It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, July 24, 2025
ABOLISH THEM
Delinking PBM compensation from drug list prices could unleash major savings
Reforming payments to PBMs and other pharmacy middlemen could lower annual U.S. drug spending by nearly $100 billion, analysis finds
Breaking the link between prescription drug list prices and compensation to middlemen like pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) could cut a significant portion of the nation’s annual drug tab, finds a new analysis from the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics.
PBMs, who negotiate drug benefits on behalf of insurers and employers, are typically paid based on a percentage of a drug’s list price before rebates and other discounts are applied. Federal and state policymakers have proposed delinking PBM compensation from list prices in response to evidence that PBMs often steer patients toward higher-priced drugs — even when cheaper alternatives are available — to boost their own profits.
Shifting instead to a transparent, fixed payment model for PBMs and other intermediaries in the prescription drug supply chain would reduce annual net drug spending by $95.4 billion (or nearly 15%) without undermining pharmaceutical innovation, according to research from Schaeffer Center Director of Health Policy Geoffrey Joyce published July 24 in Health Affairs Scholar.
Fair Compensation
The U.S. spent $650 billion on prescription drugs in 2023 after factoring in discounts, with about one-third ($215 billion) flowing to PBMs, wholesalers and pharmacies — though the exact division of these costs is unclear. However, using simplified estimates, Joyce finds spending on these intermediaries would have dropped to $119.6 billion under fair and transparent compensation models.
Here’s how those costs break down:
PBMs: A fixed administrative fee of $4 per claim would result in total costs of $27.6 billion in 2023. Payments to PBMs could be reasonably adjusted for hitting cost and quality targets.
Wholesalers: Entities that purchase drugs from manufacturers in bulk add about a 3% markup on average to the list price before selling to pharmacies, hospitals and long-term care facilities. Applying that markup to net prices instead would yield $19.5 billion in total revenues, less than the $27.5 billion these firms reported in 2023.
Pharmacies: A $10.50 per prescription dispensing fee would have generated gross venues of $72.5 billion. That rate is commonly used by state Medicaid programs and aligns with the pricing model used by Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drug Company.
Reform Implications
A proposal to delink PBM compensation from list prices was included in earlier drafts of sweeping domestic policy legislation before it was dropped from the final version that was recently enacted. However, policymakers have expressed continued interest in reforming PBM practices amid growing evidence that these firms use their considerable market power to artificially inflate drug prices and restrict access to essential medications.
Joyce warns that some commonly proposed reforms, such as those aimed at curbing consolidation and increasing PBM transparency, are too modest to meaningfully change PBM behavior given how quickly the industry has shifted tactics in the face of heightened scrutiny.
“Delinking compensation from list prices is the clearest and most effective way to tackle the warped incentives in the prescription drug supply chain that drive up costs for patients without adversely affecting manufacturers’ incentive to innovate,” says Joyce, who is also chair of the Department of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics at the USC Mann School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences.
The Hydrogen Small Unit Power (H-SUP) prototype offers a low-signature solution for electric power production, up to 1.2 kW of continuous power, in a ruggedized package
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Principal Investigator Kevin Cronin (left) and U.S. Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office Science and Technology Analyst Capt. Joshua Ashley (right) train Marines with Combat Logistics Company 33 on the warfighting utility of hydrogen fuel cell systems during an exercise at Marine Corps Training Area Bellows, Hawaii, March 4, 2024. (Photo by DIU Energy)
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has prototyped a Hydrogen Small Unit Power (H-SUP) system to reduce detectability and improve readiness of Marine Corps in expeditionary warfare operations.
NRL’s H-SUP is a portable fuel cell electric generator with greater energy per weight than batteries and lower audible and thermal signatures than combustion generators.
“This is more than a power system. It’s a capability that supports distributed operations and extends mission range. That’s strategic value,” said NRL Principal Investigator Kevin Cronin. “At NRL, we champion long-term modernization while working hand in glove with end-users across the services. Our investment today with the Marines in low-signature power intends to shape the future of how Marines fight – more independently, more efficiently, and with less logistical burden.”
The use of hydrogen in key applications can lead to increased electrical efficiency and energy density, increased operational range, reduced thermal and audible signature, and reduced maintenance requirements; ultimately increasing lethality of the force and decreasing logistical sustainment requirements.
“Warfighter feedback is a critical component of the technology development process and will be used to inform requirement definition and future research and development activities,” said Capt. Joshua Ashley, U.S. Marine Corps, Expeditionary Energy Office (E2O) Science and Technology Analyst. “The E2O serves as the link between the warfighter and the lab, providing feedback to refine the system and accelerate acquisition.”
The Marine Corps established the E2O to conduct research and development in technologies, which can be the difference between mission success and failure, while reducing energy consumption with the goal of increasing reach, persistence, and lethality. E2O works closely with the combat and technology development communities and serves as the proponent for Expeditionary Energy in the force development process.
“H-SUP isn’t just innovative – it increases lethality by keeping us powered and hard to find,” Ashley said. “We ensure this technology meets the needs of Marines on the ground – quiet, efficient, and reliable power that supports expeditionary operations.”
By evaluating H-SUP in operational scenarios, the team is reducing risk and accelerating requirements development of technology that increases endurance and improves the autonomy of small units.
H-SUP was field tested at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune in July 2022, Marine Corps Air Station Yuma in February 2025, Marine Corps Training Area Bellows in March 2025, an Army event at Fort Polk with the 101st Airborne in May 2025, and most recently at Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms in May 2025.
“Our mission at NRL is to advance science that solves today’s problems while anticipating tomorrow’s threats,” Cronin said. “Hydrogen fuel cells fit both categories.”
NRL and E2O are translating feedback from Marines to refine the system for usability, survivability, and integration. This leads to adoption, not just prototypes.
“My role at NRL is to turn advanced science into operational capability,” Cronin said. “We built H-SUP not just to work in the lab, but to serve Marines in the field. Through collaboration with partners and direct feedback from users, we’re pushing this from prototype to practical.”
The fuel cell system in H-SUP was originally developed for use in unmanned vehicles. The high specific energy content of hydrogen enables increased range and endurance for those systems. This has been demonstrated in the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division’s H2 Stalker program, where this same fuel cell was integrated into the Stalker VXE30.
H2 Stalker provides greater combined power and energy to weight than alternate Stalker VXE30 configurations, enabling improved range, endurance, and dash metrics compared to the baseline VXE30. H2 Stalker successfully completed multiple flight tests and demonstrations in various environmental conditions.
“We’re pushing technology into the hands of warfighters through real partnerships with industry and acquisition commands,” Cronin said. “In addition, the fuel cell in the H-SUP can also be used to power unmanned aerial vehicles to extend mission endurance. Lastly, fuel cells can support multiple aspects of the U.S. Marine Corps concept of Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations.”
NRL has developed fuel cell technology and the H-SUP system with sponsorship from the Office of Naval Research, Office of the Secretary of Defense Manufacturing Science and Technology Program, Naval Air Systems Command, and the USMC E2O; in addition to collaboration with industry partners, Northwest UAV and Noble Gas Systems.
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Principal Investigator Kevin Cronin (left) trains Marines from Marine Wing Support Squadron 371 on the operation of the Hydrogen Small Unit Power (H-SUP) at Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, Feb. 19, 2025. (U.S. Navy photo)
Credit
U.S. Navy Photo
About the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
NRL is a scientific and engineering command dedicated to research that drives innovative advances for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps from the seafloor to space and in the information domain. NRL is located in Washington, D.C. with major field sites in Stennis Space Center, Mississippi; Key West, Florida; Monterey, California, and employs approximately 3,000 civilian scientists, engineers and support personnel.
For more information, contact NRL Corporate Communications at (202) 480-3746 or nrlpao@us.navy.mil. Please reference package number at top of press release.
###
BUILD A GIANT BEACH UMBRELLA
USC teams up with ShadeLA coalition to cool Los Angeles ahead of 2028
ShadeLA, a new USC-led initiative, unites civic, academic and community partners to expand urban tree canopy and shade infrastructure — building lasting heat resilience for Angelenos well beyond 2028.
USC on Wednesday announced ShadeLA, a bold new collaborative effort to cool Los Angeles by expanding tree canopy and shade infrastructure in key public and community spaces.
With major sporting events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, 2027 Super Bowl and the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the horizon — and as climate change drives more frequent and intense heat waves — ShadeLA aims to keep Angelenos and visitors safe while leaving a lasting legacy of resilience.
ShadeLA is led by USC Dornsife Public Exchange in collaboration with UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, and with participation by the city of Los Angeles, County of Los Angeles Chief Sustainability Office, L.A. Metro and the Los Angeles Organizing Committee for the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games (LA28). The campaign is powered by a growing list of community-based organizations who have led on-the-ground shade projects across Los Angeles and the region, helping ensure solutions are locally driven and responsive to neighborhood priorities. ShadeLA builds on the city’s leadership on tree canopy equity and its longstanding partnership with USC’s Urban Trees Initiative.
“For years, USC Dornsife Public Exchange has been leading the way on sustainable urban forestry,” USC Interim President Beong-Soo Kim said. “Now, we’re proud to be spearheading ShadeLA, an important initiative that leverages our cutting-edge research to improve quality of life for all of us in Los Angeles.”
“Extreme heat continues to impact the lives of the people of Los Angeles, and this partnership empowers our communities to come together, build resilience and cool our neighborhoods,” L.A. Mayor Karen Bass said. “As we prepare to welcome the world, this initiative will leave a lasting legacy for Angelenos for years to come.”
ShadeLA: Tackling the deadliest climate threat of our time
Extreme heat is the most dangerous climate threat facing Los Angeles — one that’s growing more severe each year. The city’s dense population, concrete infrastructure and uneven tree cover amplify temperatures, especially in vulnerable neighborhoods. Extreme heat leads to an estimated 1,500 excess daily emergency room visits per “heat day” across L.A. County. By 2050, the number of extreme heat days is projected to increase by 31%, placing even greater strain on low-income communities and communities of color, who face higher risks of heat-related illness and limited access to cooling and care.
Shade is one of the most effective, low-cost ways to reduce heat risk. Whether from a tree, canopy, awning or bus shelter, shaded areas can feel between 35 degrees Fahrenheit to 70 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than in the sun. It’s simple, scalable and can be integrated into everyday spaces where people live, work and move.
Los Angeles County has less shade than the national average. Urbanized areas of the county only have an average of 21% shade at noon when the sun is directly overhead, compared with the national average of 27%, according to the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation and their National Shade Map that is part of American Forests’ Tree Equity Score.
“ShadeLA is about more than trees and structures — it’s about people,” said Monica Dean, climate and sustainability practice director at USC Dornsife Public Exchange. “This campaign addresses heat not just as an environmental issue, but as a public health, infrastructure and community challenge. We’re designing solutions to protect lives — during major events and every day.”
What ShadeLA will do
The campaign focuses on four key goals:
Add shade: ShadeLA is working with public agencies, schools, businesses and community organizations to bring new shade to the places people need it most — on schoolyards, sidewalks, parks and other everyday spaces.
Protect existing shade: Maintaining the shade we already have — whether from mature trees or built structures — is critical to keeping communities cool. ShadeLA supports local caretakers, provides guidance and training, and works with public agencies to clarify responsibilities and secure funding for ongoing upkeep.
Use science to inform decisions: Research, data and planning tools are used to pinpoint where shade is most needed, evaluate which solutions will have the greatest impact and track results over time. This evidence-based approach helps ensure that shade projects are not only well-placed, but also aligned with public health, climate and community priorities — turning research insights into real-world action.
Make it easy to act: Adding shade shouldn’t be complicated — but too often, it is. ShadeLA works to streamline the process by offering practical tools, clear guidance and technical support for residents, businesses, schools and agencies. Many resources are already available, but confusion and misperceptions can stand in the way. By addressing these barriers head-on, the campaign empowers more people to take part in building a cooler Los Angeles.
These efforts will evolve and be developed in coordination with local communities and organizations across Los Angeles. Together, they aim to build a more comfortable and livable L.A., one shaded space at a time.
“We are committed to helping residents keep their cool as climate impacts intensify,” said Rita Kampalath, chief sustainability officer for Los Angeles County. “Creating more built and natural shade will not only benefit visitors, but will pay dividends for vulnerable residents for generations to come.”
From planting trees to building shade
USC Dornsife Public Exchange and the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation bring considerable experience to ShadeLA. Public Exchange leads the USC Urban Trees Initiative, a multi-year, data-driven effort to help the city of Los Angeles prioritize tree planting in areas of greatest need. That work combines environmental, public health and equity data to guide tree planting efforts and contributed to the planting and care of nearly 1,000 trees in South and East Los Angeles.
UCLA is demonstrating how trees and other forms of shade affect people’s heat experiences and measuring the impact of shade in places such as homes, schools and streetscapes. For example, the new National Shade Map, developed by the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation and American Forests, empowers communities to see when and where they have shade, providing decision-makers the first accessible, comprehensive opportunity to identify “shade deserts” and prioritize investments to mitigate the impacts of heat.
While trees are essential, they aren’t always feasible — especially in dense, paved or transit-heavy areas where space, soil and infrastructure constraints limit planting. ShadeLA builds on this foundation by expanding the focus to include built shade solutions like canopies, awnings and modular structures.
“We’re at a critical juncture as L.A. gets hotter, and we are thrilled to partner with USC, to lead with evidence, and to collectively envision a livable future for our region,” said Edith de Guzman, water and adaptation policy cooperative extension specialist at the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation.
To launch the campaign, ShadeLA is introducing a set of activities to spark innovation, engage the public and guide smart investments. In the weeks ahead, new survey data from LABarometer, based at USC Dornsife’s Center for Economic and Social Research, will offer insights into how residents experience heat and value shade in their neighborhoods.
A global spotlight on Los Angeles
L.A. will soon welcome the world for major global sporting events. In 2026, SoFi Stadium will host eight FIFA World Cup matches, including the U.S. men’s national team opener. In 2028, Los Angeles will host the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
“LA28 is committed to incorporating sustainable solutions throughout the Games’ footprint,” said Becky Dale, vice president of sustainability at LA28. “ShadeLA supports not only keeping spectators cool during the Games, but also leaving a legacy of a cooler, greener Los Angeles for all Angelenos.”
By expanding shade and modeling collaborative climate action, ShadeLA aims to show how a major global city can tackle extreme heat while creating safer, healthier public spaces for everyone — now and for decades to come.
Credit: Albert Escobedo/Centro de Regulación Genómica
Proteins are life’s molecular workhorses, doing everything from turning sunlight into food to fighting viruses. They are built from 20 different types of amino acid molecules, so even a small protein made of 60 amino acids in length can, in theory, be constructed in a quinquavigintillion, or 10⁷⁸, different ways. That’s about as many atoms there are in the entire universe.
How did evolution choose the handful of amino acid combinations that result in proteins which fold, stay stable and get the job done? And can we learn these rules to help protein engineers design better medicines and greener catalysts? A study published today in the journal Science has taken an important step toward answering both questions.
Proteins have a core that keeps the structure from collapsing, while the surface does most of the work, such as binding with other molecules. For decades, biologists assumed that altering the core was like removing a load-bearing wall: one wrong move and the whole structure collapses. Because buried amino acids are packed tightly, it seemed logical that any alteration can force neighbouring amino acids to shift, resulting in unpredictable domino effects that ripple throughout the protein.
With this classical picture of protein stability, most changes to the building blocks of a protein would set off hidden booby traps and threaten to knock the entire structure out of shape. Given the sheer number of combinations possible, the odds of evolution stumbling onto a safe route to create new proteins seems very small.
The study turns this idea on its head. Researchers at the Centre for Genomic Regulation (CRG) in Barcelona and the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Hinxton, UK, studied a human protein domain (the functional bit of a protein) called FYN-SH3, making hundreds of thousands of variants and testing which ones still folded and worked.
The experiments revealed that SH3 retained its shape and function across thousands of different core and surface combinations. Only a few true, load-bearing amino acids existed in the protein’s core.
“Our data challenges the dogma of proteins being a delicate house of cards. The physical rules governing their stability is more like Lego than Jenga, where a change to one brick threatening to bring the entire structure down is a rare, and crucially, predictable phenomenon,” explains Dr. Albert Escobedo, first author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Genomic Regulation.
The team used the large amount of data generated by their experiments to test whether learning the rules from one protein could help explain the evolution of all related proteins that exist in Nature. They fed the data into a machine-learning algorithm, which helped them create a tool that can predict whether an SH3 sequence will stay stable.
SH3 domains have been diversifying since early multicellular life, roughly one billion years ago. The researchers compared their model against 51,159 natural SH3 sequences found in public databases spanning the entire tree of life, including bacteria, plants, insects and humans. The algorithm correctly flagged almost all SH3 domains as stable, even when a test sequence shared less than a quarter of the sequence with the human version.
“Evolution didn’t have to sift through an entire universe of sequences. Instead, the biochemical laws of folding create a vast, forgiving landscape for natural selection,” says Dr. Escobedo.
Implications for protein engineering
The field of protein engineering currently relies on companies screening thousands of protein variants with minimal changes, inching forward a few changes at a time and making the design of new enzymes, drugs and vaccines slow and expensive.
The confirmation that protein stability follows simpler rules than previously thought can slash the trial-and-error phase for protein design, saving significant time and effort for developing proteins with medical or industrial applications, such as greener catalysts or longer-lasting medicines.
For example, therapeutic enzymes often fail because their surfaces trigger immune flare-ups. Resurfacing these proteins is labour intensive, requiring lots of trial and error to avoid the scaffold from collapsing and sabotaging a promising design. Now, protein engineers can propose bolder designs, including dozens of simultaneous changes, on computers and walk into the lab already knowing which variants are most likely to survive both folding and functional tests.
“The ability to predict and model protein evolution opens the door to designing biology at industrial speed, challenging the conservative pacing of protein engineering,” explains ICREA Research Professor Ben Lehner, corresponding author of the study with dual affiliation at the Centre for Genomic Regulation (CRG) and the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
Aerial view of Bikar Atoll, with southern tip and Bikar Islands in the foreground. The National Geographic Pristine Seas team, in collaboration with the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority (MIMRA) and the Government of the Marshall Islands, conducted an expedition to the remote atolls of Bikar, Bokak, Bikini, and Rongerik. This expedition was in support of Reimaanlok, the Marshallese national framework for the planning and establishment of community-based conservation areas. In 2025, the Republic of the Marshall Islands established their first national marine sanctuary — which covers 48,000 square kilometers of water — providing an exceedingly rare glimpse into a pristine part of the Pacific Ocean.
Credit: Steve Spence, National Geographic Pristine Seas
In two separate studies leveraging satellite imagery and artificial intelligence techniques, researchers reveal patterns of industrial fishing in coastal marine protected areas (MPAs) worldwide. Collectively, the findings, which may seem contradictory, show that although industrial fishing vessels are present in many protected areas worldwide, MPAs with the highest levels of protection remain largely unfished. Both studies suggest that proper investment in protected areas will pay off and that synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite technology could be one of the key tools used to safeguard the ocean’s future sustainability. Roughly 8% of the global ocean is formally protected, with ambitious international targets aiming to more than triple that coverage by 2030. While such protections can yield substantial long-term benefits, especially when paired with adequate fisheries management, potential gains are often compromised by inadequate regulations. In many cases, destructive, illegal, or unreported fishing practices persist even within designated protected areas due to insufficient safeguards. Global-scale monitoring of industrial fishing, including within MPAs, has been aided by the emergence of automatic identification system (AIS) data, which tracks the activity of individual vessels. However, not all vessels are required to use it. Many disable their transponders to avoid detection, making it difficult to obtain reliable, large-scale estimates of fishing pressure within MPAs. As a result, the true effectiveness of MPAs worldwide remains poorly understood.
In one study, Jennifer Raynor and colleagues analyzed 455 coastal MPAs classified as “fully” or “highly” protected under the MPA guide, an assessment framework that evaluates protections based on both regulations and management practices. These categories fully ban industrial fishing within their bounds. Raynor et al. combined AI methods with a recently published global SAR satellite imagery dataset to directly identify industrial fishing vessels operating within MPAs, regardless of whether their AIS is active. The authors found that, overall, very little unauthorized industrial fishing activity occurs in MPAs that prohibit it, averaging just one vessel detected per 20,000 square kilometers – a rate 9 times lower than in unprotected exclusive economic zones. Although a few MPAs in East and South Asia showed higher vessel densities, these cases were outliers driven by small geographic areas and sporadic detections. Only seven MPAs worldwide had vessels present on more than half of observed days, highlighting how rare such activity is in strongly protected areas. Raynor et al. also demonstrate SAR imagery’s reliability in detecting unauthorized fishing vessels. Not only did the method successfully identify AIS-broadcasting vessels with high accuracy, it also detected vessels in 163 MPAs where AIS data showed none, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, where AIS is often incomplete.
In another study, Raphael Seguin and colleagues quantified fishing activities across a larger group of 6021 coastal MPAs representing a wide range of protective categories as outlined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) management framework. Using the same SAR dataset and deep learning models, Sequin et al. discovered that nearly half of the MPAs evaluated showed evidence of industrial fishing at levels in many cases matching or exceeding those in nearby unprotected waters. According to the findings, industrial fishing vessels were detected in 47% of the world’s coastal MPAs. While stricter IUCN categories did correlate with reduced fishing, the authors concluded that factors such as MPA size and remoteness were more predictive of fishing presence than official protection category alone. In a Perspective, Boris Worm discusses the possible drivers underlying the differences in the two studies’ findings. “Many MPAs have been established quickly without strong protective regulations, meaningful consultation with local stakeholders, or appropriate management capacity. In some cases, this has resulted in “paper parks” that are recognized as protected areas but do not prevent harmful activities,” writes Worm. “Yet the available data show that where proper investments are made, industrial exploitation is curtailed, and protective measures are comprehensive, long-term benefits will accrue.”
This map shows two ways the researchers tracked industrial fishing activity over 2017-2021. The top panel uses signals from ships’ Automatic Identification System (AIS), which broadcast their location, speed, and identity. By analyzing these signals with artificial intelligence (AI), researchers can estimate where fishing is likely happening. However, some vessels turn off their AIS or don’t carry it at all. The bottom panel uses satellite-based radar (Synthetic Aperture Radar, or SAR) to spot these so-called “dark” vessels that would otherwise go undetected. SAR works by sending radar pulses to the ocean’s surface and measuring the reflections, allowing AI models to identify most vessels over 15 meters long even if they have no AIS. The map shows industrial fishing activity density estimated from AIS (average daily apparent fishing hours per 100 square kilometers) and the density of vessels detected by SAR (vessels per 100 square kilometers at the time of satellite flyovers). Points indicate the center of each marine protected area.
Credit
Jennifer Raynor, Sara Orofino, and Gavin McDonald
Data is available for the production of data visualizations. For more information, please contact Raphael Seguin at raphaelseguin@protonmail.com
Illegal fishing is a global problem that threatens the health of ocean ecosystems and the economic viability of the fishing industry. Marine protected areas (MPAs)—zones set aside to safeguard marine life—are a key tool for conservation, but monitoring them has been a long-standing challenge.
Researchers led by the University of Wisconsin–Madison’s Jennifer Raynor showed that artificial intelligence methods applied to satellite data provide a powerful new way to assess industrial fishing activity in MPAs, bridging blind spots in current monitoring methods. The first-of-its-kind study, published in the journal Science, found that the world’s most strongly protected MPAs had little-to-no industrial fishing activity.
"We found that MPAs with strict legal fishing bans work better than critics claim,” says Raynor, a professor of natural resource economics in UW–Madison’s Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology. “MPAs can help to regenerate fish populations, which creates strong incentives for illegal fishing—and yet, that activity was mostly absent. This is good news for marine conservation.”
Strongly protected MPAs had significantly less fishing activity than surrounding waters, averaging nine times fewer fishing vessels per square kilometer than unprotected coastal areas. In addition, 25% of MPAs had no fishing vessels present from 2017 to 2021.
Raynor and her colleagues at National Geographic Pristine Seas and the University of California, Santa Barbara, analyzed 1,380 MPAs that ban industrial fishing. Located within the world’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs), or waters under the jurisdiction of coastal nations, they captured 2.1% of the global ocean by area, including Australia’s Great Barrier Reef and Hawaii’s Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument.
First, the researchers examined 5 billion real-time vessel locations from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which broadcasts vessel identity, position, course and speed to shore-based receivers to support marine safety. The AIS analysis showed little apparent fishing effort during the five-year study period. However, not all vessels are required to use the system, and captains can disable transponders or tamper with location broadcasts to evade detection. In addition, AIS is unreliable in areas with poor signal reception, such as parts of Southeast Asia.
To track the “dark vessels” that are absent from AIS data, the researchers used images created by satellites that send radar pulses to the ocean surface and measure the reflected signals (SAR, or synthetic aperture radar). A previous study showed that analyzing these reflectance patterns with AI methods reliably identified fishing vessels more than 15 meters long.
The new analysis detected just one vessel per 20,000 square kilometers (7,722 square miles), on average, in 455 MPAs with the highest imaging frequency during the study period, corroborating the AIS results. Expanding the sample to 638 MPAs with at least one satellite image increased the proportion with no vessel detections from 25% to 42%. This strengthened the argument that little-to-no industrial fishing activity occurred in MPAs that ban this activity.
Importantly, the AIS data missed almost 90% of SAR-based fishing vessel detections. This was compelling evidence that relying on AIS-based monitoring alone is problematic, especially in areas with low adoption rates, frequent tampering, or poor signal reception. Resource-limited nations can collaborate with nonprofit organizations like Global Fishing Watch to enhance their ocean monitoring efforts with satellite-based tools, says Raynor.
By helping the ocean recover from fishing pressure, MPAs boost biodiversity inside their boundaries. But they also provide spillover benefits. "Because strictly protected marine areas discourage illegal fishing, fishes are far more abundant within their boundaries, they produce many more babies, and help replenish surrounding areas,” says Enric Sala, a marine ecologist and founder of Pristine Seas, which funded the study. “In other words, the fishing industry benefits from following the rules.”
Previous research showed, for example, that the fishing restrictions in the no-take Papaānaumokuākea Marine National Monument increased catch rates of yellowfin and bigeye tunas around it.
Raynor hopes the new findings will help shape global policies for future MPAs. “By using satellites to track fishing vessels, countries can predict the locations of illegal activities and target patrol efforts, saving both manpower and money,” she says. “This is critical for reaching the Global Biodiversity Framework’s 30 by 30 target, which aims to protect 30% of oceans by 2030.”
Special Notes to Reporters: More information, including a copy of the paper, can be found online at the Science press package at https://www.eurekalert.org/press/scipak/.
New research: Satellite imagery detects illegal fishing activity, shows strict protections work
The first-of-its-kind study reveals that the world’s most strongly protected marine reserves successfully curb industrial fishing activity, offering a new way to assess fishing compliance and bridge blind spots in current monitoring methods.
Washington, D.C. (July 24, 2025) — New peer-reviewed research in the journal Science demonstrates the power of strict legal bans against industrial fishing in marine protected areas (MPAs). The analysis — which combines satellite imagery and artificial intelligence technology to detect previously untraceable vessels — reveals that most of the globe’s fully and highly protected MPAs successfully deter illegal fishing. The study is the first of its kind to demonstrate that the most strictly protected marine reserves are well respected and are not simply “paper parks.”
The study, “Little-to-no industrial fishing occurs in fully and highly protected marine areas” finds that:
78.5% of the 1,380 MPAs studied had no commercial fishing activity;
Of the MPAs where satellite images detected illegal fishing activity, 82% of them averaged less than 24 hours of activity per calendar year;
Strongly protected MPAs had, on average, nine times fewer fishing vessels per square kilometer than unprotected coastal areas; and
MPAs designated as strictly-protected with significant fishing activity included those in the Chagos Marine Reserve, the South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (combined with the Great Barrier Reef Coast Marine Park), each with approximately 900 hours per year.
“Because strictly protected marine areas discourage illegal fishing, fishes are far more abundant within their boundaries, they produce many more babies, and help replenish surrounding areas,” remarked Enric Sala, one of the study’s co-authors, a National Geographic Explorer in Residence, and founder of Pristine Seas. “In other words, the fishing industry benefits from following the rules.”
Illegal fishing poses a significant global threat, jeopardizing both the health of ocean ecosystems and the economic stability of the fishing industry. Scientific evidence shows that strictly protected MPAs restore marine life within their boundaries, improve local fishing, provide jobs and economic benefits, and build resilience against a warming ocean. But when MPAs are minimally or lightly protected, the benefits practically disappear.
“The ocean is no longer too big to watch. With cutting-edge satellites and AI, we’re making illegal fishing visible and proving that strong marine protections work,” said Juan Mayorga, a scientist with Pristine Seas and co-author of the study.
To arrive at their conclusions, researchers analyzed five billion vessel positions from the Automatic Identification Systems (AIS), a GPS-based safety signal transmitted by many industrial fishing vessels, and paired this with satellite images generated by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which can detect vessels regardless of weather or light conditions. The combination of the datasets — and the use of AI models developed by Global Fishing Watch — allowed researchers to detect the majority of fishing vessels over fifteen meters long, including so-called dark vessels that do not broadcast their location and often operate to evade detection.
“No single dataset can solve the challenge of monitoring fishing activity at sea; each has its blind spots,” asserted Mayorga. “But when we combine them, their power emerges. By fusing AIS tracking with satellite radar imagery and AI, we are now much closer to the full picture of human activity across the ocean. That’s especially important in the crown jewels of the ocean — the world’s most strongly protected areas — where the stakes for enforcement and biodiversity are highest.”
Researchers found that the AIS data missed almost 90% of SAR-based fishing vessel detections within these MPAs. Inaccurate data, limited resources and the vastness of the ocean have made effectively monitoring MPAs for industrial fishing a challenge. This groundbreaking methodology offers a powerful new way to assess fishing compliance and bridge blind spots in current monitoring methods, the authors found.
“By using satellites to track fishing vessels, countries can predict the locations of illegal activities and target patrol efforts, saving both manpower and money,” said Jennifer Raynor, the study’s lead author and a professor of natural resource economics in UW–Madison’s Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology.
A growing body of research shows that MPAs produce spillover of fishes and invertebrates that increases the catches of species from small and sedentary (lobsters, scallops) to large and migratory (tuna). A 2024 study revealed that fishing catch per unit effort increases, on average, 12% to 18% near the boundaries of large fully protected MPAs.
“Illegal fishing takes place in areas of the ocean set aside for protection, but using satellites we have found — for the first time ever — that the level of protection determines how much risk industrial fishers are willing to take on,” Sala remarked. “Fully and highly marine protected areas discourage illegal fishing. The stricter the rules in place to conserve ocean areas, the more benefits nations receive — including more fish to be caught outside protected areas’ boundaries.”
###
Note to Reporters:
Visuals, for editorial use with proper credit, can be found in our press kit. Credit and caption information is included.
Pristine Seas works with Indigenous and local communities, governments, and other partners to help protect vital places in the ocean using a unique combination of research, community engagement, policy work, and filmmaking. Since 2008, our program has conducted nearly 50 expeditions around the world and helped establish 30 marine reserves, spanning more than 6.9 million square kilometers of ocean.
Pristine Seas is part of the global non-profit, the National Geographic Society. Our mission is driven by science and filmmaking — we are fully independent from National Geographic publishing and its media arm.
