Extraversion is declining in Japan: Evidence for the "inward-looking" trend that existed as a discourse

Aoyama Gakuin University

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Figure 1. Changes in Extraversion of Japanese People (2010-2021)

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Credit: Ryonosuke Akimoto, Yuji Ogihara

Highlights

• Empirical evidence of the "inward-looking" trend: We empirically demonstrated the decline in extraversion among Japanese people using data. Previously, this was largely just a societal discourse.
• A trend common to men and women: The decline in extraversion was observed in men and women, and the extent of change was similar between them.
• A globally unique transformation: This trend is the exact opposite of the "increase in extraversion" reported in other countries (such as the United States, China, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden). This suggests that the decline in extraversion in Japan may be internationally unique.

 

Abstract of Press Release

 Ryonosuke Akimoto, a graduate student at The University of Tokyo (who conducted this research at Aoyama Gakuin University), and Associate Professor Yuji Ogihara at Aoyama Gakuin University have revealed that the extraversion of Japanese people declined from 2010 to 2021 (Figure 1).

 In Japanese media and social commentary, it has frequently been pointed out that Japanese people are becoming more "inward-looking." However, the extent to which it reflects an actual psychological shift in personality traits among the Japanese population has not been adequately examined. Therefore, an empirical examination was required.

 In this study, we comprehensively collected previous research that measured the extraversion of Japanese participants. We statistically controlled for attributes such as participants' age and gender, and analyzed the trends over a 12-year period.

 As a result, it became clear that the extraversion of Japanese people has consistently declined in recent years. This downward trend occurred equally in both men and women, and the extent of change was similar between them. Furthermore, we conducted an analysis limited to data up to 2019 to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis also confirmed a similar decline. These findings provide empirical evidence for the long-standing discourse of an "inward-looking" trend among Japanese people.

 The results of this research was published in the international academic journal Personality Science on June 26, 2026.

 

Background

 Extraversion is one of the Big Five personality traits, and it reflects people's activity and sociability. In Japanese media and social commentary, it has frequently been pointed out that Japanese people are becoming more "inward-looking (introverted: low in extraversion)." For example, the decrease in young people wishing to study abroad or work overseas is seen as a symbol of this trend. Industry leaders and policymakers have discussed this as a "national concern" (Yonezawa, 2014). However, sufficient empirical evidence regarding this "inward-looking" trend had not been obtained (Burgess, 2015; Kikuchi et al., 2015). By empirically analyzing longitudinal changes in extraversion, this study aims to offer new insights into the validity of the increase in inward-looking tendency in Japan.

 Furthermore, previous studies conducted overseas have reported an increase in mean extraversion scores. This includes the United States (Twenge, 2001), China (Peng & Luo, 2021), the Netherlands (Smits et al., 2011), and Sweden (Billstedt et al., 2013). If a downward trend in extraversion is confirmed in Japan, it would contrast with the trends reported in other countries. Such a difference might help in examining the underlying causes of group-level changes in extraversion.

 Therefore, in the present study, we comprehensively collected previous studies that measured the extraversion of Japanese people. By statistically analyzing the longitudinal changes in its mean values, we examined the reality of changes in Japanese personality. We also investigated whether there were any differences in the extent of this change based on gender or age.

 

Results

 First, we investigated previous domestic studies that measured extraversion between 2018 and 2020. This was to determine the scale to be collected for our study. We found that the "Japanese version of the Ten Item Personality Inventory (TIPI-J; Oshio et al., 2012)" was the most frequently used scale in recent years. Therefore, we collected as many previous studies as possible that reported mean extraversion scores using this scale. The publication period was set from 2012 to 2022, because the TIPI-J was introduced by Oshio et al. (2012) in 2012, and studies published afterward were not yet widely available when we began our examination in August 2023. We then analyzed year-by-year changes while statistically controlling for attributes such as gender and age.

 The analysis revealed that the extraversion of Japanese people has been declining in recent years, with both men and women showing a similar decline. Excluding the elderly group (for which sufficient data could not be collected), we also conducted separate analyses for "students only" and "adults only (20-60 years old)." A similar downward trend was observed in both age groups.

 In addition, previous studies have shown that infectious disease outbreaks reduce people's extraversion (e.g., Mortensen et al., 2010). Therefore, we conducted an analysis limited to data up to 2019, excluding data from 2020 onward due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Even when the impact of the pandemic was excluded, a similar trend of declining extraversion was observed between 2010 and 2019. These results provide empirical backing for the discourse of the "inward-looking" trend among Japanese people.

 This contrasts with the upward trends in extraversion reported internationally such as the United States (Twenge, 2001) and China (Peng & Luo, 2021), suggesting that the personality traits of Japanese people are transforming in a unique pattern.

 A limitation of this study is that the analyzed period was restricted to 12 years, as the TIPI-J scale was first introduced in 2010. Further verification is necessary regarding changes over a longer-term span. In the future, we hope to clarify why this decline in extraversion is occurring. We also aim to multilaterally examine how this trend impacts other psychological traits and broader socio-economic indicators to better understand the cultural changes in Japan.

 

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• This article is open access and freely available to anyone. Tables and figures may be reused, provided that they are used in accordance with the appropriate guidelines.
• The figure included in this press release may also be reused, provided that it is used in accordance with the appropriate guidelines.

 

About Aoyama Gakuin University

Aoyama Gakuin, founded on the legacy of three schools established by American Christian missionaries, marked its 150th anniversary in 2024. For a century and a half, we have been committed to developing servant leaders—individuals who act with purpose, humility, and a deep sense of responsibility to others.

Aoyama Gakuin University is a comprehensive institution with 11 faculties and 27 departments. Rooted in a tradition of honoring diversity and encouraging collaboration across disciplines, we continually advance the quality of our research and education. As a community dedicated to serving God and people and contributing to society, we strive to evolve with the demands of our time and to define what a forward‑looking university should be.

 

Aoyama Gakuin University:

https://www.aoyama.ac.jp/en/

Aoyama Gakuin University (Why AGU?):

https://www.aoyama.ac.jp/international/from_overseas/whyagu/?wovn=en

 

About Ryonosuke Akimoto from Master's Program, Department of Psychology, Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, The University of Tokyo

Ryonosuke Akimoto is a master's student at the Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, The University of Tokyo. He began this research during his undergraduate studies at Aoyama Gakuin University. He then presented the findings at the 2025 Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association—Japan's largest psychological conference—where he received the Excellent Presentation Award. His research interests include cultural shifts in Japan, extraversion, first impressions, face-based trait inferences, and their automatic processes.

Website: https://sites.google.com/g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/akimotoryonosuke/profile

Mail: 1889092375@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp

 

About Associate Professor Yuji Ogihara from Aoyama Gakuin University

Yuji Ogihara, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor at the Department of Psychology, College of Education, Psychology and Human Studies at the Aoyama Gakuin University in Japan. He earned his doctorate from Kyoto University in 2015. His research interests include cultural change, interpersonal relationships, names, individualism, and culture. He has over 50 publications to his name. He is a recipient of numerous awards, including the 2024 Young Scientists’ Award (Commendation for Science and Technology by the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan), the 2022 Award for Distinguished Early and Middle Career Contributions (Japanese Psychological Association), and the 2015 Student Poster Award (Society for Personality and Social Psychology).

Website: https://sites.google.com/site/yujiogiharaweb/english

Mail: yogihara@ephs.aoyama.ac.jp

 

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Journal

Personality Science

DOI

10.1177/27000710261452522 

Method of Research

Meta-analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Decline of Extraversion in Japan: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis

 

New book reveals how to manage pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes without drugs, weight loss or supplements

GEM program emphasizes smart eating, physical activity

University of Virginia Health System

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After 16 years of research and clinical testing, University of Virginia School of Medicine diabetes expert Daniel J. Cox, PhD, has authored a book detailing how people with pre-diabetes or type 2 diabetes can manage their condition without weight loss, insulin, medication or supplements.

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Credit: UVA Health

After 16 years of research and clinical testing, a University of Virginia School of Medicine diabetes expert has authored a book detailing how people with pre-diabetes or type 2 diabetes can manage their condition without the need for weight loss, insulin, medication or supplements.

UVA’s Daniel J. Cox, PhD, not only created the GEM program, he has used it successfully for many years to manage his own type 2 diabetes – putting the disease in remission for the past 15 years. The program, Glucose Everyday Matters (GEM), teaches users to listen to their bodies, understand the consequences of their food choices and use exercise strategically to regulate their blood sugar.

Cox says the goal is to provide people with a practical alternative to medication that does not require dieting or deprivation. “I wanted to give patients, and myself, a way to directly and immediately control blood sugar,” he said. “All other approaches indirectly control blood sugar by increasing insulin production, assisting sugar to exit the body through urine or reducing insulin resistance.”

More than 600 million people around the world have pre-diabetes, and 530 million have type 2 diabetes, a condition in which the body becomes unable to regulate blood sugar. This can lead to heart disease, kidney disease, blindness, dementia and many other serious medical conditions. Type 2 diabetes typically affects people over age 45 but is increasingly striking children, teenagers and young adults. Many people must use medication or insulin injections to manage the disease.

In his new book, “A GEM for Your Pre- or Type 2 Diabetes,” Cox lays out his alternative. The program emphasizes how small choices, such as food selection, ultimately have a big impact on blood-sugar levels. But it also emphasizes flexibility: If someone craves a sugary treat, they can have a small piece, but they may need to take a walk after to keep it from spiking their blood sugar.

In addition to controlling blood sugar, the GEM program can have far-reaching health benefits, Cox says. It can help cut down on cravings, reduce fatigue and help prevent energy crashes. It can boost motivation, confidence and emotional well-being. And it can help build smart habits that support long-term wellness.

Many users find they lose weight without really trying. “People learn that they are in control of their blood sugar, not a victim of it, and learn that while focusing on controlling the blood sugar, they are getting healthier and more fit in the process,” said Cox, part of UVA Health’s Center for Diabetes Technology. “I’m always juiced after talking to people in the program, hearing how empowered they felt and [how they were] surprised to learn high blood sugar depends on what they choose to do.”

The approach has been tested in multiple clinical trials, and the vast majority of participants have benefited greatly, Cox noted. It does not work for everyone, but it can be life-changing for many.

“This book is for those people who want to take charge of their diabetes and feel empowered in the process. This book is also beneficial for significant others who live, eat and exercise with the person with diabetes,” Cox said. “My goal is to translate our years and millions of dollars of research findings into real-world benefits for those millions managing pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes.”

Cox’s book is now available at Amazon in an electronic format, for $2.99, and in print as well.

To keep up with the latest medical research news from UVA’s School of Medicine and UVA’s Paul and Diane Manning Institute of Biotechnology, bookmark the Making of Medicine blog at https://www.uvahealth.com/making-of-medicine.

 

Mizzou study shows small scheduling change has big health benefits for night-shift physicians

The findings highlight Mizzou’s efforts to improve the health and well-being of those working overnight.

University of Missouri-Columbia

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Matthew Robinson

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Credit: University of Missouri

University of Missouri researchers have found that a simple scheduling change can improve the health and well-being of physicians working overnight shifts.

In a recent study, Matthew Robinson, chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine in the School of Medicine, examined emergency medicine physicians who regularly rotate between shifts. Rather than working their usual 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. shift during night rotations, physicians worked from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m.

Robinson found that the earlier schedule led to measurable improvements in sleep quality and biomarkers associated with inflammation. The schedule allowed physicians to sleep more during traditional nighttime hours, helping align their sleep with the body’s natural circadian rhythm.

Previous studies have linked disruptions to that internal rhythm to higher rates of inflammation and higher risks of heart disease, diabetes and burnout. Robinson wanted to determine whether a relatively small scheduling change could improve the health of physicians working overnight in a demanding hospital environment.

“What sparked my interest in this work was reading a lot of previous research that shows night-shift workers are at higher risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer and earlier death, so the disruption to our circadian rhythm is an important topic from a wellness perspective,” Robinson said. “If we can collect data that shows changing the night-shift schedule actually makes our physicians healthier, perhaps this change in scheduling can be implemented more widely throughout health care and other industries with night-shift workers.”

In the study, Robinson measured biomarkers associated with inflammation, including white blood cell count and platelet count, before and after switching to the new schedule. Higher levels of these markers can signal increased inflammation, which has been connected to chronic health problems. Both markers decreased after physicians adopted the earlier schedule, suggesting that the schedule change can reduce inflammation.

Study participants also wore Fitbit devices that tracked their sleep patterns. After switching schedules, the physicians experienced more restorative sleep, helping them feel more refreshed and well-rested.

Physicians who participated in the study have reported meaningful improvements in their overall quality of life, Robinson said.

“Changing the schedule allowed them more time to be awake during the day, and that gave them more time for social engagements and time with family, which is really meaningful in terms of having a fulfilling life,” he said. “While the initial experiment ended, we voted to keep the new schedule in place and have been using it ever since. This work reflects Mizzou’s commitment to improving the health and well-being of its health care employees, and that ultimately translates to better patient care.”   

Going forward, he hopes to conduct larger studies to see whether the health benefits of the scheduling change would extend to nurses, who often work 12-hour shifts, as well as other health care employees working overnight.

The study, “Casino schedules reduce inflammatory biomarkers and improve sleep in emergency medicine physicians during shift work,” was published in The American Journal of Emergency Medicine.  

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Journal

The American Journal of Emergency Medicine

DOI

10.1016/j.ajem.2026.05.018 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Casino schedules reduce inflammatory biomarkers and improve sleep in emergency medicine physicians during shift work

 

AMS Science Preview: Neighborhood hurricane warnings, wildfire increase, Earth energy

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access — they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.

Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies
Journal of Climate

Greenhouse gas–driven increase in Earth’s energy budget is “unprecedented” in last 1,000 years. Using tree rings, corals, and ice cores, the authors create the first reconstruction of energy entering and leaving the Earth system over the last thousand years. They find that the rate of energy gain associated with industrial global warming is unprecedented in the last millennium. Preindustrial cooling trends were largely caused by volcanic eruptions.

The Increasing Incidence of Boreal and Western US Forest Wildfires and Its Causes: An Overview
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

U.S. forest fire burn area has increased threefold due to climate change. The average area of boreal and western U.S. forest burned per year has increased by approximately a factor of three since 2000, with rapid increases in large fires, according to a comprehensive literature review. Smoke has also increased over much of North America. Burn area and fire-related carbon emissions are most sensitive to aridity, which has increased as predicted with climate change—strong evidence that global warming, rather than fire management issues, is behind this increased burning.

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations
Journal of Climate

Greenhouse gases appear responsible for tropical cyclone shifts. Model simulations suggest that increased greenhouse gases are likely influencing a southward shift and reduction in frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. While there is significant variance among different models, the authors suggest that atmospheric aerosols would have caused an increase in frequency and a northward shift starting in the 1980s had aerosols remained the dominant influence over TC frequency.

Enhanced Teleconnections of Maritime Continent Deforestation on North Pacific Climate During La Niña Conditions
Journal of Climate

Deforestation in the Maritime Continent causes North American warming during La Niña. Deforestation in Pacific island nations like New Guinea affects large-scale atmospheric circulation, a modeling study suggests. While its effects are more confined during El Niño, Maritime Continent deforestation may trigger significant effects in the North Pacific, including warming in North America, during La Niña—a state likely to become more frequent with global warming.

Local-Scale Wind Forecasting for Tropical Cyclone Early Warnings
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

A step toward neighborhood-level hurricane forecasting. Tropical cyclone (TC) wind forecasts are typically too large-scale to inform decisions at the neighborhood level. A new machine learning system, LiveCyc, transforms TC forecasts into probabilistic, kilometer-scale wind predictions accounting for local factors like topography, showing promise for helping local decision-makers optimize protective measures in advance.

An Object-Based Analysis of Lightning Characteristics in Pre-Tropical Cyclogenesis Environments
Monthly Weather Review

Can lightning help predict hurricane genesis? This study uses data from the Geostationary Lighting Mapper to classify types of lightning within five recent North Atlantic storms, four of which developed into named tropical cyclones (Claudette, Ida, Earl, and Beryl). It found commonalities among the storms that became TCs. If these hold true over a wider number of disturbances, lightning might become a tool for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis.

Precipitation Changes and Possible Mechanisms in the Global Arid Regions During the Last 40 Years
Journal of Climate

Arid regions are getting drier with global warming. Extreme precipitation is globally increasing with climate change. However, in seven of eight arid regions studied, precipitation and extreme precipitation both show decreasing trends between 1980 and 2024. The exception is North Africa, where precipitation is increasing faster than the global mean. While factors correlated with precipitation (such as humidity) show an increase, with rising temperatures they tend to decrease, and arid regions are warming faster than average.

Weathering the Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Public Attitudes to Potential Adoption of Machine Learning-Based Forecasts
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

UK public shows limited confidence in AI/machine learning weather forecasts. A survey of 6,000 people in the UK finds that 78% believe current numerical weather prediction forecasts are accurate, with high agreement among demographic groups. Only 47% believe that machine-learning weather forecasts would be accurate, suggesting the need for more engagement to identify and address concerns.

Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States
Weather, Climate, and Society

Future hail risk in the Midwest and Great Plains. Hail is the third-costliest peril affecting crop production in the United States. This study finds that despite projected decreases in regional hail, the Great Plains face the greatest exposure-driven risk in the future due to the expansion of cropland into areas with extensive summer hail. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South may undergo hazard-driven loss increases due to more severe hail, despite negligible change in cropland extent.

Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil
Earth Interactions

Global warming may reshape the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes. Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to rising ocean temperatures appears likely to reduce rainfall in the Amazon wet season and increase it in the dry season. Additionally, it may cause cooling in the Amazon, warming in central Brazil, and tropical forest expansion into Caatinga shrubland regions, according to a modeling study.

“When Should I Leave?”: The Effect of Impact Based Hurricane Wind and Storm Surge Emergency Alerts on Evacuation Intentions
Weather, Climate, and Society

Impact-based storm surge warnings may improve evacuation decision-making. A study of Florida and Louisiana residents found that “impact-based” hurricane storm surge warnings, which include information about adverse consequences such as road flooding, were effective in predicting intentions to evacuate, and were especially beneficial for those who had no prior experience with evacuation or storm surge.

Excellent Forecasts but Poor Outcomes: Why Can’t We Do Better?
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Why do weather disasters continue? Despite vast improvements in our ability to predict dangerous weather, catastrophic damage continues. The author identifies reasons including inadequate communication, ineffective evacuations, infrastructure issues, nonspecific or unclear forecast guidance, or inadequate/delayed emergency response. He suggests reorganizing National Weather Service offices to prioritize warnings, improved federal investment in local prediction, and establishing a National Disaster Review Board.

Seasonal and Geographical Differences in the Marine Thermal Influence on US Coastal Air Temperatures
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Oceans don’t always balance regional temperatures. In general, the ocean has a moderating influence on coastal air temperatures, warming in winter and cooling in summer. However, the authors find that on the U.S. East Coast south of Cape Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream is close to the coast), the ocean’s nighttime warming outweighs its daytime cooling effect, leading to an overall warming influence in spring/summer.

Design Challenges in the Hurricane Track Forecast Cone: Insights from Focus Groups with Under-Represented Populations
Weather, Climate, and Society

Disadvantaged communities struggle with the hurricane forecast cone. Focus groups of native Spanish speakers and members of economically disadvantaged communities in Miami examined the National Hurricane Center's popular Track Forecast Cone. Participants perceived the graphic to have too much clutter and an unclear layout. They struggled to interpret the cone shape, symbols and colors, watches and warnings, and forecast periods. They also expressed difficulty in using the graphic to make decisions. Some difficulties arose from issues interpreting the legend based on language and measurement conventions.

Institutional Conservation and Carbon Emission Mitigation: County-Level Evidence from the Establishment of China’s National Parks
Weather, Climate, and Society

National parks reduce emissions in China. The establishment of national parks in China is found to reduce county-level carbon emission intensity by fostering tertiary sector growth in low-carbon, high-value-added green services, such as ecotourism and cultural experiences, and by enhancing forest ecological benefits such as carbon sequestration.

How Have the Intrinsic Characteristics and Application of the Enhanced Fujita Scale Contributed to a Decreased Frequency of Intense Tornadoes in the United States?
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Intense tornado “drought” a product of the EF scale. In recent years (2014–23), fewer tornadoes have been rated at significant levels (EF3+) than in the past. This study adds evidence that this decrease is driven by differences in design and use between the old Fujita (F) and current Enhanced Fujita (EF) intensity scales, not by weather changes. The authors call for a reevaluation of the tornado record in the United States to create a more consistent record.

Water-Constrained Revegetation Potential in China’s Drylands Using a Multi-Data Ensemble Approach
Journal of Hydrometeorology

Determining water budgets for reforestation. Reforestation is an important natural form of carbon sequestration. The authors analyze tradeoffs between water conservation and reforestation in China, finding that in water-scarce areas, even using less water-intensive vegetation does not offset the water consumed. However, in areas of water surplus it is feasible to plant vegetation that consumes more water.

Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
Weather, Climate, and Society

Climate change impacts Chilean sports across seasons and categories. A literature review finds that among Chilean sports, “warm-season activities are increasingly constrained by heat stress and wildfire smoke; winter sports face shorter and less reliable seasons under declining snowpack; high-Andean sports are affected by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and route instability; and water-based sports are influenced by altered hydrology, atmospheric river events, storm surges, and coastal erosion.”

A Multi-model Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi
Journal of Hydrometeorology

Climate change will increase irrigation challenges in Malawi. In Malawian river basins, there is very little buffer between the onset of meteorological drought and the diminishing of stream flow, this finds a multi-model study. This means water demand for irrigation often coincides with reduced water availability, a situation likely to worsen with climate change.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

 

Lower-income, more diverse neighborhoods face highest multi-hazard climate risks, PSU study finds

Portland State University

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Maps showing census block groups (left) and census tracts (right) in Portland facing varying risk from hazards, including extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, and landslides.

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Credit: Justin Huber and Heejun Chang | Portland State University

When it comes to compounding natural hazards like landslides, wildfires, flooding and extreme heat, where you live makes all the difference. New research from Portland State University underscores this disproportionate reality, finding that in Portland, the areas most vulnerable to multiple climate hazards are historically underinvested neighborhoods marked by lower median incomes, lower education levels and higher racial diversity.

The study — led by Justin Huber, a doctoral student in the Earth, Environment & Society program, and Heejun Chang, a professor of geography — mapped where hazards are most likely to hit across Portland and how those risks align with factors like income, education, tree cover, wetlands and access to critical services.

By examining social, ecological and technological variables, the researchers sought to better understand how natural hazards interact with the complex dynamics of urban systems.

"We're not just people experiencing natural hazards, but we're in a system that interacts with the natural hazards and the things we do also influence the potential for those hazards," Huber said. "If we cut down a bunch of trees, that may increase the likelihood of landslides but decrease the likelihood of forest fires." 

Looking at individual hazards, flood and heat risks were more common in flat East Portland, while wildfire and landslide risks were more concentrated in the hilly terrain of West Portland. 

When these threats overlap, though, East Portland emerges as the city's multi-hazard hotspot, with neighborhoods along I-205 scoring among the highest for all four hazard risks. These areas are home to a higher proportion of non-white residents, lower median incomes and lower educational attainment, according to the study. The inverse is often true of Central and West Portland, where overall hazard exposure is much lower.

The high-risk areas are the same areas that have dealt with chronic underinvestment, the researchers said. Most of East Portland near present-day I-205 was labeled "definitely declining" — the second lowest rating — on the 1938 Home Owners' Loan Corporation maps that institutionalized redlining. In recent decades, as historically redlined but lower-risk neighborhoods in North/Northeast Portland underwent redevelopment, rising housing costs forced residents out to the more hazard-prone neighborhoods of East Portland.

"It's important to see how people move when these other two things — ecological and technological variables — change," Huber said. "You don't want to inadvertently cause people to move."

Key findings from the study include:

• Roughly 5% of Portland residents live in neighborhoods facing the highest risk from three or more hazards. 

• Compared with the citywide average, those 18 census block groups — neighborhood-level areas typically home to 600 to 3,000 residents each — have lower median incomes, lower educational attainment, fewer wetlands and longer distances to hospitals.

• Areas with overlapping high hazard potential saw their median income grow the slowest over a 10-year period. They also had lower than average percent of residents with at least a bachelor's degree and higher than average percent of residents with a disability.

"Even though the city is trying to do some equity work, we have a long way to go," Chang said. "These hazard hotspots are the areas where the city can do better in creating more green and blue spaces and invest in infrastructure to make them more resilient to future hazards." 

The researchers say the study can be replicated in other cities facing similar hazards from climate change and land development — not only for city managers to be better informed, but for residents living in those high-risk areas to be educated and empowered to advocate for better environmental infrastructure. 

Accounting for overlapping hazards can dramatically improve emergency planning, the researchers said. For example, cities could use multi-hazard maps to better position evacuation routes and ensure critical infrastructure like hospitals is built in lower-risk areas so they can remain operational during a disaster. 

Natural features can also serve as buffers. Expanding wetlands, or blue spaces, for example, helps absorb floodwaters, cools surrounding areas and blocks fires from moving across the landscape. Chang pointed to the Foster Floodplain Natural Area in Portland's Lents neighborhood, completed in 2012, as a good example of the city buying property from more than 60 homeowners to let Johnson Creek safely overflow and store floodwaters.

"Those are the kinds of efforts that this study can inform," Chang said. 

The findings were published in the journal Natural Hazards. Funding for the study came from the National Science Foundation research traineeship at PSU focusing on the causes, consequences of and community responses to cascading natural hazards.

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Journal

Natural Hazards

DOI

10.1007/s11069-026-08362-9 

Article Title

Spatial assessment of multi-hazard potential across scales using the social, ecological, and technological systems framework

Article Publication Date

10-Aug-2026