June 18, 2026
By Richard Rousseau
Since Israeli-American airstrikes against Iran began, speculators and oil companies have been making huge profits. Airlines and consumers, on the other hand, are the ones losing out. In the face of inflation, only the strength of currencies such as the Swiss franc, and of commodities such as gold, silver, copper and oil, is providing a counterbalance.
Generally speaking, there are more losers than winners in a war. The stock market indices reflect this: since the start of the war on 28 February, the S&P 500 fell by around 8% in the initial weeks, but has since surged to new highs and is now trading substantially above pre-war levels, in line with the tech-focused Nasdaq. While companies are generally in a difficult position due to soaring energy prices, institutions based in the Middle East, including banks, have been targeted by the Iranian regime.
Speculative gains on commodities
Oil and gas price volatility has not been this high since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. Following the strikes against Iran, the price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was around $70 in February, neared $150 in the first few days before falling back below $100. Since the peace deal was announced between Iran and the United States on 14 June, the Brent price has fallen to $83, offering opportunities for high returns to speculators. Some hedge funds specialize in betting on volatility and are profiting from instability in the commodities market.
For example, between 1 and 6 March, the commodities fund managed by Doug King, a London-based trader at RCMA Capital, surged by 9.5%. Year-to-date, it has gained 20%, thanks to bets on oil, European gas, base metals, coal and agriculture:
The fund managed by Ron Ozer, a trader at Statar Capital in Florida, gained 6.25% in the first week of the conflict thanks to its natural gas investments. Meanwhile, the energy-focused Saber Capital fund from Barclays Bank also gained 6.7% in the first week, with results reaching 13.5% by the end of April. Others profited from bullish bets on gold, silver, copper and tin. Market commentators anticipate that the gains will continue as commodity volatility shows no signs of abating.
Super profits for oil companies
‘A barrel at $100 is the jackpot,’ said a commentator in Le Monde, referring to the expected profits for TotalEnergies this year. As during the war in Ukraine, oil companies such as the French giant and Britain’s BP have benefited greatly from high oil prices.
As the price per barrel increases, so do these companies’ profit margins. So do their refining margins, which are linked to the prices of diesel and kerosene. TotalEnergies and BP are also major players in the gas market, and gas prices have also skyrocketed. TotalEnergies’ stock price has risen by 28% on the stock market this year, and BP’s by 22%. The stock prices of Exxon, Chevron and Shell are also rising, enriching the portfolios of investors who bought these stocks from the outset.
Gains in the arms industry
As with every war, it is a grim reality that arms stocks are among the big winners. Elbit Systems, an Israeli arms company, has seen its stock rise by 20% since the start of the strikes against Iran, having already gained twice as much during the 2.5 years of war in Gaza as it had over the previous five years.
In the United States, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, has risen 30% since January. The surge began before the conflict in Iran started, but has continued since then. Northrop Grumman, known for its missile defense systems, was up 26% in March.
In Europe, Leonardo, an Italian group, has seen its value increase by 27%, while Dassault, a French company, has seen its value soar by 25%. In contrast, Germany’s Rheinmetall, the big winner of the war in Ukraine whose market value rose from $4.5 billion to $104 billion between October 2021 and October 2022, is not benefiting from the current conflict outside Europe this time.
Cryptos seen as a safe haven
Bitcoin is one of the winners of the war in Ukraine: after a long downtrend in which it lost 50% of its value over the past year, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to reverse this trend since the start of the Israeli-American strikes, gaining 18%. Ethereum, the other major cryptocurrency, has also benefited from the war, rebounding by 22% since the start of the strikes after declining since January.
The crypto community has always promoted the idea that cryptocurrencies play the role of safe haven during turbulent times. However, the Iranian crisis has not vindicated the idea that Bitcoin is a safe haven, but it has offered the clearest real-world test of this theory in the current cycle.
Furthermore, Reuters reports that significant volumes of cryptocurrency funds were transferred from Iranian platforms such as Nobitex to other parts of the world from the outset of the conflict on Saturday, 28 February. The Iranian government cannot control crypto assets in the same way that it controls traditional money. This allows for secure capital flight, even if the volumes — amounting to a few million dollars — have remained modest.
The consumer is the big loser
American and European consumers were the big losers from the return of inflation following the war against Iran. As a result of the global oil shortage, gas prices in the US have risen sharply, increasing by around 40% since the US and Israel began the war. According to data from motor club AAA, gas prices have risen to an average of over $4 per gallon, putting a strain on household budgets nationwide. Higher fuel costs have led to increased transportation costs, which in turn have driven up food prices and the cost of everyday goods. Electricity and heating bills have also increased, as have grocery prices.
Companies weighed down by energy costs
Many companies sensitive to rising energy prices have been penalized. In Europe in particular, companies are more dependent on energy imports than in the US.
Among the biggest losers are airlines. For groups such as Lufthansa (which also owns Swiss) and Air France-KLM, fuel alone often accounts for 20–35% of costs. Fuel prices are also crucial for shipping companies such as the Geneva-based giant MSC and the Danish container shipping firm Maersk, as well as the French company CMA CGM, which has a strong presence in emerging markets.
The booming data center sector is highly energy-intensive and is currently undergoing a historic AI-driven infrastructure boom. It is therefore highly exposed to rising energy costs.
Finally, not all currency and stock market traders have come out of the armed conflict ahead, with some losing out on inflation. Some were on the wrong side of their bets, particularly those who were betting on an expected decline in inflation this year.
About Richard Rousseau
Richard Rousseau, Ph.D., is an international relations expert. He was formerly a professor and head of political science departments at universities in Canada, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and the United Arab Emirates. His research interests include the former Soviet Union, international security, international political economy, and globalization. Dr. Rousseau's approximately 800 books, book chapters, academic journal and scholarly articles, conference papers, and newspaper analyses on a variety of international affairs issues have been published in numerous publications, including The Jamestown Foundation (Washington, D.C.), Global Brief, World Affairs in the 21st Century (Canada), Foreign Policy In Focus (Washington, D.C.), Open Democracy (UK), Harvard International Review, Diplomatic Courier (Washington, C.D.), Foreign Policy Journal (U.S.), Europe's World (Brussels), Political Reflection Magazine (London), Center for Security Studies (CSS, Zurich), Eurasia Review, Global Asia (South Korea), The Washington Review of Turkish and Eurasian Affairs, Journal of Turkish Weekly (Ankara), The Georgian Times (Tbilisi), among others.
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