Afghanistan: UN slams killings, torture under Taliban

The security situation in Afghanistan has improved since the Taliban seized power, but this came at a cost, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said in a new report.

The Taliban have rejected claims of rights abuses as baseless

The UN has accused the Taliban of committing hundreds of human rights violations in Afghanistan since taking power  last summer, detailing the abuses in a new report on Wednesday.

"UNAMA is concerned about the impunity with which members of the de facto authorities appear to have carried out human rights violations," said the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

The mission said overall the security has improved across the country, but at a cost.

"Our monitoring reveals that despite the improved security situation since 15 August, the people of Afghanistan, in particular women and girls, are deprived of the full enjoyment of their human rights,'' said Markus Potzel, deputy special representative of the secretary-general for Afghanistan.

'Islamic State' affiliate behind deadly attacks

The report said as many as 700 people have been killed and 1,400 wounded since August 2021, when the Taliban claimed the Afghan capital of Kabul.

Most of those casualties were linked to attacks by the Islamic State group's affiliate in the country.

UNAMA, however, also documented 160 allegations of extra judicial killings, 56 incidents of torture and ill treatment and more than 170 arbitrary arrests and detentions against former government officials and security forces.

The Taliban's Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice as well as the General Directorate of Intelligence were particularly mentioned in violations.

UNAMA also had 87 reports of violence against women and girls including murder, rape, suicide, forced marriages including child marriage, assault and battery, as well as two cases of honor killings.

In one instance, a couple was publicly stoned to death after being accused of having an affair.

Fiona Frazer, head of the UN's human rights mission in Afghanistan, said "impunity prevails" and warned there might be underreporting of allegations.

Human rights violations also affected 173 journalists and media workers, 163 of which were attributed to Taliban authorities, including 122 arbitrary arrests and 33 instances of threats.

Taliban deny accusations of rights abuses

The Taliban have rejected the report's findings, calling them baseless.

"Arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killing are not allowed," Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban government, wrote on Twitter.

He added anyone found guilty of such violations will be considered a criminal and dealt with according to Shariah, or Islamic law.

The Taliban said they had began a process of purging their ranks of elements that did not fully follow instructions.

lo/dj (AP, AFP, Reuters)

Turkey rejects blame for deadly Iraq shelling

Iraqi officials have blamed Turkey for an airstrike on the Kurdistan region that killed at least eight tourists. But Turkey has distanced itself from the shelling, saying it was a "terror attack."

Officials said the victims died before reaching a hospital

Artillery shelling on Iraq's autonomous region of Kurdistan killed at least eight civilians and wounded 20 others, local officials said on Wednesday, blaming the attack on Turkey.

The "fierce artillery bombing" hit a tourist resort in Zakho, a city on the border between Iraq's Kurdistan region and Turkey, state TV said.

The Kurdish health minister said children, including a 1-year-old, were among the victims, adding that they all died before reaching a hospital. All the victims were Iraqi tourists from other regions. 

Witnesses spoke of horror as tour groups were vacationing in the area at the time of the attack. 

Iraq points finger at Turkey

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi condemned the harm caused to "the life and security of Iraqi citizens" and reserved Iraq's right to retaliate.

"Turkish forces have perpetrated once more a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty," he said on Twitter.

Al-Kadhimi's office said the Iraqi armed forces were holding an emergency meeting to discuss "the repercussions of the Turkish aggression."

Turkey regularly carries out strikes on the Kurdistan region as part of its long-running crackdown on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization.

Turkey denies involvement

The Turkish Foreign Ministry referred to the airstrike as a "terror attack" and expressed

condolences to Iraq. 

Ankara went on to urge Iraqi officials to avoid making statements influenced by "terrorist organization propaganda," an apparent reference to the PKK. 

The ministry added that Turkey was ready to cooperate in investigating the attack.

An earlier statement from Turkey's Defense Ministry said two Kurdish militants had surrendered to a Turkish security point at the Habur border crossing, about 10 kilometers (16 miles) from Zakho — but made no mention of the shelling. 

UN, US emphasize Iraqi sovereignty

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq called for a "thorough investigation" and urged "all parties" to cease violations. 

"Civilians are once again suffering the indiscriminate effects of explosive weapons," it said in a statement, adding that it "emphasizes that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Iraq must be respected at all times."

The US State Department also echoed the UN office, saying: "We reaffirm our position that military action in Iraq should respect Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Spokesman John Kirby told reporters that Washington also emphasizes "the importance of ensuring civilians are protected," while refusing to further comment on the matter. 

Turkey's offensive in northern Iraq

Turkey launched a new offensive in northern Iraq in April against the PKK. Ankara justified the operation by saying it was protecting itself against terrorist attacks and it had the right to self-defense.

The EU and the US also list the PKK as a terrorist organization.

The group has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The PKK's presence in the region has hampered vital trade relations between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, while Ankara's military operations have complicated its relations with Baghdad.

Turkey has also extended its crackdown to the broader Kurdish movement in Turkey itself, including the imprisonment of political leaders and the attempted ban of the People's Democratic Party (HDP). 

 

 

 

How can European countries slash their gas consumption?

All eyes are on Nord Stream 1 and whether Putin will keep the gas tap back on. What measures can Russian-gas-dependent countries like Germany and Italy do to cut their consumption? A look to the Netherlands might help.

Critics say Russian President Vladimir Putin has weaponized gas deliveries, 

which many European countries depend on

For millions, it's a moment of truth: Russian gas again began flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Thursday, and across Europe, officials will be eying whether deliveries keep up at expected levels.  

Many European countries have already been preparing for the possibility of a complete cut since Russia sharply reduced gas flows in mid-June, and with zero gas flow during a period of annual pipeline maintenance that started on July 11.

Governments are considering a raft of measures to head off a crisis that is feared could touch off a recession. That includes changing consumer behavior, a measure that has not been fully tapped — except perhaps in one country.

Netherlands successfully slashes gas consumption

Since the start of the year, the Netherlands has managed to reduce its gas consumption by about a third.

That's more than twice the reduction seen in neighboring Germany, of about 14% from January through May; and vastly more than the reduction of not even 2% in Italy during the same time.

All three countries, among numerous others in Europe, are heavily dependent on natural gas, including Russian gas, for their energy mix.

Rene Peters, a gas expert with Dutch research organization TRO, boils the Dutch success down to three main factors: an unusually mild winter, bringing coal-fired power plants back online and a large reduction in gas consumption.

Replacing gas with coal energy and the warm winter accounted for perhaps 5% to 10% of the decrease, he explained. "But the biggest impact is the reduction of the use of gas by both households and industry," he said.

The Dutch government launched a large-scale campaign calling on households and companies to reduce their gas consumption back in April.

Under the motto "zet de knop om," or "turn the knob down," citizens were asked to heat their homes less. This was accompanied by additional incentives to insulate homes and commercial buildings better, as well as purchase more energy-efficient equipment.

Reducing gas in energy production, industry, households

In the broader European context, other countries are likely to reach for similar resorts, explained Ben McWilliams, an energy research analyst at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

Burning coal instead of gas to generate electricity is, "from an economic perspective, the low-hanging fruit; from a climate perspective, it's obviously difficult and challenging."

A return to coal is painful for many European countries, which have made substantial 

progress on transitions to renewables

For the industrial sector, a reduction in gas translates to curtailment, namely ramping down production. "That's where you see the big economic costs and the potential recession."

Households, which make up the third largest sector for gas use, may see quick gains by turning the thermostat down and undertaking quick-fix insulation.

In terms of immediate action, politicians can "just be completely honest with people," McWilliams said.

"Explain to them already now that particularly in the winter, every molecule of gas a household is able to save, saves jobs and ultimately saves us from a recession."

Public awareness campaigns like the one in the Netherlands have also been launched in Belgium and Germany, for example. Italy is planning one imminently.

Public campaign one crucial piece

"This type of campaign can and should be replicated in Italy," said Francesca Andreolli, a researcher with Rome-based climate change think tank ECCO.

Andreolli noted that people have already been implementing energy-savings actions in response to high prices. She described how a public awareness campaign, like one many countries including Italy ran for mask-wearing and vaccination during theCOVID-19 pandemic, could emphasize economic savings and solidarity.

The Dutch campaign to 'turn the knob down' reduced gas use by perhaps

 one-fifth in the Netherlands

In an analysis of how Italy can reduce its dependency on Russian gas, ECCO described how reducing heating temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), combined with measures to reduce heat wastage and working from home, could provide potential energy savings of 15% compared to current use.

For the summer, quick energy savings include limiting cooling interior temperatures to 27 degrees Celsius. Although such a policy is already in place for public buildings, ECCO is calling for it to be applied to all buildings, public as well as private.

Longer-term measures include replacing gas boilers with heat pumps and ramping up renewables in the energy mix; the Netherlands has long had such programs underway, which had set the stage for its successful reduction in energy use.

On the public campaign in the Netherlands, Peters pointed out that such efforts are most effective "when they induce a structural behavioral change for long term."

Eliminate harmful subsidies and address energy poverty

Andreolli also pointed out problems with a reduction in VAT, or value-added tax, on gas from 22% to 5%, which the Italian government implemented in October 2021 and then extended through the third quarter of 2022.

"In the end, it's a subsidy for wealthy people who consume more than lower-income households," she said.

Some experts make the criticism that reducing VAT on fuel is a regressive tax that helps 

rich families more than poor

Indeed, there is a shadow side to reduced energy consumption, namely that it unveils energy poverty, added Peters.

"Did people start to suffer from lower temperatures because they couldn't pay for the energy?" he said, pointing to a problematic finding in a TNO study that about 8% of households spent more than a tenth of their income on energy, an indication of energy poverty.

In both the Netherlands and Italy, as well as in other countries, governments have been providing targeted rebates to lower-income households. Such policies are crucial to protecting those particularly vulnerable in the looming energy crisis, experts agree.

Winter is coming

Europe-wide, there seems to be a consensus that measures like ramping coal use back up — or even Germany pushing back its nuclear phaseout, scheduled to be completed this year — are all on the table, despite the pain they cause in reversing progress on the EU's ongoing energy transition.

Ramping up renewable energies like solar and wind is a longer-term solution 

to breaking free from Russian gas

And indeed, perhaps the moment for energy savings has come. On Wednesday, as the EU moved from an "early warning" to "alert" stage on energy, the European Commission released emergency plans to immediately reduce gas demand by 15% in the EU.

The policy proposal, with the self-explanatory title "Save Gas For a Safe Winter," showed that in addition to promoting enhanced usage monitoring, the Commission believes all public buildings should be required to stick to temperature limits for heating and cooling.

Full disruption of Russian gas supply could result in the EU falling short of its 80% target for winter storage of gas, a leaked draft of the paper found, instead landing "as low as 65% to 71%."

Should Putin turn the Nord Stream 1 tap off again, even gas-dependent countries will be fine for now, as they have for the most part managed to secure other sources, including liquid natural gas, to cover present consumption. But not having topped off gas storage reserves presents a major problem for winter.

"I find that we're all too complacent in Europe and we don't really prepare," said McWilliams.

Making some sacrifices in summer could go some distance to preparing for a cold winter in Europe, he added.

"We need to take the situation seriously and do everything we can to reduce gas demand to get ready."

How can Sri Lanka recover from economic collapse?

A bailout from the International Monetary Fund will be critical in stabilizing Sri Lanka's finances, but critics say the Indian Ocean island needs to tackle food insecurity and political instability first.

Sri Lanka's economic crisis has caused fuel shortages that sparked long lines at gas stations

Sri Lanka's President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was picked to continue in the role by parliament on Wednesday, now has a mammoth task in guiding the country out of its economic crisis. The Indian Ocean island's debt-laden economy collapsed after it ran out of money to pay for food, fuel and medicine — sparking months of protests.

The government owes $51 billion (€50 billion) and is struggling to make interest payments on those loans, let alone pay down the principal.

Many analysts have blamed years of mismanagement and corruption for the meltdown, including reckless borrowing from China, which was used to fund infrastructure projects that turned into white elephants.

The debt crisis was exacerbated by several other policy blunders, including deep tax cuts introduced just months before COVID-19 hit and an abrupt transition to organic farming that saw crop yields plummet.

A massive drop in tourism revenue — a vital source of foreign exchange — following the 2019 Easter terrorist attacks and during the pandemic, made matters far worse.

The economy is on course to contract by as much as 8% this year, while the cost of many food products and fuel has tripled and currency has collapsed by 80%.

Can IMF bailout be secured?

The first priority for the new government will be to restructure Sri Lanka's huge debts. Negotiations for a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are already underway but they will require further restructuring of existing IMF loans as well as to others from China, India and Japan.

Any rescue package is likely to come with strings attached, including the privatization of state-owned enterprises and deeper austerity measures.

"The reality is that people can't take any more austerity," Ahilan Kadirgamar, a political economist at the University of Jaffna, told DW. "Many people have no cushion whatsoever," he said, adding that nearly two-thirds of Sri Lankans work in the informal economy.

Kadirgamar is skeptical about an IMF bailout, saying that Colombo will struggle to boost its external debt going forward as the cost of capital will be too high for a country that has just defaulted.

More relief needed to 'avert famine'

The economist has called on Wickremesinghe to use Sri Lanka's foreign exchange income — which he said amounted to $1.3-$1.5 billion per month — to prioritize the import of essentials like food, fuel and medicine that are still in short supply. The government must also increase deficit spending to fund further relief for the public, amid the rising threat of famine, he added.

The previous government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa — who fled to Singapore and resigned from exile — has already undone some of the policy errors that fueled the crisis. But many of them could take years to help fuel the recovery.

Sri Lanka's new president (left) faces a deep political, economic and humanitarian crisis

 that toppled the previous leader

Tax cuts reversed

For example, sweeping tax cuts announced in 2019 to spur growth were reversed last month to help meet the conditions of the proposed IMF bailout.

The original decision saw revenues fall by as much as 800 billion rupees ($2.2 billion, €2.1 billion) a year, according to Bloomberg. The reversal means sales tax (VAT) and corporate taxes are being hiked at the worst possible time and may fail to boost tax revenues enough while the economy is on its knees.

"I would say that the benefits [of the tax hikes] are going to be negligible," Soumya Bhowmick, associate fellow at the India-based Center for New Economic Diplomacy, Observer Research Foundation, told DW. "The additional tax revenue won't go to strengthen the economy but to tackle food shortages and other measures."

Kadirgamar, from the University of Jaffna, noted there was, "no appetite from the political class for a wealth tax," despite the urgent need for new streams of tax revenue.

Farming stimulus needed after organic crops debacle

In November, the government also U-turned on a major experiment with organic farming, just months after announcing a nationwide ban on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. As a result of the ban, domestic rice production fell by a third and tea production — the country's primary export and source of foreign currency — dropped by 16%.

"In a short period of time, they destroyed the productivity gains achieved by farmers over many years, so rebuilding will take quite a lot of time, and that's after they have dealt with the crisis at hand," Bhowmick said.

Kadirgamar told DW that many of Sri Lanka's 2 million farmers had "lost confidence" after the organic blunder and that an "active stimulus" would be required by the government to encourage them to recultivate their land.

"Even if agriculture is low in GDP terms, in terms of our food security and people's livelihoods, it's a really huge sector," Kadirgamar told DW.

Tourism, too, could take a long time to recover. Sri Lanka's tourist revenues reached $4.3 billion in 2018 but slumped almost 80% during the pandemic.

While most Asian countries have seen an increase in international travelers recently, the widespread civil unrest and the severe disruption in Sri Lanka have again put off many holidaymakers.

Russians — the country's top source of tourism revenue — and Ukrainian

 have stayed away due to the war

Remittances vital for foreign exchange

Rising foreign remittances from the estimated 3 million Sri Lankans working abroad could be a growing source of revenue but that too has been hit by both the pandemic and currency controls introduced last year.

Expatriates in total send home between $500-600 million per month, but when the government set the rupee's exchange rate at an uncompetitive price, the use of the informal "hawala" transfer system increased while official remittances dropped by up to 52%.

"Hawala" allows migrant workers to remit cash in the currency they earn to a middleman who ensures the worker's family receives the equivalent amount in rupees.

"Unless the government figures out a way to incentivize remittances through formal channels, the figure won't return to its previous level," Kadirgamar said.

Bhowmick, however, was more optimistic, as a result of an increase in Sri Lankans seeking employment abroad as their work at home has dried up.

"I'm quite hopeful that remittances will return to their normal level within a year or so as post-pandemic recoveries happen," he told DW.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

INTER-IMPERIALI$T RIVALRIES

China, India vie for influence in Sri Lanka amid economic turmoil

Sri Lanka — with its strategic location at the crossroads of busy shipping routes — has become an arena of geopolitical rivalry and maritime competition between India and China.

In 2017, Colombo had to hand over the Hambantota port and thousands of acres

 of surrounding land to Beijing for 99 years

Sri Lanka is currently experiencing the worst economic turmoil in its independent history, staring at surging inflation, staggering levels of debt and empty foreign exchange reserves, which have resulted in crippling shortages of essential items such as food and medicine.

Regional heavyweights India and China, both vying for influence in the island nation, have been quick to offer help.

New Delhi has so far given about $1.5 billion (€1.47 billion) to Colombo for funding imports of food, fuel, medicines and fertilizers. It has also provided another $3.8 billion in assistance in the form of currency swaps and credit lines. 

Beijing, for its part, is providing some 500 million yuan ($75 million, €73.35 million) in humanitarian aid and has promised to "play a positive role" in Sri Lanka's talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

But China has yet to respond to Colombo's appeal for debt relief.

Beijing funds Colombo's infrastructure drive

Sri Lanka — with its strategic location at the crossroads of busy shipping routes linking Asia to Africa and Europe — has become an arena of geopolitical rivalry and maritime competition between India and China in recent years.

Sri Lanka is a vital node in the Maritime Silk Road, as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative

India and Sri Lanka share not only close trade relations, but also ethnic and religious ties.

But under the leadership of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, who  served as president from 2005 to 2015, Beijing had appeared to gain sway in Colombo at the expense of New Delhi. China emerged as Sri Lanka's biggest trade partner and one of its largest creditors, accounting for about 10% of the country's entire foreign debt of about $51 billion.

When Sri Lanka embarked on a massive infrastructure drive after the end of a decades-long civil war in 2009, China pumped money into the country, funding roads, ports and airports for example.

Sri Lanka also emerged as a vital node in the Maritime Silk Road, under Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

Accusations of 'debt trap' diplomacy

China's closer ties with Sri Lanka have unsettled India, traditionally Colombo's closest economic and political partner.

But not all the collaboration has turned out to be financially viable, particularly the debt-financed mega projects like the Hambantota port and the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport.

In 2017, Colombo had to hand over the Hambantota port and thousands of acres of surrounding land to Beijing for 99 years, triggering accusation that China engaged in a "debt trap" diplomacy to gain influence and control over key assets in the country.

"My field research last year found that China has gained a considerable footprint on the island's foreign policy through infrastructure diplomacy," said Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, a political and security analyst from Sri Lanka. 

"There are concerns regarding Chinese projects due to opaqueness, lack of transparency and high-interest rates for Chinese loans," he stressed, adding that the Chinese offered loans at considerably higher rates than other lenders.

"We have borrowed at 6.4% from China while Japanese loans were less than 1% interest rate," he said.

Sumit Ganguly, a South Asia expert and professor of political science at Indiana University Bloomington in the US, shared a similar view. "The shiny infrastructural projects that were built on the basis of Chinese loans have proven to be castles of sand," he said.

'Rumors spread by Western countries'

But Xiaoxue Liu, an associate research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy in China, said that allegations that China's Belt and Road initiative had dragged Sri Lanka into the current hardship were "rumors spread by Western countries."

According to her, most of Sri Lanka's foreign debts were caused by the large amount of commercial loans that the country had taken out over the last few years. "These loans are the key factors that caused Sri Lanka's dire economic situation," she said. 

Nevertheless, with the current economic crisis  and the general perception of Beijing's culpability, as well as China's apparent reluctance to write off Sri Lanka's debt, either partly or in full, India is eyeing up the chance to regain lost ground and consolidate its position as Colombo's primary partner.

"India sees this crisis as an opportunity. It has moved quite deftly to assist Sri Lanka with supplies of fuel, medicine and loans," said Ganguly.

"There are, obviously, limits to India's generosity owing to its own needs. However, given the significance that New Delhi attaches to its neighbor and its fears of Chinese influence in the country it is acting with alacrity," he underlined.

Over the past few months, India has managed to wrest control of some Chinese projects in Sri Lanka.

In March, New Delhi inked a deal to set up hybrid power projects on islands in northern Sri Lanka, after China said in December that it was suspending its plans to build plants on three islands due to security issues. In the same month, Colombo also scrapped an agreement with a Chinese firm to build a $12 million wind farm in the country, and instead offered the project to an Indian rival. 

These decisions came after Sri Lankan authorities allowed India to proceed with a long-delayed project to jointly redevelop a strategic oil terminal along the island nation's eastern coastline.

"India's policy toward Sri Lanka is not based on a reaction to China. It is historical and based on people-to-people contacts with shared culture. If you look at Indian investments in Sri Lanka, they are people-centric," said Smruti Pattanaik, a foreign policy research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi.

Recalibrating Sri Lanka's foreign policy

Despite India appearing to regain lost ground, all is not well as anti-Indian sentiments still persist among sections of the Sri Lankan population, given suspicions and fears about Indian hegemony.

On Wednesday, Sri Lanka's Parliament elected acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe — who has served as prime minister several times before and is seen to be pro-India — as president after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and tendered his resignation last week.

Abeyagoonasekera said that the next government should recalibrate the nation's foreign policy and make it more balanced and with less of a pro-China tilt than witnessed under Rajapaksa.

"As an island nation, we have supported international norms and values for a rules-based order in the Indian Ocean. We should keep supporting in this direction to be a partner with our like-minded partners."

Liu, meanwhile, insisted that China had no intention to compete with India in Sri Lanka, as Beijing's main goal was to develop economic programs that would benefit both China and Sri Lanka.

"It's clear to us how close Sri Lanka is to India geographically while how far away it is from China," she said. "China knows it can't compete with India for influence in Sri Lanka, but if that's how India wants to view the situation, China can't stop them from doing so."

William Yang from Taipei contributed to this article.

Edited by: Shamil Shams

Opinion: Russia-Iran-Turkey talks strong on symbolism, short on substance

While the talks put the respective leaders in the spotlight, the implications for regional stability, economic cooperation, food security and the war in Ukraine remain opaque, write Sanam Vakil and Galip Dalay.

Despite the show of unity, tensions between Russia, Iran and Turkey

 are simmering beneath the surface

Officially Tuesday's meeting in Tehran was part of the "Astana Format," a process through which the three actors have negotiated their interests in Syria. That process has proved to be effective in reshaping the conflict map in Syria, but has not advanced a political vision for dealing with the conflict, leaving the format largely defunct. 

The symbolism of this meeting is conspicuous for three reasons. First, this was Vladimir Putin's highest profile visit since Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24. Putin's aim in Tehran was to convey the message that Russia is not as isolated as the West portrays it to be. 

Second, the talks came on the heels of US President Joe Biden's Middle East tour, where he tried to reassure traditional US partners about US security commitments to the region; further solidify the anti-Iran regional bloc and align on China and Russia. 

Third, it coincided with Turkey's attempts to mend ties with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt, and at a time when tensions between Ankara and Tehran relations are growing. Uncertainty over the revival of the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) also looms large. Whether or to what extent Turkey will join the growing anti-Iran coalition in the region is a question that is on the minds of many actors.

Thinking in geopolitical categories

Galip Dalay (left) and Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

Compartmentalization has long been a hallmark of the relationship between Turkey and Iran and will continue to be the guide going forward. For example, there's the issue of Turkey's planned new military offensive in northern Syria directed against the Syrian Kurdish PYD/YPG forces, and Turkey's military operations in Iraq. Iran opposes those plans and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei unsurprisingly pushed back firmly to showcase Iran's influence in both arenas. 

In addition to both countries' desire to boost their trade ties, Iran is one of the largest sources of energy for Turkey and as such their gas export contract was extended for a further 25 years. While there were no further breakthroughs in their talks, such meetings help to prevent the simmering tension in their relations from spiraling out of control. 

Another major issue that dominated the talks is how to establish a safe grain corridor from Ukraine. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keen to push ahead, Putin wants the discussion to drag on so that Moscow can use it as leverage vis-a-vis different actors. But if Putin concedes on this point down the road, it will not only spell good news for the question of food security in places like Africa, Asia and the Middle East, but will also boost Turkey's international stature.

While details remain scant, we can assume that Putin raised the thorny issue of Turkish combat drone sales to Ukraine that have exacted a cost on Russian forces and have become a major irritant in ties between Russia and Turkey. Despite its support for Ukraine, Ankara will tread carefully in order not to antagonize Russia.

Russia still sees itself as an important geopolitical player

The ties between Russia and Iran are also characterized by compartmentalization. Historical tension and suspicion pervade their relationship. US claims that Russia is looking to purchase Iranian drones to use against Ukraine put a further strain on their ties. Meanwhile there's no sign of any progress to revive the Iranian nuclear deal.

Tehran has denied taking sides in the war against Ukraine, but after the meeting suggested that Putin had been provoked and that war would have been inevitable. Iran's security-minded establishment sees strategic and economic opportunities on the horizon due to the economic sanctions on Russia that are starting to take a toll. 

Where they do see eye to eye is in their mutual suspicion of Western policies and values. If Iran does export drones to Moscow, its pro-Russian posture could be the nail in the coffin for the JCPOA and firmly tilt Iran toward Russia and China in the geopolitical realignments that are underway. 

And then there's the issue of energy supplies. Despite facing Russian energy competition from Russian oil on the market, Tehran is eager to cement the long-term cooperation agreements and can offer Moscow sanctions-busting and survival strategies that include using Iran as an export corridor. Notably, Gazprom and Iran's oil company signed a $40 billion (€39 billion) Memorandum of Understanding to develop Iran's North Pars Gas Field. And, of course, Tehran will also hope to benefit from grain deliveries.

At the end of the day, the trilateral talks were short on major breakthroughs, however, they achieved their aim of drawing attention to Russia's continued reach and influence within the multipolar politics in the Middle East.  

Sanam Vakil is the deputy director of the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, where she leads project work on Iran and Gulf Arab dynamics.

Galip Dalay is Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House specializing on Turkish politics and Middle Eastern affairs. He is Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy.