Copper at risk of rare supply decline as mine setbacks mount

Bloomberg News | September 4, 2026 | 

Freeport-McMoRan’s Cerro Verde copper mine (Credit: Freeport)

Copper has been on a record-breaking tear in the past year, driven largely by tariff-related trade flows. Bullish investors are betting that flatlining mine supply will drive prices even higher.

A string of disappointing results is undermining expectations that global mine supply would post at least modest growth this year. International Copper Study Group data show output fell 1.1% in the first half, with major producers Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. posting double-digit declines. Morgan Stanley, which entered the year expecting mine supply to expand, now sees it little changed or slightly lower, raising the prospect of the first annual decline since 2017.

That would be a striking outcome — copper trading near record highs should encourage miners to maximize output. Deteriorating ore quality, accidents, project setbacks and extreme weather are frustrating those efforts, and fueling concerns about whether supply can keep pace with demand as electrification gathers pace over the coming years.

For now, there’s no global shortage of refined copper, metal that has been fully processed after being dug out of the ground or recycled. Speculation about a potential US tariff on refined imports has drawn record volumes into US-based warehouses, while supplies elsewhere have grown tighter. That distortion may prove temporary, but mine-supply constraints are not, and bulls are betting those limitations will ultimately drive prices higher.

The difficulties miners face in boosting output are the underlying theme of a “very, very tight market,” Evy Hambro, BlackRock Inc.’s thematic and sector investing global head, said last month in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s declining grades at existing operations,” he said. “It’s tired, very, very old assets. It’s a lack of new development of supply coming into the market.”

Large mining companies tracked by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. that account for two-thirds of global supply saw first-half output fall 3.5%, including a 4.1% second-quarter drop driven mainly by Freeport, Codelco, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. and Antofagasta Plc.

Top producer Chile has been at the center of the disappointing performance, posting its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years. The country cut its full-year production forecast for a second straight quarter and now expects a 2.6% decline. Chile’s state-owned Codelco has warned that even a target of modest growth this year may prove a bridge too far.

The International Copper Study Group expects global mine supply to increase 1.6% this year, though that forecast was made in April before the full extent of the first-half setbacks became clear. 

Jefferies analysts said Tuesday that the latest production results from the industry reinforce their view of tightly constrained mine output, with risks to overall supply remaining firmly to the downside even as some major operations ramp up.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has been one of the few bright spots, with first-half copper shipments rising more than 4% as Chinese-backed operations including CMOC Group Ltd.’s Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines continued to underpin growth.

Read More: Congo Cements Copper Powerhouse Status as Exports Rise Again

Outside the Congo, the weakness is increasingly structural. Morgan Stanley analyst Amy Gower said the industry is now feeling the effects of sharp cuts to mining investment following the commodity downturn a decade ago, leaving a much thinner pipeline of new projects. She sees the possibility of an annual decline in mine output.

Even with prices well above levels needed to incentivize investment, lengthy permitting means efforts to accelerate new mines are unlikely to deliver much additional supply before 2030, while setbacks at operating mines keep piling up.

Weather is adding to the risks, with recent disruptive storms in Chile offering a glimpse of what could be in store with forecasts of a strengthening El Niño ahead. Gower said mining disruptions have historically been greater during El Niño years, with Chile particularly exposed, and mines in Congo and Zambia potentially vulnerable because of their reliance on hydropower.

Weak mine output doesn’t necessarily translate directly into a shortage of refined metal, which also includes output from scrap. Morgan Stanley expects refined production to rise about 0.9% this year even with no growth at mines, as scarce concentrate and a massive expansion in smelting capacity encourage processors to turn to alternative feedstocks.

Analysts’ estimates for the supply-demand balance this year and next vary widely, but there’s broad agreement that constrained mine supply will remain an important support for prices. Copper on touched a record of $14,527.50 a ton the London Metal Exchange in January and is again trading not far off that level.

On Friday, benchmark LME prices headed for a 10th weekly gain — the longest such stretch since 1994 — and traded at $14,304.50 a ton at 1:51 p.m. in London.

Citigroup Inc. analyst Tom Mulqueen forecasts $15,000 a ton by year-end, with the potential to reach about $17,000 if manufacturing recovers or demand from the energy transition, data centers or strategic stockpiling proves stronger than expected. He plays down the threat from the vast US inventory buildup, arguing that even without tariffs those stockpiles are likely to unwind gradually rather than flood back onto the global market.

With demand set to outpace supply growth in the coming years, prices are likely to remain elevated, according to Anglo American Plc Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes. 

“Everyone is investing in copper, everyone likes copper,” he said in an interview last week. “Supply will come, but the question is how quickly.”

(By James Attwood, Yvonne Yue Li and Mariana Durao)

 

Vale shelves base metals IPO amid Brazil pushback: report

Cecilia Jamasmie | September 4, 2026 

The Salobo Mining Complex holds the largest copper mineral reserve in Brazil. (Image courtesy of Vale Base Metals.)

Vale (NYSE: VALE) has shelved plans for an initial public offering of its critical-minerals subsidiary Vale Base Metals Ltd. amid political opposition in Brazil to potentially losing control over strategic mining assets.

The Globe and Mail first reported the decision, citing unnamed sources. London-based VBM was carved out internally from its parent in 2023 in preparation for an eventual listing and operates with separate management and investor-relations teams. CEO Shaun Usmar said in March the company was working to have the business ready for a potential IPO by midyear.

The listing could still be revived at a later date, according to the report.

VBM holds Vale’s global portfolio of copper, nickel and cobalt operations across Canada, Brazil, Japan, Britain and Indonesia. Vale acquired its Canadian nickel assets through its 2006 takeover of Inco Ltd.

Copper focus

VBM agreed in February to sell most of its stake in a Canadian nickel venture as Vale focuses on doubling copper production over the next decade.

The strategy comes as copper, a key metal for electrification and energy infrastructure, has outperformed nickel. Copper prices have climbed about 45% over the past year, roughly four times nickel’s gain.

Putting the IPO on hold leaves Vale with its base metals portfolio intact as it pursues that copper expansion, while preserving the option of returning to public markets with the unit later.

 

Value of top 50 mining companies surges by $357 billion after monster August rally

Frik Els | September 4, 2026 | 

Reasons to be cheerful: #50

The gain took the ranking back above $2.5 trillion for the first time since February when gold stocks were shining brightest thanks to bullion trading close to $1,000 per ounce above today’s levels.  

Gold started the month at $4,043 an ounce and climbed to almost $4,660 by 25 August, its highest since mid-May, before a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh and fresh US strikes on Iran knocked it back. Even after that retreat bullion finished almost 10% higher, its best month since January, and silver did better still, at one point up 20% inside three weeks to $70 an ounce.

The gold standard-bearers 

What was different this time is that the gold miners, so often left behind by their own product, kept up.

Between them the gold, silver and royalty companies supplied $183 billion of the month’s gain. The gold miners alone added $138 billion, a 31% rise in four weeks, and twelve of the thirteen in the ranking finished higher with one glaring exception.

AngloGold Ashanti led on percentages with a 41.6% advance worth almost $17 billion after second-quarter profit rose 58% and the board approved a $2 billion buyback. Australia’s Evolution Mining, up 41.4% on a record full-year profit and a 62% dividend increase, and Gold Fields, up 40.6% as Salares Norte carried the half-year while older mines faltered, were a fraction behind.

The heavy lifting in dollars came from the two largest. Newmont added $34 billion, the biggest single gain anywhere in the table, after beating profit estimates on the strength of the gold price even as output slipped, and Agnico Eagle added $29 billion on record free cash flow and record shareholder returns. Both now sit above $100 billion. 

As a group, precious metals stocks are still trading 19% below their end-February peak (which is technically close to a bear market, but certainly does not feel like one) and August only gave back half the value lost since then.

Southern Copper breaks up the old firm

For as long as this ranking has been compiled, and for decades before that, BHP and Rio Tinto have been the industry’s number one and number two. 

On 24 August that pairing was broken, if only for a few days. Southern Copper, riding record quarterly results and a copper price that set a fresh record above $14,000 a tonne, touched an all-time high of $220.78 a share and a market value of roughly $183 billion, a few billion clear of Rio Tinto.

Copper’s pullback in the last week of the month restored the old order, but only just. Southern Copper closed August at $176.4 billion against Rio Tinto’s $177.0 billion, a gap of $600 million between two companies that between them are worth more than a third of a trillion dollars. Rio Tinto is up 6.7% for the month after its highest first-half earnings in four years. 

Southern Copper is up 15.7% for the month and 48% for the year. With copper still within a stone’s throw of all-time highs and iron ore’s prospects much dimmer, the question may be not whether the Mexican-Peruvian producer takes second place for good, but when. Indeed, on this ranking’s own 1.5 times revenue test (see methodology below) Rio is, strictly speaking, an iron ore company enjoying editorial clemency. 

Red metal redemption

Copper’s rally to the mid-$14,000s was mostly on paper thanks to the will-he won’t he tariff overhang, but mining investors continued to ride the red metal in August.

The twelve copper companies in the ranking added $70 billion over the month. Freeport-McMoRan gained 20.8% after beating profit forecasts despite the slump at Grasberg and is now worth 47% more than at the start of the year. 

BHP, which added $25 billion in August, more than any company outside the gold sector, had copper overtake iron ore as its biggest earner in the full-year results it reported mid-month, and is up 57% for 2026, an eye-watering performance for the only ever $200 billion plus mining stock. BHP, like 30 other counters in the ranking, hit an all time high in 2026.

It is the pattern of the whole year in miniature. Gold has supplied every lurch on the chart, up and down. Copper has supplied the climb underneath it, and the diversified majors that sit at the top of the table are, increasingly, a copper bet.  When Anglo American and Teck Resources become Anglo-Teck, another 100-year old diversified company will officially move to the copper column (but not before Glencore takes its pound of flesh).  

The $100 billion club fills up

The rally repopulated the top of the table. The number of companies worth more than $100 billion rose from four to seven as Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan and Agnico Eagle cleared the mark to join BHP, Rio Tinto, Southern Copper and Zijin Mining. Glencore, up 10.4% in August and 47% for the year on a 15% jump in copper output and near-record trading profits, is the one left waiting at $94.6 billion.

Polyus pulls the other way

Only four of the fifty ended the month lower, and the sharpest fall ran directly against the tide. Polyus, Russia’s largest gold miner, lost 24.3% and $5.3 billion of market value, sliding from 28th to 47th and coming to rest two places above the cut-off. 

The reasons have nothing to do with the metal. Polyus shocked its shareholders in July by suspending dividends until 2030 to fund a wave of new projects, the stock lost a quarter of its value in a session, and it has kept falling since amid talk in Moscow of a windfall levy on miners. 

Divide each gold miner’s market value by the ounces it produces in a year and the ranking turns upside down. Investors are paying about $30,000 for every annual ounce at Agnico Eagle and $23,700 at Newmont. Polyus, which produced 2.6 million ounces last year from some of the lowest-cost mines in the industry, is valued at little more than $6,000 per annual ounce. At Newmont’s multiple the Moscow-listed company would be worth more than $60 billion rather than $16.6 billion, and at Agnico Eagle’s it would top $78 billion

Fellow Russian Norilsk Nickel was flat in dollar terms, a modest interim dividend doing nothing for a stock that is down a fifth this year.

The other two fallers were iron ore’s. Fortescue slipped 0.8% after cutting its final dividend to the lowest since 2018 despite record shipments, and Vale was unchanged after a 35% fall in second-quarter profit. With the benchmark below $100 a tonne, iron ore is the one major commodity the rally passed by.

The revolving door

The price of admission jumped to $15.6 billion from $13.6 billion a month earlier, and the bottom of the table churned accordingly. Lundin Gold, which narrowly missed July’s cut, came back in at 44th after a 27% month built on new discoveries around Fruta del Norte and a record quarter. Western Mining, which had scraped in at 50th in July, went straight back out.

Over the year the door has swung further. Since the end of 2025 five names have climbed into the fifty and five have dropped out. Managem, the Moroccan gold and base metals group, is the standout arrival, up more than 170% in dollar terms, alongside Coeur Mining, Kazatomprom after a 9% rise in first-half uranium output, South32 after agreeing to sell its aluminium business to Alcoa for $5.6 billion, and MMG, holding on at 50th.

Going the other way, Ivanhoe Mines fell out after slashing its Kamoa-Kakula copper guidance, Alamos Gold slipped below the line after seismic damage cut output at Young-Davidson and now sits 51st, $230 million short. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Impala Platinum lost their places, and Vedanta left as a single name once its demerger split the group into five listed companies, with Hindustan Zinc now carrying the flag on its own at 26th.

The best of months and the worst of them

August’s $357 billion is the largest single-month gain in a series that runs back to 2019, and the company it keeps is striking. The previous record was set in January, when the Top 50 added $338 billion, and February added a further $267 billion on the way to the ranking’s all-time high of $2.75 trillion. 

The year owns the other extreme as well. In March, as gold fell away from its record, $420 billion evaporated inside a month, the worst the ranking has recorded. No twelve months have moved the industry the way the last twelve have.

The map redraws

The rally shifted the industry’s centre of gravity. Australia, home to BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue and South32, edged past Canada to become the most valuable mining address on the planet, $538 billion against $534 billion, even though Canada sends twelve companies into the ranking to Australia’s seven.

The United States is third at $358 billion on the strength of its gold and copper names, ahead of China at $296 billion. Russia, with Polyus collapsing and Norilsk standing still, is worth $39 billion, down 44% since December and the heady days when Uralkali and Alrosa managed to rank in the middle and Polyus and Norilsk vied for the top 10 are well and truly over.

 

Regent’s Prototype Seaglider Completes First Human-Crewed Flight

The first human flight of the Regent Seaglider (Regent)

Published Sep 2, 2026 7:03 PM by The Maritime Executive

Regent Craft reports its Seaglider vessel prototype, Viceroy, completed its first human-crewed flight, making it the largest-ever all-electric wing-in-ground effect (WIG) craft to fly with people on board. The company is calling it a major step toward delivery of the first full-scale hydrofoiling wing-in-ground effect craft for commercial and military applications.

The first flight took place at Regent's headquarters on Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, with a crew of two captains aboard. The Seaglider flew a distance of 1,956 ft (596 m) at a height of 33 ft (10m) above the water for 30 seconds. The company said that the Viceroy prototype flight test provides critical validation of the innovative technology and marks the start of the program's final stage of sea trials.

“This is the moment we have been envisioning and tirelessly pursuing for the past five and a half years: Regent has successfully proven safe, efficient ground-effect flight,” said Billy Thalheimer, co-founder and CEO at Regent. "The Viceroy Seaglider flight marks the start of a new era in mobility, unlocking opportunities across passenger travel, defense missions, and cargo transport.”

 

 

The Regent team spent the summer increasing the vessel's hydrofoiling speed in preparation for the flight, part of a comprehensive testing effort throughout 2026 spanning both on-water operations and simulation-based development. The company reports that these efforts continue to refine vehicle performance, de-risk operations, and accelerate Regent's readiness for commercial service and defense applications. Regent has previously demonstrated flight of its uncrewed Squire Seaglider drone.  

"Completing this flight test validates years of rigorous engineering and operational work and gives us the confidence to move into full-rate production,” said Mike Klinker, co-founder and CTO at Regent. “We showed today that flying a Seaglider is every bit as smooth and safe as we designed it to be. I can’t wait to get onboard and to share the experience with others as we make our vision for the future of maritime mobility a reality.”

Seaglider vessels are high-speed, hydrofoiling wing-in-ground effect (WIG) craft that combine the speed of an aircraft with the convenience of a boat. The vessel operates in three modes — float, foil, and fly — starting on its hull at low speed, transitioning to hydrofoils once clear of the dock, and then taking flight within one wingspan of the water's surface.

Regent explains that hydrofoiling gives Seaglider wave tolerance and maneuverability in harbors and near coastlines.  A triple-redundant digital control system manages stability autonomously, so even in flight, the captain drives the Seaglider like a boat: left, right, fast, and slow. The Viceroy vessel will be able to fly at speeds up to 180 mph for up to 180 miles, and seat 12 passengers and two crew.  

The company has received strong interest from a broad range of companies, including ferry operators and shipping companies as well as regional airlines. It is also developing applications in defense markets as it develops a full family of Seaglider systems for military missions, including contested logistics, MEDEVAC and CASEVAC, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and launched effects. Regent has a $15 million contract with the U.S. Marine Corps Warfighting Lab and a CRADA with U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), supporting innovation in agile, next-generation maritime mobility.  

The company’s autonomous Seaglider drone, Squire, completed its first defense-specific wing-in-ground effect flight earlier this year.
 

 

Illnesses Are Causing More Seafarer Fatalities Than Accidents Says P&I Club

Report found that seafarer fatalities are more likely to be caused by illness than accidents, but also warned of metal health dangers (iStock)

Published Sep 2, 2026 8:14 PM by The Maritime Executive

A new report analyzing the cause of seafarers' fatalities highlights that illness, and specifically cardiovascular disease, is cited as the leading cause, more so than accidents. Britannia P&I Club says its analysis raises key concerns while also noting an increasing risk of mental health issues among younger seafarers.

The club's new Crew Claims Report found that 81 percent of all crew fatalities were illness-related, while only 19 percent resulted from injury. Cardiovascular conditions alone accounted for 58 percent of illness-related deaths, making them the single biggest cause of crew fatalities identified in the analysis of nearly 3,000 crew-related claims. 

"Maritime safety is often viewed through the lens of accidents and operational incidents, but our latest claims analysis reveals a different reality,” said Jacob Damgaard, Head of Loss Prevention for the Britannia P&I Club. “The majority of crew fatalities we see are linked to illness, particularly cardiovascular disease, highlighting the need for a broader approach to crew welfare that places greater emphasis on long-term health and prevention.”

Drawing on claims reported during the 2023/24 and 2024/25 policy years, the report provides comprehensive assessments of crew health, safety and wellbeing risks available through P&I claims data. Overall, illnesses accounted for 60 percent of all crew claims, compared with 36 percent for injuries and 4 percent for fatalities. 

While more than four in five crew deaths reported to Britannia P&I Club were caused by illness rather than accidents, it also raised concerns about other emerging issues.

The report also identifies a concerning trend around mental wellbeing, with suicides and incidents of seafarers missing at sea disproportionately affecting younger seafarers. While the number of cases remains relatively small, Britannia notes that a similar pattern has been observed across a broader four-year dataset, reinforcing the need for targeted support and intervention. 

The report also identified persistent operational risks. Hand and finger injuries remained the most common onboard injury, accounting for 27 percent of injury claims, while more than one-third of injury-related fatalities involved man overboard incidents. The report also found that abdominal conditions were the largest category of illness claims, with dehydration-linked kidney stones a notable concern for seafarers working in hot environments.

Britannia says the findings highlight the importance of effective risk assessment, safe manual handling practices, strong communication and consistent use of personal protective equipment. 

 

Your Papers, Please - The Shadow Fleet Comes Out of Hiding

Published Sep 2, 2026 8:24 PM by Erik Kravets

(Article originally published in July/Aug 2026 edition.)

What about the Phoenix? Or should I call her the Pacific Apollo, Virgo Sun, P. Fos, Odysseus, Varuna, Kiwala, Pushpa or Boracay? She's been flagged around the world – in Hong Kong, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, St. Kitts & Nevis, landlocked Mongolia, Gabon, Djibouti and, finally, Russia.

"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," said Ralph Waldo Emerson. He would be impressed: no hobgoblins in shipping!

Phoenix has had a rough life. French commandos boarded her. A limpet mine was stuck to her. She was detained in Estonia. She was implicated in drone incursions near Copenhagen airport. She then flew the flag of Benin, where she was never registered.

All this excitement sounds more appropriate for a warship than a merchant vessel. Are the stories all true? It doesn't matter. Phoenix is a symbol, and for that they're true enough.

Today, Phoenix is in a happy marriage with the Russian flag. She wasn't single for long. Three quick months after being released from de facto French detention in Saint-Nazaire in October 2025, she made her filings and by January 2026, she was under new colors.

THE WHITE, BLUE AND RED

She's not alone. According to Windward, an AI-powered maritime compliance and risk optimization company, she's joined by 68 other tankers. In the past eight months, they all left their old flags behind for Russia's white, blue and red.

At least she won't be boarded – or so the logic goes. Article 110 of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea permits a warship to board suspected stateless ships, which includes ships hoisting false flags. But a Russian ship flying Russian colors can't be accused of that. That's one reason why the "shadow fleet" is embracing the daylight.

The other reasons? It's easier. It's more profitable. It's less risky.

Dozens of ships registered under the Russian flag last year, swelling its numbers by 25 percent, according to Clarksons. Many of the new registrants were sanctioned ships formerly using permissive registries, like Phoenix. When these registries were pressured by Western enforcers, the shadow fleet ships were cut loose.

Then they sailed as stateless vessels which are, as we saw, subject to boarding by commandos. To end this vulnerability at sea, reflagging to the Russian flag – the last one still standing – makes sense, especially since Russia provides naval escorts for its merchant ships. This ranges from SU-35 fighter jet overflights to Russian frigates like Admiral Grigorovich, reportedly escorting tankers through the English Channel and firing warning shots at a British yacht.

St. Petersburg, where the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping is located, offers these ships a home and access to state-sponsored insurance. Sovcomflot, Russia's government-controlled shipping company, owns roughly half of the vessels returning to the Motherland, so commercial and governmental logic have converged.

After years of war, the world has sorted itself into Russian-aligned or neutral powers who are willing to risk the opprobrium of the West. These interests would rather deal with a real flag with real papers. The strategic advantage of living in grey, in-between spaces is fading.

"SHADOW FLEET"

I don't often pay a compliment to regulators. But in this case, they've gotten good at what they set out to do and they're achieving their objective.

As of April 23, 2026, 632 vessels have been designated by the E.U. as belonging to the "shadow fleet." The vessels have ended up on that list for any number of reasons: carrying military gear, stolen Ukrainian grain or Russian petroleum (outside of the price cap); manipulating their AIS transponders; hopping flags (like the Phoenix), or using so-called "phantom insurance," which is another way of saying fake protection and indemnity club insurance that lacks real coverage or benefits.

An example of just such an insurance "scheme" is Ro Marine AS, ostensibly a Norwegian insurer headquartered in Oslo. It was responsible for issuing certificates of coverage to 255 ships, of which 76 have since been tied to the shadow fleet.

In 2025, Norway charged the owner and management with forgery and operation of an illegal insurance business. Lloyd's of London, with characteristic restraint, commented that Ro Marine AS "has been reported in various news releases as having issued fake P&I insurance certificates related to (re)insurance for vessels."

The best way to track down "phantom insurance" has been the challenge-and-response system devised by the Shadow Fleet Expert Group, the Nordic-Baltic organization focused on countering illicit shipping operations in the regional waters of the Baltic and North Seas. It first met in Copenhagen in 2024.

By simply asking tankers making use of the high seas to disclose their insurance, bad actors can easily be sorted out. Any ships refusing or providing fake insurance were logged, and these logs were then shared among the fourteen Expert Group countries, which include heavy-hitters like France, Germany and the U.K.

In this way, the IMO numbers of the implicated ships found their way into E.U. databases. These then fed the sanctions lists, like the one mentioned above from April 23, 2026.

SANCTIONS

When the E.U. sanctions a vessel, it loses access to European ports and terminals, insurance and finance, brokerage, bunkering, ship chandlery, crew change assistance, even tugs. In Germany, it can trigger up to five years in jail to contravene these prohibitions. All this makes it impossible to operate economically in Europe and beyond.

But a Russian ship is a vessel with compliant registration flying the flag of a hostile sovereign power in international waters. That is tougher to interfere with. Boarding such a ship would be an act of war against a sovereign power, not a law enforcement measure.

As the scope of action narrows, it's worth glancing at the cost of all this to the West.

Windward, the maritime intelligence company, disclosed in March 2025 – its last year as a public company – that it earned $37.2 million of revenue from compliance. That calculates to a per-customer figure of about $170,000. If larger companies paid more and smaller companies paid less, it's enough to hurt.

Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) solutions aren't free, and they range across the entire maritime sector from terminals making sure they aren't docking a sanctioned ship to bunker companies trying not to sell fuel to the wrong buyer.

A lot can happen in four years. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022, maritime commerce has rebuilt itself around a broad and deep set of restrictions. Both Russia and Europe have suffered even if, generally, Russia may have borne the brunt of it: Its military and security spending consumes 40 percent of its federal budget. Still, all that isn't enough, and there's no sign Russia is exhausting its ability to continue hostilities.

As far as sanctions are concerned, tightening the screw further risks snapping off the head rather than engaging the thread.

Greece delivered an example: It blocked the 21st sanctions package, proposed on June 9, 2026, arguing that it would destroy Dynagas, a company that operates 27 gas carriers including some ice-rated ones that serve the Yamal "megaproject," a Russian LNG facility in the frozen wildlands of Siberia.

Dynagas, as the Financial Times reported, carries Russian LNG and is not subject to sanctions. Dynacom, the sister company of Dynagas, has in the meantime operated profitably since 2023 by lawfully carrying Russian crude in conformity with price caps.

If the sanctions had gone through, the Greeks argued, those ships would have lost their value. They would have been sold off to non-Western actors willing to do business with Russia, or perhaps even to Sovcomflot – a windfall for Russia, a Greek loss.

YOUR PAPERS, PLEASE

As for Phoenix, as of this writing, her AIS reads "FOR ORDER," no questions asked. (Since this article was written for the magazine, Phoenix (IMO 9332810) is again under the Russian flag shuttling between Russia and China delivering crude oil.)

Erik Kravets, is a maritime lawyer, and frequent contributor to The Maritime Executive.

This article appeared in the July/August issue of The Maritime Executive. To read the latest edition of the magazine, go to The Maritime Executive July/August 2026 Ship Management edition. To subscribe to the magazine, please go to https://www.maritime-executive.com/subscribe.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Norway Seizes Russian Research Vessel as Ukraine Pursues Crimea Claims

Russian ship Professor Molchanov was seized in Norway on behalf of Ukrainian claims for compensation for assets taken in Crimea (Naftogaz)

Published Sep 2, 2026 10:22 PM by The Maritime Executive

The Governor of Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago, confirmed that under court authority, they have today, September 2, taken control of the Russian research vessel turned cruise ship, Professor Molchanov. The vessel is being held on behalf of the Ukrainian state-owned energy company Naftogaz, which has been pursuing claims against Russia for compensation for assets lost during the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Naftogaz received an award in April 2023 from a tribunal in the Hague, which was valued at approximately $4.22 billion, plus interest and costs. It had started the action in 2016 for the value of the company’s assets in Crimea. Since then, Naftogaz has been doggedly chasing the Russian Federation and attempting to enforce its claim in jurisdictions ranging from the United States to the UK, France, and Finland. A Dutch court confirmed the enforceability of the award in late 2024. Naftogaz had also taken its claim into the Norwegian courts.

The Nord-Troms District Court in Norway issued its ruling on August 31, granting Naftogaz’s claim to seize the Professor Molchanov. The governor was instructed to act as bailiff and, as of September 2, seized the ship, which was in the Svalbard region as part of its normal operations.

The Professor Molchanov was instructed to dock in Barentsburg, a coal town operated by a Russian company, which is also the second-largest settlement in Svalbard. The governor said they would be taking care of the passengers and crew aboard the vessel in collaboration with Trust Arcticgul, the Russian state-owned company that operates the mine.

Built in Finland in 1982 as a specialized hydrographic and oceanographic research vessel for Russia, the Professor Molchanov is 1,753 gross tons and sails under the Russian flag. The ship is approximately 72 meters (236 feet) in length and has an ice-class hull. The Russians converted the ship in the 1990s for passenger operations. It has accommodations for 54 passengers, and since June 2025 it has been operating expeditions from Murmansk to the Svalbard region. It resumed the trips in March of this year.

The seizure follows another success Ukraine achieved in the Swedish courts. At the beginning of August, Sweden's Supreme Court finalized a ruling permitting a small cargo ship that has been detained for months to be awarded to Ukraine. Swedish authorities stopped the Caffa at the beginning of March 2026, citing environmental concerns and the belief the ship could be sailing under a false flag. Ukraine pursued a claim asking for Sweden’s assistance, asserting that the ship had transported stolen grain from Crimea. Swedish prosecutors presented the claim to the courts for a decision.

 

Maersk to Test First Wind Rotor on a Containership

Rendering of the wind rotor installed on a 8,700 TEU Maersk containership (Anemoi)

Published Sep 2, 2026 6:23 PM by The Maritime Executive

Maersk, working with the British wind propulsion company Anemoi, plans to test the feasibility of wind-assisted propulsion on one of its smaller containerships. While several efforts have been looking at rigid sails for containerships, this is the first application of a wind rotor on boxships as Maersk and the industry more broadly look for opportunities to increase efficiency and reduce emissions and costs.

The demonstration program calls for Anemoi to design, manufacture, and deliver a 5-meter-diameter (16.4-foot), 35-meter-tall (115-foot) fixed Rotor Sail to be retrofitted in mid-2027 to the containership. The system will be integrated alongside existing onboard systems, with Anemoi providing support through the engineering and installation.

The installation will be aboard one of the Maersk Lima class vessels, with Anemoi saying it is expected to be used on North and South Atlantic voyages. The Lima class of 16 vessels was delivered starting in 2011, built by South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME). The 105,846 dwt containerships measure 300 meters (982 feet) in length with a capacity of approximately 8,700 TEU.

Anemoi, speaking to the Financial Times, explained that containerships have not been at the forefront of wind-assisted propulsion in part because of deck space questions. It notes that nearly all the deck area is devoted to containers and the concerns over loss of earnings capabilities for the vessel. This test addresses the concerns by positioning the rotor near the bow and using a fixed rotor versus the folding ones used on many bulkers to reduce air draft and move the rotors out of the way of cargo handling.

 

The placement at the bow helps to address the concerns of impacting container capacity and a lack of deck space (Anemoi)

 

The company explained to the Financial Times that containerships, however, are a good candidate as they sail dedicated routes, making it possible to predict wind conditions and vessel operating speeds and schedules. Anemoi says its technology can operate in heavy seas and wind speeds of up to nearly 80 mph.

“Wind-assisted propulsion is one of several promising maritime solutions with the potential to improve vessel efficiency and reduce emissions,” said Ole Graa Jakobsen, Head of Fleet Technology, at Maersk. “It has already been tested in other parts of the shipping sector, and we see this pilot with Anemoi as a valuable opportunity to build practical experience and assess its relevance for our fleet and for container shipping more broadly.”

Anemoi highlights that so far, its technology has primarily been installed on bulkers, large ore carriers, and product tankers. The company was started in 2015 to commercialize the rotor technology, which was developed a century ago using the “Magnus effect” to create the propulsive thrust. On its website, it says it is possible to reduce fuel and emissions between 5 and 30 percent. It installed its first system in 2018, and reports are that the company currently has 29 Rotor Sails operations and more than 16 on order.

The International Windship Association told the Financial Times that there are about 110 commercial installations of wind-assisted propulsion on vessels above 400 gross tons. It says another 80 to 90 are on order, and it believes as many as 50 are in the development pipeline. The technologies, including rigid sails or rotors, have been tested on most classes of ships, including an early test by Maersk Tankers of the competing Norsepower rotors on a product tanker. A third technology using a kite concept remains in the testing and development stage.

An EU-funded research project is currently testing a rigid sail concept on a containership. Ocean Network Express (ONE) also planned to test a rigid sail housed in a portable container as a means of adding wind-assisted propulsion to its fleet.