Tuesday, September 10, 2024

China Overpowers US in Africa

Why the US May Not Be the Partner of Choice for a Rising Africa

Published Sep 10, 2024
By Micah McCartney
China News Reporter
NEWSWEEK

Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged $51 billion in financing to Africa, during the summit he hosted for the continent's leaders in Beijing last week. The move comes as the U.S. scrambles to regain influence in the region.

China hosted the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit last week, an event held every three years since 2000. Most of Africa's 53 countries sent delegations to the summit, except for Eswatini—formerly known as Swaziland—which remains the only African nation maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan rather than China.

A few years ago, China-financed megaprojects like bridges, roads, and ports were commonplace in the developing world, including many in Africa. These investments were a key part of President Xi Jinping's signature global development strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative.
China has promised African leaders over $50 billion in financing over the next three years. The pledge comes as China continues to outspend the U.S. in the continent, though the Biden administration is trying to... More Photo Illustration by Newsweek/Getty Images


However, many countries could not repay these loans, leading to allegations in Washington that China was engaging in predatory "debt traps." This criticism became more prevalent as several African nations began experiencing financial strain.

Efforts to restructure or renegotiate Chinese loans became widespread, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic hit, which worsened economic conditions in many countries. Several African nations, including Zambia, Chad, and Ethiopia, were forced to seek debt relief. Zambia, in particular, defaulted on its loans in 2020 and underwent a protracted restructuring process.

By June 2023, Zambia had managed to secure extensions on maturities through its participation in the G20 Common Framework, but not reductions in the principal of the debts, including those to China.


China has shifted its approach to international investments, particularly through the BRI, in the wake of these debt crises and as the world's second largest-economy cools.

Once characterized by large-scale loans for massive infrastructure projects, the initiative now favors smaller, more focused projects, which Chinese officials have touted as "small but beautiful."


When asked how China reconciles this shift toward smaller projects with the new large-scale support it has pledged to Africa, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters she saw no contradiction.

China's foreign direct investment flow to Africa first overtook the U.S.'s in 2008, totaling just under $6 billion, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and China's Ministry of Commerce. From 2013 onwards, Chinese FDI consistently exceeded that of the U.S., and between 2015 and 2022, China's investment flows were more than double those of the U.S.


Since 2021, the Biden administration has made efforts to boost U.S. investment in Africa, Alex Vines, director of the Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, pointed out.

Previously, U.S. development aid had focused on sectors like health, agriculture, and governance. Recently, however, the U.S. has placed more emphasis on infrastructure projects, such as upgrades to the Lobito Corridor railway linking Angola's Lobito Port with the city of Luau.


A Flourish map


"There has been a re-curation of assets and increased footfall of U.S. officials in Africa, alongside initiatives like the Lobito Corridor," Vines said.

Vines said the U.S.'s "Achilles heel" when it comes to engagement with Africa it's the American private sector, which "outside of hydrocarbon investments and access to strategic and critical minerals remains tepid." "This gives China and other U.S. competitors an advantage.

By contrast, many of the new partnerships heralded by China last week were focused on business ties, such as trade, green development, and cooperation on industrial chains and development.

Vines predicted U.S. engagement with Africa would drop further if Republican Party nominee Donald Trump is elected to a second term, citing the former president's "American First" prioritization of reducing trade deficits over foreign investment and aid.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that in 2023, the U.S. exported just under $29 billion in goods to Africa but imported over $38 billion, creating a $10 billion trade deficit.

"This is not what many African states want," Vines said. "They increasingly seek multipolarity, including economic engagement with both China and the U.S."

A Pew Research Center poll released last year surveyed respondents in two African countries, Kenya and Nigeria, about their views of investments from the superpowers.

Among Nigerians, 82 percent said Chinese investment benefited their country, while 74 percent viewed U.S. investment favorably. Meanwhile, 73 percent of Kenyans believed both countries' investments had been beneficial.

Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and U.S. State Department with written requests for comment.


Peak China, a declining USA and the future of Africa

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Photo: Peter Mitchell/Unsplash

Indices to measure soft, hard and smart power are back in vogue to the extent that the Economist magazine devoted two recent editions to its forecasts of China’s power potential (finding that it will shortly peak) and that of the United States (which it argued would remain globally dominant).

At the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures and Innovation programme, we come to somewhat different conclusions using the integrated International Futures forecasting platform (IFs). Using IFs, we recently published a set of global forecasts on how events in the rest of the world could unfold and the impact on Africa two decades into the future. We discussed these alternative scenarios at SIPRI’s 2023 Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development.

Again, Africa has become an area of competition, this time primarily between China and the West, with important implications for the continent’s development potential given the dire impact of superpower competition previously. Russian destabilization also affects Africans through the activities of the Wagner Group and election interference, among others. A long-term view is, however, that its war on Ukraine will inevitably diminish Russia’s status globally, including its role in Africa.

Instead of the dramatic reductions in Chinese growth in the years ahead and a future of parity in economic size between China and the USA, we foresee the Chinese economy overtaking the USA’s in size within about a decade. By the early 2040s, China will surpass the USA in hard power potential. At that point, China will be the single most powerful country in the world. This delay between becoming the largest kid on the block and the strongest kid is down to the considerable time it will take China to match the stock of historical investments the USA has made in its military and to displace the dollar as the global reserve currency. 

Our view is that the Economist's obsession with the single-country top-dog status of the USA is therefore misplaced. In our two extreme scenarios, ‘a Growth World’ and ‘a World at War’, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China is only 40 or 30 per cent of that in the USA by mid-century. While American dominance is in structural decline, the West will likely continue to dominate globally in wealth, technology and global power stakes since it consists of a number of like-minded, high-income countries, including some in Asia. At the same time, many countries in China’s neighbourhood are at odds with the emerging giant and fearful of its growing influence. China will never achieve anything close to the role played by the USA in recent decades.

Doubling down on authoritarianism under Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely also prove self-defeating. There is no replacement in sight for a system where all people have a vote on who governs them. Populism, like terrorism, Covid-19 and other recent concerns, will run its destructive course in the West and be replaced by another sense of crisis in today’s hyper-connected and rapidly changing world. It is unlikely to end the democratic project.

Implications for Africa

In our assessment, the next two decades will bring a more complex, multipolar and less Western world, one in which regional rather than global connectedness is growing. What does this mean for Africa?

Clearly, the pressure for Africans to choose sides in the increasingly acrimonious struggle between China, Russia and the USA does not serve African interests. Africa is now almost equally connected with the European Union, the USA and countries from the Global South (China and India, among others), and the economic momentum is with the latter group. The value of exports from sub-Saharan Africa to China has increased tenfold over the last two decades. China has emerged as an essential source of financing for African countries.

Meanwhile, aid—mainly from EU members and the USA—has fallen from peaks of about 6 per cent of Africa’s GDP in the 1990s to an average of only 2.5 per cent in the past decade as Africa’s economies have increased in size. Aid remains essential for poor countries, but it can no longer purchase loyalty (and votes in the United Nations General Assembly), as it could before the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

More important than aid is foreign direct investment (FDI). Although flows have declined, the stock of FDI from the West in Africa is much larger, and the potential for significant future inflows is greater. China only accounted for 6 per cent of FDI stock in Africa as of the end of 2020, although flows have accelerated in recent years.

Africa accounts for around 3 per cent of global GDP (at market exchange rates). In our most aggressive growth forecast, Africa could almost triple that portion by mid-century. At that point, its population will have increased from 17 per cent of the global total to around 25 per cent, adding to its attraction as the last remaining and growing untapped consumer market. But even in an aggressive growth scenario, most of the world’s extremely poor people will still live in sub-Saharan Africa, and the region will continue to lag on most development indicators. Yet, with the African Union, its 55 states, and an integrated free-trade area, Africa would have a much larger global voice and be an attractive investment destination.

If Africa wants to grow, reduce poverty and provide jobs for its large working-age population, it must trade and engage with China, Europe and the USA and increase its relations with the emerging South but do so on its own terms, much as China has done. It must set clear investment standards, institute full transparency for all government contracts, and insist on taxes being paid where multinationals operate, as well as knowledge transfers and local ownership requirements.

But above all, inclusive economic growth in Africa requires global stability, particularly an end to the competition between China and the USA for influence on the continent, including efforts to align foreign policy orientation on matters such as Taiwan or Ukraine.

Instead, development in Africa requires the international community to knuckle down and make the hard choices necessary to create a future that accommodates all of humanity, particularly reform of the global financial architecture as outlined in a recent and bold UN policy brief.

In all of the above, Europe steadily emerges as the swing region globally, moderating and bridging these global divisions. Its future is inevitably closely tied to that of Africa through history, migration, the resources to power the Fourth Industrial Revolution, trade, and the normative impact of policies on data privacy and climate justice.

 

SIPRI is pleased to share a series of guest blog posts from partners of the 2023 Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

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Jakkie Cilliers is the founder and former executive director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). He currently serves as chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme at the Pretoria office of the ISS.


Iran demands 'equal footing' with Kuwaiti and Saudi plans to drill for gas in Gulf
Three Gulf countries battle over the Arash/Durra field. / bne IntelliNews

By Newsbase Gulf bureau September 10, 2024

A senior Iranian military figure on 10 September called on the oil and foreign ministries to push for Iran's right to develop a disputed gas field in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has been locked in a long-standing tug-of-war with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia over the Arash field, referred to as Durra by the two Arab countries. Iran stresses that Arash/Durra is a shared gas field, while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia insist that, as per a seismic survey conducted by British energy giant Shell, the gas field lies “entirely” within their territorial waters, making its natural resources their exclusive property, Tasnim reported.

Pursuing the development of the Arash gas field is “more necessary than you know bread and butter,” said Brigadier General Abdolreza Abed, who runs Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters (KAA). KAA is the powerful economic arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which is sanctioned by the US.

Abed said that when it came to the Arash gas field, “Iran and Kuwait are on an equal footing and have equal interests.”

“There is no reason for them (Kuwait) to take a back seat to Iran in this gas field," he added.

He again announced that the KAA was geared to develop the Arash gas field, a direct challenge to the joint Saudi-Kuwaiti projects earmarked for the offshore site.



“We are all set to kick off drilling in the Arash field, and we have drilling rigs, but the Oil Ministry and the Foreign Ministry need to step up and set the stage for work to begin,” Abed said.

The CEO said the Kuwaiti side had already teamed up with Saudi Arabia in developing the Arash field. “We should not just sit back and watch,” he pointed out.

Earlier in May, Abed said, “40% of Arash belonged to the Islamic Republic of Iran,” rejecting claims by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia that Iran had no shares in the gas field.

Iran says a seismic survey by the Iranian Offshore Oil Co. (IOOC), which is a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), shows that 40% of the gas field's reserves fall within Iranian waters, but despite Kuwait's insistence, the Islamic Republic has not asked any foreign independent company for exploration operations and has not handed over the result of the IOOC’s study to the two other claimants to Arash/Durra.

Abed said at the time that “Iran's lack of determination” to tap into Arash’s resources prompted Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to start exploiting the gas field.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia signed a deal in 2022 to jointly develop the gas field. In October, the deputy CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said the gas field was expected to be fully commissioned by 2029.

In July 2023, then-Kuwaiti oil minister Saad al-Barrak asked Iran to validate its claim to the field by demarcating its maritime borders. But later in the same month, he said Kuwait would start drilling and begin production at the gas field without waiting for border demarcation with Iran.

The Arash/Durra gas field is located in the Persian Gulf. The field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic feet (566bn cubic metres) of natural gas and 310mn barrels of gas condensate in its proven reserves. Assessments suggest that $7bn is needed to develop the underwater reservoir.

The field was discovered 60 years ago. Iran has held inconclusive negotiations with Kuwait for three decades to determine the maritime borders.

Tehran, every now and then, calls for “technical and legal talks” to hash out the decades-long dispute.
Tyreek Hill: Miami Dolphins condemn 'despicable' police behaviour after bodycam footage released

The player was dragged out of his car, forced to lie face down on the road and handcuffed, and while he was on the ground, one officer put a knee on his back and held his wrists against his lower back.



Tuesday 10 September 2024



The Miami Dolphins NFL team has condemned police conduct towards their player Tyreek Hill as "violent", "maddening" and "despicable".

Bodycam footage of the incident released on Monday showed officers dragging Hill out of his car, before forcing him to lie face down on the road and handcuffing him.
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While he was on the ground, one officer put a knee on his back, holding the player's wrists against his lower back.

Image:An officer put a bar hold around Hill’s upper chest or neck. Pic: Miami-Dade Police Department/Reuters

Tyreek Hill. Pic: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports/Reuters

Hill, 30, was pulled over as he approached the team's home stadium ahead of the first game of the new season on Sunday.

Three police officers detained the wide receiver near the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens in an incident that has provoked claims of biased policing.


During the video that shows Hill being dragged out of his McClaren sports car and forced to the floor after the footballer put up the window of his sports car, an officer can be heard saying "if we tell you to do something, do it".

The officer who pulled Hill from the car then jumped behind him and put a bar hold on his upper chest under Hill's neck.

More on Miami

The Dolphins condemned what they called "overly aggressive and violent" conduct by the police.

The team said in a statement posted on X that the police action was "maddening and heartbreaking".

Officers dragged Tyreek Hill out of his car. Pic: Miami-Dade Police Department/Reuters

Tyreek Hill was forced to lie face down on the ground. Pic: Miami-Dade Police Department/Reuters

Calling for "swift and strong action against the officers who engaged in such despicable behaviour", the statement said it was "a reminder that not every situation like this ends in peace... 'What if I wasn't Tyreek Hill?' is a question that will carry with resounding impact."



Hill told NBC News, Sky's US partner on Monday: "It just went from nought to 60, man, from the moment that those guys pulled up behind me, knocked on my window.

A representative for the police union said Hill was at fault for not being "immediately" cooperative with officers, NBC said. An officer involved in the stop has been suspended pending an investigation.

Hill's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said his client was charged with reckless driving and driving without a licence.

Hill thanked teammates - tight end Jonnu Smith and defensive lineman Calais Campbell - who were driving by, saw him being detained and stopped to help.

 WWIII

Malaysia's firm stand on South China Sea crucial

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's recent statement that Malaysia will not yield to China's demand to immediately cease hydrocarbon exploration activities in its contested waters in the South China Sea sends a strong message.

That Kuala Lumpur is unwavering in its commitment to safeguard its sovereignty and economic interests.

This firm stance reflects Malaysia's longstanding policy of defending its rights and interests in the region while seeking peaceful resolutions to disputes and maintaining diplomatic engagement with other claimants.

The classified content of Beijing's diplomatic note, sent to the Malaysian embassy in February 2024, came to light when The Philippine Daily Inquirer, one of the Philippines' leading daily newspapers, reported on it on August 29.

China reportedly accused Malaysia of encroaching on its claimed territory within the 10-dash line and demanded KL to immediately halt all activities in the area. This is not the first time Beijing has issued a diplomatic note protesting KL's actions in disputed areas of the South China Sea.

Sending diplomatic notes is a standard practice among sovereign nations to convey official messages and positions on various issues. Among rival claimants in disputes, such formal communications are commonly used to express displeasure and to lodge protests.

The content of these classified diplomatic notes is rarely revealed to the public. However, the recent leak published by a Filipino media outlet is an exception, revealing sensitive details without authorisation from either party.

Malaysia's approach can be perceived as a balancing act - asserting its sovereignty and protecting its economic interests while maintaining a close diplomatic relationship with China. Anwar's recent statements suggest a more assertive stance, albeit still rooted in diplomacy. Malaysia is committed to using peaceful means and avoiding provocation or hostility towards other claimants.

In contrast to other claimants, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, Malaysia has traditionally opted for a more discreet and diplomatic approach in its dealing on the South China Sea dispute with China. Kuala Lumpur has frequently refrained from openly criticising Beijing, influenced in part by the enduring ties between the two countries.

China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for more than a decade, bolstered by over 50 years of strong diplomatic relations. The emphasis on diplomacy reflects Malaysia's recognition of China as a significant partner while also underscoring the necessity of defending its own territorial claims and economic rights.

Anwar has made it clear that Malaysia is not willing to compromise on its sovereignty or economic interests within its maritime territory in the South China Sea.

The vital contribution of the oil and gas industry to Malaysia's energy security, export revenues and economic growth cannot be overstated. The country's major offshore oil and gas fields are predominantly located in this semi-enclosed sea. Among them, the Kasawari gas field, situated adjacent to the contested Luconia Shoals off the coast of Sarawak, is crucial for Malaysia's future energy sector.

Significant investments have been made in surveying, constructing and operating this field, which is set to become part of the world's largest offshore Carbon Capture and Storage project when it begins full operation next year.

Despite this, Beijing has demanded that the project cease operations, claiming the field falls within its claim. Given the considerable investment in the project and its clear location within Malaysia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), it would be unreasonable for us to even consider halting its operations.

Anwar's firm response to Beijing's demands can be viewed as a calculated and strategic move to stand firm when confronting China on sensitive issues such as maritime territorial disputes. This move sends a clear message that Malaysia will not yield on matters of national importance.

The timing of the release of this leaked diplomatic note by a Filipino media outlet coincides with a series of recent tense encounters between the Chinese coast guard and Philippine supply vessels near the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands.

This disclosure has compelled Malaysia not only to clarify its position on the South China Sea dispute to its Asean partners but also to forcefully reaffirm its longstanding stance to the international community on the sensitive issues surrounding the area - a region marked by competing territorial claims as well as geo-strategic and economic importance.

Nowhere is the need for clarification more evident than in Malaysia's response to China's increasingly provocative actions within its EEZ. As Malaysia prepares to assume the Asean Chairmanship next year, its role in facilitating negotiations to finalise a legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and persuading China to accept it will be closely scrutinised, especially by other claimants.

Malaysia's effort, if successful, in guiding China to accepting this binding instrument could set a significant precedent for regional maritime governance and stability in the years to come.


* The writer is Associate Professor and Director, Asian Institute of International Affairs and Diplomacy, School of International Studies, Universiti Utara Malaysia


China tells Philippines to rethink relations amid South China Sea tensions


Story by Firstpost • 1d • 

Members of the Philippine Coast Guard stand alert as a Chinese Coast Guard vessel blocks their way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Reuters© Copyright (C) https://firstpost.com. All Rights Reserved.

China called on the Philippines to "seriously consider the future" of a relationship "at a crossroads" in a Monday commentary published by the People's Daily, the newspaper of the governing Communist Party, amid tensions in the South China Sea.

The Philippines and China have exchanged accusations of intentionally ramming coast guard vessels in the disputed waterway in recent months, including a violent clash in June in which a Filipino sailor lost a finger.

The incidents have overshadowed efforts by both nations to rebuild trust and better manage confrontations, including setting up new lines of communication to improve handling maritime disputes.

"China-Philippines relations stand at a crossroads, facing a choice of which way to go," the commentary said. "Dialogue and consultation is the right path, as there is no way out of the conflict through confrontation."

Manila "should seriously consider the future of China-Philippines relations and work with China to push bilateral relations back on track," it added.

The commentary was published under the pen name "Zhong Sheng", meaning "Voice of China", which is often used to give the paper's view on foreign policy issues.

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Portions of the waterway, where $3 trillion worth of trade passes annually, are believed to be rich in oil and natural gas deposits, as well as fish stocks.


The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 found China's sweeping claims had no legal basis, a ruling Beijing rejects.

In June, the United States reaffirmed its commitment to the Philippines' security, after Manila accused China of a "deliberate action" to stop the resupply of Philippine troops stationed at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

In Monday's commentary, China blamed the Philippines for "the so-called 'humanitarian' problem" that Filipino sailors aboard what China considers "an illegally stranded ship" at nearby Sabina Shoal had no access to supplies, adding "the people aboard are absolutely allowed to leave."

Have lab-grown diamonds changed the diamond industry forever?

Have lab-grown diamonds changed the diamond industry forever?
Artificial diamonds are chemically and physically indistinguishable from "earth diamonds" but they are also much cheaper. That is causing a revolution in the diamond business. / bne IntelliNews



By Richard Chetwode in London August 28, 2024

Kodak never saw it coming either.

Since early 2022, the price of polished natural diamonds has fallen approximately 40% and the industry is being buffeted by negative economic headwinds, an excess of mine supply and too much stock in the cutting centres. However, there is one statistic that cannot be ignored: around 50% of Diamond Engagement Rings purchased in the United States now contain a Lab Grown Diamond (LGD). Is this just another cyclical downturn or are we in the middle of a major structural change?

Diamonds were once the preserve of royalty and the uber-wealthy, but the diamond market has evolved over the past 80 years into more of a mass market product with democratisation of the diamond consumer. Since the late 1970s most polished diamonds below 5 carats were priced against the 4 ‘C’s’ (carat, clarity, colour and cut), which led to standardised pricing in the form of polished diamond pricing lists. Up until the turn of the century these lists were primarily available in the wholesale market, but the arrival of internet pricing soon gave the consumer access to that same standardised pricing. In a world where everyone knows the price of everything, branding is the only differentiator. Without a differentiator, commoditised products end up selling for the lowest price.

It was why one of the questions that De Beers tried to answer when it changed its business model 25 years ago was: “How do you take a necessity (the diamond) priced like a commodity and market it as a luxury priced like a brand?”

Unfortunately, that question remains unanswered. The industry did create hundreds of so-called ‘brands’; origin, cut, settings, etc; the problem was that very few of them were real “brands”. If something does not sell at a premium, it’s not a brand, and most natural diamonds sell at a discount, yet the more that the industry was unable to achieve a premium, the more it becomes fixated with talking about the “product” when the luxury world has spent the last 25 years talking about “values”.

The challenge for most jewellers is not making a sale, it is making a reasonable margin. Ask a jeweller what they are selling and if they reply “VS1, G-H colour, loose polished, 1-caraters” then the most relevant word in their business will be “discounting”, because what they are selling is a commoditised version of “crystallised carbon.” There is no differentiator.

The LGD industry realised that to succeed it simply needed to persuade consumers that natural diamonds and LGDs were the same – “optically, physically and chemically”, but to also position them as “slightly cheaper”. They could then ride on the back of 80 years of De Beers diamond advertising differentiate themselves by claiming that LGDs were “conflict free”.

A larger “ethical” LGD for the same money as a natural diamond or pay less for the same size, created a money printing machine for everyone involved. And it's no surprise that LGDs real success has been in the United States, because historically America has always been a “discount market”, and “larger for less” plays to that tune.

If all you want in a diamond is the sparkle, then they are in essence the same. Except there is a very real difference between the two, which is why some LGD executives insist on calling natural diamonds “earth mined” diamonds, because “natural” is exactly what differentiates them. The story of their age, rarity, origin; their social and economic contribution but above all, their “social purpose”. It was the failure of the natural diamond industry to tell that story which opened the door to LGDs.

When LGD production exploded, wholesale prices collapsed to around a 95% to 98% discount to their natural diamond equivalent. Prices vary according to quality, but anecdotal evidence suggests that today in the wholesale market, it is possible to buy a single polished LGD for $150 a carat, buy in volume and its possible to pay as low as $80 a carat.

Many retailers have also dropped their LGD prices, but by no means as far, and even pricing LGD at a 20-40% discount to their natural diamond equivalent can still leave a very significant margin. Pandora will sell you a 1-carat LGD ring for $1,950. Helzberg Jewellers (a Warren Buffet company) will sell you a similar LGD for $1,999. It’s very likely that some in the LGD industry are making a gross margin of 200%, some much more for a product that Signet Jewellers sensibly cautiones it customers “Their relative abundance may not ensure the value will hold over time”.

Whatever happens to future LGD retail prices, the category has got itself into the American consumer psyche and that won’t easily change, although there are also two sides to this story. I heard of a jeweller who was recently asked by a HNWI to make a replica of her 8-carat natural diamond ring so she could wear it travelling. The original ring cost $500,000 but he sourced an equivalent LGD for $5,000, and apparently she was absolutely thrilled with it. The question is, will she buy natural again? On the other hand, if in the future a consumer could buy (for example) a 2-carat LGD engagement ring for below $200, how pleased would their fiancé be to receive it – Walmart recently had a 2-carat LGD ring for sale for only $257. How romantic!

The US bridal market (size over quality) is dominated by larger, lower quality diamonds. Since similar sized LGDs are cheaper (or you get a much better quality LGD), either that market disappears, or demand only reappears aner prices have fallen sharply (already happened). It is also likely that LGDs will replace small, lower quality natural diamonds in fashion jewellery – as they may replace the smaller stones in high-end pieces of natural diamond jewellery. Diamond mining companies whose profitability rely on these categories of diamonds probably need to find a new value proposition, or their days may be numbered.

For those in the natural diamond industry who can adapt, there is huge potential. For those that don’t, as the saying goes, “Kodak never saw it coming either”.

Except Kodak did see it coming; they just didn’t know what to do about it. Kodak was killed off by digital photography which ironically, they invented, patented, but didn’t know how to exploit it, so they franchised the technology and made a fortune until their patents expired, and then went bust. Have LGDs done the same to natural diamonds? “No”, the opposite; their success is forcing a complacent industry to change. Have they changed the paradigm? “Completely”.

 

Richard Chetwode holds a number of non-executive roles in the diamond and property industry. He is a part-time journalist and is currently writing a book on the diamond industry in World War II. All the opinions in this article are his own but while efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in this article, neither can be guaranteed. and information in this ar9cle is strictly for informational purposes and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Consult your investment professional before making any investment decisions. He is non-executive chairman of Namibian-based Trustco Resources and has previously worked for De Beers, Harry Winston, Dominion Diamonds and Gem Diamonds.

 

Iraq’s Nasiriyah records world's highest temperature at 48.7°C

Iraq’s Nasiriyah records world's highest temperature at 48.7°C

By bne Gulf bureau September 10, 2024

The Iraqi city of Nasiriyah has recorded the world's highest temperature in the past 24 hours, reaching a scorching 48.7°C (119.7°F), according to data from the American Placerville station index.

The Nasiriyah News Network reported that the Placerville station's data showed 15 cities worldwide registering extremely high temperatures due to climate change effects.

Nasiriyah topped the list, followed closely by Basra, another Iraqi city, which recorded 48°C (118.4°F).

This extreme heat event highlights the increasing impact of global warming on regions already prone to high temperatures.

Iraq, particularly its southern regions, has been experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves in recent years with several cities in the country and neighbouring Iran and Kuwait recording record temperatures.

Local authorities have not yet commented on any measures being taken to address this extreme weather event or to protect vulnerable populations from the heat.

Earlier on September 6, power grids across the Middle East faced unprecedented strain this summer, according to new data from the region.

Throughout the summer, Iraq has been urging residents to turn down their air conditioning units with record temperatures recording in Basra and in nearby Kuwait throughout the hot summers.

Baghdad has moved to rectify its failing infrastructure with negotiations with French Total for the construction of new power plants adding an extra 1,000 MW to the local grid to offset the increasing demand.

Mahdi Salih Mathkour, director general of the Southern Electricity Production Company, met with TotalEnergies representatives to review preparations for the solar power plant project in Basra's Artawi region, according to a ministry statement.

Iran's electricity demand has surged to unprecedented levels this summer, reaching nearly 80,000 megawatts (MW) and straining the country's power grid, officials said to the semi-official Mehr News Agency.

The Republic’s state-run power company Tavanir reported that on August 8, electricity consumption peaked at 79,872 MW - about 10% higher than the same period last year — while the country and major cities faced increasingly long black and brownouts through the period.

At least one weather station in the south of the country on the Gulf reached a heat index of 82.2°C (180°F) and a dew point of 36.1°C (97°F), which, if confirmed, would be the highest such readings ever recorded on Earth.

 

Ukraine hits Moscow with huge drone attack setting buildings on fire and leaving at least one dead

10 September 2024

Ukraine has hit Russia with a huge drone attack
Ukraine has hit Russia with a huge drone attack. Picture: Alamy

By Emma Soteriou

Ukraine has hit Moscow in one of its biggest drone attacks on Russia, with at least one dead and buildings destroyed

Russia said it had downed more than 140 Ukrainian drones in one of the biggest attacks by Kyiv since the war began.

It included "72 UAVs over Bryansk region, 20 over Moscow region, 14 over Kursk region, 13 over Tula region".

There were a further 25 shot down over five other areas.

Moscow's regional governor Andrey Vorobyov confirmed on Telegram that a 46-year-old woman had died near Moscow, with several others injured.

Two high-rise apartment buildings were damaged in the Ramenskoye district - just 30 miles southeast of the Kremlin.

Read more: Ukraine 'to hold seized Russian territory' indefinitely, as strikes on Poltava kill 50 and injure 270

Read more: Zelenskyy fires Ukraine's air force chief after F16 jet downed in fatal crash

Andrey Vorobyov at the destroyed building
Andrey Vorobyov at the destroyed building. Picture: Telegram

Providing an update, Mr Vorobyov said: "I arrived in Ramenskoye — to the house on Sportivny Proezd that was damaged by a drone strike.

"The panelling, partitions between rooms and window openings were damaged. The supporting structures are intact. In total, 54 out of 102 apartments in the first entrance were damaged.

"On Vysokovoltnaya Street, the strike hit 5 balconies — they caught fire, but the fire did not spread to the apartments themselves. There are drone fragments on the ground that need to be cleared. Therefore, for safety reasons, we decided to evacuate residents of five neighbouring houses.

"All emergency services continue to work at both houses. Around eight in the evening, the Ministry of Emergency Situations will inform when it will be possible to enter the apartments. We will try to provide this information earlier.

"For our part, we, of course, undertake the restoration and repair of apartments, as well as compensation for damaged property."

Alexander Li, a resident of the district, told Reuters: "I looked at the window and saw a ball of fire.

"The window got blown out by the shockwave."

Four airports servicing Moscow have since been forced to delay or cancel flights, state media reported.

A major road leading to the capital is also understood to have been partially closed.

Ukrainian drone strikes Moscow

More than 70 drones were also downed over Russia's Bryansk region, Russia's defence ministry said.

There was no damage or casualties reported there.

Russia claimed the attacks were akin to "terrorism" as a civilian building was targeted.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine over the attacks on Tuesday.

Both sides have denied targeting civilians in the war but they have died in attacks from both sides.

Ukrainian drones strike Domodedovo International Airport in Moscow

REVANCHIST REACTIONARIES 
Australian farmers protest against animal, environment policies they say harm them

Protesters holding up signs during a national farmers rally outside Parliament in Canberra, Australia. PHOTO: EPA-EFE

Sep 10, 2024

CANBERRA - Hundreds of farmers from across Australia held a protest on Sept 10 against government farming policies that they said were influenced by environmental and animal welfare activists, and which were harming their livelihoods.

Australia is one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters, and farmers nationwide have been increasingly angry with the centre-left Labor government, which has sought to ban exports of live sheep, restrict water use and accelerate construction of renewable power and transmission in rural areas.

“We deserve to be respected,” National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) President David Jochinke told a crowd on the lawn in front of Australia’s federal Parliament in Canberra.

“There are alternative voices that are united against us. We don’t think they are the ones that should be setting the policy,” he said. “We feel like we are getting stiffed.”

The government did not send a representative to the rally.

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) the government was committed to listening and had helped farmers by expanding overseas market access and investing in biosecurity.

The NFF said more than 2,000 people attended what was its first nationwide rally of farmers in the capital since the 1980s.

The protest is part of a wave of unrest in Europe and elsewhere aimed at governments imposing environmental regulations that farmers say burden them with red tape and higher costs, as well as limiting their ability to farm.

“Our message is clear: Talk to us,” Mr Jochinke said.

Federal elections are due in Australia by May 2025 and farm lobby leaders say they will try to eject Labor by raising money and targeting marginal seats.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton told the rally he would reverse a ban on live sheep exports, and the opposition agriculture spokesman said he was against water restrictions.

“We have your backs,” Mr Dutton said.

Australian farmers have seen several years of bumper production thanks to plentiful rain, but pessimism is rife.

“Under this government there’s no future for agriculture in Australia,” said Mr Will Croker, a 32-year-old livestock farmer from New South Wales. “It’s not right.” 

REUTERS
Feeding the fire

To keep the left out of government, Macron is ignoring the will of the voters and courting the right, plunging French democracy into a deep crisis
picture alliance/dpa/Sina Schuldt

Democracy and society 
10.09.2024 |

Who could have guessed that after the hard-fought victory of the left-wing alliance in the early parliamentary elections, the trailing conservatives would now benefit from the weakness of the Macron camp? In fact, they are now teaming up with Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National.

The developments of the last week are so dizzying that it is difficult to find words for what has been fabricated in the president’s Élysée Palace. Alternative facts? Theft of democracy? A right-wing coup? For weeks, President Emmanuel Macron was in no hurry to appoint a new government. He flatly refused to appoint the candidate of the left-wing alliance, Lucie Castets, as prime minister, as would have been correct democratic practice. By appointing Michel Barnier, he has now turned everything the French electorate voted for on its head.
Inevitably tied to the far right

Because with Barnier, a representative of the French right-wing conservatives Les Républicains is now in power — a party that was only the fifth strongest party in the early parliamentary elections and only won 41 out of 577 seats. The Eurosceptic Republicans had refused to actively fight against the far-right, the so-called Republican Front, in the course of the elections. What is even grimmer is that Barnier will only be able to govern ‘under the supervision’ of the far-right Rassemblement, as it is in fact Le Pen who holds the fate of the Barnier government in her hands. The Rassemblement, which became the strongest party in the elections with 123 seats in the National Assembly, is ultimately only the third force in French democracy, given the left-wing and centrist alliances.

Barnier’s government, which will have to deal with a parliament that is two-thirds hostile to the president, will inevitably have to seek the support of the Rassemblement for every project. The latter has promised not to vote Barnier out of office ‘immediately’, but to ‘scrutinise’ him. The ranks of the far-right alliance made it clear at the weekend: ‘If Barnier is Macron’s little telegraph operator, we’ll vote him out!’ The disgraced election winners, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, announced on the day of the nomination that they would seek a vote of no confidence in Barnier. With 192 seats, the left-wing alliance partners have a relative majority in the Assemblée.


Macron’s main concern, despite all his tactics, seems to have been to ensure that no government sets about reversing his neoliberal project after the parliamentary elections.

This means that Barnier’s government will always need the support of the Rassemblement National in order to survive. Barnier, who has already held a number of high political offices, including minister and EU commissioner, and most recently led the Brexit negotiations for the EU, must realise that he needs to build up a certain distance to Macron, even if some see him as a disappointed Macronist. After all, Le Pen’s support will undoubtedly come at a price. ‘We want to see clear changes of course’, Le Pen has already announced. Certain compromises should not be too difficult for Barnier. On the day of his appointment, left-wing media recalled that he had already shocked many in his party’s nomination contest for the 2022 presidential elections with calls for France to ‘free itself’ from the EU treaty corset. Barnier was referring to migration policy and had even called for a moratorium on immigration at the time.

Macron’s main concern, despite all his tactics, seems to have been to ensure that no government sets about reversing his neoliberal project after the parliamentary elections, despite the left’s plans for pensions and social spending. In 73-year-old Barnier, he has logically found his perfect candidate: an experienced negotiator, technocrat, right-wing conservative and, above all, loyal, without any new personal ambitions for the presidency. Barnier himself spoke out in favour of a retirement age of 65 years ago in the battle over France’s retirement age — he is also in line with Macron in this respect. Perhaps the upcoming ministerial appointments will reveal something about whether conservatism is now celebrating its comeback in France with Barnier and whether Macronism is coming to an end.

The frustrated left-wing alliance is licking its wounds. Initially, it will also be a question of fending off the flimsy narrative of ‘guilt’. In recent weeks, Macron has skilfully managed to make it look as if the left is responsible for its own inability to govern due to internal tensions. Yet, in an authoritarian interpretation of the constitution, Macron overstepped his role and did everything he could to keep the left out of government. The fact that he is turning constitutionalists against him, ignoring the will of the voters and even actively courting the goodwill of the far right illustrates the extent of the crisis in French democracy. Barnier, that much is clear, will have to tread a very fine line and may soon fall.

Adrienne Woltersdorf
Adrienne Woltersdorf
Paris

Adrienne Woltersdorf heads the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung office in Paris. She was head of the FES Communications Unit and the Office for Regional Cooperation in Asia, based in Singapore, as well as the FES office in Afghanistan. She previously reported for the Tageszeitung newspaper in Berlin and Washington, as well as leading Deutsche Welle’s China programme.

FORDISM IS GLOBALIZATION & PROLETARIANIZATION

Kia names launch date of plant in Kazakhstan's Kostanay region


Photo: Press Service of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Madina Usmanova
Kazakhstan Materials 
10 September 2024 

ASTANA, Kazakhstan, September 10. Kia car plant in the Kostanay region of Kazakhstan will be launched in October 2025, said General Director of the enterprise Kim Dae-Ki, Trend reports.

He made the remark during a visit by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the plant, the construction of which began in October 2023.

"The first test vehicle is expected to roll off the assembly line in July next year. The plant will be launched in October 2025, and at the initial stage, the car company plans to produce the Sorento model. The updated Sportage model will be produced from January 2026," he said.

Tokayev was also informed that the plant's design capacity is approximately 70,000 cars per year. The plant will create 1,500 permanent jobs. It is planned to use technological solutions that ensure high efficiency and environmental friendliness of production. It will be a modern, automated enterprise equipped with 70 robots on the welding, painting, and assembly lines of cars.

The cost of the project is $200 million, of which about 80 percent is direct foreign investment.

Noteworthy that, during the visit, Tokayev was also presented with a project to create a cluster of components next to the new plant. Construction of the Localization Center has already begun. Kia is pulling out all the stops to bring in global suppliers of components and spare parts for cars.