The End of the Retail Recession Is Good — or Maybe Bad

Monday, 22 August, 2022 - 

Conor Sen

It has been a messy year for macroeconomic analysis. The wild fluctuations in inflation, energy prices, the stock market and consumer behavior have all made mistakes by companies and investors alike. Retailers have been caught in these shifts, as evidenced by both Walmart and Target’s mishandling of consumer behavior that began in March. Stores had a lot of goods that consumers didn’t buy because they shifted their spending to travel and leisure, or were squeezed by inflation.

Fixing these mistakes has caused trouble for retailers. But this week both Walmart and Target said on earnings calls that they are almost back where they want to be. This is important because it means retail may again shift to being the driver of growth, putting pressure on the economy. And it raises the question of whether the economic weakness will last longer.

There are many ways to show how retail has slowed growth. Changes in private inventory reduced real GDP growth by 2% in the second quarter as companies began to liquidate their excess inventories. In 2021, retailers added 400,000 jobs as they resumed post-pandemic job cuts, but since February this year, they have cut 20,000 more.

This change has also been reflected in the freight business. The trucking market fell this spring once retailers changed their behavior, and sea freight rates fell as demand changed and the supply chain normalized.

When you’re in a store that becomes heavily stocked, simply selling off the inventory often isn’t enough—you cancel orders too, and that adds to the negative economic impact. Walmart said it canceled “billions of dollars to help align inventory levels with expected demand,” and Target said its second-quarter inventory actions included “more than $1.5 billion across our discretionary categories.” including the removal of declining receipts.

But the thing about inventory cycles is that changes, while sometimes abrupt, tend to be minimal. Addressing the excess inventory, John Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer, said, “At the end of Q1, we said it would take a few quarters to work out. I’ll just reiterate that it’s true. Target, for its part, said it was more or less where it wanted to be, which is why it anticipates a favorable profit margin for the rest of the year.

All this should change the mindset of those who are constantly focusing on slow economic growth. Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg News noted this week that the economy is reeling from some retail shocks from last spring, with trucking-company stock prices rallying.

Walmart and Target going back to the expanded list in the next quarter or two could point to faster economic growth for the rest of this year. Surveys of companies may soon pick up new orders again. Freights falling for months and prices of goods may rise again.

This will be mixed news for the Federal Reserve as it considers optimal monetary policy. On the one hand, it will show that the risks of recession are indeed very high, with retail being the first industry to complete its post-pandemic slowdown and return to growth. On the other hand, accelerating growth at a time when the Fed is looking to slow it down could signal an alarming rise in inflation.

But it appears that we are moving into the next few months. The retail slump of the last five months is coming to an end, and now there will be a new phase of growth. The question is what this will mean for inflation, and in turn, how the Fed will handle it.

Extinction: 5 species we recently lost

The world is seeing a rapid acceleration in species extinction rates. Currently, more than 1 million species are at risk of dying out. Here are a few animals we've already lost ― and not too long ago.



Bramble Cay Melomys

In 2019, the Bramble Cay melomys was officially declared extinct due to human-related climate change. Warming ocean temperatures and higher seas washed away the vegetation the animals used for shelter and food. Bramble Cay melomys lived on Australia's isolated Bramble Cay island on the surface of the Great Barrier Reef's northern tip.

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Pak's ex-PM Imran Khan gets protective bail in terrorism case

Khan, 69, was booked on Sunday under the Anti-Terrorism Act on Sunday

By PTI Updated: August 22, 2022



Pakistan's ousted prime minister Imran Khan was granted protective bail till Thursday by the Islamabad High Court in a terrorism case registered against him for threatening police, judiciary and other state institutions during a rally here on Saturday.

Khan, 69, was booked on Sunday under the Anti-Terrorism Act on Sunday.

Earlier in the day, Khan, chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, moved the court seeking pre-arrest bail in the case.

The petition filed by his lawyers Babar Awan and Faisal Chaudhry stated that Khan was a target of the ruling PDM (Pakistan Democratic Movement) for his fearless criticism, and extremely bold and blunt stance against corruption and corrupt politicians, the Dawn newspaper reported.

And to achieve this malicious agenda, acting in a most unfortunate and clumsy manner, a false and frivolous complaint has been registered against him by the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) police at the behest of the incumbent government, it added.

The plea further alleged that the government had decided to cross all limits to arrest Imran under false accusations and was hell-bent to sort out the petitioner and his party at all costs.

Justice Mohsin Akhtar Kayani took up the petition and asked what objections were raised on it.

Awan informed the judge that an objection pertaining to approaching the relevant forum was raised on the plea. At that, Justice Kayani said an objection pertaining to biometrics was also raised.

During the proceedings, Awan claimed that Imran's residence has been surrounded and... he cannot even approach the relevant court.

Underlining that Khan had no past criminal record, the bail application stated that the former premier was ready for any investigation involved in the case, The Express Tribune newspaper reported.

Quoting sources at the registrar's office, the report said that the office had raised three objections to Khan's application for protective bail -- first, he did not get his biometrics done; second he came to the high court instead of approaching an anti-terrorism court; and third, a certified copy of the terrorism case against him was not provided to the office.

The case against Khan was registered at the Margalla Police Station of Islamabad.

The FIR said that at the PTI's rally at F-9 park on Saturday, Khan had "terrorised and threatened top police officials and a respected female additional sessions judge" with the aim to stop them from performing their functions and abstain from pursuing any action against any individual related to his party.

It says that Khan's speech had spread fear and uncertainty among the police, judges and the nation.

In his address, Khan had threatened to file cases against top police officials, a woman magistrate, Election Commission of Pakistan and political opponents over the treatment meted out to his aide Shahbaz Gill, who was arrested last week on charges of sedition.

He had also taken exception to Additional District and Sessions Judge Zeba Chaudhry, who had approved Gill's two-day physical remand at the request of the capital police, and said she should prepare herself as action would be taken against her".

Khan's pre-arrest bail application stated that the government, in an illegal effort to settle a political score, has decided to illegally and unlawfully victimise the petitioner.

Noting that the government had registered 17 FIRs against Khan, it said the most recent FIR against was politically motivated, in which the former prime minister had been falsely involved with mala fide intention and ulterior motives to humiliate him.

Moreover, the plea highlighted that the FIR was registered after an unexplained inordinate delay of 24 hours. The contents of the FIR reflect that the alleged offence is not made out. The case in hand is of further inquiry.

The plea contended the case was based on surmises and conjectures and that no evidence was available on record against Imran in connection with the case.

It also contended that there was no direct or indirect evidence available on record against Imran in the case, which created serious doubt in the prosecution story. 

Political tension soars in Pakistan as ex-Premier Khan’s supporters dig in to prevent his arrest

Imran Khan granted pre-arrest bail till Aug. 25, ordered to appear before anti-terrorism court in 3 days
Islam Uddin |22.08.2022


ISLAMABAD

Political tension in Pakistan deepened after authorities registered a case against former Prime Minister Imran Khan under the Anti-Terrorism Act and hundreds of his supporters reached his residence in Bani Gala near the capital Islamabad to show solidarity.

Meanwhile, Islamabad High Court granted pre-arrest bail to Khan till Aug. 25 and ordered him to appear before the anti-terrorism court in three days.

The situation remained tense in the capital after Khan's close aid and former Federal Minister Murad Saeed tweeted last night that the government has issued orders to arrest the former premier, urging the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s supporters to come out of their homes to protect Khan.

Soon after his tweet, hundreds of people along with their families gathered outside Imran Khan’s residence and blocked all entrances.

“Imran Khan is a red line for us,” Saeed said.

According to Islamabad police, they registered a case against Khan for "terrorizing and threatening" police officers and a female judge at a rally in Islamabad on Saturday.

The cricketer-turned-politician had said he will take action against the officials for the alleged torturing of Shahbaz Gill, his close aide and chief of staff, in police custody. Gill faces sedition charges for remarks that allegedly aimed to incite mutiny within Pakistan’s powerful military.

Former Federal Minister Ali Amin Gandapur also warned that they will take over Islamabad if the police arrested Khan.

“If Imran Khan is arrested by the imported govt we will take over Islamabad and my message to police is that don’t be part of this political war anymore,” he tweeted.

Earlier on Sunday, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said the government was mulling over the ex-premier's arrest.

Khan has staged a series of popular anti-government protests since being ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in April.

As he addressed a rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi on Sunday, many users in Pakistan complained of disruption in YouTube service, where the speech was being live-streamed.

NetBlocks, an organization that tracks internet outages, confirmed the development.

Khan called the "temporary blocking" a “new low” and “gross violation of freedom of speech.”

SOS! Scientists sound climate alarm with exclamation mark

by Alister Doyle | @alisterdoyle | Thomson Reuters Foundation
Monday, 22 August 2022

Global warming is having a new side-effect: forcing scientific publication to bend their punctuation rules

Common in social media and activism, "!" enters formal writing


Leading scientific journals strictly limit exclamation marks


UN Climate Change uses "!" emoji to warn of Europe's heatwaves

By Alister Doyle

OSLO, Aug 22 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Most scientific studies - even those with remarkable findings - have long had their wider appeal dimmed by unremarkable titles.

But as researchers - who mostly err on the side of cautious understatement - grow more alarmed by worsening climate change impacts including heatwaves, droughts and melting ice, an unfamiliar piece of punctuation is creeping into their work: the exclamation mark.

"SOS! Summer of smoke" reads the title of one study referenced in a flagship series of reports by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released this year. Another trumpets, "Too hot to help!".

Climate protesters have long deployed the punctuation on banners urging "Climate Action Now!" or warning "There is no planet B!".

Activists hope that exclamation marks, by stirring visceral feelings to match scientific findings about the deteriorating state of the planet, can spur greater efforts to cut the greenhouse gas emissions heating it up.

"It's about emotions – this affects all our lives," said Nuala Gathercole Lam, a spokeswoman for the Extinction Rebellion (XR) activist group in Britain. But, she warned, "exclamation marks can seem like over-labouring" an already-clear message.

XR's global website starts with the sober sentence: "This is an emergency", followed by a lower section urging "Act Now!".

Some researchers say the appearance of the exclamation point in scientific work reflects growing concern about rising temperatures among the wider public.

Adeniyi Asiyanbi, an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia, wrote a report cited by the IPCC entitled: "'I don't get this climate stuff!' Making sense of climate change among the corporate middle class in Lagos".

He drew the emphatic punctuation from a Nigerian businessman he spoke to, who expressed frustration that climate solutions are hard to understand.

"I won’t be surprised if more exclamation is being used ... deliberately to create a sense of urgency and a sense of fear too," said Asiyanbi.

"I personally have my reservations about (doing it) - but that's what I see around increasingly now," he added in emailed comments.
SOBER SCIENCE

The IPCC's February report on adapting to the impacts of climate change refers to more than a dozen studies that include an exclamation mark in the headline, up from just four in the previous – albeit shorter - IPCC science assessment in 2014.

The IPCC, whose findings must be approved by all governments ranging from oil-producing OPEC nations to climate-vulnerable Pacific island states, has no specific guidance to authors on using exclamation marks, said spokesman Andrej Mahecic.

As a rule, IPCC reports avoid using "!", except when citing titles of other scientific studies.

But a single exclamation mark slipped into Chapter 2 of the February IPCC report in the sentence: "Hotter temperatures also increase mosquito bite rate, parasite development, and viral replication!".

Editors spotted the rogue "!" and it will be deleted in the final version, said Camille Parmesan, a coordinating lead author of the chapter who is affiliated with France’s National Centre for Scientific Research, the University of Plymouth and the University of Texas at Austin.

"No, generally exclamation marks are not used in IPCC (!!!!!)," she wrote in an email interview.

There is also some unease over the "!" creeping into scientific papers, with many journals strictly limiting its use, fearing it comes across as self-defeating shrieking.

The style guide for the respected journal Science says: "The exclamation point is rarely justified in scientific writing except as a factorial symbol in mathematics."

"Science may allow an exclamation point as part of a direct quotation, but we don’t use exclamation points for emphasis," added Meagan Phelan, who leads the magazine's media relations.

The Nature scientific journals are also restrictive.

"Our general guidance is to avoid exclamation marks," said Lisa Boucher, press manager for publisher Springer Nature.
TREND-SETTING TRUMP

By contrast, the attention-grabbing punctuation abounds in social media posts, as users express emotion from horror to enthusiasm.

An unlikely role model for climate scientists, former U.S. President Donald Trump sprinkled his tweets with "!"s before he was suspended from the Twitter platform in 2021.

During a cold spell in January 2019, he asked: "What the hell is going on with Global Warming? Please come back fast, we need you!"

Nowadays, even traditionally more cautious tweeters are starting to adopt the "!" to get their point across.

With the severe summer heatwaves besetting Europe, UN Climate Change in July included a yellow warning sign emoji, containing an exclamation mark, in a tweet saying that rising temperatures increased the risks of death from heat stress.

"We are ramping up the rhetoric a bit because the situation is increasingly dramatic. Exclamation marks are increasingly appropriate," said John Hay, head of content at UN Climate Change, adding that its Twitter account rarely uses "!".

Liuba Belkin, an associate professor at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania who studies social psychology, wrote an article referenced in the 2022 IPCC report about how employees in shops in Eastern Europe are less likely to help clients in energy-draining heatwaves.

Her study, "Too hot to help! Exploring the impact of ambient temperature on helping", was published in the European Journal of Social Psychology.

"I try to use meta-communication (exclamation points, smiley faces, etc.) as much as possible to enrich and more accurately convey the intended message," she said by email.

Still, many are in two minds about liberally sprinkling writing with "!".

Danny Rubin, a U.S. author of books on business writing, said exclamation points are over-used, weakening their value, and are rarely justified to convey "excitement or urgency".

"As in all things, moderation is key," he added.Related stories:

'Ridiculous' length? How to make IPCC climate science reports an easier read

Removing carbon from air vital to reach climate goals, IPCC says

Dead or alive? COP26 climate talks strive to save 1.5C warming goal

(Reporting by Alister Doyle; editing by Laurie Goering and Megan Rowling. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters. Visit http://news.trust.org/climate)

Peru’s Castillo says they want to “tie up” his family to “break” him


ByJuan Martinez
August 22, 2022

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo said Sunday that prosecutors are taking steps to “tie up” his family, including his wife Lilia Paredes, over alleged corruption charges he adamantly denies.

Speaking at a political rally in the town of Andahuaylas, in the southern department of Apurímac, the president said they want to “break” him, but his opponents do not know that he and his family come “from hardship, from below, from suffering.”

“I know they are going to take my wife, they want to put her in chains, and they want to put the rest of my family in chains,” said the head of state, whose sister-in-law, Yenifer Paredes, is in custody, waiting for the judiciary to decide whether to extend her pretrial detention.

Pedro Castillo’s wife, Lilia Paredes. (Photo internet reproduction)

Castillo promised that in the face of this situation, which has plunged his government into a constant political crisis in recent months, he would “resist” until the people asked him to do so and that they would not “break” him.

At the same time, he pointed out that some political figures spend their time “claiming they belong to the people” and who enrich themselves unlawfully, which is why he asked for help to “identify and punish them.”

“We have not given them space and support to enter a ministry in the name of Pedro Castillo to make a profit for their own pockets,” said the Peruvian president.

The investigation launched by Peruvian prosecutor Patricia Benavides against Castillo on various charges, which include accusations of criminal association, has plunged Peru into a political crisis.

His entourage is also affected by the new corruption allegations, including his wife, Lilia Paredes, and sister-in-law, Yenifer Paredes. They grew up as the daughter of the presidential couple and turned herself in to prosecutors on Aug. 10 as part of the investigation against him.

According to prosecutors, the first lady, Lilia Paredes, allegedly coordinated a criminal network “with the knowledge and permission of her husband,” Pedro Castillo, to direct public works through the Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation.

Paredes went to the prosecutor’s office on July 8 to testify as a witness in the corruption case at the Housing Ministry that initially implicated her sister.

Castillo said last Friday that his wife would respond appropriately to the investigation and that she was “ready to hand over her passport to prove that she will not leave the country at any time.”

“Surely they want to file a motion to prevent my wife from leaving the country?” the president asked, guaranteeing that she would “submit” to justice to “prove her innocence.”

Extremism expert: How the far right is winning the 'information war'
Chauncey Devega, Salon
August 22, 2022




Proud Boys // Anthony Crider, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons


The world is experiencing multiple crises all at once. Russia's war in Ukraine is the first such large-scale conventional conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. China's power and reach are increasing, not just in the Pacific but around the world. The United States is reorienting its military, diplomatic and economic resources in response to China's rising superpower status. Some type of clash seems inevitable.

The COVID pandemic has receded somewhat in the U.S., although hundreds of people continue to die every day. The pandemic continues to cause death and misery around the world, with an estimated death toll of 6.5 million and an incalculable amount of personal, societal and economic suffering.

Extreme wealth and income inequality grows largely unabated. Many of the world's richest people have exploited this period of crisis and challenge to expand their power rather than to improve the human condition. Global democracy is in retreat around the world as fascist, authoritarian and other illiberal forces, operating under the banner of "populism," continue to expand their power and influence.

Here in the U.S., Donald Trump's political cult and a Republican Party dominated by fascists are attempting to end multiracial democracy. This is a revolutionary struggle whose goal is to create a new American society, that in practical terms will be an apartheid Christian fascist plutocracy ruled without challenge or accountability by a small number of rich white men. As seen on Jan. 6, 2021, and throughout the Age of Trump, right-wing political violence, including acts of terrorism, is now integral to the neofascist campaign against democracy.

The existential danger of global climate disaster looms over all the world's crises and challenges. Humanity has faced many great challenges before. But the world is now hyperconnected through digital media and other technologies with such speed and immediacy that our ability to properly process and understand these challenges has been greatly impaired.

In an effort to make sense of these many overlapping and simultaneous problems, I recently spoke with Stephanie Foggett, who is director of global communications at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence and security consulting firm, and a research fellow at the Soufan Center, its affiliated independent nonprofit. In that role, Foggett specializes in monitoring white supremacist, neo-Nazi and other right-wing extremist groups.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Foggett shares her views on how "malign actors" are using this moment of global disruption to expand their power by undermining liberalism and Western-style democracy, both internationally and in the United States. She argues that finding shared solutions to these many challenges has been made exceptionally difficult because truth and reality itself have been debased and rejected by the global right.

She highlights how the global far-right and their allies have used the internet and conservative media (especially Fox News), along with the Republican Party and its agents, to mainstream and weaponize the feelings of social alienation, disconnection and victimization felt by many white Americans as a way of destabilizing the country's democracy and society.

Foggett details how some of the most dangerous elements of the far-right view conspiracy cults and online communities like QAnon as a conduit for recruitment, and as a means of sowing chaos and disorder. Toward the end of this conversation, Foggett warns that American democracy and society face an existential threat from the global right in a climate where political violence has been increasingly normalized.

Given everything that is happening in the world right now, with these multiple overlapping crises, how are you making sense of it all?

There is so much going on, which makes it hard to focus on any one thing. In my space, Russia's invasion of Ukraine put the return of conventional warfare front and center. Military conflict between states is now a reality. But that conventional war does not detract from the importance of monitoring non-state actors such as hate groups and other far-right extremists that we have been seeing in the online space, among others.

How does it feel to see some of your predictions come true?

It is a difficult balance between reaction and reflection. There are things happening that need to be responded to immediately, but those events aren't happening in a vacuum. This means reflecting on why they are happening, what they mean and how experts from other fields are making sense of this all.


There is a cluster of events at the international level that are realigning global power. Where is power being lost? Where is power being gained? What does this look like going forward? These changes can create anxiety across the board because this type of flux and disruption can create opportunity for dangerous actors. They will use moments such as this to reassert themselves.

What are some of the larger concerns and events that you're tracking?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine certainly overshadows things. Specifically, what does that mean for our understanding of conventional military and military threats? What does that mean for Europe and North America? What does it mean in terms of our conversations about China? Of course, there are regional powers and conflicts that need to be included in these conversations as well.


There are the non-state actors as well, ranging from terrorist organizations to militia groups and some of these online hate movements. How are they reacting to this dynamic situation? In all, what do these changes mean for our way of life in the West and for peace and prosperity more generally around the world?

How do you assess the public mood?

Every issue is being muddled with disinformation and half-truths and narratives that paralyze action by creating confusion and doubt. This makes it hard to chart a shared path forward.


"Confusion" is the word that stands out for me. It's very difficult to even have discussions about politics and current events when there is less of a shared understanding of reality, the truth and facts. Every issue is being muddled with disinformation and half-truths and narratives that paralyze action by just creating confusion and doubt. This makes it hard to chart a shared path forward to explain to the public what is happening.

So where people may have thought, "This is the clear way forward," or "Of course this is an issue," we're seeing so many things and so many ideas going into the mix that it gets harder to explain. Many people look at the world today and are very confused — and that outcome is intentional.

There's an information war going on. Malign actors are sowing confusion and doubt and that serves to exacerbate fault lines in society. This confusion and doubt impact national fault lines as well as the global order. These dynamics are ultimately impacting what is happening within a given society around political and social identities — such as gender, race, ethnicity, religion and the like — and interstate relationships and conflict as well.


Who are these "malign actors," specifically?

At the international level, we're talking about states who threaten security and our way of life. Russia is an obvious example right now. China is of concern as well. Malign actors ultimately are those who aren't playing by the rules that have been set out in the post-Cold War era, which have tried to establish better mechanisms for how we discuss and establish peace at the international level. On a basic level, malign actors are disruptive forces for norms and rules, which in turn makes the international environment less safe.

What about right-wing extremist groups?


They're an enormous concern. After 9/11, the global counterterrorism architecture was almost singularly focused on the threat from Salafi jihadist terrorism. Many people have spent 20 years only thinking or being told that terrorism has one face or one mission, and that's very much not the case.

Far-right and white supremacist extremism is not new. It's been around for a very long time. Since the rioting and mayhem in Charlottesville in 2017, these far-right and white supremacist organizations and individuals are back on the radar, so to speak, for security experts. They are behaving differently than they used to, and need to be tracked much more carefully and with more resources.

What is their understanding of the world? Do they believe that they're winning or losing?


The far-right is not a monolith. There is diversity within the movement. That said, I do think there are important similarities. At their core, the far-right, white supremacists and other such organizations and individuals want to create a white "ethnostate." They want to destroy liberal democratic society. They do not view Western democracy and pluralistic, liberal societies as legitimate. The far-right propagates a political worldview that white people are under attack by some type of out-group, be it immigrants or non-whites. The safety of white people will only be secured under these white ethnostates.

To that point, the white supremacists and other far-right extremists also believe that social inequality is important, and they want to uphold it to serve their racial group and power interests. Conspiracy theories such as the "great replacement" are central to their worldview. The victimhood narrative fosters a sense of urgency and legitimates violence.

The far-right is also obsessed with civilizational collapse, and false claims that security and stability emanate from white people, and specifically from white Christian "civilization." In their fantasies, people like them built the world and made the world. Civilization as we know it can't exist outside of white people like them. Of course, there is the white supremacy, but also an assertion of "traditional" gender roles are a glue that holds so much of the white supremacist and other far-right extremist cosmology together.


That sounds like what Fox News broadcasts on a daily basis.

That is true. That echo chamber has many elements to it. Fox News and other parts of the right-wing media are laundering violent extremist content and ideas and projecting them into the mainstream. This is happening across media, politics and the business and tech space. Influential actors have wittingly or unwittingly spread these narratives across the media and information space. At present, there is a dwindling gap between the right-wing extremist fringe and the mainstream. That's incredibly concerning.

There is a dwindling gap between the right-wing extremist fringe and the mainstream — and much of the far-right online ecosystem has been interspersed with entertainment and memes.

Moreover, much of the white supremacy and far-right online information ecosystem has been interspersed with entertainment and memes. The far-right normalize hate through making it funny, as a way of filtering it to the mainstream. The goal is to normalize hate and far-right extremism by getting more people to look at it their content, engage with it, share it and think, "Oh, it's not a big deal." Infiltrating the online gaming space is integral to their strategy of spreading hate and extremism to a new younger audience.

The far-right and white supremacists have been wanting to shed the skinhead, tattooed-up, jackboot image for some time. They are doing this by giving their message a type of collegial, professional look. Since Charlottesville, they wanted khakis and buttoned shirts, and women in floral dresses, to be the faces and voices of the movement. That is exactly what is happening today.

What do they view as their greatest victory so far? How do they talk, about the world in terms of seeing this happening?

The culmination of going from the Obama administration to the Trump administration and seeing their rhetoric being normalized was one of the great victories for the far-right. With Trump and many Republicans and a larger global right-wing presence, what were once fringe, extremist ideas are now in spaces of power they were denied access to before.

The far-right also feel that they're speaking for more people, under the banner of "populism" and being against the "elites." Right-wing extremists and white supremacists and such elements are applying that model across many issues.

What do we know for example about the "trucker convoys" that we have seen in Canada, the U.S. and elsewhere, and how they fit into the right-wing extremist threat?

From the trucker convoys to the anti-COVID lockdown protests, the far-right and other right-wing extremists will find a way to co-opt those feelings of anger and alienation. That is a standard tactic. The far-right aspire to take that anger and anxiety and then pivot it to white supremacy, anti-government narratives and other extremist ways of thinking.

To that point, there is a huge amount of co-optation of the QAnon movement. The far-right does not have any respect for people who believe in QAnon, but they know they can recruit and manipulate them.

In fact, the leadership and online spaces of the far-right routinely use derogatory language about the people they're trying to recruit. They just view them as a source of grievance that they can pull into their movements for critical mass. Antisemitism is another important vector. That many of these social protest movements include overt antisemitic tropes or coded anti-Jewish undertones means that the far-right will seek out ways to insert their politics where they already see fertile ground.

In these spaces that you monitor, what was the reaction to Jan. 6, 2021, and to Donald Trump more generally?

It was mixed. But overall, Jan. 6 and Trump's presidency emboldened the movement. The far-right saw a critical mass of people who were organized, and who took their struggle to the halls of American democracy and government and were willing to use violence to achieve their goals.

Leadership of the far-right routinely uses derogatory language about the people they're trying to recruit. They just view them as a source of grievance that they can pull into their movements.

What most concerns me is: Are we going to see a repeat of Jan. 6 and other right-wing violence, and conspiracy theories such as the Big Lie and "Stop the Steal" protests and disruptions, every election? Is this going to be something that happens every election cycle? I believe the answer is yes, for the far-right and white supremacists, because they do not believe there is a nonviolent political solution for the concerns and grievances that they have.

What do we know about this "grooming" narrative, which has recently been mainstreamed by Republicans and the right-wing media?

This is a direct page out of the far-right and white supremacy playbook. The far-right have their in-group and they have their out-group, and they project lies and distortions and stereotypes onto the latter in an attempt to present them as some type of extreme criminal deviant threat.

The LGBTQ+ community have, throughout the history of the far-right, been falsely labeled and presented as pedophiles, as groomers. That has always been there. For the far-right, if you can frame an entire section of the population as groomers, then you're inciting violence against them. At present there is a whole political party and media machine, as well as some churches and other right-wing elements with great influence and power, that are doing just that.

If you've got millions and millions of people buying into this here in America and in certain parts of Europe, what does this mean for the safety of the LGBTQ+ community?

How do these right-wing extremists view the "normies," meaning "good white people" who are somewhat sympathetic but need to be "brought into the movement" or have their "eyes opened"?

When you're looking at right-wing groups and parties in Europe and North America, they do believe that there is a future for their movement, and they just need to appeal to the right people to grow it. Bringing so-called normal people into the fold, especially young people, has been a big focus. They're really trying to get boys and young men as they transition to adulthood by playing on insecurities about masculinity. Others, like violent far-right accelerationists, just want to burn society down and are less concerned with doing that type of mainstreaming and political work.

What do we know about the "black flag" and "dark MAGA" movements, and their threats of violence, terrorism and civil war?

Its adherents believe that MAGA had its chance, but they were too soft. They were too forgiving. And that when MAGA does come back, it needs to be dark. MAGA gave too much space to its enemies.

On a basic level, what does the MAGA movement mean for its members and other believers?

MAGA is an enormous political force in this country. There's a huge number of people who feel that they have a grievance. The Make America Great Again movement has been able to tap into a wide range of economic, social and other grievances, almost exclusively among white people.

The far-right sees a lot of their politics reflected in MAGA — but they also see an opportunity to take the MAGA movement and brand and make it even more right-wing and more extremist than it already is. The far-right cloak themselves in the language and imagery of American democracy: patriotism and flags and related symbols and imagery. In reality, there is nothing that the far right and these white supremacists want that has any semblance to democracy and any institutions that protect us today.

What would America be like if the right-ring extremists and white supremacists, or the most die-hard MAGA types more generally, get their way?

It will be an anti-democratic world. This world is one where the "white race" deserves to be at the top. White supremacists believe they were made to be at the top. For the far-right and white supremacists, there are people they should rightfully defend, and everybody else is a threat. America and Europe will be white ethnostates, with white heterosexual males at the top of the social and political order who are protecting white heterosexual females (if they conform) and white children. Anybody who doesn't fit this mold will be subjected to persecution and violence. It's a genocidal political worldview, underpinned by racism, antisemitism, misogyny, homophobia and anti-liberalism.

It is truly tragic to see that there are people in the Republican Party, Trump movement and the larger "mainstream" right who are mainstreaming such vile beliefs and the horrors they want to force on the world.

Erdogan Joins Top Turkey Officials Seeing Better Syria Ties

Beril Akman
Mon, August 22, 2022



(Bloomberg) --

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become the latest top Turkish official to call for better ties with Syria, as Ankara appears to shift its stance on the government of Bashar al-Assad.

“We need to achieve forward steps with Syria. With these steps we will spoil many games in the region,” Erdogan told reporters in remarks carried by national TV channels over the weekend. “Political dialogue or diplomacy cannot be cut off between states.”

Turkey was a staunch supporter of Syrian rebels during the height of the country’s long war, regularly condemning Assad for the actions of his troops.

With backing from Russia and Iran, though, Assad’s government has regained control of much of Syria. That’s left Turkey to largely focus on Kurdish militants in northern Syria it sees as a threat for their links to the PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy on Turkish soil for decades and is designated a terrorist group by the European Union and US.

Earlier in August, Erdogan traveled to Sochi for talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, apparently seeking his blessing for another cross-border offensive targeting the Kurdish People’s Defense Units, or YPG. After the meeting, Erdogan told reporters that Putin had urged Ankara to solve its problems with Damascus.

On Friday, the Turkish leader suggested he wasn’t backing down from his willingness to again strike across the frontier. “We might come suddenly one night,” Erdogan said, a phrase he uses when referring to imminent military operations.

Oytun Orhan, a Syria specialist at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said any imminent breakthrough in ties with Assad was unlikely as the two administrations have competing security priorities.

Damascus wants Turkey to end support for its remaining Syrian opponents, Orhan said. Turkey, meanwhile, is determined to dismantle Kurdish self-governance in Syria, and in the past has mobilized Syrian rebels to fight against the YPG.

“My expectation is for intelligence contacts to become more frequent and for talks to eventually evolve to the political dimension,” Orhan said in an interview.

The plight of Turkey’s economy could be one factor spurring a rethink in Ankara. A cost-of-living crisis is stalking voters less than a year before elections, threatening to strip away support from Erdogan. Some Turks resent the presence of the 3.7 million Syrian migrants living in Turkey, and Erdogan’s challengers are seeking to capitalize on anti-migrant sentiment, pledging to deport Syrians if they are elected to power.

Erdogan has announced plans to relocate at least one million refugees to communities being constructed by Turkey in a strip of land it controls in northern Syria.

Anger Over 3.7 Million Refugees Is Piling Pressure on Erdogan

“Erdogan is cornered at home. Elections are approaching. Because the economy is doing terribly, there is increased opposition to migrants,” said Gonul Tol, director of Turkey program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C.

Syria also became a pariah in the Arab world after Assad’s crackdown on an uprising in 2011 triggered the war. But in March, Assad traveled to the United Arab Emirates for talks as Gulf Arab governments increasingly concluded they’d rather bring Syria back into the fold than abandon it to rival Iran.

Turkey, which has embarked on wide-ranging diplomacy to repair tattered regional ties in recent months, could be following suit. Some of Erdogan’s top aides have recently called for direct engagement with Assad’s government.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu sparked controversy earlier this month when he disclosed publicly that he spoke to his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mekdad, at an international meeting last year.

Last week, he said “reconciliation” between the Syrian government and opposition was necessary for peace. Erdogan’s key domestic ally, nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, echoed Cavusoglu’s remarks; and deputy chairman of the governing AK Party Hayati Yazici said Turkey could begin “direct” and “higher level” talks with Syria.

Putin’s influence may prove pivotal. Turkey and Russia have been at odds in Syria, but Erdogan and the Russian leader have worked closely elsewhere. The Turkish president mediated a deal to resume grain shipments from Ukraine’s blockaded Black Sea ports.

Turkey refrained from joining Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Russia’s a major supplier of energy and tourists for Turkey.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season broke an 1893 record — 4 simultaneous storms

Randi Mann
Digital Reporter

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Monday, August 22nd 2022

On this day in weather history, four hurricanes were active in the Atlatic.

This Day In Weather History is a daily podcast by The Weather Network that features stories about people, communities, and events and how weather impacted them.

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The 1893 Atlantic hurricane season was moderately active, with a total of 12 tropical storms forming. In the United States, it was the deadliest season to date, with over 2,000 deaths.

On Tuesday, Aug. 22, 1893, there were four hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, which didn't happen again until 1998.

The first of these hurricanes formed on Aug. 13. near the Lesser Antilles. It strengthened to hurricane status over the Leeward Islands. On Aug. 16, it approached Puerto Rico, making landfall at Patillas. It travelled across the island, producing heavy rains and damaging crops, including coffee.

The second hurricane of the group formed on Aug. 15 in central tropical Atlantic. It reached Category 3 strength but weakened as it moved toward New York City. However, the storm maintained hurricane status as it hit the city, with winds up to 137 km/h. It's one of two hurricanes in the 19th century to hit New York City (the other one is the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane).

 *"This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 1893 Atlantic hurricane season. The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds as classified in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (see below), and the shape of the data points represent the type of the storm." Courtesy of Wikipedia*

The third hurricane (fifth overall in the season) formed near Bermuda on Aug. 15. It moved northwestward and strengthened into a Category 2. The hurricane travelled across Sable Island and hit Newfoundland on Aug. 18. with wind speeds of 145 km/h.

The final hurricane formed near Cape Verde on Aug. 15. During its first 11 days of inception, it turned into a Category 3 storm. The hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Ga., killing around 2,000 people. It moved northeastward and dissipated on Aug. 31.

This was the first time that three storms formed on the same day (Aug. 15, 1893). This record was broken during the 2020 hurricane season, when Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta formed on the same day.

To learn more about the 1893 Atlantic hurricane Season, listen to today's episode of "This Day In Weather History."

NATO secretary general to focus on Arctic during Canada visit

"Given the locations, there will be a significant focus on the Arctic and how climate change is affecting security."

By

 Steve Scherer, Reuters, Kanishka Singh, Reuters

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August 22, 2022

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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg attends a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain June 30, 2022. (Susana Vera / Reuters)

OTTAWA—NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Canada next week to focus on Arctic security amid climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office said on Friday.

Stoltenberg will travel to Canada from Aug. 24 to Aug. 26 and will be accompanied by Trudeau during the visit.

On Thursday he will stop in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, a hamlet in the far north and one of the main stops for vessels traversing the Arctic Ocean’s Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On Friday, he will travel to a Canadian jet fighter base in Cold Lake, Alberta, to discuss plans to modernize NORAD, the joint U.S.-Canadian North American defense organization, the statement said.

“Given the locations, there will be a significant focus on the Arctic and how climate change is affecting security,” a government spokesperson said.

Stoltenberg has made trips to Europe’s Arctic this year, mainly to show support for Finland and Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. Nearly 40% of Canada’s land mass is considered Arctic, while Russia stretches over 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, according to the Arctic Council.

In June, Canada said it would invest C$4.9 billion ($3.8 billion) over the next six years to modernize NORAD, which experts say is in dire need of upgrades.

The more-than six-decade-old system detects security threats to North America, and its early-warning radar for the polar region dates back to the late 1980s.

Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch threatened an Aussie news site. It's fighting back

David Folkenflik
August 22, 2022 

Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch, shown above in 2019 in Sun Valley, Idaho, is threatening to sue an Australian news site for defamation over a June 29 column about rhetoric on Fox. In the U.S., Fox News is defending itself against two defamation suits, saying "Freedom of the press is foundational to our democracy and must be protected."
Drew Angerer | Getty Images

Fox Corp CEO and Executive Chairman Lachlan Murdoch — already busy fighting two multi-billion dollar defamation lawsuits aimed at Fox News here in the U.S. — has threatened a news organization in his family's home country of Australia with legal action.

The threat stems from commentaries accusing him of being responsible for rhetoric on the network that helped fuel the Jan. 6, 2021, siege of the U.S. Capitol.

Now the Aussie political news site Crikey has a message: Bring it on.

"Lachlan Murdoch appears desperate to disassociate himself from the actions of Fox in inciting the January 6th insurrection," Crikey's editor-in-chief, Peter Fray tells NPR from Sydney. "And he's taking quite extraordinary steps to shut down public debate in this country."

Fray says his news site was not literally saying Murdoch personally incited people to violence that day. But, Fray says, "the buck has to stop somewhere."

So, in full-page ads set to appear today in The New York Times and the Canberra Times in the Australian capital city, Fray and Eric Beecher, the chairman of Crikey's parent company, Private Media, proclaim they welcomed Murdoch's threat of a lawsuit.

In the written text of their ad, the two men suggested they wanted it to serve as a test of Australian defamation laws, which, they wrote, "are too restrictive."

Fox Corp declined to comment yesterday on the dispute with Crikey.

Murdoch's complaints arose from a June 29 piece driven by revelations about the activities of former President Donald Trump and his allies ahead of the insurrection at the U.S. Congress last year.

Crikey's political editor said Fox was among Trump's top allies, and concluded a column by calling Murdoch and his father Rupert "unindicted co-conspirators" in the siege because of the incendiary rhetoric Fox often aired.

"We at Crikey strongly support freedom of opinion and public interest journalism," Beecher and Fray wrote.

The two men said they decided to publish all the legal demands and accusations against Crikey from Murdoch's attorneys, and the site's replies, "so people can judge your allegations for themselves."

Fox News faces a pair of defamation suits in the U.S.

The flap occurs at the same moment Fox News is publicly invoking free speech ideals as it seeks to defend itself from two multi-billion dollar defamation lawsuits from election technology and voting machine companies in the U.S.

In response to those two lawsuits, Fox News said, "freedom of the press is foundational to our democracy and must be protected."

And the network called the damages sought — more than $4 billion combined — "nothing more than a flagrant attempt to deter our journalists from doing their jobs."

A day after Crikey political editor Bernard Keane's June 29 column alleging a link between Fox's broadcasts and Trump's actions, Lachlan Murdoch's Australian media attorney, John Churchill, sent a note threatening a defamation suit and demanding an apology.

Churchill argued that Crikey had made an "unwarranted attack" in personally connecting Murdoch to the Jan. 6th attacks that was "malicious and aggravates the harm."

Crikey took the post down, saying it was doing so as a courtesy. But no apology was forthcoming, and earlier this month, Crikey re-posted Keane's column.

Its executives told the Sydney Morning Herald that the episode was just one of several moments in which Murdoch had sought to bully the news site.

Former Fox News politics editor Chris Stirewalt is sworn in at a hearing of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on June 13.
Jabin Botsford/Getty Images

Australia remains key to the Murdochs

Australia plays a recurring and central role in the Murdoch family's many dramas, both personal and professional.

Lachlan's father, Rupert Murdoch, was born there and made the foundation of his wealth there from a small newspaper granted to him by his father in Adelaide. Nearly two decades ago, Lachlan moved to Australia, seeking to make his own mark, when he quit his father's Manhattan-based media empire over corporate infighting. Lachlan's wife is Australian. He holds Australian citizenship and considers Australia home.

Though Lachlan returned to the fold, and once more helps to lead the family media empire, he moved with his wife and children back to Sydney during the pandemic. They still live there.

In defending its coverage of unproven allegations of voter fraud involving Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic election technology companies, Fox Corp and Fox News have argued that the network was merely covering newsworthy, if false, claims made by then President Donald Trump and his allies.

Republican and Democratic election officials at the local, state, and federal level have concluded there was no meaningful election fraud in the 2020 presidential race. Judges appointed by Trump were among the dozens who ruled against the Trump campaign in its legal challenges to the presidential election results.

Similarly, the New York City-based general counsel for Fox News, Bernard Gugar, wrote a formal complaint last September against a two-part documentary program Four Corners on the Australian Broadcasting Corp, called "Fox and the Big Lie."

The documentary focused on Fox's coverage following the 2020 elections, which it contended boosted Trump's false claims. But Gugar asserted the documentary was biased and false.

His very first objection: the fact it said it relied on network "insiders." He noted that the six former Fox News staffers interviewed by the ABC included people who left as far back as 2016 and 2017, as well as its former political director, who was let go several months after the election. (Fox sparked Trump's fury when its decision desk was the first to project that he would lose Arizona on Election Night in November 2020. )

According to two people with knowledge of the matter, the complaint was rejected by the internal unit at the ABC that reviews outside objections. Fox subsequently lodged its objections with the Australian Communications and Media Authority, the regulator that oversees broadcasting there. The regulator has not yet acted upon it.

The Crikey column that started the spat

The latest clash between the Murdochs and the Australian press hinges on a June 29th column by Crikey's politics editor, Bernard Keane, inspired by the revelations of the House Select Committee investigating the January 6th insurrection.

Keane made two references to a Murdoch, though it's not clear whether the initial one pointed at Lachlan or Rupert.

The headline of the column, unmistakably a work of political commentary, calls Trump "a confirmed unhinged traitor" and goes on to say "Murdoch is his unindicted co-conspirator."

The column's final line reaches a grand rhetorical crescendo to make a case for the Murdochs' moral culpability: "the Murdochs and their slew of poisonous Fox News commentators are the unindicted co-conspirators of this continuing crisis."

Churchill, the attorney for Fox and Murdoch, argues that connecting the Murdochs to such violent acts is unfair, inaccurate and ultimately defamatory.

Fox's attorneys have taken the first steps toward filing such a lawsuit against Crikey. In Australia, such cases are much easier to win than in the U.S.

"We're unwilling to be bullied by Lachlan Murdoch any more," Crikey's Fray tells NPR. "We thought it was important to make a stand for free speech and for independent journalism — something Lachlan Murdoch, his father Rupert, and his grandfather, too, have stood up for over the years."

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