Rozina Sabur
Sat, December 16, 2023
Mahmoud Abbas is now 18 years into an elected four-year term - REUTERS/MOHAMMAD HAMED
White House officials fear Mahmoud Abbas will be unable to lead Gaza after the war, even as Joe Biden continues to back a “revitalised” Palestinian Authority (PA) taking control.
The issue has dominated around-the-clock discussions in the White House, where senior officials have spent weeks frantically drafting proposals for how to run Gaza, sources familiar with the talks told The Sunday Telegraph.
America’s private push for Israel to conclude its offensive early in the new year has illuminated not only Joe Biden’s desire to end the war, but also his ideas for what comes next.
It has also exposed a rift between Washington and Israel, with the two allies at odds over how they believe the enclave should be run after hostilities with Hamas cease.
Senior officials have been foregoing sleep as they work to game out plans that might be palatable to all parties involved.
For any to succeed, they stress, it must have the backing of Palestinians, Israel and their Arab neighbours – a high bar to clear given the PA’s rampant corruption and the growing popularity of Hamas in the West Bank.
Concerns abound over Mr Abbas, 88, the president of PA, who is now 18 years into an elected four-year term.
White House officials do not explicitly say Mr Abbas cannot remain in his position. But national security sources have signalled that behind the scenes the US is confronting the “biological reality” of the situation.
One former official said it was likely the administration would be “building up our relationship, and our interactions” with potential replacements.
Antony Blinken, left, said the US is under no illusion that resolving the war and peacekeeping will not be easy - JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS
Dr Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “If your goal was stability and security, it’s always a bad idea to bet on an 88-year-old chain smoker.”
One alternative name circulating is Mohammed Dahlan, the former leader of Fatah in Gaza, who has been living in exile in the United Arab Emirates for the last decade.
Mr Dahlan is powerful, well-connected and particularly influential in the UAE – a key regional powerbroker – where he serves as a close adviser to Abu Dhabi’s powerful ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.
He is said to have played a major role behind the scenes in the Abraham Accords, the 2020 normalisation treaty between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain.
This makes him more palatable to Israel, as does his role in the Oslo peace agreement.
But the extent of his popularity among Gazans is less clear.
He has been accused of presiding over the torture of Hamas captives in the 1990s but denies this.
In a rare interview with the Economist in late October, Mr Dahlan dismissed rumours that he was being lined up as the next leader.
Salam Fayyad, a former PA prime minister, is reportedly favoured by some Egyptian and American officials to lead a new government in Gaza.
Emphasis on a ‘strong man’
Dr Rubin said while Fayyad is “popular” in the West, “behind the scenes, I think the emphasis is going to be on a strong man… and that’s where someone like Mohammed Dahlan comes in”.
He noted Mr Dahlan’s broad regional support and his strong ties with US intelligence officials.
One senior former national security official refused to be drawn on potential replacements for Mr Abbas, citing the sensitivities involved.
Smoke rises above Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip after an Israeli missile strike - SAID KHATIB/AFP
They stressed they would not want to suggest that “the United States is going to be choosing this leader”.
They said “what is probably happening behind the scenes, is that you have American officials asking very tough questions” for what comes next.
US discussions around Gaza’s future appear to accept that one, or several, regional powers will act as a guarantor for the PA.
Two security sources said Jordan, Egypt and the UAE would be critical, while “important conversations” were also occurring with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
One or more of the countries could be called on to act as a “proxy to guarantee the peace and take charge” of rebuilding Gaza, one source added.
In addition to the governance of Gaza, the Biden administration’s post-war planning has two other components: reconstruction and security.
The White House hopes to gain support from the international community, particularly wealthy Arab neighbours, to pay for rebuilding schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructure.
Security remains one of the most intractable issues.
Most Arab states are reluctant to provide their own troops, and Mr Biden has ruled out deploying US soldiers on the ground.
In the words of Ayman Safad, the Jordanian foreign minister, said: “What are the circumstances under which any of us would want to go and be seen as the enemy and be seen as having come to clean up Israel’s mess?”
International presence
However, Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has proposed a demilitarised Palestinian state, guaranteed by an international presence, “whether Nato forces, United Nations forces, or Arab or American forces”.
Mr Sisi’s suggestion has reportedly been given some consideration by the White House, with one senior official suggesting the status of Hamas would be a major factor in the final decision.
The prospect of a UN peacekeeping presence is unlikely to be backed by Israel, which has long felt the international body is biased against it.
The gulf between Joe Biden and the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been publicly exposed in the last week with the US president warning Mr Netanyahu that he “can’t say no” to a two-state solution.
“He has to change this government,” Mr Biden said, in an extraordinary off-the-cuff remark.
Following a conversation with Mr Biden on Tuesday, Mr Netanyahu said there was “disagreement” between the allies over what should happen to Gaza “the day after Hamas”.
Israeli politicians, including prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have shied away from discussing options for the day after in Gaza, insisting that the entire country is focused on the war effort.
But discussions about the future have entered the public discourse, with several influential newspapers running pieces about the need to look ahead.
Yedioth Ahronoth, one of Israel’s largest newspapers, said it favours an American plan to “hand over the keys” to Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE with cooperation with a “revitalised” PA.
Separately, the Israeli news website Walla cited two US administration officials saying Israel has shown greater willingness than it has in the past to discuss plans for Gaza’s future.
In public, however, senior Israeli officials have voiced scepticism about the involvement of the PA, while Washington has questioned Israel’s suggestion of a “buffer zone” inside the Gaza border.
Antony Blinken, America’s top diplomat, put it another way.
“We have no illusions this is going to be easy,” he said during a recent visit to Tel Aviv.
But, he said, “the alternative – more terrorist attacks, more violence, more innocent suffering – is unacceptable.”
US wants shakeup of Palestinian Authority to run Gaza after Hamas
Sat, December 16, 2023
By Samia Nakhoul, Ali Sawafta and Matt Spetalnick
(Reuters) - A succession of top U.S. officials have travelled to the West Bank in recent weeks to meet with Mahmoud Abbas in the hope the 88-year-old – a spectator in the war between Israel and Hamas – can overhaul his unpopular Palestinian Authority enough to run Gaza after the conflict.
An architect of the 1993 Oslo peace accords with Israel that raised hopes of Palestinian statehood, Abbas has seen his legitimacy steadily undermined by Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank, which he oversees. Many Palestinians now regard his administration as corrupt, undemocratic and out of touch.
But in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, President Joe Biden has made it clear that he wants to see a revitalized Palestinian Authority – which Abbas has run since 2005 - take charge in Gaza once the conflict is over, unifying its administration with the West Bank.
Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security advisor, met with Abbas on Friday, becoming the latest senior U.S. official to urge him to implement rapid change. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters after meeting the Palestinian leader in late November that they discussed the need for reforms to combat corruption, empower civil society and support a free press.
Three Palestinian and one senior regional official briefed on the conversations said that Washington's proposals behind closed doors would also involve Abbas ceding some of his control over the Authority.
Under the proposals that have been floated, Abbas could appoint a deputy, hand broader executive powers to his prime minister, and introduce new figures into the leadership of the organization, the Palestinian and regional sources said.
The White House did not provide answers to Reuters questions. The State Department said leadership choices were a question for the Palestinian people and did not elaborate on the steps needed to revitalize the Authority.
In an interview with Reuters at his office in Ramallah, Abbas said he was ready to revamp the Palestinian Authority with new leaders and to hold elections – which have been suspended since Hamas won the last vote in 2006 and pushed the PA out of Gaza – provided there was a binding international agreement that would lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.
That has been something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition have refused to countenance.
"The problem is not changing (Palestinian) politicians and forming a new government, the problem is the policies of the Israeli government," Abbas said in the interview last week, when asked about the U.S. proposals.
While Abbas may accept that his long rule is nearing its end, he and other Palestinian leaders say the U.S., Israel's key strategic ally, must press Netanyahu's government to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state encompassing Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
According to a person in Washington familiar with the matter, Abbas has privately expressed openness to some U.S. proposals for reform of the PA, including bringing in "new blood" with technocratic skills and giving the prime minister's office new executive powers.
While U.S. officials insist they had not proposed any names to Abbas, regional sources and diplomats say some in Washington and Israel favour Hussein al-Sheikh – a senior PLO official - as a possible deputy and future successor.
Washington has appealed to Jordan, Egypt and Gulf states – which have some sway with the PA - to persuade Abbas to pursue institutional reforms with urgency to prepare for the "day after", four U.S. sources said, including two administration officials. Officials in Jordan, Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Abbas has pledged several times to overhaul his administration in recent years and has little to show for it, so senior U.S. officials will continue to push as they wait to see if he will follow through this time, the U.S. sources said.
U.S. officials recognize, however, that Abbas remains the only realistic Palestinian leadership figure for the time being, despite being unpopular among Palestinians and distrusted by Israel, which has denounced his failure to condemn Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
Biden's aides have quietly urged Israeli leaders to drop their resistance to the PA, once it is revitalized, taking a leading role in post-conflict Gaza, according to a senior U.S. administration official , who asked not to be identified because of the confidential nature of the talks.
"There is no other show in town," said another of the U.S. sources. In the short term, Israel needs to unblock more tax transfers to the PA, which it froze in the wake of Oct 7, so it can pay salaries, U.S. officials say.
ISRAEL ADAMANT
Conversations about what happens once the war is over have picked up in recent weeks, but no plan has been presented to Abbas, Palestinian and U.S. diplomatic sources said.
International condemnation of Israel's offensive has risen as the death toll has climbed, approaching 19,000 people on Friday according to Gaza health authorities, but Netanyahu has insisted the war will continue until Hamas is destroyed, hostages returned, and Israel made safe from future attacks.
Israeli forces invaded Gaza in retaliation for Hamas' cross-border rampage in southern Israel more than two months ago in which it killed about 1,200 people and took 240 hostages. On Thursday, Sullivan discussed with Netanyahu moves to shift Israel's attacks on Gaza to lower-intensity operations focused on high-value targets.
The U.S. is also telling Israel that PA security forces eventually must have a presence in Gaza after the war, as they already do in parts of the West Bank, said the senior U.S. official.
Netanyahu said on Tuesday, however, there was disagreement with his American ally about the PA governing Gaza. Gaza "will neither be Hamas-stan nor Fatah-stan," he said.
Founded after the 1993 Oslo accords, the PA, controlled by Abbas' Fatah party, was meant to be an interim administration to lead the way towards an independent Palestinian state. It has been run by Abbas for the past 18 years without achieving that.
U.S. officials think Abbas has potential to regain some credibility among Palestinians if he can show he is rooting out corruption, nurturing a new generation of leaders, mobilising foreign aid to rebuild Gaza after the war and building support abroad for Palestinian statehood.
In his interview with Reuters, Abbas called on the United States to sponsor an international peace conference to agree the final steps leading to a Palestinian state. Such a gathering could be modeled after the 1991 Madrid summit convened by U.S. President George Bush following the 1990-91 Gulf War.
A senior U.S. official said the idea of a conference had been discussed with partners, but the proposal was still at a preliminary stage.
Abbas and other Palestinian leaders believe the U.S. must press Israel harder to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state encompassing Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
"It is the only power that is capable of ordering Israel to stop the war and fulfil its obligations, but unfortunately it doesn't," he told Reuters.
The Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, called on Washington to exert real pressure on Israel through measures such as Security Council votes, stopping arms deliveries and imposing sanctions against settlement expansion.
Blinken announced this month sanctions on Israeli settlers responsible for attacks on Palestinians, but the U.S. government has remained a staunch defender of Israel at the United Nations – rejecting calls for a humanitarian ceasefire – and Biden has pushed through military aid in recent weeks.
"AN AUTHORITY WITHOUT AUTHORITY"
Sari Nusseibeh, a moderate Palestinian from Jerusalem who was president of Al Quds University, said there were misgivings about the PA's monopoly on power, and what he termed its disengagement from reality and its corruption. But he said that without Israel ending its occupation of the West Bank and allowing the creation of a Palestinian state the situation would not improve.
"The problem is not limited to Abbas, because if Abbas goes, no matter who replaces him can do nothing," said Nusseibeh, a professor of philosophy.
Biden aides are grappling with how to provide a "political horizon" for the Palestinians, with the Israeli public in no mood for concessions.
Even in the West Bank, the PA is now unpopular because it is regarded as a subcontractor of the Israeli occupation. Israeli forces often carry out raids into areas under PA rule, including Ramallah.
A poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, published on Wednesday, showed growing popularity for Hamas among Palestinians versus a decline for Abbas, suggesting the militant group might win any elections in Palestinian territories.
Though a ballot is long overdue, the U.S. believes it would be premature to send Palestinians to the polls soon after the war ends. U.S. officials are mindful of Hamas’ victory in 2006 legislative elections, which were encouraged by Washington and other Western governments. Whenever elections are held, Hamas must be excluded, U.S. sources said.
The West Bank is increasingly the site of expanding Israeli settlements and security checkpoints that make Palestinians’ daily journeys arduous. Many complain of a rise in violent attacks: in the past two months, Israelis have killed at least 287 West Bank Palestinians.
"This is an authority without authority," said Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, an independent Palestinian politician whose name has been floated as a possible candidate for prime minister, noting that the PA didn't control its own revenues or security. He said it was the end of Israeli occupation – rather than internal reform – that would legitimize Palestinian leadership.
"Any Palestinian Authority that is going to serve the Israeli occupation is going to be discredited and illegitimate".
Some Palestinian officials say that restoring the authority's credibility would require expanding its base in a national unity administration, governing Gaza and the West Bank, that would include Hamas.
But Washington is adamantly against Hamas leaders playing any role, even as a junior partner, the U.S. officials said. They also said Israel troops should not remain in Gaza for more than an unspecified "transitional" period once the war is over.
"We need something in Gaza. That something cannot be Hamas, which is bad for the people of Gaza and a threat to Israel, and Israel won't stand for it," the senior Biden administration official said. "A vacuum isn't the solution either, because that would be terrible and might give Hamas space to return."
(Additional reporting from Humeyra Pamuk and Matt Spetalnick in Washington, Nidal al-Mughrabi and Aidan Lewis in Cairo, James Mackenzie and Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Ali Sawafta in Ramallah; Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Angus McDowall and Daniel
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