Monday, July 28, 2025

The Cost Of Silence: Why Global Inaction Is Betraying The People Of Sudan – OpEd



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Growing instability and conflict pivots continue to exacerbate catastrophe across Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain uninterested in negotiating after three years of fighting, despite influencing “the largest displacement crisis in the world” as well as extensive famine. Whether a peaceful transition to a civilian government is the best course remains unclear, but the Sudanese people still deserve more solutions during this period of struggle. 


Following the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir’s government in 2019, SAF General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his followers claimed that Sudanese Prime Minister Khamil al-Taib Idris had a constitutional right to lead in Bashir’s place, allied with the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated National Congress Party (NCP). As of 2023, the US has sanctioned the SAF for detainee torture, humanitarian aid interference, civilian mistreatment, starvation and chemical weapon proliferation. RFS leader Mohamed “Hamedti” Hamdan Daglo, considering these ongoing abuses, has emphasized that Sudan deserves its own civil administration, as life there is becoming increasingly difficult.

This infighting has gone on to displace over 14 million people, 3.3 million of whom have inadvertently threatened neighboring country stability by fleeing across the Sudanese tri-border region into Libya, Chad and Egypt. While RSF elements have recently taken partial control of the Libya-Sudan boundary, eager to stop illicit traffickingvia its roots, worsening tensions between Israel and Iran only further complicate their effort. If Sudanese allies go on ignoring ties between the SAF and Tehran, bloodshed from all parties could extend as far as the Red Sea, leaving every nation in the Horn of Africa a victim to violence. 

Additional donations or sanctions alone, therefore, may not deliver Sudan what peace it deserves. The African Union, US and UK must use more active diplomatic measures to bring al-Burham and Hemedti together as soon as possible. If these leaders cannot find common ground soon, hope for the Sudanese is all but uncertain. 

  • The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy, where this article was published.

Fernando Carvajal

Fernando Carvajal served on the UN Security Council Panel of Experts on Yemen from April 2017 to March 2019 as a regions and armed groups expert. He has nearly 20 years of experience conducting fieldwork in Yemen and is a specialist in Yemeni politics and tribal relations.

India: Obstinate Maoists, Stubborn Government – Analysis


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By Deepak Kumar Nayak


On July 20, 2025, four to five unidentified cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) killed two villagers, Kawasi Joga (55) of Chutwai village and Mangalu Kursam (50) of Bada Tarrem, with sharp-edged weapons, after reportedly dragging the duo from their homes under the Tarrem Police Station limits in the Bijapur District of the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh. It is said that, due to the joint action of the Centre and the state against Naxalism, the Maoists repeatedly vent their anger by killing innocent villagers on the pretext of they being ‘informers’. The Jagargunda Committee of the Maoists claimed responsibility for the attack.

On July 16, 2025, a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) General Duty Constable (CT/GD), Parneswar Koch of Kokrajhar, Assam, was killed in a gunfight between the Security Forces (SFs) and the Maoists in the Birhordera Forest under the Gomia Police Station area in the Bokaro District of Jharkhand. SFs also gunned down two Maoists during the encounter. The identities of the killed Maoists are being ascertained.

On July 16, 2025, Kawasi Hunga (38), a resident of Perampalli village, was reportedly attacked and killed with sharp weapons by 4 to 5 unidentified CPI-Maoist cadres in Perampalli village under Usoor Police Station limits in Bijapur District. According to a preliminary investigation, the attackers, dressed in plain clothes, barged into the village around midnight and accused Hunga of working as a ‘police informer’ before killing him. 

These recent killings orchestrated by the Maoists are a demonstration of the inflexible stand the rebels have adopted, notwithstanding their demands for peace talks and a ceasefire. 

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 60 persons (35 civilians and 25 SF personnel) have been killed by the Maoists in the Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected districts across the country in the current year, thus far (data till July 27, 2025). During the corresponding period of 2024, 61 persons (44 civilians and 17 SF personnel) were killed, while another 40 (36 civilians and four SFs) were killed in the remaining period of 2024. Significantly, at least 156 persons (111 civilians and 45 SFs) have been killed by the rebels since January 20, 2024, when Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah proclaimed that the entire country would be 100 percent free from the Naxal problem within the following three years.


During the period from January 20, 2024, to July 27, 2025, the Maoists have engineered at least 78 incidents of explosion (58 in Chhattisgarh, 12 in Jharkhand, five in Telangana, two in Odisha, and one in Maharashtra), carried out at least 13 arson-related incidents (seven in Jharkhand, five in Chhattisgarh, and one in Andhra Pradesh), and exchanged fire with the SFs on at least 176 occasions (108 in Chhattisgarh, 25 in Jharkhand, 12 in Madhya Pradesh, 15 in Odisha, eight in Maharashtra, three in Telangana, two in Andhra Pradesh, and one each in Bihar, Karnataka, and Kerala), and called for a bandh (general shut-down) on at least eight occasions across the country.

Interestingly, following the killing of the ‘general secretary’ of the party (the highest executive post), a ‘Politburo member,’ ‘Central Committee (CC)’ member, and a Central Military Commission (CMC)’ member, Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basava Raju, on May 21, 2025, in an operation in Narayanpur, Chhattisgarh, the CPI-Maoist ‘CC’ on May 28, 2025, again proposed that it was ready for peace talks on the condition that the Government halt its anti-Maoist operations in the region and stop the establishment of new armed forces’ camps in various States, including Chhattisgarh. The Maoist statement read, “We are always ready for peace talks in the interest of the public. Therefore, on this occasion, we are proposing to create a positive atmosphere for peace talks in front of the Central and State governments.”

Without receiving any positive response from the central government, the rebels repeated their appeal on April 2, 2025, April 18, 2025, and April 25, 2025, to stop anti-Naxalite operations (‘Operation Black Forest,’ also called ‘Operation Kagar’), to call back SFs, and to suspend the campaign for a month, after which the Maoists would hold peace talks when a favourable environment had been created. Significantly, the leaders of different political parties, people’s organisations, and rights groups have staged demonstrations on different occasions in Telangana in support of immediate ‘talks’.

Meanwhile, according to a July 4, 2025, report, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), following the interrogation of a CPI-Maoist operative, Rajesh Deogam, of the West Singhbhum District of Jharkhand, found that the overground workers (OGW) and sympathisers of the Maoists’ central zone have been actively involved in extortion and harbouring cadres of the banned organisation. NIA found that Deogam had been actively supporting the criminal conspiracy of the proscribed organisation to commit terrorist acts, organise meetings, and extort money from contractors and traders. The case was related to the recovery of a large amount of money and various incriminating materials pertaining to key CPI-Maoist member Misir Besra in March 2024.

An unnamed senior security official privy to the development claimed, “Between January-February, the central zone of the CPI (Maoist) held a meeting where it was decided to intensify extortion, arms collection and other activities to revive the Maoists. We have the anticipation that following pressure from the security agencies, the ultras would try to revive the organisation by any means.”

The meeting, according to the official, took place in the jungles of Chhattisgarh. Some of the OGWs and sympathisers who were present at the meeting had been instructed to handle arms, collect ‘levy’ (extortion money), and harbour cadres of the banned organisation. The central zone of the Maoists involves areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh.

Another report on July 17, 2025, indicated that the extremists were now operating in smaller groups, with many of their top leaders shifting their bases to isolated places to evade arrest or gunfights with forces. Reports indicate that stronger Maoist units have shifted their base to the inaccessible terrain of south Bastar, abandoning their traditional attires/uniforms in order to avoid detection. Officials familiar with the development disclosed that, following the neutralisation of Basava Raju, larger groups of Maoists were instructed by the top leadership to reconstruct themselves into smaller units and shift their bases to the Indravati Park Area to avoid aerial surveillance and detection. The tough terrain of the park area, which to date lacks forward operating bases and roads, makes it difficult for the security forces to launch frequent operations, providing a safe haven to the outlaws. Additionally, the forested region is, believed to have a heavy concentration of pressure-activated IEDs placed by the Maoists with the aim of inflicting grievous harm on any advancing parties of security personnel, making it a risky affair for the latter. The other notable change in the strategy relates to the mingling of Maoist cadres with the local residents. According to reports, the increased presence of Maoists in plain clothes among locals has been observed lately by intelligence units.

A July 16, 2025, report revealed that the proscribed CPI-Maoist has admitted to heavy losses amid intensified anti-insurgency operations and called for a flexible guerrilla war by mobilising the broad masses in the class struggle to counter the campaign against insurgents. The CPI-Maoist’s ‘CC’ circulated a 22-page document dated June 23, 2025, among its cadres and sympathisers, acknowledging the killing of 357 Maoists over the last year. Further, the Maoist document analysed the reasons for the debacle and blamed improper implementation of the committee’s secret method of functioning, and the rules and tactics of guerrilla war.

The document read, “The guerrilla war goes as per the tactics like ‘breeze’ and ‘flowing water.’ Like the breeze is to be in constant mobility instead of staying in one place. The meaning of flowing like water is to not climb the hills that come in its way, not to fight decisive wars with the enemy that is many times stronger like water flowing from slopes, but to implement tactics to save its strength.”

It reiterated the ‘CC’ and ‘Politburo’ circulars released in February and August 2004, that the Maoists must spread out into wider areas, not confining themselves to small ones.

The document read, further, “We must be decentralised, class struggle must be made in coordination of legal-illegal, open-secret forms of struggle and organisation. The attempts of the government to eliminate the movement before March 31, 2026, should be defeated by strictly following the tactics of the central committee and Politburo, including strengthening the party and protecting the PLGA [People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army].”

The CPI-Maoist added that it was mounting pressure on the government through civil society groups in 9-10 states to stop anti-insurgent operations. The ‘CC’ called upon the party cadres and people to observe “Martyrs’ Week” from July 28 to August 3 in their areas of influence across the country. 

Despite these tactical realignments, on the other hand, on June 29, 2025, reiterating the resolve to make India free of Maoists by March 31, 2026, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah ruled out talks with the extremists’ while they still held weapons. Making it clear that there would be no talks with Maoists holding guns, he asked the LWEs to give up arms and join the national mainstream. Stating that the Maoists who want to surrender are free to do so, UHM Shah thus declared, “Shun violence, give up arms and surrender. If you don’t surrender, we have resolved that by March 31, 2026, we will end Naxalism from this country.”

Indeed, taking a tough stand against the rebels, since January 20, 2024, the SFs have neutralised at least 573 Naxalites (465 in Chhattisgarh, 35 in Jharkhand, 28 in Maharashtra, 15 in Telangana, 14 in Madhya Pradesh, nine in Odisha, four in Andhra Pradesh, two in Bihar, and one in Karnataka) across the country, so far (data till July 27, 2025). 

Meanwhile, since January 20, 2024, at least 713 Naxalites have been arrested (data till July 27, 2025). Mounting pressure also resulted in the surrender of at least 1,417 Naxalites across the country.

Amidst all this, the top leadership of the rebels has been systematically decimated over the past years. According to an SATP estimate, some 30 of 43 members of the Maoist ‘CC’ and ‘Politburo’ have now been neutralized – arrested, killed, or surrendered – with Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basava Raju, the party’s ‘chief,’ killed on May 21, 2025, in the Narayanpur District by the Chhattisgarh Police, the latest among these.

Besides, the CPI-Maoist’s 22-page document dated June 23, 2025, admitted, “The 357 Maoists killed included 136 women. Four of them died of ill health and improper treatment, one in an accident, 80 in “fake encounters”, and 269 in encirclement attacks. Four of those killed were members of the Central Committee, including Basavaraju, 16 state committee rank leaders, 17 People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) members, six from people’s organisational wings, and 34 common people. The details of 36 people are not available.”

The target set by the Centre to eliminate Naxalism by March 31, 2026, appears attainable, but Maoist adaptations are already in play. The purpose of the rebels will no longer be to advance their revolution in the foreseeable future, but to survive beyond the target date, even as heavy handed SF operations create a pool of resentment among at least some segments of the population. It remains to be seen whether the aggressive coordinated approach against the CPI-Maoist in all the Naxalite-affected states fashions the comprehensive victory the Centre seeks, or leaves behind a volatile detritus that may rise in rebellion once again, as it has done before.

  • Deepak Kumar Nayak
    Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
SATP

SATP, or the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) publishes the South Asia Intelligence Review, and is a product of The Institute for Conflict Management, a non-Profit Society set up in 1997 in New Delhi, and which is committed to the continuous evaluation and resolution of problems of internal security in South Asia. The Institute was set up on the initiative of, and is presently headed by, its President, Mr. K.P.S. Gill, IPS (Retd).

The New Frontline: How Geoeconomics Is Rewriting Global Power Dynamics – Analysis


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When European leaders met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2025, the diplomacy was extravagant, but the underlying tensions could not be ignored. The EU cited a record €360 billion trade deficit with China, condemned Beijing for distorting global markets with massive industrial subsidies, and threatened tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing subsequently signalled tight retaliatory curbs on key rare earth exports in response. It was more than an appropriate diplomatic spat; it was the new war. No tanks, no missiles, no other form but trade tariffs, investment bans, or tech controls.

Welcome to geoeconomic war.

Geoeconomic warfare, in its simplest terms, is the use of economic means — sanctions, trade restrictions, cyberattacks, investment screening — to achieve national security objectives. This symbolises the transition from troops to diplomats — from bullets and bombs to currencies, data, and supply chains. This is less direct than kinetic war, but no less disruptive.

Recent Geoeconomic Flashpoints

A flow of geoeconomic confrontations has unfolded in the last few years. Russia has endured an 18th round of Western sanctions in 2024 over the Ukraine invasion, with various restrictions on LNG shipping and other key tech exports. China faced sanctions for allegedly sending dual-use items to Russia’s military effort. Beijing, in response, used its dominant position over critical minerals like gallium and germanium, essential for global chip production. If anything, these economic weapons caused greater harm than conventional war, cutting off economies from each other, diverting trade routes, and disaggregating global systems.

The US also ramped up its economic war on China with new semiconductor trade restrictions, expansion and AI firms using advanced GPUs blocklist in 2025. In response, China targeted US carmakers in mainland China, retaliating against earlier punitive tariffs on agricultural goods. 

The US, and especially under a new administration, has imposed broad “reciprocal tariffs” since early 2025, a significant directional change toward protectionism. Beginning on April 2, 2025, there was an initial 10% tariff on all imports into the US from around the world, with a further increased rate on more than 60 economies that were identified as the “worst offenders” or where there was a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US. Those are sanctions established under various legal authorities, such as the IEEPA, with the aim of eliminating trade imbalances and employing economic leverage.


The US effective tariff rate has skyrocketed to the highest level in more than a century, evoking the protectionism of the 1930s. Exporters to the US from countries including the European Union, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Cambodia now face tariffs that are 20% to almost 50% higher than before. Supporters have welcomed a more aggressive use of tariffs as a weapon in an ongoing effort to address domestic and international trade imbalances. However, opponents warn of a disastrous global trade war in which many of America’s key trading partners have already issued countermeasures and threaten to issue more, even further breaking up global supply chains.pastedGraphic.png

The Role of Multinational Corporations (MNCs)

In this new style of warfare, multinational corporations (MNCs) have emerged to serve as both targets and tools. Apple, Samsung and TSMC are caught between the US demand to “de-risk” from China and the Chinese insistence on local compliance. Hostility towards Tesla through audits or data law crackdowns in China is not merely regulatory friction: instead, it has strategic intent behind it. Corporations are now in a game where national loyalty can matter more than market logic.

Reconfiguring Alliances and Power

Geoeconomic warfare also reconfigures global alliances. The Global South that was once lured by aid is now being wooed with infrastructure and access to markets. New configurations of power around BRICS, the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, and alternatives to SWIFT — like China’s CIPS — are changing flows of power around the world. The West faces a threat from China not through any conventional war but through a geoeconomic counter-system.

Impact on Bangladesh: Opportunity and Risk

For a country like Bangladesh, this new order brings opportunity and Danger. Bangladesh: Balancing on a Tightrope as the New hub of the Indo-Pacific and takes advantage of Chinese infrastructure investment, such as ports and energy projects, within the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, its geography makes it a vital ground of US interest in its Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Too much reliance on Chinese financing could lead to debt dependency. Recently disruption in the global shipping lane Houthi attack in the Red Sea, has directly affected our garments sector from exporting to Europe. 

The global shift in tariffs is also seen in Bangladesh. The US has recently declared a 35% so-called “reciprocal tariff” on imports from Bangladesh, effective from August 1, 2025. This was a decrease against an earlier 37% tariff on Bangladeshi apparel exports, which had been imposed on April 1 2015, resulting in an effective increase on the previous average of 15%. Even in conjunction with the existing 54% tariff on Bangladeshi goods, this could mean a total tariff burden exceeding 50%.

The basis for such a high tariff, contested by officials from Bangladesh, is a USTR (US Trade Representative), which puts the overall combined tariff, para-tariff and non-tariff barriers against US imports from Bangladesh at 74%. In Bangladesh, this decision has raised significant concerns, especially for the ready-made garment (RMG) industry that makes up more than 80% of the whole country’s exports and provides millions of jobs, especially for women.

The US is the largest destination for Bangladesh garments. This puts Bangladesh at a special disadvantage. Bangladeshi officials and industry leaders are in talks with the US to soften the blow. However, the measure is widely viewed as a geoeconomic coercion, possibly aimed at Bangladesh for its growing economic ties with China and its non-signing of some fundamental security deals with the US. These retaliatory tariffs would also lower Bangladesh’s GDP growth, warned the Asian Development Bank (ADB) 

How the small states survive this geoeconomic Storm?

  1. Strategic diversification is key. Countries such as Bangladesh reducing over-reliance on any one power. Trade, investment, and technology partnerships would have to be made between China, the West, the Middle East, and ASEAN.
  1. The digital and financial sovereignty. With cyberattacks and payment network being targeted, countries have to now invest more in R&D to build their own secure infrastructure and regional alternatives.
  1. Value chain repositioning is vital. To avoid becoming collateral damage in low-end economic wars, Bangladesh needs to climb up the value chain quickly from basic textiles to design, tech, and services.

The days of military empires are over, and economic coalitions are on the rise. The control of flows of chips, data, energy, capital has now passed into the hands of those who control flows. It is an invincible Battlefield.

As the Fog of the new kind of hybrid conflict gets thicken, The wisest strategy would be

In the age of economic warfare, sovereignty does not belong to the strongest; it belongs to the most adaptable

Sources



Md. Towhid Bin Shafi

Md. Towhid Bin Shafi is a policy analyst and academic based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. He holds a Master’s in International Relations and an MBA, with a research focus on global governance, economic diplomacy, and security studies. He currently serves as Director of Administration and Execution at the Canadian University of Bangladesh, where he is also involved in Student affairs initiatives. He has Military experience of 10 years and also served in UN Peace Keeping operation MINUSCA.