Over two-million acres of floodplain development occurred in U.S. in last two decades, study finds
Roughly half of all residential floodplain development in U.S. was built in Florida
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view moreCredit: Armen Agopian, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science
A nationwide analysis of community-level floodplain development found that over two-million acres of floodplain were developed over the past two decades across the United States, with roughly half of all new floodplain housing built in Florida.
These findings from scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science provide new information on patterns of floodplain development that pose a potential risk to people and communities in regions like the Southeastern U.S. that are especially prone to flooding.
In the new study, researchers combined geospatial land use, impervious surface, and housing data with information from digitized regulatory floodplain maps to measure new floodplain development for communities across the U.S. The analysis, published in the journal Earth’s Future, found that over 840,000 new residential properties were built in the floodplain across the U.S. with about 398,000 of those built in Florida, which represents 21 percent of all new housing built in the state and the highest total of any U.S. state.
“Given the size of floodplains and amount of new overall housing growth, those figures are actually much less than we would expect,” said the study’s lead author Armen Agopian, a Ph.D. student in the Abess graduate program at the Rosenstiel School.
The researchers note that if new housing was distributed proportionally to the share of floodplain land in Florida, they would expect to see 40% of new housing built in the floodplain.
They also found that 74 percent of communities across the United States have limited new development in floodplains, and 87 percent have limited new housing in floodplains through local government regulations and practices. The analysis also found that coastal communities are more likely to concentrate new development and housing in floodplains as compared to inland communities.
The study revealed that communities that participate in FEMA’s Community Rating System, a voluntary incentive program that rewards communities that adopt certain practices with discounted flood insurance rates, were found to have a higher likelihood of floodplain development.
“Communities with a flood problem enroll in the program, but participating alone isn’t enough to support safer development patterns. Instead, communities need both to participate and to improve their floodplain management practices—those are the ones that start to limit floodplain development,” said Agopian.
Development in flood-prone areas is a major driver of increases in flood-related damage, increasing both the likelihood that a flood will impact people and infrastructure and the severity of harm when it does.
This study is the first comprehensive dataset measuring floodplain development outcomes, community by community, nationwide. To date, most research on flood damage and actions has focused on the places that have experienced big floods with homes destroyed or lives lost.
“What we find is that many communities around the nation have taken smart action early on, avoiding development in their floodplains from the start. There’s a lot we can learn from these communities that are often with little fanfare avoiding flood problems from the start,” said senior author of the study Katharine Mach, professor and chair of the Rosenstiel School Department of Environmental Science and Policy.
The study was supported by National Science Foundation grants (# 2034308, # 2034239 and # 2033929), the Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, and the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
About the University of Miami and Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science
The University of Miami is a private research university and academic health system with a distinct geographic capacity to connect institutions, individuals, and ideas across the hemisphere and around the world. The University’s vibrant and diverse academic community comprises 12 schools and colleges serving more than 19,000 undergraduate and graduate students in more than 180 majors and programs. Located within one of the most dynamic and multicultural cities in the world, the University is building new bridges across geographic, cultural, and intellectual borders, bringing a passion for scholarly excellence, a spirit of innovation, a respect for including and elevating diverse voices, and a commitment to tackling the challenges facing our world. With more than $413 million in research and sponsored program expenditures annually, the University of Miami is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU).
Founded in 1943, the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science is one of the world’s premier research institutions in the continental United States. The School’s basic and applied research programs seek to improve understanding and prediction of Earth’s geological, oceanic, and atmospheric systems by focusing on four key pillars:
*Saving lives through better forecasting of extreme weather and seismic events.
*Feeding the world by developing sustainable wild fisheries and aquaculture programs.
*Unlocking ocean secrets through research on climate, weather, energy and medicine.
*Preserving marine species, including endangered sharks and other fish, as well as protecting and restoring threatened coral reefs. www.earth.miami.edu.
Journal
Earth's Future
Method of Research
Observational study
Article Title
A Nationwide Analysis of Community-Level Floodplain Development Outcomes and Key Influences
Article Publication Date
12-Sep-2024
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