Saturday, May 23, 2020

FROM VIRTUALLY ALL OTHER INDUSTRIES
IN THE ECONOMY BECAUSE THE
PARTICIPANTS, THEMSELVES, CONTROL
THE RULES OF COMPETITION

The political system is a private industry
 that sets its own rules 

Most people think of politics as its own unique public
institution governed by impartial laws dating back to
the founders. Not so. Politics is, in fact, an industry—
most of whose key players are private, gain-seeking
organizations. The industry competes, just like other
industries, to grow and accumulate resources and
influence for itself. The key players work to advance their
self-interests, not necessarily the public interest.

It’s important to recognize that much of what constitutes
today’s political system has no basis in the Constitution.
As our system evolved, the parties—and a larger political
industrial complex that surrounds them—established and
optimized a set of rules and practices that enhanced their
power and diminished our democracy. These changes—
often created behind closed doors and largely invisible
to the average citizen—continue to take their toll at both
the federal and the state levels.

The politics industry is different from virtually all other
industries in the economy because the participants,
themselves, control the rules of competition. There is
no truly independent regulation of politics that protects
the public interest. Free from regulation and oversight,
the duopoly does exactly what one would fear: The rivals
distort the rules of competition in their favor. Examples
of this includes controlling access to the general election
ballot, partisan gerrymandering, and the Hastert Rule,
which puts partisan concerns above legislating for the
public interest.

These biased rules and practices have many competitive
consequences, including a sharp decline in legislation
passed, the near extinction of moderates in the Senate
and the House, declining bipartisan support for laws
enacted, and many others.

Citizens should expect four outcomes from
a healthy political system—which currently
delivers none of them

1. Practical and effective solutions to solve our
nation’s important problems and expand citizen
opportunity. Solutions are policies that address
important problems or expand opportunities for
citizens. Solutions actually work and make things
better in practice. Effective solutions address reality,
not ideology. Practical and sustainable solutions are
not uni-dimensional, but nuanced, and they integrate
the range of relevant and important considerations
involved in virtually every good policy. Solutions weigh
and balance points of view across constituencies,
and make sound tradeoffs in integrating them. Real
solutions almost always require compromise and
bipartisanship. While the importance of solutions
seems obvious, solutions are almost non-existent in
America’s political system today.

2. Action. Legislation that matters is legislation that
is actually enacted and implemented. Yet the vast
majority of promises made by candidates and political
leaders in today’s system never get acted upon.
Little serious legislation is even advanced, much less
passed.

3. Reasonably broad-based buy-in by the citizenry
over time. Good solutions should be able to gain
over time reasonably broad-based acceptance and
consensus across the population. While there will
never be 100% support for any policy, true solutions
(which most often involve bipartisanship) are those  
that can be accepted over time by a range of
constituents across the political spectrum.

For this to happen, political leadership is required
and must—at times—be ahead of popular opinion
(that’s why it’s called leadership). At its best, political
competition should educate, unite, and inspire
citizens, rather than dividing them. Today, politics is
dividing us, not bringing us together.

4. Respect the Constitution and the rights of all
citizens. In our democracy, good solutions reflect
the rights and interests of all Americans, rather than
simplistic majority rule. This can sometimes make
achieving political solutions more complicated, but
is part of what has made America the remarkable
country it has become.

These desired outcomes seem self-evident, yet many
citizens have lost sight of what we want from our political
system. This has created a vacuum that has allowed
political actors to define success to fit their own purposes
instead of public purposes, and mislead citizens in the
process.

The structure of the politics industry has created
unhealthy competition that fails to advance the
public interest

The nature of competition in any industry—and the
degree to which it meets the needs of customers—
depends on its underlying structure. To understand the
failure of politics, we can employ the same tools used to
study competition in other fields.

What is the structure of the politics industry? It is a
textbook example of a duopoly, an industry dominated by
two entrenched players. 

Around the two major parties,the Democrats and the
 Republicans, has arisen what we call the “political industrial 
complex,” an interconnected set of entities that support
 the duopoly. 

These include special interests, donors (particularly “big money”),
pollsters, consultants, partisan think tanks, the media,
lobbyists, and others. The political industrial complex is
big business. And virtually all the players in the political
industrial complex are connected to one side of the
duopoly or the other—the right or the left—which has
contributed to failed competition.

In healthy competition, industry actors would be
competing to deliver the desired outcomes for
customers—fellow citizens—and be held accountable
for results. Political rivals who fail to serve the public
would be replaced by new competitors who do. Instead,
today’s political competition is unhealthy competition in
which rivals are entrenched, insulated from the pressures
to serve customers better, and protected from new
competition. The political industrial complex expands and
grows, but the nation fails to progress.

The structure of the politics industry

How have political actors distorted competition to serve
their interests, not the public interest? There are four
essential elements:

1. Who the duopoly serves. A political system is
supposed to serve the public interest, so all citizens
should be its customers. Instead, customers in
the politics industry can be divided into five major
segments based on how they engage with the
industry: partisan primary voters, special interests,
donors, average voters, and non-voters. The parties
prioritize the customers that most advance their
interests through the two currencies of politics: votes,
money, or both. The most powerful customers are
partisan primary voters, special interests, and donors.
Average voters and current non-voters, the majority
of citizens, have little or no influence on policy or
outcomes.

The parties do pay some attention to the average
voter in order to increase the turnout of their base,
depress the turnout of the other side’s base, and
capture “swing” voters. But since average voters have
only two choices in most general elections, parties
appeal to them on the margin. The parties do not
compete for average voters by delivering outcomes
for their benefit, but rather by seeking to be a little
less disliked than—or slightly preferred to—the other
party. Parties don’t need to deliver solutions, but only
convince average voters to choose them as the “lesser
of two evils.” In a normal industry, ignoring such a
large group of customers would make a competitor
vulnerable to new competition. But in the politics
industry, as we will discuss, the barriers to entry are
very high, and therefore, new competition does not
emerge.

Recent research supports these conclusions about
where customer power actually lies. In 2014,
researchers at Princeton and Northwestern University
examined congressional action on 1,779 policy
issues. Their sad finding: “When the preferences of
economic elites and the stands of organized interest
groups are controlled for, the preferences of the
average American appear to have only a minuscule,
near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon
public policy.”

by KM Gehl - ‎2017 - ‎
As co-chair of the multiyear, non-partisan U.S. Competitiveness Project at Harvard. Business School over the past five years, it became clear to him that the .

Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election

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Trump to pull U.S. out of Open Skies treaty, leaves New START in limbo

Dave Lawler AXIOS  
May 21, 2020 - World 

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser / Axios

The U.S. is moving to withdraw from Open Skies, a 1992 treaty that allows NATO countries and Russia to surveil one another from the air to prevent the risk of military conflict.

Why it matters: This is the third major international defense agreement President Trump has abandoned, following the Iran nuclear deal and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty. The fate of another highly consequential treaty, New START, remains in the balance.

How it happened: "Trump administration officials and some conservative lawmakers have long argued that the Russians have used the Open Skies accord to gather intelligence on U.S. sites while restricting access for Western overflights of Russian territory," per WSJ.

What to watch: New START, the last treaty constraining the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, is due to expire in February.


Marshall Billingslea, Trump's arms control envoy, announced talks with Russia today aimed at bringing China into a new trilateral agreement.

But he expressed skepticism that Russia could be trusted to comply with any treaty, and he would not discuss the idea of extending New START before the Feb. 5 deadline without Chinese participation.

We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion. If we have to, we will, but we sure would like to avoid it," Billingslea said in a discussion hosted by the Hudson Institute.

Trump could take the lid off the world's largest nuclear stockpiles


Dave Lawler AXIOS Apr 30, 2020 - World

There are three truly existential threats to humanity: pandemics, climate change and nuclear weapons.

Why it matters: COVID-19 has rightfully absorbed the world's attention and will for months to come. But the last treaty constraining the world’s largest nuclear arsenals is set to expire in nine months.

Where things stand: The Trump administration has expressed little urgency over the looming expiration of New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), which comes two weeks after the next presidential inauguration on Feb. 5.

The treaty limits the long-range nuclear weapons programs of the U.S. and Russia, and it's verified through regular inspections.

It was signed in 2010 to replace the 1991 START and could be extended for up to five years by mutual assent (congressional approval is not necessary).

Russia had previously called for renegotiation, but it's now urging for an extension without preconditions.

The U.S. wants to negotiate a new deal instead, but time is running out.

The Trump administration has three primary concerns about extending New START, according to Frank Klotz, the former U.S. Department of Energy undersecretary for nuclear security (2014–2018).

It doesn’t cover tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has more short-range, lower-yield weapons and more ways to deliver them.

It doesn’t cover the new nuclear delivery systems Russia is currently developing.
It doesn’t constrain China, which is significantly expanding its nuclear capabilities.

The third point looms largest for the Trump administration.
The administration is concerned that extending New START would undermine its hopes of a trilateral deal involving China, Foreign Policy reports, citing a State Department document.
Marshall Billingslea, Trump's newly appointed special envoy for arms control, has been tasked with striking a new deal that restricts both of America's "great power" competitors.

Between the lines: China has no intention and little incentive to join such a deal, Rose Gottemoeller, the lead U.S. negotiator on New START, said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Arms Control Association.

By the numbers: The U.S. and Russia together have an estimated 91% of the world’s nuclear warheads, and both countries have 20 times as many as China.

Gottemoeller agrees that China should be brought into the arms control framework and that there are thorny issues to be discussed around tactical nuclear weapons and missile defense systems (a top Russian concern).

But she contends that they can’t possibly be negotiated before February — particularly amid a pandemic and U.S. general election.

On the one hand: Some China hawks see little reason to agree to an arms control deal that does not involve America’s biggest geopolitical adversary.

On the other:
Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, says New START provides “continuous stability in an increasingly uncertain world."
The worst-case scenario, Mullen says, is an "arms race that none of us can afford.”


https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/05/trump-to-pull-us-out-of-third-arms.html

TRUMP IS DOING PUTIN'S BIDDING BY WITHDRAWING FROM THESE NUCLEAR DETERRENT AGREEMENTS
 PUTIN AND RUSSIA HATE (ALL VIOLATIONS ARE RECENT UNDER PUTIN) 
Trump to pull US out of third arms control deal

The Open Skies Treaty allows Russia and western nations to conduct observation flights



Julian Borger in Washington
Thu 21 May 2020 THE GUARDIAN
 

Donald Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House on Thursday. Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty ImagesThe US has declared its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty, which is intended to reduce the risk of war by allowing Russia and western nations to conduct observation flights over each other’s territory.

Washington informed the other 33 parties to the treaty of its intention to deliver a formal six-month notice of withdrawal on Friday, accusing Russia of violations.

“I think we have a very good relationship with Russia, but Russia didn’t adhere to the treaty, and so until they adhere to the treaty, we will pull out,” Donald Trump told reporters. He added: “There’s a very good chance we’ll make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together.”

In a written statement, the secretary of state Mike Pompeo said the US could reconsider its withdrawal during the six month notice period “should Russia return to full compliance with the Treaty”. Moscow denies being in violation of the agreement.

By starting the six-month notice period now, the administration ensures that - even if Donald Trump loses the election in November – the US will have left the treaty before a Biden administration takes office.

“The timing of the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw is clearly tied to the political calendar,” said Bob Menendez, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “By rushing this abrupt withdrawal, it is clear the Trump Administration is attempting to bind a future administration from participation in this longstanding and valuable treaty for our nation.”

America’s European allies are keen to keep the treaty going. They have benefited from the more than 1,500 overflights carried out under the OST, allowing them to observe Russian military movements, and see it as a remaining element of international cohesion and transparency.

“The writing has been on the wall for a long time,” a European diplomat said, adding it was “still disappointing”.

The OST is the third arms control agreement Trump has left. He took the US out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019. There are fears for the future of the last treaty limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons, New Start, which is due to expire in February next year, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the US has signed (observing a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests) but not ratified.

It is unclear how Russia will respond to US withdrawal. They will now be able to fly over US bases in Europe but the US will no longer be allowed to overfly Russia.

Under the 2020 defence spending act, the administration is supposed to explain to Congress how leaving OST serves US security interests and give assurances that Washington has consulted its partners, 120 days before serving formal notice of withdrawal.

“Reckless deal wrecking and the collapse of US leadership continues,” Kingston Rief, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association said.

“The treaty benefits US and European security. Our allies value it and don’t want us to leave. It has been an important tool for responding to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. This is a propaganda coup for Moscow.”

The US has complained about curbs that Moscow has imposed on overflights that have violated the accord. Russia limited the flight time of observation flights over the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and set up an exclusion corridor along the border of the Russian-occupied regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Europe must prepare for US exit from vital Russia treaty, former Nato generals warn
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/europe-must-prepare-for-us-exit-from-vital-russia-treaty-former-nato-generals-warn

“Realize the Russians were cheating,” Tim Morrison, who was briefly the top arms control official in the Trump White House, said on Twitter. “They were misusing the treaty against the US – as senior military and civilian leaders warned. Withdrawing denies Putin a collection tool – this is not a win for him.”

Russia’s foreign ministry rejected allegations of infringements as “groundless” on Thursday and said Moscow had an “alternate plan” in the event of US withdrawal, but did not provide details.

None of the other parties believed that the Russian infringements were enough to jeopardise the treaty.

US partners were informed of the decision on Thursday with calls from the national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, the defence secretary, Mark Esper and the Pentagon’s acting undersecretary for policy, James Anderson.

“This is insane,” was the immediate tweeted reaction from Michael Hayden, a former CIA director.

In a joint statement earlier this month, a group of 16 retired military commanders and defence ministers said: “Throughout its operation, the treaty has increased military transparency and predictability, helped build trust and confidence, and enhanced mutual understanding.”

On Thursday, German foreign minister Heiko Maas called on the US to “reconsider”.

“I deeply regret the announcement,” Maas said, adding that “we will work with our partners to urge the US to consider its decision”.

He also said that Germany - along with France, Poland and Britain - had repeatedly explained to Washington that the difficulties on the Russian side in recent years “did not justify” pulling out.


U.S. pulls out of Open Skies treaty, Trump's latest treaty withdrawal


Steve HollandJonathan Landay

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States said on Thursday it will withdraw from the 35-nation Open Skies treaty allowing unarmed surveillance flights over member countries, the Trump administration’s latest move to pull the country out of a major global treaty.

The administration said Russia has repeatedly violated the pact’s terms. Senior officials said the pullout will formally take place in six months, but President Donald Trump held out the possibility that Russia could come into compliance.

“I think we have a very good relationship with Russia. But Russia didn’t adhere to the treaty. So until they adhere, we will pull out,” Trump told reporters.
RELATED COVERAGE
Russia says U.S. withdrawal from Open Skies treaty will affect all members: RIA

His decision deepens doubts about whether Washington will seek to extend the 2010 New START accord, which imposes the last remaining limits on U.S. and Russian deployments of strategic nuclear arms to no more than 1,550 each. It expires in February.

Trump has repeatedly called for China to join the United States and Russia in talks on an arms control accord to replace New START. China, estimated to have about 300 nuclear weapons, has repeatedly rejected Trump’s proposal.

NATO allies and other countries like Ukraine had pressed Washington not to leave the Open Skies Treaty, whose unarmed overflights are aimed at bolstering confidence and providing members forewarning of surprise military attacks.

In Moscow, RIA state news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying that Russia has not violated the treaty and nothing prevents the continuation of talks on technical issues that Washington calls violations.

The Open Skies decision followed a six-month review in which officials found multiple instances of Russian refusal to comply with the treaty.

Last year, the administration pulled the United States out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.

A senior administration said U.S. officials had begun talks in recent days with Russian officials about a new round of nuclear arms negotiations to “begin crafting the next generation of nuclear arms control measures.”

Trump’s arms control negotiator mounted a full-blown defense of the administration’s arms control policies, focusing on the president’s proposal that China join the United States and Russia on a replacement for New START.

“We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion. If we have to, we will, but we sure would like to avoid it,” Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea told the Hudson Institute think tank.

The Open Skies treaty, proposed by U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower in 1955, was signed in 1992 and took effect in 2002. The idea is to let member nations make surveillance flights over each other’s countries to build trust.


The officials cited a years-long effort by Russia to violate the terms, such as by restricting U.S. overflights of Russia’s neighbor Georgia and the Russian military enclave in Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast.

In addition, they said Russia has been using its own overflights of American and European territory to identify critical U.S. infrastructure for potential attack in time of war.

Some experts worry that a U.S. exit from the treaty, which will halt Russian overflights of the United States, could prompt Moscow’s withdrawal, which would end overflights of Russia by the remaining members, weakening European security at a time that Russian-backed separatists are holding parts of Ukraine and Georgia.

Trump’s decision to leave the treaty is “premature and irresponsible,” said Daryl Kimball, head of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.



Reporting By Steve Holland and Jonathan Landay; additional reporting by Doina Chiacu and Arshad Mohammed in Washington and Andrey Ostroukh in Moscow; editing by David Gregorio and Steve Orlofsky

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/05/trump-to-pull-u.html



TRUMP IS DOING PUTIN'S BIDDING BY WITHDRAWING FROM THESE NUCLEAR DETERRENT AGREEMENTS
 PUTIN AND RUSSIA HATE (ALL VIOLATIONS ARE RECENT UNDER PUTIN) 
Google plans to stop making A.I. tools for oil and gas firms

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 21 2020
Sam Shead@SAM_L_SHEAD

CNBC

KEY POINTS

Google has pledged to stop making customized A.I. tools for oil and gas firms.


A Greenpeace report highlighted how U.S. tech giants are helping oil and gas firms find fossil fuels around the world. he report was titled “Tech Companies are Helping Big Oil Profit from Climate Destruction.”



Oil production in Azerbaijan Vostok

Google has pledged to stop building customized artificial intelligence (AI) tools that help oil and gas firms to extract fossil fuels worldwide.

The story was reported by Medium’s tech publication, OneZero, following an interview with The Cube that was published on YouTube.

A Greenpeace report on Tuesday highlighted how Google, Microsoft, and Amazon use AI and warehouse servers to help the likes of ShellBP, and ExxonMobil to locate and retrieve oil and gas deposits from the earth.

A Google spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that the company “will not ... build custom AI/ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry.”

Google Cloud took approximately $65 million from oil and gas companies in 2019, the spokesperson said, adding that it accounts for less than 1% of total Google Cloud revenues. Given Google Cloud’s relatively small slice of the oil and gas market, it wasn’t a huge stretch for the company to vow not to compete on AI/ML.

In total, the oil and gas sector is expected to spend $1.3 billion on cloud computing in 2020, according to data from HG Insights. “Google Cloud is only a small percentage of this aggregate spend,” said the Google spokesperson.

Greenpeace applauded Google’s decision. “While Google still has legacy contracts with oil and gas firms that we hope they will terminate, we welcome Google’s move to no longer create custom solutions for upstream oil and gas extraction,” said Elizabeth Jardim, senior corporate campaigner for Greenpeace USA.

“We hope Microsoft and Amazon will quickly follow with commitments to end AI partnerships with oil and gas firms, as these contracts contradict their stated climate goals and accelerate the climate crisis.”

Google has a reputation for being one of the greenest large tech firms in the world. Unlike other tech giants, it has been carbon neutral since 2007 by using strategies like buying renewable energy to match its use of non-renewable energy.

Amazon has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2040, while Microsoft has pledged to be carbon negative by 2030. 
“Despite the biggest cloud companies’ commitments to address climate change, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all have connections to some of the world’s dirtiest oil companies for the explicit purpose of getting more oil and gas out of the ground and onto the market faster and cheaper,” the Greenpeace report reads.

The Greenpeace report — titled “How Tech Companies are Helping Big Oil Profit from Climate Destruction” — calls out Microsoft as the tech giant with the most oil and gas contracts, claiming that it is “offering AI capabilities in all phases of oil production.”

Microsoft responded to the report in a blog post that said it was encouraged by the growing number of energy sector commitments to transitioning to cleaner energy and lowering carbon emissions.

“We agree that the world confronts an urgent carbon problem and we all must do more and move faster to reach a net zero-carbon future,” Microsoft wrote in the post.

“The reality is that the world’s energy currently comes from fossil fuels and, as standards of living around the world improve, the world will require even more energy. That makes realizing a zero-carbon future one of the most complex transitions in human history.”

Meanwhile, Amazon has contracts largely in the mid and downstream phases of oil production, the report said, adding that Amazon focuses on pipelines, shipping, and storage for oil and gas companies.

“The Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud is the largest in the world, the virtual home to millions of websites, and is now being used by oil and gas firms to get oil to market more efficiently,” Greenpeace said.

“Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos recently stepped up his company’s ambition on climate, announcing the Climate Pledge and his $10 billion Earth Fund. These efforts unfortunately ignore Amazon’s ongoing support of the fossil fuel sector with AI technologies.”

Amazon declined to comment but it pointed to a website that states Amazon believes the energy industry should have access to the same technologies as other industries.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Google’s pledge came ahead of the release of the report from Greenpeace.

Google drops future AI oil extraction projects


Orion Rummler

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Google will no longer develop new artificial intelligence tools to help oil and gas companies extract crude, the company announced Tuesday.


Why it matters: The tech giant is breaking away from Microsoft and Amazon, both of which have also developed AI in recent years to expedite oil production and make services more efficient for companies like Chevron and GE Oil & Gas. Google's 2018 contract with Total was in place as of February, a Total spokesperson confirmed to Axios at the time.

What they're saying:
Google Cloud "will not, for instance, build custom AI/ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry," a Google spokesperson told Axios on Tuesday. OneZero first reported the move.

Yes, but:
The company will honor its current contracts. The spokesperson declined to say if Google's work with Total would continue, noting that customer contracts are confidential.

Total did not respond to a request for comment.

Google's 2019 revenue from oil and gas came out to roughly $65 million, which accounted for less than 1% of the company's total revenue in that period, the spokesperson said.


On renewable energy, Google says it is applying algorithms from its own data centers to improve efficiency in buildings.

Of note:
Google's announcement dropped alongside a Greenpeace report released Tuesday that detailed cloud computing and AI contracts between Google, Microsoft and Amazon and oil and gas companies.

Between the lines: Microsoft and Amazon have said that working with the oil industry isn’t at odds with their climate commitments. In some cases, they're working with Big Oil on clean energy plans — like BP giving AWS renewable power.

What we're watching via Axios' Amy Harder: It's too soon to tell whether Google proves to be an outlier or an early indicator of a trend, but one thing is clear now: Environmentalists will be ramping up the pressure on other tech giants and companies in other sectors to sever ties with oil and gas firms now that they've had success with one.

Go deeper: Climate activists target Big Tech over fossil fuel work

Google Says It Will Not Build Custom A.I. for Oil and Gas Extraction


A Greenpeace report details Silicon Valley’s ties to Big Oil — and spurs Google to take a step toward opting out



Brian Merchant
May 19 ·


Photo: SOPA Images/Getty Images

After a year of weathering criticism from tech workers, politicians, and activists over its oil industry contracts, Google has stated that it will not create new custom A.I. or machine learning algorithms that would help the oil and gas industry enhance its ability to extract fossil fuels.

“We will not … build custom A.I./ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry,” a Google spokesperson said in a statement provided to OneZero. The declaration comes in response to a new Greenpeace report that details 14 separate contracts between three of the biggest tech companies — Google, Amazon, and Microsoft — and major oil firms.

Over the last two years, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Amazon Web Services have inked deals with firms like Exxon, Chevron, and Total to use A.I. and automation to accelerate fossil fuel exploration and extraction, linking the last generation of the world’s richest, most powerful companies with the newest. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have built web portals to entice oil and gas clients, and each company has set up divisions aimed at winning business from the oil industry. With a surfeit of disorganized, backlogged data, tapering production rates, and deep financial reserves, major oil corporations are attractive clients to cloud service providers.

After reports emerged last year that tech companies were courting oil firms, tech employees and activists pushed the tech companies to adopt more stringent climate policies. A significant climate change accountability movement emerged at Amazon, and smaller ones followed at Microsoft and Google, where workers walked off the job to participate in a climate strike. Google, in particular, has prided itself on its aggressive adoption of clean energy. In 2018, the company announced it had hit a hallmark of “buying enough renewable energy to match 100 percent of Google’s global annual electricity use.” But the tech-oil deals continued apace. The same week Microsoft made a public pledge to go “carbon negative,” the company also sponsored an oil conference in Saudi Arabia. Amazon drew headlines for its own Climate Pledge, which committed the company to becoming carbon neutral by 2040, but it also joined an “Accelerate Oil” initiative two weeks later.

Image: Greenpeace

Greenpeace is hoping that its new report, Oil in the Cloud: How Tech Companies are Helping Big Oil Profit from Climate Destruction, will draw renewed attention and scrutiny on the relationship between these two mammoth industries.

The report finds that “Microsoft appears to have the most contracts with oil and gas companies” and concludes that the tech company “can never truly achieve its recently announced ‘carbon negative’ goal while continuing to aid the oil and gas sector with exploration and production.” A single contract between Microsoft and ExxonMobil to accelerate production in the Permian Basin “could lead to emissions on the scale of 21% of Microsoft’s annual carbon footprint,” the report states. (Microsoft did not respond to a request for comment.)


“We will not … build custom A.I./ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry.”

“For us, it’s pretty simple,” Greenpeace researcher and report co-author Elizabeth Jardim told OneZero. “Accelerating oil extraction is not an application tech companies should be using A.I. for at all.”

The report points out that none of the companies count emissions generated by the A.I. and automation technologies they sell to the oil and gas industry when tallying companywide emissions for their sustainability goals. “I don’t think the tech companies know how to measure the scale of these projects,” Jardim says, “because it doesn’t fall under their typical accountability frameworks. I don’t know if the emissions are being measured at all.”

When asked about the contrast between these contracts and their own clean energy goals, tech companies often claim to be supplying oil and gas companies with the technology they need to transition to cleaner energies. “We’re going to work hard for energy companies,” Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said at the announcement of its Climate Pledge. “And our view is we’re going to work very hard to make sure that as they transition they have the best tools possible.”

The Greenpeace report finds that the tech companies are in fact almost never supplying transition tools. “Amazon has also issued a policy on its contracts with oil and gas, stating it will provide cloud services to the energy industry to help them accelerate the development of their renewable energy business,” the report states. “However, this does not line up with the nature of many of the machine-learning contracts we examined. Indeed, AWS appears to have only one example in which its capabilities are advancing renewable energy.”

When reached for comment, Amazon directed OneZero to its Positions page, which states: “The energy industry should have access to the same technologies as other industries. We will continue to provide cloud services to companies in the energy industry to make their legacy businesses less carbon intensive and help them accelerate development of renewable energy businesses.”

After facing sustained criticism as a result of their partnerships, the report shows that, in the spring of 2020, Amazon and Microsoft changed the language on their public-facing websites to deemphasize the focus on “oil and gas” services in lieu of “energy” services. In each case, the actual A.I. and data services advertised stayed about the same.




Image: AWS



Image: AWS

The report suggests that Google has done more than either Amazon or Microsoft to slow its contracts with the oil and gas industry. In 2018, Google hired a former BP executive, Darryl Willis, to be its VP of oil, gas, and energy at Google Cloud. But after Willis left for Microsoft a year later, the report notes, Google appears to have closed down the entire business unit.

In a recent interview with The Cube, Will Grannis, managing director of the office of the CTO at Google Cloud, said that when it comes to the oil and gas industry, “We don’t develop custom A.I./ML solutions that facilitate upstream extraction.”

In a statement provided to OneZero, a Google spokesperson elaborated on the policy, which had not previously been made public:

Google Cloud is a general purpose infrastructure and data processing platform. We therefore have companies from several industries using this platform to exit their data centers and run their IT systems on the Cloud. But we will not, for instance, build custom A.I./ML algorithms to facilitate upstream extraction in the oil and gas industry. In 2019, our revenue from oil and gas was roughly $65M, which accounts for less than 1% of total Google Cloud revenues in that same period and decreased by 11% when overall Cloud revenue grew 53%. Further, according to HG Insights data, IT spend from the Oil & Gas sector was roughly $113B in 2019. But spend on cloud services in the Oil & Gas segment is only estimated to reach $1.3B in 2020 and Google Cloud is only a small percentage of this aggregate spend. We are continuing to see great traction with renewable energy providers, many of whom inherently understand the benefits of the cloud in advancing their goals including AES Corporation, Veolia, and Simple Energy. We are building and sharing custom A.I. Models and Algorithms with several renewable energy companies and are also taking algorithms that we use to make Google’s own data centers highly efficient and providing them to make buildings more energy efficient for instance.

Google still has a number of contracts on the books with oil companies — like a 2018 deal with Anadarko, one of the U.S.’s largest exploration and production companies. A Google spokesperson told OneZero that those contracts will be honored. The spokesperson declined to provide more specifics about how the apparently new policy will be implemented, or what the guidelines will be. Though the wording remains vague, Google is the only major tech company thus far to officially disavow building A.I. tools for enhancing oil extraction.


“Accelerating oil extraction is not an application tech companies should be using A.I. for at all.”

Greenpeace’s Jardim indicated that Google was also one of the two tech companies willing to engage in a constructive dialogue about the new report. “Whenever we do reports with these companies we keep it confidential,” Jardim said. “I will say that we had productive conversations with both Google and Microsoft.”

Google’s apparent policy change is still only a small step toward true tech sector divestment from oil and gas — time will tell whether this a genuine shift in its business or linguistic maneuvering. Either way, there’s much to be done before Silicon Valley might be weaned off its new oil habit.

“We’re calling for a moratorium on new oil and gas contracts,” Jardim said. “Then, we’d ask that they assess and phase out the contracts that are most problematic for the climate.” Ultimately, Greenpeace hopes this fledgling tech company alliance will be severed altogether. “We’re hoping that they distance themselves from the oil and gas sector entirely.”

Update: This piece has been updated with new figures from the Oil in the Cloud: How Tech Companies are Helping Big Oil Profit from Climate Destruction report.



4 days ago - Cloud computing and AI software aid the discovery, extraction, ... Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are often held up as climate leaders for the sizable ... Any new oil and gas projects or infrastructure are very likely inconsistent with the Paris Climate goals. ... Fred Wasden, Asset of the Future Manager, Shell ...

Pew Research Center

AMERICANS WHEN REALISTIC ARE SOCIALISTS*

Positive Economic Views Plummet; Support for Government Aid Crosses Party Lines

Most expect problems from COVID-19 to last six months or longer

How we did this
APRIL 21, 2020
Amid record unemployment claims and the disruption of commercial activity caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak, the public’s assessments of the U.S. economy have deteriorated with extraordinary speed and severity. Just 23% of Americans now rate economic conditions in the country as excellent or good, down sharply from 57% at the start of the year.

Most now say the economy is in either only fair (38%) or poor (38%) shape. In January, just 9% of Americans said economic conditions were poor.

Related: About Half of Lower-Income Americans Report Household Job or Wage Loss Due to COVID-19

As the public confronts a grim new economic reality, there is not only overwhelming support for the massive economic aid package passed last month by President Donald Trump and Congress, but also widespread belief that an additional aid package will be needed.

Nearly nine-in-ten U.S. adults (88%) say the $2 trillion economic aid package passed in March was the right thing to do, including identical majorities of Republicans and Democrats (89% each). More than three-quarters (77%) think it will be necessary for the president and Congress to pass legislation providing additional economic assistance.

Majorities of Americans say the aid package enacted last month will do a great deal or a fair amount to help a range of actors, including large businesses (77%), small businesses (71%), state and local governments (67%) and unemployed people (68%).

However, only about half (49%) expect it to benefit self-employed people, while 46% think it will help their own household a great deal or fair amount. In part, this reflects the fact that lower-income adults are far more likely than more affluent people to say the aid package will benefit them. A 59% majority of those in lower-income households believe the federal aid will help them, compared with just 22% in upper-income households. (To analyze these questions further, visit the Election News Pathways data tool.)

The new national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted April 7 to 12 among 4,917 U.S. adults on the Center’s American Trends Panel, finds that most Americans believe the economic problems arising from the coronavirus outbreak will persist for months to come. A majority (71%) says the economic problems resulting from the outbreak will last for at least six months, including 39% who say they will last a year or more. Just 29% expect these problems to last six months or less.

Yet the public does expect some improvement over time from today’s dire economic conditions. A majority (55%) expects that economic conditions in the country as a whole will be better a year from now than they are today, while 22% say they will be worse and 22% expect conditions to be about the same as they are now.

The survey finds that the public’s reactions to the recently passed economic aid package differ markedly from views of the economic stimulus plan enacted during the early months of Barack Obama’s presidency. At that time, views of the economy were even more negative than they are today, with 68% saying economic conditions were poor (38% say that today).

In March 2009, 56% said the $800 billion stimulus plan put forth by Barack Obama and passed by Congress was a good idea; about a third (35%) said it was a bad idea. While the question about the economic package passed in March differs somewhat, 88% of the public says it was the right thing to do.

In contrast to the extensive bipartisan support for coronavirus aid, support for the 2009 stimulus aid package was divided along partisan lines: 79% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said it was a good idea, but just 28% of Republicans and Republican leaners said the same.
Coronavirus outbreak leads to much quicker decline in economic ratings than during previous downturns

The dramatic plunge in positive assessments of the national economy as a result of the coronavirus outbreak is steeper than declines in economic ratings seen during the last two recessions. Before they took a sudden negative turn, economic attitudes were historically positive. Just three months ago, the public’s views of the national economy were more positive than they had been at any point over the past 20 years.

This is very different from the Great Recession, which began in December 2007. Even before the recession and subsequent financial crisis, the public’s views of the national economy were not all that positive. They declined more gradually in 2007-2008 and remained very negative for the next several years.



After the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, views of the economy slipped precipitously, but far less rapidly than they have during the coronavirus outbreak. While public views of the economy prior to the economic trouble of the early 2000s were even brighter than they were prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, it took considerably longer for perceptions to fall as far as they already have in the first three months of 2020.

While the public takes a far more negative view of the economy, opinions about economic conditions are far less divided by income and partisanship than they were prior to the crisis.

In January, those living in upper-income households were 30 percentage points more likely than those living in lower-income households to say economic conditions in the country were excellent or good (73% vs. 43%). Today, there are no significant differences across income tiers in positive ratings of the national economy; only about a quarter in each income category rates conditions as excellent or good.

The gap in positive economic ratings between Republicans and Democrats has decreased from 42 percentage points at the start of the year to 26 points today. Republicans remain somewhat more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in excellent or good shape (37% vs. 11%).

Consistent with the patterns across income tiers overall, differences in economic ratings by income among both Republicans and Democrats are now much smaller than they were in January.
Who will benefit from the federal aid package?

There is general agreement between Republicans and Democrats that the federal aid package will help large and small businesses, state and local governments and unemployed people. Still, the shares who think the aid package will help most groups tend to be larger among Republicans than Democrats.

Overall, 83% of Republicans and Republican leaners think the federal government’s aid package will help small businesses either a great deal (32%) or a fair amount (51%). A smaller majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (60%) think small businesses will get at least a fair amount of help from the aid. Larger majorities of Republicans than Democrats also think state and local governments (77% vs. 59%) and unemployed people (80% vs. 57%) will get at least a fair amount of help from the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak.

By contrast, Democrats (81%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (74%) to think large businesses will receive at least a fair amount of help from the federal government; the share of Democrats who think large corporations will get a great deal of help from the aid package is nearly double the share of Republicans who say this (45% vs. 23%).

About six-in-ten Republicans (61%) think self-employed people will benefit at least a fair amount from the federal aid. Democrats are less sure: 38% say it will help self-employed people a great deal or a fair amount, while 61% say it will help them not too much or not at all.

Both Republicans and Democrats see their own household as less likely to be helped by the federal aid than large and small businesses, state and local governments and unemployed people. Still, partisan differences extend to personal assessments.

Among Republicans, 51% think the aid will help their household at least a fair amount, while about as many (49%) say it will help them not too much or not at all. Democrats are less hopeful: 40% say it will help their household a great deal or fair amount, compared with 59% who think it won’t help much or at all.

There also are significant differences by household income in the shares who expect to be helped by the COVID-19 federal aid package.

A majority of Americans in lower-income households (59%) think the federal response will help them either a great deal (25%) or a fair amount (34%). About half (48%) of middle-income earners think the aid package will help them at least a fair amount. Upper-income earners are far less likely to say this: Just 22% expect the federal response to help their own household.

Republicans and Republican leaners are more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to expect their household to be helped by the aid package across all income tiers.
Many say economy will be better a year from now

Although Americans have become much more negative about the current state of the economy, 55% expect that things will be better a year from now. Just 22% think they will be worse; another 22% think economic conditions will be about the same as they are today.

Younger people are much less optimistic that economic conditions will improve compared with older Americans. Nearly seven-in-ten of those ages 65 and older (69%) think the economy will be better in a year. By contrast, fewer than half (42%) of those ages 18 to 29 think things will be better, while 34% expect conditions to be worse in a year. While younger people were slightly less optimistic about the future economy even prior to the current downturn, the age gap is now substantially wider than it was in January.

Adults with a college degree and those with higher incomes are more likely to expect the economy to be better in a year than those with lower levels of education and income. In January, those with a college degree were less likely than those without a bachelor’s degree to say economic conditions would improve.

In addition, white adults (62%) are more likely than black (38%) and Hispanic (40%) adults to say conditions will be better in a year.

Some of largest differences in economic outlook are between Republicans and Democrats, though this partisan gap is somewhat narrower than it was in January. Today, 72% of Republicans and Republican leaners think conditions will be better in a year; relatively few think they will be worse (12%) or the same (15%). Democrats and Democratic leaners are more divided in their views: 41% expect the economy to be better, while 30% think it will be worse and 28% think it will be about the same.
How long will economic problems from the COVID-19 outbreak last?

While a narrow majority expects overall economic conditions to be better in a year, the public also thinks the negative economic impacts resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will persist for some time.

About seven-in-ten (71%) say the economic problems resulting from the outbreak will last more than six months, including 39% who say that they will last a year or more. Just 9% think the economic problems resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will pass in three months, while 19% expect the problems to last four to six months.

College graduates are more likely than those without a degree to anticipate longer-term negative economic effects of the outbreak – with 79% of college grads vs. 67% of those without a degree expecting problems to last six months or longer.

About three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic leaners (78%) think economic problems will last more than six months, including 48% who think they will last a year or more. A narrower majority of Republicans (62%) think the problems will last more than six months, and just 28% expect them to last a year or more.

Within both parties, those with higher levels of education are more likely than those with lower levels of education to expect the negative impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy to last at least a year.

These differences are particularly pronounced among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Democrats, those with at least a college degree are 15 percentage points more likely than those with no degree to say that the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak will last at least a year (58% compared with 43%).

A third of college-educated Republicans think the economic problems resulting from the outbreak will last a year or more, compared with 26% of Republicans with no college degree.
Will another federal aid package be necessary?

At this stage of the outbreak, 77% of the public thinks it will be necessary for the president and Congress to pass another bill to provide more economic assistance for the country.

While clear majorities in both parties say additional economic assistance will be necessary, there is less bipartisan unanimity in views about a follow-up bill than about the previous aid package. While nearly nine-in-ten Democrats say another bill will be necessary, a narrower majority of Republicans (66%) say the same.

Within the GOP, moderates and liberals (74%) are more likely than conservatives (61%) to say an additional aid package will be necessary. And liberal Democrats are slightly more likely than conservative and moderate Democrats to think another bill will be necessary (92% vs. 83%).
Personal financial ratings little changed

Even as national economic ratings have plummeted, personal financial assessments have been far more stable.

In the current survey, 47% describe their own personal financial situation as excellent or good, compared with slightly more (52%) saying it is only fair or poor. Last summer, about as many described their finances as excellent or good (50%) as said they were only fair or poor (49%).

Upper-income and middle-income households have seen a sharper decline in their personal financial ratings than lower-income households. Since last summer, the share rating their own finances as excellent or good is down 13 percentage points among middle-income households and down 11 points among upper-income households; these ratings are down just 3 points among lower-income households. Still, very large differences remain in personal ratings across income tiers: Higher earners are almost three times as likely as lower earners to say their finances are in excellent or good shape (75% vs. 27%).

Previous telephone polling has found that personal economic ratings tend to change less dramatically than national ratings. For instance, during the Great Recession, assessments of the national economy showed more dramatic movement and became more intensely negative than personal ratings.

While the decline in overall personal financial ratings has been modest, a new analysis of the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on family finances finds that 43% say someone in their household has taken a pay cut or lost a job as a result of the outbreak.

In part, the difference in these two measures is tied to the fact that those who already rated their own personal financial situation as only fair or poor in August of 2019 are significantly more likely to say their household has experienced wage cuts or job loss as a result of the coronavirus outbreak than those who rated their finances more positively last summer.

The public’s expectations for the direction of their future financial situation is also little changed: 42% now expect their personal financial situation to be better a year from now than it is today, while 46% say it will be about the same and 12% expect it to be worse.

* IN THE USA SOCIALISM IS DEFINED AS ANY FORM OF GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT IN THE ECONOMY, AKA COLLECTIVISM, COLLECTIVISTS, STATISTS, CENTRAL PLANNING ETC.