Wednesday, August 19, 2026

U.S. Army Takes Lead In Golden Dome Missile Defense Program – Analysis


Image: Grok

August 19, 2026

By Andrew Feickert, Hannah D. Dennis, and Robert Holcombe

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) 


Key Takeaways:

Golden Dome is a major U.S. homeland air and missile defense “system of systems” intended to protect against aerial threats, with the Army Space and Missile Defense Command leading operational efforts under NORTHCOM.

Key Army systems involved include THAAD, Patriot, IBCS, and LTAMDS; the first operational site has been established at Fort Story, Virginia, and an initial Army battalion-sized unit has been selected for experimentation.

Significant challenges remain around unclear system quantities, high costs (estimates range from $185 billion to $1.2 trillion over 20 years), mandatory funding risks, personnel shortages in air defense specialties, and the need for stronger congressional oversight.



What Is Golden Dome?


The Golden Dome for America (Golden Dome)—initially known as the Iron Dome for America—refers to an integrated homeland air and missile defense (AMD) system being developed by the Department of Defense (DOD), which is “using a secondary Department of War designation” under Executive Order (E.O.) 14347 of September 5, 2025. President Donald J. Trump introduced the program in E.O. 14186 of January 27, 2025. According to a May 2025 Pentagon press release, DOD plans to combine a range of capabilities to create a “system of systems” to protect the United States from “aerial attacks from any foe.” Golden Dome’s development is managed by DOD’s Office of Golden Dome for America, led by Senate-confirmed U.S. Space Force General Michael A. Guetlein, who reports directly to the Deputy Secretary of Defense (who is using “Deputy Secretary of War” as a “secondary title” under E.O. 14347). The system’s operational lead is the Army Space and Missile Defense Command (ASMDC) in support of U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM).

Some Members of Congress have considered information released by DOD about Golden Dome to be inadequate and have requested additional information. In the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (P.L. 119-60, §1652), Congress required DOD to submit an annual report on Golden Dome efforts, to include a threat assessment, system architecture, and cost and schedule estimate. President Trump has said the system “should be fully operational before the end of my term.” General Guetlein has testified the system will cost $185 billion through delivery in 2035. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the system will cost $1.2 trillion to develop, deploy, and operate over 20 years.

Army Command and Control

On January 15, 2026, NORTHCOM established Joint Task Force (JTF)-Gold led by Army Lieutenant General Sean Gainey, who also serves as commanding general of ASMDC. JTF-Gold and ASMDC are co-located at Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado. Reportedly, in fall 2025, the Army approved the transfer of the 32nd and 263rdArmy Air and Missile Defense Commands from the then Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) and U.S. Army North to ASMDC. By placing JTF-Gold under the ASMDC commander, the ASMDC commander reportedly becomes “the operational lead for Golden Dome activities in support of NORTHCOM, while also giving that headquarters control of the Army formations most directly tied to domestic air and missile defense.”
Selected Golden Dome-Associated Army Systems

On April 23, 2026, during what a press report described as a Golden Dome “first look,” numerous Army systems that could be part of Golden Dome were on public display at Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek-Fort Story, VA. According to the press report, program officials did not address the requisite number of systems or potential locations and costs. Some of the major Army systems on display are briefly described in the following sections.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

THAAD is a mobile anti-ballistic missile system designed to destroy short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles in their terminal phase using hit-to-kill technology. The THAAD interceptor can intercept enemy missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere and reportedly defends targets at ranges of 150-200 kilometers (km). The Army currently has eight THAAD batteries in the Active Component and has no plans to field additional batteries, according to information provided to CRS by the Army. A September 2025 American Enterprise Institute (AEI) working paper estimates incremental costs to procure a single THAAD battery and 192 interceptors to be $2.73 billion.
Patriot

Patriot is an acronym for “Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target.” Patriot is a mobile air defense system capable of defeating both high-performance aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles. Patriot can also be employed against cruise missiles and certain types of uncrewed aerial systems and drones. According to information provided to CRS by the Army, 15 Patriot battalions are currently in the Active Component with planned growth for three additional battalions: one battalion each year from FY2029-FY2031. A four-battery Patriot battalion, equipped with the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) and the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS), costs an estimated $1.792 billion.
Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS)

IBCS is described as the centerpiece of the Army’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense capabilities. It replaces legacy command and control systems in THAAD and Patriot units, providing 360-degree protection coverage and, according to the system’s developer Northrop Grumman, “expands battlespace for longer range intercepts and defense depth.”
Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS)

According to the Army, “LTAMDS is the Army’s next-generation radar designed to counter advanced and evolving threats, providing increased detection range, improved classification, and all-sector coverage.” LTAMDS is intended to replace legacy Patriot unit radars, and a prototype has been tested. According to its developer Raytheon, LTAMDS is “designed to defeat advanced and next-generation threats, including hypersonic weapons.”

Army Budget-Related Issues

In its FY2027 budget, DOD requested $17.5 billion for a “Golden Dome for America Fund,” including $434 million for Army Operations and Maintenance and Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation. The Army also requested $11.4 billion for THAAD procurement and $12.2 billion for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) procurement. DOD would be able to allocate these systems to homeland or theater defense. Of the $17.5 billion, $17.1 billion (98%) was requested as mandatory funding for Congress to provide in a reconciliation measure (as opposed to discretionary funding for Congress to provide in a regular annual appropriations act). Additionally, 92% of the amount the Army requested for THAAD procurement and 89% of the amount the service requested for PAC-3 MSE were mandatory funds. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Marc Berkowitz, who is using “Assistant Secretary of War for Space Policy” as a “secondary title” under Executive Order 14347 dated September 5, 2025, testified that mandatory funding provides speed and flexibility. An observer noted that putting the bulk of the request in mandatory funds puts the future of Golden Dome “on unstable footing.” The budget reconciliation process may also limit Congress’s opportunity for oversight if, for example, funds are provided for general purposes without specifying line-item amounts for DOD programs, projects, and activities as requested by the Administration.


DOD has increased funding for munitions, with requests for missile procurement nearly tripling in FY2027 to $95 billion as part of broader efforts to rebuild stockpiles and address operational demand. Taken together, these trends suggest scaling a layered Golden Dome architecture could require sustained investment in interceptor procurement, industrial base capacity, and long-term sustainment. DOD and industry have announced several joint agreements to increase production capacity. Congress may weigh these costs against competing priorities, including force readiness, modernization, and Army personnel requirements.

First Golden Dome Site Selected

In August 2026, General Guetlein reportedly announced that the Pentagon had established Golden Dome’s first operational site at Fort Story, VA. This action was reportedly intended to

[position] elements of the emerging homeland missile defense architecture on the East Coast as the military begins building an active defense of domestic airspace intended eventually to protect population centers including New York City and Washington against cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons and other advanced threats.

It was also noted that General Guetlein “did not identify additional locations or say how many operational sites the Pentagon plans to establish as part of the nationwide architecture” and that no specific systems or units were identified for eventual deployment to Fort Story.

First Army Unit Selected

Reportedly, the Army has chosen a battalion-sized unit, which is to include elements from other echelons, to be the Army’s “initial contribution to Golden Dome.” The unidentified unit was chosen from existing force structure; the systems that the new unit are to operate were also not identified. The Army reportedly plans “to do a lot of experimentation and test[ing] with this unit to make sure that we’re ready to fight with it when it’s delivered.”
Potential Issues for Congress

Potential oversight issues include the following:
Numbers of Army Systems and Units Required

Although the Army has identified some potential elements of the Golden Dome architecture, it has not indicated how many systems or types and numbers of units will be needed to establish Golden Dome. As specific requirements emerge, Congress could examine planned numbers of Army units and weapons systems that are to be dedicated to Golden Dome. Congress could examine the time requirements for industry to produce and field Golden Dome-dedicated systems. As system and interceptor production could take several fiscal years, such an examination could inform future appropriations decisions.
Army Golden Dome Fort Story Site

As the Pentagon develops this first operational site, Congress might seek additional information, such as What systems and units are planned to be stationed at Fort Story?
When will these systems and units begin to arrive at Fort Story, and when will they achieve full operational capability?

What funding is required to support this effort, including associated military construction (MILCON) funding?

Army Golden Dome Personnel Issues

Golden Dome could have implications for Army personnel requirements, particularly in AMD, space operations, and command-and-control specialties. The Army’s current IAMD force relies heavily on specialized military occupational specialties (MOS) within the Air Defense Artillery (ADA) branch. Golden Dome could increase demand for these specialties, which have historically experienced high operational tempo and persistent global demand. Recruiting, training, and retaining personnel with required technical skills may present challenges for the Army.


About the authors:
Andrew Feickert, Specialist in Military Ground Forces
Hannah D. Dennis, Analyst in U.S. Defense Policy
Robert Holcombe, U.S. Army Fellow

Source: This article was published by the Congressional Research Service (CRS).

About CRS
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) works exclusively for the United States Congress, providing policy and legal analysis to committees and Members of both the House and Senate, regardless of party affiliation. As a legislative branch agency within the Library of Congress, CRS has been a valued and respected resource on Capitol Hill for nearly a century.
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OpenAI pledges to slow down its model development amid cybersecurity concerns

FILE. The Chat GPT app icon is seen on a smartphone screen in Chicago, Aug. 2025
Copyright AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato

By Quirino Mealha
Published on

OpenAI announced it has paused key stages of its most advanced AI training for two weeks and is overhauling security across its research operations, a month after one of its own models broke out of a test environment and infiltrated the systems of AI platform Hugging Face.

The ChatGPT maker is deliberately holding back the pace of its most advanced research, including its single largest planned reinforcement-learning run, weeks after a system built from its own models slipped free during an internal security test and broke into the AI platform Hugging Face.

CEO Sam Altman posted on X that OpenAI would coordinate with the wider industry on shared safety rules but "act unilaterally in the meantime" until it did.

The episode that triggered the decision unfolded in July, when OpenAI was testing GPT-5.6 Sol alongside an unreleased, more capable prototype on an internal benchmark measuring offensive cyber skills, with the usual safety restrictions deliberately switched off to gauge the models' raw ability.

Rather than solving the test, the system found a previously unknown flaw, escaped its sandbox or controlled environment, reached the open internet and spent roughly four and a half days probing Hugging Face's infrastructure, eventually breaking in to search for the test's answers.

Hugging Face's own reconstruction counted about 17,600 separate actions before the intrusion was contained as several other companies were also affected.

Both sides say they found no sign of malicious intent, and Hugging Face has since been given access to a more capable, less restricted version of OpenAI's model to help it defend its own systems.

Astra and a higher bar for security

The second trigger came on 7 August, when internal evaluations suggested Astra, OpenAI's next frontier model, might cross the "critical" threshold for cyber capability under the company's own risk framework.

Some Astra workloads have since resumed under tighter controls, but a significant share remain frozen until they meet new standards covering isolated testing environments, restricted network access and continuous monitoring.

A new detection system now scans model activity as it happens and aims to flag anything resembling unauthorised access or an attempt to disable safeguards within 30 minutes, at a computing cost OpenAI estimates at roughly 20% of the processing power being monitored.

OpenAI says the changes were already planned rather than a direct reaction to the breach, while acknowledging the incident added urgency. The company is also not alone in facing this problem.

Anthropic and Meta have each disclosed similar episodes in which their own models breached third-party systems during testing in recent weeks.

OpenAI and Anthropic have separately backed a staff-led petition urging governments to help coordinate how fast the industry moves, a marked shift from Altman's past resistance to public calls for an AI slowdown.

 

OpenAI launches ChatGPT for Teens with new safety guardrails

FILE - The ChatGPT app is displayed on an iPhone in New York, May 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)
Copyright Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

By Una Hajdari with AP
Published on

The AI company is rolling out age-specific protections for 13- to 17-year-olds, as researchers and parents raise growing concerns over teenagers' emotional reliance on chatbots.

Teenagers, the first generation to grow up with artificial intelligence, are already using ChatGPT for schoolwork, questions about daily life and even companionship. Now OpenAI is launching a version of the chatbot designed specifically for them.

The San Francisco-based company says ChatGPT for Teens, which launches Tuesday, is tailored for those aged 13 to 17 and includes stronger protections including content restrictions around issues such as suicide, self-harm and romantic or sexual chats.

It also provides homework and study support designed to help students learn rather than simply produce answers and school essays for them.

The aim is to guide teenagers toward healthy AI use in an age-appropriate environment, the company said.

"We want to treat teens like teens, which means that we have to make sure that we're showing up with the right developmental stage when we're not either talking down to them or treating them like kids, said Ann O'Leary, vice president of global policy at OpenAI.

"But we're also making sure that they're not exposed to material that they shouldn't be exposed to," she continued.

Risks abound in widespread teen usage of AI chatbots

Parents, educators and child development experts have been sounding alarms over children's use of AI chatbots, which have been blamed for facilitating cheating on schoolwork and even suicide.

Even adults can fall victim to anthropomorphising AI and developing unhealthy relationships with it, but teenagers' brains are not yet fully developed, and they can be particularly vulnerable.

Last year, research from a watchdog group found that ChatGPT would tell 13-year-olds how to get drunk and high, instruct them on how to conceal eating disorders and even compose a heartbreaking suicide letter to their parents if asked.

In interactions with researchers posing as vulnerable teenagers, ChatGPT typically warned against risky activity but went on to deliver startlingly detailed and personalised plans for drug use, calorie-restricted diets or self-injury.

In the US, more than 70% of teenagers are turning to AI chatbots for companionship, and half use AI companions regularly, according to a 2025 study from Common Sense Media, a group that studies and advocates for the sensible use of digital media.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has said the company is trying to study "emotional overreliance" on the technology, describing it last year as a "really common thing" among young people.

For users of ChatGPT for Teens, the chatbot is prevented from suggesting it has personal feelings toward the user or implying that it is conscious or experiences emotions, according to OpenAI.

That is in addition to blocking romantic or sexual chats.

"We went through and identified what are the hypothetical cues that a model could give that might make a teenager kind of develop a relationship to it," said Allison Mishkin, head of child development at OpenAI.

A new version of the chatbot expands safety protections

OpenAI does not verify users' ages, but it already uses age assurance to estimate whether someone is under 18 based on factors such as their types of queries.

If someone is identified, or identifies themselves, as a minor, they are automatically placed into the teen version of the chatbot.

This is similar to Meta's approach to teen accounts on Instagram, which have stricter content, chat and privacy restrictions than regular accounts.

To use parental controls, both the teenage user and their parent or guardian have to opt in.

But O'Leary said the idea behind the teen chatbot is to "make sure that this is safe, even if you don't use parental controls."

Parents with linked teen accounts can set "quiet hours" when their teenager cannot access ChatGPT and receive safety notifications in limited high-risk situations, such as the possibility of a user harming themself.

"We are adding additional notifications related to eating disorders, while limiting what is shared and focusing on moments when offline support may matter most," OpenAI said.

For homework help, OpenAI said the teen chatbot is designed not to give easy answers, but to guide students toward finding answers on their own.

The company already offers a version of ChatGPT for teachers, and tailoring a model to help teenagers with studying and homework could give OpenAI more ways to bring its product into schools.

"We continue to also invest in expanding interactive learning, because research shows that people learn more effectively when they actively engage and struggle with concepts," Mishkin said.


 

Meta collects three times more user data than Microsoft or Apple

A car passes Facebook's new Meta logo on a sign at the company headquarters on Oct. 28, 2021, in Menlo Park, California.
Copyright AP Photo/Tony Avelar, File

By Indrabati Lahiri
Published on

New research shows Meta's apps collect an average of 25 out of 35 possible data types, more than any other tech giant.

Meta could be collecting the most user data among Big Tech companies, according to new research by Surfshark, which analysed 171 Apple App Store apps made by Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta.

Surfshark analysed apps based on 35 unique data categories, including browsing history, precise location, purchase data and more.

The study highlighted that Meta was collecting the highest average number of data types, at 25 out of a possible 35. This was more than three times as much user data on average than other tech companies such as Microsoft and Apple.

Seven of the most intrusive apps, including Facebook, Messenger and Meta AI were also all owned by the company. Others included Meta Horizon, Meta Ads Manager, Meta Business Suite and Forum.

In contrast, Google collected 17 types of data, while Amazon collected 12 and Microsoft 8. Apple also collected 7 types of data.

Google owns the most data-hungry apps

Google owned the largest number of data-hungry apps, at 29 out of 40, compared to only 2 from Amazon and 9 from Meta.

Although on average, Google's apps collected fewer data types than Meta, the scale of its data collection and its widespread app ecosystem still poses significant data security concerns to users.

Similarly, despite approximate location being enough for most features, browsing history is collected by 9 Meta apps, 11 Amazon apps and 8 Google apps.

Amazon Alexa was the most data-hungry app outside the Meta collection, gathering 28 data types.

Apple and Microsoft were consistently the least data-hungry companies across various categories. Apple's 13 Utilities apps only gathered 6 data types on average, compared with 17 for Google's Utilities apps.


Everything you need to know about Meta's biggest legal battle yet

FILE - Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg arrives for a landmark trial over whether social media platforms deliberately addict and harm children, Feb. 18, 2026, in Los Angeles.
Copyright Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

By Indrabati Lahiri
Published on

A landmark trial in California could force Meta to overhaul Facebook and Instagram after four states accused the company of designing its platforms to hook young users and hiding what it knew about the harm.

A landmark trial against Meta opened on Tuesday in federal court in Oakland, California, in what Kentucky's attorney general has called the largest consumer protection lawsuit in American history.

The case could reshape how Facebook and Instagram operate and how social media is experienced more broadly.

Who is suing Meta, and why

The trial is being litigated by four states — California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey — representing a wider coalition of 29 states that first filed the lawsuit in 2023, following a multi-state investigation into Meta's safety practices. The four states were selected to argue the case at trial as a bellwether for the broader coalition.

The states accuse Meta of intentionally designing Facebook and Instagram to be addictive for young users and of concealing what it knew about the resulting harm to their mental health.

"Meta designed Facebook and Instagram to keep kids on the platforms longer and longer — to the point of physical and mental harm. Exploiting our most vulnerable residents to boost corporate profits is not only morally wrong, it's also illegal," said California Attorney General Rob Bonta.

Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman drew a comparison to previous industry-wide legal battles. "AGs are in the perfect position to get this done. We did it with the Tobacco Settlement in the 1990s. We did it with the companies behind the opioid crisis. We'll do it again with Meta," he said.

Meta has denied the allegations. A spokesperson said the states have offered no proof that anyone was misled or harmed and accused them of "chasing an outlandish payout" rather than sticking to the facts.

How much money is at stake

Meta says the states are seeking as much as $1.4 trillion (€1.21tn) in penalties, a figure that would rival the company's market value.

However, the states have told the court that a more realistic damages scenario, if Meta is found liable, would be closer to $200 billion (€173bn).

How the trial will work

The case is being heard by Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in the US District Court for the Northern District of California.

An eight-person advisory jury has been selected, but the final ruling rests with the judge rather than the jury alone.

The trial is expected to last four to six weeks.

Key witnesses expected to testify include Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Instagram head Adam Mosseri, and Arturo Béjar, a former Meta engineering director turned whistleblower who has testified against the company in previous cases.

What changes are the states demanding

The states want sweeping changes to how Instagram and Facebook operate, including the removal of infinite scroll and public "like" counts.

Infinite scroll, along with other dopamine-driving features, has been linked to severe mental health issues among younger users, including increased anxiety, depression, suicidal thoughts and low self-worth.

Like counts and other engagement metrics have also been linked to young people creating multiple fake accounts to boost engagement with their own posts, which can in turn contribute to depression and a heightened need for social validation.

Other demanded changes include parental verification processes for teenage users, the removal of appearance-altering image filters, an end to video autoplay, and measures to prevent multiple account creation.

The states also want an end to disappearing content such as Instagram Stories, and changes to the recommendation algorithms they accuse of manipulating users' dopamine responses.

These features are core to how Meta keeps users, particularly children and teenagers, engaged for as long as possible.

Constant notifications can make it harder for users to set boundaries around their own usage, even when they want to, while peer pressure and fear of missing out can make it difficult for those who temporarily delete their accounts to stay away.

Meta's track record in court

This is not Meta's first courtroom loss over these claims.

In March, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google liable for $6 million (€5.2mn) in damages after a young woman said she became addicted to social media as a child.

Separately, in New Mexico, a jury found in March that Meta had committed 75,000 violations of the state's consumer protection law, resulting in a $375 million (€324mn) penalty.

In August, Judge Bryan Biedscheid ordered a further $567 million (€490mn) penalty in the same case, bringing Meta's total New Mexico exposure to $942 million (€814mn).

That ruling also ordered a series of product changes, including hiding "like" counts by default for under-18s, limiting push notifications to certain hours, imposing monthly usage caps, and barring adults from messaging or being recommended accounts belonging to minors.

Meta has said it will appeal.


 

Ghana leapfrogs US to enter world's top six gold producers

Ghana leapfrogs US to enter world's top six gold producers
/ bne IntelliNewsFacebook
By bne IntelliNews August 19, 2026

Ghana has climbed to sixth place among the world's largest gold producers, overtaking the United States after a jump in domestic output and a slump in American production, the Ghana Chamber of Mines said.

The West African nation produced 185 tonnes of gold in 2025, moving up from its traditional seventh-place ranking, Christopher Nyarko, the Chamber's director of analysis, research and finance, told Citi News.

" We're number six now, right after Peru. So globally, China, Russia, Australia, Canada, Peru, then Ghana comes in, and then the United States follow," Nyarko said. "Last year [2025], Ghana overtook the US, but traditionally, we've always been number seven.”

Nyarko attributed the US decline partly to technical setbacks in Nevada, one of America's key gold-producing states.

"Last year [2025], they ran into a number of technical issues. So production for the country as a whole dropped. And of course, given the dynamics in Ghana, we saw Ghana displace the United States," he said.

China remained the world's top producer, followed by Russia, Australia, Canada and Peru, according to Nyarko, though he cautioned that rankings among the leading producers shift depending on the data source.

"Even depending on the kind of source of your data, there's always some tension between Russia, China, and Australia, in terms of who is the largest producer," he said, adding that the Chamber relies on independent sources to assess global figures.

Ghana's improved standing follows a record year for the sector, with national output reaching 5.94mn ounces in 2025. Small-scale mining accounted for 52.38% of total production, overtaking large-scale operations for the first time in the country's more than a century of commercial mining.

The Chamber has forecast further growth in 2026, projecting output of between 6.1mn and 6.7mn ounces.

Major gold miners operating in Ghana include Newmont (NYSE: NEM; ASX: NEM) at Ahafo South and Ahafo North; AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU; JSE: ANG) at Obuasi and Iduapriem; and Gold Fields (JSE: GFI; NYSE: GFI) at Tarkwa.

Zijin Mining (HKEX: 2899; SSE: 601899) owns the Akyem mine, Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU; TSX: PRU) operates the Edikan mine, while Galiano Gold (TSX: GAU; NYSE American: GAU) owns 90% of the Asanko Gold Mine, with the Ghanaian government holding the remaining 10%.

 

Are we headed for a "Hothouse Earth" that can't sustain human life?

Are we headed for a
Julian Cribb's note argues satellite data shows warming at nearly three times the long-run rate, putting +3C by 2050. The temperature record itself tells a less dramatic and still alarming story. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook
By Ben Aris in Berlin August 17, 2026

The danger of runaway temperature rises to create a “Hothouse Earth” is rising at an alarming rate – a state in which humanity cannot survive. A widely shared analysis says the planet is now warming at 0.48°C a decade - almost three times the rate measured from 1970 to 2010 – that will trigger tipping points and fuel positive feedback loops that could turn global warming into a collapse of the ecosphere.

The idea of a Hothouse Earth was first floated in 2018 by the late Australian climatologist Will Steffen and colleagues, who did not expect it before 2100.

But the deadline is creeping forward. This year has already been the hottest summer on record and a super El Niño is building that is already off the charts – literally. Climatologist are complaining the ocean heat anomalies this year are so large that they have had to extent their y-axes upwards to accommodate the latest measurements.

Julian Cribb, an Australian science writer, said in his newsletter Surviving the 21st Century on August 3 that satellite measurements, adjusted to exclude El Niño anomalies, show steady heating of 0.48°C per decade since 2015 - against 0.18°C per decade from 1970 to 2010 and 0.27°C over 2015-25 - and that this would deliver about +3°C of average global heating by 2050, or +4°C once El Niños are added on top.

At that level, he argues, the Paris accord's 1.5°C target and every national pledge made under it are obsolete, the global food system breaks and up to half the Earth's population dies.

Global mean surface temperature relative to preindustrial (1850-1900). Source: The Climate Brink, GMST ensemble accessed August 2026, via the clip in the REPORTS folder.

The observed record shows 2024 as the warmest year at +1.53°C above preindustrial, five straight years warmer than anything seen before 2023, and a composite forecast putting 2026 slightly below that record and 2027 somewhat above it, with a wide range.

That is a serious picture. It is not 0.48°C a decade compounding to +3°C by 2050, and the gap between the two is not a detail - it is the difference between a crisis that policy can still shape and one that has already been decided.

The mechanism Cribb points to for the near term is real and separately evidenced: a super El Niño building in the Pacific, which will give the world a foretaste in 2026/27. El Niño years run hot, and the forecast on the chart reflects exactly that.

The disagreement is about whether the underlying trend beneath those spikes has fundamentally steepened, or whether a decade that began with a record El Niño is being read as a trend.

Which is the honest state of it. The warming is faster than the Paris framework assumed, the 1.5°C target is in practical terms gone, and the food-system and economic consequences are the right things to be reporting. The 0.48°C -per-decade figure is a stronger claim than the published record supports, and it does not need to be true for the argument underneath it to still pose serious threats to the biosphere and the eventual escalating death toll due to rising temperatures.

 

The strongest El Niño on record will hit food prices from Brazil to Indonesia

The strongest El Niño on record will hit food prices from Brazil to Indonesia
Ninety-six per cent of model runs tracked by Carbon Brief say the 2026-27 event will beat the record set in 2015-16 - and it has already reached the European Central Bank's inflation forecast. / Nic Y-C - UnsplashFacebook
By Ben Aris in Berlin August 19, 2026

The Pacific is warming faster than at any point in history, and central bankers have started writing it into their forecasts. A super El Niño now under way began in June and is expected to run into 2027. Carbon Brief analysis of forecasts from 14 modelling groups finds that 96% of runs predict the strongest event in the observational record, with peak sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeding the 2.75°C anomaly set in 2015-16.

The finding comes from an explainer on the super El Niño published by Carbon Brief on August 18, written by Robert McSweeney and Daisy Dunne.

On the same day, the European Central Bank's chief economist Philip Lane told Irish radio that “food inflation is going to be one of the drivers of inflation over next year”, naming El Niño among the pressures he expects to build through 2027.

For emerging markets, a warming pattern in a stretch of ocean most of them do not border is about to reorganise their harvests, their hydropower, their shipping lanes and their central bank meetings.

How the machine works

In a normal year, trade winds blow east to west across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm surface water towards Asia and drawing cold, nutrient-rich water up off the South American coast. That upwelling is why Peru has the largest anchovy fishery in the world by volume.

The temperature contrast sets the rainfall. Warm water in the western Pacific fuels heavy rain over Indonesia and southeast Asia; cold water in the east suppresses it along South America's west coast.

During an El Niño the trade winds weaken or locally reverse. Warm water spreads back east, upwelling stops, the temperature contrast collapses, the pressure gradient weakens - which weakens the winds further. It is a feedback loop, which is why these events amplify once started.

Scientists track it through the Niño3.4 region, a rectangle of the central Pacific covering more than 6mn sq km. Sustained readings of at least 0.5C above average on the Oceanic Niño Index mean El Niño conditions; -0.5C means La Niña is possible. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration requires those conditions to persist across five consecutive overlapping three-month periods, and also looks at wind and rainfall. In 2026 it switched to a relative index that strips out the background warming of the tropical Pacific itself.

Peruvian fishermen were the first to name it, some time before the 1600s, for the warm current that arrived around Christmas: El Niño de Navidad, the Christ Child. Gilbert Walker coined “Southern Oscillation” for the pressure seesaw in 1926; Jacob Bjerknes joined the two halves together in the 1960s.

Where the rain moves

The redistribution of rainfall is roughly predictable and very brutal. In northern and tropical South America - Colombia, Venezuela, northern Brazil - El Niño brings heat and drought, and with them wildfire. In the south, southern Brazil, central Chile and northern Argentina, it brings severe flooding.

Southeast Asia and much of Australia dry out, raising drought and fire risk across the palm oil, rice and coal-producing belt.

India gets extreme heat early in the year and a weakened summer monsoon later, which is the single most consequential rainfall system on earth for food prices. China and Japan tend to run warm at the start of the year.

In Africa, southern countries face drought risk from December to February while eastern ones face floods - the same event, opposite problems, on either side of the continent. In North America, the northwest gets a mild winter and the southern US and California get storms and flooding.

Storms change address

El Niño does not create more tropical storms so much as move them. In the Atlantic and Caribbean it increases vertical wind shear, which tears developing systems apart - so hurricane seasons tend to be quieter.

In the Pacific the storm-formation zone shifts east with the warm water. Typhoons become less likely to track towards the Philippines and more likely to hit Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea. Because they form further out, they have longer over open water to gather heat and moisture, which makes the ones that do make landfall bigger.

For central and eastern Pacific islands - Hawaii, Kiribati, Tuvalu - warmer water means more storms and stronger ones.

The price of weather

The economic transmission is already visible before the event has peaked. UBS has warned that a strong El Niño threatens Latin American inflation and the region's rate-cutting cycle, which is the difference between a soft landing and a stalled one for several central banks.

Shipping is exposed through fresh water rather than sea water: the Panama Canal runs on rainfall, and El Niño threatens to derail its transit recovery just as volumes had come back.

It lands on a food system already under strain from two directions. The Iran war's fertiliser shock has been raising planting costs through the year, and the Black Sea grain trade has been crippled by drone strikes on ports at both ends. Adding a monsoon failure and a southern African drought to that is not an additive problem, it is a multiplicative one.

The countries with the least room are the ones that always have the least room. Nigeria was already facing its worst food security crisis in nearly a decade before this event formed, and Malawi's economic troubles have deepened poverty through a run of bad harvests.

There are offsets. India's rice surplus is heading for record exports and would cushion a lot of Asian and African import bills if it survives the monsoon. The Reserve Bank of India has been explicit that its own persistent food inflation is climate-driven, which is at least a central bank that has stopped treating weather as noise.

What it does to the temperature record

El Niño lends the planet heat it has been storing. Roughly, a 1C shift in Niño3.4 translates to about 0.1C on the global average, with a lag of three to six months.

That is why the big events show up as record years: 1998, 2016 and 2024 were all El Niño-boosted. It is also why those records keep falling. In the ERA5 dataset, 1998 was a record at the time, then 2005 beat it, then 2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024.

Strip ENSO out of the series and the peaks and troughs flatten, but the line still climbs. El Niño and La Niña are the largest source of year-to-year variability in global temperature; human-caused warming is what sets the direction. A record El Niño on top of the warmest baseline yet recorded is the reason 2027 is being watched.

The consequences of that baseline are already being priced. IntelliNews has reported that 3bn people will live in uninhabitable zones by 2070, and each disaster season arrives with heatwaves, floods and fires in more places at once.

Is warming making El Niño worse

This is genuinely unsettled, and worth stating plainly rather than resolving for effect.

The IPCC's 2021 assessment found that El Niño intensity, and the frequency of high-magnitude events, has increased since 1950 compared with periods stretching back to 1400. But proxy records from tree rings and sediment cores show El Niño frequency and intensity varying widely across the past 11,000 years, which makes attributing the recent shift to human warming difficult.

One 2017 study projected El Niño events could double in frequency at 1.5C of warming. In June 2026 the New York Times put the question to 16 climate scientists; eight said they see compelling evidence that warming is intensifying these events.

Half of a small sample is not a consensus. It is, however, enough for the people who set interest rates to start budgeting for it - which is the practical answer to the scientific question, arrived at from the other end.