Resilience Development and Decision Making in Nuclear and Wider Power Generation
Part 2

FEBRUARY 1, 2023
MARIO PIEROBON

Factors such as war, climate change, technology, and public opinion are causing significant disruption and change in power generation. In this second of a two-part story, SCT’s Mario Pierobon identifies solutions for resilience development and possible operational drawbacks.
Solutions

Stout et al. [i] identify that power sector resilience solutions often include a combination of resource or technological diversity, redundancy, decentralization, transparency, collaboration, flexibility, and foresight considerations. “A mix of solutions should be considered because no single intervention will address all potential vulnerabilities,” they state.

According to Gilbert & Bazilian [ii], recent innovations in advanced nuclear designs could make nuclear power a distributed energy solution for the first time. “As a dispatchable and resilient energy source, distributed nuclear could complement and accelerate the ongoing distributed energy revolution,” they say. “Although decarbonization imperatives are recognized, the role of distributed energy in addressing energy poverty and energy resilience is worth considering.”

In a 2018 paper by Juan A Vitali, Joseph G. Lamothe, Charles J. Toomey, Jr., Virgil O. Peoples, and Kerry A. Mccabe entitled ‘Study on the Use of Mobile Nuclear Power Plants for Ground Operations’[iii] it is proposed that, beyond revolutionizing commercial distributed energy, distributed nuclear might be a game changer for military applications. The US Army has investigated the use of mobile reactors to support ground operations, to reduce the risk of casualties from fuel convoys.

The US DOD has signed engineering contracts with mobile reactor vendors, observe Gilbert & Bazilian. “Mobile reactors could also serve as disaster response, with distributed nuclear replacing damaged power plants or bypassing damaged transmission lines,” they say.

Microreactors, or micro-modular reactors (μMRs), are a significant departure from conventional nuclear designs, according to Gilbert & Bazilian. “Derived from reactor designs originally investigated in the 1950s and 1960s, microreactor designs feature innovations inspired by the drawbacks of conventional designs,” they say. “While a conventional reactor is 1 GW-electric or larger and a small modular reactor (SMR) is 50–300 MW-electric, μMRs are usually 10 MW-electric or less. This is equivalent in power output to 1–5 wind turbines or a small solar farm. At the extreme end, the Department of Energy and NASA are developing Kilopower for space exploration, with a size as low as 1 kW electric.”

New fuel types, fission cycles, passive safety features, and other changes could enable ultra-small reactors to improve safety, report Gilbert & Bazilian. “Their small sizes decrease the heat to surface area of the reactor, allowing for passive cooling instead of the complex active cooling required for light-water reactors. By using new fuel forms and requiring vastly smaller amounts of uranium, off-site risks from a microreactor accident are limited. The designs used by small reactors are often termed as featuring inherent or passive safety,” they say.

Operational Drawbacks

For Gilbert & Bazilian, there are also potential operational disadvantages to downsizing nuclear power. The greater ratio of surface area to reactivity and reduced number of neutrons decreasing fuel efficiency means that activated materials may pose a greater issue. “Materials innovation and the use of HALEU could mitigate such challenges. More worryingly, the largest constraint for distributed nuclear remains one of the factors motivating their innovation: economics,” they say.

According to Gilbert & Bazilian, distributed energy addresses some main public policy challenges of the electric industry, as carbon-free sources of energy, they concur to climate mitigation. “If microreactors are to substantially contribute toward bolstering energy resilience and alleviating energy poverty, they have many barriers they must overcome. As with other energy technologies, future projects are expected to drive costs down as innovations and production economies of scale are achieved,” they affirm.

According to the Organisational Capability Working Group in a 2018 document ‘The UK Nuclear Industry Guide To: Organisational Capability and Resilience’ published on behalf of the Nuclear Industry Safety Directors’ Forum [iv], the industry faces key challenges in maintaining organisational capability and resilience. Among the challenges, the critical shortage of individuals with specific skills has driven competition between organisations in their quest to secure the personnel they need. “Nuclear facilities are generally located away from high density population areas so localisation is an issue,” the document says. “Recruitment is often hampered by long lead times due to security vetting. Delivery of goods, works and services may be outsourced to the supply chain so sustaining an effective intelligent customer capability is vital."

Summing Up

While operational drawbacks to downsizing nuclear power need to be considered and the nuclear and power sector has faced various challenges and issue, there are solutions – such as new fuel types, fission cycles, passive safety features, and other changes – that could improve the resilience of the nuclear and power sector.

References

[i] Sherry Stout, Nathan Lee, Sadie Cox, and James Elsworth, Jennifer Leisch, POWER SECTOR RESILIENCE PLANNING GUIDEBOOK - A Self-Guided Reference for Practitioners, 2018. https://www.nrel.gov/resilience-planning-roadmap/.
[ii] Alexander Q. Gilbert and Morgan D. Bazilian, Joule 4, 1839-1851, September 2020 Elsevier Inc.
[iii] Vitali, J.A., Lamothe, J.G., Toomey, C.J., Jr., Peoples, V.O., and Mccabe, K.A. (2018). Study on the Use of Mobile Nuclear Power Plants for Ground Operations (US Army). https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/ 1064604.pdf.
[iv] The Organisational Capability Working Group on behalf of the Nuclear Industry Safety Directors’ Forum (SDF) (September 2018), The UK Nuclear Industry Guide To: Organisational Capability and Resilience.

China, Brazil Lead in Chipping Away at U.S. Economic Power Abroad

BY W. T. WHITNEY

 APRIL 14, 2023
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Photograph Source: Palácio do Planalto – CC BY 2.0

The United States proclaimed the Monroe Doctrine 200 years ago and ever since has arranged Latin American and Caribbean affairs to its advantage. Nevertheless, struggles for national and regional independence did continue and the poor and marginalized classes did resist. Eventually there would be indigenous movements, labor mobilizations, and progressive and socialist-inclined governments. Cuba’s revolutionary government has endured for 63 years.

The U.S. political hold may have weakened, but U.S. control over the region’s economies remains strong; after World War II it extended worldwide. Now cracks are showing up. In particular, the U.S. dollar’s role as the world economy’s dominant currency may have run its course.

In 1944, 44 allied nations determined that the value of their various currencies would correlate with the value of the U.S. dollar instead of the value of gold. The nations since then have relied on the U.S. dollar for their reserve currencies, for foreign trade and in banking transactions.

There seemed to be good reason. The United States was supreme in producing and marketing goods and so, presumably, the dollar’s value would remain stable and predictable. The dollar would be readily accessible to bankers and traders and its valuation would be unambiguous. Nations could also build their currency reserves through the dollars they accumulated in the form of bonds sold by an increasingly indebted United States.

The United States has benefited. In currency exchanges involving the dollar, U.S. companies and individuals experience only minor add-on costs. U.S. importers know that the more the dollar strengthens in value, the less expensive will be products they buy abroad. U.S. borrowing costs overseas are relatively low because U.S. bonds, and the investments they represent in dollars, are appealing abroad, for a variety of reasons.

Dollar dominance has caused pain abroad. Exporters to the United States take a hit when the exchange value of the dollar weakens. Importers of U.S. goods are hurt when the dollar strengthens.

Most importantly, the U.S. government gains an opening to punish enemy countries through their use of dollars in international transactions. It imposes economic sanctions requiring that dollars not be used in a targeted country’s overseas transactions. The U.S. Treasury Department penalizes foreign banks and companies that disobey. Sanctioned nations have included Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and more recently, China and Russia.

The U.S. government’s frequent resort to economic sanctions has greatly contributed to new stirrings on behalf of a new international currency system. Confiscation of currency reserves deposited in U.S. and European banks that belong to Iran, Venezuela, and Afghanistan have likewise encouraged calls for change.

On March 29 China and Brazil announced they would use their own currencies in trading with each other. China is Brazil’s biggest trade partner. China’s renminbi currency presently constitutes a major share of Brazil’s currency reserves.

Earlier in 2023, Brazil and Argentina proposed cooperation toward creating a common currency for themselves. At the January meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), Brazilian President Lula da Silva opined that, “If it were up to me, I would promote a single currency for the region.” He would call it the “SUR” (South).  The ALBA regional alliance in 2009 proposed an electronic currency called the “Sucre” aimed at reducing dollar dependency.

Former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is the recently named head of the New Development Bank which, headquartered in Shanghai, serves the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The bank represents an alternative to the U.S. -dominated International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The shift away from dollar dependency is evident elsewhere.

At a Russian-Indian “Strategic Partnership …Forum” recently, a Russian official announced that the BRICS states would be creating a new currency and that the formal announcement would be made at the BRICS summit meeting in Durban South Africa in August.

The BRICS countries account for “40% of the global population and one-fourth of the global GDP.” According to People’s Dispatch, Iran and Saudi Arabia, having recently signed a peace accord, will soon be joining BRICS. Egypt, Algeria, the UAE, Mexico, Argentina, and Nigeria apparently are giving consideration. The values of new currencies will rest not on another currency but on the value of “products, rare-earth minerals, or soil.”

Iran and Russia in January agreed on methods useful for bypassing the SWIFT banking system, the U.S. tool for servicing its dollar dominance. To evade U.S. sanctions, the two countries reply on their own currencies for most transactions.

At their summit in March, Russian and Chinese leaders reiterated their intention to expand bilateral trade and utilize their own currencies. China increasingly is using its own currency in transactions with Asian, African, and Latin American countries. The yuan “has become the world’s fifth-largest payment currency, third-largest currency in trade settlement and fifth-largest reserve currency,” according to Global Times.

Saudi Arabia is on the verge of selling oil and natural gas in currencies other than the dollar, and China occasionally pays Arabian Gulf nations in yuan for those products.

The finance ministers and governors of the central banks of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Indonesia on March 28. At the top of their agenda were “discussions to reduce dependence on the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, and British Pound from financial transactions and move to settlements in local currencies”. The ASEAN nations, an alliance of 10 southeast Asian nations, are developing a digital payment system for member states’ transactions.

Dollar dominance may be losing its appeal closer to home. Former Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill claims that, The U. S. dollar plays a far too dominant role in global finance … Whenever the Federal Reserve Board has embarked on periods of monetary tightening, or the opposite, loosening, the consequences on the value of the dollar and the knock-on effects have been dramatic.”

Gillian Tell, chair of the Financial Times’ editorial board notes that, “concerns are afoot that this month’s US banking turmoil, inflation and looming debt ceiling battle is making dollar-based assets less attractive.” Plus, “a multipolar pattern could come as a shock to American policymakers, given how much external financing the US needs.”

There are wider implications. Argentinian economist Julio Gambina bemoans “disorder in the world economy …[and] this attitude of unilateralism represented by the US sanctions.” Interviewed on March 29, Gambina points out that “wealth has a father and a mother: labor and nature.”

He adds that, “Latin America and the Caribbean … where inequality is growing the most … have a highly skilled working class, willing to carry forward the production of wealth. We have the resource of assets held in common for sovereign development through which the interests of our peoples and the reproduction of nature, life and society are defended.”

W.T. Whitney Jr. is a retired pediatrician and political journalist living in Maine.

Calculated Misrepresentations: The US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

BY BINOY KAMPMARK

 APRIL 14, 2023
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Photograph Source: Staff Sgt. Kylee Gardner – Public Domain

Succeeding administrations have a chronic habit of blaming their predecessors.  The Biden administration has been most particular on the issue, taking every chance to attack former President Donald Trump for the ills of his tenure.  But the effort to almost exclusively lay blame at Trump’s door for the US fiasco in Afghanistan was a rich one indeed, given the failings of the George W. Bush and Obama administrations in that historically doomed theatre of conflict.

Revolutions, Leon Trotsky remarked, are always verbose.  But so are failed wars, military campaigns and invasions.  The greater the failure, the weightier the verbosity from the apologists.  National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, as befitting his title, is just the man for the task.

In announcing the findings of the Biden administration into the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Kirby proved infuriatingly bureaucratic, his address addled by management speak.  “As you all know,” he told a White House press conference, “over these many months, departments and agencies key to the withdrawal conducted thorough, internal after-action reviews, each of them examining their decision-making processes, as well as how those decisions were executed.”

The briefing began as all praise for his own administration’s virtues (naturally).  The President had made the right decision to leave Afghanistan (no mention that the paving had already been laid by Trump).  “The United States had long ago accomplished its mission to remove from the battlefield the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and to degrade the terrorist threat to the United States from Afghanistan.”

Leaving Afghanistan placed the US “on a stronger strategic footing, more capable to support Ukraine and to meet our security commitments around the world, as well as the competition with China, because it is not fighting a ground war in Afghanistan.”  We can all be assured that this half-sighted colossus, unshackled in Afghanistan, can pursue its mischief making elsewhere.

The finger-pointing duly follows.  First, Trump is blamed for not having more troops in Afghanistan that needed to be withdrawn in the first place.  There should have been more than the official number of 2,500 present, “the lowest since 2001.”  Biden also “inherited a Special Immigrant Visa program that had been starved of resources.”  The Trump administration-Taliban deal calling for the complete removal of troops by May 2021, lest the Taliban would resume its attacks on US soldiers, also comes in for a serve.

Then comes the issue of transitions, because they “matter”.  Trump and his officials had asked about what plans for a security transition in Afghanistan would look like, or those to increase numbers in the Special Immigrant Visa program.  “None were forthcoming.”

Kirby spends much time explaining how the events that unfolded in the dying days of the US garrison were unforeseeable.  “No agency predicted a Taliban takeover in nine days.”  Nor did they predict the fleeing of President Ashraf Ghani, that greatly reliable figure of US interests, “who had indicated to us his intent to remain in Afghanistan up until he departed on the 15^th of August.  And no agency predicted that more than – that the more than 300,000 trained and equipped Afghan National Security and Defense Forces would fail to fight for their country, especially after 20 years of American support.”

All these points are staggering from a historical viewpoint.  They betray, not merely the delusion of Empire, but the stupidity and myopic nature of its emissaries.  The lessons of Vietnam, and the Vietnamisation program pursued by the US towards its South Vietnamese allies in the latter stages of the Indochina War, were clearly of no consequence.  All that mattered was belief and faith, terrible substitutes for solid evidence and field work.

The report, with the simple title U.S Withdrawal from Afghanistan, is an exercise in bleating and blame.  “When President Trump took office in 2017, there were more than 10,000 troops in Afghanistan.  Eighteen months later, after introducing more than 3,000 additional troops just to maintain the stalemate, President Trump ordered direct talks with the Taliban without consulting our allies and partners or allowing the Afghan government at the negotiating table.”

Involving the puppet Afghan government in any meaningful power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban was doomed from the start, a point that Trump, whether through insight or accident, stumbled upon.  The Biden administration, on the other hand, persists with the chimerical notion that those the strained Pax Americana blesses are supposedly able and capable of maintaining peace in the face of a determined guerrilla fighting force.

As a corollary of that delusion, the report reiterates the fallacy of assuming that training, equipment and numerical superiority somehow overcome a lack of will, sound morale and determination.  “The ANDSF had significant advantages.  Compared to the Taliban, they had vastly superior numbers and equipment: 300,000 troops compared to 80,000 Taliban fighters.”

Trump was also to be blamed for “four years of neglect” that left “crucial systems” in a perilous state of “disrepair.” Refugee support services and the Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program choked with 18,000 applications.

Biden emerges from the report a sage misled.  “From the beginning, President Biden directed that preparations for a potential US withdrawal include planning for all contingencies – including a rapid deterioration of the security situation – even though intelligence at the time deemed this situation unlikely.”  Instructions were given to all close advisers to draw up plans for the withdrawal; the National Security Council “hosted dozens of high-level planning meetings, formal rehearsals of the withdrawal, and table top exercises” examining various scenarios.

These evidently did not help.  The collapse of the government in Kabul “unfolded,” as Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence stated on August 18, 2021 “more quickly than [the Intelligence Community] anticipated.”  But wait, there is more: “the collapse was more rapid than either the Taliban or the Afghan government expected.”

The evacuation effort itself was plagued with problems, though the report attempts to minimise Biden’s hand.  He, after all, had been advised that “risks”, including keeping such access routes as the Abbey Gate open at Kabul Airport, were “manageable”.  In the chaos that ensued, a suicide bomber killed 13 US personnel and 170 Afghans.  A pre-emptive drone strike by the US military launched a few days later intended to neutralise another potential attack ended up killing 10 civilians.

The entire calamity was an example of an imperial, ruinous escapade left in a shambles.  And the inability on the part of US departments and agencies to understand the durability of the Taliban and the conspicuous weakness of the regime in Kabul, showed yet again a monumental inability to identify the obvious.

Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com

Vivian Krause to ‘Oil Mafia’ Supporters: ‘the Environmentalists Have Won’

The researcher who inspired Alberta’s Energy War Room isn’t done with the alleged conspiracy to landlock Canadian fossil fuel.

April 14, 2023 by DeSmog 

LONG READ


By Taylor Noakes on Desmog

Vivian Krause may well claim the title of the Canadian woman who launched a thousand op-eds.

For over a decade Krause’s claim — that American philanthropic organizations are influencing Canadian environmental groups — provided the basis for hundreds of editorials alleging a far-reaching conspiracy to landlock Canadian oil and gas resources. Columnists pointed to Krause’s research as evidence that American-backed eco-radicals had taken over federal and provincial governments in Canada, halted major pipeline projects, and “played right into the business interests of U.S. billionaires by becoming their useful idiots.”

In recent years Krause has selectively pushed back against such claims, taking legal action against some publications that suggested she linked U.S. oil interests to anti-pipeline efforts. While Krause maintains that she never explicitly stated there were commercial interests behind environmental campaigns against the tar sands, she has nonetheless stated her belief the American economy has benefited considerably. Canadian Press issued a correction and apology to Krause for a 2021 story that made this link more explicit. But most of the high-profile columnists and politicians who referenced her work went unchallenged when concluding environmental protest constitutes foreign political and economic interference, or benefits the American energy sector.

Krause’s research laid the foundation for a $3.5 million public inquiry into anti-Alberta energy campaigns and their funding. She’s been credited by Alberta premiers Danielle Smith and Jason Kenney for inspiring the $30 million Canadian Energy Centre, also known as the Energy War Room, which aims to counter what it has described as “domestic and foreign-funded campaigns against Canada’s oil and gas industry.”

Alberta’s public inquiry found no wrongdoing by environmentalists, yet Krause continues to entertain speculation about foreign-funded radicals unwittingly serving the interests of international producers in online spaces run by fossil fuel industry supporters.


Krause rolled out a familiar set of research during a talk to an online group calling itself the Canadian Oil Mafia. Krause told supporters that environmentalists have won the public relations war for Canadians’ hearts and minds, and did not challenge any conspiratorial ideas raised during the hour-long session.

Krause’s claim that environmentalists have won was out of step with the tens of billions of dollars in annual subsidies still paid out to the fossil fuel sector by governments in Canada, the Trudeau government’s purchase of the TransMountain pipeline in 2018, the fact that Canada’s oil sands production hit a record high of 3.6 million barrels a day in the first half of 2022 — largely due to new pipeline capacity across North America — and the record-smashing profits that Canadian oil producers are posting these days, to name just a few examples.

Moreover, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2021 Canada was responsible for 51 percent of total U.S. petroleum imports, including crude oil, and 62 percent of its total crude oil imports, making Canada far and away the primary source of foreign oil to the United States.

Krause’s talk, which took place on Twitter Spaces in June 2022, was hosted by Sohaib Abbas and kicked off with, appropriately enough, the Chad Cooke Band’s song Oil Man.

Abbas is the organizer of the Canadian Oil Mafia, whose stated mission is: “To have a positive impact educating others on the Generational Opportunity in the Canadian Energy Industry.” The group consists of people who have made investments in the fossil fuel energy sector, or who otherwise support it. The Canadian Oil Mafia consists of a Twitter Spaces group and, up until a few months ago, a website that sold merchandise featuring pro-oil slogans. Abbas regularly hosts online events featuring speakers commenting on the fossil fuel industry.

Krause’s June presentation was titled: “Sabotaging of Canadian Oil and Gas.” Twitter recorded 679 people tuning into the event, with an average of about 200 participants throughout Krause’s talk.

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After the musical introduction a co-host identified as Mark provided a summary of some of the difficulties experienced by the Canadian oil patch in recent years, from the vantage point of people who feel the Canadian fossil fuel sector has been denied fair access to the global oil and gas market.

The introduction went over some well-trod (if misleading) claims about how Canada “couldn’t get its oil to tidewater” before veering off into speculation about Hollywood celebrities allegedly partying with the Saudi Royal Family while attacking Canada’s oil and gas sector. In fact, Canadian oil exports are at all-time highs, nearing $14 billion CAD in June of 2022, with oil sands production reaching 3.5 million barrels per day in 2021, much of which was pumped south to the Gulf of Mexico through new pipeline infrastructure, including Enbridge’s Line 3.

Asked to comment on this discrepancy, Krause wrote in an emailed statement to DeSmog that “the fact that the industry has recently been profitable does not change the fact that Northern Gateway, Energy East and Keystone XL were canceled.” Though all three of these proposed pipelines were controversial and elicited strong opposition from environmentalists, Northern Gateway’s cancellation was caused in large part by the Federal Court of Appeal rejecting the project due to insufficient consultation with Indigenous groups. The latter two were both canceled by TransCanada Energy (now called TC Energy).

Despite the presentation’s title, Krause did not directly demonstrate who was responsible for allegedly sabotaging Canada’s fossil fuel sector. Participants seemed to already believe the sector had been sabotaged and that environmentalists were responsible.

What Krause offered was the insinuation of guilt by association, and much of that was based on what Krause claims to have discovered about campaigns against the salmon farming industry in British Columbia, and not the fossil fuel sector.

Krause said the issue of salmon farming was particularly contentious in British Columbia in the 1990s, as farming practices were damaging wild salmon habitats (arguments that have been confirmed by recent research). The BC government instituted a divisive moratorium that had the support of environmentalists, including the David Suzuki Foundation.

Krause claimed that she had found evidence suggesting wild salmon had greater concentrations of mercury than farmed salmon, and that studies issued by the Suzuki Foundation — concerning the negative environmental impacts of salmon farming — were flawed. She stated that her efforts to bring this to the attention of the foundation were rebuffed, and this caused her to split with Suzuki, whom she said she once supported. This she claimed was the moment that set her on a course to investigate the money trail behind prominent Canadian environmental groups.

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Krause was emphatic that “…the same organizations using the same strategies, the same tactics, and sometimes involving the same scientific journals, the same activists, the same people with the same approach that had sabotaged salmon farming in British Columbia (…) were now turning their eyes to Alberta oil,” but never provided any specific proof.

One host asked whether Krause believed an increase in the number of applications or approvals from the Alberta Energy Regulator starting in 2010 had “tipped off” environmental activists.

Krause responded that the Rockefeller Brothers Fund had been funding the Suzuki Foundation on matters related to the north coast of BC and that, after the California energy crisis and the September 11th terrorist attacks of 2001, that the fund began reorienting its focus toward energy security. Krause said that the Rockefeller fund then became more involved in advocacy and activism circa 2004, providing money to set up meetings in Canada as well as to “develop a strategic plan to address oil and gas development in B.C.” Krause also said the same fund gave “Canadian environmental groups $100,000 each” though without specifying which groups were funded, which she said was “…to prevent the development of a pipeline and tanker port on the north coast of B.C.” She continued, saying that the same funder then provided millions more in the middle aughts to what she termed activist groups.

“Those of us who have a different vision for our country, our future, we need to realize that we’re in a battle of ideas,” Krause said. “It’s not just the best ideas that win. It’s the team that works the hardest. The people that wanted to sabotage all these projects, they worked really hard. They raised a lot of money. They’re winning right now.”

Krause reiterated that environmental activists have successfully sabotaged the “projects that could have enabled our country to be part of the global energy market.”

Krause described how the best intentions of the environmental movement had, as she described it, negatively impacted the lives of ordinary people. “That is one of the things that motivated me — I have no time for people who falsely malign hardworking people. And we saw an entire industry that’s been falsely maligned, unfairly smeared,” said Krause.

Krause again used fish farming examples to support her allegations of manipulation of the fossil fuel sector. She said that the environmentalist effort against the BC salmon farming industry had been done specifically to aid the Alaskan commercial salmon fishing industry: “Alaska had a flourishing commercial salmon fishing industry. And then there was the competition from the farmed salmon. What happened is the Packard Foundation put this program together to help the Alaskan commercial fisheries reposition their product. And they did it by de-positioning or de-marketing the competition,” Krause said. “This was about market access and what they were doing by funding the activist groups was blocking market access. So they were mitigating the trade impacts by exaggerating the environmental impact.”

Krause alleged that the same groups turned their attention to Alberta oil in 2010, and adopted the same strategies for the same purpose. This, Krause explained, was done all while being mindful not to offend Saudi Arabian interests, and so it was Canadian oil that came to be demonized by American ENGOs.

“They didn’t want to talk about the geopolitics, especially after 9/11,” Krause said. Instead, she claimed the US built up its alternative energy supply “in the name of saving the planet rather than in the name of getting off Saudi oil.”

Canadian tarsands oil first surpassed imports from Saudi Arabia in 2004, a consequence of the American invasion of Iraq. By 2014, the United States was importing less oil and petroleum products than at any time in the previous two decades, but this was a consequence of reduced demand and increased domestic production, not a transition to alternative energy sources. Increased American production resulted in a global oil glut by the end of 2014. At Saudi Arabia’s insistence, OPEC maintained their production rate, pushing the price of a barrel of oil down to below $50 by early 2015. This in turn caused both American and Canadian oil production to plummet. It led to major layoffs in the oil patch and contributed to the chronic difficulties experienced by Canada’s fossil fuel sector in subsequent years.

Krause was asked why American philanthropic organizations chose to focus their energies on landlocking Canadian oil and gas, to which she responded Canada was the only country that could help the United States transition off of imported Saudi Arabian oil, which she claimed ranged from 40 to 60 percent of all the oil consumed in the United States.

While Canada did replace Saudi Arabia as the primary foreign source of oil imported into the United States in 2004, Saudi Arabian exports to the United States were already declining, falling from a high of 1.77 million barrels per day in 2003 to 530,000 in 2020. Similarly, U.S. oil imports from the Persian Gulf fell over the same period, from an all time high set in 2001, when imports from the region accounted for 23 percent of the U.S. total, down to less than 16 percent in 2018. Current data reveals that Saudi Arabia only accounted for 5 percent of total American petroleum imports, including crude oil. Canada, by contrast, accounted for 51 percent in the same year, continuing a more or less consistent trend that reaches back to the 1990s.

These facts undermine Krause’s claims that the conspiracy to sabotage Canada’s oil and gas sector was successful. As a percentage of its total oil import, the United States is more dependent on Canada today than it has been on Saudi Arabia at any point in the last four — nearly five — decades.

Krause opined that the other reason American philanthropic groups targeted Canada is because, in Krause’s words, “we’re easy to push around,” which was readily accepted by the audience.

“We’ve made ourselves an easy target by never fighting back and never pushing back (…) that’s why I talked so much about salmon farming, because if you want to know the future of the activism against Canadian oil, look at salmon farming. They had just shown that you can bully an industry, an entire industry, and have it discontinue investing in a particular country. It worked on fish. Why not try it on oil?”

The Canadian Oil Mafia latched on to this narrative in particular, with the cohost identified as Mark stating: “We are such a punching bag.”

Given reports that the Canadian government provided more than $18 billion in verifiable subsidies to the fossil fuel sector in 2022, Krause’s claim that the environmental movement has won anything is difficult to believe.

Taylor C. Noakes is an independent journalist and public historian.

—

Previously Published on desmog

CLIMATE CRISIS

Here’s why downpour in Florida just wouldn’t stop

By SETH BORENSTEINApril 15, 2023

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FILE - People try and save valuables as they wade through flood waters in the Edgewood neighborhood of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., April 13, 2023. Over 25 inches of rain fell in South Florida since Monday, causing widespread flooding. (Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

In some ways, it was the Florida Man of storms – not quite knowing when to say when.

Usually, thunderstorms fizzle out after they run out of rain or get cold air sucked in. But not Wednesday, when the storm that hit Fort Lauderdale had the warm and moisture-rich Gulf Stream nearby.

The end result was more than 25 inches (63.5 centimeters) of rain drenching and flooding Fort Lauderdale in six to eight hours. That ranked among the top three in major U.S. cities over a 24-hour period, behind Hilo, Hawaii’s, 27 inches (68.58 centimeters) in 2000 and Port Arthur, Texas’s 26.5 inches (67.31 centimeters) in 2017, according to weather historian Chris Burt.

Trucks and a resident on foot make their way through receding floodwaters in the Sailboat Bend neighborhood of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., April 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

While it could happen in other places in coastal America, Florida has the right topography, plenty of warm water nearby and other favorable conditions, said Greg Carbin, forecast branch chief at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center.

Just two days before the downpour, Weather Prediction Center forecaster David Roth told colleagues that conditions were lining up similar to April 25, 1979, when 16 inches of rain (40.64 centimeters) fell on Fort Lauderdale, Carbin said.

What parked over Fort Lauderdale on Wednesday was a supercell — the type of strong thunderstorm that can spawn killer tornadoes and hail and plows across the Great Plains and Mid-South in a fierce, fast-moving but short path of destruction, several meteorologists said.

Normally a cell like that would “snuff itself out” in maybe 20 minutes or at least keep moving, Carbin said. But in Fort Lauderdale the supercell was in a lull between opposing weather systems, Carbin said. It lasted six to eight hours.

“You had this extreme warmth and moisture that was just feeding into the cell and because it had a bit of a spin to it, it was essentially acting like a vacuum and sucking all that moisture back up into the main core of the system,” said Steve Bowen, a meteorologist and chief science officer for GallagherRe, a global reinsurance broker. “It just kept reigniting itself, essentially.”

What was key, said former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, was “the availability of warm ocean air from the Gulf Stream was essentially infinite.”

Other factors included a strong low pressure system, with counterclockwise winds, churning away in the toasty Gulf of Mexico, Maue and Carbin said. There was a temperature difference between the slightly cooler land in Florida and the 80-degree-plus Gulf Stream waters. Add to that wind shear, which is when winds are flowing in opposite directions at high and low altitude, helping to add some spin.

Flooding lingers at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on April 13, 2023, 

after heavy rain pounded South Florida. 

(Joe Cavaretta /South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

Many of those conditions by themselves are not unusual, including the location of the Gulf Stream. But when they combined in a precise way, it acted like a continuous feeding loop that poured rain in amounts that the National Weather Service in Miami called a 1-in-1,000 chance.

“We continue to see more and more of these thousand-year” weather extremes in major cities, Bowen said. “The whole definition of normal is changing.”

Physics states that a warmer climate holds more moisture in the air, about 4% more for every degree Fahrenheit (7% for every degree Celsius). But warming also increases the intensity of storms amplifying that moisture level, said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann.

And that moisture then falls as rain.

James Richard and Katherine Arroyo trudge through the water in Hollywood, Fla., on April 13, 2023. (Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

One-day downpours have “increased in frequency and magnitude over the last several decades and will continue to increase in both in the coming decades,” University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado said in an email. “These heavy rainfall events coupled with sea level rise on the Florida coast need to serve as significant ‘wake up calls’ for the residents of South Florida about the severe risks that climate change poses to them.”

A Florida mayor accused Ron DeSantis — who's away on a book tour — of not calling to check in on Fort Lauderdale as it floods

Aditi Bharade
Apr 14, 2023

Ron DeSantis. Chris duMond/Getty Images

Ron DeSantis was away in Ohio on his book tour when Fort Lauderdale flooded this week.
"Governor DeSantis has not yet called. I'm not sure what's going on," the mayor of Fort Lauderdale said.

DeSantis previously visited cities affected by Hurricane Ian to talk about relief efforts.

Fort Lauderdale's mayor said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had not called him to check in on the city after it was severely flooded this week due to record-breaking rains.

In a press conference on Thursday, Mayor Dean Trantalis, a member of the Democratic party, gave updates on the flood that had shut down major roads in the city and turned the local airport into a lake.

Reporter Chris Nelson asked Trantalis if he had spoken to DeSantis, to which Trantalis replied: "Governor DeSantis has not yet called."

"I'm not sure what's going on, but I'm sure he's very interested in what's going on here, and we're happy to work with his office," Trantalis said.

He added that the state agencies have been "very helpful" in working with the city to recover from the floods.

DeSantis was in Ohio for a GOP event on Thursday, per NBC News. The event is part of his national tour for his book "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival."

Although he had not officially declared a 2024 bid, DeSantis' book tour is widely regarded as a precursor to his presidential run. An email from the Trump campaign on Monday separately accused DeSantis of not formally declaring a 2024 run and using his governor's salary to fund unofficial campaign travels like his book tour.

Despite being out of Florida, DeSantis acknowledged the floods back home by declaring a state of emergency for Broward County on his Twitter page on Thursday.

DeSantis has previously visited other disaster zones. In October, DeSantis visited Arcadia to speak about the state's relief efforts after Hurricane Ian made landfall in South Florida. In March, DeSantis was also in Fort Myers to talk about hurricane recovery efforts.

Representatives for DeSantis and Trantalis did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.

 

HKS Carr Center Hosts Panel on Future of Technology, Policy, and Human Rights

The Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center for Human Rights is located at 79 John F. Kennedy St. in Cambridge. By Santiago A. Saldivar

By Isabella G. Schauble and Jennifer Y. Song, Contributing Writers

The Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy hosted a virtual panel on the implications of technology on ethics and human rights Thursday afternoon.

The talk is part of the ongoing series “Towards Life 3.0: Ethics and Technology in the 21st Century,” which examines emerging technologies and their impact on modern society. The event featured Steven Feldstein, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, and was moderated by Carr Center Director Mathias Risse and Sarah Hubbard, a fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Feldstein opened the event by discussing the increased use of digital tools, such as online surveillance and censorship techniques, by political leaders to control digital communications. According to Feldstein, these tools offer built-in advantages for leaders to exploit.

“There’s a lower prospect for public backlash,” Feldstein said. “And over the long term, there tends to be lower cost associated with this type of surveillance or censorship techniques versus traditional methods.”

When asked about solving ethical issues in technology, Feldstein said “the problem isn’t really technological — even though it is technology, we tend to think about solutions in terms of what kind of fixes can we make.”

“I think a better analogy is arms control,” he added.

Feldstein suggested that penalizing intelligence firms from developing spyware could be a solution to “help cut down to the most sophisticated military grade technology.”

Besides concerns with big data, technological risks have also emerged in the physical battlefield, with countries such as Turkey and Russia on the edge of developing “fully autonomous killer drones,” Feldstein said.

“If more states are convinced that autonomous drones are the key to the future of war, then they will be motivated to pour resources into developing these technologies,” Feldstein said. “And due to the open technological revolution where innovation has shifted from governments to private commercial firms, a wider group of countries can acquire advanced tools for military uses.”

“One dimension of that, I think, has been Russia seeking to co-op Ukraine’s digital infrastructure,” he said. “They targeted the TV tower because they recognize that severing the ability of Ukrainians to either consume or produce information would be key to the Russian forces being able to assert control very quickly over Ukraine.”

“It’s incumbent upon citizens, civil society, researchers, academics, and others to work closely with policymakers to inform them of risks, and to help push for action when it comes to legislation, directives, and so forth,” Feldstein added.

US investors see Philippines in different light under new admin - envoy

ABS-CBN News
Posted at Apr 14 2023 

A view of the Ortigas business district skyline, as seen from Pasig City on May 27, 2022. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News/File

MANILA — The rebooting of Philippines-United States relations under the Marcos administration played a huge role in boosting the interest of foreign investors to the country, Manila's top diplomat in Washington said Friday.

According to Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez, Washington looks at Manila in a "different light" and as a "high potential for investments" under a new government.

"There's no doubt about it that our defense strategy with the US played a major role in how US businesses are looking at the Philippines today," he told ANC's "Headstart."

The country has also implemented several economic reforms to attract foreign investments, Romualdez said.

Foreign investors are now allowed to have 100 percent ownership in key sectors like telecommunications, airlines and airways.

This is the reason why interest in the Philippines has become "much stronger," Romualdez added.IMF's upgraded growth outlook signals PH is in 'good shape': Diokno

In an economic briefing in Washington, D.C., the International Monetary Fund said the Philippines' gross domestic product could grow by 6 percent in 2023 from the previous 5 percent estimate.

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said the country is "in pretty good shape compared to the rest of the world."

"Being in that Philippine economic briefing, I have never seen so much enthusiasm coming from our American partners," Romualdez said.

In February, Manila and Washington announced a deal to give US troops access to another 4 bases in "strategic areas" under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

The US and the Philippines have also agreed to restart joint patrols in the South China Sea as the longtime allies seek to counter China's military rise.

The 2 countries had suspended maritime patrols in the hotly contested area under the rule of former President Rodrigo Duterte.

The new agreements come as the allies seek to repair ties that were fractured under Duterte, who favored China over his country's former colonial master.

The new administration of Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. has been keen to reverse that.

Beijing's growing assertiveness on Taiwan and its building of bases in the disputed South China Sea have given fresh impetus to Washington and Manila to strengthen their partnership.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M 

U.S. Secret Service arrests 28-year-old Nigerian indicted in $6 million Internet fraud

Kosi Simon-Ebo is charged in three wire fraud counts involving $6,343,533.10.

PRESS RELEASE • APRIL 13, 2023

U.S. Secret Service officers

Department of Justice
U.S. Attorney’s Office
District of Maryland

Thursday, April 13, 2023

Three Nigerian Nationals Facing Federal Charges Related to a Fraud Scheme With Losses of More Than $6 Million

First Defendant Extradited to the United States Arrived on April 12, 2023

Greenbelt, Maryland – The first of three defendants, Kosi Goodness Simon-Ebo, age 29, has been extradited from Canada to the United States to face a federal indictment, and is scheduled to have his initial appearance on Friday, April 14, 2023, at 3:30 p.m. in U.S. District Court in Greenbelt before U.S. Magistrate Judge Amjel Quereshi. A federal grand jury returned an indictment charging Simon-Ebo, James Junior Aliyu, a/k/a “Old Soldier,” and “Ghost,” age 28 and Henry Onyedikachi Echefu, age 31, all Nigerian citizens residing in South Africa, with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering and for wire fraud and money laundering charges related to a business email compromise (“BEC”) scheme with losses of more than $6 million. The indictment was returned on June 24, 2019, and unsealed on July 6, 2022, upon the defendants’ arrests outside the United States.

The indictment was announced by Erek L. Barron, United States Attorney for the District of Maryland; Special Agent in Charge James C. Harris of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Baltimore; and Special Agent in Charge Matthew R. Stohler of the U.S. Secret Service – Washington Field Office.

According to the seven-count indictment, from February 2016 until at least July 2017, the defendants conspired with others to perpetrate a BEC scheme. Specifically, the indictment alleges that the defendants and their co-conspirators, including co-conspirators residing in Maryland, gained unauthorized access to email accounts associated with individuals and businesses targeted by the conspirators. The co-conspirators then allegedly sent false wiring instructions to the victims’ email accounts from “spoofed” emails, which are emails with forged sender addresses, to deceive the victims into sending money to bank accounts controlled by perpetrators of the scheme, called “drop accounts.”

The indictment also alleges that the defendants conspired to commit money laundering by disbursing the fraudulently obtained funds in the drop accounts to other accounts by initiating account transfers, withdrawing cash, obtaining cashier’s checks and by writing checks to other individuals and entities, to hide the true ownership and the source of those assets. For example, defendant Aliyu is alleged to have made a $350,000 wire transfer from one of the drop accounts in Maryland to an account he controlled in South Africa, knowing that the funds were the proceeds of a crime and that the transaction was designed to conceal the nature, source and ownership of those funds. Finally, the defendants are charged with wire fraud, related to the BEC scheme. Specifically, Simon-Ebo is charged in three wire fraud counts involving $6,343,533.10 in victim funds being wired to accounts controlled by conspirators.

If convicted, the defendants each face a maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison for the wire fraud conspiracy, for the money laundering conspiracy, and for each count of wire fraud. If convicted, Aliyu also faces a maximum of 20 years in federal prison for money laundering. Actual sentences for federal crimes are typically less than the maximum penalties. A federal district court judge will determine any sentence after taking into account the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.

An indictment is not a finding of guilt. An individual charged by indictment is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty at some later criminal proceedings.

United States Attorney Erek L. Barron commended HSI’s Mid-Atlantic El Dorado Task Force and the U.S. Secret Service for their work in the investigation. Mr. Barron thanked Assistant U.S. Attorney Kelly O. Hayes, who is prosecuting the federal case.