Putin's meeting with Trump in Budapest is a slap in the face for the EU
As preparations get underway for a highly anticipated summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Budapest, attention is turning to an unusual but politically sensitive detail: how will Putin actually reach the Hungarian capital without violating European airspace restrictions or international law?
The meeting, hosted in an EU country and a Nato member state, is a slap in the face for Brussels, which will not participate in any way in the meeting and will be in defiance of EU sanctions on Russia.
In theory Putin can fly to Budapest and visit the Hungarian capital as he is not personally on any sanctions list. There is an arrest warrant for Putin’s arrest, who is charged with kidnapping children from Ukraine, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for kidnapping Ukrainian children, but Hungary withdrew from the Rome Statutes in April this year.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban nixed the Rome Statutes so that he could host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April, who is also wanted by the ICC on war crime charges.
However, despite nixing the treaty, legally the statute will still be in force until June 2, 2026 and so technically the arrest warrant is still in force in Hungary and authorities should arrest Putin on his arrival. But given that Netanyahu successfully visited Hungary with impunity, an arrest seems highly unlikely.
A second problem makes the trip difficult: after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 all Russian airline permissions to enter European airspace have been rescinded.
However, an exception to this rule was recently made for the first time when, on July 28, the plane of the grand dame of Russian politics, Valentina Matviyenko, Chairwoman of Russia's Federation Council, was permitted to fly through EU airspace to attend the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, Switzerland.
Matviyenko is a close Putin ally who has been under EU sanctions since 2014, but her trip marked the first such overflight by a senior sanctioned Russian official since 2022. As it was, the decision backfired as most of the delegates at the conference walked out as soon as she got on stage.
Matviyenko's Russian government plane (also an Il-96) entered EU airspace via Italy after crossing from Turkey over the Mediterranean, then proceeded to Geneva. It returned on July 30 via French and Italian airspace, avoiding the full EU ban through special exemptions.
According to AirLine, Putin’s aircraft is expected to minimise the need for permissions by taking a long southern detour, bypassing EU airspace almost entirely. The route would take the plane via Turkey and the southern Balkans, which have all refused to join the sanctions regime.
It is expected to be escorted by Turkish and Russian fighter jets along the full distance to mitigate the risk of drone or missile attacks by Ukraine or anyone else.
The flight, which would ordinarily cover 1,500 km, could stretch to 5,000 km, adding as much as three hours to the journey. While Russia’s presidential aircraft is technically capable of such range, the detour will require careful coordination with Turkish, Serbian and possibly Bosnian air traffic control, and create additional risks due to regional military activity, especially over the Black Sea.
In February 2022, the European Union closed its airspace to all Russian aircraft, including state and presidential flights, in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin has not confirmed the final route. “Putin’s flight route to meet with President Trump in Hungary is, of course, still unclear,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, adding that Orbán had initiated a call with Putin to express Hungary’s willingness to host the summit.
“Viktor Orbán expressed his readiness to provide conditions for the organisation of a possible Russian-American summit in Budapest,” Peskov said. “Putin informed the Hungarian prime minister about the content of his telephone conversation with Donald Trump.” Orbán, who has maintained warm relations with both Putin and Trump, hailed the summit as a breakthrough.
“The planned meeting between the American and Russian presidents is great news for the peace-loving people of the world,” he posted on X. “We are ready!” Trump echoed the sentiment in a detailed statement following what he called a “very productive” phone call with Putin last week.
“At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors next week,” he wrote, naming Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the US delegation.
Trump added: “President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ war, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.”
The proposed summit will be closely watched, not just for its diplomatic implications, but for its legal and symbolic resonance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy went into a White House meeting with US President Donald Trump on October 17 hoping for a big arms deal, trading Ukraine’s advanced drone technology for US Tomahawk cruise missiles, and a tightening of the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. He came out of the meeting empty handed.
“Ukrainian hopes had been built by the apparent Trump 180 on Russia a few weeks back with tweets around his UNGA appearance and suggesting that Ukraine actually had a path to victory. Ukraine has also been upping the ante with its campaign of deep strike drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. There was a growing sense here that Russia was looking increasingly vulnerable,” Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London said in a blogpost.
Trump has pivoted back to Putin, lured by Putin’s offer of yet another summit in Budapest and Tomahawks are off the agenda again. Trump went further to say that the time was “not perfect” to consider fresh sanctions on Russia.
Ukraine has changed strategy this summer and has started targeting Russian energy assets inside the country in the hope of cutting the Kremlin from its main source of income, with some success. While estimates vary, Russia’s oil refining output is down by 10%-30%, sparking a fuel crisis. However, despite improvements, Ukraine’s drones can only do limited damage. The powerful Tomahawks could flatten refineries and to bring the point home a Kyiv Post reporter captured the moment the Ukrainian delegation carried maps into the White House detailing the “pain points” of Russia's defence industry that these missiles could be used to destroy.
Trump was not buying it. After meeting with Zelenskiy, Trump said on social media that their talks were "very interesting, and cordial, but I told him, as I likewise strongly suggested to President Putin, that it is time to stop the killing, and make a DEAL!"
Axios, citing Ukrainian sources familiar with the discussions, reported that the two-and-a-half hour meeting was tense, at times getting "emotional." "Nobody shouted, but Trump was tough," one source described the meeting to Axios.
"You know, we need Tomahawks and we need a lot of other weapons that we're sending to Ukraine... Hopefully, we'll be able to get the war over without thinking about Tomahawks," Trump said after the meeting with Zelenskiy.
Since taking office Trump has sent no money to Ukraine, imposed no sanctions, and more recently US-supplies of weapons, paid for by Europe under the new PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) initiative, have fallen dramatically.
Business talks
As bne IntelliNews has reported, Trump’s foreign policy is driven by minerals diplomacy, where he has tried to cut some sort of minerals deal in each of the conflicts he has become involved with, starting with Ukraine’s minerals deal signed on April 30.
Russia remains the big prize as it is home to a cornucopia of critical minerals and rare earth metals (REMs). Trump has made it clear from the start that he is interested in doing business with Russia and both presidents have recently admitted that they talked about more than Ukraine at the recent Alaska summit on August 15.
However, details of these business discussions remain vague. Amongst the items that have been mentioned is ExxonMobil return to the Sakhalin-1 oil project; lifting of aviation sanctions to allow Boeing to resume business in Russia in exchange for access to Russia’s titanium monopoly; and the exploitation of REM deposits in Russia and Alaska. bne IntelliNews sources in Washington have also confirmed a business agenda is being actively discussed, but details remain obscure.
Most recently, a “Runnel” was proposed – a tunnel linking Northwest Russia to Alaska connecting the two continents. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and in charge of the parallel business talks, admitted in a post on social media that his fund already commissioned a feasibility study for the Runnel six months ago, which suggests the tunnel project has been on the discussion agenda since the talks kicked off in Riyadh on February 18.
The public appearance of the Runnel project adds a new significance to the surprising, but still symbolic, choice of Alaska as the venue for the first Trump-Putin meeting given its Russian heritage.
By the same logic, the choice of Hungary as the venue for a second meeting is also a surprising move. It is also symbolic as it is a clear slap in the face for Brussels, which will not be involved in the meeting at all, despite the fact that Hungary is both an EU and Nato member.
Brussels is now “scrambling for a seat” at the upcoming Putin–Trump summit, desperate to counter what EU officials call “Putin’s influence over Trump.” One senior EU source even floated that Finnish President Alexander Stubb should “somehow be present”, Bloomberg reports.
But at the same time, there is also a raw materials connection between Russia and Hungary, which continues to import significant amounts of oil and gas from Russia in defiance of an EU drive to ban all Russian imports by the start of 2027.
It may be another deal being discussed is the change of ownership of the European sections of the Druzhba pipeline to facilitate these imports. In recent comments, Trump has said that India must reduce the import of Russian oil but called Hungary’s case a “tricky problem.” He went on to say that it has “only one pipeline” and that it is “far from the sea”, suggesting that the White House would not support Brussels’ drive to end the imports of Russian oil and gas.
“Trump likes strong leaders - Xi, Putin, Erdogan, Kim, leaders who get their way, by hook or crook, as he aspires for the same “unchained rule”,” says Ash. “I also tend to explain away Trump’s relationship with Putin in the same way - Putin is a typical mafia boss that Trump might have come across in his NYC real estate dealings, and he might have learned there that you don’t cross them. Or you cross them at your personal peril.”
There is a precedent for a change of ownership of this pipeline. US investor and a veteran of the Russian market Stephen Lynch has already applied for permission to take the Nord Stream pipeline over, which currently belongs to Germany. The EU has attempted to block this move in its nineteenth sanctions package, but that package is stuck in committee due to vetoes from Hungary and a few other EU member states.
Donbas sticking point
Business deals involving Russo-US joint mineral ventures on each other’s territory will be very difficult to do in the current geopolitical environment, let alone changing the ownership of major energy infrastructure pipelines. However, the most serious logjam in talks appears to be political.
Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that during his call with Trump on October 16 just before the US president met with Zelenskiy, Putin once again insisted that Ukraine cede control to Russia of the entire Donbas region. As bne IntelliNews has opined, Trump is uninterested in Ukraine and sees it only as leverage in his negotiates with Putin, trading threats of military support for concessions from the Russian leader. While the talks with Putin are ongoing those threats are unlikely to materialise.
This is a red line for Ukraine and Trump has backed Zelenskiy no-go on this point, which also came up in Alaska. Putin offered to concede the parts of the other two regions the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) does not control as part of the bargain, which some analysts say was “progress”.
Kyiv will never agree to this, mainly as it has invested heavily into an extensive defensive line in Donbas that military analysts say will be extremely difficult for AFR forces to overcome. Bankova worries that giving this way would open the way for a rapid and largely unresisted advance for the AFR towards western Ukraine all the way up to the Dnipro River that cuts the country in half.
As Ukraine is once again running out of men, money and materiel Putin appears to have dug his heels in and believes that he can win eventual victory on the battlefield, not necessarily with superior military force, but simply by waiting for Ukraine’s mounting manpower and funding crises to peak, which could happen sooner than later as detailed by bne IntelliNews recently in a side-by-side comparison of the Ukrainian and Russian budgets.
The IMF recently announced it had underestimated Ukraine’s need for funding to continue the war. The government is already short between $8bn and $19bn (depending on war costs) to get to the end of this year and the IMF says it needs $65bn to get to the end of 2026.
Given that the US has de facto totally withdrawn from supporting Ukraine this sum entirely falls on Brussels, as bne IntelliNews reported Europe can’t afford to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine, as most EU countries are either in recession or approaching a crisis.
That leaves confiscating the frozen $300bn of Central Bank of Russia (CBR) funds using the so-called Reparation Loans, as the only way to bail Ukraine out, but that decision is fraught with problems and subject to disunity amongst the EU members.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said following Zelenskiy's meeting in the US that his trip turned out “tougher than expected” and “failed to deliver the results he counted on.”
“The visit didn’t go as Zelensky hoped,” Merz said, adding that only a strong Ukrainian army can bring peace, and surrender is not an option — because if Ukraine falls, Russia will strike another European country next.
“Back in September the EC made clear that Ukraine’s financing numbers no longer added up, a fact now reaffirmed by the IMF. The Fund has suggested its EFF for Ukraine faces a $65 billion shortfall. And actually Europe, Japan and Canada, are on the hook now for the full $100 billion annual Ukraine financing bill, for years to come,” says Ash.
“The cupboard is kind of bare now when it comes to funding Ukraine. There is no plan B, aside from the [Reparation Loans]. And without a plan b, and if the RL is not rolled out, then Ukraine is underfunded, risks losing the war, which would be a catastrophic blow to Europe,” says Ash.
Can Putin, under sanctions and an arrest warrant, enter the European Union?
Applicable EU sanctions and an outstanding arrest warrant cast doubt over Vladimir Putin's ability to fly to Budapest and meet Donald Trump.
Vladimir Putin is coming to Budapest. At least, that is what the invitation says.
After a lengthy phone call with Donald Trump on Thursday, the leaders of the United States and Russia tentatively agreed to meet in the EU and NATO capital sometime in the near future to discuss a possible end to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Whether that tête-à-tête happens is still unclear, but the news itself sent shockwaves across capitals, as the trip could mark Putin's first intrusion into the European Union's territory since early 2020 and further undercut the Western effort to isolate him.
But beyond the geopolitics driving the initiative, and the complex logistics that go into setting up a summit of this magnitude and consequence, one basic question emerges: Can Putin actually enter the European Union?
There are at least two different dimensions to consider.
The EU sanctions
Immediately after Russian troops broke through Ukraine's borders and marched to Kyiv, the EU rushed to apply a variety of sanctions to weaken the Kremlin's war machine.
Among the plethora of decisions, member states sanctioned hundreds of high-level Russian officials responsible for planning and overseeing the invasion. The blacklist entailed a prohibition on travel to the bloc and the freezing of personal assets.
Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, were also targeted, but with a caveat: only their assets were frozen, a symbolic measure given the obscurity around Putin's wealth. A travel ban was not introduced to maintain a minimum of diplomatic contacts.
According to then-High Representative Josep Borrell, Putin was the third world leader to be personally sanctioned by the bloc, following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
This means that, on that front, Putin would be allowed to land in Hungary.
However, there is an additional obstacle: the EU has effectively closed its airspace to Russian planes as part of its sweeping sanctions regime.
According to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the flight prohibition applies to aircraft operated by a Russian air carrier, registered in Russia and owned or chartered by any Russian person or entity, as well as to "non-scheduled" flights that can transport Russian citizens to business meetings or holiday destinations in the EU.
There are several exceptions to the rules, such as emergency landings or humanitarian purposes. Additionally, member states may grant case-by-case derogations.
Last year, Sergei Lavrov travelled to Malta for a meeting of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that proved highly controversial. The minister was forced to undertake a seven-hour detour to avoid European airspace until he arrived on the island, which permitted him to land due to diplomatic reasons.
By contrast, his spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, who is under a travel ban and an asset freeze, was denied an exemption after several capitals raised objections.
Putin could have two options: either he embarks on a long-winded detour to enter Hungary through the EU candidates in the Western Balkans, or he secures derogations from the EU members along the shorter route: Poland, which could prove tricky, and Slovakia, which would likely be easy.
Another option could entail flying through the Black Sea and Romania, a staunch ally of Kyiv that hosts a multinational NATO contingent.
The European Commission, which oversees the implementation of sanctions, has welcomed "any steps that lead to a just and lasting peace for Ukraine" while refraining from committing to facilitating the prospective summit.
It remains to be seen what levers Trump will exert to ensure the meeting goes ahead and whether this aspect had already been settled when the Budapest option was discussed between the American and Russian presidents.
Putin stepping on European soil again will, by itself, score a victory for the Russian leader after years of isolation and mark a daunting moment for the bloc as its leaders watch on as the Russian and American presidents meet in an EU member that has consistently tried to derail collective support for Ukraine.
But refusing Putin's travel to Budapest risks being exploited by the Kremlin to underline its narrative that it is the EU itself that seeks confrontation with Russia instead of peace. Kyiv's position on the summit may help influence the resolution of this controversy.
The ICC arrest warrant
Besides EU sanctions, which are directly enforceable, Putin is under an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC), based in The Hague.
Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Children's Rights Commissioner, are accused of being responsible for the deportation and transfer of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied areas to Russia, which constitutes a war crime.
Neither Russia nor the US is a party to the ICC and therefore does not recognise its jurisdiction. (The Kremlin has issued a warrant for the court's general prosecutor.)
Meanwhile, all EU countries have signed up to the Rome Statute and are, by default, expected to aid in its global fight against impunity.
Earlier this year, Hungary became the first member of the bloc to announce its intention to withdraw from the court in response to the arrest warrant placed on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Hungary, like the US, had contested.
The decision was made public shortly after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán received Netanyahu in Budapest and openly flouted the obligation to detain him.
But Hungary's withdrawal will not take effect until June 2026, one year after it filed the notification. In the interim period, the country remains bound by the tribunal.
"A withdrawal does not impact ongoing proceedings or any matter which was already under consideration by the Court prior to the date on which the withdrawal became effective," an ICC spokesperson told Euronews.
"When states have concerns in cooperating with the Court, they may consult the Court in a timely and efficient manner. However, it is not for states to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court's legal decisions."
Critically, the ICC lacks the means to enforce its warrants: it relies exclusively on the goodwill of individual governments. Last year, Mongolia, a party to the ICC, faced European recriminations after it hosted Putin for a state visit without any consequences.
A similar scenario unfolded when Orbán welcomed Netanyahu in April.
"If Putin lands (in Budapest), the arrest should be the logical consequence," said a senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"Nobody will be surprised if the Hungarians don't arrest Putin. It's not the first time that Hungary violates its (ICC) obligations. So yes, it's problematic."
The ICC often runs into the obstacle of diplomatic immunity.
On the one hand, Article 27 of the Rome Statute says the rules apply to all persons "without any distinction based on official capacity", including heads of state and government. On the other hand, Article 98 says that countries "may not proceed" with a warrant if it breaches their obligation to respect the immunity of a non-party state.
"If a country's domestic laws say that they cannot arrest a head of state, that a head of state has immunity, then arguably that applies," Mahmoud Abuwasel, Vice-President of the Hague Institute for International Justice, told Euronews in April.
"However, it's not up to that particular state to make that determination on its own. It has to consult with the ICC (and) the ICC may find that immunity does not apply for whatever reason."
France, while defending the tribunal, said it cannot arrest Netanyahu because Israel has never signed up to the Rome Statute. Hungary could now invoke a similar argument. In fact, the country has already promised safe passage for Putin.
