PAKISTAN
New monsoon reality
IN the mountains of South Asia, the monsoon once arrived like a marching band — broad, rhythmic and predictable. Today, however, it strikes with precision, dropping torrents of water on narrow valleys and towns while nearby areas stay dry. These ultra-intense downpours, commonly called ‘cloudbursts’, unleash more than 100mm of rain per hour over small catchments, turning a single street or hamlet into ground zero of destruction.
In August 2025, Buner in KP experienced such a storm: 150mm of rain fell in just an hour, unleashing flash floods and landslides that killed hundreds. Across the border, India’s Uttarkashi saw a cloudburst sweep away homes in Dharali, while another struck Kishtwar, displacing families and flattening infrastructure. These are not isolated accidents but part of a wider transformation of the South Asian monsoon, which is becoming less predictable and more violent.
The science is clear. Warmer air traps and carries more moisture, and as mountains force this moisture upward, it condenses and falls violently, creating what scientists describe as ‘rain bombs’. The IPCC confirms that heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent across South Asia and will continue intensifying throughout this century. When such rain bombs coincide with glacier-melt season, the impact multiplies: river flows spike suddenly, flash flood risks surge and downstream communities face devastation.
The toll of these storms is profound. Houses, bridges, micro-hydels, orchards and entire markets can vanish in minutes, leaving settlements cut off from roads, power and communication. Pakistan’s catastrophic 2022 floods caused nearly $30 billion in damage, demonstrating how even localised cloudbursts can tip fragile mountain economies into long-term crisis. Environmentally, saturated slopes collapse, boulders crash downstream, river channels shift, forests are uprooted and vital water sources become contaminated, deepening health and food insecurity.
Urgent action is imperative.
Urgent action is therefore non-negotiable. The KP government must rigorously enforce the River Protection Ordinance of 2002, which prohibits construction within 200 feet (61 metres) of riverbanks and restricts development up to 1,500m in sensitive mountain zones. Recent ADB modelling for the Swat River basin reconfirmed that these buffers are not mere regulations but essential safeguards. Authorities must also densify rain-gauge networks, integrate radar with AI-based nowcasting, restrict construction on debris-flow fans and dry streambeds, and operationalise monsoon contingency plans with clear responsibilities. Investments should prioritise resilient infrastructure — larger culverts, debris racks, raised platforms and single-span bridges that can survive turbulent flows. Equally important is facilitating rapid access to international loss and damage finance, so recovery is swift and communities do not sink deeper into poverty.
Preparedness at the household and community level is equally critical. Families should map hazards such as unstable slopes and blocked gullies and keep go-bags ready with IDs, medicine, torches, power banks, dry rations and water purification tablets. Villages can link meteorological alerts to WhatsApp or SMS trees, identify safe muster points and teach members to avoid bridges or basements during cloudbursts. Preventive actions — clearing drains, securing vehicles, installing gratings — can reduce los-ses. When storms strike, people should move laterally to higher ground if rumbling or falling boulders are heard, and cut electricity if water seeps indoors. After the event, all water should be treated as unsafe, the damage documented, blockages reported and slopes monitored for aftershocks.
Precision in language matters. Not every heavy shower is a ‘cloudburst’. Mislabelling weakens early warnings and desensitises communities. True cloudbursts, like those in Buner or Dharali, are rare but catastrophic; distinguishing them from ordinary downpours ensures better communication, stronger preparedness and more credible risk messaging.
The new monsoon reality is stark: not gentle, season-long rainfall but violent, hyper-local downpours — weeks’ worth of water collapsing from the sky in a matter of hours. Each rain bomb can shatter homes, disrupt livelihood, and overwhelm fragile ecosystems. Yet resilience is possible. As Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai said, “It’s the little things citizens do. That’s what will make the difference. My little thing is planting trees.” Today, our collective little things — planning, preparing, protecting — become acts of survival. Afforestation, watershed protection and community vigilance remain among our strongest long-term defences against an unpredictable climate.
The writer has over 20 years of experience in environment and biodiversity conservation. She holds a PhD and post doctorate from Japan.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025
September 4, 2025
DAWN
IN the mountains of South Asia, the monsoon once arrived like a marching band — broad, rhythmic and predictable. Today, however, it strikes with precision, dropping torrents of water on narrow valleys and towns while nearby areas stay dry. These ultra-intense downpours, commonly called ‘cloudbursts’, unleash more than 100mm of rain per hour over small catchments, turning a single street or hamlet into ground zero of destruction.
In August 2025, Buner in KP experienced such a storm: 150mm of rain fell in just an hour, unleashing flash floods and landslides that killed hundreds. Across the border, India’s Uttarkashi saw a cloudburst sweep away homes in Dharali, while another struck Kishtwar, displacing families and flattening infrastructure. These are not isolated accidents but part of a wider transformation of the South Asian monsoon, which is becoming less predictable and more violent.
The science is clear. Warmer air traps and carries more moisture, and as mountains force this moisture upward, it condenses and falls violently, creating what scientists describe as ‘rain bombs’. The IPCC confirms that heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent across South Asia and will continue intensifying throughout this century. When such rain bombs coincide with glacier-melt season, the impact multiplies: river flows spike suddenly, flash flood risks surge and downstream communities face devastation.
The toll of these storms is profound. Houses, bridges, micro-hydels, orchards and entire markets can vanish in minutes, leaving settlements cut off from roads, power and communication. Pakistan’s catastrophic 2022 floods caused nearly $30 billion in damage, demonstrating how even localised cloudbursts can tip fragile mountain economies into long-term crisis. Environmentally, saturated slopes collapse, boulders crash downstream, river channels shift, forests are uprooted and vital water sources become contaminated, deepening health and food insecurity.
Urgent action is imperative.
Urgent action is therefore non-negotiable. The KP government must rigorously enforce the River Protection Ordinance of 2002, which prohibits construction within 200 feet (61 metres) of riverbanks and restricts development up to 1,500m in sensitive mountain zones. Recent ADB modelling for the Swat River basin reconfirmed that these buffers are not mere regulations but essential safeguards. Authorities must also densify rain-gauge networks, integrate radar with AI-based nowcasting, restrict construction on debris-flow fans and dry streambeds, and operationalise monsoon contingency plans with clear responsibilities. Investments should prioritise resilient infrastructure — larger culverts, debris racks, raised platforms and single-span bridges that can survive turbulent flows. Equally important is facilitating rapid access to international loss and damage finance, so recovery is swift and communities do not sink deeper into poverty.
Preparedness at the household and community level is equally critical. Families should map hazards such as unstable slopes and blocked gullies and keep go-bags ready with IDs, medicine, torches, power banks, dry rations and water purification tablets. Villages can link meteorological alerts to WhatsApp or SMS trees, identify safe muster points and teach members to avoid bridges or basements during cloudbursts. Preventive actions — clearing drains, securing vehicles, installing gratings — can reduce los-ses. When storms strike, people should move laterally to higher ground if rumbling or falling boulders are heard, and cut electricity if water seeps indoors. After the event, all water should be treated as unsafe, the damage documented, blockages reported and slopes monitored for aftershocks.
Precision in language matters. Not every heavy shower is a ‘cloudburst’. Mislabelling weakens early warnings and desensitises communities. True cloudbursts, like those in Buner or Dharali, are rare but catastrophic; distinguishing them from ordinary downpours ensures better communication, stronger preparedness and more credible risk messaging.
The new monsoon reality is stark: not gentle, season-long rainfall but violent, hyper-local downpours — weeks’ worth of water collapsing from the sky in a matter of hours. Each rain bomb can shatter homes, disrupt livelihood, and overwhelm fragile ecosystems. Yet resilience is possible. As Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai said, “It’s the little things citizens do. That’s what will make the difference. My little thing is planting trees.” Today, our collective little things — planning, preparing, protecting — become acts of survival. Afforestation, watershed protection and community vigilance remain among our strongest long-term defences against an unpredictable climate.
The writer has over 20 years of experience in environment and biodiversity conservation. She holds a PhD and post doctorate from Japan.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025
Manmade disaster
Naseer Memon
INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate change and cloudburst rhetoric will not prevent catastrophic events.
Three human-induced factors, in particular, have made the hydro-climatic events more intense. Rampant deforestation that has denuded mountains of their green cover, increased obstructions on waterways that impede natural flows and climate-insensitive infrastructure are the root cause of the havoc. August’s second half proved calamitous for the provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan. In one week, the number of casualties dwarfed the total toll of the previous five weeks.
The disaster in these areas did not result from a few abnormal downpours or landslides. Havoc was being nurtured in the belly of the mountains for decades. Malakand, famous for its dense forests, is now infamous for its menacing pace of illegal deforestation. The Swat valley has several areas where deforestation takes place. The massive logging in Bahrain, Madyan, Kalam, Matta, Malam Jabba, Gabin Jabba and other areas is no secret. The woodlots policy has been blatantly abused in these areas. A news report last year revealed that up to 15 to 20 timber-loaded trucks were being transported to Punjab every day. Forests are a natural glue that protect mountains from fragmentation and abrasion. As forest cover thins out, the mountains are exposed to gushing flows. When natural barriers are removed, these flows attain a ferocious velocity that erodes big boulders and rocks.
Boulders roll down these denuded hills into roaring streams that rise from high altitudes and plummet sharply to thousands of metres. Buner, which endured terrible devastation, inclines upwards from 360 metres in the south to reach a maximum height of 2,910m at the Dosara Peak in the north. Given such drastic variations in altitude, a bout of intense rainfall can generate torrents of unimaginable potency. Forests in Swat were ruthlessly devoured during 2007 to 2009 when the Taliban seized the territory.
The disaster was not caused by a few abnormal showers.
Kashmir tells a similar story. A news report last month mentioned that floods in the Neelum Valley brought a huge bounty of illegally cut timber to Nauseri Dam near Muzaffarabad. Clandestine deforestation in the area intensified the floods. Research based on variations in forest cover maps in 2023 concluded that GB lost over 1,700 square kilometres of forest cover in two decades. It disclosed that Chilas subdivision witnessed the highest rate of deforestation between 2000 and 2010 when over 8,600 acres of forest vanished from the map. Darel/Tangir and Astore ranked second and third in this race to the bottom. These areas felt the impact of the recent devastation.
The upper Indus Basin is dotted with more than 3,000 glacial lakes that burst due to heavy rains and generated lethal flows. GB’s population has nearly doubled since 1998. New settlements have been created. Careless tourism has further tested the fragility of the ecosystem. The burgeoning population, especially the poor, tend to occupy empty land in
the mountains, the river plains, forests and deserts everywhere in the country, as witnessed in the floodplains of Punjab and Sindh, where large numbers of people were displaced from katcha areas due to the devastating floods in the last week of August. As admitted by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Sialkot was submerged due to encroachments hindering the waterways. The dry beds of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers were massively encroached upon and hence witnessed damage and displacement when the floods roared in after four decades.
Encroachments have clogged the waterways in the urban and rural areas. Infrastructure has been developed without giving any thought to the impact of the raging climatic events. From the mountain peaks to the coastline, a comprehensive climate audit and a grand overhaul of the ecosystem has become a necessity.
Recurring disasters in the mountains of Swat and GB and the floodplains of southern Punjab and Sindh need to be scrutinised from a different angle. Putting together the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, a sad picture reveals itself: disasters are triggered more by frequent and sustained bursts of misgovernance than cloudbursts.
The writer is a civil society professional.
nmemon2004@yahoo.com
Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025
Naseer Memon
September 2, 2025
DAWN
INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate change and cloudburst rhetoric will not prevent catastrophic events.
Three human-induced factors, in particular, have made the hydro-climatic events more intense. Rampant deforestation that has denuded mountains of their green cover, increased obstructions on waterways that impede natural flows and climate-insensitive infrastructure are the root cause of the havoc. August’s second half proved calamitous for the provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan. In one week, the number of casualties dwarfed the total toll of the previous five weeks.
The disaster in these areas did not result from a few abnormal downpours or landslides. Havoc was being nurtured in the belly of the mountains for decades. Malakand, famous for its dense forests, is now infamous for its menacing pace of illegal deforestation. The Swat valley has several areas where deforestation takes place. The massive logging in Bahrain, Madyan, Kalam, Matta, Malam Jabba, Gabin Jabba and other areas is no secret. The woodlots policy has been blatantly abused in these areas. A news report last year revealed that up to 15 to 20 timber-loaded trucks were being transported to Punjab every day. Forests are a natural glue that protect mountains from fragmentation and abrasion. As forest cover thins out, the mountains are exposed to gushing flows. When natural barriers are removed, these flows attain a ferocious velocity that erodes big boulders and rocks.
Boulders roll down these denuded hills into roaring streams that rise from high altitudes and plummet sharply to thousands of metres. Buner, which endured terrible devastation, inclines upwards from 360 metres in the south to reach a maximum height of 2,910m at the Dosara Peak in the north. Given such drastic variations in altitude, a bout of intense rainfall can generate torrents of unimaginable potency. Forests in Swat were ruthlessly devoured during 2007 to 2009 when the Taliban seized the territory.
The disaster was not caused by a few abnormal showers.
Kashmir tells a similar story. A news report last month mentioned that floods in the Neelum Valley brought a huge bounty of illegally cut timber to Nauseri Dam near Muzaffarabad. Clandestine deforestation in the area intensified the floods. Research based on variations in forest cover maps in 2023 concluded that GB lost over 1,700 square kilometres of forest cover in two decades. It disclosed that Chilas subdivision witnessed the highest rate of deforestation between 2000 and 2010 when over 8,600 acres of forest vanished from the map. Darel/Tangir and Astore ranked second and third in this race to the bottom. These areas felt the impact of the recent devastation.
The upper Indus Basin is dotted with more than 3,000 glacial lakes that burst due to heavy rains and generated lethal flows. GB’s population has nearly doubled since 1998. New settlements have been created. Careless tourism has further tested the fragility of the ecosystem. The burgeoning population, especially the poor, tend to occupy empty land in
the mountains, the river plains, forests and deserts everywhere in the country, as witnessed in the floodplains of Punjab and Sindh, where large numbers of people were displaced from katcha areas due to the devastating floods in the last week of August. As admitted by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Sialkot was submerged due to encroachments hindering the waterways. The dry beds of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers were massively encroached upon and hence witnessed damage and displacement when the floods roared in after four decades.
Encroachments have clogged the waterways in the urban and rural areas. Infrastructure has been developed without giving any thought to the impact of the raging climatic events. From the mountain peaks to the coastline, a comprehensive climate audit and a grand overhaul of the ecosystem has become a necessity.
Recurring disasters in the mountains of Swat and GB and the floodplains of southern Punjab and Sindh need to be scrutinised from a different angle. Putting together the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, a sad picture reveals itself: disasters are triggered more by frequent and sustained bursts of misgovernance than cloudbursts.
The writer is a civil society professional.
nmemon2004@yahoo.com
Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025
Theme Park owner arrested for raising illegal scheme in Ravi
Zulqernain Tahir
LAHORE: The Anti-Corruption Establishment (ACE) has arrested the owner of Theme Park, an ‘illegal’ housing scheme raised in the river bed of Ravi.
The scheme was completely inundated by the swollen river last week.
“Khushi Muhammad built this illegal housing scheme in the Ravi land, made residential plots on 12,000 kanals inside the river bed and sold them to citizens by fraud. The suspect had not built the society as per law and even couldn’t establish any kind of sewage system in the fake housing scheme and since the entire area was inside the river, therefore, all the houses in the illegal housing scheme were submerged by the floodwater,” an ACE spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.
He said the ACE had also sought record of all illegal housing schemes established in the Ravi bed from the River Urban Development Authority (Ruda) and the Lahore Development Authority (LDA) so that action could be taken against those housing schemes as per the law.
ACE seeks record from Ruda, LDA: promises strict action
“Theme Park was not approved by the relevant departments. Keeping in mind public complaints, the ACE has decided to take strict action against all such illegal housing schemes which are established on river land,” he said and added the construction of housing societies on river land could not be permitted at all and indiscriminate action would be taken against already-established illegal housing schemes as well.
A source said Khushi Muhammad was a police constable before he kicked off this project — Theme Park — with a small piece of land.
“By exploiting the loopholes in the system and greasing the palm of the officials concerned, he continued acquiring more land in the river bed and sold the same to the citizens. He also managed to transfer billions of rupees abroad.
Interestingly, it is the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which usually initiates action against the housing societies involved in fraudulent activities but in this case the ACE stepped in first.
“It will be a test case for Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz whether she successfully lays hands on those involved in this mega corruption housing scam along the river bed or buckles under the pressure of those who have strong connections in certain corridors,” an official source said and added not only the owners of such societies but top officials in bureaucracy that helped them build structures on the river land with impunity should be taken to task.
Federal Minister for Communication Aleem Khan, also the president of Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) which was dubbed as king’s party at the time of its inception in 2023, had got a major relief same year following NAB’s decision to close an inquiry against him for allegedly occupying and encroaching public passages and illegal extension of the Park View housing society both in Lahore and Islamabad under the new accountability laws.
The property tycoon was accused of illegally occupying ‘public passages’ and illegal extension of River Edge Housing Society Lahore and also illegal extension of a housing society (Park View) in Islamabad, thus minting money from general public by selling plots in unapproved phases.
The LDA had raised an objection saying the housing scheme was situated in a river area which could not be utilised for any residential purposes. “It is not safe for the people’s lives to allow residential construction there (Ravi area),” the LDA had informed NAB.
“The land also fell in an agricultural area and did not carry the characteristics of urban property thus the scheme was not approved. Despite this, Aleem Khan and others started selling the plots falling in the area for which approval was refused,” NAB had alleged. It is a big question mark how come RUDA, LDA or TMAs approved structures along the river bed.
In recent days, billions of rupees of residents have been lost in various housing schemes and katchi abadis after floodwater entered their houses and business premises in Lahore. This area comes under the Ravi Riverfront Urban Development Project being executed along a 46km long stretch of Ravi by RUDA.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025
Zulqernain Tahir
Published September 4, 2025
DAWN
LAHORE: The Anti-Corruption Establishment (ACE) has arrested the owner of Theme Park, an ‘illegal’ housing scheme raised in the river bed of Ravi.
The scheme was completely inundated by the swollen river last week.
“Khushi Muhammad built this illegal housing scheme in the Ravi land, made residential plots on 12,000 kanals inside the river bed and sold them to citizens by fraud. The suspect had not built the society as per law and even couldn’t establish any kind of sewage system in the fake housing scheme and since the entire area was inside the river, therefore, all the houses in the illegal housing scheme were submerged by the floodwater,” an ACE spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.
He said the ACE had also sought record of all illegal housing schemes established in the Ravi bed from the River Urban Development Authority (Ruda) and the Lahore Development Authority (LDA) so that action could be taken against those housing schemes as per the law.
ACE seeks record from Ruda, LDA: promises strict action
“Theme Park was not approved by the relevant departments. Keeping in mind public complaints, the ACE has decided to take strict action against all such illegal housing schemes which are established on river land,” he said and added the construction of housing societies on river land could not be permitted at all and indiscriminate action would be taken against already-established illegal housing schemes as well.
A source said Khushi Muhammad was a police constable before he kicked off this project — Theme Park — with a small piece of land.
“By exploiting the loopholes in the system and greasing the palm of the officials concerned, he continued acquiring more land in the river bed and sold the same to the citizens. He also managed to transfer billions of rupees abroad.
Interestingly, it is the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which usually initiates action against the housing societies involved in fraudulent activities but in this case the ACE stepped in first.
“It will be a test case for Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz whether she successfully lays hands on those involved in this mega corruption housing scam along the river bed or buckles under the pressure of those who have strong connections in certain corridors,” an official source said and added not only the owners of such societies but top officials in bureaucracy that helped them build structures on the river land with impunity should be taken to task.
Federal Minister for Communication Aleem Khan, also the president of Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) which was dubbed as king’s party at the time of its inception in 2023, had got a major relief same year following NAB’s decision to close an inquiry against him for allegedly occupying and encroaching public passages and illegal extension of the Park View housing society both in Lahore and Islamabad under the new accountability laws.
The property tycoon was accused of illegally occupying ‘public passages’ and illegal extension of River Edge Housing Society Lahore and also illegal extension of a housing society (Park View) in Islamabad, thus minting money from general public by selling plots in unapproved phases.
The LDA had raised an objection saying the housing scheme was situated in a river area which could not be utilised for any residential purposes. “It is not safe for the people’s lives to allow residential construction there (Ravi area),” the LDA had informed NAB.
“The land also fell in an agricultural area and did not carry the characteristics of urban property thus the scheme was not approved. Despite this, Aleem Khan and others started selling the plots falling in the area for which approval was refused,” NAB had alleged. It is a big question mark how come RUDA, LDA or TMAs approved structures along the river bed.
In recent days, billions of rupees of residents have been lost in various housing schemes and katchi abadis after floodwater entered their houses and business premises in Lahore. This area comes under the Ravi Riverfront Urban Development Project being executed along a 46km long stretch of Ravi by RUDA.
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025
