No breakthrough in French pensions impasse

AFP / Christophe SIMONA CGT union banner reading "On Strike" Tuesday at a blocked oil refinery in Martigues, southern France, as part of protests over a pension reform.

Talks between the French government and unions aimed at ending a 34-day transport strike failed Tuesday to break the deadlock over a planned pensions overhaul, one of the most hotly contested reforms launched by President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron's push for sweeping changes to the pension system has unleashed the longest transport strike in France in decades, causing weeks of travel chaos in Paris particularly.

As the standoff expanded to oil refineries, raising fears of petrol shortages, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said that both sides needed to "budge a little."

While insisting the reforms would not be withdrawn, he made conciliatory noises about the government's proposals to extend the minimum age for receiving a full pension to 64 from 62.

AFP / Lionel BONAVENTUREPrime Minister Edouard Philippe addressed journalists after his meeting with union leaders in Paris on Thursday, the 34th day of a massive transport strike.

The proposal, which aims to get the French to work longer, has prompted an outcry, including from the more moderate unions with which the government is hoping to do a deal.

"The pivot age (64) must be removed from the bill," said Laurent Berger, the leader of the moderate CFDT union, France's largest, giving the government an ultimatum to rescind the proposal by Friday.

Philippe said that if unions could come up with a better way of ensuring that the pension system remains solvent, "I will take it."

But the hardline CGT union, the biggest at state rail operator SNCF, continued to demand that the government scrap the reforms outright.

"The only overture we want to hear is, 'We're stopping everything'," CGT leader Philippe Martinez told France Inter radio.

On Tuesday, the strike hit oil refineries following calls by the CGT for a blockade of petrol shipments.

The government said five of the country's eight refineries were experiencing "temporary delivery difficulties" but the CGT insisted all eight were affected.

- Retailers hurting -

As the standoff continues, public support for the strike, which remained high throughout the first month, has begun to fall.

A Harris Interactive poll released Monday showed 60 percent backing the industrial action, down nine points since it started.

An Ifop poll gave it just 44 percent backing, down seven points from the previous survey on December 19-20.

The reform would eliminate 42 separate pension schemes that offer early retirement and other advantages, mainly to public-sector workers, in favour of a single system.

The CGT and FO unions have called for a new day of mass walkouts on Thursday, which could see schools shut and public transport even more impacted than usual.

Train operator SNCF says it has lost more than 600 million euros ($670 million) in ticket sales since the strike began on December 5.

The head of the Paris chamber of trades and crafts said retail sales in the capital were down by 30 to 40 percent.

- 'Gritting our teeth' -

As the weeks pass, the number of striking rail and metro workers has tapered off, partly due to lost pay.

"For now, we are gritting our teeth," Eric Challal, a striking customer service agent at Gare du Nord station in Paris, told AFP.

The strike is the longest continuous stoppage on French railways since the national rail service was created in the 1930s.

Macron made the pensions overhaul a key plank of his 2017 election campaign, saying a single, points-based system would be fairer, in particular for women and low earners.

The government has already made a series of concessions to the police, military, rail workers and Paris Opera employees, allowing them to continue to retire early or to keep their separate benefits for several years to come.

But most salaried workers born in 1975 or later would be impacted by the new system, in which people would earn points based on lifetime earnings.

Currently, most pensions are calculated on a worker's 25 best years of earnings -- public workers, however, get payouts based on their last six months.

French pension talks resume as govt seeks to end standoff

AFP / Martin BUREAUFrench unions have called for blockades of refineries and fuel depots starting Tuesday, when talks resume on the government's pension overhaul

French officials prepared to restart talks with unions Tuesday over a pension overhaul that has sparked the country's longest transport strikes in decades, which labour leaders say could force millions of people to retire later than they thought.

Public support appears to be shifting in the government's favour, with just 44 percent backing the strike in an Ifop poll released Sunday, down seven points from the previous survey on December 19-20.

The reform would eliminate 42 separate pension schemes that offer early retirement and other advantages, mainly to public-sector workers, in favour of a single system.

It would also create a "pivot age" of 64 to benefit from a full pension, penalising those who stop working at the official retirement age of 62 -- one of the lowest in Europe.

The government insists the measure is necessary for ensuring sufficient financing for the deficit-plagued system.

Yet officials have seized on an offer by France's largest union, the moderate CFDT, to hold separate talks on how to finance the plan later, in order to end the impasse over the pivot age.

AFP / JEAN-PHILIPPE KSIAZEKLawyers demonstrated against the pension overhauls in Lyon, southeast France, on Monday

"That's a very good idea," Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Monday. "Never has a compromise seemed so close."

But the hard-line CGT and Force Ouvriere unions have vowed to derail the plan, urging a new day of mass walkouts against the reform on Thursday, which could see schools shut and public transport even more impacted than usual.

Train operator SNCF says it has lost more than 600 million euros ($670 million) in ticket sales since the strike began on December 5, and Paris commutes have been headaches for millions who rely on the RATP's metro, bus and suburban rail lines.

- 'We have to hold out' -

The CGT has stepped up its protest with a four-day blockade of refineries and fuel depots starting Tuesday, raising the prospect of petrol shortages.

Nurses, physiotherapists and lawyers, among dozens of professions with their own advantageous pension regimes, have also voted for strike actions this week.

But the number of striking rail and metro workers tapered off over the holidays, and the lost pay could make it hard to keep up the protest.

"It's going to be hard but we have to hold out at least until Friday," Mounir, an RATP employee, said Monday as drivers voted to prolong the strike.

Unions say they are relying on reserve funds and donations to limit the financial hit for strikers, in what has been France's longest continuous train strike since the national rail service was created in the 1930s.

President Emmanuel Macron made the pensions overhaul a key plank in his 2017 election campaign, saying a single points-based system would be fairer to women and low-earners in particular.

The government has already made a series of concessions to police and military personnel as well as SNCF workers, allowing them to continue retiring early or keep their separate benefits for several years yet.

But most salaried workers born in 1975 or later would be impacted by the new system, in which people would earn points based on their lifetime earnings, which would be converted into pension payouts upon retirement.

Currently, most pensions are calculated from a worker's 25 best years of earnings -- public workers, however, get payouts based on their last six months of pay, a more favourable base.

An Elabe poll released Monday found that most French (54 percent) support the points-based plan, though two-thirds oppose the pivot age of 64.

French government, unions resume pension talks amid transit strike

By Danielle Haynes


Access to a subway station is closed during a strike in Paris on Sept. 13. File Photo by Ian Langsdon/EPA-EFE

Jan. 7 (UPI) -- The French government and union representatives restarted negotiations Tuesday with the aim of ending the longest transportation strike in decades and coming to terms on reforms for the country's pension programs.

The talks began as the protests against President Emmanuel Macron's pension plan became the longest work strike since 1968. The transportation stoppage, which began Dec. 5, is the longest in the train service's nine-decade history.

Protests and the off-and-on public transit strikes have been ongoing for months since Macron announced plans to combine France's various pension plans into one system.

His attempt to even out the retirement age across all systems to 64 has been a main source of contention for workers. Currently, the official retirement age to receive a full pension in France is 62.

Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said he believes the government and unions can come to an agreement. Still, transit workers haven't called off the strikes, which have led to more than $650 million in lost ticket sales.

Rail systems expect to be about 75 percent operational overall Wednesday. The Channel Tunnel service is fully operational, while the international Eurostar is about 90 percent operational.

Snipers to cull up to 10,000 camels in drought-stricken Australia

AFP/File / Torsten BlackwoodCamels were first introduced to Australia in the 1840s to aid in the exploration of the continent's vast interior

Snipers took to helicopters in Australia on Wednesday to begin a mass cull of up to 10,000 camels as drought drives big herds of the feral animals to search for water closer to remote towns, endangering indigenous communities.

Local officials in South Australia state said "extremely large" herds have been encroaching on rural communities -- threatening scarce food and drinking water, damaging infrastructure, and creating a dangerous hazard for drivers.

It comes after Australia experienced its hottest and driest year on record in 2019, with the severe drought causing some towns to run out of water and fuelling deadly bushfires that have devastated the country's southeast.

The five-day cull in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) Lands -- home to about 2,300 indigenous people in the north-west of South Australia -- is the first in the state, local media reported.

"These (camel) groups are putting pressure on the remote Aboriginal communities in the APY Lands and the pastoral operations as the camels search for water," the APY Lands executive committee said in a statement.

South Australia's environment department, which is supporting the aerial cull, said the drought had also created "critical animal welfare issues" as some camels have died of thirst or trampled each other as they rush to find water.

"In some cases dead animals have contaminated important water sources and cultural sites," a spokesperson added.

Camels were first introduced to Australia in the 1840s to aid in the exploration of the continent's vast interior, with up to 20,000 imported from India in the six decades that followed.

Australia is now thought to have the largest wild camel population in the world, with official estimates suggesting more than one million are roaming the country's inland deserts.

The animals are considered a pest, as they foul water sources and trample native flora while foraging for food over vast distances each day.

Traditional owners in the APY Lands have for years mustered and sold off feral camels but more recently they have "been unable to manage the scale and number of camels that congregate in dry conditions", according to the environment department.

As a result, "up to 10,000 camels will be destroyed in accordance with the highest standards of animal welfare", it added.

Public broadcaster ABC reported the animals would be killed away from communities and the carcasses burned.

PAY EQUITY

Chess queens battle for king's ransom as prize money rises

AFP / STRThe 500,000 euros on the table in the showdown between holder Ju Wenjun and challenger Aleksandra Goryachkina is the largest prize fund in the history of the Women's World Championship

Two of the sharpest minds in women's chess are doing battle this week in Shanghai with a world champion title on the line and a record prize fund as the game seeks to close the gender gap.

The 500,000 euros on the table in the showdown between holder Ju Wenjun and challenger Aleksandra Goryachkina is the largest prize fund in the nearly 100-year history of the Women's World Championship.

The International Chess Federation (FIDE) says it is a significant moment for women's chess, which has long lagged behind the publicity, pay packets and participation of men.

The winner between the grandmasters from China and Russia -- which will be determined over 12 game days in Shanghai and Vladivostok -- takes home 300,000 euros.

The total purse is a 150-percent hike on the previous women's championship match, according to FIDE, and the format of the competition has been changed to mirror the World Chess Championship, which is theoretically open to all but has been dominated by men.

"We are trying to increase the prestige of the women's game and also close the pay gap with the men," said Nigel Short, once one of the top-ranked players in the world and now FIDE vice president.

"It's something that we are concerned about and we are trying to do our best to improve the conditions in particular for women's chess," the 54-year-old Briton said.

AFP / STRGoryachkina called the changes to the women's tournament "very positive" but said she was motivated by winning the title, not the cash

Moves to boost women's chess came with the election of Arkady Dvorkovich as FIDE president in October 2018. He is a former deputy prime minister of Russia.

Speaking on the eve of Sunday's opening game, rising star Goryachkina, 21, called the changes "very positive" but said she was motivated by winning the title, not the cash.

Shohreh Bayat, chief arbiter for the match between Goryachkina and the 28-year-old Ju, laughed off the notion that this is chess's #MeToo moment.

But the Iranian said: "There were many complaints from women players about the format of tournaments, such as this one, and the prize money."

Bayat hopes that one day women will earn the same as the likes of Magnus Carlsen, the world champion and best-known name in chess.

"In chess right now, if you compare their ratings, men are better players than women, there's a big difference," said Bayat.

The effort to improve the standing of women's chess extends to having more female tournaments and more women as coaches and arbiters, Bayat added.

- Help or hindrance? -

But the 500,000 euros for the Women's World Championship match is still only half of the World Chess Championship prize fund.

And some believe that female-only tournaments hinder rather than promote equality.

"Perhaps there is an argument for scrapping girls-only sections and best girl prizes in junior tournaments," said David Cox, a freelance journalist and contributor to the website Chess.com.

"After all, chess is a sport where men and women can compete on a level playing field, and that would push more girls to aim higher and keep trying to improve to be the best player overall, rather than the best girl."

There are various theories why men dominate the top 100 in the FIDE ratings.

Cox and Bayat believe a major factor is simply that there are significantly more men than women playing.

AFP / STRThe winner between the grandmasters from China and Russia -- which will be determined over 12 game days in Shanghai and Vladivostok -- takes home 300,000 euros

At US Chess, only 14.5 percent of its 92,000 members are female, although that is more than double what it was in 2000 and a record high.

Jennifer Shahade, a two-time US women's champion, believes that FIDE is on "the right track" with the significant increase in prize money.

Shahade, women's programme director at US Chess, said: "Building a strong base of female players is crucial to developing the game.

"I think chess is particularly crucial in a time of constant distraction, where the intellectual is de-emphasised in favour of the immediate and the visual," she added.

"Men, kids, and especially women and girls, need the benefits of chess right now more than ever."

8JAN2020

   

Australians urged to 'leave early' in face of new bushfire threat

AFP / SAEED KHANHouses in Mogo Village in Australia's New South Wales were gutted by bushfire

Australian officials issued fresh evacuation warnings Wednesday ahead of a forecast spike in the intensity of out-of-control bushfires that have devastated vast swathes of countryside and sent smoke clouds as far away as Brazil.

Residents of Victoria state's fire-ravaged east were urged to leave before another heatwave raises the bushfire danger Friday, while in South Australia state authorities began relocating people from a small community on Kangaroo Island.

"Leave, and leave early," Victoria police minister Lisa Neville urged those in the danger zone.

"Everything we've done in terms of... issuing warnings has been about saving lives, and today I'm asking people to continue to heed the messages that we are giving."

The catastrophic bushfires have been fuelled by a crippling drought that has turned forests to tinder and exacerbated by climate change, which scientists say is increasing the length and intensity of Australia's fire season.

Authorities on Wednesday confirmed that a fourth firefighter had died while battling the blazes, bringing the overall death toll to 26 people.

More than 2,000 homes have been destroyed since the crisis began in September and some eight million hectares (80,000 square kilometres) has been burned, an area the size of Ireland or South Carolina.

University of Sydney scientists estimate one billion animals have been killed in the fires. The figure includes mammals, birds and reptiles, but not frogs, insects or invertebrates.

Smoke from the fires has been spotted more than 12,000 kilometres (7,400 miles) away in Brazil and Argentina, weather authorities in the South American countries said.

- 'Leave early' -

Despite days of cooler weather and rainfall in parts of the country's east, dozens of areas continue to burn out of control, and Australians are bracing for yet another heatwave that could spark fresh fires.

The country experienced its driest and hottest year on record in 2019, with its highest average maximum temperature of 41.9 degrees Celsius (107.4 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded in mid-December.

AUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE/AFP / Tristan KennedyMembers of the Royal South Australia Regiment rescued this koala from fires at the Kangaroo Island Wildlife Park in Kingscote

Each time the mercury has risen in recent months, the risk of deadly blazes has also soared.

Unprecedented in scale even in bushfire-prone Australia, the fires have shocked the world and prompted an outpouring of support from celebrities, athletes and leaders around the globe.

Authorities warn the disaster still has weeks or months to run.

Residents have begun returning to fire-raved towns to assess damage, but the cost of the disaster was still unclear.

The Insurance Council of Australia says claims worth Aus$700 million ($485 million) had already been filed and the figure was expected to climb significantly.

The government has earmarked an initial Aus$2 billion ($1.4 billion) for a national recovery fund to help devastated communities.

Why Australia is uniquely vulnerable to wildfires

Mike Bebernes
Editor,
Yahoo News 360•January 7, 2020
“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories.


Deadly wildfires continue to spread across Australia

What’s happening

Large areas of Australia are being consumed by wildfires that have destroyed thousands of homes, killed 24 people and potentially as many as 480 million animals. At least 15 million acres have burned, more than in recent fires in California and Brazil combined.

While the fires are affecting the entire country, the most significant damage is in the southeastern state of New South Wales. Residents of some rural towns have been forced to flee to nearby beaches to escape advancing flames. So much smoke has entered the air, it’s creating its own weather systems and turning glaciers gray.

Dangerous wildfires are not new to Australia. In 2009, 173 people were killed as extreme conditions fueled hundreds of bush fires on a day now known locally as “Black Saturday.” Similar circumstances have fed the current fires. In recent weeks, Australia has seen unprecedented heat — including the country’s hottest day ever — along with powerful winds. These conditions have arisen as Australia faces its worst drought in decades.

Why there’s debate

The most commonly cited explanation for the severity of the fires is climate change. Due to the already extreme conditions found throughout its enormous landmass, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate. The effects aren’t limited to fires: Unprecedented floods forced mass evacuations in early 2019, and rising ocean temperatures have devastated the Great Barrier Reef.

Some of the factors fueling the fires are beyond Australia’s control. No one country is solely responsible for climate change. For its size, Australia has a relatively small population, which limits the manpower and financial resources it has to combat the fires. Unlike California and Brazil, where most fires are sparked by human activities, Australia's fires are believed to be started primarily by natural occurrences like lightning.

At the same time, the Australian government has been criticized for not taking the fires and the climate effects that fuel them seriously. Due to the country’s massive coal industry, Australians are among the worst polluters per capita in the world. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been criticized for saying that the fires do not justify a reduction in coal production.

What’s next

Morrison has committed $1.4 billion in funds to help communities recover from the fires. Temperatures dropped slightly on Monday, offering firefighters a chance to make progress in their efforts to contain the blazes. The worst isn’t necessarily over, however. It is the middle of summer in Australia, which means fire season is still in full swing. “The fires are still burning. And they’ll be burning for months to come,” Morrison said.
Perspectives

Australia is experiencing the predictable results of climate change

“Take record heat, combine it with unprecedented drought in already dry regions and you get unprecedented bushfires like the ones engulfing the Blue Mountains and spreading across the continent. It’s not complicated. The warming of our planet — and the changes in climate associated with it — are due to the fossil fuels we’re burning.” — Michael Mann, Guardian

Australia is a window into the how climate change will affect other parts of the planet

“Australia serves as a microcosm of all the complicated ways that climate variables interact. Its weather this year also shows what other parts of the world may face as temperatures continue to rise.” — Umair Irfan, Vox

Australia feels the impacts of climate change more acutely than anywhere else

“Australia today is ground zero for the climate catastrophe. Its glorious Great Barrier Reef is dying, its world-heritage rain forests are burning, its giant kelp forests have largely vanished, numerous towns have run out of water or are about to, and now the vast continent is burning on a scale never before seen.” — Richard Flanagan, New York Times

The fire threat has been underplayed because it historically doesn’t affect major coastal cities

“The most remarkable thing about this bushfire season is that people can see it, taste it and feel it. While fires have long been a product of the country’s hot, dry climate, they remained a remote idea for most Australians — something you caught for a few minutes on the evening news.” — Daniel Moss and Tim Culpan, Bloomberg

Australia has put economic growth over limiting carbon emissions

“For the past few decades, the arid and affluent country of 25 million has padded out its economy — otherwise dominated by sandy beaches and a bustling service sector — by selling coal to the world. … But now Australia is buckling under the conditions that its fossil fuels have helped bring about.” — Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic

Modern agriculture broke a balanced natural burn cycle

“Before colonization, fire was managed with cultural burning, sometimes called fire-stick farming, which prevented vegetation build-up, germinated seed pods and regenerated the trees and grasses that need fire to grow new shoots. … That changed after 1788. When the country was forcibly settled, large swaths of managed land were cleared to make way for livestock unsuited to an Australian environment.” — Jessica Friedmann, Globe and Mail

The country’s extreme environments are particularly vulnerable

“The magnetic physical beauty of Australia is based, literally, on its fragility. The continent lives very close to the fine line between supportable life and extinction. When you drive into the outback, as I have done, and into the endless flatness of red desert, and eventually come to a small road town, it’s evident that this outpost of life can have no physical roots: It sits directly and rudely on the earth’s crust.” — Clive Irving, Daily Beast

People have come to accept extreme natural events as just another part of life

“The duration of this climate horror has allowed us to normalize it even while it continues to unfold — continues to torture, and brutalize, and terrify.” — David Wallace-Wells, New York

Is there a topic you’d like to see covered in “The 360”? Send your suggestions to the360@yahoonews.com.

Bernie could win the Democratic nomination. But he has to show he can beat Trump.
POLLS SHOWED HE WOULD HAVE DEFEATED TRUMP IN 2016

Andrew Romano West Coast Correspondent Yahoo News•January 7, 2020

Long dismissed by pundits and underestimated by his rivals, Bernie Sanders spent his holiday season surging to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote in this year’s Democratic presidential primary. The only surveys released so far this month, both conducted by CBS News and YouGov, show the Vermont senator tied for first in the former and leading in the latter.

Nationally, Sanders trails only longtime polling leader Joe Biden, having just crossed the 20 percent threshold in the RealClear Politics average for the first time since last April, while both Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have been trending downward.
Bernie Sanders at a recent campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

And Sanders is far and away 2020’s top dog among Democrats when it comes to fundraising; his fourth-quarter haul of $34.5 million was the largest of the cycle, and no candidate ever has had as many individual donors — 5 million — by this point in the election cycle.

All of which has led some experts to a conclusion that would have been unthinkable a few months ago.

“Bernie is the frontrunner,” said former Barack Obama staffer Tommy Vietor on Monday’s episode of the influential progressive podcast “Pod Save America.” “He’s winning in Iowa and he’s winning in New Hampshire — I don’t know how to describe a frontrunner any other way. He raised $34.5 million this quarter without doing any fundraising events? It’s impossible to overstate how valuable that is to a candidate. If you have a strong performance in Iowa and you just get tens of millions of dollars rolling in online? I mean, he’s a juggernaut.”
Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Biden would, of course, debate Vietor’s frontrunner assessment. But what’s now clear is that Sanders’s path to the nomination is just as plausible as the former vice president’s: Finish strong in Iowa, win New Hampshire, win Nevada (a caucus state where his superior organization and solid Latino and union support could help); win the supreme prize of California on Super Tuesday (where Sanders has led in many recent polls); knock out Warren; consolidate the progressive vote; and compete with Biden for delegates all the way to the convention.

And so the question is no longer whether Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. But now he faces a bigger question: Can he defeat Donald Trump?

By now it’s conventional wisdom that electability is the most important thing to Democratic voters; poll after poll has shown that picking a candidate who can evict Trump from the White House is the party’s top priority. And so every time a contender rises in the standings, he or she is subjected to an electability stress-test of sorts. Kamala Harris came first, and for whatever reason — race, gender, lack of message clarity — was found wanting. Elizabeth Warren was next; her awkward embrace of Medicare for All spooked Democrats who were otherwise ready to imagine her facing off against Trump, and she summarily fell from second place to fourth place in the polls.
Supporters of Bernie Sanders at a rally in Los Angeles. (Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

Soon it will be Sanders’s turn.

His people have always known this was coming. They know the arguments. They know that their boss is a 78-year-old Jewish democratic socialist who has only ever won elections in Vermont, perhaps the bluest state in the nation. They know America has never elected a Jewish president, or a 78-year-old president, or a democratic socialist president. They know that Sanders’s signature “political revolution” — Medicare for All, Green New Deal, free college, zero student debt, a massive increase in education spending, comprehensive immigration reform and so on — would cost $51 trillion if enacted. They know that in a general election, Trump and his Republican allies would weaponize that sticker shock along with various episodes from Sanders’s past — his 10-day “honeymoon” in the Soviet Union; his Reagan-era sympathy for Marxist-inspired movements in the developing world; his wife’s troubled tenure as president of Burlington College — in ways that make whatever scrutiny Sanders has so far received from Democrats seem positively dainty in comparison.

And so they and other Bernie fans have for months pointed out that, in fact, their man has led Trump in nearly every national head-to-head poll conducted since the start of 2019, and that only Biden leads by more, on average. (Both Buttigieg and Warren have recently fallen behind the president.) They have highlighted a similar dynamic in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where recent polls have also showed Sanders, but not Warren, slightly ahead of Trump. They have noted that, in Vermont, Sanders, who identifies as an independent, always ran ahead of Democratic presidential campaigns — in part, says Vox’s Matthew Yglesias, “by getting the votes of some non-Republicans who backed Perot in the 1990s and, more recently, other third-party candidates such as Jill Stein, Ralph Nader, and Gary Johnson.” And they have argued that Sanders’s outsider, anti-establishment appeal would similarly expand the Democratic electorate in 2020, citing his strength among both working-class voters and younger nonvoters as evidence.

Sanders’s Democratic rivals have yet to weaponize the doubts about his electability. At next week’s debate in Des Moines, they may begin. To his committed supporters, none of their objections — that Bernie’s expensive plans would alienate the moderate suburbanites who fueled the Democratic House takeover in 2018; that recent polls in must-win Virginia have in fact showed Sanders trailing Trump by more than any of the other Democratic frontrunners — are likely to matter.
Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP

But he will be tested all the same.

The first test will be how he responds when challenged. Does he seem like the sort of candidate who is ready to deflect incoming fire from Republicans? This, more than anything policy-related, is the test that Warren failed when she stumbled over Medicare for All last fall, and it’s why Sanders, who also supports a single-payer system, hasn’t let it trip him up. Will he still project that same self-assurance while under attack from his Democratic rivals?

The second test will come later, starting with the results of the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3. Right now, 36 percent of Sanders’s supporters in Iowa say they would be first-time caucus-goers, a higher percentage than Buttigieg’s 25 percent or Biden’s 24 percent. Will they show up on caucus night and propel Sanders to victory? If so, that will provide proof of his expand-the-electorate argument — and if he can continue to pull off the same trick in New Hampshire, Nevada, California and elsewhere, it will go a long way to quelling concerns about his electability.

It may even give him a chance to take the ultimate electability test next November.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHy9jZ8tDk0

DISASTER CAPITALISM

Economic impact of Australia's bushfires set to exceed $4.4bn cost of Black Saturday

Fires will cripple consumer confidence and harm industries such as farming and tourism, Moody’s says

Ben Butler
Wed 8 Jan 2020
 

Destroyed buildings in Cobargo, NSW. The risk of damage

 to the broader economy is high because the fire season

 still has months to run, Moody’s says. 

Photograph: Sean Davey/AAP

The economic damage from the bushfires devastating Australia’s eastern seaboard is likely to exceed the record $4.4bn set by 2009’s Black Saturday blazes, Moody’s Analytics has said.

The Moody’s economist Katrina Ell said the fires would further cripple Australia’s already anaemic consumer confidence, increasing the chances of a rate cut next month, as well as causing damage to the economy through increased air pollution and direct harm to industries such as farming and tourism.

She said the risk of damage to the broader economy, outside areas ravaged by fire, was increased because the bushfire season still had months to run.

So far the fires have charred at least 8.4m hectares across the whole country, compared with the 450,000 ha affected by Black Saturday.

Tourism is the lifeblood of NSW's south coast. Will we recover before the next bushfire crisis?

The 2009 fires, which ripped through relatively densely populated rural areas north of Melbourne, killed 173 people and almost completely destroyed the town of Marysville.


So far, 25 people are known to have died in this season’s fires, which have also done severe damage to many towns, including Cobargo and Mogo on the NSW south coast, and Mallacoota in the far south-east of Victoria.


Ell said that in the past bushfires had tended only to hurt the local economies directly in the path of the flames.

“But the risk of there being broader macroeconomic spillovers this season are high given the scale of the fires, as well as the fact that it is still early in the bushfire season and the existing fires are yet to be contained,” she said.

She said the direct effect on local industries came on top of the pain of Australia’s lengthy drought.

“Damage to fresh produce will put upward pressure on consumer prices, given that most fresh fruit and vegetables consumed at home are sourced locally,” she said.

She said tourism had also taken a “significant hit” during what is normally peak season.

Tourism bodies say it will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild.

“Visitor numbers are significantly down in summer hot spots as smoke haze and uncertainty about safety keep local and international travellers away,” she said.

She said broader effects included air pollution, which has affected 30% of the population, and would cause “reduced worker productivity, increased health spending, and lower crop yields”, as well as road closures and the cost to insurers.

As of Monday, more than 8,200 claims worth about $644m had been lodged, according to Insurance Council of Australia data.

The ratings agency S&P said the claims were likely to crimp the profitability of insurers and lead to rises in premiums.

Ell said indirect damage to the economy would be “significant”.

“The devastating social impacts of the fires mean that already-fragile consumer confidence will take an added hit,” she said.

“The Australian consumer was already shying away from discretionary spending and the widespread air pollution and devastation are further deterrents.”

She said the odds of the Reserve Bank cutting official rates from the already record low level of 0.75% to 0.5% when its board meets on 4 February were already high.

Should fossil fuels pay for Australia's new bushfire reality? It is the industry most responsible

Amanda Cahill “The fires increase those odds,” she said.

But she said direct spending by governments on the recovery effort would probably be more effective.

“Fiscal measures can target the particular areas concerned, whereas monetary policy has a blunt impact,” she said.

The Morrison government has so far pledged $2bn in fire relief – although the money will flow over two years – and the prime minister, Scott Morrison, and the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, have weakened their previously rock-solid commitment to returning the budget to surplus.

“This potentially gives the government more flexibility to support the rebuild efforts and the broader economy,” Ell said.

She said rebuilding efforts usually helped offset the damage caused by fires.

“But in this circumstance, rebuilding could be delayed for months, since many fires are ongoing, and this is only the start of the usual bushfire season.

“It could be some months before efforts move from fire containment to rebuilding.”

The economic impact has been particularly severe on Kangaroo Island, off the coast of South Australia, where tourists have been evacuated, farms devastated and timber plantations burned.

On Wednesday, Kangaroo Island Plantation Timber told the stock exchange about 90% of its timber had been affected by the fire, which has burned the western third of the island.

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UPDATED

Puerto Rico in state of emergency after most powerful quake in over 100 years

Island rocked by hundreds of earthquakes in recent weeks, killing at least one person and prompting power and water outages


Guardian staff and agencies

Tue 7 Jan 2020

 

A damaged house on the coast of Guánica, 

a municipality in the southwest of Puerto Rico. 

Photograph: Thais Llorca/EPA


Puerto Rico’s governor, Wanda Vázquez, declared a state of emergency and activated the national guard on Tuesday after a series of earthquakes including one of magnitude 6.4 that was the most powerful to strike the Caribbean island in 102 years.

The quakes killed at least one person, provoked a protective power outage across the entire island and cut off drinking water to 300,000 customers, Vázquez told a news conference.
 A priest inspects damage to the Parroquia

 Inmaculada Concepción church after a 6.4

 earthquake hit just south of the island on 

Tuesday. Photograph: Eric Rojas/Getty Images

At least 346 people were left homeless, officials said, as homes were flattened, mostly in the south of the island. Many damaged buildings sat next to piles of rubble.

The declaration of emergency will facilitate federal financial aid for the US territory. Vázquez said she had been in contact with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema).

Several members of Congress, including Florida’s two US senators and Puerto Rico’s non-voting member of the House of Representatives, appealed to Donald Trump for aid.

Trump has been briefed on the earthquakes and administration officials were monitoring the impact in coordination with Puerto Rico officials, the White House deputy press secretary, Judd Deere, said in a statement.

The island has been rocked by a series of quakes – literally hundreds – since 28 December, including 10 of magnitude 4 or greater, the US Geological Survey said.
Store owners remove supplies from Ely Mer 

Mar hardware store, which partially collapsed 

after an earthquake struck Guanica, Puerto

 Rico, on Tuesday. Photograph: Carlos Giusti/AP

A 5.8-magnitude temblor on Monday damaged some homes on the southern coast.
Powerful quakes are rare in Puerto Rico, and Tuesday’s 6.4 was the strongest in more than a century, the island’s seismology office, Red Sísmica, said.

On 11 October 1918, a 7.3 magnitude quake and tsunami killed 116 people in Puerto Rico, according to Red Sísmica data.

The US territory is still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria in 2017, which killed about 3,000 people and destroyed a significant amount of infrastructure. The island suffered during Hurricane Irma around the same time, as the climate crisis continues to exacerbate such storms.

Puerto Rico is also working through a bankruptcy process to restructure about $120bn of debt and pension obligations.

“We are a resilient people. We have responded to many difficult situations. Now this has been asked of us one more time,” said Vázquez, who later toured damaged areas.

One of Tuesday’s quakes triggered an automatic shutdown of electricity across the island as a safety measure and a later, more powerful quake damaged power plants in the southern part of the island, Vázquez said.

Power remained cut off to the capital San Juan and most of the island some 11 hours after the largest quake.

Puerto Rico was producing only 40 megawatts of electricity when demand was close to 2,000 megawatts, Ángel Figueroa, president of the electricity workers’ union Utier, said on Twitter.

Some 300,000 of Puerto Rico’s 1.3 million water customers lacked service, Vázquez said. The governor confirmed one death, as reported by El Nuevo Día, that a 73-year-old man died after a wall fell on him.

 A man walks past a destroyed store after a 

6.4 earthquake hit on Tuesday in Guánica, 

Puerto Rico. Photograph: Eric Rojas/Getty Images

But she said it was too soon to offer an accurate assessment of damage or injuries.

Vázquez, who assumed office in August after Ricardo Rosselló stepped down in the face of massive street protests, repeated pleas for people to remain calm and asked people to check on neighbors, especially the elderly.

The biggest quake on Tuesday, of magnitude 6.4, struck at a depth of six miles at 4.24am, near Ponce in the south, the US Geological Survey said.

Witnesses using social media described it as “super strong” and lasting up to 30 seconds, followed by a number of hefty aftershocks.

The international airport near San Juan continued normal service with the help of power generators, El Nuevo Día reported, citing Jorge Hernández, chief executive of Aerostar Airport Holdings.

On Tuesday evening, US House speaker Nancy Pelosi was reported as urging the Trump administration to respond to Puerto Rico’s plea for emergency status and accompanying aid.

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Puerto Rico declares state of emergency after wide quake damage

Ricardo Arduengo,
AFP•January 7, 2020




1 / 4

Two firemen survey a collapsed building after an earthquake hit Guanica, one of the towns which appeared to suffer the worst damage on Puerto Rico's southwest coast
Two firemen survey a collapsed building after an earthquake hit Guanica, one of the towns which appeared to suffer the worst damage on Puerto Rico's southwest coast (AFP Photo/Ricardo ARDUENGO)

Guayanilla (Puerto Rico) (AFP) - Puerto Rico's governor declared a state of emergency on Tuesday after a powerful 6.4 magnitude earthquake killed at least one person in the south of the island and caused widespread damage.

Governor Wanda Vazquez said the declaration would allow for the activation of National Guard troops in the US territory still recovering from a devastating 2017 hurricane.

The US Geological Survey said the quake struck at 4:24 am (0824 GMT) with the epicenter off the coast of the southern city of Ponce, and was followed by more than a dozen aftershocks.

Tuesday's quake was the most powerful in a series of tremors that have shaken the island since December 28.

Scientists initially sent out an alert about a potential tsunami but it was later canceled.

The island's electricity authority said the quake had forced an automatic shutdown of the power grid, already severely damaged by Hurricane Maria more than two years ago.

The worst damage appeared to be in towns on the southwest coast, including Ponce, Guayanilla and Guanica.

El Nuevo Dia newspaper said a 73-year-old man died after a wall fell in his home in Ponce. Eight others there were reported injured.

Two power plants in Guayanilla sustained major damage, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority said. The city could be without power for two weeks, its mayor Nelson Torres Yordan said.

Celebrity chef Jose Andres announced that a charity he runs, World Central Kitchen, had started serving meals and distributing solar-powered lamps in quake-hit areas.

Vazquez announced that $130 million in emergency aid funding will be disbursed.

On social media, people wrote of being shaken awake by the force of the quake.

One woman on Twitter said she had been "wrenched from sleep."

"Everybody is awake & scared all over," she posted.

In Guayanilla, the Inmaculada Concepcion church, built in 1841, was heavily damaged.

Volunteers salvaged statues and other valuable items from the ruins as a priest consoled distraught parishioners.

- 'Be safe' -

A 5.8 magnitude quake on Monday toppled some structures, caused power outages and small landslides, but did not result in any casualties.

It also destroyed a popular tourist landmark, Punta Ventana, a natural stone arch that crumbled on the island's southern coast.

Vazquez, the governor, said government employees were being given the day off on Tuesday to take care of their families.

"We want everyone to be safe," she said.

She said ports were undamaged and there are several weeks' supply of gasoline, diesel and natural gas stored so people need not worry about shortages.

The White House said President Donald Trump had been briefed and Pete Gaynor, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), had been in touch with the governor.

Trump's administration came under severe criticism for its response to Hurricane Maria.

The Category 4 storm destroyed the island's already shaky power grid, overwhelmed public services, left many residents homeless and claimed several thousand lives, according to government estimates.

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