Jacob Helberg (left), U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, shakes hands with Zhaslan Madiyev, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development of Kazakhstan, at the signing ceremony for Kazakhstan’s official accession to the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative in Washington, D.C. on June 25, 2026. Photo Credit: @EconAtState, X
By Justin Burke
Key Takeaways:
Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states are caught between competing US and Chinese AI initiatives after joining both Washington’s Pax Silica / AI Opportunity Statement and Beijing’s World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO).
The US is reportedly preparing an ultimatum requiring Pax Silica signatories to refrain from participating in the Chinese-led group or lose American AI cooperation, forcing a difficult choice for multi-vector foreign policies.
The dilemma risks disrupting US efforts to expand access to Central Asian critical minerals and other resources while also exposing regional states to potential Chinese economic retaliation.
(Eurasianet) — Kazakhstan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states are finding themselves caught in the middle of a deepening struggle between the United States and China for dominance of AI architecture and design. The brewing dilemma created by the AI rivalry has the potential to upend US relations with Central Asian states.
The US State Department has drafted what amounts to an ultimatum and is reportedly preparing to deliver it to 35 states that have signed an AI cooperation pact with Washington, the Reuters news agency first reported. US officials are reportedly going to demand that the signatories refrain from participating in a China-led initiative on AI development. If any state declines to make such a pledge, the US will halt its AI cooperation.
Kazakhstan is among the 35 states that in June signed the American-sponsored “AI Opportunity Statement,” which the US envisions as a “foundational building block for collaboration between the United States and strategic partner economies that commit to fostering a pro-growth, pro-innovation regulatory environment” in the AI sector. The opportunity pact, in turn, is part of a US broader initiative, dubbed Pax Silica, which is framed as the “flagship effort on AI and supply chain security, advancing new economic security consensus among allies and trusted partners.”
Astana, which pursues a multi-vector foreign policy that seeks to balance the interests of major global powers, is now facing a potentially crushing dilemma, given that in July, it became a founding member in a Chinese-led group, the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). Beijing’s initiative is widely seen as a rival to the US’ Pax Silica.
At WAICO’s founding meeting, Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev heaped praise on China’s “dynamic innovation ecosystem” and offered to host the organization’s next annual meeting.
Tokayev’s words and actions may well have helped spur US diplomats to draft the AI ultimatum since Kazakhstan is party to both the AI opportunity statement/Pax Silica and WAICO.
The wording of the draft State Department note, as reported by Reuters, sends a blunt message to Astana and other Pax Silica signatories that they cannot have it both ways.
“To be part of everything is to be part of nothing. Signature of the Pax Silica Declaration is not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment,” the draft note says. It casts WAICO as a “duplicate” initiative “whose expectations conflict with our own,” and goes on to state that a country must “choose deliberately” in determining which approach to take on AI.
The note, as far as can be determined, has not been delivered yet, and there is no indication of when it will be sent. The revelation of its contents may well be a deliberate effort to elicit a desired response from the intended recipients without forcing them to publicly choose.
While Kazakhstan now may be on the hottest seat in the AI rivalry, the draft US note has wide-ranging implications for other regional states, in particular Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Both states are not formally part of Pax Silica, but they have sought to deepen engagement on trade and AI development with the United States. At the same time, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, like Kazakhstan, are members of WAICO.
The US and Chinese approaches on AI development differ markedly. US efforts are led by the private sector and generally seek to create all-knowing AI models with the aim of achieving Artificial General Intelligence, or machines featuring human-like reasoning capable of innovating, anticipating problems and solving them. Chinese models tend to focus on helping humans accomplish specific tasks in an efficient manner, especially in such economic areas as manufacturing and service provision. China’s AI development also features heavy state control over the way information and data are managed. Over the past year, China has narrowed the US lead in AI development.
All Central Asian states stand to face very difficult decisions relating to the draft US note: they are eager to please Washington and deepen economic engagement in the hopes of attracting large-scale Western investment. They also see stronger ties with the United States as a buffer against China’s growing economic and political influence in Central Asia. Anti-Chinese sentiment is prevalent among citizens in several Central Asian states, especially Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
At the same time, Central Asian states are wary of risking China’s wrath, given Beijing’s trade and financing muscle across the region. Any clear commitment to adhering to the US note on AI would very likely invite a punitive Chinese counter-move.
The note carries potential risk for the United States too. Since early 2025, the Trump administration has made widening access to Central Asia’s wealth in critical minerals an economic and diplomatic priority. Placing Central Asian states in an ‘us or them’ position threatens to significantly disrupt relations with the United States, setting back American efforts to make trade gains in such key sectors as mining & critical minerals, oil & gas, nuclear power and transportation logistics.
The ‘us or them’ stance, if pushed too far, could thus end up being a ‘lose-lose’ proposition for the United States and Central Asia.
Justin Burke is Eurasianet’s publisher.
About Eurasianet
Originally published at Eurasianet. Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on the most important developments in the region. A tax-exempt [501(c)3] organization, Eurasianet is based at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship on Eurasia. Read more at eurasianet.org.
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About Eurasianet
Originally published at Eurasianet. Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on the most important developments in the region. A tax-exempt [501(c)3] organization, Eurasianet is based at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship on Eurasia. Read more at eurasianet.org.
View all posts by Eurasianet →
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