Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Election Prediciton- Jaffer Defeated

The Truth Hurts who has been doing the thankless job of compiling riding by riding predicitons makes these about Edmonton. Very interesting. Puts Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Millwoods Beaumont as Liberal. It shows a close race in Edmonton East as I predicted.


And shows Rahim Jaffer defeated in Edmonton Strathcona. I don't think it will be the Liberal though that defeats him. But it does show Edmonton Strathcona is a race to watch.

As TTH says we are free to disagree with his predictions. So far though his has been the best of the predicition sites for tracking polling data. Most others just predict a big blue 28 Conservative seats in Alberta. Not TTH.

Thanks TTH. We won't know how accurate you are until the Fat Lady sings.


Riding Prediction





Edmonton LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Edmonton-Beaumont 43.9% 38.2% 12.2% 0.0% 5.3% 0.3%
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þ
Edmonton Centre 48.7% 33.7% 10.4% 0.0% 5.1% 2.2%
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Edmonton East 37.7% 38.2% 17.0% 0.0% 5.9% 1.1%
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Edmonton-Leduc 35.1% 47.0% 11.2% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0%
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Edmonton-St. Albert 29.2% 49.7% 13.9% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Sherwood Park 29.6% 49.9% 13.2% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Spruce Grove 31.1% 52.5% 10.8% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0%
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Edmonton Strathcona 33.1% 32.1% 27.0% 0.0% 6.7% 1.2%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS

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Rahim Jaffer Opposes Same Sex Marriage

Vote Marriage Canada the third party lobby front group for David Manse has outed politicians who will support a free vote to over turn Same Sex Marriage if elected. Anti-same-sex marriage candidates outed Here is their endorsement for these candidates. And Edmonton Strathcona Conservative Candidate Rahim Jaffer is one of them. We have a large gay community on the southside here.

But Edmonton Centre has an even bigger gay and lesbian community, and of course Laurie Hawn, the Conservative Candidate who failed to show up at a Pride Edmonton Forum got their endorsement too. Laurie Hawn Chicken Hawk

"TBC" (To be confirmed)

RIDING
CANDIDATE
Calgary Centre TBC
Calgary Centre-North No endorsement
Calgary East Deepak Obhrai
Calgary Northeast Art Hanger
Calgary--Nose Hill Diane Ablonczy
Calgary Southeast Jason Kenney
Calgary Southwest Hon. Stephen Harper
Calgary West Rob Anders
Crowfoot Kevin Sorenson
Edmonton Centre Laurie Hawn
Edmonton East Peter Goldring
Edmonton—Leduc James Rajotte
Edmonton--Mill Woods--Beaumont Mike Lake
Edmonton--Sherwood Park Ken Epp
Edmonton--Spruce Grove Rona Ambrose
Edmonton--St. Albert John Williams
Edmonton—Strathcona Rahim Jaffer
Fort McMurray—Athabasca Brian Jean
Lethbridge Rick Casson
Macleod Ted Menzies
Medicine Hat Monte Solberg
Peace River Chris Warkentin
Red Deer Bob Mills
Vegreville--Wainwright Leon Benoit
Westlock--St. Paul TBC
Wetaskiwin TBC
Wild Rose Myron Thompson
Yellowhead Rob Merrifield


And rules are made for some folks and not others. Such as the Vote Marriage Folks. Must be cause they only follow G*D's rules.

Vote Marriage meeting breaks election rules
Last updated Jan 17 2006 10:19 AM AST
CBC News
Same-sex marriage opponent Elsie Wayne spoke to a group of Baptist ministers and parishioners in a Moncton community centre that also holds an advance polling station in a gathering that broke federal election rules. About 70 people attended the meeting at the Lions Senior Citizens Centre to hear the former Conservative MP, who also serves as the Atlantic co-chair of Vote Marriage Canada, a group fighting same-sex marriage. "God does not endorse that and we do not," Wayne told the group. "But we do not hate people. You have to straighten people out. We don't go around hating people."

A tip o the blog to ObstiNation for this

Also see my blog articles on this.




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Stupid Complaint

Apparently some disgruntled Conservatives and Liberals are claiming the Blogging Tories were funded and set up as front for the Conservative Party. Gimme a break. Complaint filed against Blogging Tories

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CTV/G&M Showing Conservative Bias

The Blogging Tories have been strangely quiet on the issue that they were ranting about for weeks that is the apparent CTV Liberal Bias

The occasional complaint arises but for the most part the blog orgy of attacks on CTV and the Globe are now muted.

With the Globe and Mail, formerly pro Liberal, now converted on the road to Damascus into true blue Conservative backers, they and CTV, and their polling company Strategic Council continue to come up with unbelievable polls indicating an overwhelming Conservative majority. Do you think this may be editorially driven? Or is it just wishful thinking.

This poll shows national party support.

Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

The Conservative Party has an 18-point lead over the Liberals in a new poll, giving them 42 per cent support nationally and possibly setting the stage for a major electoral shift. more...

This is a major misleading headline. By their or any current polling.

Strategic Counsel's polling numbers are always suspect when you compare them to other polls. They are off by at least 3% and have been sonsitantly polling higher for the Conservatives than any other poll.


Because they are the CTV/Globe pollsters they make the news. They are the news. But are they accurate and true. I would say not. I prefer CPAC/SES polling it has remained consistant and far more 'true' in numbers than the Strategic Counsel polling.


SES Research

DATE

CON

LIB

NDP

BQ

GRN

MOE

LINK

01/16/06

37

30

18

10

4

±3.1

01/15/06

37

29

18

11

5

±3.1

01/14/06

38

30

17

10

6

±3.1

01/13/06

38

29

16

11

7

±3.1

01/12/06

40

31

14

10

6

±3.1

01/11/06

38

29

16

12

5

±3.1

01/10/06

39

30

16

12

4

±3.1


Ekos

DATE

CON

LIB

NDP

BQ

GRN

MOE

LINK

01/16/06

35.8

29.6

19.4

11.6

3.4

±3.7


At least CTV's long time political reporter Craig Oliver has remained objective in the media orgy to declare a Conservative majority. Well there has to be one spoilsport at every party. Which is why at least one Blogging Tory is upset.

However, Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent, said Tuesday night that other polls -- including, according to what he's been told, the party's internal polls -- show the Conservatives short of a majority. According to his conversations with party officials, "they expect they could be in for a bit of a dip, as Canadians wake up in shock to find they've supported Harper so significantly," he said.

As I have shown, BCE Inc. the parent company of Bell Canada, and Bell Global Media owners of CTV and the Globe and Media was a big donor to the Harper Leadership campaign.

The sudden cheerleading of CTV's Mike Duffy for all things Harper and Conservative might be influenced by the new polling/ editorial direction of this media congolmerate? Do ya.

Mike Duffy

video: Harper responds to Quebec support

Tue. Jan. 17 2006 6:58 PM ET

Mike Duffy asks Conservative Leader Stephen Harper about French newspaper endorsing him in the 2006 federal election campaign.



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Liberal Attack Ad Wrong

The Liberal Attack ad, Liberal attack ad about Harper and his contributions 0:30 that is still running on TV, and posted on their website, stating that we don't know where Harper got his money from for his leadership race, or who donated to it,is wrong. We do. As I posted here the other day.

Politics from the Heartlands ~ BC, Canada and the USA has posted more on the background of some of Harpers corporate backers. Harper scored big money

Which includes a link between former Encana President Gwyn Morgan and Anderson consulting. Anderson of course was involved in the Enron scandal and years before that was involved in Bernie Cornfelds mutual fund swindle, which operated out of Ontario in the 1960's. Under Mike Harris Anderson returned to Ontario to work as an advisor on contracting out public services, as did Gwyn Morgans other company, Acceture. Both cost taxpayers millions in cost overruns.
Something about a tiger not changing its spots me thinks.

That being said one has to wonder why the Liberals continue to lie about Harpers donors? Rather than expose them. Oh right cause they also donate to the Liberals. Makes it kinda hard to expose them as bad guys, right.

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There is nothing to fear

But fear itself. And a Conservative Majority on January 24.
Harper: Don't fear a majority Be Afraid, be very afraid.

While the Harper says there are checks and balances such as a Liberal
dominated Senate, Tory majority would not have 'absolute power', Harper says
lets not forget the long standing Reform/Alliance/Conservative
promise of Senate Reform.A Senate controlled by Tories?

The Liberals are sinking in the polls "are they the Titanic or the Hindenberg"
Brad Lavigne,NDP strategist said on CPAC last night. Liberals scramble to curb losses

With Liberals rushing to vote Conservative, including those in the blogosphere,
there is only one place progressive, liberal Canadians can make an effective vote,
with the NDP. Which is why Martin is attacking Jack.
Martin attacks Layton for not attacking Harper

Layton spells out Tory no-go zones
Will not let nation's positive accomplishments `be undone'
Board of trade CEO welcomes NDP concern for Toronto



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A Conservative View of First Nations


Fontaine worried by Tory aboriginal agenda

Solberg vows not to honour aboriginal agreement


11 January 2006

OTTAWA – There’s never been any doubt as to how a Conservative government would deal with the Kelowna agreement. We accept the objectives and targets agreed upon at the First Ministers Meeting. However, at the conclusion of the meeting, there was no agreement on where the $5.1 billion would be spent.



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Harper Will Make Canada Masculine Again


Now here is a damn fine reason to vote for the Conservatives cause they ain't no femmy, gay loving, limp wristed, bunch of liberals.

They are MEN, even their women. They are a man's party. They are tough rugged, strong, brave and free. And they are Men. No eye shadow here. Not a Metrosexual amongst them. Tough guys.

Nope these are Cowboys, arm wrestling, beer drinking, average Joe Canadian. And if you elect them, Canada will no longer be a whimp in the world. We will be the bar-room brawlers in North to Alaska. We will rightly take our place amongst the manly nations of the world. Those willing to step up to the plate and squash someone.

Well that's according to American columnist John O'Sullivan in yesterdays Chicago Sun Times. He says;


In 1945 Canada was the world's fourth-largest military power. Its soldiers, sailors and airmen had played a major part on D-Day and in finally defeating Nazi Germany. And its national image was that of a tough, self-reliant, stand-up guy whom you would like on your side in a barroom brawl.

From 1945 to the present the history and changing national image of Canada was brilliantly summed up in the Monty Python song that begins "I'm a lumberjack and I'm OK" and gradually develops into "I put on women's clothing and hang around in bars." In other words, not necessarily someone you would like on your side in a barroom brawl.

This new Canada was the child of the Pierre Trudeau and the Canadian Liberal party. As the government in power for most of the postwar period, they remade Canada in their own image: left-liberal in politics, tightly regulated in economics, welfarist in social policy, officially bilingual and multicultural as regards national identity, allied to the United Nations and the Third World in foreign policy, and therefore self-consciously different from (and sometimes even hostile to) the United States.

Above all, Tory leader Harper is not a very good candidate for demonization. He is a cool cerebral politician who has fought a controlled campaign on a distinctly moderate conservative manifesto. Too moderate, some would say, since the Tory manifesto concentrates on cleaning up government after the Liberal scandals, offers only modest tax cuts, is willing to offer the United States a "free vote" in parliament on joining a missile defense system (rather than supporting it outright), and proposes raft after raft of government assistance programs rather than a smaller state

That said, the Tories do want to rebuild Canada's shrunken military, to retain the democratic safeguard of the "notwithstanding" clause, to strengthen border security against terrorists, to advance Canada's interests by better relations with the United States rather than by pointless insults, and in general to revive the more vigorous Canada that existed before Trudeau. Harper's moderation is a recognition that the Canadians have become accustomed to the easy chair of all-encompassing government since then. He is inviting the modern Canadian to take the first small steps back to self-reliance and national pride.

But is there still a lumberjack under all that mascara?

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More Edmonton Strathcona Votes Chat

Well one of the most active Edmonton discussions on the CBC website is Edmonton Strathcona.Edmonton-Strathcona (104 Comments) Edmonton Centre is the other most talked about riding as too be expected.

Lots of chatter as to ousting Jaffer, strategic voting and how NDP signs have swept the riding including in areas that they have not appeared before.

Also Democratic Space has posted Alberta riding predicitions and the only two in play are Edmonton Centre too close to call and Edmonton Strathcona which he predicts will go Conservative but at the lowest rate of any riding in Alberta, by a mere 5%. Which doesn't mean much since none of us believes polls especially prediction ones. I would trust chicken livers read by a shaman as much.

Ok folks push push push that vote. Time to oust Jaffer and it is possible this time around.


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AFL Endorses Linda Duncan

The Alberta Federation of Labour has come out endorsing not just the NDP but Linda Duncan the NDP candidate in Edmonton Strathcona.

Pundits looking in wrong place for candidate most likely to stop Harper from painting Alberta Tory blue

After discussing the Edmoton Centre campaign that the Pundits and national media has focused on Gil McGowan President of the Alberta Federation of Labour, and Edmonton Strathcona resident says;
But that doesn't mean Albertans will send nothing but Conservative MPs to
Ottawa on Election Day. McGowan says NDP candidate Linda Duncan has a real
chance in Edmonton-Strathcona - and he's sending a letter to union members in
the riding encouraging them to help put Duncan over the top.
In the letter, McGowan points out that more than six out of ten voters in
the riding voted against Conservative incumbent Rahim Jaffer in the last
election - giving him the lowest levels of support among all Tories in the
province.
"The majority of Canadians seem determined to punish the Liberals at the
ballot box," writes McGowan in his letter. "That's understandable. But let's
not punish ourselves by voting Conservative - and allowing them to impose
their program-slashing, Medicare-weakening agenda."
As far as arguments about strategic voting go, McGowan says that the idea
the Liberals are in the best position to stop the Tories is now clearly
laughable - especially in Edmonton-Strathcona.
"The wheels have fallen off the Liberal wagon," says McGowan. "The
majority of voters still believe in a vision of a caring Canada - but they
don't believe that the Liberals provide anything more than lip service to
those values."
"So, with all due respect to people like Buzz Hargrove who have been
promoting the Liberals as the least offensive alternative, I say 'buzz off.'
The Conservative are probably going to form the government - so we need MPs
strong enough to stand up to them. In other words, we need MPs like Linda
Duncan, not some faceless Conservative back-bencher with a checkered past.
Nuff said. It's a two way race in Edmonton Strathcona.

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