Why Trump’s Cuba Plan Won’t Work
It is clear that the US wants to conduct some kind of regime change operation in Cuba, egged on by Republican and Democratic hawks, though polling indicates it is not popular within the US, Cuba, or the international community. Figures like Marco Rubio have said that Cuba will need to open their economy up, in a nod to when the island was a completely deregulated vassal for US casino companies, ruled by a pro-US brutal dictator, Fulgencio Batista, who was deposed by the Cuban Revolution led by the Castro brothers and Che Guevara.
The US has been applying maximum pressure on Cuba and negotiating like it did in Venezuela to put a new leader compliant to US interests, perhaps even one of the Castros, reportedly.
The Trump administration says it is getting closer to a “deal” as Venezuela has stopped its partnership with Cuba and Mexico has, according to the White House, stopped sending oil shipments. However, Mexico is still sending some oil and aid, Russia is sending more, and China has also sent help. China’s sustained attacks on the Cuban campaign have brought it diplomatic capital. The narrative of a collapsing support network for Havana is wishful thinking.
Conditions on the island are dire thanks to the US blockade, in place since 1958 but increased by Trump. There are rolling blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day. Hospitals are shutting down wings, and patients have died because respirators lost power. Food is spoiling due to lack of refrigeration, pushing child malnutrition rates to levels not seen since the 1990s. But despite the suffering, Cuba has not budged. Negotiators have said they are “not going anywhere.”
Cubans are reminded daily of what subjugation under the US’s thumb was like, and they see a live demonstration in Venezuela, where the US extracts resources with no regard for the local population. No matter how much the US pushes, Cubans may only be urged to rebel further.
There have been massive youth protests in Cuba, but notably, they rebuke the US and the blockade, throwing out the possibility of an inside coup. Progressives in the US have pushed back, and Cuba’s young population has lost more than 1 million people to emigration (10 percent of the population), which has slowed the economy and decreased the risk of an insurgency. Rich right-wing Cubans are in South Florida. An older, more ideologically-committed population remains.
The history of American interference in Cuba is long and bloody. There was the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. There have been hundreds of assassination attempts against Fidel Castro. There is the ongoing blockade, codified by the Helms-Burton Act. For six decades, Washington has used OFAC to seize Cuban assets. Every tool in the regime change toolbox has been used. None have worked.
What Cuba hawks like Trump, Rubio, Ted Cruz, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Mario Diaz-Balart want is not new. All come from wealthy conservative families, with Rubio, Cruz, and Salazar being of Cuban descent, and they have a personal and ideological vendetta against socialist Cuba – many of their families held positions within the old Batista regime.
They want a throwback to the old pro-US regime that will do the bidding of American corporations and the military. The island is a strategic base for other operations. Washington wants Guantánamo not just for detention but as a staging ground for airstrikes against fishing boats in the Caribbean – strikes that are war crimes according to international law.
Cuba is an older, more resilient regime than the ones the US has successfully toppled. Cuba was the main socialist revolution that spurred anti-colonial revolts throughout Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The Cuban revolutionary government, while blockaded and sanctioned, helped socialist movements in Angola, Bolivia, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, El Salvador, Granada, Colombia, Ethiopia, Congo, Mozambique, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Nicaragua, and elsewhere.
Unlike some of these projects, Cuba’s Communist Party has a deep bench of leadership and a command economy designed to withstand siege. Their universal programs in healthcare, education, and housing have been massive improvements, though the state is deeply authoritarian. The Cuban state has gone through much worse, including the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which wiped out 80% of its economy overnight and left Cuba vulnerable to a coup. Still, the island survived.
Currently, the Trump administration is distracted and bogged down. Washington is managing simultaneous military campaigns in Ukraine, Ecuador, Gaza, Iran, Somalia, Venezuela, and elsewhere, and has signaled it could invade Greenland and Canada. Historically, overstretched empires lose. The idea that the US could focus its full weight on Cuba alone is fantasy.
Cuba has more allies today than in the 1990s, partly due to its medical and security diplomacy. After the earthquake in Haiti, Cuban doctors took the lead when cholera broke out. During COVID, Cuba sent doctors to Italy, South Africa, and Mexico when wealthy nations restricted vaccines and the US tried to block them. That diplomatic capital buys loyalty. Russia is sending oil. China is sending food aid and investment. Canada continues to send tourists and aid. Even Gulf states, US allies, have maintained trade ties. The Cuban revolutionary state is much stronger than hawks project.
Crucially, there are no natural resources worth invading for. Cuba’s main exports are sugar, tobacco, nickel, and biotech. Its main economic sector is tourism. None of these are strategic enough to justify a war. Unlike Iraq, Iran, or Venezuela, Cuba does not possess a resource that would make American corporations lobby hard for intervention.
Finally, there is no popular right-wing opposition backed by US politicians and capital, unlike in Venezuela. In Cuba, the dissident movement is minuscule, not credible, and mostly foreign. There is no right-wing in Cuba. Even within the regime, there seems no interest in a negotiated takeover. If the Castro family – who engineered the socialist revolution in Cuba and others like it – is the Trump admin’s best shot, then they have no shot.
As things stand, the American strategy is based on a fantasy of a compliant vassal state that the Cuban people do not want. The blockade will continue to cause suffering, but it will not bring about surrender. Only diplomatic partnership and humanitarianism can bring lasting progress for the Cuban people.
Joseph Bouchard is a PhD candidate, journalist, and researcher from Québec covering security and geopolitics in Latin America. His articles have appeared in Reason, The Diplomat, The National Interest, Le Devoir, and RealClearPolitics, among others.
When Flotillas Fight for Life, Not Empire
April 10, 2026
Image courtesy of CodePink.
Flotillas have historically been fleets of military vessels—tools of empire designed for swift offensive or defensive operations at sea. The images they evoke are ones of imperial power and looming violence. Just look at the massive US naval buildup that surrounded Iran as part of the recent US attacks.
But peace activists have also developed a new kind of flotilla.
Instead of instruments of war, flotillas have become symbols of peace—acts of humanitarian direct action, civil resistance, and cross-border solidarity. Take the flotillas that have tried to reach Gaza, like the Global Sumud Flotilla. Even though they have been illegally intercepted by the Israeli military, they have educated millions of people worldwide about Israel’s atrocities, activated entire cities to shut down, and offered a beacon of hope to the beleaguered people of Gaza.
As U.S. policy continues to sanction and blockade Cuba—causing immense hardship for the Cuban people—I, along with many others, felt compelled to escalate our own tactics of solidarity by joining the recent flotilla to Cuba as part of the Nuestra América Convoy. Our boat carried 15 tons of aid, part of the more than 40 tons delivered by the convoy.
The United States is currently imposing some of the harshest sanctions on Cuba in recent history, compounding a 67-year blockade that has restricted access to medicine, fuel, and food. But in recent months, the US added another dimension: a naval blockade to severely limit fuel imports, leading to a humanitarian crisis.
In an ideal world, we wouldn’t need fossil fuels—we would already have made a just transition to renewable energy. And while Cuba is working at lightning speed to expand solar power, the current reality is stark: people still need fuel to cook, to transport food, to operate ambulances, to power hospitals, and to keep ventilators running.
The international community has responded to this escalation in U.S. economic warfare with intensified solidarity. Hundreds of thousands of people around the world have been mobilizing to send aid and condemn the US blockade. In March, Progressive International, CODEPINK, and The People’s Forum launched the Nuestra América Convoy, bringing together over 600 people from 33 countries. We came with millions of dollars’ worth of aid—from urgently needed medical supplies to longer-term solutions like solar panels.
While many of my friends boarded planes to Havana, packing every inch of their luggage with medicine, hygiene products, vitamins, and art supplies, I traveled to Mexico to meet the flotilla crew. We spent four days at sea together—activists, journalists, organizers. Some had helped organize the Gaza Sumud Flotilla; others had taken part in mass protests in solidarity with Palestine.
Our goal was to deliver much-needed aid to the people of Cuba. But just as important was challenging the dominant narrative—that Cuba’s suffering is the result of its own government, rather than decades of U.S. cruel policy.
Even though the boat was full of journalists documenting the trip, their cameras could not fully capture the sense of community among strangers united by a shared mission. I remember being nervous about the cold and the possibility of seasickness, but within minutes, people were offering ginger chews, acupressure bracelets, and rain gear.
Our departure was delayed due to weather, boat repairs, and the logistics of loading the aid. In the meantime, we stayed with supporters in Mexico who couldn’t join the voyage but found other ways to contribute. We shared a send-off dinner at an Egyptian restaurant whose owner had followed the Gaza flotillas. He told us how proud he was to see a flotilla to Cuba leaving from his small town.
On the boat, we shared cooking, dishwashing, and night watch shifts—standard practice in occupations, encampments, and direct actions where resources are limited but creativity and collaboration are abundant. At sea, a simple breakfast of rice, beans, eggs, guacamole, and toast tastes like a feast. We slept under galaxies of stars, woke to sunrises on the horizon, and at sunset made music with whatever we had—a guitar, a bucket drum, water bottles filled with dry beans.
Meanwhile, I stayed connected to those traveling by plane, watching group chats fill with photos of carefully packed bags and urgent questions: Who can fit more supplies? How many solar batteries can we carry on? The coordination was constant, collective, and inspiring.
The blockade severely limits what goods can reach Cuba. While US citizens can still travel there under certain categories, they face restrictions and often risk questioning upon return. But solidarity is not tourism. It is not about swooping in, taking photos, and leaving. It is about building relationships, listening, and committing to ongoing struggle from our home countries.
We had a beautiful reception from the Cuban people when we landed, and then had the opportunity to speak directly with community groups about current conditions.I learned how they overcome so much by placing value in community over the individual.
The US empire is indeed dying, and it is up to us to not just reimagine the better world we need and want, but to actually put that world into practice. Reflecting on my experience, I started thinking — if we can turn flotillas from a force of evil into vessels of hope and solidarity, then what else can we change? What if we built schools around the world instead of sending bombs? What if, like the Cubans, we funded healthcare over warfare and sent doctors to cure people instead of soldiers to kill them?
You don’t have to board a boat with humanitarian supplies to show solidarity. Flotillas are one tactic, but we need a variety and diversity of tactics right now, and always. You can move forward by showing solidarity to your neighbors at home, as well as to our neighbors 90 miles off our shores. Because what we build together, in community—whether through a peace flotilla or local mutual aid—is stronger than anything built through force.
By AFP
April 10, 2026
Havana's communist authorities have said exiled Cubans can invest on the island to help its ramshackle economy but the idea is being met with caution in Florida. A coconut water stall is seen on a street in Havana with a sign reading "Ice-cold coconut water," on March 16, 2026. Cubans living abroad and their descendants will be able to invest and have their own businesses on the island, the communist government announced on March 16, 2026, at a time when the country’s economy is almost paralyzed by the energy blockade imposed by Washington. — © AFP YAMIL LAGE
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hailed the “special nature” of relations with Cuba on a visit Thursday, where he met President Miguel Diaz-Canel as tensions simmer between Washington and energy-starved Havana.
“Russia is not going to leave the western hemisphere, no matter what they say in Washington,” Ryabkov told a press conference after the meeting, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
“Our relations with Cuba are of a special nature… We can’t just betray Cuba, it’s completely out of the question, we can’t leave it to its fate.”
The meeting, confirmed by Diaz-Canel’s office on X, came 10 days after a Russian oil tanker arrived in Cuba despite a de facto US fuel blockade.
“We take this opportunity to send a hug to our dear friend, President Vladimir Putin,” Diaz-Canel said in the meeting, according to his office.
Ryabkov said Cuba’s economic issues, including its energy security, were among the main topics of discussion, TASS reported.
Under President Donald Trump, the United States has threatened tariffs on any country that attempts to sell oil to Cuba, resulting in an energy crisis on the communist island that has worsened since January.
The US labels Cuba a threat to US national security, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, has demanded changes to the island’s leadership.
Earlier on Thursday, Diaz-Canel told US-based NBC News that he would not resign under US pressure.
Rubio has denied calling for Diaz-Canel’s resignation.
“At the present moment, Russia is one hundred percent in solidarity with Cuba; despite the complexity the country is going through, we are by your side, said the deputy foreign minister,” the Cuban president’s office wrote on X on Thursday.
