Climate change lowers precipitation, leads to ‘inevitable drought’ in Southwest

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CORNELL UNIVERSITY MEDIA RELATIONS OFFICE

FOR RELEASE: July 9, 2025

ITHACA, N.Y. – A new Cornell University study, published July 9 in Nature Geoscience, shows that climate change and aerosols have led to lower precipitation in the Southwest and made drought inevitable. The research is the first to isolate the variables of human-caused climate change and air pollution to show how they directly affect the region’s precipitation; the study predicts that drought conditions will likely continue as the planet warms.

“What we find is that precipitation is more directly influenced by climate change than we previously thought, and precipitation is pretty sensitive to these external influences that are caused by humans,” said Flavio Lehner, senior author and assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. 

A trend towards lower precipitation in the Southwest started around 1980, with the onset largely attributed to La Niña-like conditions, a climate phenomenon that results in cooler surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The new research shows that even if El Niño-like conditions had prevailed instead, the Southwest would not have experienced a corresponding increase in precipitation.

“In our models, if we see a warming trend in the tropical Pacific, we would expect more precipitation in the Southwestern United States, but that’s not the case here,” said first-author and doctoral student Yan-Ning Kuo. “On top of the El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature trends, there’s a uniform warming trend because of historical climate change, as well as emissions from anthropogenic aerosols, that both create a certain circulation pattern over the North Pacific. Those two factors prevent the precipitation for the Southwestern U.S. from increasing, even under El Niño-like trends.”

Lehner said the results point to a bigger shift in the connection between the weather in the tropical Pacific and in the U.S., due to climate change and aerosols.

“What we call a teleconnection from that region to the Southwestern U.S. is changing systematically,” he said, “and these external influences really modulate that relationship, so it doesn’t behave exactly how we expect it to behave.”

There is some good news. Researchers expect that the concentration of aerosols – which includes the emissions from vehicles and industry – will drop as China and other countries in East Asia implement policies to improve air quality. But Lehner said warming temperatures may offset those improvements.

“Most experts expect the world as a whole to reduce air pollution, and globally, it’s already going down quite quickly. That’s good news on the precipitation side,” Lehner said. “At the same time, the warming is going to continue as far as we can tell, and that will gradually outweigh those benefits, as a warmer atmosphere tends to be thirstier, gradually drying out the Southwest.”

The study was supported by NOAA, the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

For additional information, read this Cornell Chronicle story.

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Journal

Nature Geoscience

 

Live dance performance syncs brainwaves

Cell Press

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Dance performance from the NEUROLIVE project — a collaboration between scientists and artists at UCL, Goldsmiths, University of London, the Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics, and Siobhan Davies Studios which investigates “liveness” — the unique quality of being present in a performance.

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Credit: Hugo Glendinning

A new study publishing July 9 in the Cell Press journal iScience suggests that the magic of live performance art may be reflected in our brains. When people watched a live contemporary dance performance, their brainwaves synced up, signaling shared focus and attention—but that synchrony didn't occur when people watched the same performance alone on video. 

“We wanted to explore what makes live performance feel so different from watching a recording,” says senior author Guido Orgs, a dancer and neuroscientist at University College London (UCL). “Dance felt like the perfect medium to investigate that because it’s so often experienced in the moment, in a shared space.” 

The researchers brought the lab into the theater as part of the NEUROLIVE project — a collaboration between scientists and artists at UCL, Goldsmiths, University of London, the Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics, and Siobhan Davies Studios which investigates “liveness” — the unique quality of being present in a performance. They outfitted 59 audience members with EEG headsets to track brainwaves across three live performances of Detective Work, a contemporary dance performance choreographed by Seke Chimutengwende in collaboration with dance artist Stephanie McMann. They then invited other participants to watch a recording of the same piece, in the cinema with others or alone in a lab, to compare how different settings affect brain synchrony. 

In the live shows, audience members’ brains synced in the delta band, a range of slow-frequency brainwaves typically associated with mind-wandering and social processing. The synchrony was especially strong when performers made direct eye contact with the crowd. 

“Previous research has mostly linked attention to the faster alpha band brainwaves,” says first author Laura Rai, a cognitive neuroscientist at UCL. “But in our study, it was the delta band that best captured shared engagement, which is surprising.” 

Even without a live stage, watching the recorded performance together in a cinema still triggered brain synchrony. But when people watched alone in a lab, that synchrony weakened. The researchers say that the results suggest sharing the moment with others, or “social liveness,” may be as important as the performance itself. 

“The fact that we find synchrony in the delta band links the experience of live dance to the idea that performing arts are social art forms,” says Orgs. “They are created by performers and an audience who are in the same space at the same time.” 

The researchers also investigated whether moments of heightened engagement could be predicted. They asked choreographer Chimutengwende to identify scenes he expected would be most engaging. Audience synchrony peaked at nearly every moment he predicted. 

 “People often emphasize how personal and subjective art is, and that’s absolutely true regarding interpretation. But when it comes to attention, we found that how people engage with live performance can be surprisingly predictable and measurable,” says Orgs. “Essentially, the artists know what they’re doing.” 

The team hopes to take the performance and study on a world tour one day, collecting more data and testing their findings in new settings. They also look forward to improved EEG technology. Current systems are bulky, movement sensitive, and time consuming to set up for large groups. 

“There’s so much knowledge contained in live performance,” says co-author Matthias Sperling, artistic director and researcher at NEUROLIVE. “The artists are experts in liveness, and so are the audience. This research offers a new way to tell stories about what’s happening in that rich, complex environment, using science to open a different window into those shared experiences.” 

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Participant getting brain activity monitor placed before NEUROLIVE project dance performance.

Participants in front of stage for NEUROLIVE project dance performance.

Credit

Hugo Glendinning

This research was supported by funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

iScience, Rai et al., “Delta-band audience brain synchrony tracks engagement with live and recorded dance” https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(25)01183-6.

iScience (@iScience_CP) is an open access journal from Cell Press that provides a platform for original research and interdisciplinary thinking in the life, physical, and earth sciences. The primary criterion for publication in iScience is a significant contribution to a relevant field combined with robust results and underlying methodology. Visit: http://www.cell.com/iscience. To receive Cell Press media alerts, contact press@cell.com. 

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Journal

iScience

DOI

10.1016/j.isci.2025.112922 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Delta-band audience brain synchrony tracks engagement with live and recorded dance

Article Publication Date

9-Jul-2025

YOUNG SAMMY DAVIS JR. SAMMY SR. AND HIS UNCLE

 

The failure of life expectancy to fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels

JAMA Network

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About The Study:

 This study found that California life expectancy remained lower in 2024 than in 2019, due primarily to non–COVID-19 causes. COVID-19 accounted for 12.8% of the deficit in 2024. Although a prior analysis of California data reported that the life expectancy–income gradient increased during 2020-2021, by 2024 the gap between Q1 and Q4 returned to pre-pandemic levels. Life expectancy in the Black population was much lower than in other racial and ethnic populations, and Black and Hispanic populations experienced the largest deficits. 

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Hannes Schwandt, PhD, email schwandt@northwestern.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2025.10439)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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Journal

JAMA

 

Eastern equine encephalitis in the US

JAMA Network

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About The Article: 

This JAMA Insights examines the epidemiology, diagnosis, and management of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) disease in the U.S. following a recent increase in reported cases. This virus is the cause of a rare mosquito-borne disease in the U.S. that causes substantial morbidity and mortality. People at highest risk of EEEV infection are those living in or visiting endemic forested areas near swamps or marshes and those whose occupations (e.g., agricultural work) or hobbies (e.g., camping, gardening) involve outdoor exposure.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, J. Erin Staples, MD, PhD, email auv1@cdc.gov.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2025.9073)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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JAMA

 

Underestimated sources of marine pollution

A study published in Nature reveals for the first time the extent to which nanoplastic pollutes the North Atlantic.

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ

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Plastic waste pollutes oceans across all regions of the world. Marine animals may become entangled in larger plastic debris such as nets and bags or mistake smaller pieces for food. Ingested plastic can block or injure the gastrointestinal tract. The smallest plastic particles in the micro and nano range are mostly excreted, but a small proportion can pass through the intestinal wall and enter the bloodstream.

So how much nanoplastic is actually present in the oceans? Most scientific attention has so far been focussed on macro- and microplastic because their larger size makes them easier to study.  Quantitative data on the pollution of the oceans by nanoplastic particles smaller than 1 µm have been scarce until now because the particles are very small, prone to change, and often difficult to distinguish from other environmental particles using standard methods.

During a 2020 expedition aboard the RV Pelagia, the largest Dutch research vessel and flagship of the NIOZ, researchers from the UFZ and Utrecht University recorded the occurrence of nanoplastic along a transect from the European continental shelf to the subtropical North Atlantic Gyre. Samples were taken at 12 measuring points: in the uppermost water layer at around 10 m, in the intermediate layer at around 1,000 m, and 30 m above the seabed. “With the data from these measuring points, we can make statements about the vertical and horizontal distribution of nanoplastic in the North Atlantic”, says Dr Dušan Materić, chemist at the UFZ and lead author of the study.

Led by Materić, the scientists used a high-resolution proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) coupled with thermal desorption (TD) to measure the concentrations of organic trace gases. With this TD-PTR-MS, the tiny plastic particles in the samples can be combusted. By heating them, gases are released; these can then be quantified in the mass spectrometer. According to Materić, who developed the method in 2020 while working at Utrecht University, because each polymer produces a distinct chemical fingerprint, its identity and concentration can be reliably determined.

The researchers detected nanoplastic at all depths analysed across the 12 measurement sites. “They are present everywhere in such large quantities that we can no longer neglect them ecologically”, says Materić. The research team most frequently found nanoparticles of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which are commonly used in disposable and reusable plastic bottles, films, drinking cups, and cutlery. At nearly all measuring points, the researchers detected these types of plastic in the uppermost water layer. “This is because, on the one hand, the redistribution from the atmosphere occurs via the sea surface and, on the other hand, a lot of plastic is introduced via the estuaries of rivers”, says Materić. The intermediate layer (i.e. the layer between the oxygen-rich surface water and the oxygen-depleted deep water) is dominated by PET nanoparticles. According to Materić, a higher concentration of nanoplastic was found in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, an area where surface microplastics are known to accumulate because of ocean currents.

The researchers found the lowest concentrations of nanoplastic in the water layer near the sea floor. They detected PET nanoplastic at all measuring points there – even at depths of more than 4,500 m. This nanoplastic most likely originated from the fragmentation of synthetic clothing fibres but possibly also from previously unknown processes. “Nanoplastic and nanoparticles are so small that the physical laws governing larger particles often no longer apply”, says Materić.

The research team were surprised to find no polyethylene (PE) or polypropylene (PP) at any of the measuring points. Both PE and PP are commonly used in bags and packaging, which often end up as marine plastic waste. “There is a lot of PE/PP microplastic on the sea surface, but we did not find any PE/PP nanoparticles that could have been formed as a result of solar radiation or abrasion by the waves”, says Materić. The PE and PP nanoplastic may be mineralised or molecularly altered to such an extent that they are no longer detected as plastic by the PTR-MS, or there might be some other dynamic sedimentation and removal processes we are not yet aware of.

The scientists extrapolated the mass of nanoplastic in the North Atlantic from the concentration measurements. Based on these results, around 27 million tonnes of nanoplastic – 12.0 million tonnes of PET, 6.5 million tonnes of PS, and 8.5 million tonnes of PVC – are stored in the uppermost water layer of the North Atlantic, up to 200 m deep, from the temperate to the subtropical zone. “This is in the same order of magnitude as the estimated mass of macro- and microplastics for the entire Atlantic”, says Materić. This means that nanoplastic accounts for a large proportion of plastic pollution in the oceans and has not yet been factored into current assessments of the marine plastic balance. “Only a couple of years ago, there was still debate over whether nanoplastic even exists. Many scholars continue to believe that nanoplastics are thermodynamically unlikely to persist in nature, as their formation requires high energy. Our findings show that, by mass, the amount of nanoplastic is comparable to what was previously found for macro- and microplastic – at least in this ocean system”, says Materić.

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Journal

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-025-09218-1 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Nanoplastic concentrations across the North Atlantic

Article Publication Date

9-Jul-2025

Tremendous amount of plastic floats as nanoparticles in the ocean

Answer to the paradox of the missing plastic

Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research

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Sophie ten Hietbrink

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Credit: Sophie ten Hietbrink

“This estimate shows that there is more plastic in the form of nanoparticles floating in the this part of the ocean, than there is in larger micro- or macroplastics floating in the Atlantic or even all the world's oceans!”, said Helge Niemann, researcher at NIOZ and professor of geochemistry at Utrecht University. Mid-June, he received a grant of 3.5 million euros to conduct more research into nanoplastics in the sea and their fate.

Ocean expedition
For this research, Utrecht master student Sophie ten Hietbrink worked for four weeks aboard the research vessel RV Pelagia. On a trip from the Azores to the continental shelf of Europe, she took water samples at 12 locations where she filtered out anything larger than one micrometer. “By drying and heating the remaining material, we were able to measure the characteristic molecules of different types of plastics in the Utrecht laboratory, using mass spectrometry,” Ten Hietbrink says.

First real estimate
The research by NIOZ and Utrecht University provides the first estimate of the amount of nanoplastics in the oceans. Niemann: “There were a few publications that showed that there were nanoplastics in the ocean water, but until now no estimate of the amount could ever be made.” This first estimate was made possible, according to Niemann, by the joining of forces of ocean scientists and the knowledge of atmospheric scientist Dusân Materic of Utrecht University.

Shocking amount
Extrapolating the results from different locations to the whole of the North Atlantic Ocean, the researchers arrived at the immense amount of 27 million tons of nanoplastics. “A shocking amount,” Ten Hietbrink believes. “But with this we do have an important answer to the paradox of the missing plastic.” Until now, not all the plastic that was ever produced in the world could be recovered. So, it turns out that a large portion is now floating in the water as tiny particles.

Sun, rivers and rain
The nanoplastics can reach water by various routes. In part, this happens because larger particles disintegrate under the influence of sunlight. Another part probably flows along with river water. It also appears that nanoplastics reach the oceans through the air, as suspended particles fall down with rainwater or fall from the air onto the water surface as ‘dry deposition’.

Consequences
The consequences of all those nanoplastics in the water could be fundamental, Niemann emphasizes. “It is already known that nanoplastics can penetrate deep into our bodies. They are even found in brain tissue. Now that we know they are so ubiquitous in the oceans, it's also obvious that they penetrate the entire ecosystem; from bacteria and other microorganisms to fish and top predators like humans. How that pollution affects the ecosystem needs further investigation.”

Other oceans
In the future, Niemann and colleagues also want to do further research on, for example, the different types of plastics that have not yet been found in the fraction of 1 micrometer or smaller. “For example, we have not found polyethylene or polypropylene among the nanoplastics. It may well be that those were masked by other molecules in the study. We also want to know if nanoplastics are as abundant in the other oceans. It is to be feared that they do, but that remains to be proven.

Not cleaning up but preventing
Niemann emphasizes that the amount of nanoplastics in ocean water was an important missing piece of the puzzle, but now there is nothing to do about it. “The nanoplastics that are there, can never be cleaned up. So an important message from this research is that we should at least prevent the further pollution of our environment with plastics.”

The research vessel Pelagia

Credit

NIOZ

Dried sample vials with salt residue.

Credit

Sophie ten Hietbrink

Journal

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-025-09218-1 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Nanoplastic concentrations across the North Atlantic

Article Publication Date

9-Jul-2025

New study in Nature identifies plastic chemicals of concern and highlights approaches towards safer plastics

One-quarter of identified chemicals used in plastics are of concern because of the hazards they pose to health and the environment

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

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Countries are currently negotiating a global treaty to end plastic pollution and make plastics safer and more sustainable. Plastic chemicals are a core issue because all plastics, from food packaging to car tires, contain hundreds of chemicals that can leach into foodstuffs, homes, and the environment.

Many of these are known to harm the health of humans and the environment. However, a comprehensive overview of these chemicals is currently missing, which limits society’s ability to protect people and planet from hazardous plastic chemicals.

A new peer-reviewed study published in Nature today provides a comprehensive and systematically compiled overview of all chemicals that can be present in plastics, their properties, uses, and hazards. It encompasses both chemicals intentionally added during production and contaminants detected in plastics. Importantly, the study provides a scientific approach for identifying chemicals of concern. This allows scientists and manufacturers to develop safer plastics and policy makers to promote a non-toxic circular economy.

The new study shows that there are more plastic chemicals than previously known, with 16,325 chemicals included in the PlastChem database that accompanies the work. Importantly, the scientists discovered at least 4,200 plastic chemicals are of concern because of the hazards they pose to health and the environment. These chemicals of concern can be present in each major plastic type, including in food packaging, and all tested plastics can release hazardous chemicals.

“Plastics should not contain harmful chemicals to begin with. Yet, the scientific evidence shows that they are intentionally used or unintentionally present in all types of plastics. This underpins the urgent need to make plastics safer,” said Martin Wagner, a lead author of the study and professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim.                  

The new study outlines three major pathways towards safer and more sustainable plastics: safer chemicals, transparency, and chemically simpler plastics. Known chemicals of concern should be removed from plastics, either by voluntary industry action or regulation. More transparency is needed, given that industry currently does not disclose which chemicals are present in which plastic product. Finally, plastics should be re-designed to contain fewer chemicals that are thoroughly assessed for their safety, particularly if they are to be reused or recycled.

“There is a lot of momentum to make plastics safer. Our study provides the scientific evidence needed to achieve that goal and better protect human health and the environment from chemicals of concern in plastics,” said Dr. Laura Monclús, a lead author of the study and researcher at the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in Trondheim.

Reference

Laura Monclús, Hans Peter H. Arp, Ksenia J. Groh, Andrea Faltynkova, Mari E. Løseth, Jane Muncke, Zhanyun Wang, Raoul Wolf, Lisa Zimmermann, Martin Wagner (2025). Mapping the chemical complexity of plastics, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09184-8.

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Journal

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-025-09184-8. 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Mapping the chemical complexity of plastics

Article Publication Date

9-Jul-2025