AMS Science Preview: Neighborhood hurricane warnings, wildfire increase, Earth energy

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access — they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.

Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies
Journal of Climate

Greenhouse gas–driven increase in Earth’s energy budget is “unprecedented” in last 1,000 years. Using tree rings, corals, and ice cores, the authors create the first reconstruction of energy entering and leaving the Earth system over the last thousand years. They find that the rate of energy gain associated with industrial global warming is unprecedented in the last millennium. Preindustrial cooling trends were largely caused by volcanic eruptions.

The Increasing Incidence of Boreal and Western US Forest Wildfires and Its Causes: An Overview
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

U.S. forest fire burn area has increased threefold due to climate change. The average area of boreal and western U.S. forest burned per year has increased by approximately a factor of three since 2000, with rapid increases in large fires, according to a comprehensive literature review. Smoke has also increased over much of North America. Burn area and fire-related carbon emissions are most sensitive to aridity, which has increased as predicted with climate change—strong evidence that global warming, rather than fire management issues, is behind this increased burning.

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations
Journal of Climate

Greenhouse gases appear responsible for tropical cyclone shifts. Model simulations suggest that increased greenhouse gases are likely influencing a southward shift and reduction in frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. While there is significant variance among different models, the authors suggest that atmospheric aerosols would have caused an increase in frequency and a northward shift starting in the 1980s had aerosols remained the dominant influence over TC frequency.

Enhanced Teleconnections of Maritime Continent Deforestation on North Pacific Climate During La Niña Conditions
Journal of Climate

Deforestation in the Maritime Continent causes North American warming during La Niña. Deforestation in Pacific island nations like New Guinea affects large-scale atmospheric circulation, a modeling study suggests. While its effects are more confined during El Niño, Maritime Continent deforestation may trigger significant effects in the North Pacific, including warming in North America, during La Niña—a state likely to become more frequent with global warming.

Local-Scale Wind Forecasting for Tropical Cyclone Early Warnings
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

A step toward neighborhood-level hurricane forecasting. Tropical cyclone (TC) wind forecasts are typically too large-scale to inform decisions at the neighborhood level. A new machine learning system, LiveCyc, transforms TC forecasts into probabilistic, kilometer-scale wind predictions accounting for local factors like topography, showing promise for helping local decision-makers optimize protective measures in advance.

An Object-Based Analysis of Lightning Characteristics in Pre-Tropical Cyclogenesis Environments
Monthly Weather Review

Can lightning help predict hurricane genesis? This study uses data from the Geostationary Lighting Mapper to classify types of lightning within five recent North Atlantic storms, four of which developed into named tropical cyclones (Claudette, Ida, Earl, and Beryl). It found commonalities among the storms that became TCs. If these hold true over a wider number of disturbances, lightning might become a tool for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis.

Precipitation Changes and Possible Mechanisms in the Global Arid Regions During the Last 40 Years
Journal of Climate

Arid regions are getting drier with global warming. Extreme precipitation is globally increasing with climate change. However, in seven of eight arid regions studied, precipitation and extreme precipitation both show decreasing trends between 1980 and 2024. The exception is North Africa, where precipitation is increasing faster than the global mean. While factors correlated with precipitation (such as humidity) show an increase, with rising temperatures they tend to decrease, and arid regions are warming faster than average.

Weathering the Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Public Attitudes to Potential Adoption of Machine Learning-Based Forecasts
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

UK public shows limited confidence in AI/machine learning weather forecasts. A survey of 6,000 people in the UK finds that 78% believe current numerical weather prediction forecasts are accurate, with high agreement among demographic groups. Only 47% believe that machine-learning weather forecasts would be accurate, suggesting the need for more engagement to identify and address concerns.

Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States
Weather, Climate, and Society

Future hail risk in the Midwest and Great Plains. Hail is the third-costliest peril affecting crop production in the United States. This study finds that despite projected decreases in regional hail, the Great Plains face the greatest exposure-driven risk in the future due to the expansion of cropland into areas with extensive summer hail. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South may undergo hazard-driven loss increases due to more severe hail, despite negligible change in cropland extent.

Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil
Earth Interactions

Global warming may reshape the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes. Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to rising ocean temperatures appears likely to reduce rainfall in the Amazon wet season and increase it in the dry season. Additionally, it may cause cooling in the Amazon, warming in central Brazil, and tropical forest expansion into Caatinga shrubland regions, according to a modeling study.

“When Should I Leave?”: The Effect of Impact Based Hurricane Wind and Storm Surge Emergency Alerts on Evacuation Intentions
Weather, Climate, and Society

Impact-based storm surge warnings may improve evacuation decision-making. A study of Florida and Louisiana residents found that “impact-based” hurricane storm surge warnings, which include information about adverse consequences such as road flooding, were effective in predicting intentions to evacuate, and were especially beneficial for those who had no prior experience with evacuation or storm surge.

Excellent Forecasts but Poor Outcomes: Why Can’t We Do Better?
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Why do weather disasters continue? Despite vast improvements in our ability to predict dangerous weather, catastrophic damage continues. The author identifies reasons including inadequate communication, ineffective evacuations, infrastructure issues, nonspecific or unclear forecast guidance, or inadequate/delayed emergency response. He suggests reorganizing National Weather Service offices to prioritize warnings, improved federal investment in local prediction, and establishing a National Disaster Review Board.

Seasonal and Geographical Differences in the Marine Thermal Influence on US Coastal Air Temperatures
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Oceans don’t always balance regional temperatures. In general, the ocean has a moderating influence on coastal air temperatures, warming in winter and cooling in summer. However, the authors find that on the U.S. East Coast south of Cape Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream is close to the coast), the ocean’s nighttime warming outweighs its daytime cooling effect, leading to an overall warming influence in spring/summer.

Design Challenges in the Hurricane Track Forecast Cone: Insights from Focus Groups with Under-Represented Populations
Weather, Climate, and Society

Disadvantaged communities struggle with the hurricane forecast cone. Focus groups of native Spanish speakers and members of economically disadvantaged communities in Miami examined the National Hurricane Center's popular Track Forecast Cone. Participants perceived the graphic to have too much clutter and an unclear layout. They struggled to interpret the cone shape, symbols and colors, watches and warnings, and forecast periods. They also expressed difficulty in using the graphic to make decisions. Some difficulties arose from issues interpreting the legend based on language and measurement conventions.

Institutional Conservation and Carbon Emission Mitigation: County-Level Evidence from the Establishment of China’s National Parks
Weather, Climate, and Society

National parks reduce emissions in China. The establishment of national parks in China is found to reduce county-level carbon emission intensity by fostering tertiary sector growth in low-carbon, high-value-added green services, such as ecotourism and cultural experiences, and by enhancing forest ecological benefits such as carbon sequestration.

How Have the Intrinsic Characteristics and Application of the Enhanced Fujita Scale Contributed to a Decreased Frequency of Intense Tornadoes in the United States?
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Intense tornado “drought” a product of the EF scale. In recent years (2014–23), fewer tornadoes have been rated at significant levels (EF3+) than in the past. This study adds evidence that this decrease is driven by differences in design and use between the old Fujita (F) and current Enhanced Fujita (EF) intensity scales, not by weather changes. The authors call for a reevaluation of the tornado record in the United States to create a more consistent record.

Water-Constrained Revegetation Potential in China’s Drylands Using a Multi-Data Ensemble Approach
Journal of Hydrometeorology

Determining water budgets for reforestation. Reforestation is an important natural form of carbon sequestration. The authors analyze tradeoffs between water conservation and reforestation in China, finding that in water-scarce areas, even using less water-intensive vegetation does not offset the water consumed. However, in areas of water surplus it is feasible to plant vegetation that consumes more water.

Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
Weather, Climate, and Society

Climate change impacts Chilean sports across seasons and categories. A literature review finds that among Chilean sports, “warm-season activities are increasingly constrained by heat stress and wildfire smoke; winter sports face shorter and less reliable seasons under declining snowpack; high-Andean sports are affected by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and route instability; and water-based sports are influenced by altered hydrology, atmospheric river events, storm surges, and coastal erosion.”

A Multi-model Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi
Journal of Hydrometeorology

Climate change will increase irrigation challenges in Malawi. In Malawian river basins, there is very little buffer between the onset of meteorological drought and the diminishing of stream flow, this finds a multi-model study. This means water demand for irrigation often coincides with reduced water availability, a situation likely to worsen with climate change.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

 

Cyclone clusters in the Arctic reduce sea ice and threaten coastlines

Rapid series of low-pressure systems can cause weather conditions under which the ice can only hardly recover. This affects Arctic coastlines and the global climate system

Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

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Arctic Sea Ice Floes

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Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut

In the Arctic, the weather plays a key role in determining how much ice covers the ocean. One weather phenomenon that has a significant influence on this is Arctic cyclones: they cause unusually warm and stormy conditions, which typically lead to a significant loss of ice. These conditions last for a particularly long time when several cyclones rapidly follow one another. An international research team led by the Alfred Wegener Institute has now, for the first time, systematically investigated the effects of these accumulating cyclones, using weather data from recent decades. In the journal Nature Communications, they have described this ‘cyclone clustering’ and its specific consequences for the future of sea ice and, by extension, the Arctic coastline.

‘Cyclone clustering’ occurs when several low-pressure systems rapidly pass through a particular area one after another, causing storms that are more severe and last longer than ‘normal’ storms. “In Europe, such events have frequently led to significant damage in the past due to high winds, heavy rainfall or high tide levels along the coast,” says Dr Lars Aue, lead author of the study from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). 

To find out whether cyclone clustering also occurs in the Arctic and how these intense weather events affect Arctic sea ice, an international research team led by the AWI systematically analyzed and compared satellite and weather data from 1979 to 2024. “We adapted an algorithm for tracking weather systems so that it could detect rapidly consecutive cyclones in the Arctic,” explains Lars Aue. “We were then able to compare the state of the sea ice on satellite images before and after a cluster had passed through.”

The results show that, where cyclones coincide with Arctic sea ice, they break up the ice cover and cause ice floes to drift and collide. During the cold Arctic winter, the gaps that emerge as a result, normally refreeze within a few days. However, when a cluster of cyclones hits the sea ice, the persistent stormy conditions delay and hinder the gaps from closing again. During the warmer months, Arctic cyclone clusters are less intense, however, they can still have a significant local impact on the sea ice: they drive ice floes northwards and push them into the existing ice. This reduces the area over which the sea ice is spread. The storms also carry warm air with them, which thaws the ice from above, furthermore, they can also transport warmer seawater from deeper layers to the surface, causing the upper water masses to warm up. Over the last two decades, cyclones have thus contributed to ice loss, particularly towards the end of the melting season. 

The number of storms that accumulate in a cyclone cluster varies depending on the region and the season, but averages 2.5 cyclones. Similarly, their impact also depends on when and where they occur. There are regions where the effect on sea ice is amplified by up to 1.5 times, and regions where the effect is amplified by up to 7 times. “On average across the entire Arctic, cyclone clusters reduce Arctic sea ice cover by about twice as much as conventional, isolated low-pressure systems. This condition also lasts about two and a half times longer,” says Lars Aue. 

Another worrying finding of the study is that the loss of Arctic sea ice caused by cyclone clusters has increased significantly over recent decades. One reason for this is that the ice is losing its resilience to storms caused by cyclones, as it is becoming thinner and more mobile due to ongoing global warming. In summer, this could be further amplified by the increasingly warmer Arctic Ocean. “We could be entering a self-enforcing feedback loop: the weaker the sea ice becomes, the more cyclone clusters can reduce its extent, which in turn weakens the sea ice,” says Lars Aue. “Currently, we are using climate projections to investigate whether the intensification of the effects of cyclone clusters that we have seen in recent decades could continue in the future.”

The study highlights just how strongly weather events influence sea ice and how important it is that we understand the causes and effects of cyclone clusters in the Arctic. This is crucial, as coastal communities in the Arctic are increasingly exposed to dangerous weather events due to increasing cyclone activity: sea ice acts as a buffer against waves. Its retreat, combined with the increasing thawing of permafrost, is making coasts more vulnerable to storms. “Until now, there has been no systematic analysis of the impacts of cyclone clusters in the Arctic. With our work, we are filling a knowledge gap and lay an important foundation for projections that can depict the future of the Arctic sea ice - a central component of the global climate system - as accurate as possible.”

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-026-76245-5 

Article Title

On the relevance of serial cyclone clustering for Arctic sea ice

Article Publication Date

15-Aug-2026

 

Ancient warming event hints at potential climate 'tipping point'

Melting permafrost 304 million years ago might have released vast amounts of carbon into atmosphere

University of Cincinnati

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University of Cincinnati Professor Thomas Algeo stands in front of rock cores in his geosciences lab.

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Credit: Andrew Higley

Researchers say a spike in temperatures during an ice age 304 million years ago could inform what climate scientists are learning about rapidly changing conditions today.

University of Cincinnati Professor Thomas Algeo worked with a team of international researchers, including lead author Le Yao from the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology, to examine a period of rapid warming that occurred during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age, the second most recent ice age on Earth.

They found that a small spike in global sea surface temperatures led to a far bigger one fed by the release of methane into the atmosphere from melting permafrost. Global sea surface temperatures climbed by more than 7 degrees Celsius or 12 degrees Fahrenheit.

The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It was supported with grants from Peking University and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Algeo noted that the change occurred over tens of thousands of years at a rate of about a tenth of a degree Celsius increase every 1,000 years. By comparison, researchers today have observed a nearly 1 degree Celsius increase of sea surface temperature in just the past 100 years.

Possibly triggered by volcanic activity and aided by a cyclical variation in the shape of Earth’s orbit that influences the distribution of solar radiation, a modest release of carbon crossed a “climatic tipping point that led to massive carbon release and transient global warming.”

Researchers said an increase in temperatures today could speed melting of permafrost, releasing trapped carbon that could create a positive feedback loop that contributes to more warming.

Rapid warming on Earth more typically happens under what scientists call “greenhouse conditions” when the atmosphere has high amounts of methane and carbon dioxide that trap heat.

Algeo said some people are surprised to learn that all of recorded human history has taken place in the midst of the most recent ice age. Its peak called a glacial maximum occurred about 20,000 years ago when woolly mammoths, cave bears and giant ground sloths roamed the Earth.

“We’re technically in an ice age because there are two continent-scale ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica,” he said. “What makes this warming event 304 million years ago unique is that it occurred during an ice age. That’s what makes this event important as an analog for modern-day climate warming.”

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2601643123 

Article Title

A transient global warming event during Earth’s penultimate icehouse

Article Publication Date

10-Aug-2026

University of Cincinnati Professor Thomas Algeo pulls out rock cores to examine in his geosciences lab.

Credit

Andrew Higley

An iceberg off Antarctica.

A tabular iceberg off Antarctica.

An iceberg melts on the Southern Ocean.

Credit

Michael Miller

The Arctic In A Changing World: Climate, Security And Ethics Of Global Governance – Analysis

August 6, 2026

By K.M. Seethi

Key Takeaways:

Climate change is transforming the Arctic into a new arena of geopolitical competition by opening shipping routes, exposing resources and increasing military activity among the US, Russia, NATO, the EU and China.

The region is shifting from post-Cold War cooperation (Arctic Council) to strategic rivalry, creating a security dilemma that raises risks of miscalculation, including in the nuclear domain.

Sustainable Arctic governance requires balancing security interests with environmental protection, scientific cooperation and the rights of the nearly four million people—especially Indigenous communities—who live there.

The Arctic is rapidly becoming one of the principal arenas of twenty-first century geopolitical competition. The retreat of sea ice, driven by accelerating climate change, is opening new maritime routes, exposing vast reserves of hydrocarbons and critical minerals, and expanding access to strategic waters that were once locked beneath permanent ice. What was long regarded as a region of scientific inquiry and environmental conservation has become an area where military strategy, economic interests and great-power rivalry increasingly have assumed considerable importance.

The United States, Russia, NATO and the European Union are expanding their strategic presence across the High North through military deployments, naval exercises, surveillance systems, icebreaker fleets and critical infrastructure projects. China, although not an Arctic state, is steadily broadening its scientific, commercial and technological engagement, viewing the region as an important component of its long-term global strategy. The Arctic has consequently become an arena where geopolitical ambitions increasingly interconnect one of the world’s fastest-changing environments.

This growing competition could be seen against a backdrop of profound ecological transformation. Rising temperatures, thawing permafrost, disappearing sea ice and changing marine ecosystems are changing the physical geography of the Arctic at an unprecedented pace. These environmental changes are creating new economic opportunities while simultaneously increasing ecological vulnerability. As strategic competition intensifies, concerns over environmental protection, Indigenous rights and international cooperation have been overshadowed by military calculations and resource politics.

Climate Change is Transforming the Arctic

Few regions demonstrate the consequences of climate change more clearly than the Arctic. Scientific observations show that the region is warming nearly four times faster than the global average. Rising temperatures have accelerated the melting of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and erosion of Arctic coastlines. These changes are transforming landscapes that have remained relatively stable for thousands of years.

The consequences go beyond the Arctic itself. Melting sea ice is opening new shipping routes that were once inaccessible for much of the year. Areas previously locked beneath permanent ice are attracting growing interest because of their reserves of oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals and other critical resources. Fisheries are also shifting as marine ecosystems respond to warming waters. What was once largely inaccessible has become increasingly reachable, drawing governments, industries and military planners into a region that was previously regarded as geographically remote.

Climate change is also exposing hidden environmental risks. Arctic permafrost contains approximately 1,300 gigatonnes of organic carbon, while marine sediments and river deltas store another 400 gigatonnes. As frozen ground thaws, increasing quantities of this ancient carbon enter Arctic rivers and coastal waters. Recent research from the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen offers a more nuanced understanding of this process. Scientists found that although large amounts of carbon are released into the Arctic Ocean, much of it becomes buried in seabed sediments rather than immediately returning to the atmosphere. Microorganisms consume only about 10 per cent of the carbon deposited in marine sediments, while the remainder is stored beneath the seafloor. These findings may improve climate models, although researchers caution that thawing permafrost continues to alter Arctic ecosystems in complex ways that remain poorly understood.


The movement of sediments and organic material is already affecting marine biodiversity. Increased sediment loads reduce the amount of sunlight reaching underwater ecosystems, influencing algae that support fish, crustaceans and marine mammals. The Arctic’s ecological changes therefore extend from microscopic organisms to entire food webs upon which Indigenous communities have depended for generations. Climate change is transforming economic opportunities, transportation networks, ecological systems and political calculations simultaneously.

Climate Change and the Return of Geopolitics

Environmental transformation has coincided with a profound turn in global politics. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, major powers increasingly regard the region as strategically indispensable. The United States has substantially elevated the Arctic within its national security agenda. A striking illustration is President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a programme to construct 11 heavy polar icebreakers through a partnership with Finland, valued at approximately US$7 billion. Trump has long argued that the United States has lagged behind Russia in Arctic capabilities. He frequently contrasts America’s small operational icebreaker fleet with Russia’s 56 polar icebreakers and China’s growing Arctic presence.


The administration argues that expanded icebreaking capacity is essential for protecting American interests as shipping routes expand and strategic competition intensifies. Critics, however, question both the scale of the programme and the procurement process. The United States Coast Guard’s own assessment had concluded that four or five heavy icebreakers would adequately meet operational requirements. Independent analysts have also questioned whether sufficient long-term funding exists to maintain such a large fleet after construction.

The renewed American interest goes beyond ships. President Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in Greenland, arguing that its location gives it exceptional strategic value for North American security. These remarks have generated unease in Greenland, Denmark and among several European allies, who fear that the Arctic is increasingly being viewed primarily through the prism of strategic competition rather than partnership.

The European Union has also reassessed its Arctic outlook. A recent policy brief argues that the Union’s 2021 Arctic Strategy recommends treating the Arctic, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea as a single strategic theatre. It calls for greater investment in surveillance systems, satellites, underwater autonomous technologies, critical infrastructure and Arctic communications, while also reducing European dependence on imported critical minerals. The report further argues that climate change should be understood as a security multiplier because it increases military activity, exposes critical infrastructure and opens new navigation routes. At the same time, it emphasises that Europe must continue supporting Indigenous communities and sustainable regional development alongside its expanding security agenda.

A Changing Security Landscape

The transformation of the Arctic is equally evident in military planning. NATO has significantly expanded its presence following the accession of Finland and Sweden, bringing seven of the eight Arctic states within the Alliance. New initiatives such as Arctic Sentry, Forward Land Forces Finland, expanded Iceland Air Policing and the establishment of a Combined Air Operations Centre in northern Norway illustrate an effort to improve surveillance, interoperability and operational readiness across the High North.

Military cooperation has also become increasingly sophisticated. The United States and Norway have intensified joint coast guard operations, naval exercises and the testing of unmanned surface and underwater vehicles capable of operating in Arctic conditions. Maritime exercises now routinely involve multiple Arctic partners, reflecting a growing emphasis on coordinated responses across the North Atlantic and Arctic waters.

For NATO, these measures respond primarily to Russia’s expanding military infrastructure, renewed activity on the Kola Peninsula and increasing cooperation between Russia and China. From Moscow’s perspective, however, NATO’s enlargement and expanding military presence represent a direct challenge to Russian security. The result is a classic security dilemma in which each side justifies its own military expansion as defensive while interpreting the other’s actions as threatening.

The Arctic is consequently becoming an arena where climate change and strategic rivalry reinforce one another. Melting sea ice opens new opportunities for navigation and resource extraction. Those opportunities encourage greater military presence. Increased military activity, in turn, raises the risk of miscalculation in a region where communication channels and confidence-building mechanisms have weakened considerably.

The Arctic’s Emerging Nuclear Dimension

The Arctic has long occupied a central place in the strategic calculations of nuclear powers. Much of Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent is concentrated in the High North, including strategic submarines, missile early-warning systems and major military installations. During the Cold War, the region formed one of the principal frontiers of nuclear competition. Today, climate change is altering the physical environment in which these strategic systems operate.

The retreat of sea ice is making Arctic waters more accessible to naval forces while simultaneously changing submarine operating conditions. Military vessels from several countries are likely to encounter one another more frequently in increasingly navigable waters. Such encounters increase the possibility of misunderstanding, accidents or escalation between nuclear-armed states. The Arctic is therefore becoming an area where environmental change and strategic instability intersect.

Another concern lies beneath the thawing ground itself. Large quantities of radioactive waste remain buried in former Soviet military sites, including areas around Novaya Zemlya and locations where decommissioned nuclear submarines were disposed of during the Cold War. Rising temperatures and thawing permafrost may expose or destabilise these contaminated sites, creating environmental hazards whose long-term consequences remain uncertain.

The enlargement of NATO has further altered the Arctic security system. With Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance, almost the entire Arctic now falls within NATO’s collective defence framework, while Russia continues to strengthen its military infrastructure across its northern territories. Some European policymakers have also reopened discussions on strengthening independent nuclear deterrence in response to growing uncertainty about long-term American security commitments. These developments suggest that climate change, conventional military competition and nuclear security increasingly reinforce one another, demanding new approaches to governance and risk reduction.

From Cooperation to Strategic Competition

For nearly three decades after the end of the Cold War, the Arctic was widely regarded as an example of constructive international cooperation. The establishment of the Arctic Council in 1996 created a forum where the eight Arctic states worked together on scientific research, environmental protection and sustainable development despite wider political differences. Indigenous organisations also gained an unprecedented institutional voice through their participation as Permanent Participants.

That cooperative spirit has weakened considerably. Relations deteriorated after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and reached a new low following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ministerial cooperation within the Arctic Council has largely stalled, while scientific collaboration has become increasingly difficult. Institutions that once encouraged dialogue now struggle to function amid growing geopolitical tensions.

At the same time, security concerns have moved to the forefront of Arctic policy. NATO has expanded its operational presence, while Arctic governments have strengthened surveillance systems, military exercises and maritime coordination. The European Union has proposed integrating Arctic security more closely with defence planning, critical infrastructure protection and industrial policy. Hybrid threats—including repeated damage to submarine communication cables and other critical infrastructure—have reinforced the perception that the Arctic is inevitably a part of the geopolitical confrontations.

The danger is that military preparedness, while understandable in an uncertain security environment, may gradually replace dialogue as the dominant language of Arctic governance. Without sustained diplomatic engagement, confidence-building measures and scientific cooperation, the region has become another arena where rivalry overshadows shared responsibility.

Listening to the People of the Arctic

Amid discussions of military strategy, shipping routes and critical minerals, one reality is often overlooked: the Arctic is home to nearly four million people. For Indigenous communities, including the Sámi, Inuit and many others, the Arctic is neither a strategic frontier nor an economic opportunity. It is home, history and identity.

Finnish Arctic scholar Markku Heikkilä argues that the future of the North cannot be decided solely by governments, military planners or corporations. Decisions about infrastructure, mining and resource development must also reflect the knowledge and aspirations of the people who have lived in the Arctic for generations. The debate surrounding the proposed Sakatti copper-nickel mine in Finnish Lapland illustrates these tensions. While the project could contribute to Europe’s demand for critical minerals, it also threatens ecologically sensitive wetlands protected under the Natura 2000 network and raises concerns among reindeer-herding communities. Similar dilemmas are emerging across the Arctic as governments seek greater access to minerals considered essential for the global energy transition.

These debates remind us that sustainable development must be evaluated by its effects on ecosystems, cultural continuity and community well-being. Indigenous knowledge, accumulated over centuries of living in demanding Arctic environments, remains indispensable for understanding ecological change and promoting sustainable governance. The Arctic therefore requires a model of development that places local communities alongside governments and scientists in shaping public policy.

Towards an Ethics of Stewardship

The Arctic raises questions that are more significant unlike geopolitical concerns. It challenges humanity to reconsider its relationship with nature at a time when environmental change is unfolding faster than political institutions can respond. Climate change has demonstrated that ecological systems do not recognise political boundaries. Carbon released from thawing permafrost, rising sea levels and changing ocean currents affect societies far beyond the Arctic Circle.

An ethical approach begins by recognising that security goes beyond military capability. Genuine security also depends on ecological stability, scientific cooperation, respect for Indigenous rights and responsible stewardship of natural resources. Policies that treat the Arctic merely as a theatre for strategic competition would accelerate the very instability they seek to prevent.

Even during periods of political disagreement, scientific cooperation has often remained one of the few channels through which trust can be sustained. Collaborative research on climate change, biodiversity, marine ecosystems and environmental monitoring should therefore be strengthened rather than weakened by geopolitical tensions.

There is also a compelling case for renewing multilateral dialogue. Several scholars have proposed complementary mechanisms involving governments, military officials, coast guards, scientists and Indigenous representatives to address practical concerns such as maritime safety, environmental emergencies, nuclear risk reduction and search-and-rescue cooperation. Such initiatives will not eliminate strategic competition, but they can reduce the risk of misunderstanding and encourage confidence-building where formal diplomacy has become difficult.

The upshot is that the we cannot allow Arctic to become another arena where environmental change is viewed primarily as an opportunity for strategic gain. We should, instead, remind the international community that ecological responsibility and peaceful cooperation remain indispensable foundations of global security.


About K.M. Seethi

K.M. Seethi is Director, Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala. He also served as ICSSR Senior Fellow, Senior Professor of International Relations and Dean of Social Sciences at MGU. One of his latest works is "ENDURING DILEMMA Flashpoints in Kashmir and India-Pakistan Relations."
View all posts by K.M. Seethi →

Fish over Trump: Economy will determine Iceland's vote on the EU

Copyright AP Photo

By Vincenzo Genovese

Published on 07/08/2026 - EURONEWS

While Arctic security and US claims over Greenland dominate international headlines, Icelanders are set to decide their European future on far more familiar grounds such as fish and farming. The 29 August referendum is less about geopolitics than sovereignty and identity.

Blue whiting, mackerel and golden redfish could prove more decisive at the ballot box than US President Donald Trump's expansionist ambitions, Russia's looming threats or European politicians' sweet nothings.

In Iceland, where the sea shapes the economy, livelihoods and national identity, the most significant crossroads of the last decade ultimately comes down to one thing: fish.

On 29 August, Icelanders will vote on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union, restarting a process that was frozen in 2013. If voters approve, negotiations with Brussels will kick off again – with the prospect of joining the EU sooner than other countries on the waiting list.

At first glance, the geopolitical timing seems obvious. The United States' renewed interest in Greenland, combined with the long war in Ukraine, has pushed the Arctic higher on Europe's strategic agenda, while Icelanders appear increasingly caught between two great powers.

Yet beneath the headlines, the campaign tells a different story. This referendum is being fought over economics, sovereignty and, above all, control of Iceland's fishing grounds, according to Eirikur Bergmann, politics professor at Bifröst University and one of the country's best-known political writers.

“Icelanders are split in half,” he said, arguing that public debate still centres, as it always has, on the benefits of adopting the euro and the risks facing the fishing industry.

Fishermen's concerns are Iceland's concerns

While fishing's share of Iceland's GDP is declining, it still accounted for about 8% in 2024. It remains one of the country's largest export industries and the backbone of many coastal communities.

This isn't the first time Icelanders have fought over the sea: during the three “Cod Wars” between 1958 and 1976, Reykjavík successfully defended its maritime claims against the United Kingdom.

Today, the threat comes from the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), which manages fishing resources among member states. The “shared fish stocks” that fall under the jurisdiction of more than one state, with a division of catch quotas, are the biggest concern for the Icelandic fishing industry, prompting exemptions or special arrangements if the country joins the EU.

Iceland's fishing industry is indeed built around one of the world's most sophisticated quota systems. It sets scientifically based catch limits and allocates fishing rights to each vessel, with quotas that can also be traded.

For fishermen in coastal towns such as Ísafjörður or Vestmannaeyjar, local media report that the question is not only how much fish Iceland can catch, but also who should have the right to decide who catches it.

As Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir said in a recent interview, fisheries and agriculture are likely to become the toughest chapters in any renewed accession talks.

Like fishermen, Iceland's farmers also operate under one of Europe's most protected agricultural systems, supported by public subsidies designed to compensate for the country's harsh climate and small domestic market.

For them, the feared acronym is CAP (Common Agricultural Policy), the EU agriculture overhaul which distributes subsidies according to common rules and could disrupt the entire domestic system.

Supporters of EU integration are also betting on economic advantages for their campaign.

The biggest is the eventual adoption of the euro. This would eliminate exchange-rate volatility caused by the Icelandic krona, bringing down inflation, interest rates and the cost of international trade, as highlighted in a recent report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

A referendum born by chance

This renewed interest in Europe is not a response to Trump's repeated statements about Greenland and expansion ambitions in the Arctic region.

While the United States has long been Iceland's principal security guarantor through NATO and cooperation with the EU becomes more attractive if Washington becomes less predictable, the security issue has neither shaped domestic politics nor is it dominating the discussion on the referendum.

“I wouldn't say that has properly filtered into the debate yet,” Bergmann said, arguing that the country decided to hold the referendum after the 2024 election.

“This is prior to the second term of Donald Trump and prior to these geopolitical changes. The security defence issue was not a part of that decision,” he said.

The referendum is the consequence of a change in government rather than a dramatic shift in public opinion.

A Eurosceptic coalition came to power in 2013, suspending negotiations and later withdrawing Iceland's application altogether, without consulting the electorate. The pendulum swung back in 2024, and a coalition of pro-European parties pledged to let Icelanders decide whether negotiations should resume.

“The only reason Iceland is moving ahead now is that we have a change in government. But the EU question had nothing to do with these parties coming to power,” Bergmann said.

He believes this explains why opinion polls remain finely balanced, with Icelanders revisiting a question that has divided the country since the early 2000s.

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have reminded Iceland that the international order is changing, but voters entering polling stations are likely to think less about Greenland or Russia's ambitions in the Arctic than about domestic economic concerns.

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A clear path to the EU

While Icelanders remain divided over whether negotiations should even resume, Iceland would probably face a smoother accession process than many candidate countries in the Western Balkans or Eastern Europe.

Iceland is already deeply integrated into Europe: it's a member of the single market through the European Economic Area (EEA), and enjoys free movement of people, goods, services and capital within the Schengen area.

Negotiations would not start from scratch, but would be built on the results of the previous agreements.

By the time Iceland withdrew its application in 2013, 27 negotiating chapters had been opened, 11 of which had been provisionally closed.

If negotiations resume, the European Commission will first need to assess the legislative changes that have taken place in Iceland over the past decade before discussions can formally restart.

“Beyond the technicalities, it is clear that Iceland would be going into the negotiations one step ahead, compared to another candidate country,” an EU official told Euronews.

The Nordic country is also largely aligned with the EU on democratic standards, according to Valérie Hayer, leader of the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament and one of the staunchest supporters of Iceland’s accession.

“It is already a highly capable democratic partner (which) shares common values and (which) already plays a pivotal role in North Atlantic security,” she said, claiming that adding Reykjavík would reinforce the EU’s geopolitical reach.

European politicians and EU officials stressed that Iceland has nothing to lose in EU membership talks and that joining the Union poses no threat to the Icelandic language: it would enjoy the same official status as other EU languages, despite being spoken by fewer than 400,000 people.

Even so, for many Icelanders, the referendum on Europe raises deeper questions of identity. Some fear joining a supranational institution would result in a gradual erosion of Iceland's political autonomy, a particularly sensitive issue for a country that achieved full independence from Denmark in the 20th century.

The future of Iceland's relationship with Europe may ultimately depend on emotional considerations, another EU official familiar with the matter told Euronews.

“Voting will take place on the mainland, but people will vote looking at the sea.”