Europe’s Offshore Wind Slowdown Is Squeezing Manufacturers
- Europe built factories for a much bigger offshore wind boom than it is currently getting, with monopile plants projected to be operating at just 19% of capacity in 2028.
- That could weaken Europe’s wind supply chain, as years of low factory use may force manufacturers to cut investment or capacity.
- Chinese suppliers could gain ground as lower costs give them room to compete in Europe even after shipping and carbon costs are added.
Europe’s offshore wind monopile market is moving from concerns over insufficient manufacturing capacity to a period of weak factory utilization coming from offshore wind projects skewing to the right on the timeline. European producers have invested heavily in larger facilities capable of supplying the XXL foundations required for the latest generation of offshore wind turbines, but project delays and slower investment decisions mean that demand is not arriving as quickly as the new capacity.
Rystad Energy estimates that European XXL+ monopile manufacturing capacity will rise from around 1.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 2.7 million tonnes by 2027. Factory utilization is expected to sit at around 32% in 2026 and 2027 before falling to just 19% in 2028. Loading improves later in the decade as more projects enter manufacturing, reaching close to 50% in 2031 under the current project pipeline.
The shift is already affecting contract economics. Manufacturing a representative monopile in Europe is around 38% more expensive than in March 2020, with modeled manufacturing cost rising from $2.50 million to $3.46 million per kilotonne. Selling prices, however, have moved lower from their 2022 peak as suppliers compete for future production slots. For a representative 1.6-kilotonne monopile, Rystad Energy estimates that the modeled European supplier margin has fallen from around $0.93 million in the 2024 reference case to about $0.20 million today, equivalent to roughly 3% of the selling price.
The change is particularly striking compared with the market in 2021 and 2022. When Ocean Winds reserved monopile capacity with China’s Dajin Heavy Industry for Moray West in December 2021, available production slots at established European suppliers were tight. Sif had signed Dogger Bank C only one month earlier and said the three Dogger Bank phases extended its order book well into 2024, while EEW was also carrying a substantial forward workload. Dajin described the market at the time as facing fabrication-capacity bottlenecks.
That environment helped justify a wave of European capacity investment. Sif, for example, subsequently more than doubled its annual capacity to around 500 kilotonnes through its Maasvlakte 2 expansion, adding the ability to manufacture substantially larger foundations. Similar investments across Europe have lifted technically relevant XXL+ capacity well ahead of near-term contracted demand.
Chinese suppliers are now competing under very different conditions. Rather than primarily filling gaps left by constrained European factories, they are bidding into a market where European suppliers themselves need additional orders. Rystad Energy estimates current Chinese monopile manufacturing cost at around $2.03 million per kilotonne, about 41% below the European reference.
That cost gap gives Chinese suppliers more flexibility to absorb freight, carbon costs and lower margins when targeting European projects. In Rystad Energy’s modeled 1.6-kilotonne reference case, a Chinese monopile can land in Europe at around $6.35 million even after including ocean freight and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, depending on the supplier margin and CBAM treatment. The comparable modeled European selling price is around $6.69 million. The analysis illustrates why higher trade and logistics costs can narrow China’s advantage without necessarily eliminating it.
The European market remains dominated by local manufacturers. Sif accounts for around 31% of firm contracted monopile tonnage in Rystad Energy’s current dataset and EEW around 22%, while Dajin represents roughly 12%. But monopiles are also more easily split between suppliers than offshore turbines, allowing developers to introduce additional manufacturers into tenders without awarding them an entire project.
The longer-term risk is that today’s surplus does not remain permanent. Monopile factories carry high fixed costs, and several recent investments were made on the expectation of rapid offshore wind growth and progressively larger foundations. If project delays keep European utilization low for several years, suppliers may defer further investment, mothball production lines or ultimately remove capacity from the market. Germany illustrates the uncertainty: 17.8 GW of offshore wind sites were awarded between 2023 and 2025, while projects representing around 16 GW could potentially fall within an industry-proposed voluntary site-return mechanism.
Germany's Largest Offshore Wind Farm Inaugurated as Commissioning Proceeds

Germany’s largest offshore wind farm, He Dreiht, located in the North Sea, marked its inauguration last week as the project moves toward full commissioning. It comes as Germany continues to debate the form of its future offshore wind efforts and the role of government in the projects.
The project consists of 64 Vestas 15 MW wind turbines and is located just over 50 miles northwest of Borkum and is approximately 68 miles west of Heligoland. When fully commissioned, it will have a capacity to generate up to 960 MW.
“He Dreiht is the largest single investment made by EnBW in renewables,” said Georg Stamatelopoulos, Chairman of the Board of Management at EnBW. “We need more projects like He Dreiht, which deliver affordable, secure and clean electricity. At the same time, we have to gear Germany’s entire energy system toward these three aspects. And this will only be possible if we show courage combined with pragmatism.”
EnBW was awarded the contract back in 2017 for He Dreiht in the first round of auctions for offshore wind farms in Germany, with no entitlement to state funding. It was built without state funding and is being financed solely through long-term power purchase agreements. EnBW holds 50.1 percent of the shares through a project company. The remaining 49.9 percent are held by a consortium made up of Allianz Global Investors on behalf of Allianz entities, AIP Management and Norges Bank Investment Management. Around 2.4 billion euros were invested in developing the project.
The Long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed for electricity production are designed to give companies long-term price stability and planning certainty. One key focus is the technology sector, where the project will help power the growth in digitalization and the growth of AI. Evonik, Google, the Telekom subsidiary PASM, Fraport, Bosch, Salzgitter, SHS Stahl-Holding Saar, Deutsche Bahn and DHL Group are among the contractual partners for He Dreiht.
Construction work on He Dreiht got underway in the middle of the North Sea in May 2024. At a hub height of 142 meters, the rotor with a diameter of 236 meters sweeps through an area of around 44,000 square meters per revolution – a single rotation of the rotor is enough to supply the equivalent of four households with electricity for a day. The network operator TenneT is responsible for connecting the wind farm to the electricity grid. The electricity reaches the coast via a platform in the sea and two submarine cables.
The task of transitioning He Dreiht into regular operation will be a gradual process that involves connecting the individual turbines to the grid one by one, testing them and starting them up. The first turbines are already feeding electricity into the grid, with the others set to follow. Based on current progress, the wind farm should be fully operational in the coming months.
EnBW highlights that the project is part of its overall strategy for expansion of renewable energies. The installed output is currently around eight gigawatts (GW), more than double the 2018 figure. Renewable energies account for over 70 percent of the total installed generation capacity.
At the same time, EnBW is already developing the next major offshore projects with Dreekant (1 GW) in the German North Sea and Morven (2.9 GW) in Scotland. By the end of 2030, around 80 percent of EnBW’s generation portfolio is set to consist of renewables.
Germany has an operational offshore wind capacity of around 10.8 GW as of mid-2026, while the government has declared a long-term target of reaching 70 GW by 2045. The German Federal Cabinet recently adopted an updated amendment to the Offshore Wind Energy Act to recalibrate the build-out framework. The updated regulatory framework introduces two-way CfDs (Contracts for Difference) and extends the standard operating lifespan for new offshore installations from 25 to 35 years, but it has been met with criticism and calls to further revise the policy to support the required investments in renewable energy.




