidence, Putin connected the attack at Crocus City Hall to a series of incursions into Russian territory by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups, and said they were all part of efforts to "sow panic in our society".
- Eighth suspect remanded -
A court in Moscow meanwhile on Tuesday remanded an eighth suspect in custody over the attack at the Moscow concert hall.
Moscow earlier announced it had detained 11 people in connection with the attack, which saw camouflaged gunmen storm into Crocus City Hall, open fire on concert-goers and set the building ablaze.
The court's press service said the latest suspect to be remanded was a man originally from the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan.
Officials said he was ordered to be held in detention until at least May 22, without detailing the exact accusations against him.
Four men charged on Sunday with carrying out the attack are citizens of Tajikistan, also in mainly Muslim Central Asia.
Three more suspects -- reportedly from the same family and including at least one Russian citizen -- were charged on terror-related offences on Monday.
A Turkish official said two of the Tajik suspects had travelled "freely between Russia and Turkey" ahead of the attack.
The two had both spent time in Turkey shortly before the attack and entered Russia together on the same flight from Istanbul, the official said.
All of those held in custody have been charged with terrorism and face up to life in prison.
The Kremlin has so far pushed back at suggestions the death penalty will be re-introduced after the attack.
Much of Putin's inner circle thinks Ukraine had nothing to do with the Moscow terror attack, badly undermining him, report says
Mia Jankowicz
Wed, March 27, 2024
Putin's inner circle isn't buying his claim that Kyiv is connected to the Moscow terror attack, Bloomberg reported.
Putin continues to say that Ukraine had a role in the attack, which was claimed by ISIS-K.
He thinks that pushing the theory is beneficial for galvanizing support for his war, per Bloomberg.
Many Kremlin insiders disagree with President Vladimir Putin's claims that Ukraine may be connected to last Friday's terror attack in Moscow, Bloomberg reported.
While Putin and some of his followers continue to publicly push the idea of Ukraine's role in the attack, behind the scenes few people in Moscow's top business and political circles support the theory, insiders told the outlet.
Ukraine has denied any connection to the attack, and no credible evidence has emerged for its involvement.
On Friday, armed attackers stormed the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, opening fire and killing at least 137 people during a rock concert. ISIS-K, a terror group based in Afghanistan, claimed responsibility.
Four suspects, who appeared in court on Sunday, were described in Russian state media as coming from Tajikistan.
Addressing the nation the day after the attack, Putin said that Ukraine had provided the attackers with an escape route at its border.
Making no mention of ISIS-K, he said: "They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border," NPR reported.
On Monday, Putin switched to blaming ISIS-K for the attack, but continued to allude to a Ukrainian connection.
"The United States, through various channels, is trying to convince its satellites and other countries of the world that, according to their intelligence data, there is supposedly no Kyiv trace in the Moscow terrorist attack," he said, according to CNBC.
But Putin's narrative was undermined even by Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko, a close ally, who said that the suspects had first tried to go to his country.
"There was no chance they could enter Belarus," he said, according to the state-run Belarusian Telegraph Agency. "So they took a turn and headed to the Ukraine-Russia border."
According to Bloomberg, Putin has been confronted with his inner circle's doubts.
Citing a person with knowledge of the situation, the outlet reported that Putin was in a meeting where officials agreed that Ukraine had no connection to the attack.
Even so, Putin was committed to the idea that it would help mobilize support for the war there, the person reportedly said.
Putin loyalists have continued to advance the theory without presenting any evidence.
Alexander Bortnikov, director of Russia's FSB security service, said on television that he believed Islamist radicals were aided by Western special services, and that "the special services of Ukraine are directly related to this," Reuters reported.
Asked whether ISIS or Ukraine was responsible, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's security council, said it was Ukraine, adding later that there were "many" indications of Kyiv's involvement, per Reuters.
Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the FSB and Russian intelligence, told Bloomberg that Russia's security services "know this was Islamic State, but after Putin's remarks they have no choice but to follow orders and prove that there was Ukrainian or Western involvement."
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