NOT FRONT PAGE NEWS,QUE?
Inside the US Jobs Report: Record-Low Black
Unemployment
By Dan Burns and Howard Schneider
(Reuters) - The Black unemployment rate hit a record low in March, a milestone for a U.S. labor market that most policymakers and economists expect to begin cooling in the face of higher interest rates, jeopardizing those historic gains.
The Black unemployment rate tumbled to 5% last month from 5.7% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, perhaps the most notable data point in a report that at once displayed the resilience of the American job market but also the early signs of its vulnerability to the higher borrowing costs engineered by the Federal Reserve over the last year.
Only a month ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced withering criticism from a band of progressive Democratic lawmakers who accused him of trying to orchestrate a slowdown in hiring that would put historically vulnerable populations - Blacks in particular - at the greatest risk of job losses.
The data for March shows that has not occurred, yet. The 0.7 percentage point decline in the African American unemployment rate was the largest since November 2021 and was led by Black women, for whom joblessness dropped to a record low 4.2%. The rate for Black men ticked up to 5.2% from February's record-low-matching 5.1%.
Moreover, the gap between jobless rates for whites and African Americans also narrowed to 1.8 percentage points, the lowest since the Labor Department began tracking it half a century ago.
That said, with the overall U.S. jobless rate edging back down to within a whisker of its lowest level since the 1960s, this may be as good as it gets. The question is whether such low rates and differentials hold relatively steady as the job market softens in the months ahead, as most expect, or whether the gains for Blacks, Hispanics and others erode more rapidly as they have done historically during economic downturns.
WARNING SIGNS
Indications of late-cycle behavior are starting to accumulate. Net flows into the labor market and the labor force participation rate are both improving, developments that research shows come along late in the employment cycle.
Employment in sectors often the most sensitive to cracking in the face of higher interest rates have begun flashing yellow.
For instance, construction employment, surprisingly resilient given the drop in housing starts since the Fed's rate hikes began just over a year ago, fell in March. And the manufacturing sector lost jobs as well on the heels of a decline in industrial production, one of the statistics watched closely for the onset of a recession.
The bulk of job growth is now coming from the areas that are proving most nettlesome for the Fed as a source of inflation, perhaps a sign that the central bank may feel compelled to tighten conditions even further to bring the pace of price increases down. Case in point: Not only did leisure and hospitality job gains lead overall private sector employment growth, the monthly pay increase across the sector, at 0.7%, was more than double the national average.
Such data again bring into focus the potential vulnerability of March's gains for Black workers. In every U.S. recession since the 1970s the Black unemployment rate has risen by at least 2 percentage points more than for whites, and often by far more than that.
(Reporting by Dan Burns and Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
US adds a healthy 236,000 jobs despite Fed’s rate hikes
By PAUL WISEMAN
A hiring sign is displayed at a restaurant in Prospect Heights, Ill., Tuesday, April 4, 2023. On Friday, the U.S. government issued the March jobs report. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added a solid 236,000 jobs in March, suggesting that the economy remains on solid footing despite the nine interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve has imposed over the past year in its drive to tame inflation.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, just above the 53-year low of 3.4% set in January.
At the same time, some of the details of Friday’s report from the Labor Department raised the possibility that inflationary pressures might be easing and that the Fed might soon decide to pause its rate hikes. Average hourly wages were up 4.2% from 12 months earlier, down sharply from a 4.6% year-over-year increase in February.
Measured month to month, wages rose 0.3% from February to March, a tick up from a mild 0.2% gain from January to February. But even that figure signaled a slowdown from average wage increases in the final months of 2022.
Last month’s job gain marked a moderation from the sizzling 326,000 that were added in February.
“Today’s report is a Goldilocks report,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor. “It’s hard to find a way it could have been better. We do see that the job market is cooling, but it’s still resilient.’’
In another sign that might reassure the Fed’s inflation fighters, a substantial 480,000 Americans began looking for work in March. Typically, the bigger the supply of job seekers, the less pressure employers feel to raise wages. The result can be an easing of inflation pressures.
The percentage of people who either have a job or are looking for one — the so-called labor force participation rate — reached 62.6% in March, the highest level in three years. And the share of working-age Americans — those ages 25 to 54 — who have jobs rose to 80.7%, the highest point since 2001.
“Americans, by and large, are looking for work and finding it,″ Zhao said.
In its report Friday, the government also revised down its estimate of job growth in January and February by a combined 17,000.
“The labor market continues to soften,” said Sinem Buber, an economist at the job firm ZipRecruiter. ”That should reduce inflationary pressures in the coming months and give the Federal Reserve greater confidence regarding the inflation outlook.″
Last month’s job growth was led by the leisure and hospitality category, which added 72,000. Among that sector’s industries, restaurants and bars gained 50,000.
State and local governments added 39,000, healthcare companies 34,000. But construction companies cut 9,000 jobs, that sector’s first such decline since January 2022. And factories reduced payrolls slightly for a second straight month, reflecting a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing.
Though unemployment remains higher for people of color than for white Americans, the unemployment rate for Black workers fell last month to 5% — the lowest jobless rate for African Americans in government records dating to 1972.
With job growth still brisk across the economy, many employers are still struggling to fill positions.
In North Carolina’s Outer Banks, Clark Twiddy said his family company, which sells property and helps homeowners rent to vacationers, still faces what he calls “the tightest job market of anyone’s lifetime.”
Twiddy & Co. has sharply raised entry-level pay for seasonal workers — it hires 500 to 600 a year — to $18-$20 an hour from $13-$14 in 2019.
Service companies like his, Twiddy said, have to treat employees as respectfully as they do customers, knowing that the best ones have ample job opportunities elsewhere.
“There’s no algorithm that cleans up a bathroom or a kitchen,” he said. “We have to pay more. We have to train more. We have to engage more.’’
For his 175 full-time employees, Twiddy has offered perks — from allowing flexible work-at-home schedules to taking the staff on group trips to Nashville and Las Vegas.
His business is still booming, thanks to Americans’ pent-up demand to take vacations. Despite his higher costs, he said, “I’m making more money at what I’m doing than I’ve ever done.”
More than two years of labor shortages have led some companies to turn to machines to try to improve efficiency. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer and private employer, for example, has embarked on a major push toward automation.
By the 2026 fiscal year, the company says it expects roughly two-thirds of its stores to be served by automation, with a majority of items that are processed through its warehouses to move through automated facilities. The change will involve robotic forklifts that unload goods from trailers instead of having workers do the manual work. Walmart said such moves will require roles that demand less physical labor yet could provide higher pay.
Despite last month’s healthy job growth, the latest economic signs suggest that the economy is slowing, which would help cool inflation pressures. Manufacturing is weakening. America’s trade with the rest of the world is declining. And though restaurants, retailers and other services companies are still growing, they are doing so more slowly.
For Fed officials, taming inflation is Job One. They were slow to respond after prices started surging in the spring of 2021, concluding that it was only a temporary consequence of supply bottlenecks caused by the economy’s surprisingly explosive rebound from the pandemic recession.
Only in March 2022 did the Fed begin raising its benchmark rate from near zero. In the past year, though, it has raised rates more aggressively than it had since the 1980s to attack the worst inflation bout since then.
And as borrowing costs have risen, inflation has steadily eased. The latest year-over-year consumer inflation rate — 6% — is well below the 9.1% rate it reached last June. But it’s still considerably above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Labor Department on Thursday said it had adjusted the way it calculates how many Americans are filing for unemployment benefits. The tweak added nearly 100,000 jobless claims to its figures for the past two weeks and might explain why heavy layoffs in the tech industry this year had yet to show up on the unemployment rolls. The Fed has expressed hope that employers would ease wage pressures by advertising fewer vacancies rather than by cutting many existing jobs.
The March numbers are the last jobs report the Fed will see before its next meeting May 2-3. But its policymakers will gain a clearer view of inflationary pressures next week, when the Labor Department issues reports on prices at the consumer and wholesale levels.
Some economists are holding out hope that the economy can avoid a recession despite the ever-higher borrowing rates the Fed has been engineering.
“Today’s job market does not look like one that’s about to tip into recession,” Zhao said. “I wouldn’t bet against the job market.’’
___
AP Retail Writer Anne D’Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.
By STAN CHOE
A man looks at an electronic stock board showing Japan's stock prices at a securities firm on April 4, 2023 in Tokyo. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher on Friday, April 7, ahead of a U.S. job market update that traders hope might encourage the Federal Reserve to ease off plans for more interest rate hikes.
NEW YORK (AP) — Yields rose in the U.S. bond market Friday following a highly anticipated report on the U.S. job market.
The U.S. stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday, as were many markets across Europe. That left the U.S. bond market as one of the few open to react to the latest jobs update, which showed hiring lost a bit more momentum than expected last month but largely remained resilient.
The data was so anticipated because it could offer a big clue for the Federal Reserve, which faces a tough decision on interest rates that will affect the entire economy. Should it keep raising rates in order to drive down inflation that’s still high? Or should it hold off given signs of a slowing economy and stress in the banking system caused by the past year’s barrage of rate hikes?
The immediate reaction from the bond market Friday seemed to lean toward another hike. Not only did yields rise for Treasurys, so did bets for the Fed to raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point in May at its next meeting.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 3.40% from 3.30% late Thursday, as of noon Eastern time, when bond trading was recommended to end. The two-year yield, which tends to move more on expectations for the Fed, rose to 3.96% from 3.83%.
Traders also are betting on a roughly two-in-three probability that the Fed will raise rates in May, according to data from CME Group. A day earlier, they saw roughly a coin flip’s chance that the Fed would make no move on rates, something that hasn’t happened in more than a year.
Friday’s jobs report showed that employers added 236,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from February’s 326,000 and slightly below economists’ expectations. Wages, meanwhile, grew 0.3% from February to match expectations. But year-over-year wage gains slowed to 4.2% from 4.6%.
A cooler job market is exactly what the Fed is trying to achieve. Raising rates is one of the Fed’s most effective ways to undercut inflation, but it’s a notoriously blunt tool that works only by slowing the entire economy. That raises the risk of a recession and hurts prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.
“The labor market is getting winded,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. “Payroll gains are still high, but the aggregate hours worked have fallen two months in a row. The payroll gains are not as broad-based as they used to be and hours are getting cut.”
Jacobsen said he doesn’t see reason for the Fed to hike rates based on the jobs report alone, and he said next week’s update on inflation may be more important. The government will offer the latest monthly update on prices consumers are paying on Wednesday. Economists expect it to show another slowdown, but for inflation to remain well above the Fed’s target.
Friday’s jobs report followed a string of reports on the economy this week that showed flagging momentum. A measure of health for the U.S. manufacturing industry contracted by its worst level since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was wrecking the global economy. A separate measure of the U.S. services industries was weaker than expected, while employers posted fewer job openings across the country.
Many economists see a recession later this year as likely. But some say a narrow possibility still exists where the Fed could raise rates just enough to get inflation fully under control without causing a severe recession.
Also complicating things for the Fed is the widespread belief in the bond market that the central bank will have to cut interest rates later this year in order to prop up the economy.
Such cuts can act like steroids for financial markets and relax conditions for the economy, but they likewise would give inflation more oxygen. The Fed has so far consistently said it sees no rate cuts happening this year. It’s often cited the dangers of letting up on the fight against inflation too early.
“Below-trend job growth and a modest rise in the unemployment rate is what the Fed is aiming for, but the weakening labor market supports the recession narrative and reinforce markets expectations of rate cuts,” said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco.
Before the release of the U.S. jobs report, stocks rose across much of Asia.
Stocks in Shanghai gained 0.5%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.2% and the Kospi in Seoul rose 1.3%. Bangkok, Taiwan and Malaysia also gained.
___ AP Business Writer Joe McDonald contributed.
U.S. Employment Situation Summary
Technical information: www.bls.gov/cps
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2023
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. FOR ALL TABLES
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.8 million, changed little in March. These measures have shown little net movement since early 2022. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics decreased to 4.6 percent in March, essentially offsetting an increase in the prior month. The unemployment rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (9.8 percent), Whites (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.0 percent), and Asians (2.8 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 172,000 to 1.6 million in March, and the number of reentrants to the labor force declined by 182,000 to 1.7 million. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.1 million in March. These individuals accounted for 18.9 percent of all unemployed persons. (See table A-12.)
The labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, continued to trend up in March.The employment-population ratio edged up over the month to 60.4 percent. These measures remain below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels (63.3 percent and 61.1percent, respectively). (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged at 4.1 million in March. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 4.9 million in March and has returned to its February 2020 level. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was little changed at 1.3 million in March. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also was little changed over the monthat 351,000. (See Summary table A.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in March, compared with the average monthly gain of 334,000 over the prior 6 months. In March, employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care. (See table B-1.)
Leisure and hospitality added 72,000 jobs in March, lower than the average monthly gain of 95,000 over the prior 6 months. Most of the job growth occurred in food services and drinking places, where employment rose by 50,000 in March. Employment in leisure and hospitality is below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 368,000, or 2.2 percent.
Government employment increased by 47,000 in March, the same as the average monthly gain over the prior 6 months. Overall, employment in government is below its February 2020 level by 314,000, or 1.4 percent.
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+39,000), in line with the average monthly growth over the prior 6 months (+34,000). Within the industry, employment in professional, scientific, and technical services continued its upward trend in March (+26,000).
Over the month, health care added 34,000 jobs, lower than the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 6 months. In March, job growth occurred in home health care services (+15,000) and hospitals (+11,000). Employment continued to trend up in nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in March (+17,000), in line with the average monthly growth over the prior 6 months (+22,000).
In March, employment in transportation and warehousing changed little (+10,000). Couriers and messengers (+7,000) and air transportation (+6,000) added jobs, while warehousing and storage lost jobs (-12,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has shown little net change in recent months.
Employment in retail trade changed little in March (-15,000). Job losses in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-9,000) and in furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers (-9,000) were partially offset by a job gain in department stores (+15,000). Retail trade employment is little changed on net over the year.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; financial activities; and other services. In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.18. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.2 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $28.50. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in March. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.3 hours, and overtime remained at 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.9 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 32,000, from +504,000 to +472,000, and the change for February was revised up by15,000, from +311,000 to +326,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
_____________
The Employment Situation for April is scheduled to be released on Friday,
May 5, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
nTIDE March 2023 jobs report: people with disabilities maintain record labor force participation rate, outperforming people without disabilities
National Trends in Disability Employment (nTIDE) – Issued semi-monthly by Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire
Reports and ProceedingsEast Hanover, NJ – April, 7 2023 – People with disabilities maintained their record labor force participation rate in March, continuing to outperform people without disabilities, according to today’s National Trends in Disability Employment – semi-monthly update (nTIDE), issued by Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire’s Institute on Disability (UNH-IOD). Year-to-year, people with and without disabilities showed gains in employment, reflecting the economy’s ongoing recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Year-to-Year nTIDE Numbers (comparing March 2022 to March 2023)
Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report released today, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) increased from 37.8 percent in March 2022 to 40.2 percent in March 2023 (up 6.3 percent or 2.4 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate also increased from 77.2 percent in March 2022 to 77.6 percent in March 2023 (up 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points). The labor force participation rate reflects the percentage of people who are in the labor force (working, on temporary layoff, on furlough, or actively looking for work in the last four weeks) relative to the total population (the number of people in the labor force divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).
“The labor force participation rate was unchanged from last month, 40.2 percent in February 2023 and March 2023, showing that over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, people with disabilities remained in the labor force, and continue to outperform people without disabilities,” remarked Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and research director of the UNH-IOD. “Several factors may be driving the increased participation of people with disabilities, including an increase in job opportunities and the pressing need to work as families face inflationary prices,” he added.
With regard to employment, the employment-to-population ratio for working-age people with disabilities (ages 16-64) increased from 34.1 percent in March 2022 to 36.6 percent in March 2023 (up 7.3 percent or 2.5 percentage points). For working-age people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio also increased from 74.5 percent in March 2022 to 74.9 percent in March 2023 (up 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points). The employment-to-population ratio, a key indicator, reflects the percentage of people who are working relative to the total population (the number of people working divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).
“We saw a year-to-year improvement in the employment-to-population ratio for both people with and without disabilities from March 2022 to this year,” said John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation. “This probably reflects the emergence of the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.
This graphic compares the labor market indicators for February 2023 and March 2023, showing a flat labor force participation rate for people with disabilities and a slight increase for people without disabilities. The employment-to-population ratio decreased slightly for people with disabilities and increased for people without disabilities
CREDIT
Kessler Foundation
Month-to-Month nTIDE Numbers (comparing February 2023 to March 2023) Compared to last month, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) remained unchanged from February 2023 to March 2023 at 40.2 percent. For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate increased slightly from 77.3 percent in February 2023 to 77.6 percent in March 2023 (up 0.4 percent or 0.3 percentage points).
Regarding employment, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased slightly from 36.9 percent in February 2023 to 36.6 percent in March 2023 (down 0.8 percent or 0.3 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio increased from 74.4 percent in February 2023 to 74.9 percent in March 2023 (up 0.7 percent or 0.5 percentage points).
In March, among workers ages 16-64, the 5,997,000 workers with disabilities represented 4.0 percent of the total 149,952,000 workers in the U.S.
Ask Questions about Disability and Employment
Each nTIDE release is followed by an nTIDE Lunch & Learn online webinar. This live broadcast, hosted via Zoom Webinar, offers attendees Q&A on the latest nTIDE findings, provides news and updates from the field, and features invited panelists who discuss current disability-related findings and events.
On April 7, 2023, at 12:00 pm Eastern, Jennifer Croft, Program Manager for Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, joins Drs. O’Neill and Houtenville, and Denise Rozell from the Association of University Centers on Disabilities (AUCD). Join our free Lunch & Learn live or visit the nTIDE archives at: ResearchonDisability.org/nTIDE.
Register now for our mid-month Deeper Dive into employment trends at nTIDE Deeper Dive - 4/21/2023 | Center for Research on Disability.
NOTE: The statistics in the nTIDE are based on BLS numbers but are not identical. They are customized by UNH to combine the statistics for men and women of working age (16- 64). nTIDE is funded by Kessler Foundation and was initially funded by grants from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR) (90RT5037).
About the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire
The Institute on Disability (IOD) at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) was established in 1987 to provide a university-based focus for the improvement of knowledge, policies, and practices related to the lives of persons with disabilities and their families. For information on the NIDILRR-funded Research and Training Center on Disability Statistics, visit ResearchOnDisability.org.
About Kessler Foundation
Kessler Foundation, a major nonprofit organization in the field of disability, is a global leader in rehabilitation research. Our scientists seek to improve cognition, mobility, and long-term outcomes, including employment, for adults and children with neurological and developmental disabilities of the brain and spinal cord including traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, stroke, multiple sclerosis, and autism. Kessler Foundation also leads the nation in funding innovative programs that expand opportunities for employment for people with disabilities. For more information, visit KesslerFoundation.org.
Stay Connected with Kessler Foundation
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Graphics:
Title: nTIDE Year-to-Year Comparison of Labor Market Indicators for People with and without Disabilities
Caption: This graphic compares the labor market indicators for March 2022 and March 2023, showing increases for people with and without disabilities.
Title: nTIDE Month-to-Month Comparison of Labor Market Indicators for People with and without Disabilities
Caption: This graphic compares the labor market indicators for February 2023 and March 2023, showing a flat labor force participation rate for people with disabilities and a slight increase for people without disabilities. The employment-to-population ratio decreased slightly for people with disabilities and increased for people without disabilities.
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