Friday, July 31, 2026

Spanish PM Sánchez: Ceuta migrant crisis 'a violation of territorial integrity'

Statement by the Prime Minister of Spain
Copyright AP Photo

By Cristian Caraballo & Euronews
Published on

The prime minister slammed the massive influx of migrants crossing over from Morocco as a "violation of Spain's territorial integrity", which he said, "deserves our reproach and our condemnation at the strongest possible level".

During a TV address on Friday morning, Pedro Sánchez also vowed to "remain resolute in guaranteeing security in the face of any challenge, any eventuality and under any circumstances."

He was speaking from Ceuta, the Spanish autonomous city on the northern coast of North Africa which saw at least 60,000 migrants cross over from Morocco in recent days, according to Spanish authorities.

If the figure is confirmed, the event would be the largest single surge in irregular arrivals ever recorded on EU territory and Spain's biggest ever migrant crisis.

Most migrants came by sea, swimming from the Moroccan border town of Fnideq. They reached several beaches, especially El Tarajal, one of the closest to the border.

Sánchez also sent a message of support to the people of Ceuta, saying that "the whole of Spain stands with them" and acknowledging the "anguish" the population is going through. "We understand the emotional strain the people of Ceuta are under," he said.

He attributed the surge to migrant-trafficking networks, noting that "criminal gangs" had purposefully misinterpreted a July Spanish Supreme Court ruling, believing it banned the immediate return of sea-arrival migrants without a trial.

"What has emerged from our talks with Moroccan authorities is that trafficking mafias took a self-serving interpretation of a Supreme Court ruling," he said. That interpretation "spread like wildfire in recent hours."

The prime minister also recalled that Melilla - another Spanish autonomous city in North Africa - had experienced a similar influx of migrants in 2021 and stressed that both autonomous territories require the government's utmost attention.

The prime minister defended his government's migration policy and pointed out that Spain has managed to steadily reduce irregular migration flows. "We have seen a systematic reduction of more than 30% in irregular arrivals," he concluded.


Spain's PM blames trafficking mafia for ongoing Ceuta migrant crisis

Issued on: 31/07/2026 - FRANCE24

Spain's Pedro Sanchez criticised a sudden arrival of around 40,000 migrants from Morocco to the north African enclave Ceuta as "an attack, a violation" of Spain's national territory. The prime minister blamed the influx of immigrants on criminal networks manipulating a recent court ruling that immediate returns of migrants crossing the border illegally did not apply to those arriving by sea. FRANCE 24's Sarah Morris tells us more


Video by:  Sarah MORRIS


Ceuta migrant surge reignites Europe's right-wing assault on Spain's migration policy

Copyright AP Photo/ Alessandra Tarantino

By Luca Bertuzzi
Published on

Migrants storming Spain's north African enclave have sparked right-wing attacks on the Sánchez government's mass migrant regularisation. Left-wing forces have derided the attacks as opportunistic propaganda.

European right-wing figures blame the escalation in the Ceuta enclave on Spain's naturalisation policy, in what left-wing parties call opportunistic attacks.

On Thursday, thousands of migrants stormed the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, prompting Spain's Interior Ministry to declare a national emergency and mobilise troops to restore order in the autonomous city.

Leading right-to-centre figures across Europe have seized on the escalation, accusing Madrid of losing control of its border and blaming the mass illegal crossings on Spain's extraordinary regularisation of hundreds of thousands of migrants.

"Appalling situation at the Spanish border. The devastating images are the direct consequence of the pull factor of massive regularisation doubled with instrumentalisation of illegal migration," Manfred Weber, leader of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), wrote on X.

Right-wing attacks

The "pull effect" is the idea that generous reception conditions and other migration policies make a destination country more attractive, encouraging more arrivals. Here, the suggestion is that Spain raised expectations of future regularisations.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of the hard-right Brothers of Italy party, went as far as proposing the suspension of the Schengen area with Spain, and announced extraordinary measures to defend Italy's border.

"On illegal immigration, we will not yield an inch: defending the borders, stopping human traffickers, and ensuring effective repatriations will continue to be the line of this Government," Meloni wrote on X.

The pull factor is not a scientifically proven phenomenon. Academic consensus holds that migration is driven primarily by "push" factors, such as war and political repression, while pull factors tend to stem from labour and welfare prospects.

Yet with most EU countries veering to the right, Spain has bucked the trend with a massive regularisation programme that drew over 1 million applicants — and the ire of right-wing politicians.

"The images coming from Ceuta show how the Madrid Government's decision to grant Spanish, and therefore European, citizenship to over 500,000 irregular immigrants is profoundly wrong and encourages human trafficking," Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani wrote on X.

Right-wing politicians in other member states argue that Spain has a responsibility to defend Europe's external borders, since the resulting migratory inflows ultimately spill over into destination countries.

"Spanish authorities have recorded 50,000 illegal border crossings in Ceuta so far, with Germany likely the destination for most of these migrants," Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany, wrote on X. "Germany must prepare itself: borders must be secured and rejections rigorously enforced."

Jordan Bardella, France’s radical right leader who is the president of the Patriots for Europe Group in the European Parliament, sent a letter on Friday, seen by Euronews, asking President Roberta Metsola “to hold an urgent debate on the developments in Ceuta and on the failure of the European Union's migration policies.”

Left-wing pushback

For left-wing politicians in Spain and abroad, these attacks are opportunistic. The Ceuta crisis, they say, has simply given critics an excuse to target the only alternative to right-wing migration policy left standing in Europe.

"In Europe, right-wing attitudes have prevailed in picturing migrants as a threat," said MEP Juan Fernando López Aguilar (Spain/S&D), a former justice minister under the Zapatero government.

"Meaning that the humanitarian approach, which is the characteristic response of left-wing-led governments, as is the case of the Spanish government led by Pedro Sánchez, is not only being marginalised, it's increasingly isolated," López Aguilar said.

Experts such as Haizam Amirah Fernández, director of the Centre for Contemporary Arab Studies, point out that the current influx of irregular migrants into Ceuta could hardly have happened without the tacit approval of Moroccan authorities.

Another explanation points to human traffickers exploiting a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that pushbacks cannot be applied to migrants intercepted at sea while swimming into Ceuta or Melilla, as opposed to those climbing the border fence.

Spanish authorities say the recent regularisation applied only to people already on Spanish territory six months before applications opened, meaning new arrivals would not benefit from the measure.

For MEP Cecilia Strada (Italy/S&D), the attacks from the centre to the far-right reflect a clear intent to target Spain, since the Sánchez government has shown it is possible to have a credible progressive leader capable of managing migration flows by tackling its causes rather than its effects.

"This is right-wing propaganda at its worst. Before a humanitarian emergency with tens of deaths and an unknown number of missing people, one would expect European solidarity rather than instrumental attacks aimed at political profiteering," Strada told Euronews.

Vincenzo Genovese contributed to the reporting.



Is the Ceuta crisis the biggest single illegal border crossing ever into the EU?

A member of Moroccan security forces stands guard as people attempt to cross from the Moroccan northern town of Fnideq to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Friday, July 31, 2026
Copyright AP/STR

By Alessio Dell'Anna
Published on

The massive migrant influx that began on Thursday could be the largest irregular crossing attempt into the EU in such a short period of time.

Since Thursday, thousands of migrants have crossed from Morocco into the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta.

The latest estimates by the Spanish government set the number at around 60,000.

If the figures are confirmed, the event would be the largest single surge in irregular arrivals ever recorded on EU territory.

Most migrants came by sea, swimming from the Moroccan border town of Fnideq. They reached several beaches, especially El Tarajal, one of the closest to the border.

At least 18 people have died in the attempt until Friday morning, the Associated Press reports, many of whom in a stampede while trying to cross breakwater fences.

In an address to the nation, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the event an attack on the country's territorial integrity," which "deserves our most resounding and energetic condemnation."

Sanchez blamed it on migrant trafficking, citing a July Spanish Supreme Court ruling, which the gangs allegedly misinterpreted as a ban on returning migrants who arrive via sea without prior trial.

Migrants try to cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Thursday, July 30, 2026.
Migrants try to cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Thursday, July 30, 2026. AP/Antonio Sempere

How does the current Ceuta migrant crisis compare to others?

Ceuta has already experienced similar huge pressure in 2021, when around 10,000 migrants broke into the enclave in just 48 hours, between 17 and 18 May.

At the time, Morocco's reported "border relaxation" was widely interpreted as political retaliation over Spain's decision to allow into the country for medical treatment Brahim Ghali, the leader of Western Sahara's pro-independence front, Polisario.

But over the past decades, Europe witnessed several other spikes in arrivals, often linked to wars and diplomatic rifts, rather than long-term migration trends.

The last major crisis took place in 2015 and 2016, sparked by the war in Syria.

At the time, Hungary had become one of the main countries of transit, with almost 400,000 irregular crossings reported in 2015, mainly from the Western Balkan route. It prompted Budapest to erect a four-meter-high fence on its southern border with Serbia.

A group of migrants sits and waits to be escorted to a train after crossing a border from Croatia near the village of Zakany, Hungary, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2015.
A group of migrants sits and waits to be escorted to a train after crossing a border from Croatia near the village of Zakany, Hungary, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2015. AP/Petr David Josek

Yet, daily arrivals at the peak of the exodus - from 4,000 to over 8,000 - were nowhere near what Ceuta's been experiencing since Thursday.

During the same period, the Greek island of Lesbos also came under extreme pressure, receiving almost half a million arrivals in the same year, according to the UNHCR.

Greece faced another major challenge in 2020, when Turkey announced it would no longer prevent migrants from reaching Europe, following the killing of 33 Turkish soldiers in Syria's Idlib province during an attack by the Syrian government against rebels.

At the time, Turkey claimed it had opened the border to 80,000 migrants, who then headed towards Greece along the Evros River. The flows lasted for a month, leading to a tense standoff between Athens and Ankara.

Which other European borders are most fragile or under pressure?

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, new flows of illegal migrants into the EU - mainly Poland, Latvia and Lithuania - started coming from Belarus, which was accused of relaxing its border control in the context of a hybrid pro-Russia warfare

In 2025, Frontex, the EU border-control agency, detected nearly 11,000 irregular border crossings. However, figures have been declining since 2024 and remain far below the numbers recorded on the EU's busiest migration routes. Namely, the eastern Mediterranean (51,000 detections in 2025) and the central Mediterranean (roughly 66,000 in 2025), with Italy on the frontline.

Frontex
Frontex Illegal migrant crossings, 2025


When it comes to pressure on EU borders, Italy often found itself on the frontline.

One of the most striking recent surges occurred in Lampedusa, a small island between Tunisia and Sicily, where 7,000 migrants arrived in just two days in September 2023.

But perhaps what remains most etched in Italy's collective memory dates back to 1991, when a ship reached Bari carrying around 20,000 Albanian refugees, following the collapse of the country's communist regime.

Thousands of Albanians, fleeing starvation in their impoverished homeland and seeking asylum in Italy, crowd the dock in Bari, Italy, Aug. 8, 1991,
Thousands of Albanians, fleeing starvation in their impoverished homeland and seeking asylum in Italy, crowd the dock in Bari, Italy, Aug. 8, 1991, AP/Luca Turi








Thousands start returning to Morocco after mass arrivals in Spain's Ceuta


Issued on: 31/07/2026 
FRANCE24

At least 34 people have died attempting to reach the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from Morocco, according to Spanish authorities. Officials are pushing for a national emergency to be declared as around 60,000 migrants crossed into the territory via land and sea over the past 24 hours. Over 37,500 have since gone back. It is yet unclear what triggered the influx, although Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has blamed criminal networks.

Video by:  Catherine Viette


At least 19 die as 49,000 migrants cross from Morocco into Spain’s Ceuta

At least 19 die as 49,000 migrants cross from Morocco into Spain’s Ceuta
/ BBC videoFacebook
By bne IntelliNews July 31, 2026

At least 19 people died after about 49,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in a single day, prompting both countries to reinforce controls along the European Union’s border with Africa.

Spain and Morocco moved to halt further crossings on July 31 after the unprecedented influx overwhelmed the small territory, Reuters reported, citing Spanish authorities. Moroccan security forces deployed water cannon near the frontier, while Spain sent additional personnel to Ceuta.

Some of those who died drowned while attempting to reach the territory by sea, while others were killed in a stampede near Tarajal beach, the Associated Press reported, citing a local representative of Spain’s Civil Guard.

The influx was equivalent to more than half of Ceuta’s population of about 85,000 and far exceeded the roughly 8,000 people who entered during a migration crisis in 2021.

Reception facilities were overwhelmed, leaving migrants, including families and unaccompanied children, sleeping in parks and on streets. Ceuta’s regional authorities called on the Spanish government to declare a national emergency and provide additional security and humanitarian support.

Spanish authorities said they would seek to return people who had entered irregularly. Some officials linked the scale of the crossing to a recent Supreme Court ruling restricting the immediate return of migrants arriving by sea without due process, although the reason for the mass movement remained unclear.

The crisis also prompted political tensions within the EU after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni threatened measures affecting Spain’s participation in the Schengen free-travel area. Spain rejected the criticism and said it would summon Italy’s ambassador.

Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s two territories on Morocco’s northern coast, form the EU’s only land borders with Africa and are frequent targets for migrants seeking to enter the bloc.

Spain recorded 3,523 irregular land arrivals in Ceuta in 2025, up 39% from 2,531 in 2024 and more than triple the 1,068 recorded in 2023, according to Interior Ministry data. Sea arrivals into Ceuta were far smaller, at four in 2025, 28 in 2024 and 67 in 2023.

The pressure continued to rise in 2026. A total of 2,826 people entered Ceuta irregularly by land between January 1 and July 15, compared with 1,133 in the same period of 2025, an increase of 149%. That figure predates the latest mass crossing and illustrates how exceptional the estimated one-day influx of 49,000 was.

The previous major crisis came in May 2021, when about 8,000 people entered Ceuta over two days after Moroccan border controls were relaxed amid a diplomatic dispute with Spain. The latest estimated influx was therefore more than six times larger and occurred within about half the time.

Across the EU, however, the broader trend had been downward before the Ceuta crisis. Frontex recorded just over 49,000 irregular border-crossing detections in the first half of 2026, down 37% year on year, although detections on the Western Mediterranean route rose 17% to 7,860. Frontex figures count detections rather than necessarily distinct individuals. 

More than 40,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta over past 24 hours, Spain says

Migrants cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Thursday 30 July 2026.
Copyright Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.


By Gael Camba
Published on


Spain's ​Interior Ministry ‌said on Friday ​that according to its ⁠estimates ​more than 40,000 migrants had crossed ​into ​the enclave of Ceuta ⁠in North Africa over ​the past 24 hours, as ​they ​rushed ⁠by sea and ⁠land from Morocco.

Around 40,000 migrants have crossed in recent days from Morocco into Spain's Ceuta enclave, a police source said on Friday, as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was due to arrive there.

"There was a steady stream of people all night long," a police source said, adding that migrants "continued to arrive overnight and are still arriving" early Friday.

Spanish authorities said they would try to expel those who had entered illegally as quickly as possible, despite a ​court ruling that has put some new restrictions on special "border rejection" rules that allow immediate expulsions.

It was not immediately clear whether that is what prompted the recent surge of migrants from Morocco.

Migrants return to Morocco from the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Friday, 31 July 2026.

Migrants return to Morocco from the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Friday, 31 July 2026. The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Ebullient migrants on Thursday were walking through the streets of Ceuta, thanking the Spanish police and calling out: "Bye bye Morocco, hello Spain."

Police and Civil Guards in Ceuta appeared to do little to intervene, although some officers attempted to direct the arrivals to the local migrant reception centre.

Diplomatic fallout

Already, the Ceuta scenes of the surge in migrants were causing diplomatic fallout.

Italy on Thursday called for Spain to be suspended from Europe's open-borders Schengen zone, prompting Spain to summon Italy's ambassador and accuse Rome of using the crisis for political gain.

Two top officials within US President Donald Trump's White House on Thursday also reiterated their anti-immigration politics using video of Ceuta.

Hundreds of migrants who have irregularly entered Ceuta began to return to Morocco through the same chokepoint, the breakwater that separates the autonomous city. The migrants are being led by the military to find a way to return.

France reinforces border controls with Spain

The French Interior Minister, Laurent Nuñez, stated this Friday that controls on the border with Spain will be reinforced.

"In light of the situation in the enclave of Ceuta, I gave instructions yesterday evening to immediately step up controls at the Spanish border. Furthermore, I am mobilising the Rapid Border Intervention Force to carry out thorough checks," says the French Interior Minister.

Spanish authorities "overwhelmed"

Spanish authorities said they have been "completely overwhelmed" by the situation, El Mundo reports. Only 55 agents were on the front line when the situation broke out, according to the Spanish newspaper.

The active troops on the ground are "three or four times less than what would be needed to face something like this," says to El Mundo David Gomez, secretary of communication of the Justice Professional Association for the Civil Guard.

The influx marks the largest arrival of migrants in Ceuta since 2021 — predominantly young men and adolescents — with 18 deaths reported during the crossing, according to figures released on Friday morning by the same source.

The number of entries means the population of the enclave increased by around 50%, as around 83,000 people are living in Ceuta.



Spain mobilises troops to Ceuta as thousands of migrants continue to swim across the border from Morocco


By Jesús Maturana & Sonja Issel
Published on

The Spanish government said on Thursday that it would deploy the army to Ceuta to reinforce security after the crossings, which saw many migrants swim around the border to reach the territory.

Thousands of migrants have swum across the border into the autonomous Spanish territory of Ceuta from Morocco on Thursday, prompting the Spanish government to mobilise the troops to the area.

19 people reportedly died while attempting to make it to Ceuta.

The troop mobilisation comes after the enclave's regional president urged Madrid to declare a national emergency and assume control of the situation in the autonomous city, warning that local authorities had become overwhelmed by the surge in illegal crossings.

The Spanish Interior Ministry had initially ruled out declaring a national emergency. It later announced the deployment of troops to help restore order and reinforce security in the territory. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected in Ceuta as political pressure grows from the opposition.

Italy calls for Schengen closure

Italy's foreign minister has called for the closure of the Schengen area to Spain after hundreds of migrants crossed into the North African enclave of Ceuta from Morocco on Thursday.

In a post on X, Antonio Tajani said he was "in favour" of closing the free travel zone with Spain, arguing that "irregular and uncontrolled immigration poses a threat to national security."

"The images coming out of Ceuta show that the Madrid government’s decision to grant Spanish – and therefore European – citizenship to over 500,000 irregular migrants is profoundly misguided and encourages human trafficking," he added, apparently referring to the Spanish government's previous move to give legal status to some undocumented migrants. Spain's foreign minister said he had summoned the Italian ambassador over what he called Tajani's "inappropriate" comments.

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni echoed Tajani's words in another post on social media, saying Rome was ready to take "extraordinary measures" to defend Italy's borders, including through the "suspension of the Schengen area with Spain."

Migrants cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Thursday, July 30, 2026.
Migrants cross from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Thursday, July 30, 2026. Antonio Sempere/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved.


Meanwhile, the European Commissioner for Migration, Austria's Magnus Brunner, said he was in constant contact with the Spanish authorities and stressed that protecting the EU's external borders remains "a crucial part of our efforts to fight illegal migration".

The European Commission said it had offered operational support through Frontex.

The scenes recalled the 2021 migration crisis, when around 10,000 people entered Ceuta over the course of two days. While Morocco says it is cooperating with Spain and the EU to manage the latest arrivals, Rabat has previously been accused of using migration flows to exert political pressure on its European neighbour.

Spain and Morocco agree to speed up returns

Hundreds of people reached Ceuta from Morocco on Thursday, swimming or using inflatable devices to arrive at Tarajal beach, overwhelming Civil Guard officers.

More than 60 people have died attempting the crossing over the past 12 months.

Sánchez said his government was "fully committed to providing an immediate response to the situation in Ceuta" and pledged to work with the Moroccan authorities to "restore normality as soon as possible".

Spain's Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska is expected to travel to Ceuta to meet local officials and assess the situation. The two countries said they had agreed a procedure to accelerate returns, although no timeline or figures were made public.

The Spanish Interior Ministry also said human trafficking networks may be exploiting a recent court ruling to encourage undocumented migrants to attempt the crossing. Rabat blamed traffickers too, even-though its law enforcement also handles the border.

Moroccan diplomatic sources said the increase in irregular crossings did not reflect any intention by the authorities in Rabat to facilitate or promote illegal migration into Spain.

Spain's Civil Guard sources in Ceuta, however, questioned the level of Moroccan cooperation, arguing that support from the Moroccan Gendarmerie had been limited and insufficient to ease pressure at the border, despite the Spanish government's insistence that cooperation with Morocco remained active.












 

One war, three continents and total slippage

One war, three continents and total slippage
The Iran war is morphing into something bigger than Donald Trump probably envisioned when he sought to topple the Tehran regime in February. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook
By bnm Tehran bureau July 30, 2026

A mystery drone hit a US-owned liquefied natural gas carrier at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta on July 29, set it alight, and spread the fire to a second ship.

Cairo took until the following morning to report the incident, likely from being in a flap about being sucked into the wider war with Iran, like Ukraine. That the attack was made with a drone is now clear, but where it came from is not. However, we can perhaps assume it did not fly from Iran as it would have likely been shot down before getting past Israel and Palestine. Later on July 30, Yemeni sources denied it was their drone, Egyptian media reported.

The strike went well into Egyptian territory and was the first on Egypt since the war between the United States and Iran began on February 28, and it lands a war that started in the Persian Gulf on the shore of the Mediterranean, one canal transit away from Europe and a direct challenge to the international shipping system.

On the same day the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United States struck Iran-linked militia sites across Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi shipping. Later, on July 29, the US pummelled Qeshm island in the Gulf blowing up houses, according to the Iranians, making the targeting even more suspect.

Four days earlier to the latest flare up, Ukrainian drones had reached across the Caspian to kill an Iranian sailor.

Draw those points on a globe and a shape appears that did not exist in the spring. A single conflict now touches three continents. It runs from the Caspian in the north to the Gulf of Aden in the south, from the Iraqi plains in the east to the Egyptian coast in the west, with a European supply chain feeding one belligerent and European navies escorting the tankers of another. The question is no longer whether the war is spreading. It is whether the thing spreading is still one war, or several that have grown into each other until the seams no longer hold.

Consider what has already merged. When Ukraine struck the sanctioned cargo ships Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian, it was hitting the supply line that carries Shahed components and, by several accounts, Fath-360 ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia. As suggested at the time, Kyiv did not think it had picked a fight with Tehran. It thought it had interdicted a logistics route. But interdiction is a matter of intent, and a dead sailor is a matter of fact, and Iran now demands full compensation for a strike it says cannot go unanswered. Attacking Iran widens the war, and for Kyiv, that is the point, because it means Ukraine is at war with Trump's enemy. Two conflicts that a foreign ministry could keep in separate files in June share a casualty list in July. The recent funeral of former pro-Ukraine, pro-Iran-regime-change and pro-Israel Lindsay Graham saw the worlds collide in HD this week, even raising eyebrows with exiled and former prince Reza Pahlavi waiting to chat with the Saudi officials sat in front of him.

The mechanism is the same everywhere you look. And it is worth naming because it explains why the map keeps growing. Every belligerent in this war has a reason to attack a target that belongs to somebody else's fight. And every one of those attacks recruits a new party. Ukraine hits Russia's Iranian supply line and acquires Iran as an aggrieved party. The Houthis blockade Saudi shipping to pressure Iran's enemies and turn a Yemeni civil war into a Red Sea energy crisis. Saudi Arabia strikes militia sites in Iraq and makes Baghdad a theatre. Whoever hit Damietta, and the geography of a one-way drone flight narrows the suspect list considerably, has pulled Egypt, a declared non-combatant (but good friend of Russia’s), that has kept lines open to both Washington and Tehran, into a war it spent five months avoiding. Each move is locally rational. The sum is a widening that no single participant chose and none can now stop.

But that is all part of this stochastic war. And it is typical of the interregnum of the post Pax Americana end-of-empire-era. But now we have reached the runaway train part of the story.

The chokepoints tell the same story in the language of freight rates. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since February 28. The Bab al-Mandeb has been under a Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked shipping since July 20. That is the first time in history both have closed at once. It puts a quarter of the world's seaborne oil and gas at risk of being priced off the water. Markets should look more disturbed.

The Saudi bypass pipeline that terminates at Yanbu on the Red Sea was the workaround for the loss of Hormuz. It now empties directly into the second blockade. When we asked in March which straits would close next, the question was still hypothetical. It is now a matter of the shipping schedule. Damietta adds a third pressure point, because a canal that already lost most of its traffic to the Red Sea diversion cannot afford the impression that its own approaches are now a target.

None of this yet amounts to the great-power collision that the phrase "mega war" is meant to summon, and it is worth being precise about why not. The United States is bombing Iran but is not at war with Russia. Russia arms Iran but has committed no forces to its defence. Israel and Iran trade strikes but through proxies and airpower, not armies in the field. The ceasefire brokered by Pakistan in April collapsed, but the diplomatic scaffolding it left behind, the Oman channel, the intermittent US signalling, the fact that Iran and Ukraine's foreign ministers spoke directly for the first time since 2022, has not been dismantled. The war is wide, but it is not yet deep. It sprawls across the map without any two nuclear-armed states firing on each other.

It is thinner because widening is itself a form of escalation, even when no red line is crossed. Every new front is a new place where an accident can happen: a new government that must now calculate retaliation, a new stretch of water where a misidentified hull can produce a dead sailor and a demand for compensation. The Caspian strike did not intend to bring Iran into the Ukraine war. The Damietta drone, whoever launched it, may not have intended to bring Egypt into anything. Intent is the first casualty of a conflict this crowded. The more belligerents share the same map, the smaller the mistake required to connect two of them who had managed, until that morning, to stay out of each other's war.

So, has this become a three-continent war? On the evidence of a single week, yes, in the literal sense that fighting tied to one conflict now spans Africa, Asia and the edge of Europe. Whether it becomes the mega war depends on a variable no analyst can price, which is how many more locally rational strikes the system can absorb before one of them lands somewhere that cannot be managed at the diplomatic level. See Russia striking a Polish field with a missile on July 29, the war is getting bigger and the catalyst was lit months ago.

The participants are still, for now, choosing their targets and there are some checks and balances still in the balance of things. The worry is the moment the map starts choosing for them. Damietta is a long way from Hormuz. On July 29 that stopped being a comfort for the El Sisi administration.