Constructing Crisis

Bert Spector
Cambridge University Press, Sep. 5, 2019 - Business & Economics - 316 pages

https://tinyurl.com/y956cah5

There is no such thing as a crisis. Rather than an actual, corporeal thing, a crisis is a claim asserted from a position of power and influence, intended to shape the understanding of others. A constructed crisis by a leader may or may not be legitimate, and, legitimate or not, the content of a claim alone does not determine whether people decide to believe it. Rather than viewing crises as the result of objective events, Spector demonstrates that leaders impose crises on organizations to strategically assert power and exert control. Interpreting crisis through a critical lens, this interdisciplinary book encompasses not just management and organizational literature, but also sociology, history, cognitive science, and psychology. The resulting wide-ranging, critical, and provocative analysis will appeal in particular to students and academics researching leadership and crisis management.

Contents

Undertaking a New Interpretive Effort	1
10	16
Crisis as a Reification of Urgency	18
Advancing the Crisis as Event Model	37
Problems Crises and Contextual Constructionism	58
An Objective Description and a Subjective UhOh	81
Believing Claims of Urgency Or Not	106
The Power of a Good Crisis Narrative	140

To Create Such a Crisis to Foster Such a Tension	165
Beyond ForgedinCrisis Leadership	191
So What?	221
References	253
Index	292
111	294
Copyright

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BILL BARR LIED

Aggressive Tactics by National Guard, Ordered to Appease Trump, Wounded the Military, Too

Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper,
 The New York Times•June 11, 2020

A protester LEFT stands across from members of the National Guard near the White House in Washington, June 3, 2020. (Erin Schaff/The New York Times)

WASHINGTON — A white National Guard commander called the standoff in Lafayette Square “the Alamo,” implying that the White House was under siege. Black members of the D.C. Guard objected to turning on their neighbors. Army leaders told pilots to “flood the box with everything we have” as two helicopters buzzed protesters in the streets.

The National Guard is now engaged in an investigation of the havoc a week ago Monday in downtown Washington, similar to after-the-fact examinations more common to battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan. There will be questions, interviews and competing narratives.

But on one point everyone is agreed: The first days of June, a calamitous period for the Trump presidency, have been a debacle for the National Guard.

There has been a torrent of criticism from Congress, senior retired military officers and Guard members themselves since more than 5,000 Guard troops — from the District of Columbia and a dozen states — were rushed to the streets of the capital to help in the crackdown on mostly peaceful protesters and occasional looters after the killing of George Floyd in police custody. The D.C. Guard has halted recruiting efforts, and at least four National Guard troops have tested positive for the coronavirus.

D.C. Guard members, typically deployed to help after hurricanes, floods and other natural disasters, say they feel demoralized and exhausted. More than 60% are people of color, and one soldier said he and some fellow troops were so ashamed in taking part against the protests that they have kept it from family members.

“Typically, as the D.C. National Guard, we are viewed as the heroes,” said another soldier, 1st Lt. Malik Jenkins-Bey, 42, who was the acting commander of the 273rd Military Police Company during the first days of the protests. But last week was different, he said.

“It’s a very tough conversation to have when a soldier turns to me and they’re saying, ‘Hey sir, you know my cousin was up there yelling at me, that was my neighbor, my best friend from high school,’ ” said Jenkins-Bey, who is African American.

Interviews with two dozen military officials as well as texts, internet chats, audio recordings, emails and documents obtained by The New York Times also show that:

— Senior Army leaders — in an effort to prevent what they feared would be a calamitous outcome if President Donald Trump ordered combat troops from the 82nd Airborne Division, holding just outside city limits, to the streets — leaned heavily on the Guard to carry out aggressive tactics to prove it could do the job without active-duty forces.

— Guard leaders issued a flurry of ad hoc orders that put thousands of Guard soldiers in face-to-face conflict with fellow Americans.

— Some of the Guard soldiers were just out of basic training, and others had no experience in controlling disturbances in the streets. Guard soldiers were allowed to drive heavy vehicles on the streets without the usual licensing.

In the next days, the Army is expected to release the results of a preliminary investigation into why the helicopters — a Black Hawk and, in particular, a Lakota with the Red Cross emblem designating it a medical helicopter — came to be used to terrorize protesters in Washington.

Ryan McCarthy, the Army secretary, acknowledged that he gave the order for the helicopters to respond, but by the time that order reached the pilots, officials said, it was interpreted as high profile and urgent to disrupt the protests. Officials expect the pilots who flew the helicopters will receive some type of punishment.

And when National Guard officials requested written guidance allowing troops without military licenses to drive armored vehicles around Washington, the officer in charge of the task force, Brig Gen. Robert K. Ryan, said it was a verbal order from the Army’s chief of staff, Gen. James C. McConville. Written confirmation never came, and a Defense Department official with direct knowledge of the situation said McConville never gave such an order.

The D.C. National Guard did not respond to a request for comment.

Around 9:15 a.m. Monday, June 1, more than an hour into Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper’s weekly videoconference staff meeting with officials at the Pentagon, an aide slipped a note to the secretary. “I’ve got to go,” Esper said, ending the call and summoning top aides for a smaller meeting on security in the capital and in Minnesota.

The night before, some demonstrators had hurled projectiles at the police and other law enforcement authorities. The night before that, six National Guard troops had been injured — five hit in the legs with bricks and one hit in the head. Thinly sourced intelligence reports, with no direct corroboration and highlighted in a brief early last week, suggested that fringe groups might try to use car bombs to attack government and law enforcement positions.

Trump himself was enraged by news reports that he had been moved on Friday night, May 29, to a White House bunker because of the protests outside his gates. The president was alarmed and unsettled by the violence, and by Monday, he was threatening to invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act, which would allow him to order active-duty troops into cities across the United States. Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, objected, saying it was a terrible idea to have combat troops trained to fight foreign adversaries at war with Americans.

A wild scramble ensued to use another option: Summon National Guard troops from other states to reinforce the 1,200 D.C. Guard troops already called up. Unlike other Guard units, the D.C. Guard reports not to a state governor but to the Army secretary, who in turn reports to the defense secretary and the president.

From the Pentagon and a National Guard operations center on Monday in nearby Northern Virginia, officials held a hastily arranged conference call with all of the commanders of state National Guard forces.

The appeal was blunt and urgent: How many troops can you send and when can you send them? Pentagon officials said they preferred troops with previous training in civil disturbances, but they knew they did not have time to be picky.

Some states with Republican governors quickly jumped in — Tennessee, South Carolina, Utah. West Virginia’s National Guard sent a reconnaissance plane, typically used for border security and to spot drug smugglers.

Along with the troops, National Guard units from other states brought weapons and ammunition. Tens of thousands of rifle and pistol rounds were stored in the D.C. Armory and partitioned in pallets, labeled by their state of origin, to be used on U.S. citizens in case of emergency.

Other states, like California, were dealing with demonstrations of their own and were reluctant to part with any forces. Some Guard commanders, recalling the lessons of the Vietnam War and the Guard shootings that killed four Kent State students in 1970, were deeply concerned about committing their troops to a vaguely defined urban mission that could put their forces in direct contact with U.S. citizens protesting racial injustice.

But Milley and McCarthy warned the Guard throughout the day that if it could not control the protests, Trump would most likely call in the 82nd Airborne. The pressure was particularly intense on the D.C. Guard, which had the only sizable military force on the streets.

Both McCarthy and McConville pressed Maj. Gen. William J. Walker, the commanding general of the D.C. National Guard, to increase his forces’ presence in the city, according to a senior Defense Department official.

By 5 p.m. June 1, Jenkins-Bey’s D.C. Guard troops had positioned themselves in a line behind the D.C. police just outside Lafayette Square. The lieutenant had often reminded them that “this isn’t a deployment against the enemy.”

A few hours earlier, Esper had told the nation’s governors in a conference from the White House call with Trump that troops controlling the protesters needed to dominate the “battle space.” Jenkins-Bey made clear to his troops in the following days where he stood: “We’re not here to dominate any battle spaces or anything like that, our job is simply to stand the line between the police and the citizens so that they can say what they need to say.”

McCarthy, who served in the Army’s elite 75th Ranger Regiment during the war in Afghanistan, pored over maps and strategized with Guard and federal officials at a command post set up at the FBI’s Washington field office in the city’s Chinatown district.

This micromanagement was a last-ditch attempt to keep active-duty troops outside the city.

Military officials scrambled to arrange transport planes to pick Guard soldiers up and fly them to Washington. Most would not start arriving until Tuesday morning, but officials expressed confidence they had enough on hand and en route for Esper and Milley to tell the president that help was on the way.

But the 82nd Airborne units, based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, along with a military police unit from Fort Drum, New York, were still on their way to Washington.

The question was, where should the Pentagon put the incoming combat troops? Attorney General William Barr quickly scuttled one proposal to place them at the Marine Barracks just a mile from the Capitol, saying he did not want the troops in the city. Officials agreed on an alternative plan to deploy them to Fort Belvoir, in suburban Virginia.

Thirty minutes before 7 p.m., when Washington’s curfew was to go into effect, U.S. Park Police rushed into a crowd of protesters at Lafayette Square. Jenkins-Bey, in line with his troops behind the police officers, said he was taken by surprise as the assault with rubber bullets began.

After the assault, Milley, clad in fatigues, walked across the park behind Trump and his entourage for a photo opportunity at a nearby church. And, after that, low-flying helicopters sent protesters scattering.

“The reason you didn’t see Guardsmen commanded by governors use heavy handed tactics in states is because it devalues them, and increases tension at a delicate moment,” said Jon Soltz, an Iraq war veteran who is the chairman of VoteVets.

By Sunday, Trump — under widespread criticism — ordered the Guard from other states to return home.

On Tuesday, during a conference call updating commanders on the situation in Washington, Ryan, the task force commander, likened the defense of Lafayette Square to the “Alamo” and his troops’ response to the huge protests on Saturday to the “Super Bowl.”

That military response has already had aftershocks for those in the D.C. Guard. In one mass text sent Sunday, Guard leadership told troops “to be wary of ordering food from outside sources as well as any conversations held while in public places.”

“Please be vigilant that some of the DC public does not agree with our mission and may have nefarious intention toward our service members,” the text said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

© 2020 The New York Times Company

REDMONTON
‘One protest just isn't going to cut it’: hundreds march against police brutality in Edmonton
 
© Ian Kucerak Demonstrators speak out against police brutality against Black people in Canada and worldwide during the Silence the Sirens march in Edmonton, on Friday, June 12, 2020. Photo by Ian Kucerak/Postmedia

After the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody, and following last week’s Fight for Equity demonstration in Edmonton, co-organizers Sarah Ross, 26, and Betty Abebayehu, 23, said they felt frustrated and compelled to take action.

“We just know that there’s a lot more work that needs to be done. One protest just isn’t going to cut it,” said Ross before the march, dubbed Silence the Sirens, began. The goal is to educate people and unify the black community and its allies with a positive, peaceful protest, they said.

It’s about getting policing officials to recognize the trauma experienced by black people, Indigenous people and racialized communities, Abebayehu said.

And, Edmontonians should expect to see continuous protest and other forms of political action for change, including the lobbying of city council, they said.

Police need to acknowledge there is a racism problem so that they can work towards addressing it, said Ross.

“We’re going to need them to open their eyes,” she said.

On Monday, Deputy RCMP Commissioner Curtis Zablocki was speaking at a news conference after Alberta’s police watchdog announced charges against two officers involved in a deadly 2018 shooting in Whitecourt. He said he didn’t “believe that racism is systemic through Canadian policing, I don’t believe it’s systemic through policing in Alberta.”

Earlier Friday afternoon, Zablocki walked back the comments . Also Friday, a group representing over 200 Alberta defence lawyers called for his resignation.  
© Ian Kucerak Demonstrators speak out against police brutality against Black people in Canada and worldwide during the Silence the Sirens march in Edmonton, on Friday, June 12, 2020. Photo by Ian Kucerak/Postmedia

Attendees at the march Friday evening chanted “black lives matter” and “no justice, no peace” as they made their way from 109 St. and Jasper Ave., across the the High Level Bridge. The route took the march back north across the river to end at Churchill Square.

Abebayehu encouraged those who have the privilege to stand up for those who are vulnerable without facing any physical or political consequences to do so. That includes educating family members and co-workers and pressuring public officials for change.

Organizers acknowledged public health restrictions and safety concerns due to COVID-19, and encouraged attendees to wear masks.

“If the people of Minneapolis failed to stand up, worried about COVID-19,” Abebayehu began, “there would be no justice,” Ross said.
 
© Ian Kucerak Demonstrators speak out against police brutality against Black people in Canada and worldwide while crossing the High Level Bridge during the Silence the Sirens march in Edmonton, on Friday, June 12, 2020. Photo by Ian Kucerak/Postmedia
lijohnson@postmedia.com

AUSTRALIA 

Police Treatment Of Aboriginal Teen ‘Disturbing’, Writes Mitch Tambo
"I have heard many heart-wrenching stories of young people threatened or inappropriately treated by police. Only last week it happened to someone in my own family."

By Mitch Tambo, opinion Guest Writer

MITCH TAMBO

"Lack of compassion from those in authority such as police officers is an ongoing issue."

The recent incident of a 17-year-old Aboriginal teenager’s legs being kicked from under him by a police officer left me upset. I could not believe that days after George Floyd was killed at the hands of police, an Australian young person would face this kind of treatment, which was also captured on camera.

I’m not condoning the inappropriate language the teenager used. But at the same time, when we look at what’s currently happening in the world, the unnecessary brutal handling of this young person by police just reinforces the dominant discourse that minorities and people of colour are constantly at the mercy of the authorities.

It was really disturbing and disheartening to see a video of a police officer kick the legs out from under the teen, who I am sure was grappling with a lot of different emotions. This is a time when the whole world is protesting against injustices, meanwhile there is still the over incarceration of Aboriginal people, deaths in custody and constant mistreatment in our own country.

Indigenous Australians are the most incarcerated people in the world.

Despite making up about 2% of Australia’s population, they account for 28% of the adult prison population.

FACEBOOK The incident in Surry Hills was caught on camera.
I’ve seen comments online that the teen was in the wrong so who cares. Yes, he was mouthy and was acting out, but if that was your teenager getting slammed into cement, I feel any of us would think differently. You could hear him squealing in absolute agony. Thankfully, he was not more seriously injured when you see the sheer force used.While I completely appreciate the complex situations our law enforcement officers find themselves in on a daily basis, on this occasion, I feel the officer went too far. This is a person who is trained with the skills to appropriately and safely restrain a young person who is a risk to themselves or others. If this officer isn’t able to diffuse the situation calmly and restrain the young person in an appropriate and safe manner, then he should not be employed as a police officer.

The fact is, trans-generational trauma is very real and has been passed on from Aboriginal generation to generation. Our people have a very long history when it comes to police incarceration and the court system. Many of us are still carrying that trauma, still affected by what they’ve experienced or what others in their families or communities have told them.

Aboriginal people are regularly subjected to racial hatred and victimisation as Australian society has been conditioned to look down on First Nations since the invasion of the Western settlers. Every time they hear statistics, read about someone like George Floyd, or see hateful comments on social media this perception is reinforced.

I have worked in numerous settings with at-risk Aboriginal youth, where I have heard many heart-wrenching stories of young people threatened or inappropriately treated by police. Only last week it happened to someone in my own family.

My teenage nephew was followed down the street by a police car for no reason after he’d just finished shopping at a supermarket. He got scared so hid in an alleyway until police lost sight of him. He asked me whether it was because he might have looked “gangster”.

I replied, “No, you just look like any other youth in a Nike sweatshirt.” I suggested that he might have looked similar to someone they had their sights on. His sad response was, “Yeah, just like every other Black kid, eh?.” These kids are already aware of what others think of them – they don’t need to constantly get the message that the police are against them.

Lack of compassion from those in authority such as police officers is an ongoing issue. While I know many officers who are doing a remarkable job, there’s also a portion whose treatment of people change due to ethnicity.

At the end of last year, I was fortunate to speak and engage with Aboriginal workers at the NSW Police Academy. Many of these employees know there’s a gap in the system and are committed to making a positive change for Aboriginal people and the wider community. However there also needs to be more training and positive and meaningful conversations between the police and the Aboriginal community to develop further understanding and compassion. When it comes the Aboriginal community, a lot of our people don’t need to be attacked or locked up. They need to be empowered and given the tools to navigate our thwarted system.

I feel the wider community needs to educate and empower. Education needs to start in the home. Parents need to teach their children from a young age to love unconditionally. We need to discuss our history and implement change to create a brighter future.

I recently released my latest single LOVE and the timing of that can’t be underestimated. I sing the song in Gamilaraay – my traditional Aboriginal language. The whole message is one of love, unity and acceptance, no matter what race, gender or religion you are. If the police and everyone in general could embrace this message more, we could actually create an amazing foundation for our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth, all Australian youth. Everyone needs to feel confident that they are safe to walk the streets.

Mitch Tambo Gamilaraay singer-songwriter and performer.

White House Doubles Down On Trump’s Smear Against Protester Shoved By Police
“They’re questions that need to be asked," White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said of the president's inflammatory tweet.

By Hayley Miller  11/06/2020 

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany on Wednesday defended President Donald Trump’s tweet that falsely accused a 75-year-old anti-racism protester who was shoved to the ground by police of being an “ANTIFA provocateur.”

During an interview with “Fox & Friends,” McEnany said Trump was simply raising questions based on a report he saw. The president’s tweet on Tuesday appeared to reference a segment that aired on OANN, a right-wing network that routinely disseminates conspiracy theories.

“They’re questions that need to be asked,” McEnany said of Trump’s tweet, which offered zero evidence to back up his claim. “In every case, we can’t jump on one side without looking at all the facts at play.”

She then accused the protester, longtime peace activist Martin Gugino of Buffalo, New York, of having posted “some very questionable” and “profanity-laden” tweets about police.

As of Wednesday, Gugino’s Twitter account was set to private. His tweets are only viewable to those granted access.

McEnany said that, despite whatever questions Trump may have about Gugino’s background, “no one condones any sort of violence.” She added that only the “appropriate amount of force” should be used in any interaction.

Trump, however, has a history of encouraging violence. In 2017, he encouraged police officers to hit suspects’ heads on the doors of their patrol cars. The following year, he praised a Montana Republican congressman who body-slammed a reporter as “my kind of guy.”

Last month, as anti-racism protests gained momentum across the US following the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one Trump tweet effectively called for looters to be shot. Twitter then applied a warning label to the post, stating that it violated the site’s rules against glorifying violence.

welp, the WH is doubling down
Kilmeade: Trump tweeted the 75-year-old protester might have been an antifa provocateur, can you expand on that?
McEnany: He was raising questions, there are questions that need to be asked in every case ...This guy had profanity laden tweets pic.twitter.com/KJUjjbqQxt— Lis Power (@LisPower1) June 10, 2020


McEnany on Wednesday said there were “a lot of questions” surrounding the incident in which two police officers aggressively pushed Gugino back during a peaceful protest in Buffalo last week.

Viral video of the interaction showed Gugino falling backward after being pushed and hitting his head on the concrete walkway, where he then lay still, bleeding from his ear. The officers stopped to look at him until another officer stepped in and directed them to keep walking.

Gugino has remained in the hospital since the incident. He is expected to move to the rehabilitation floor of the hospital and be released within the next two weeks, his attorney Kelly Zarcone said in a statement Wednesday.

The two officers involved have been suspended without pay and charged with second-degree assault.

In his tweet Tuesday, Trump accused Gugino of falling “harder than he was pushed” and using a “scanner” to “black out” officers’ equipment. “Could it be a set up?” the president asked.

No evidence has been publicly presented to suggest this.

Gugino has been described by his attorney and friends as a mild-mannered Catholic bachelor who returned to his hometown of Buffalo years ago to care for his ailing mother, The New York Times reported. For decades, his friends said, Gugino has taken part in demonstrations against nuclear weapons, climate change and police brutality.

His friends told the Times that Gugino is not a member of Antifa, an umbrella term for left-wing, anti-fascist activists.

McEnany on Wednesday rattled off a few vague questions about the incident, including why dozens of Buffalo police officers “resigned” afterward.

“You had 56 police officers who resigned in protest of how their fellow officers were treated,” she said. “I think we need to ask why those officers resigned, what happened, what facts were on the ground.”

In fact, those 57 officers did not leave the department but merely stepped down from their volunteer roles on the emergency response team. Two of those officers told local ABC affiliate WKBW that they did not resign in a “show of support” for the suspended officers, but because their union said they would no longer have its legal and financial backing in defending cases related to the protests.

“Why would we stand on a line for the city with no legal backing if something [were to] happen?” one officer said. “Has nothing to do with us supporting.”

Asked whether the timing of Trump’s tweet ― amid memorial ceremonies for Floyd and general unrest in the country ― was appropriate, McEnany doubled down.

“Look, the president has acknowledged so many times, and rightfully so, the injustice with George Floyd,” she said. “He gave an entire speech about Mr. Floyd and the grave injustice there. But the president was raising some questions ― some legitimate ones ― about that particular interaction, and it’s his prerogative to do so.”

The OANN segment that apparently inspired Trump’s so-called legitimate questions was reported by Kristian Rouz, who has worked for Russian propaganda state media and has a long history of peddling misinformation.

During a news conference later on Wednesday, NBC News’ Kristen Welker asked McEnany whether it should be incumbent upon the president to have facts before he posts smears like the one against Gugino.

“The president did have facts before he tweeted it out that undergirded his question,” McEnany said.

Welker asked if McEnany would acknowledge that Trump’s tweet was a “baseless conspiracy theory.” The press secretary said no.

.@kwelkernbc: Is it incumbent upon the president to have facts before he tweets out a conspiracy theory about a 75-year-old man?

McENANY: The president did have facts

WELKER: It's a baseless conspiracy theory

McENANY: It's not [it is] pic.twitter.com/c3lzx6niBz— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 10, 2020


Hayley Miller Reporter, The Huffington Post

Strategist who predicted the U.S. would ‘see a revolt of some kind by the 2020 election’ says U.S. in ‘danger zone’ and stocks will suffer

Markets may not like either outcome of the November election, this strategist writes

Demonstrators protest Saturday, June 6, 2020, near the White House in Washington, over the death of George Floyd, a black man who was in police custody in Minneapolis. ASSOCIATED PRESSPublished: June 13, 2020 By Andrea Riquier

America has lurched from one crisis to the next in 2020, knocking many people, even professional forecasters, off their feet. But not Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist for BCA Research.

“Unrest was an easy prediction even before the pandemic and recession, which made matters worse,” wrote Gertken in a note out Friday. With odds in favor of President Donald Trump continuing to fall in the aftermath of the recent riots protesting the death of a black man, George Floyd, at the hands of white police officers, Gertken expects more market volatility as investors attempt to handicap the eventual outcome of the November presidential election.

BCA’s team has been warning about social unrest for a few years, including in 2017, when they said “the U.S. will see a revolt of some kind by the 2020 election,” and late last year when Gertken predicted “tensions and controversies over race and immigration will swell in the coming year.”

In his most recent analysis, he skips the victory lap and instead focuses on what it means for markets. Broadly, volatility is likely to worsen, and equities SPX, +1.30% DJIA, +1.90% to be vulnerable. More specifically, Gertken notes, the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.36% is likely face choppy waters over the near term, but some of the headwinds may abate over the long term.

“The market is reacting to stimulus now,” Gertken writes, “but policies look to turn a lot tougher on business,” no matter who wins the White House in November.


US Ranks Worst In Our COVID-19 Social Unrest Rankings. Source: BCA Research

BCA analysts developed a “COVID-19 Unrest Table,” shown above, to chart economic fundamentals, vulnerability to COVID-19, household grievances, and governance indicators and thus rank countries according to their susceptibility to social unrest. The U.S. ranks last, behind Greece, among major developed countries in that sense.

The chart below, meanwhile, shows how the U.S. ranks compared with other countries, according to measures of income inequality and social immobility.


The US Is In The Danger Zone For Populism, Unrest. Source: BCA Research

Against that backdrop, Gertken says, “the election is inflaming the situation.” Faced with a worsening economy and a catalyzing episode of social injustice, President Donald Trump “is doubling down on ‘law and order,’ taking an aggressive stance against rioting and thus provoking a backlash.”

In the aftermath of the heavy-handed response to peaceful protests alongside riots and looting, online oddsmakers are giving Democrat Joe Biden a 56% chance of winning the White House, he notes.

“The market is waking up to the fact that Trump and the Republicans have a much greater chance of entirely losing control of the government,” Gertken writes. “Now it is likely to seep into the financial industry’s consciousness that US domestic political risks could still go higher.”


Read:A first-of-its-kind racial empowerment ETF is ‘flying under the radar.’ Maybe it shouldn’t.

While Gertken’s own forecast is for Trump to lose in November — he says “a health crisis and surge in unemployment alone are enough to undercut him given his thin margins of victory four years ago and low approval rating” — there are still two possible scenarios.

One is that an increase in African-American turnout makes Trump’s re-election bid more unlikely, he speculates. The other is that a “silent majority” of Americans are so repelled by the actions of the protesters might approve of the president’s actions if they appear to restore order, thus bolstering his chances. That’s a more likely outcome if there are more violent protests, Gertken thinks.

That means investors may be faced with two equally unsatisfying options.

“The election puts a self-limiting factor into the equity rally,” Gertken writes. “Either the market sells off in the short run to register the currently likely victory of Joe Biden, who will hike taxes, wages, and regulation, or the market rallies all the way till the election, increasing the chances of President Trump’s reelection, which would revolutionize the global system, especially on trade, and would require a selloff around December.”

There may be better news for dollar bulls, however: “We still expect investors to flee to the dollar in the event of any global crisis, even if it originates in the United States.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strategist-who-predicted-the-us-would-see-a-revolt-of-some-kind-by-the-2020-election-says-us-in-danger-zone-and-stocks-will-suffer-2020-06-08?mod=mw_latestnews

‘Disneyland reopening schedule looks like the unsafest thing ever’: Thousands sign petition asking to delay July opening

Guests will be required to make reservations in advance, and they’ll have temperature screenings before entering the park

Thousands of people have signed a petition demanding that Disney delay the reopening of its theme parks in Southern California. GETTY IMAGES

Published: June 13, 2020 By Jacob Passy

Disneyland DIS, +2.53% is aiming to reopen next month. But thousands of people are asking the company to reconsider when people can resume visiting.

Disney announced Wednesday that it set a goal to reopen the Disneyland and Disney California Adventure theme parks on July 17, with significant operational changes. The theme parks, which are located in Southern California, have been closed to the public since March 14 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.


The company also announced that the Downtown Disney shopping area located adjacent to the theme parks would reopen on July 9, while some of the resort’s hotels would reopen on July 23. The plans are subject to state and local government approval.

The capacity of the theme parks will be significantly limited in adherence with government requirements to allow for physical distancing, Disneyland officials said. Guests, including annual passholders, will be required to make a reservation in advance through a new system to visit the theme parks.


Following Disney’s announcement, a Change.org petition was created calling on the company to reopen Disneyland at a later date.

“Many people have lost loved ones due to this pandemic and by reopening the parks they are endangering cast members and guests to be exposed to COVID-19,” the petition reads in part. The petition also notes concerns about the potential for a second wave of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.


Also see:Walt Disney World cancels dining reservations and stops taking new hotel bookings ahead of planned July reopening

Since the petition was created, it has gathered nearly 9,000 signatures. Many also took to Twitter TWTR, +1.12% to raise concerns about the threats posed by reopening Disneyland next month.

Gossip blogger Perez Hilton even commented on the reopening plans, saying there should have been more concern voiced when Six Flags said it would resume reopening its parks.

But theme park experts said that Disney is unlikely to be swayed by the grassroots effort to postpone the parks’ reopening.

“The petition is not likely to have much effect one way or the other,” said Don Munsil, co-owner of travel website MouseSavers.com. “Disney regularly uses extensive market research to see how people feel about any planned action, so they’re more likely to check people’s feelings about reopening that way.”

Munsil added that Disney sent him and other regular Disney guests a survey about their plans and feelings about returning to the parks.

Additionally, Disney is more likely to respond to health data as it gauges its reopening. “The thing that would cause Disney to pause the reopening is if the number of new cases escalates dramatically in the next few week,” said Len Testa, president of travel website Touring Plans.

Disneyland is already set to open later than many other theme parks. The parks at the Universal Studio Orlando CMCSA, +0.53% resort reopened last week, while SeaWorld SEAS, +3.68% resumed operations at its Orlando theme park on Thursday. Six Flags SIX, +3.88% has resumed hiring at many of its regional theme parks across the country in anticipation of reopening.

As for Disney’s other parks around the world, Shanghai Disneyland reopened back in May, as did the Disney Springs shopping complex at Walt Disney World resort in Florida. The four theme parks at Walt Disney World are set to start welcoming visitors in early July. A reopening date has yet to be set for Disneyland Paris.

Prior to reopening its theme parks, Disney has instituted a range of temporary new policies and procedures to keep guests and workers healthy. These include temperature screenings prior to entering the parks, the required use of face masks and the elimination of experiences like parades and meet-and-greets where guests interact closely with Disney characters.

Disneyland officials said more information on enhanced health and safety measures and operational changes for reopening locations will be shared soon.

The only way to truly solve the race problem in America is to narrow the wealth gap, black economists say

Black people are poor relative to white people; nothing has changed in 70 years

There have been many advances for black Americans since the 1960s but the stunning wealth gap between white people and black people has not improved. MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES
The unrest in cities across the U.S. this week is just the latest manifestation of a struggle that will continue until the wealth gap between white people and black people is addressed, black economists said.

What is the wealth gap? It is the stark divide between how much capital white people and black people control.

By one estimate, the typical white family has wealth of $171,000. This is nearly ten times greater than the $17,150 for an average black family.

Put another way, the typical black household remains poorer than 80% of white households.

This stunning wealth gap between the races has persisted, in good times and bad, for the past 70 years. It did not get better after the civil rights era legislation was passed in the 1960s or during the Obama administration.

And it will continue to fuel unrest, economists said.

“As long as we have racial wealth gap, we’re going to have a problems with race,” said Patrick Mason, an economics professor at Florida State University.

“The wealth gap is one of the reasons there are protests today,” said Linwood Tauheed, a professor of economics at The University of Missouri-Kansas City and the president of the National Economics Association.

“I don’t necessarily want to use the phase it was the straw that broke the camels back...but we have lots of evidence that this economic system is not benefitting the majority of the population,“ he said.

“African Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are — that’s not new for us— but now you find young college students dissatisfied with their future.”

See: Protesters support Floyd, Black Lives Matter on 3 continents

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the fact that African-Americans have a lack of income to buy necessary health care, food and medicine and are suffering in greater numbers than white Americans.

Since the 1960s, the wealth gap has been largely ignored by the economics profession, black economists say.

For years, black economists struggled in the American Economics Association to even study the subject of wealth disparity between the races, black economists said. Universities and think tanks also didn’t support the work.

Black economists formed their own association, the National Economics Association, in 1969 to study the economic situation of black Americans.

“It was very difficult for a black economist to present a paper at an AEA conference that was questioning whether mainstream economists were understanding the economic disparity between the white and black community,” Tauheed said.

So called “mainstream” economists were really interested in more efficiency. “The wage gap is a question of equity or how to expand the pie,” said Karl Boulware, an economics professor at Wesleyan University. “The best way to think of wealth is to think of it as power,” he said.

In a statement to her membership Friday, former Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen, who is the president of the AEA, said her organization has “only begun to understand racism and its impact on our profession and our discipline.”


The wealth gap since 1989

The causes
Black economists say one historical cause of the wage gap is slavery.

“I don’t want to offend anybody, and don’t want to be labeled a radical but the wealth gap has its roots in the starting of America,” said Samuel Myers, an economist at the University of Minnesota.

JIm Crow laws put in place shortly after the Civil War also kept black people impoverished.

A more recent and complex cause was the systemic exclusion of black people from the U.S. housing market beginning in the 1920. Housing is one of the main engines of accumulating wealth in America.

Restrictive covenants were put on houses that limited where black people could live, said Tauheed. These covenants, combined with discriminatory credit policies, kept black people from building wealth.

At the same time, government policies were put in place to assist whites to build wealth through housing.

For instance, in Minneapolis, where the current protests began after the death of George Floyd while being detained by police, white Americans first benefitted from the Homestead Act.

Then white soldiers coming home from World War II were given cheap loans to buy homes in the surrounding suburbs. These neighborhoods were off limits to black people, said Myers.

And the only prosperous black community in the city was razed to the ground to build a highway to St. Paul, he added.

“My feeling is until and unless white people acknowledge that their wealth holdings and therefore the wealth gap is attributable to unearned entitlements from public policy, then we’re not going to even have a conversation” about solutions to the wealth gap, Professor Myers said.

The solutions

Black economists think that reparations — the direct payment to descendents of former slaves — would narrow the wealth gap.

But they are under no illusion that this policy could be easily become law as blacks make up 12% of the population.

Reparations “run into conflict with the American mythology of how you get ahead, which says that it’s all individual effort,” said Professor Mason from Florida State.

Sen. Cory Booker, the black U.S. Senator from New Jersey, pushed for “baby bonds” during his brief run for the presidency last year. The accounts, presented at birth, would be seeded with $1,000 and receive up to $2,000 extra every year depending on family income. They could only be used once the child reached the age of 18, with the funds limited for paying college, a home, or to start a business.

This idea is race-neutral and poor whites would benefit the most from such a program, Professor Myers noted.

“I don’t really think in the final analysis baby bonds are going to dramatically narrow the wealth gap but I’d be really happy if I’m wrong,” Myers said.

See also: Black Americans, their lives and livelihoods on the line, suffer most from the pandemic

Tucker Carlson Stuns Twitter Users With 'Most Racist' Thing He's Ever Said

Carlson tells Fox News viewers that a Black Lives Matter "mob" is coming for them.

By Ed Mazza

NEWS
10/06/2020 

Fox News host Tucker Carlson is coming under fire after a segment some critics called his most racist yet.

On Monday night, Carlson claimed Democrats and the Black Lives Matter movement were trying to eliminate the police and replace them with an armed “woke militia” to take over cities and increase the power of the Democratic Party.

“Democrats hate the police because they don’t control the police,” Carlson said.

He said the left had taken over the Pentagon and now planned to do the same to law enforcement.

“Imagine if the Black Lives Matter rioters had weapons and immunity from prosecution,” Carlson said. “That’s what they are talking about: partisan law enforcement.”

Carlson also declared that there was already a crackdown on free speech and thought happening.

“Here’s the new rule, and it defines everything: You are not allowed to question Black Lives Matter, in any way. Full stop,” he said.

But it was his comments later in the segment that received the most attention on social media. Carlson said if Democrats actually cared about Black lives, they’d do more to fight crime, close abortion clinics and keep families intact in cities. He then warned Fox News viewers the left will “come for you” rather than fix the cities.

“This may be a lot of things, this moment we’re living through, but it is definitely not about Black lives,” Carlson said. “And remember that when they come for you ― and at this rate, they will.”

He added:

Anyone who has ever been subjected to the rage of the mob knows the feeling. It’s like being swarmed by hornets. You cannot think clearly. And the temptation is to panic. But you can’t panic. You’ve got to keep your head and tell the truth. Tell the truth. If you show weakness of any kind, they will crush you.

The reaction on Twitter was swift:

“This may be a lot of things, this moment we are living through, but it is definitely not about black lives and remember that when they come for you, and at this rate, they will."@TuckerCarlson said black people are coming for you.

That just happened.pic.twitter.com/ATwYiwpOoh— Travis Akers (@travisakers) June 9, 2020


WHEN THEY COME FOR YOU.
Guys I think Tuckety Tuck might not care about black people? He might be racist? I’m not sure though https://t.co/JEpBWA31lw— nicole byer (@nicolebyer) June 9, 2020

I know there are many to choose from, but is this Tucker's most outright racist comment in his broadcasting career? Good lord. What a disgusting prick. https://t.co/tkdN98hawI— Fire the Fool (@FIRE_THE_FOOL) June 9, 2020

Strong “Birth of a Nation” vibes. Tucker always doing the most to fill old white people with unnecessary, racist fear. https://t.co/e0hGJCMdFA— John Haltiwanger (@jchaltiwanger) June 9, 2020

Tucker Carlson is a dangerous racist. https://t.co/Nohmy1PX6T— George Takei (@GeorgeTakei) June 9, 2020

Not even hiding it. https://t.co/PjocyCWs1v— Patton Oswalt (@pattonoswalt) June 9, 2020

This guy is so overtly racist. https://t.co/K3sdRqnJjo— Soledad O'Brien (@soledadobrien) June 9, 2020

“Black people are coming for you” says racist Tucker Carlson. https://t.co/IF6yTGUuGe— Richard Marx (@richardmarx) June 9, 2020

Tucker Carlson gets paid $6 million a year to tell white people to be scared of Black people and advertisers foot the bill. https://t.co/WTgHMd3SNx— Sleeping Giants (@slpng_giants) June 9, 2020

Fox News literally cannot survive without racism. As in, it is part and parcel of its business model. The protests right now are a threat — not because “black people are coming for them” — but because this is a moment of strong cross-racial solidarity.

It’s their Kryptonite. https://t.co/n176WXRHht— Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) June 9, 2020

That was hands down the most racist you've ever been...and thats quite an achievement considering every other racist thing you've ever said.— Crystal Warren (@happyenchilada2) June 9, 2020

This is shockingly racist, even for Fox News and Tucker Carlson. The fear mongering and politics of hated is just going to keep getting worse.

Buckle up, this is going to be a bumpy ride. #ONEV1#PresidentBiden
pic.twitter.com/EoAAC3U69q— Chris Thompson (@chris_maconlaw) June 9, 2020

That was perhaps the most racist thing I’ve ever seen!— Brian Just Another "Coastal Elite" (@2016bucketojunk) June 9, 2020

We're now referring to Tucker Carlson as "racist trash." #BlackLivesMatterhttps://t.co/aJ08KPU4As— MoveOn #BlackLivesMatter (@MoveOn) June 9, 2020

Wow, even for Tucker, that's racist https://t.co/0Fn4yHvwNI— preppa pig (@RaisingOneBrow) June 9, 2020

“Tucker’s warning about ‘when they come for you’ was clearly referring to Democratic leaders and inner city politicians,” a Fox News spokesperson told HuffPost.