New method estimates sea surface temps quickly and accurately

North Carolina State University

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBluesky
Email

Researchers have developed a method for extrapolating sea surface temperatures from sparse data that is significantly more accurate than other commonly used computational methods and slightly more accurate than the best-performing AI model, while taking a fraction of the time to train. The work has implications for both short-term weather forecasting and longer-term climate predictions.

“Sea surface temperatures (SST) are a key factor in understanding everything from marine ecosystems and climate to weather predictions, but there are limitations to our ability to collect that data, so we often have sparse, or limited data,” says Mohammad Farazmand, associate professor of mathematics at North Carolina State University and corresponding author of the research.

SST data are collected from sources such as buoys and satellites, but there are limitations to each method. Buoys are more accurate but limited in number, while satellites cover more area, but atmospheric conditions can interfere with their accuracy. So oceanographers use complicated mathematical models to get the most accurate estimations of sea surface temperatures.

“Historically, federal agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have used a combination of complicated differential equations to calculate these temperatures from sparse data,” Farazmand says.

“Recently some AI or machine learning models have been developed, but they are expensive both computationally and in terms of the time needed to train them. We wanted to see how our method stacked up against different computational methods such as Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) and some of the newer AI models.”

DEIM doesn’t rely solely on complicated mathematical models. Instead, it specifies a basis, or combination of patterns, that encodes information about the specific field you’re trying to estimate – in this case, SST. However, DEIM does not work well with sparse data.

Farazmand and the team developed a new method, Sparse Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (S-DEIM). To compensate for missing, or sparse, data, S-DEIM utilizes historical data to estimate a so-called kernel vector, for which there is no closed-form mathematical formula.

The team compared the S-DEIM method to both DEIM and the highest performing AI model, a convolutional neuronal network (CNN), using a dataset containing 30 years of NOAA data. They withheld the last year of data from the models and asked them to predict what that final year’s SSTs would be. Then they compared the models’ predictions to that historical data.

S-DEIM was 40% more accurate than DEIM, and 2% more accurate than CNN. Additionally, the S-DEIM model took only one minute to train compared to 1 ½ hours for the CNN.

The researchers hope to continue improving the S-DEIM method’s accuracy.

“This work shows that S-DEIM is capable of utilizing sparse data to provide accurate results while reducing training and computational time,” Farazmand says.

The work appears in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation and was part of a research experience for undergraduates (REU) partially supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under award DMS-2349611 as well as through grant DMS-2220548 (Algorithms for Threat Detection Program) and award DMS-2342344. REU participants and co-authors are Cassidy All, University of Colorado Boulder; Kevin Ho, Mississippi State University; Maya Magnuski, Bard College; and Christopher Nicolaides, Indiana University. Louisa Ebby, graduate student at NC State, also contributed to the work.

-peake-

Note to editors: An abstract follows.

“Rapid Estimation of Global Sea Surface Temperatures From Sparse Streaming In Situ Observations”

DOI: 10.1029/2026JH001279

Authors: Cassidy All, University of Colorado Boulder; Kevin Ho, Mississippi State University; Maya Magnuski, Bard College; Christopher Nicolaides, Indiana University; Louisa B. Ebby, Mohammad Farazmand, North Carolina State University
Published: Aug. 27, 2026 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation

Abstract:
Reconstructing high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from staggered SST measurements is essential for analyzing earth system processes. However, when SST measurements are sparse, the resulting inferred SST fields are rather inaccurate. Here, we show that Sparse Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (S-DEIM) can be used as a model-free data assimilation method to reconstruct high-resolution SST fields from sparse in situ observations. The S-DEIM estimate consists of two terms, one computed from instantaneous in situ observations using empirical interpolation, and the other learned from the historical time series of observations using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We train the RNNs using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s weekly high-resolution SST data set spanning the years 1989–2021 which constitutes the training data. Subsequently, we examine the performance of S-DEIM on the test data, comprising January 2022 to January 2023. For this test data, S-DEIM infers the high-resolution SST from 100 in situ observations, constituting only 0.2% of the high-resolution spatial grid. We show that the resulting S-DEIM reconstructions are about 40% more accurate than earlier empirical interpolation methods, such as DEIM and Q-DEIM. Furthermore, 91% of S-DEIM estimates fall within ±1°C of the true SST. We also demonstrate that S-DEIM is robust with respect to sensor placement: even when the sensors are distributed randomly, S-DEIM reconstruction error deteriorates only by 1%–2%. S-DEIM is also computationally efficient: training the RNN, which is performed only once offline, takes approximately 1 minute. Once trained, the S-DEIM reconstructions are computed in less than a second.

---

Journal

Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation

DOI

10.1029/2026JH001279 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Rapid Estimation of Global Sea Surface Temperatures From Sparse Streaming In Situ Observations

Rising sea levels could cost Australians at least $855 billion by 2100

Rising sea levels and storm surges could cost $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, according to new Australian-first research

University of Melbourne

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

Rising sea levels and storm surges could cost $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, according to new Australian-first research.

Published in Nature Scientific Reports, the study was conducted by researchers at the University of Melbourne and Australian National University.

The researchers estimate coastal flooding could affect almost 270,000 properties and two million hectares of land across Australia by 2100 under a moderate-emissions scenario, including residential homes, farms, critical infrastructure and environmental assets.

 This new research uses a future scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called SSP2-4.5, which is an intermediate greenhouse gas and global response scenario leading to around 2.7°C of average global warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is seen as broadly consistent with a continuation of current climate policies, but well above the safe level climate change of 1.5C signed in the Paris Agreement.

The research also estimates damages from sea level rise and storm surge for a very high emissions scenario.

The study, led by University of Melbourne Professor Tom Kompas, underpins the Climate Council’s new Rising Seas Rising Bills report, also co-authored by Professor Kompas.

Researchers first mapped areas likely to be flooded using sea-level projections, storm-surge estimates and Australia’s elevation data, then identified the properties and land within those areas and estimated their value, drawing from a host of data sources and empirical measures.

They then used statistical modelling to estimate how severely those assets could be damaged over time, and the resulting physical damages were translated into economic losses.

The research estimates every State and the Northern Territory will bear significant economic costs from rising sea levels, ranging from $230.5 billion in Western Australia to $7.9 billion in Tasmania.

Projected losses for Queensland are $214.5 billion, followed by Victoria ($167 billion), New South Wales ($151 billion), South Australia ($49.2 billion) and the Northern Territory ($35.2 billion).

The research found Queensland has the greatest number of properties at risk (93,157) followed by New South Wales (71,210) and Western Australia (51,366).

The findings also revealed the Gold Coast alone faces $84.4 billion in projected economic losses – the single most exposed urban area in Australia.

The modelling uses a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, holds storm intensity constant, and excludes losses from erosion.

The possibility of rapid collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica – and up to 2m of sea level rise by the end of the century - is not reflected in the economic losses.

Professor Kompas said: “Sea level rise may physically affect a large number of Australians who live near the coast, as the majority of Australians live within 50 kilometres of the coastline.

“Based on current projections, millions of hectares of land are at risk by 2100, and the costs will be substantial with damages including housing, essential infrastructure, ecosystem services and valuable agricultural land.”

Professor Kompas is a Chief Investigator in the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) and Research Group Director of the Centre for Environmental and Economic Research, both part of the University’s Faculty of Science.

Climate Councillor, Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins, co-author of the Climate Council’s Rising Seas Rising Bills report, said: “When Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit, families watched their beaches disappear overnight. It cost the City of Gold Coast $35 million in beach repairs, and communities up and down the east coast are still recovering from the damage.

“This is how sea level rise packs a punch, through worsening the impacts from storm surges and major coastal flooding, hitting coastal communities harder, more often.”

Professor Kompas said communities need to be better prepared.

“Because carbon emissions have remained too high, we have already locked in a certain level of sea level rise,” Professor Kompas said.

“Our least costly option is to avoid building in places where we know the risks are highest, and there’s a lot we can do to restore our coastlines and build in ways that reduce future risks. These are hard, but necessary decisions that communities are already facing.”

Dr Watkins notes: “Powerful storm surges are riding on higher seas, putting coastal homes and infrastructure at greater risk. This research shows we can expect the economic losses in Australia to skyrocket into hundreds of billions of dollars if we fail to act.

“The sea level rise in the report is a conservative estimate, and the rapid loss of ice sheets and glaciers could push sea levels even higher.

“This is a slow onset disaster, and our political and business leaders need to act by cutting pollution faster and preparing communities.”

 

 

 

---

Journal

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-026-67957-1 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Nationwide economic impacts of sea level rise and storm surge from global warming in Australia

Article Publication Date

9-Sep-2026

 

First-ever Aussie study of “forever chemicals” in rain finds safe concentrations for drinking water

RMIT University

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

Professor Oliver Jones (right) and PhD student Nav Singh conduct research in the lab at RMIT University in Melbourne.

view more 

Credit: Ant Bragaglia, RMIT University

The first Australian study of PFAS – so called “forever chemicals” – in rainwater has found safe concentrations of the chemicals according to the NHMRC Australian Drinking Water Guidelines.

Researchers from RMIT University and EPA Victoria detected eight PFAS compounds in rainwater samples collected in Melbourne between 2024 and 2025.

PFAS are a large family of human-made chemicals comprising thousands of individual compounds used in products ranging from firefighting foams and food packaging to textiles, cosmetics and non-stick cookware.

While the findings may reassure people who rely on rainwater tanks, the study also offers clues about how these chemicals reach waterways and catchments far from obvious sources of contamination.

PFAS can enter the atmosphere attached to dust particles or tiny water droplets, travelling long distances before returning to the environment through rainfall.

Based on Melbourne rainfall and the concentrations measured in the study, the researchers estimated that rain might deliver about 10.6 kilograms of PFAS directly to Port Phillip Bay each year. That is about 5.5 grams/km² for the entire Port Phillip Bay, which has a surface area of 1,930 km².

The estimate suggests rainfall could be an important pathway for PFAS entering waterways, alongside better-known sources such as wastewater, urban runoff and landfill.

Managing contamination risks

Lead researcher Professor Oliver Jones, from RMIT’s School of Science, said the findings addressed a long-standing question about how PFAS sometimes appear in places where there were no obvious nearby sources.

"Finding PFAS in rain isn't surprising given how widespread these chemicals are in the environment," Jones said.

Jones said detecting a chemical did not automatically mean there was a health risk.

“The more useful question isn't whether a chemical is toxic, but whether it's present at a concentration that could actually cause harm,” he said.

“Dose and exposure matter.”

The researchers hope the work will encourage broader monitoring of PFAS in rainfall across Australia and improve understanding of how these chemicals move through the environment.

"The more important questions are how much is there, where did it come from and what does it tell us about how PFAS moves through the environment?"

"In our samples, concentrations of the two most well-known PFAS – PFOS and PFOA – were below current Australian drinking water guideline values, which should provide some reassurance for people who use rainwater as a source of drinking water."

Tracking PFAS through the atmosphere

The project aimed to test a new analytical method designed to measure very low concentrations of contaminants in small-volume samples such as rainwater.

The researchers analysed rainwater collected on three occasions and tested for 30 PFAS compounds.

“Eight compounds were detected, with concentrations generally measured in nanograms per litre,” Jones said.

“For context, one nanogram per litre is one part per trillion, so we are talking very low concentrations indeed.”

The study took a new turn when EPA Victoria collaborators contributed atmospheric modelling data, enabling the team to investigate the origins of air masses associated with each rainfall event.

Using atmospheric modelling, the researchers found rain linked to air travelling over land contained higher PFAS concentrations compared to over the ocean.

The finding suggests urban and industrial areas may be important sources of airborne PFAS deposited elsewhere through rainfall.

Lead author, PhD student Nav Singh, said the study contributed new and important knowledge on PFAS in the environment.

“This is an important environmental challenge, and I’m proud to be part of research that helps improve our understanding of it.”

EPA Victoria Deputy Chief Environmental Scientist Caroline Martino said the regulator was proud to be part of the study.

“This study provides valuable insights into how PFAS moves through the environment,” Ms Martino said.

“Robust, peer-reviewed evidence is essential for effective regulation, risk assessment and management."

“Science is at the heart of everything EPA does, and we’re always pleased to work with great institutions like RMIT.” 

“Forever chemicals” is a misnomer  

“PFAS are often called ‘forever chemicals’, but that term can be misleading because it suggests they never break down, which isn't actually the case,” Jones said.

“A more accurate description is that they are highly persistent, or ‘lingering’, chemicals that can remain in the environment for a long time, which is why understanding their behaviour is so important.”

The paper, 'Concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in the rainwater of South-Eastern Australia', is published in the international journal Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology (DOI: 10.1093/etojnl/vgag204).

Media assets

Video explainer featuring Professor Oliver Jones
https://youtu.be/w5YIoafsqkA

Photos and broadcast quality video
https://spaces.hightail.com/space/HLYzIJoIgj

---

DOI

10.1093/etojnl/vgag204 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in the rainwater of South-Eastern Australia

  

The kissing bug that crossed the Atlantic

New study details the finding of the first known live kissing bug in Europe

University of Delaware

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

On an August morning last year, an American couple soon to embark on a European river cruise awoke in a luxury hotel in Lisbon.

Staring back at them from the headboard was a bloodsucking insect. 

They’d later learn the culprit was an adult female kissing bug.

More than half of all kissing bugs travel with an accomplice — a parasite called Trypanosoma cruzi. The parasite causes Chagas disease which can lead to serious heart problems. T. cruzi is transmitted through the insect’s feces rather than its bite.

But how did this particular species of kissing bug, native to the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico for its dry, desert-like climate, get to Portugal?

That question became the centerpiece of a scientific investigation led by UD assistant professor and medical entomologist Jennifer K. Peterson and her team of Blue Hen sleuths. Students in her Fall 2025 Medical Entomology (ENWC 410/610) class donned their detective hats and helped investigate what appears to be the first documented live kissing bug in Europe. Their findings were recently published in the journal Parasites and Vectors.

A bug’s life 

“When they first contacted me, I was super skeptical,” Peterson said. “My first response was, ‘Is there a Lisbon, Delaware? Because they can’t be referring to Lisbon, Portugal.’” 

Peterson and colleagues identified the insect as a species of kissing bug, Hospesneotomae protracta, native to the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. 

The insect traveled a 5,000-mile transatlantic journey. Could it have stowed away aboard a cargo shipment? Did it hitchhike in somebody’s suitcase and take an international flight? 

No one knows how it got to Portugal. 

Medical entomologists in training

Rather than simply presenting the case to her students, Peterson turned it into a collaborative class research project. 

She gave her class the basic facts and challenged students to investigate the insect’s biology, identify other hitchhiking cases and explore how the kissing bug might have reached Europe. She then combined the strongest elements of their work into one research paper. 

“Writing, peer review and publishing are such a huge part of being a researcher,” Peterson said. “As university academics, it’s our bread and butter. I wanted students to experience that process from beginning to end.” 

Increasing awareness

The Lisbon case illustrates how easily this insect (and others) can travel across the globe. 

Peterson said when any insect that can transmit pathogens or parasites journeys outside of its usual range, there can be medical consequences. Especially if the insect is able to lay eggs and start an infestation. In the case of the adventurous kissing bug, it was not carrying the parasite that causes Chagas disease.

The next one might. 

“This particular kissing bug was not infected with T. cruzi, but others could be,” Peterson said. “What we don’t want is to see kissing bug populations in places where they aren’t. Because once that takes off, they’re really tough to eliminate.”

She hopes customs officials, border patrol agents and others who monitor for agricultural pests will become more familiar with kissing bugs.

To speak with Peterson more about this extraordinary discovery, email mediarelations@udel.edu. 

---

Journal

Parasites & Vectors

DOI

10.1186/s13071-026-07464-4 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Live triatomine bug, vector of Trypanosoma cruzi , found engorged in Lisbon hotel room: A first for Portugal and for Europe

Taylor Swift becomes bugs

Newly discovered herbivorous insects named in tribute

University of California - Riverside

LinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

Swiftiephylus amator

view more 

Credit: Sarah Schroeder/UCR

She’s a Grammy Award-winning international superstar, and now, Taylor Swift is also a genus of plant-feeding insects from Australia that were previously unknown to science.

Sarah Schroeder, a UC Riverside doctoral student in entomology, hopes that by naming these insects after the singer, both the insects, specifically, as well as the concept of insect conservation more generally will shine with a little of her reflected light.

“It felt authentic to me as a lifelong Swiftie to honor Taylor in this way, as well as bring attention to the diversity of insects that has yet to be discovered,” Schroeder said.

A paper describing 12 new species of insects was published today in the journal Insect Systematics and Evolution. Of these, one genus has been named Swiftiephylus, and it contains four species whose names are inspired by the artist herself as well as several of her albums: Swiftiephylus taylorae, Swiftiephylus amator, Swiftiephylus intrepidus, and Swiftiephylus poetorum.

The names are Latin versions of Taylor, lover, fearless, and poets, respectively. The genus name combines “Swiftie,” the term for Swift’s fans, with Phylus, a name commonly used for this group of insects.

These new insects are not known to be pests to either humans or animals. They are part of a family called Miridae, the largest family of true bugs, with more than 11,000 described species worldwide. The family includes plant feeders and predators, as well as insects with highly specialized lifestyles.

The newly described species are closely associated with Australian she-oaks, trees and shrubs adapted to environments ranging from tropical forests to coastal dunes and extreme heat. Many plant bugs spend their entire lives on a particular host plant, from hatching through adulthood and egg laying. Though they feed off the trees, they aren’t known to cause them harm.

One of the reasons Schroeder dedicated the names of the new insects to Swift also has to do with their appearance. She believes their coloring helps them camouflage among she-oak flowers, which feature spindly red to orange structures. The paper notes that similar cream-and-red coloration has been observed in distantly related bugs living on the same plants, suggesting camouflage may have evolved independently multiple times.

“Taylor Swift’s iconic look is her blonde hair and red lips. These insects are pale yellow with accents of red throughout,” Schroeder said. “In the paper I refer to them as blonde.”

Though the insects are new to science, the specimens themselves have been waiting decades to be formally described.

They were among the plant bug specimens collected between 1995 and 2004 during a large biodiversity effort involving researchers from the American Museum of Natural History and Australian collaborators. The collecting effort yielded more than 50,000 specimens, many of which have required years of taxonomic work to sort, study, and describe.

A key member of that effort was Schroeder’s advisor and paper co-author, Christiane Weirauch, a UCR entomology professor who participated in the project as a postdoctoral researcher before coming to Riverside. Years later, knowing that there were still many undescribed insects from those Australian collection efforts, Weirauch suggested Schroeder investigate them as part of her dissertation.

Schroeder and Weirauch ultimately examined 593 specimens borrowed from the American Museum of Natural History and Australian Museum. The insects fall into distinct evolutionary groups despite sharing host plants and similar coloration.

For Schroeder, their long journey from Australian she-oaks to museum drawers and finally into the scientific record illustrates why the science of identifying and naming organisms, called taxonomy, remains essential.

Despite centuries of biological exploration, there may be as many as 30 million insects that remain undocumented.

Schroeder studies the evolution of this particular subfamily of plant bugs using both traditional taxonomy and genomic data. By reconstructing their evolutionary relationships, she hopes to better understand how the insects spread around the world, developed specialized relationships with plants, and diversified over time. Ultimately, she wants to connect that knowledge to conservation.

Naming the insects for an artist whose music has accompanied Schroeder from childhood through graduate school offered an opportunity to connect that scientific mission with something deeply personal.

Though it has been done for centuries, there is some controversy in entomological circles around naming parts of the natural world for humans. However, Schroeder felt strongly that the practice of doing so can be used in a positive way.

“Taxonomy is the cornerstone of conservation,” Schroeder said. “If we don’t describe species, we don’t know they exist and can’t conserve them. Honoring Taylor through naming these species after her is a way to honor conservation science and bring attention to all the unknown diversity.”

---

Journal

Insect Systematics & Evolution

DOI

10.1163/1876312x-bja10090 

Article Title

New genera and species of Australian sheoak-associated plant bugs (Hemiptera: Miridae: Phylinae: Pilophorini and Semiini)

Article Publication Date

9-Sep-2026