Freight’s carbon problem: U.S. set for huge rise in emissions in 2025


By Dr. Tim Sandle
DIGITAL JOURNAL
March 22, 2025


Trucks queue in Tijuana near the Mexico-US border - Copyright AFP Guillermo Arias

U.S. truck freight emissions are projected to rise by 28 million metric tons in 2025. In total, 392 million metric tons of carbon dioxide was emitted in total by U.S. truck freight in 2023, which is predicted to increase by 7 percent in 2025 to 420 million metric tons.

Freight is a major contributor to emissions, and trucks are the fastest-growing source, significantly contributing to air pollution and emission intensity which is exacerbated by traffic congestion and idle vehicles.

To derive at these figures, InTek Logistics analysed Federal Highway Administration’s data to identify the most delayed freight corridors and highest-emission truck routes to calculate the highest-emission state-to-state truck freight routes per year.

The predicted rise in US emissions is concerning, as 28 million metric tons is equivalent to:

• Adding over 6 million cars to the road.
• 370,667 tanker trucks worth of gasoline.
• 5,835,079 homes’ electricity for one year.

According to U.S. government data, transportation accounts for the largest portion (28 percent) of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, 80 percent of which is generated by both light and medium-heavy duty vehicles. As a result of this, shippers are under increasing pressure to reduce their environmental impact.Trucks being loaded with coal in Lianyungang, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province – Copyright AFP/File STR

It is an additional concern that all states in the ‘top ten most emission intensive list’ from 2023 are set to increase their carbon dioxide output in 2025 by up to 13 percent.

The U.S. states with the highest truck freight emissions for 2025 are:

• Texas – 57 MMT (12% increase)
• California – 38 MMT (13% increase)
• Illinois – 19 MMT (3% increase)
• Florida – 18 MMT (1% increase)
• Ohio – 16 MMT (8% increase)
• Georgia – 14 MMT (6% increase)
• Michigan – 14 MMT (9% increase)
• Pennsylvania – 14 MMT (10% increase)
• New York – 13 MMT (3% increase)
• Minnesota –12 MMT (2% increase)

Note: MMT represents ‘million metric tons’.

Texas is set to remain the most emission intensive freight destination with its current footprint of 51 million metric tons set to increase by 12 percent to 57 million metric tons in 2025. California comes in second place with a road freight footprint of 34 million metric tons in 2023, forecast to increase by 13 percent to 38 million metric tons in 2025.

Rick LaGore, co-founder and CEO at InTek Logistics tells Digital Journal: “The predicted increase in carbon emissions in Texas and across the rest of the US is alarming. Sustainability credentials are increasingly becoming an expectation rather than a nice to have, as regulations change, and consumer and stakeholder expectations evolve. It is therefore vital that shippers try to mitigate their impact on the environment.”

He adds: “Using intermodal transportation is a simple way to improve sustainability as it reduces the number of trucks on the road and offers far more fuel efficiency than trucking. Just one intermodal train can carry the equivalent of 280 trucks. This makes intermodal a powerhouse in reducing carbon footprints by 60 percent as compared to trucking.”