Modeling our climate future; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to lead ocean current research
New NOAA-funded project investigating role of western boundary current variability in climate change
Grant and Award AnnouncementIMAGE: SWIRLING PARCELS OF WATER, CALLED OCEAN EDDIES, SPIN OFF FROM THE WARM GULF STREAM, THE POWERFUL NORTHWARD-FLOWING CURRENT THAT HUGS THE U.S. EAST COAST BEFORE VEERING EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS VISUALIZATION WAS GENERATED BY A NUMERICAL MODEL THAT SIMULATES OCEAN CIRCULATION. WHOI RESEARCHERS ARE STUDYING WESTERN BOUNDARY OCEAN CURRENTS, LIKE THE GULF STREAM, AND HOW THEIR BEHAVIOR CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE. IMAGE view more
CREDIT: CREDIT: NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION © NASA, GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
Woods Hole, Mass. (October 6, 2021) -- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) senior scientist of physical oceanography, Dr. Young-Oh Kwon, and WHOI adjunct scientist, Dr. Claude Frankignoul, have received a new research grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, funding their research project focusing on western boundary ocean currents and their correspondence with the atmosphere in relation to modern day climate.
Western boundary currents (WBCs), such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in the North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic Ocean, are the regions of largest ocean variability and intense air-sea interaction. This WBC variability generates strong ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer, resulting in warming that can impact large-scale atmospheric circulation and heat transport toward the poles in both the ocean and atmosphere.
The project suggests that this WBC behavior and its associated air-sea interaction play fundamental roles in regulating our climate, as well as have a significant impact on extreme weather, coastal ecosystem, and sea-level. However, their representation in climate models needs to be improved. This study looks to investigate the nature and impacts of the WBC variability in state-of-the-art climate models based on a set of model diagnostics. Kwon and his team will develop the diagnostics for this study based on various observational datasets. Then, they will be used to determine the differences between observations and the climate model simulations (or model biases) at standard and higher resolutions.
According to Kwon, the findings would lead to a system of quantifying the oceanic and atmospheric variability in the WBCs resulting from air-sea interactions, and improved understanding of the links between the model biases in simulating WBCs and the simulated large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulations.
“The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was very clear: climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying, hence the research to improve our physical understanding of the climate system and model biases are needed more than ever,” said Kwon.
“Our overall goals are to advance scientific understanding, monitoring, and prediction of climate and its impacts, enable effective decisions, especially since the improvement in the climate model processes related to the WBC variability and associated air-sea interaction has significant implications for the prediction of our climate and its impacts,” Kwon added.
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About Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) is a private, non-profit organization on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, dedicated to marine research, engineering, and higher education. Established in 1930, its primary mission is to understand the ocean and its interaction with the Earth as a whole, and to communicate an understanding of the ocean’s role in the changing global environment. WHOI’s pioneering discoveries stem from an ideal combination of science and engineering—one that has made it one of the most trusted and technically advanced leaders in basic and applied ocean research and exploration anywhere. WHOI is known for its multidisciplinary approach, superior ship operations, and unparalleled deep-sea robotics capabilities. We play a leading role in ocean observation and operate the most extensive suite of data-gathering platforms in the world. Top scientists, engineers, and students collaborate on more than 800 concurrent projects worldwide—both above and below the waves—pushing the boundaries of knowledge and possibility. For more information, please visit www.whoi.edu
Study: New Pacific Ocean circulation findings may hold key to better predicting impact of El Niño and La Niña
TORONTO, Oct. 4, 2021 — For years scientists have been trying to understand variations in El Niño and La Niña to accurately predict year-to-year disruptions to weather patterns. New findings from York University scientists at the Lassonde School of Engineering suggest that a conveyer-like motion of heat across the equator in the Pacific Ocean — called the “Cross Equatorial Cell” (CEC) — may influence what a specific El Niño or La Niña looks like.
“What this CEC is doing, essentially, is sloshing water and heat back and forth between just north of the equator and just south of the equator,” said Neil Tandon, assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at the Lassonde School of Engineering and co-author of the study. “In this study, we looked at what is physically causing this motion in the ocean. Understanding this is crucial, because a small change in the location of ocean heat in turn shifts the locations of the atmospheric jet streams, which sets off a chain reaction, disturbing weather around the globe.”
El Niño and La Niña are both known to have global impacts on weather, from severe flooding to droughts and wildfires — impacting economies in every country. El Niño is a warming of the ocean in the tropical Pacific over a year, while La Niña is a cooling in this region. But not all El Niños and La Niñas are the same: some are stronger than others, and they can arise in different locations in the Pacific Ocean.
Tandon says the movement of heat by the CEC may help explain this range of behaviour and improve our ability to predict year-to-year changes in weather patterns. Such improvements would benefit countries around the globe across a broad range of sectors, including agriculture, transportation, emergency response services, hydroelectric utilities and the insurance industry.
“When scientists see that there's going to be a strong El Niño or a strong La Niña, everybody pays attention because no country is unaffected by that, “said Tandon. “If we can make any incremental step in improving our prediction of the impact of El Niño or La Niña, that has benefits for everybody in terms of being able to prepare for consequences such as severe flooding or droughts.”
Tandon and lead author, Devanarayana Rao, a Master’s student in Tandon’s lab, examined the CEC using multiple data sets. In the study, the team analyzed relationships between physical quantities to illustrate what this circulation looks like and why this circulation exists. Their analysis found that the CEC arises from the following sequence of events:
- Year-to-year changes in winds generate changes in the density of ocean water north and south of the equator in the Pacific.
- These density changes generate changes in pressure north and south of the equator.
- These pressure changes in turn generate a flow of water across the equator in the upper ocean.
- This flow in the upper ocean generates waves that extend to the deep ocean, where they drive flow in the opposite direction across the equator.
“This research is a part of ongoing efforts to improve our understanding of the climate system and to develop real-world solutions to the ongoing climate crisis,” said Rao. “In general, most [previous] studies focused on deep ocean circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, which is projected to have a ‘slowing down’ in the next 100 years. But, here, in the Pacific, the year-to-year variability of the deep ocean is much stronger than in the Atlantic, which can potentially influence the global weather patterns, the deep oceanic carbon reserve, and marine habitat.”
“I think an important next step in this research would be to start looking at the models that we use to predict El Niño and La Niña and specifically focus on what are those models doing as far as the CEC,” said Tandon. “If they're doing something very different from what is actually observed then what are the consequences? If we correct what the model is doing, does that lead to a better prediction?”
The study is published today in the American Geophysical Union’s Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.
York University is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. York’s fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario’s Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. York’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.
About Lassonde School of Engineering
Located in the heart of the multicultural Greater Toronto Area, the Lassonde School of Engineering at York University is home to engineers, scientists and entrepreneurs, representing a diverse community of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners. With 11 undergraduate programs, seven graduate programs and a host of certificates and accessible study options, Lassonde is shaping the next generation of creators who will tackle the world’s biggest challenges and devise creative solutions through interdisciplinary learning opportunities. Lassonde’s creators think in big systems rather than small silos, design with people in mind and embrace ambiguity.
Media contact: Anjum Nayyar, York University Media Relations, cell 437-242-1547, anayyar@yorku.ca
JOURNAL
Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Not applicable
ARTICLE TITLE
Mechanism of Interannual Cross-Equatorial Overturning Anomalies in the Pacific Ocean
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
4-Oct-2021
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