Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Thomas Hobbes And His Political Philosophy – Analysis

Historical, philosophical, and social foundations of Thomas Hobbes’ political thought


Thomas Hobbes by John Michael Wright

November 26, 2025 
By Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic

With his views within the history of political philosophy, the English political theorist Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) became a classic representative of the school of English empiricism. He built a comprehensive political science system based on the basic thesis that in the real world, there are only individual material bodies. With this view, Hobbes began a war against the prejudices of medieval realism, for which concepts were the true reality, while things were merely derived from them. It is important to note that Hobbes believed that there were three types of individual bodies: 1) Natural bodies (i.e. bodies of nature itself that do not depend on man and his activities); 2) Man (both a body of nature and the creator of an artificial, i.e. unnatural, body); and 3) The State (an artificial body as a product of man’s activities).

Hobbes’s most important political science work is Leviathan (1651) [full and original title: Leviathan or the matter, form and authority of government, London] in which he elaborates his philosophical views on the third body, i.e., the state, of course, in the context of the time in which he lived and witnessed. In short, in this work, Hobbes elaborated on the view that the natural state of life of the human race is a war of all against all (bellum omnium contra omnes). According to him, this view is followed by a natural law that leads to the overcoming of such a state and the creation of the state (i.e. political organization) through a social contract between citizens and the government, but also a contract that finally recognizes the indivisible and unlimited power of the sovereign (king) in the polity (state organization) for the protection of citizens and their rights. In other words, citizens voluntarily give up a (large) part of their natural freedom, which they transfer to the state for the purpose of protecting themselves from external and internal enemies. This would be a political form of voluntary and contractual “escape from freedom” that was masterfully deciphered by the German philosopher Erich Fromm (1900–1980) in his eponymous work Escape from Freedom (1941), using the example of German society during the era of National Socialism.

The social and historical foundations of Hobbes’s political thought were the frequent civil wars in England, in which King Charles I Stuart (1625–1649) lost both his crown and his head (which was cut off with an axe), the emergence of two political currents in the Parliament of England, in fact later parties – the Tories (conservatives) and the Whigs (liberals), as well as the proclamation of the Commonwealth (i.e., a republic, or “welfare state”, 1649–1660) but with the dictator Oliver Cromwell (1599–1658), who from 1653 bore the title of “Protector” (“Protector of England, Scotland and Ireland”). At that time, English capitalist and even colonial-imperialist development required protection from an extremely strong and all-powerful state in the form of a monarchy, i.e., royal absolutist power.

Basically, Thomas Hobbes did not criticize the current socio-political system, but rather tried to consolidate it and strengthen it as much as possible so that the entire state with its citizens could function as well as possible and be as efficient as possible, which would be for the benefit of all citizens who first enter into a contract on bilateral relations among themselves and then with the state. Even from a European perspective (civil wars between Protestants and Catholics), given that an atmosphere of fear and personal insecurity prevailed throughout Western Europe, Hobbes desired peace, security, and the protection of private property, so that to this end he became a pronounced statist, i.e., a supporter of the strongest possible state power over individual citizens.

In the late European Renaissance and early modern period, the strengthening of monarchical power through the development of enlightened monarchical absolutism (despotism) was an expression of the need for social and state unity and harmonious functionality in order to avoid medieval political anarchy, polytheism, and powerlessness. When monarchical absolutism is emphasized, it is generally not because of the illusion of the divine rights of the ruler, but because of the practical conviction that strong political unity can only be achieved within the framework of enlightened absolutist monarchism. Thus, when Hobbes supports the centralist absolutism of the king, he does not do so because he believes in the divine rights of kings or in the divine character of the principle of legitimacy, but because he believes that the cohesion of society and national unity can primarily be achieved in this way. Hobbes believes in the natural egoism of the individual, and a natural consequence of this belief was the view that only a strong and unlimited (absolutist/despotic) central authority of a monarch is capable of restraining and overcoming the centripetal forces that lead to the disintegration of the social community and the dissolution of the state.

Leviathan (1651) – political system (state) according to the contractual state

It should be noted that the starting point of Thomas Hobbes’ political philosophy is the same as that of all other representatives of the so-called “natural law and social contract” school. Hobbes, like many others from the same school, reduces the individual man to the order in nature, and the civil state to the state of a contract between citizens and the state, but which is formed by subjects who, by the very contract with the state (monarch), should become citizens, thus freeing themselves from the position and role of medieval lawless subjects (i.e. those who had only obligations to the government but no rights in relation to the same government) at least according to the liberal political philosophy.

For Hobbes, the basis of human nature is egoism and not altruism, as well as the need for communal life, but not as some kind of drive for communal life (as in wild animals that live in packs), but a need out of purely egoistic interest. In other words, organized political society in the form of a state arises as a result of the fear of some individuals of others, and not as a result of some natural inclination of some individuals towards others. Therefore, the state is an imposed socio-political organization as a product of a rational view of life, i.e., survival, of the human community in order to preserve individual interests, including bare lives. In other words, Hobbes denied happiness and pleasure as elements of the natural state or order. On the contrary, for him, the natural state is dangerous for human existence because it is animalistically cruel and murderous. A state in which everyone wars against everyone. In a natural order that operates according to the (animal) laws of nature (the right of the stronger), the basis of inter-living relations is war based on force and deception.

The next important characteristic of the natural order is the absence of ownership of things and possessions in the sense of the absence of a clear demarcation of what is whose. In other words, everything belongs to everyone, and what is whose depends, at least for a while, on force, robbery, and coercion over others. For Hobbes, all human beings are equal both physically and intellectually, and everyone has a right to everything, striving to preserve this natural right. However, since at the same time they strive to achieve power or at least dominance over others, a war of all against all inevitably occurs, so that human life becomes unbearable. The stronger strive to become even stronger and more influential, and the weaker strive to find protection from the stronger in order to survive. On the one hand, man strives to preserve his natural freedom, but on the other hand, to gain power over others. For Hobbes, this is the dictate of the instinct for self-preservation (freedom + dominance). The human race has the same drive for all things, and therefore, all people want the same things. Therefore, all people are a constant source of danger, insecurity, and fear for others in the brutal drive for survival. Therefore, human existence is reduced to a war of all against all (man is a wolf to man).

For Hobbes, the fundamental natural law is therefore the law of egoism, which directs the human individual to preserve himself with minimal losses and maximum gains at the expense of others. Natural law (ius naturale) is, therefore, the instinct for self-preservation, i.e., the freedom for everyone to use their own strength and skill to preserve their existence. However, the fundamental meaning of the existence of the human individual is the search for security. Therefore, for Hobbes, only interest, and not altruism (the inclination of man to man), is the fundamental natural motive in the search for a way out of the state of nature because it is becoming unbearable. In other words, natural freedom is becoming an increasingly heavy burden on human shoulders that must be endured.

Hobbes opposed the teachings of Aristotle and Grotius that man himself originally has an urge to associate, i.e., a social instinct. Contrary to both of them, Hobbes believes that man is originally a completely egoistic being and possesses only one urge, which is the urge for self-preservation. This urge drives man to realize his needs, to seize as much as possible from what nature itself puts at his disposal and, in accordance with this urge, to expand the sphere of his individual power as much and as far as possible. However, according to the very logic of things, in this intention of his, man encounters resistance from other people who are guided by the same natural (innate) urge, i.e., aspirations, and thus competition, struggle, and war arise between members of the human race, which threaten the physical existence of people. Therefore, if man lives in a state of nature, he is confronted with the reality of the war of all against all, i.e. a war that is naturally caused by the need and strength of the individual and a war in which the eventual lack of physical strength, i.e. superiority, is replaced by cunning and deception according to the principle that the end justifies the means.

The state of nature does not allow human reason to do anything that can in any way physically endanger his own life, as well as to neglect what can best preserve it. Hobbes acknowledges that human nature is such that he is always in conflict with various passions and drives, among which the desire for power is predominant. However, by using reason, man realizes in practice natural laws, among which the basic aspiration for peace is (human personality = conflict of passions and reason). People, following reason and natural laws that strive for man to preserve and ensure peace by all available means, conclude a socially beneficial contract or agreement among themselves. On the basis of such a contract, people within the same living community living in the same living space unite with the aim of forming a stronger community with joint forces on the basis of general harmony, which ultimately turns into a form of statehood that would ensure peace and security for them. Thus, political organization has two basic goals, i.e., functions: the defense of the community from external enemies and the preservation of order, peace, and security within the community itself on the internal level. Thus, a state (Greek polis) is created on the basis of a contract, and politics would be defined as the art of running a state for the purpose of effectively realizing its two basic functions.

Such a (state-forming) contract prevents wars within the same (socio-political) community if the contract is fulfilled, which is in accordance with natural law. The contract imposes on each individual of the community a large number of obligations and duties in addition to rights, the fulfillment of which is necessary for the preservation of peace, order, and security. Thus, an individual, a member of a socio-political community, necessarily loses an important part of his freedom, which he transfers to the state for the sake of his own security and preservation of existence. Here, it should be noted that the law or effect of the development of civilization and the progress of the human race in the historical context is that with the development of civilization, man increasingly loses his natural freedoms and vice versa.

Thomas Hobbes believed that natural laws are, in fact, moral laws. One of the basic moral principles for the efficient and just functioning of the socio-political system, i.e., contracts, is that one should not do to others what one does not want to be done to oneself by others. Moral laws are eternal and therefore unchangeable and therefore universal for all members of a community, so all individuals strive to harmonize their behavior towards others in accordance with such moral laws. However, in the state of nature, these moral laws are powerless since they do not oblige people to behave in accordance with them, but only until real opportunities are created for all other people to be governed by them. Finally, such conditions and opportunities are created by a contract that leads to the creation and functional organization of the state.

Transition from the state of nature to the contractual state of statehood

According to Hobbes, law appears by leaving the state of nature and moving to the contractual state of statehood. Statehood is the institution that enables the creation or definition of private property between members of the community according to the principle of “mine”/“yours”. The state, as an institution, therefore, is obliged to respect the property of others. Unlike the contractual state (civilization), in the state of nature (savagery), there was no reciprocal security or guarantor of that security. By creating the state/statehood as an institution, man renounced those rights that he/she enjoyed in the state of nature. In the state of statehood, man adheres to contracts because this is the only way to ensure peace and, therefore, personal security. Thus, man shifts to fulfilling moral obligations because they contribute to the preservation of personal security.

However, as Hobbes argues, the mere contract/agreement between the members of a community is not sufficient for a state to exist and function. This requires, in addition to the contract, complete internal unity. In other words, in order to form a unified will of people, they must cease to live as independent and separate individuals, i.e., in some way they must “drown” into the general currents of the state community and thus renounce an essential part of their independence, individualism, and natural freedom. Now Hobbes moves on to the main point of his political philosophy, which has its own specific historical background, namely the time in which Hobbes lived, arguing that individuals should retain neither will nor right for themselves because all power should pass to the state as a general and superior institution. Hobbes essentially demands that individuals in a state community be subjects of the state and not citizens of it. Therefore, subjects must obey the commandments/laws of the state because only then can they distinguish good from evil. This transfer of all individual rights and powers to state bodies leads to the formation of (state) sovereignty (suma potestas/sumum imperium).

In this way, according to Hobbes, individuals are connected by a double contract/agreement:

1) A contract according to which individuals associate with each other; and

2) A contract by which, as a social collective (associated individuals), they connect themselves with a state authority to which they surrender all power with an absolute and unconditional obligation and practice of submission to it (in Hobbes’s specific historical time, this specifically meant absolutist royal authority).

The main direct consequence of this double contract is that a single entity is formed from the plurality of individuals under the auspices of state authority. This state authority, or royal absolutist authority over subjects that has support in the church, Hobbes called Leviathan. It is a biblical monster or mortal God who, in Hobbes’s illustration, holds a bishop’s crosier in one hand and a sword in the other, i.e., attributes of spiritual and worldly power. For Hobbes, the state is neither a divine nor a supernatural creation. Man is the rational and most sublime work of nature, and the state-Leviathan is the most powerful human creation. The state itself is an artificial body compared to man, who is a natural body. The soul of the state is the supreme authority, its joints are the judicial and executive organs, the nerves are rewards and punishments, memory is the counselors, the mind is justice and laws, health is civil peace, illness is rebellion, and death is civil war.

Man created the state based on the voice of reason. According to Hobbes, the state is an artificial product of a rational move of the human race and not a natural fact, as many philosophers before him believed, such as, for instance, Aristotle. According to Hobbes, the state exercises absolute sovereignty in such a way that individuals, i.e., subjects, are alienated in the state itself, that is, they renounce their natural right and condition. In other words, by the very fact that individuals have concluded an agreement to submit to the absolute state power they have chosen, they renounce their rights, which they alienate by transferring them to the sovereign. The relationship of the individual to the state is in the form of political alienation of man in the sovereign, instead of the medieval alienation in God.

Government and its forms

Hobbes believed that his theoretical system of government could be applied in practice to all forms of state power. Specifically, for him, there were three forms of state power in their pure form: Monarchy (which he preferred); Aristocracy; and Democracy. He also allowed the establishment of parliament, but under the condition of a strong and unlimited monarch’s power. The function of such a monarch’s power is to abolish the “natural state” of the human race, i.e., the general war of all against all, with its comprehensive authority and total power, and thus ensure peace and individual security for all members of the socio-political community, i.e., the state. Freedom as the basic form of democracy leads to rebellion, anarchy, and disorder. Hobbes further believes that the monarch’s supreme power must be primarily of a sovereign character, which for him specifically meant that it should not be subordinated to any external authority (domination), subject to any law outside the law of the monarchy, whether natural or ecclesiastical.

However, in the final analysis, monarchical power, at least theoretically, was not totally unlimited, since the right to exist was for him the only right that allowed for a limitation of supreme power, i.e., obligatory submission to the sovereign. This is because the foundation of state power in any form was laid on the basis of existential survival and self-preservation. This form can in principle be monarchical, aristocratic, or democratic, but in no way mixed, i.e., the division of power between individual organs. In any case, power must be exclusively in the hands of the organ to which it is handed over. In this case, Hobbes denies the basic principle of modern democratic power, which is the division of power into legislative (parliament), executive (government), and judicial (judicial organs).

It should be noted that Thomas Hobbes was a bitter opponent of the revolution, believing that crafts and trade, and therefore, in his socio-political conditions, the rising capitalist production, would flourish under the conditions of an all-powerful state administration in which all disagreements and political struggles would be eliminated. He believed that everything that contributes to the common life of people is good and that everything that helps to maintain a strong state organization should be supported. Outside the state, passion, war, fear, and brutality reign (i.e., the state of nature), while reason, peace, beauty, and sociability reign in the state organization (i.e., civilization).

The object of the care of the state administration (absolute monarchy) must be the wealth of the citizens (i.e., subjects) created by the products of the land and water (sea), as well as work and thrift. The duty of the state is to ensure the well-being of the people. Hypothetically, the interests of the monarch should be identified with the interests of his subjects for the state to function optimally.

Synthetic remarks

Thomas Hobbes’s doctrine of the omnipotent power of the enlightened absolutist monarch is a product of a time when there was a strong need to organize a centralized and absolutist state (centripetal) organization that could, above all, successfully resist papal universalism but also serve the development of capitalism and the limitation of feudal (centrifugal) elements. From a purely economic point of view, the absolutist monarchy at that time and in the following century corresponded to the interests of the capitalist bourgeoisie and its efforts to create a large internal economic market without regional-feudal taxes and sales taxes. In this way, on the other hand, national unity would automatically be created as a guarantor of the functioning of the economy within the national framework (a single state).

Hobbes believed that the terrible natural state of war of all against all could be overcome because, in addition to passions, there is also reason in man, which teaches people to seek better and safer means for their biological, material, economic, and general life than those that lead to war of all against all. In other words, in order to ensure social peace and individual security, each individual in society must renounce the unconditional right that he/she possesses in the state of nature. Ultimately, man does this because his/her instinct for self-preservation dictates it. By this renunciation, man renounces and partakes of his natural freedom, i.e., the freedom given by natural law, because the entire social community submits to the general contract to live in a political community-state. Although all individuals accept such a contract/agreement, they do so in principle for purely egoistic reasons, but reason dictates that they do so and therefore obey certain basic virtues without which the survival of the state would be impossible (fidelity, gratitude, kindness, indulgence, etc.). Outside the state contract, i.e., the state, there are affects, war, fear, poverty, filth, loneliness, barbarism, etc. Unlike the state of nature (i.e., the state of the jungle, uncivilization and barbarism, but also total freedom in the banal sense), statehood is characterized by reason, peace, security, wealth, luxury, science, art, etc., but with the condition of drastic restriction and even abolition of natural freedoms.

Only with the formation of a state organization does the distinction between right and wrong, virtue and vice, good and evil arise. For Hobbes, the conclusion of a state-forming contract among members of a social community can be tacit, that is, informal. In any case, the conclusion of a state contract for Hobbes is of historical importance because it separates pre-history from history itself. In other words, as for many other researchers of the history of mankind, the transition from the state of the jungle (anti-civilization) to the state of statehood is also the transition to civilizational development and history in general. On the one hand, Hobbes quite correctly understood the nature of the original state of nature, but he could not explain the emergence of the state outside the framework of the social contract.

What is important to note about Hobbes’s theory of contract is that he believed that by concluding a social-state contract, the individuals who concluded it automatically transfer all their power and their rights to the state administration, i.e., the absolutist monarch. The state becomes omnipotent, despotic, and absolutist, and therefore, resembles the mythical biblical monster Leviathan. The contractual transfer of power from the individual to the state must be unconditional, and therefore, the state power itself must be unconditional. To be such, power must be in the hands of only one man, and that is the absolutist monarch who is both the sole administrator and the supreme judge. Thus, Hobbes derived from his contract theory the necessity of absolute monarchy as the only form of state administration that fully corresponds to the intentions of the social contract itself. Absolute monarchy also has other advantages over other forms of political organization that make it the best form of government. Thus, for example, in an absolute monarchy, power can be abused by only one person, in an aristocracy by several families, and in a democracy by many (here Hobbes does not distinguish between the possible depths of abuse and corruption). Furthermore, in an absolute monarchy, party struggles are more easily neutralized, and in the ideal case of total despotism, party and political struggles do not exist because there is a complete unity of society, state, and politics under the rule of one person. State secrets are also easier to keep in absolute monarchies.

An absolute monarch must also have absolute power, i.e., absolute right in all political-legal and moral relations in the state (“The state, that is me”!). The monarch (in Hobbes’ case, the king) is the one who has both the first and the last word in all ecclesiastical, religious, and moral matters. Thus, the monarch determines how God is to be worshipped; otherwise, what would be worshipable to one person would be blasphemous to another, and vice versa. Thus, society within the same state would be divided into hostile parties and would wage a struggle between these parties on religious issues (like, for instance, the Holy Roman Empire during the religious wars in the 16th and 17th centuries). In other words, Thomas Hobbes was a great opponent of any religious tolerance within the same political organization. For him, it is an unacceptable revolutionary act for someone to oppose the valid and only permitted religion based on their private religious convictions, because in this way, the very survival of the state as well as its normal functioning is called into question. Therefore, what is generally good and what is bad for society and the state is decided only by the monarch. Moral conscience consists in obedience to the monarch.

Thomas Hobbes, nevertheless, later allowed for limitations on royal absolutism, and believed that every power was just if it served the people, and that this could ultimately be even a republic (Commonwealth), but headed by an in fact absolutist figure (e.g., Oliver Cromwell). Hobbes’s theory of statehood turned from the medieval theological to the anthropological interpretation of the origin and foundations of the state. Hobbes’s teaching on the emergence of state organization based on contracts and the understanding that life would be better and safer in the state was contrary to medieval theological interpretations and understandings of the state, which identified the goals of the feudal class of large landowners with divine goals. Many philosophers have seen Hobbes’ theory of the state as the doctrine of the modern totalitarian state. However, Hobbes’s political philosophy is essentially individualistic and rationalistic.

Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic is an ex-university professor and a Research Fellow at the Center for Geostrategic Studies in Belgrade, Serbia.
Guinea-Bissau rocked by coup d'etat, arrest of president

Bissau (AFP) – Military officers in Guinea-Bissau declared they have "total control" of the coup-prone west African country Wednesday, closing its borders and suspending its electoral process three days after general elections, with military sources confirming its president's arrest.

Issued on: 26/11/2025 - RFI

Men flee the scene as gunfire rings out near the presidential palace in Bissau on November 26, 2025 © Patrick MEINHARDT / AFP

The officers' announcement followed heavy gunfire that rang out near the presidential palace earlier in the day, with men in military uniform taking over the main road leading to the building.

In the early afternoon, General Denis N'Canha, head of the presidential military office, told members of the press that a command "composed of all branches of the armed forces, was taking over the leadership of the country until further notice".

He read the announcement seated at a table and surrounded by armed soldiers.

Incumbent president Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who had been favoured to win Sunday's election, was arrested and being held at general-staff headquarters where he is being "well-treated", a military source told AFP.

A senior officer who also confirmed the arrest, added that Embalo had been detained along "with the chief of staff and the minister of the interior".


Men in military uniform took over the main road leading to the presidential palace © Patrick MEINHARDT / AFP

Embalo and opposition candidate Fernando Dias had already each declared victory in the presidential race, with official provisional results expected Thursday.

The tumultuous west African country has experienced four coups since independence, as well as multiple attempted coups.

N'Canha, in his declaration, claimed to have uncovered a plan to destabilise the country "involving national drug lords" that had included "the introduction of weapons into the country to alter the constitutional order".

In addition to halting "the entire electoral process", he said military forces had suspended "all media programming", closed "land, air, and sea" borders, and imposed a mandatory curfew.

Guinea-Bissau is among the world's poorest countries and is also a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a trade facilitated by the country's long history of political instability.

Guinea-Bissau's National Electoral Commission (CNE) was additionally attacked by unidentified armed men on Wednesday, commission communications official Abdourahmane Djalo told AFP.
Repeat crises

More than 6,780 security forces, including from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Stabilisation Force, were deployed for Guinea-Bissau's vote and the post-election period.

The country's last presidential vote in 2019 was marked by a four-month post-election crisis as both main candidates claimed victory.

The country's 2025 election notably excluded PAIGC and Pereira, who were struck from the final list of candidates and parties by the Supreme Court, which said they had filed their official applications too late.

In 2023, Embalo dissolved the legislature -- which was dominated by the opposition -- and has since ruled by decree.

The opposition says PAIGC's exclusion from the presidential and parliamentary elections amounts to "manipulation" and maintains that Embalo's term expired on February 27, five years to the day after his inauguration.

© 2025 AFP


'I have been deposed,' Guinea-Bissau's President Embalo confirms to FRANCE 24

Issued on: 26/11/2025
By: Anaelle JONAH

Guinea-Bissau's outgoing President Umaro Sissoco Embalo attending a ceremony on February 26, 2025 © Yury Kochetkov, AP


Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo told FRANCE 24 on Wednesday that he was deposed after military officers claimed taking total control of the country, citing the need to clarify the situation before returning to constitutional order. Hours earlier, gunfire rang out near the presidential palace, an AFP journalist said.

GLOBALIZATION 

Two big-name Turkish textile firms declare bankruptcy amid turmoil

Two big-name Turkish textile firms declare bankruptcy amid turmoil
Shutting up shop. A presentation of "Naz" shop window wares on company website. / Naz Orme Kumas website.
By bne IntelliNews November 25, 2025

Two prominent Turkish textile and garment companies, Naz Orme Kumas, known as "Naz", and Fame Tekstil, have declared bankruptcy. They failed to overcome a prolonged financial crisis, business daily Dunya has reported.

Rising costs, currency volatility and mounting tariff and non-tariff barriers have reportedly pushed producers into a grim situation, with the erosion of employment and an acceleration of a shift of production to Egypt, where manufacturing costs are lower.

Naz Orme, founded in 1996, was a major supplier of fabrics to global brands such as Zara, Marks & Spencer and H&M, with a monthly output of 800 tonnes. Fame Tekstil, established in 1992, specialised in ready-to-wear garments.

Both companies previously entered concordat (a local form of bankruptcy) proceedings in an attempt to restructure debts, but after failing to meet obligations within the court-granted timeframe, they were forced into liquidation.

According to data from the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (Tepav) cited by Dunya, job losses in the country’s manufacturing industry have this year surpassed 114,000 (with 350,000 jobs shed in the past three years) and registered employment in the textile sector fell by 1.3% in August. Employers argue that the minimum wage of TRY 22,204 ($521) does not correlate with export revenues calculated at fixed exchange rates, further squeezing margins.

As a result, Turkish production is increasingly relocating to Egypt, where companies benefit from significantly lower labour costs, with the local minimum wage equivalent to just TRY 6,400.

Industry representatives stress, however, that the challenges extend beyond cost pressures, pointing to diplomatic and administrative hurdles.

Hayrettin Gumuskaya, chairman of the Textile, Leather and Ready-to-Wear Sector Board at Turkey’s Independent Industrialists and Businesspersons’ Association (Musiad), was reported as noting that Turkish exporters face additional tariffs and non-tariff barriers in markets such as Algeria, making exports nearly impossible.

Meanwhile, finished garments from Egypt are rapidly penetrating the Turkish market, he said.

Gumuskaya was further reported as highlighting how quotas, lengthy customs procedures, surcharges, and bureaucratic obstacles have made trade increasingly unpredictable, while unexplained rises in logistics costs in relation to Azerbaijan have further strained producers.

Hagia Sophia: Monumental Heritage Or Construction Site? A Critical Look At The Crane Controversy – OpEd


The dome of the Hagia Sophia undergoing restoration, Istanbul, Turkey. 
Photo Credit: David Bjorgen, Wikimedia Commons

November 26, 2025 
By Haluk Direskeneli

Hagia Sophia (Ayasofya), built in 532–537 under Emperor Justinian I, is more than a religious building. Its architects — Anthemios of Tralles and Isidoros of Miletos — designed a massive dome that was considered a marvel of engineering for its time. Later, in the 16th century, the Ottoman master architect Mimar Sinan recognized structural stresses in the building and added external support buttresses. Those interventions helped preserve Hagia Sophia’s stability over centuries.

Today, Hagia Sophia stands not just as a relic of ancient architecture, but as a preserved monument shaped by centuries of architectural care and engineering. The building’s survival is thanks to the original Byzantine design, Ottoman respect and reinforcement, and Sinan’s structural insights.

What’s Happening Now — and Why It Matters

Recently, photos and videos have shown heavy cranes and trucks inside Hagia Sophia’s interior, used for ongoing restoration and reinforcement work. Authorities say the equipment is needed to replace lead roofing on the main dome and to install internal supports for earthquake-strengthening work. They also claim that a multi-layer protective floor platform was installed to carry heavy loads.¹

Yet these developments have triggered serious concern among historians, architects and conservation specialists. The core issue: Hagia Sophia is not a modern building, but a complex historic structure with ancient masonry, layered floors, mosaics, and centuries-old structural elements.

Why Some Experts Are Worried

• Hagia Sophia’s floor is not a simple concrete slab. Beneath the surface there may be mosaics, old stone pavements, or even structural hollows — not ideal conditions for bearing heavy concentrated loads.²

• The “protective floor platform” whose installation is claimed has not been independently documented or publicly verified with detailed technical data. Some photos published show only simple flat panels, not a reinforced grid or load-distributing substructure.³

• Heavy machinery — cranes, trucks, loading/unloading operations — generates not only vertical load but also vibrations and dynamic stresses. In ancient masonry structures like Hagia Sophia, such stresses can cause micro-cracks, loosening of mortar joints, displacement of stone blocks or mosaics, and long-term structural weakening.⁴

• International standards of heritage conservation generally recommend minimal intervention and avoidance of heavy machinery in ancient monuments, especially when the original load-bearing logic is fragile or not fully known.⁵

The Key Question: Restoration — or Risk?

The issue is not restoration itself — which is often necessary in historic monuments — but how it is done. When a thousand-year-old architectural masterpiece becomes a temporary construction site, the risk is not only physical damage but also the loss of heritage value.

Hagia Sophia’s resilience over centuries depended on careful balancing of structure, materials and engineering. Each addition — from Byzantine masons to Ottoman builders to Sinan’s buttresses — respected that balance. Heavy cranes and modern vehicles inside the sacred space might disturb it.

What Should Be Done Instead

• Before proceeding, full independent structural and geotechnical analysis should be conducted: surveys of the floor, subsurface mapping (e.g. ground-penetrating radar), calculation of load-bearing capacity, and dynamic stress tests.

• Use of lighter, minimally invasive tools and methods — manual scaffolding, rope-and-pulley systems, small-scale lifts — should replace heavy cranes whenever possible.

• All restoration plans, engineering data and risk assessments must be shared transparently with heritage conservation experts and made publicly available.

• Restoration must adhere to international heritage conservation principles: prioritize protection, preservation, and minimal intervention over speed or convenience.

Hagia Sophia is not just a building. It is a living record of human history, faith, architecture and engineering brilliance spanning nearly fifteen centuries. Restoring it is a duty. But this duty must be carried out with utmost respect — not as a modern construction job, but as a careful conservation effort.

When cranes and trucks enter holy halls built by master architects of ancient and medieval times — the work is not mere maintenance. It becomes a test of whether heritage can survive modern engineering pressures, or whether it will be an irreversible loss.

The question is not “Can we restore it quickly?” — but “Can we preserve it safely, for a thousand more years?”

FootnotesAuthorities claim a multi-layer protective platform was installed on the floor to carry heavy loads safely.
Historic reports and conservation assessments indicate that beneath the visible floor of Hagia Sophia there are mosaics, old stone slabs and possible structural hollows.
Photographic evidence made public shows only flat floor panels; no detailed diagrams or structural subgrid have been shared.
Experts warn that the vibrations and dynamic loads from heavy machinery can lead to micro-cracks, loosening of mortar joints, displacement of structural stones, or damage to mosaics and decorative surfaces.
International heritage conservation norms emphasize minimal intervention and caution against heavy equipment inside ancient monuments.



Haluk Direskeneli

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP, Entergy), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
PREVENTABLE

Dozens killed as fire engulfs Hong Kong high-rise residential blocks

The Association for the Rights of Industrial Accident Victims expressed "deep concern" over Bamboo Scaffolding-related fires, noting similar incidents in April, May and October.


At least 36 people died and an unknown number were trapped Wednesday after a massive fire spread across multiple high-rise apartment buildings in Hong Kong's northern Tai Po district, the city's fire services said, adding that a 37-year-old firefighter was among the dead.


Issued on: 26/11/2025 
By: FRANCE 24

Smoke rises from Wang Fuk Court as a huge fire engulfs the residential estate in Hong Kong's New Territories on November 26, 2025. © Chan Long Hei, AP

A huge fire that ripped through a Hong Kong housing estate has killed at least 36 people, city leader John Lee said on Thursday, adding that 279 people were unaccounted for.

"As of now, this fire has caused the deaths of 36 people and left 279 people unaccounted for. There are 29 people still hospitalised, with seven of them in critical condition," Lee said at a press briefing in the early hours of Thursday.

Massive flames first took hold on bamboo scaffolding on several apartment blocks of the Wang Fuk Court estate in Tai Po, a district in the northern part of the Chinese financial hub, before engulfing other parts of the buildings.

An AFP reporter heard loud cracking sounds, possibly from the burning bamboo, and saw thick plumes of smoke billowing from at least five out of the estate's eight buildings as flames and ash reached high into the sky.

"There's nothing that can be done about the property. We can only hope that everyone, no matter old or young, can return safely," a Tai Po resident surnamed So, 57, said near the scene of the fire.

"It's heartbreaking. We're worried there are people trapped inside."

The blaze showed no signs of slowing after dark, with flames inside the tower blocks casting an eerie orange glow on the surrounding buildings.

Police said earlier they had received reports of residents trapped in buildings, according to Hong Kong media reports.

Officers at the scene said on the condition of anonymity that they were unable to confirm whether there were still residents stuck in the buildings by nightfall, adding that "firefighters aren't able to go in".

A 37-year-old firefighter lost contact for around half an hour and was found with burns on his face, and was certified dead after being rushed to hospital, according to Director of Fire Services Andy Yeung.

Authorities declared a five-alarm fire – the highest level – as night fell.


'Dare not leave'

A residential unit owner in his 40s said that the government needed to help those made homeless by the blaze.

"The fire is not yet under control and I dare not leave, and I don't know what I can do," he said.

The South China Morning Post newspaper said police had begun evacuating two buildings in another residential estate nearby.

Authorities set up a casualty hotline and opened two temporary shelters in nearby community centres for evacuated residents.

Sections of a nearby highway were also closed by the firefighting operation.

"Residents nearby are advised to stay indoors, close their doors and windows, and stay calm," the Fire Services Department said.

"Members of the public are also advised to avoid going to the area affected by the fire."

Four people were hospitalised after a separate fire on the scaffolding of a building in Hong Kong's central business district last month.

Hong Kong has some of the world's most densely populated – and tallest – apartment blocks.


Deadly fires were once a regular scourge in densely populated Hong Kong, especially in poorer neighbourhoods.

However, safety measures have been ramped up in recent decades and such fires have become much less commonplace.

The Association for the Rights of Industrial Accident Victims expressed "deep concern" over scaffolding-related fires, noting similar incidents in April, May and October.

Authorities have not yet spoken about the possible causes of the blaze.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
UK allows new oil, gas drilling in existing North Sea fields

London (AFP) – Britain's government signalled Wednesday it could issue permits for oil and gas extraction around existing North Sea fields, despite a promise to halt licences for new production in the area.


Issued on: 26/11/2025 - FRANCE24

Britain's centre-left Labour government had promised to halt issuing licences for new production in the North Sea © ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP/File

Under its energy transition plans, "the government will introduce new Transitional Energy Certificates which will enable limited oil and gas production on or near to existing fields," the government said in a statement.

However, the existing "ban on new licences will end new exploration for offshore oil and gas fields", it added, reiterating a key campaign promise aimed at curbing deadly climate change.

With abundant onshore and offshore wind power, Britain is among Europe's leaders in renewable energy but still relies on natural gas for more than a third of its energy mix.

The announcement comes as part of a plan to develop renewable energy in the North Sea and preserve jobs in the region.


The government said it aims to "manage existing oil and gas fields for their lifespan and not to issue new licences to explore new fields".

US President Donald Trump, a critic of renewables and advocate of reviving oil exploitation, has repeatedly urged Britain to drill more North Sea oil and gas.

© 2025 AFP
Climate change 'increasingly threatens' dynamic Spanish economy: OECD

Madrid (AFP) – The consequences of climate change such as last year's deadly floods "increasingly threaten" the growth of Spain's economy, one of the developed world's most dynamic, the OECD warned on Wednesday.


Issued on: 26/11/2025 - FRANCE24

The October 2024 floods killed more than 200 people and caused severe damage in the eastern region of Valencia © Jose Jordan / AFP


Spain has in recent years endured longer and more intense summer heatwaves, while fiercer autumn storms have drenched the country with torrential rain -- extreme weather events that scientists attribute to human-driven climate change.

"Rising temperatures, frequent and intense droughts, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires increasingly threaten the country's future growth, environment, and public health," the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a report.

The Paris-based organisation said "climate-related disasters have increasing economic costs" and that "enhancing resilience will require targeted adaptation investments and robust infrastructure".

The October 2024 floods killed more than 200 people and caused severe damage in the eastern region of Valencia, an industrial and agricultural motor of Spain's economy.


Faced with an increased flood risk, the OECD suggested "restricting new development in high-risk flood zones, discouraging further exposure, and expanding flood protection infrastructure" to mitigate the damage.

Spain has been outstripping its peers, recording 3.5 percent growth in 2024, and the economy is predicted to expand 2.9 percent this year -- more than double the eurozone forecast.

The OECD highlighted the contribution of migration to this performance but also the challenges of an ageing population and an unemployment rate of 10.45 percent, the European Union's highest.

The OECD said "structural reforms" were needed to increase GDP per inhabitant and strengthen budget stability, pointing to the use of digital tools as artificial intelligence spreads.

© 2025 AFP
COP disappointment
Published November 26, 2025 
DAWN


SHOULD we even be surprised? The 30th Conference of the Parties in Belém, which wrapped up on Nov 22, proved more of a let-down than the summit it aspired to be. The UN’s critical assessment of “meagre results” has openly challenged governments and exposed the shortcomings of the conference. Two weeks of negotiations — and three decades of climate diplomacy — have not bridged the gap between what science demands and what states deliver. The UN chief’s warning that today’s climate inaction may one day be viewed as “a crime against humanity” is no exaggeration. Yet COP30 was not without its gains. The challenge now is to ensure these achievements do not collapse for lack of follow-through.

The summit unfolded against an unusual backdrop: the US stayed away from negotiations, China signalled that its emissions may be peaking, and more than 100 countries submitted updated climate plans. These plans were somewhat stronger, but still not enough to keep warming within 1.5°C. This mix of small advances and deep geopolitical divides shaped the overall mood in Belém. The Brazilian presidency kept the talks moving by presenting COP30 as a “COP of roadmaps” rather than a summit of breakthroughs. With no agreement on phasing out fossil fuels or on how much money should flow to developing nations, countries opted for longer-term pathways on fair transitions, nature finance and ocean-based action. Over 80 states backed a statement supporting a shift away from fossil fuels, signalling willingness to move. Several initiatives emerged. The Belém Action Mechanism and the Blue NDC Challenge were launched to help countries include forests, ecosystems and oceans in their climate plans. For the first time, the COP text recognised the link between climate action and global trade — a sign that decarbonisation is now tied to how countries shape industries and supply chains. But the gaps are hard to ignore. A fossil-fuel phase-out was again rejected. Adaptation indicators were weakened at the last moment, undoing two years of technical work. And the new climate-finance goal, estimated at $1.3tr a year by 2035, still lacks firm commitments. This lack of ambition triggered the UN’s blunt criticism.

For Pakistan, the implications are especially serious. The country has updated its climate plan and is preparing its second National Adaptation Plan, yet access to finance remains tied to tough conditions. The global pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035 is welcome but too late for a country facing harsher heatwaves, water stress and incomplete post-flood recovery. And while external support matters, we must strengthen our own systems — from data and enforcement to climate-proof planning — to build resilience. COP30 ended with roadmaps that must turn to real action. What matters now is implementation.

Published in Dawn, November 26th, 2025


COP-out

Huma Yusuf 
Published November 24, 2025
DAWN

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

ANOTHER COP, another blow to the planet. The annual UN conference increasingly seems a ritual designed to accept planetary demise rather than an opportunity to course-correct. For Pakistan, this year’s COP has highlighted the challenges of juggling realpolitik with managing the increasingly terrifying impacts of the climate crisis. In this context, our state’s long-honed capacity for cognitive dissonance serves it well.

Pakistan at COP speaks on behalf of the Vulnerable 20 (V20) group of countries disproportionately affected by climate change; usually aligns with the Like-Minded Developing Countries that call for differentiated responsibilities for states in terms of taking responsibility for and tackling climate change, and is formally part of the G77 and China group, which calls for climate justice, but increasingly in the context of economic opportunity and technology transfer. Navigating these overlapping allegiances just about works. But from a foreign policy perspective, Pak­istan’s challenges at COP stem from the fact that its critical patron states have divergent positions on the climate crisis.

In the US, President Donald Trump has declared climate change to be the “greatest con job ever” and withdrawn America from the Paris Climate Agreement. Instead, he is betting on AI and cryptocurrencies, which require water-depleting and earth-warming energy supplies at volumes that do not square with climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Saudi Arabia, with whom Pakistan has managed a defence-focused reset, is leading the charge to defang COP agreements, pushing this past fortnight to ensure that the commitment to phase out fossil fuels is not even mentioned. For China, on the other hand, its progressive stance on climate change, particularly in comparison with the US, has become a calling card. Beijing sees its (relative) environmental evangelism as a pitch for global leadership and an opportunity to claim the moral high ground vis-à-vis hypocritical Western countries. Most importantly, climate mitigation is a major economic opportunity as Chinese EVs, batteries, solar panels and wind turbines enjoy a near monopoly in global supply chains for the renewable and e-mobility sectors. China showed up in force at this year’s COP, pushing for open green trade as the way forward.

What is Islamabad to do when it comes to COP?

Moving between Washington, Riyadh and Beijing, and oscillating between offering up environmentally unfriendly mines, cryptomining capacity and defence production facilities, and dealing with climate-induced national disasters, what is Islamabad to do when it comes to COP?

No matter the advantages of reviving close ties with Washington and Riyadh, Pakistan cannot deny that it is a victim of the climate crisis. The Climate Risk Index 2026 retains it on the list of the 20 most affected countries in terms of the economic and human toll of the climate crisis (taking a 30-year view from 1995-2024).

In another demonstration of our growing foreign policy prowess (or is it cynicism?), we have found a balance. At COP30, we have focused on demands for more adaptation finance (read: damage the planet if you must, but help us pay for the collateral damage). This aligns with a key theme of this year’s COP, which was an ask by developing nations and emerging economies to triple adaptation finance commitments from $40 billion to $120bn. This still falls short of the global need of between $210bn and $360bn annually, which is immense and growing. But it represents a sizeable shift from the COP29 ask of $300bn in climate finance comm­i­tments overall (inc­luding adaptation, resilience and mitigation) by developed nations by 2035.

No doubt Pakistan needs adaptation fin­ance to help its communities and ecosystems adapt to the harsh realities of a world that will warm by two degrees above pre-industrial temperatures. This financing supports everything from climate disaster-resilient infrastructure to the health systems needed to respond to the epidemics that will be unleashed by climate shifts. But while demanding adaptation finance, Pakistan should heed the warnings of activists who point out that the conditionalities attached to such financing test the bounds of national sovereignty (for example, by enabling external actors to guide a nation’s planning for food security).

There is also concern that as climate justice is repositioned as an economic opportunity for some, climate-vulnerable countries will find themselves reframed as key markets for green products, at risk of being trapped in further debt cycles linked to green transition. The intersection of politicking and climate change responsiveness presents as many perils as opportunities; let’s hope Pakistan can find a way to deftly navigate these.


X: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, November 24th, 2025

COP30 didn’t go far enough to address the Climate Crisis – Carbon Brief

COP30 didn’t go far enough to address the Climes Crisis – Carbon Brief
the COP30 climate summit didn't go far enough to address the accelerating Climate Crisis. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews November 25, 2025

The UN climate summit in Belém concluded with delegates agreeing to a series of measures aimed at accelerating climate action, but the outcomes fell short of what many scientists and vulnerable countries had hoped for. According to Carbon Brief, which published its in-depth analysis on November 24, the final decisions at COP30 reflect "incremental progress" but also highlight a "growing gap between ambition and implementation".

“Billed as a COP of “truth” and “implementation”, the event – which took place 10 years on from the Paris Agreement – was seen as a moment to showcase international cooperation,” Carbon Brief said. “Yet, the lack of consensus on key issues and rising salience of “unilateral trade measures” and financial shortfalls revealed deep divisions.”

The summit comes at a key time. The Climate Crisis is accelerating. The IPCC says that the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature increases to less than 1.5°C-2°C above the pre-industrial benchmark has already been missed and temperature increases are on course to reach a catastrophic 2.7C-3.1C by 2050. At that point extreme temperature events will become routine and large parts of the world will become uninhabitable. Concerted and dramatic action is needed to prevent a global eco-catastrophe and none is being taken.

Held in Brazil’s Amazon region, COP30 was widely viewed as a symbolic opportunity to centre the role of forests, Indigenous communities and nature in climate diplomacy. To avoid the traditional and time-consuming “agenda fight” the Brazilian team told the parties that the presidency would hold consultations on four items some blocs had sought to add to the agenda. These “big four” were on trade measuresclimate financeambitions to keep global warming to 1.5C and data transparency.

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first made his bid to host an “Amazon COP” at COP27 in Egypt in 2022, fresh from an election victory. Speaking in front of a cheering crowd, he laid out a vision for reversing deforestation in Brazil and hosting a rainforest COP in 2025, telling delegates: “I advocate in a very strong way that the conference should be held in the Amazon.”

However the location’s symbolic power was not matched by the political weight of the final agreements.

"The final text includes a recognition of the need to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, but crucially avoids any firm commitment to phase out fossil fuels," Carbon Brief reported. This omission is likely to be one of the summit’s biggest failures.

Instead, countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems" in a manner consistent with net zero targets.

"This language is even weaker than that used at COP28 in Dubai, where countries had at least agreed to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ without the qualifier,” says Carbon Brief.

Lula used his speech at the event to call for “roadmaps” away from deforestation and fossil fuels – he later repeated this in his speech during COP30’s opening, with a focus on a fossil-fuel roadmap and another to fight deforestation.

COP30 saw countries agree to a new “Global Mutirão” decision, a text calling for a tripling of adaptation finance by 2035 (later than some hoped), a new “Belem mission” to increase collective actions to cut emissions. “Mutirão” is a Portuguese word originating in the Indigenous Tupi-Guarani language that refers to people working together towards a common aim.

The first draft drew immediate condemnation from a group of 82 nations that wanted to see a more ambitious and certain call for a fossil-fuel “roadmap” included in the mutirão.

Among other things, the Global Mutirão includes:

  • “Calls for” tripling of adaptation finance by 2035, 5yrs later than earlier draft
  • No explicit ref to fossil fuels or roadmaps…
  • …but ties “implementation accelerator” to “UAE consensus”
  • “Accelerator” to report to COP31
  • “Calls on” parties to “full implementation of NDCs while striving to do better”
  • “Reiterates resolve” to pursue efforts to 1.5°C and to minimise overshoot
  • “Emphasises” importance of “halting and reversing deforestation by 2030”, but no roadmap
  • “Reaffirms” unilateral trade measures “should not” discriminate arbitrarily
  • 3x trade dialogues
  • Presidency-led “Belém Mission 1.5°C for NDC/adaptation ambition, reporting to COP31
  • Ministerial roundtable on $300bn finance goal
  • Two-year work prog on finance around Article 9 “as a whole”
  • “Recognises…best available science…as provided by the IPCC”

One of the biggest negotiated outcomes at COP30 concerned efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change, with Corrêa do Lago dubbing it the “COP of adaptation”. The key “global mutirão” decision at the talks “calls on” countries to triple adaptation finance by 2035. In 2021, a target to double adaptation finance to $40bn by 2025 was agreed at COP26 in Glasgow, UK. However, a recent report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that, in 2023, developed nations provided just $26bn in adaptation finance to developing nations.

The key global mutirão decision at COP30 aims to keep the limit of 1.5°C “within reach”, but says that the “carbon budget” for this is “now small and being rapidly depleted”. For the first time in a COP text, it also acknowledges that there is likely to be an “overshoot” of 1.5°C, saying that both the extent and duration of this needs to be “limit[ed]”.

These measures fall well short of the outcomes that had been demanded by the EU and small-island states among others. Pointedly, the decision does not mention fossil fuels at all, or a roadmap to transition away from their use.

On finance, negotiators reaffirmed their support for a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) to replace the $100bn per year pledge first made in 2009. However, there was little clarity on the size or structure of the new funding target. "The text does not specify a number, nor how much should come from public versus private sources," Carbon Brief wrote.

A key outcome from Belém was the formal launch of the Loss and Damage Fund, initially agreed at COP27. Carbon Brief described the activation of the fund as "a major diplomatic win for vulnerable countries," though it added that "initial pledges remain small relative to the scale of need".

The summit also saw parties agree on the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, a process intended to measure progress against global climate goals. According to Carbon Brief, "the stocktake clearly shows the world is off track to limit warming to 1.5°C", but the language used in the decision text "stopped short of mandating stronger national targets".

Looking ahead to COP31 in Turkey, Carbon Brief noted that the path forward would likely depend on political will and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

"The outcomes in Belém underline how far there is to go—not only in setting targets, but in delivering on them,” concluded Carbon Brief.

Can Global Climate Diplomacy Still Deliver? – Analysis

COP30 Summit in Brazil. Photo Credit: BRUNO PERES/AGÊNCIA BRASIL

November 26, 2025 
By Ramesh Jaura

When world leaders arrived in Belém for COP30 on 10 November, the symbolism was clear. Delegates entered a city where the air is thick with humidity, the scent of river mud blends with diesel, and the vast Amazon rainforest stretches toward the Atlantic. This was the perfect place to highlight what is at risk.

Belém delivered only modest advances—more money for adaptation, new forest and health partnerships, and renewed attention to the world’s most climate-vulnerable communities—while sidestepping the central question haunting climate diplomacy for decades: how fast will the whirlwind of fossil fuels come to an end? Despite Brazil’s vision of COP30 as an “Amazon COP” centring forests, Indigenous rights, and the Global South, the gap between ambition and reality soon became apparent.

In the words of one negotiator, “It’s like we’re rearranging the furniture while the house burns.”


A Summit in the Shadow of a Forest

Hosting COP in the Amazon sent a clear message. Brazil aimed to shift global attention from conference centres and oil-rich capitals to the heart of the climate crisis. President Lula da Silva saw Belém as an opportunity for Brazil to regain climate leadership after years of environmental setbacks.

However, Belém also revealed some logistical problems. Some delegations had trouble finding places to stay, and civil society groups feared that high costs would exclude many of the voices the conference aimed to support. For diplomats from Pacific islands and sub-Saharan Africa, it was another sign that climate justice often conflicts with real-world challenges.

Even so, the Amazon was at the centre of every discussion. Delegates saw posters of Indigenous guardians, listened to riverboats at night, and sat under humid skies that made talks about “adaptation metrics” feel very real.Subscribe


A Process Haunted by Old Promises


COP30 did not happen in isolation. It came after ten years of slow, step-by-step progress.

Paris 2015 created the framework: a global agreement with high temperature goals, but only voluntary national pledges. There was no enforcement or penalties. The gap between ambition and action was there from the start.

Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh mentioned coal for the first time. It was a timid step, but notable.

Dubai 2023 finally mentioned fossil fuels in the official text. Some called this “historic,” but critics pointed out it had no deadlines or real consequences.

Baku 2024 focused on money, delivering new finance goals but leaving vulnerable countries deeply unsatisfied.

As COP30 began, negotiators brought not just their luggage but also unresolved issues, knowing this summit had to achieve more than just symbolic gestures. After ten years of slow progress, the need for fundamental change was urgent.

Such a shift was not delivered.


What COP30 Actually Delivered

A Bigger Adaptation Pot—But Still Too Small

A key result was a promise to triple adaptation funding by 2035. This sounds ambitious and will help pay for flood defences, heat shelters, and drought monitoring. But for small island nations already losing land to rising seas, waiting for this support feels far too slow.

Negotiators also agreed on global adaptation indicators. Supporters see this as a move toward accountability. Critics call it “spreadsheet diplomacy,” saying it is a technical solution that hides a political failure.

The Silence on Fossil Fuels


The most telling part of COP30 was what didn’t appear in the decision text.

The lack of a commitment to phase out fossil fuels was the most critical outcome of COP30. Major oil and gas producers blocked all commitments: there was no fossil phase-out, no coal end-date, no limits on new oil and gas, and only support for renewables. This left the main competing economy unaffected, even with intense pressure from the EU, Colombia, and climate-vulnerable countries.

For a conference held in the world’s most significant carbon sink, the omission felt particularly jarring.

Forests, Health and Indigenous Rights: The Brighter Spots

Belém did yield meaningful advances in areas long neglected by climate negotiations:

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility aims to raise billions for forest protection.A major push to secure land rights for Indigenous communities—a proven safeguard against deforestation.

The Belém Health Action Plan is the first global effort linking climate adaptation directly to public health.

These efforts—forest finance, Indigenous land rights, and connecting health to climate—are real progress. They show that climate diplomacy is expanding beyond just emissions to include justice and stewardship.

Carbon Markets: Progress Without Trust

Distrust still slows down efforts to finalise rules for international carbon markets. Negotiators in Belém made some progress after years of technical debate, but developing countries remain concerned. They fear that these markets will allow wealthy countries to offset emissions rather than actually reduce them. While COP30 moved the discussion forward, it did not do enough to address these ongoing concerns.

The Moral Outcry: Guterres’ Sharpest Warning Yet

UN Secretary-General António Guterres came to Belém with a clear warning: failing to keep the 1.5°C goal alive is a “moral failure” and “deadly negligence.” His speeches were urgent, like someone calling for the last lifeboat before a ship sinks.

He criticised fossil fuel interests for slowing progress and said governments were prioritising corporate profits over the planet’s survival. In Belém, he also supported the idea of a “Global Ethical Stocktake,” reminding everyone that climate diplomacy is not just about numbers but also about fairness, responsibility, and survival.

His words resonated, but they did not move negotiators significantly. The political tug-of-war remained stronger than the ethical appeal.

The Geopolitics No One Could Ignore

Three political forces shaped COP30 from behind the scenes:The absence of the United States as a full Paris participant under President Trump. Without the world’s second-largest emitter fully engaged, ambitions contracted.
A coordinated pushback from fossil fuel producers, who framed rapid phase-outs as an attack on development and energy security.
A more assertive but divided Global South, with Brazil and Colombia pushing forest protection, while others argued for flexibility on fossil fuels to fuel their development.

These combined geopolitical forces—US absence, opposition from fossil fuel producers, and a divided Global South—meant COP30 ended with just enough agreement for a watered-down deal, but not enough to create real change.

Is the UN Climate Process Trapped in a Blind Alley?

This question hung over Belém and remains unanswered.

The Case for “Yes”

Structural weaknesses: The Paris Agreement depends on voluntary pledges. Countries can promise anything, but may deliver very little.

Consensus paralysis: A few countries can weaken even the strongest proposals. If one country uses its veto, it limits everyone else.

Chronic underfunding: Adaptation. Loss and damage. Clean energy. The needs grow faster than the finances.

The Case for “Not Yet”

The process creates global norms: Without COPs, there would be no shared language, no unified reviews, and no global accountability, even if it is weak.

It amplifies justice claims: Small island states, Indigenous peoples, youth activists—COP is their megaphone.

It births coalitions that act faster than the negotiations themselves: From methane agreements to forest pledges, many breakthroughs happen outside the official process, not within it.

Despite its flaws and frustrations, the COP process is still the only global platform where more than 190 countries negotiate for the planet’s survival.


What COP30 Tells Us About the Future of Climate Multilateralism

COP30 revealed deeper tensions shaping the next decade of climate politics.

The Shift from Emissions to Systems

We are no longer just discussing carbon budgets. Now, the talks include energy security, public health, Indigenous rights, food systems, and investment flows. These issues are complex, political, and connected. They are harder to negotiate, but cannot be ignored.

Fragmentation of Authority

The centre of gravity is moving:G20 for industrial policy
IMF/World Bank for finance
Courts for accountability
Regional blocs like BRICS for geopolitical leverage

COPs remain the symbolic centre, but they are less often the venue for key decisions.

The Trust Crisis

Belém’s progress on forests and health had some effect, but for vulnerable countries, the lack of sufficient adaptation funding and unclear promises to cut emissions have deepened mistrust. Fundamental structural changes, not just gestures, will be needed to restore confidence.

How the UNFCCC Could Escape the Dead End

If COP30 didn’t break the stalemate, it highlighted where reforms must happen.

Strengthen Standings, Reporting, and Accountability

Make progress reports more transparent, more public-facing, and more politically embarrassing for countries that fall behind.

Loosen the Grip of Consensus

Even symbolic majority declarations could create political momentum for a fossil phase-out or for finance obligations.

Centre Finance and Debt

Countries burdened by debt cannot invest in resilience or decarbonisation. Real climate finance reform will need cooperation with the IMF, development banks, and the G20, not just the UNFCCC.

Elevate Forests and Indigenous Rights

Belém showed that these are not “side issues.” They are essential parts of any effective climate response.

Link Climate with Peace and Security

As climate change affects migration and conflict, the climate agenda should be more closely linked to the UN Security Council, even if this is politically difficult.
What Comes After Belém?

COP30’s most significant legacy may be that it did not achieve major progress. The following two years will be crucial for global climate cooperation.Countries must submit new NDCs for 2035 and beyond.
Global financial reforms will determine whether vulnerable countries receive the financial relief they need.
Courts may force governments to act where diplomacy fails.
Elections will shape national mandates—with consequences far beyond borders.

COP30 showed a world that is running out of both time and patience.
Has Climate Diplomacy Hit a Dead End?

Belém did not end global climate diplomacy. However, it made clear that the current system is struggling to deliver the changes that science says are needed.

The COP process is both essential and not enough. It cannot close the emissions gap or stop fossil fuel use on its own. But without it, there would be no global pressure, no shared direction, and no place for vulnerable countries to demand justice.

COP30 seemed less like a dead end and more like a narrowing path. There is still a way forward, but it will take political courage that cannot be created through negotiation alone.

Climate diplomacy will continue, but the planet’s future depends on what countries do outside the conference halls, not just during the meetings.


Ramesh Jaura

Ramesh Jaura is a journalist with 60 years of experience as a freelancer, head of Inter Press Service, and founder-editor of IDN-InDepthNews. His work draws on field reporting and coverage of international conferences and events.