PAKISTAN

GB’s rare earth potential

Afzal Ali Shigri 

November 19, 2025 

DAWN

IN the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan lies a treasure that could transform Pakistan’s technological and economic future. Beneath its glaciers and granite are traces of rare earth elements. At a time when nations are racing to secure supplies of lithium, cobalt and rare earths, the northern frontier could emerge as a regional hub for high-value mineral processing. With its road link to China, developing internal network, new international airport, hydropower generation potential and a growing pool of educated, enterprising youth, GB is well-positioned for investment.

Processing rare earth elements, however, is capital intensive. Challenges ranging from technology to environmental management can only be overcome via extensive investment, expertise and regulation. But opaque governance hinders the attempt and GB continues to exist under a colonial-style legal order that denies investors protection and local communities their rights — made worse due to the region’s unsettled status.

GB does not enjoy constitutional status in Pak­istan and is governed through executive orders that can be changed through bureaucratic rules of business. The current law, the Gilgit-Baltistan Governance Order 2018, was notified and proclaimed as a step towards empowerment, but in reality, as noted by the Supreme Court, it was designed to roll back the limited powers that were granted through 2009 Order to enhance federal control.

The 2018 Order concentrates decision-making in a single office, the Pakistani prime minister who chairs the Gilgit-Baltistan Council. Article 60 of the Order gives the PM exclusive power to legislate on all major subjects, including specific minerals, industries, electricity and investment policy. He can appoint and remove judges of the superior judiciary. For minerals like rare earths — linked directly to defence and high-technology supply chains — clarity of law and jurisdiction is vital. No serious investor will risk capital in a region where rights are undefined, courts are powerless, and laws can be changed at whim.

The Council has been reduced to an advisory body with no binding authority. Article 118 states that GB’s courts cannot question the validity of the Order. The local judiciary is mostly nominated, which turns it into an arm of the executive. In practice, the PM can override the GB Assembly, issue new regulations, or amend the Order at will, enjoying blanket immunity while doing so. This is hardly self-government; it is a continuation of the colonial model.

For the mining industry, the red flags are obvious: the governing law can be repealed or replaced without warning; contracts have no guarantee by empowered judicial protection; community compensation and environmental standards depend entirely on federal discretion; residents have no enforceable claim to royalties or employment; and no credible global company will invest in an area with such legal flaws.

By clinging to this defective system designed to control, Pakistan is sabotaging its own strategic interest. Instead of inviting investment through transparency and rule of law, an image of centralised control and uncertainty is projected. The Supreme Court saw this coming, and in January 2019, it delivered a landmark judgement directing that the 2018 Order be replaced with the consensus draft Gilgit-Baltistan Governance Reforms Order, 2019, that provides the very framework that both investors and citizens need.

It introduces a full chapter on fundamental rights: equality before law, freedom of speech and movement, property protection, and access to justice. Any law inconsistent with these rights is void. It defines a citizen of GB as someone domiciled or resident there, ensuring that only locals benefit from land and employment rights. Most importantly, it gives the Supreme Court final oversight. No amendment or repeal can take effect until it is placed before the court under Article 184(3) of the Constitution for review. This safeguard creates permanence and predictability for the investors.

The 2019 draft also establishes an independent higher judiciary and strengthens the GB Assembly’s role in social and economic legislation. It is not full provincial status, but it is a meaningful step towards rule-based governance. It grants GB full equality with Pakistani citizens, an independent judiciary with recourse to the Supreme Court and strong local governance.

A legal trap blocks the promise of prosperity that lies in the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan.

Rare earth exploration and processing are capital-intensive ventures with long payback periods. Investors demand stable laws and independent courts. Without these, Pakistan risks losing billions in potential investment to other countries that offer legal security and transparency. At the same time, GB’s people risk repeating the history of extraction without benefit, their environment degraded, and their youth left unemployed. The 2018 Order denies them a share in their own resources. It denies Pakistan, too, the credibility it needs to partner with global technology and energy firms. The Supreme Court’s 2019 framework offers a practical and lawful way out for both investors and the residents of GB.

The court made it clear that adopting this Order does not prejudice the Kashmir dispute; it simply ensures justice and good governance. The only obstacle now is political hesitation and an inherited mindset of control.

GB’s mountains hold the minerals that could propel Pakistan into a high-tech future, yet its governance is reminiscent of a colonial past. The 2018 Order is legally weak, politically outdated, and economically self-defeating. If Pakistan truly wants to unlock its rare earth potential, it must replace this relic with the Supreme Court-approved 2019 Governance Reforms Order. Only then will investors see a predictable legal environment and the people of GB the justice they have long been denied. The world is racing towards clean energy and advanced technology. Pakistan cannot afford to stand aside. The choice is stark: bury the colonial order or bury the region’s promise.

It is time for the country’s major political parties each governing provinces, and some sharing power at the centre to act. The people of GB have waited too long for dignity and inclusion. The 2019 draft is already approved by the Supreme Court; what remains is the will to implement it. Ignoring it would not only betray the region but also squander Pakistan’s strategic and economic future.

The writer, a former IGP Sindh, belongs to Gilgit-Baltistan.

Published in Dawn, November 19th, 2025