UK
Thumping defeats for Tories but Rishi Sunak is spared by-election whitewashThe Tories narrowly held on to Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but were defeated in the two other by-elections
By Alan Young
THE SCOTSMAN
Published 21st Jul 2023
Rishi Sunak has suffered a double by-election defeat in safe Tory seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both overturning majorities of about 20,000.
Labour won Selby and Ainsty and the Lib Dems took Somerton and Frome on sizable swings which will leave many Tory MPs looking nervously at their own majorities.
Published 21st Jul 2023
Rishi Sunak has suffered a double by-election defeat in safe Tory seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both overturning majorities of about 20,000.
Labour won Selby and Ainsty and the Lib Dems took Somerton and Frome on sizable swings which will leave many Tory MPs looking nervously at their own majorities.
But the Tory leader was spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day as Labour failed to secure victory in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Labour Party candidate Keir Mather celebrates winning with 16,456 votes the Selby and Ainsty by-election on July 21, 2023 in Selby (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
Boris Johnson not a factor in Uxbridge as Ulez dominates
Tory Steve Tuckwell held on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Mr Johnson secured in 2019.
In Selby and Ainsty, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons – the Baby of the House – after overturning a 20,137 majority.
He secured a 4,161 majority in the North Yorkshire seat with and Labour said it was the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election.
Boris Johnson not a factor in Uxbridge as Ulez dominates
Tory Steve Tuckwell held on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Mr Johnson secured in 2019.
In Selby and Ainsty, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons – the Baby of the House – after overturning a 20,137 majority.
He secured a 4,161 majority in the North Yorkshire seat with and Labour said it was the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election.
Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell speaks to the media in Queensmead Sports Centre in South Ruislip, west London, after winning the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election,
The swing from Conservative to Labour of 23.7 percentage points is the second largest swing managed by Labour at a by-election since 1945.
A similar swing across the country would result in it winning more seats than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, Labour claimed.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.
“Keir Mather will be a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves.
“It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us — many for the first time. After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back.”
For the Lib Dems, a 29.0 percentage point swing in Somerton and Frome saw a 19,213 Tory majority turned into a 11,008-vote cushion for new MP Sarah Dyke.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the Somerton and Frome result showed his party was once again winning votes in its former West Country heartland.
“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government,” he said.
The victory means Sir Ed has become the first party leader since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections.
Unease in Uxbridge
Despite Labour’s success in North Yorkshire, the failure to secure victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London has led to a blame game among senior figures over the capital’s mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to cover outer boroughs.
Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time” to expand the £12.50 daily charge for cars which fail to meet emissions standards.
The defeat in the seat was dubbed “Uloss” by a party insider in a sign of the unease at Mr Khan’s plan.
In his victory speech, new MP Mr Tuckwell said Mr Khan had cost Labour the seat.
“It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election,” he said.
“This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”
Labour shadow cabinet minister Steve Reed acknowledged it had been a factor in the campaign and called for Mr Khan to change course.
The shadow justice secretary said: “I think those responsible for that policy will need to reflect on what the voters have said and whether there’s an opportunity to change.”
For Mr Sunak, the defeats happened as MPs drifted away from Westminster to begin their summer break, so he may be spared a clamour against his leadership.
The Prime Minister could attempt to reset his administration with a Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the contests – Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has already signalled he will exit the Government, so there is a vacancy to be filled – although No 10 has publicly said there are no plans for a shake-up.
Mr Sunak may have decided the benefits of freshening up his team at this stage would be outweighed by the risk of it being perceived as a panicked response to an electoral setback.
The swing from Conservative to Labour of 23.7 percentage points is the second largest swing managed by Labour at a by-election since 1945.
A similar swing across the country would result in it winning more seats than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, Labour claimed.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.
“Keir Mather will be a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves.
“It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us — many for the first time. After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back.”
For the Lib Dems, a 29.0 percentage point swing in Somerton and Frome saw a 19,213 Tory majority turned into a 11,008-vote cushion for new MP Sarah Dyke.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the Somerton and Frome result showed his party was once again winning votes in its former West Country heartland.
“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government,” he said.
The victory means Sir Ed has become the first party leader since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections.
Unease in Uxbridge
Despite Labour’s success in North Yorkshire, the failure to secure victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London has led to a blame game among senior figures over the capital’s mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to cover outer boroughs.
Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time” to expand the £12.50 daily charge for cars which fail to meet emissions standards.
The defeat in the seat was dubbed “Uloss” by a party insider in a sign of the unease at Mr Khan’s plan.
In his victory speech, new MP Mr Tuckwell said Mr Khan had cost Labour the seat.
“It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election,” he said.
“This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”
Labour shadow cabinet minister Steve Reed acknowledged it had been a factor in the campaign and called for Mr Khan to change course.
The shadow justice secretary said: “I think those responsible for that policy will need to reflect on what the voters have said and whether there’s an opportunity to change.”
For Mr Sunak, the defeats happened as MPs drifted away from Westminster to begin their summer break, so he may be spared a clamour against his leadership.
The Prime Minister could attempt to reset his administration with a Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the contests – Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has already signalled he will exit the Government, so there is a vacancy to be filled – although No 10 has publicly said there are no plans for a shake-up.
Mr Sunak may have decided the benefits of freshening up his team at this stage would be outweighed by the risk of it being perceived as a panicked response to an electoral setback.
By-elections offer slim hope for Rishi Sunak
Friday 21 July 2023
ITV
Robert Peston
Peston's Politics
Robert Peston
Peston's Politics
Rishi Sunak avoided a triple by-election defeat, but lost two safe Tory seats.
It would be wrong to say that it was anything but a terrible night for Rishi Sunak and the Tories, with the massive swings against it in Selby and in Somerton.
But the retention of Uxbridge and South Ruislip shows how much work Sir Keir Starmer still has to do to be confident of winning the general election, and why the prime minister will believe there remains a path to victory - or at least to avoid humiliation - for him.
The important background is that only a few days ago Labour thought Uxbridge was in the bag, while Selby was a less certain victory.
The party miscalculated, or rather put too little weight on how disillusionment with the Tories could be trumped by a specific issue of material, economic importance to voters.
To put it another way, cash-strapped Uxbridge voters decided it was more important to use the by-election to protest against the Labour London mayor’s extension of the ULEZ - the capital’s charging zone for vehicles - than to signal disillusionment with an unpopular government.In Uxbridge, a single economic issue - during a cost-of-living crunch - trumped the more general national mood that it is time to get the Tories out.The implications for the general election are significant.
Starmer seems still some way from creating the excitement about Labour that would trump local issues like the Ulez. He needs to do more to give voters a powerful reason to vote FOR Labour rather then just AGAINST the Tories.
Second, for Sunak, it reinforces his conviction that if only he could persuade voters they would be financially better off sticking with the Tories, the gap with Labour would narrow.
His obsession with helping to force inflation below pay rises is the correct political obsession, though it requires voters to see any modest recovery in living standards as sustainable under him and at risk under Labour.
Third, it was a terrible night for anyone who thinks tackling climate change is THE SINGLE PRIORITY.
Uxbridge voters said they cared more about the pounds in their pockets today than global warming.
Fourth, the Lib Dems are definitively and importantly back as the important third force in English politics, and are rampant in the West Country again.
Fifth, Boris Johnson may this morning be feeling a twinge of regret that he did not fight the Uxbridge by-election as a platform for his rehabilitation, rather than stomping off in a huff that MPs punished him for lying to them.
Uxbridge, it turns out, even with its slimmer Tory majority than Selby, was winnable. After a recount.
It would be wrong to say that it was anything but a terrible night for Rishi Sunak and the Tories, with the massive swings against it in Selby and in Somerton.
But the retention of Uxbridge and South Ruislip shows how much work Sir Keir Starmer still has to do to be confident of winning the general election, and why the prime minister will believe there remains a path to victory - or at least to avoid humiliation - for him.
The important background is that only a few days ago Labour thought Uxbridge was in the bag, while Selby was a less certain victory.
The party miscalculated, or rather put too little weight on how disillusionment with the Tories could be trumped by a specific issue of material, economic importance to voters.
To put it another way, cash-strapped Uxbridge voters decided it was more important to use the by-election to protest against the Labour London mayor’s extension of the ULEZ - the capital’s charging zone for vehicles - than to signal disillusionment with an unpopular government.In Uxbridge, a single economic issue - during a cost-of-living crunch - trumped the more general national mood that it is time to get the Tories out.The implications for the general election are significant.
Starmer seems still some way from creating the excitement about Labour that would trump local issues like the Ulez. He needs to do more to give voters a powerful reason to vote FOR Labour rather then just AGAINST the Tories.
Second, for Sunak, it reinforces his conviction that if only he could persuade voters they would be financially better off sticking with the Tories, the gap with Labour would narrow.
His obsession with helping to force inflation below pay rises is the correct political obsession, though it requires voters to see any modest recovery in living standards as sustainable under him and at risk under Labour.
Third, it was a terrible night for anyone who thinks tackling climate change is THE SINGLE PRIORITY.
Uxbridge voters said they cared more about the pounds in their pockets today than global warming.
Fourth, the Lib Dems are definitively and importantly back as the important third force in English politics, and are rampant in the West Country again.
Fifth, Boris Johnson may this morning be feeling a twinge of regret that he did not fight the Uxbridge by-election as a platform for his rehabilitation, rather than stomping off in a huff that MPs punished him for lying to them.
Uxbridge, it turns out, even with its slimmer Tory majority than Selby, was winnable. After a recount.
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