PUTIN'S PUPPET SELLS OUT UKRAINE
Ukraine, allies put on a brave face as US weapons supplies stop
Washington has halted the delivery of missiles used in air defence and ammunition to Kyiv on July 1, claiming its own stocks were dwindling causing consternation in Kyiv which is battling to hold off massive Russian drone and missile barrages on a daily basis.
“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in an emailed statement confirming the report. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.”
US Secretary for Defence Pete Hegseth has halted supplies of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine that were promised by the Biden administration.
The extent of the pause is not clear as a White House spokesperson said that the decision does not mark the end of support for Ukraine, but Hegseth ordered those supplies be postponed “a few weeks” while the Pentagon reviews US ammunition stockpiles. Weapons in dumps in Poland intended for Ukraine have also been ordered home.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the day before, deliveries of weapons to Ukraine that were already in Poland were stopped. Among those weapons are dozens of desperately needed Patriot interceptor missiles, as well as thousands of 155-mm high-explosive shells for howitzers, over 100 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles carried by F-16s, more than 250 GMLRS precision missile systems, dozens of Stinger short-range shoulder-fired missiles that keep Russia's fighter jets at bay, AIM air-to-air missiles, and grenade launchers.
While Ukraine has developed sophisticated and deadly drones that have effectively frozen Russia’s ability to make infantry advances on the battlefield, it produces no missiles or air defence ammunition that is essential for protecting Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.
As bne IntelliNews reported, this is the third time that the US has cut Ukraine off from military supplies. Weapons deliveries stopped at the start of last year, after the US ran out of money for Ukraine. US President Donald Trump also ordered a halt immediately after being inaugurated at the start of this year, but his advisers persuaded him to restart deliveries almost immediately. Now Kyiv has been cut off again at a time where it is increasingly clear it is running out of air defence ammo that will leave the skies open to Russian attacks for the rest of the summer.
The decision comes as Russia repeats its tactics of last year when it launched a massive barrage in January to deplete ammo stocks and followed with a second barrage in March that destroyed all of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generating capacity. Since May this year, Ukraine has faced a renewed devastating missile barrage, including a record 537 missiles and drones launched during a single overnight attack on June 30, according to the Ukrainian government.
Last month, Ukrainian air defences destroyed over 4,750 enemy air targets, and Ukrainian Defence Forces' aviation accounted for 646. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence did not receive official notifications from the US about the suspension or revision of the schedule for delivering promised defence aid and has asked for confirmation and a clarification.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said that delays in military aid only encourage Russia to persist with the war and attack rather than seek peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the US decision, saying it will only “bring the end of the special military operation closer.”
Ukraine’s allies brave face
Ukraine’s allies tried to put a brave face on the decision that will put the entire responsibility for supporting Ukraine on Europe’s shoulders. The policy shift was led by Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, Politico reported. Colby has argued that the US is overcommitted abroad and called on Europe to take greater responsibility for their own defence.
“The Pentagon continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end,” Colby said in a statement. “At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving US forces’ readiness for Administration defence priorities.”
The US decision was likely influenced by the 12-day war between Israel, a key US ally, and Iran, and the White House has already admitted that some weapons deliveries intended for Ukraine were diverted to the Middle East conflict. Israel dramatically depleted its arsenals during the two week war with Iran, firing several hundred PAC-3s, possibly up to 1,000, to bring down Iranian inbound missiles, according to reports.
European allies admitted that while they have pledged tens of billions of euros in support and promised to build arms production factories in Ukraine to make it self reliant, for the meantime they remain reliant on US weapons supplies.
Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte, fresh from a Nato summit in the Hague, which saw large increases in defence spending commitments, said that Kyiv will need continued military support from Washington for the meantime.
"When it comes to Ukraine in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get. Last week, President Trump and President Zelenskyy discussed this, focusing specifically on air defence," said Rutte. He added that support for Ukraine from European partners is increasing and "already reaches $45bn," but this support is not immediate, and the allies “cannot operate effectively” without "practical support from the US."
"It is in the interests of the US not to lose the war in Ukraine. Having Russia on the borders with Europe is a danger. The security of Europe is the security of the US; everything is completely interconnected," he added.
Although it is still unclear how much of the weaponry has been blocked from shipment and when exactly this will affect the front lines, the message is clear: Washington is moving away from the war. "Ukraine is no longer a priority, it is no longer at the centre of US foreign policy," said Rutte.
Key weapons halted
Details of what has been affected are still emerging, but White House confirmed that it has stopped plans to deliver several key weapons systems that were committed by the departing Biden administration at the end of last year. These include: the latest PAC3 Patriots missiles, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles.
The Kremlin will be pleased with the decision which is distracting from the Ukraine war just as the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) launches a major summer offensive and is taking more land. As bne IntelliNews reported, the AFR now has full control of the Luhansk region for the first time – the only one of the four regions it annexed last year that the Kremlin fully controls. Assaults have also been launched on the eastern Ukrainian region of Sumy, with 50,000 Russian troops massed on the border, and Odesa, which may become the next military target.
In the last two months, Russian troops have made the most territorial gains in the last year and a half. In June Russian forces took more Ukrainian territory than in any month since November 2023, advancing in the eastern regions as well as carrying out the largest air strike since the full-scale invasion began. At the last Istanbul meeting on June 3, the head of the delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, warned that Russia could take more regions – as many as eight, he threatened.
Made in Ukraine
With European stockpiles running equally low, the strategy has been slowly switching from tapping Western stockpiles, to building factories in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reports that Ukraine now produces between 40% and 50% of all the weapons it needs, but the progress has been largely in the simpler weapons raising the question: can Ukraine go it alone? For now, Kyiv remains entirely dependent on the West for the sophisticated and long-range offensive and defensive items like Patriot, HIMARS and ATACMS missile systems.
Ukraine has developed the R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile that was used to sink Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva in April 2022 that has been since adapted to land use. Zelenskiy announced in September last year that it has developed and tested its own cruise missile, Palyanytsia. It was first deployed in August, and it has a range of approximately 600-700 km, but it not in mass production and has played little role in the war so far.
Russia remains far ahead of Ukraine in the development of cruise and ballistic missiles. The newest addition is the Oreshnik ICBM missile that has a range of 5,000km and was fired for the first time in November after the US authorised Ukraine to use Nato-made long-range weapons on targets inside Russia proper. The Oreshnik test was widely taken as a warning to Europe as the missile puts most European capitals into Russia’s range.
Ukraine’s allies are rushing out projects to beef up Ukraine’s defence sector under the so-called Danish model, but admit that most of the projects will take at least a year to come online. Currently there are at least eight foreign defence manufacturers which have either opened or are preparing to launch arms production facilities in Ukraine. The facilities include the production of armoured vehicles, artillery systems, ammunition, drones and small arms. Germany, the Czech Republic, Canada, Turkey and Latvia already have active operations, while the United States and the United Kingdom are in advanced planning stages.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 2 that Berlin will fund the production of over 500 long-range weapons in Ukraine and representatives of the German government have already signed the first contract to finance boosting Ukrainian production of these weapons. The project includes the production of over 500 Antonov-196 kamikaze drones (AN-196), which have a flight range of 1,200 kilometres and carry explosive charges weighing around 50 kilograms, which will be ready in the coming months. However, deadly as these drones are, they are useless in countering Russia’s missile threat.
Germany leads the way in investing into Ukraine’s defence sector, but most of the plans remain just that – plans. Weapons manufacturers – including MBDA, Quantum Systems, Diehl, FFG, Helsing – have travelled to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy and expressed interest in investing. This includes developing projects in the areas of air defence, artillery, reconnaissance, and strike UAVs, but all these proposals remain on the drawing board for now.
Kyiv Blog
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been calling for Western arms from day one of the war, and has never received enough soon enough.
A few days after Russia’s forces marched over his border, Zelenskiy went on TV with a desperate plea for the West to close the skies. As missiles began to rain down on Ukraine’s cities he became increasingly desperate and berated Nato for failing to act.
“The Nato allies have created a narrative that closing the skies would provoke Russia’s direct aggression against Nato. This is self-hypnosis,” Zelenskiy said. “All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you. Because of your weakness.”
It was a brutally blunt message. Zelenskiy rapidly toned down his rhetoric as the first weapons were made available to prevent Ukraine’s rapid and total defeat – starting with Javelin missiles that devastated Russia’s invading tanks. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)’s spectacular successes with such limited resources – teams of three soldiers armed with Javelins were blowing up tank after tank, and led the White House to reassess Ukraine’s chances of survival.
But since then, Zelenskiy has been pleading with the West for more, and more powerful, weapons. As bne IntelliNews reported, Zelenskiy assessment of Nato’s deep-seated fear of provoking a direct clash with Russia was spot on and resulted in a policy of “some, but not enough” weapons supplies, so that Ukraine could not lose, but could not win either.
First from a lecture, then in his nightly video blogs, Zelenskiy has tirelessly lobbied since spring of 2022 for more, and more powerful, aid: shells, tanks, guns, missiles and planes. However, the half-hearted support by the West was painfully obvious and put on display by the sagas surrounding the supply of the powerful German-made Leopard II tanks and then F-16 fighter jets: the first Leopards didn’t arrive for a year and the first F-16s for another year and a half, in July 2024, and even then they came in such small numbers they had no impact whatsoever on the battlefield. The delivery of both was little more than a political gesture, designed to assuage Western guilt for promising to “stand with Ukraine as long as it takes” but withhold the materiel Ukraine actually needed to defeat Russia.
With the advent of US President Donald Trump things have only got worse. Trump immediately cut off Ukraine again after taking office in January, but was persuaded by pro-Ukraine supporters in his entourage to at least allow the commitments that former US President Joe Biden had made before retiring. However, since then the US has made no new allocations of arms or money and the job of supporting Ukraine has entirely fallen to the cut down EU effort, spearheaded by the Coalition of the Willing. But the EU has neither the money, nor the weapons stockpiles, to supply Ukraine. Indeed, there are many capacities like satellite recognisance, essential for real time battlefield reports, that it lacks entirely, being as dependent on the US as Ukraine is.
Zelenskiy’s bad temper was on show for a second time at the notorious meeting in the White House with Trump in February, which descended into a shouting match between two presidents on February 28. Relations have since improved somewhat, especially following a tête-à-tête at the funeral of the late Pope Francis in Rome in April. But Trump has still not sent any new weapons and it was reported on July 1 that this decision is now final, although the White House has yet to confirm it and Bankova is seeking clarification at the time of writing.
If Trump walks out on Ukraine completely the rest of Nato will have to carry the can. While the alliance’s leaders have promised to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP (actually only 3.5%, as another 1.5% will be spent on “infrastructure”), they have only pledged to do this by 2035 and it is widely anticipated that, like the Welsh Nato summit in 2006 pledge to spending 2% of GDP on defence, most countries will ignore the promise; even today, a third of Nato members have not met the 2% target. Moreover, Putin will be 83 in 2035, in his 35th year in office, and Ukraine will long since have lost the war by then.
In its latest staff report, the IMF warned this week that Ukraine is already “running out of space” to cope with more economic shocks and its base case scenario that the war will end this year is about to be revised to assuming this will be a long war. Ukraine has enough money and drones to get through this year, but even the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) expects international aid to halve next year, putting Kyiv’s ability to fund its war in doubt.
Darkening mood
The mood is now darkening rapidly. As bne IntelliNews wrote in a substack post, the end of arms deliveries to Ukraine could be the beginning of the end for Ukraine’s heroic resistance. The US also cut supplies off at the start of last year when it ran out of money for Ukraine in January 2024, only to bail it out with a $61bn aid package on April 20. But during those months Russia used the open skies to destroy all of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generation capacity.
What will happen this time? Clearly the Kremlin is employing the same tactics. It launched a devastating missile barrage on Ukrainian towns and villages in May, again to deplete Kyiv’s stock of precious air defence ammo, and those supplies have clearly run so low that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has been forced to deploy its precious F-16s, of which it has only received 24 from European allies, to try to shoot down the incoming missiles. It has lost a second F-16 in the process.
If the first year of war quickly became an artillery duel, by the start of the second it became a drone war. As part of Ukraine’s stunning technological drone revolution that will completely reshape the way modern wars are fought, the AFU has developed new “interceptor” drones that are designed to bring down Russian “fly by wire” drones that have been impossible to counter with electronic warfare (EW) counter measures, but these drones are ineffective against the bigger Iran-designed Shahed drones and completely useless against ballistic missiles.
Kyiv has been trying to reduce its dependency on Western-made weapons and launched an initiative to turn Ukraine into a military production hub in October 2023. It has made great progress since then thanks to the Danish model of cooperating with Western arms-makers. Ukraine now reportedly meets between 40%-50% of its own military supply needs. Drone production has soared by some 500% in the last year alone. Ukraine produced some 1.5mn drones in 2024 and plans to produce 2.5mn this year – more than Russia is making, despite its enormous manufacturing power – and greater than that of all of Europe.
The drones have kept Ukraine in the war. They have made it impossible for the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) to follow through on their missile bombardment advantage, as any Russian infantry that steps into no-man’s land is hunted down and killed by Ukraine’s First Person View (FPV) drones. The drones are the modern equivalent of WWI’s lethal combination of trenches and the MG 08 machine gun, making it impossible to advance. This conflict has currently become a stalemate.
But now Russia is answering by ramping up its missile production, where it has a huge head start. Russia had already developed new hypersonic missiles, which Putin showcased during his 2018 State of the Nation speech and which he claims can penetrate any missile defence system. But Moscow has taken a leaf out of Bankova’s playbook and also developed the low tech glide bombs, recycled WWII gravity bombs with wings strapped to them to increase their range and make them aimable. Last week, the latest iteration of these jury-rigged missiles was used for the first time, the Grom-E1 missile-bomb, that also had a rocket added to the wings to increase its range and speed, making it even harder to shoot down. Russia’s glide bombs are cheap and plentiful and can carry up to 3,000kg of explosive, whereas the typical drone can’t carry more than 50kg.
Poignantly, Russian forces have reportedly taken full control of the Luhansk region on July 1. If confirmed, it would be the first time that Russia fully controls one of the four regions that it annexed in 2023, reported Reuters, citing Russian media. It will be a milestone in the war like the fall of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, which were both seminal victories for Russia, albeit bought with a great cost in blood.
In retrospect Zelenskiy should have taken the Istanbul peace deal struck in April 2022 that would have ended the war after a month. Ironically, that was Zelenskiy's instinct, as he confessed to a journalist in an interview at the site of the Bucha massacre. He is not going to get better terms now, irrespective of what support Europe can offer, and over a million lives would have been saved – not to mention Ukraine’s future as a functioning country.
The mood in the Kremlin has changed too. Putin is no longer interested in a deal. He is going to see the “special military operation” through to its bloody end.
When the ceasefire talks kicked off in Riyadh on February 18 the Russian side was polite and appeared to be genuinely looking whether a deal could be done, seeking for major concessions, but also making it clear they were willing to make some compromises. However, by the showdown in London in April, where Trump made his seven-point “final offer” peace plan, only to have it rejected by Zelenskiy and his counteroffer, the whole process is now dead in the water. Neither side has talked to the other for over a month. Tellingly, at the last round of talks in Istanbul on June 3 the Russian side got aggressive again and the head of the delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide and former culture minister, threatened the AFR would take more regions – up to eight more.
Despite robust international support, Ukraine “running out of space” to cope with additional economic stress – IMF
The International Monetary Fund has warned that Ukraine’s ability to absorb further economic shocks is rapidly diminishing as the war with Russia enters its fourth year and reform momentum in Parliament slows. In its latest staff report released on June 20, the IMF said the country’s macroeconomic stability had been preserved through “skillful policymaking and substantial external support”, but risks remain “exceptionally high”.
“The current four-year programme has limited time to absorb further shocks – including from a more prolonged and intense war – while still being able to implement the policies needed to achieve medium-term external viability,” the IMF said.
The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the war in Ukraine will end by the end of 2025 and if peace is reached Ukraine's economic growth will rise to 4.5% in 2026. However, Ukraine needs guarantees and resources for economic growth.
Under this base case assumption, the Fund intends to cut Ukraine’s debt to GDP from 100% to 65% by 2033. “But in the downside scenario of the war extending to 2026, at least, the target ratio stays above 100% with the Fund suggesting that there would then need to be a second debt treatment in 2026-27. That now seems more like the base case,” said Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London in a note.
The Fund has maintained its 2025 growth forecast for Ukraine at 2-3%, citing improved electricity availability but noting headwinds from lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports. Inflation is expected to decline to 9% by the end of the year. Yet the IMF warned that fiscal and debt sustainability depends on “continued decisive efforts to implement the National Revenue Strategy”, including tax and customs reforms, and enhanced revenue collection.
"A peaceful settlement without reliable security guarantees and/or sufficient financial resources for reconstruction and defence could lead to adverse economic and social consequences," the IMF warns.
More uncertainty will hinder the return of refugees, the pace of reconstruction, and the resumption of badly needed foreign direct investment, the IMF warned.
The negative scenario still assumes an end to the war in the second quarter of 2026, which has become more likely as ceasefire talks are currently dead in the water and Russia is, if anything, ramping up its summer offensive with renewed missile and drone barrages.
The updated IMF forecast indicates that the primary negative impact would occur in the third quarter of 2025, leading to a 1% decline in real GDP in 2025 and zero growth in 2026. Ukraine's financing needs are expected to increase by $12.4bn as a result.
“If we are also in the downside scenario the Fund will need to come up with additional financing assurances to fill likely financing gaps caused by the extended war but also by doubts around US support. There is also a looming risk to the $50bn Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) facility that underpins the EFF and is funded from the interest flow on immobilised CBR assets,” says Ash. Currently the ERA is paying out around $1bn a month to Ukraine.
A key date is coming up at the end of July, when EU sanctions on freezing the $300bn of Central Bank of Russia (CBR) assets needs to be renewed, and currently it says it will block the renewal – unanimity is needed within the EU for this decision.
“Russia could get the underlying assets back, which would leave either a huge financing gap for Ukraine or G7 countries on the hook to fill the void, as there would be no assets from which to secure an interest stream,” says Ash.
EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has said that she has a Plan B to work around the Hungarian veto, which may involve trying to strip Budapest of its voting rights. However, if this fails and the $300bn of CBR frozen assets is returned to Russia then that leaves the EU obliged to make the payments on the G7 $50bn loan to Ukraine, approved on June 13 at a G7 summit in Italy, that makes up the ERA mechanism.
$500mn tranche
The IMF Executive Board approved an additional tranche to Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on July 1. As a result, Ukraine has already received the ninth tranche of approximately $500mn under the programme. In total, payments under the programme amount to $10.6bn out of the planned $15.5bn for 2023-2027.
"The IMF noted the progress of the Ukrainian side in fulfilling the conditions of the EFF programme as of the end of March 2025. The Ukrainian economy remains resilient, and the programme implementation indicators stay high, despite the full-scale war," the Ministry of Finance stated.
The new tranche will be used to cover priority budget needs. It is worth noting that, at the request of the Ukrainian authorities, the ninth and tenth reviews of the EFF program, originally scheduled for the end of August and early December this year, have been combined into one ninth review, set to take place in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The IMF clarified that Kyiv explained this by the desire to align the IMF's financing with Ukraine's expected balance of payments needs and to allow more time to advance reforms. As a result, the combined 10th tranche from the IMF program will now total $1.6bn.
IMF programme on track
“As I have long argued, the way the IMF accounts for Ukraine’s financing needs is very blinkered. They just look at budget and BOP financing needs, not the total cheque in terms of Western financial support needed to keep Ukraine in the war,” says Ash. “I would concur with the IMF in that the budget and BOP financing needs amount to around $40bn a year. Indeed, the Fund uses the figure of $153bn for the duration of the four-year programme, so $38.25bn per year. It rises to $165bn under an extended war scenario. But this is only a partial view of what Ukraine needs to keep it in the war – in terms of Western military, budget and balance of payments support.”
The Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker estimates that from January 2022 to the end of April 2025 the total support from Europe, the US, Japan, Canada et al has come in at €287.5bn ($339.25bn), plus around another $20bn in multilateral financing to a total of around $360bn.
“Give or take, that is around $100bn a year for the West to keep Ukraine in the war, and not the $40bn mentioned by the IMF. Actually as I have argued, to ensure a Ukrainian victory we actually need to increase funding of Ukraine to $150bn a year, or just over $12bn per month,” says Ash.
In the meantime, Ukraine met all end-March quantitative performance criteria under the Extended Fund Facility, including targets for fiscal performance, tax revenues and international reserves. However, the Fund noted slippages in structural and governance reforms, particularly where legislative action was required. “Fiscal structural and governance reforms have been subject to delay, especially where requiring legislative action,” IMF staff stated.
A supplementary budget has been introduced for 2025 to accommodate higher defence spending, raising the overall fiscal deficit projection to 22.1% of GDP. “Any further shocks will require fully counterbalancing measures,” the Fund said, adding that even under the revised plan, deposit buffers have been eroded. External debt has been rising steadily and is expected to top 100% of GDP this year.
On the monetary side, the IMF endorsed the National Bank of Ukraine’s tight policy stance. Annual inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 15.9% in May, marking its highest level this year as food prices surged, data from the State Statistics Service showed on June 9. Interest rates on bank loans in Ukraine could return to 2024 levels of 17-18% per annum in the second half of this year, provided that macroeconomic conditions remain favourable, say experts.
“Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate, and the NBU should stand ready to tighten further should inflation expectations deteriorate,” the report said.
The IMF also highlighted continued risks to financial sector stability, urging authorities to complete the updated bank resilience assessments and address governance weaknesses in the securities regulator. Ukrainian banks have posted a cumulative profit of nearly UAH255bn ($6.1bn) since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the NBU, and remain profitable for now, but more work on the sector is needed.
“Operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need to be tackled urgently,” the Fund said.
In the longer term, the IMF called for structural reforms to support reconstruction and EU accession. “Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial,” it said, citing the need for criminal code amendments and further institutional strengthening.
The IMF concluded that, despite robust international support, Ukraine’s programme is “running out of space” to handle additional economic stress.
Russian intelligence instructed Ukrainian restaurant arson, Estonian court says
A court says Russia’s intelligence service hired the Moldovan national and sent him to Estonia to carry out the attack.
Arson attacks on a restaurant and supermarket in Estonia last year were ordered by Russian intelligence, an Estonian court said on Wednesday.
The attack was one in a series across Europe, tracked and linked to Russia by Western officials. The goal, they asserted, is to sow division in Western societies and undermine support for Ukraine as it continues to fend off Russia’s more than three-year-long all-out war against its neighbour.
The Harju County Court in Estonia stated that the perpetrators were two related Moldovan men, both named Ivan Chihaial.
One was sentenced to six and a half years in prison for the arson attack on the restaurant and supermarket, which the court said was carried out on behalf of Russia's security services. The other Ivan Chihaial was an accomplice and sentenced to two and a half years.
In a statement, the court said the first Chihaial was tasked with the operation by Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU.
The court says he carried out a trial operation on behalf of the GRU in January 2024, setting fire to a co-op supermarket in the village of Osula in southeastern Estonia.
The next day an individual acting on behalf of the GRU tasked him with setting fire to the Slava Ukraini restaurant in the capital Tallinn.
Chihaial drove with his cousin to the restaurant on the night of 31 January, 2024, where they then proceeded to set fire to the establishment before departing Estonia. The court said Chihaial’s cousin was unaware he was working for the Kremlin.
Authorities in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland worked to detain the two men who were apprehended in Italy before being sent back to Estonia to face trial, said State Prosecutor Triinu Olev-Aas.
The arson is the latest in a string of Russian attacks on Estonia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In prior cases, Estonia suffered cyberattacks and vandalism to the windows of cars belonging to vocal anti-Kremlin politicians and journalists.
Previous attackers have been recruited inside Russia, which shares a border with Estonia. The Estonian Internal Security Service said the fact that the GRU used Moldovans who were sent to the country showed they are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit.
Russia has been accused of a widespread sabotage campaign by Western officials since its invasion of Ukraine. The attacks across Europe range from stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany to a plot to plant explosives on cargo planes, to hackings that targeted politicians and critical infrastructure and spying by a ring convicted in the UK.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has denied such allegations, adding that the Kremlin has yet to be presented “any proof” supporting accusations of a broader sabotage campaign.
