Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Taal volcano eruption could be a threat to millions and the global climate

Mario Picazo
Meteorologist, PhD

Monday, January 13th 2020

When a volcano the size of Taal erupts and later enters a more explosive mode, aerosols that are ejected into the atmosphere can reach altitudes of 15 to 20 kilometres.

The Taal volcano is one of a dozen large active volcanoes in the Philippines and has recently shown signs of how active it really is by spewing ash, water vapour and other gases high up into the atmosphere. The volcano is located only 60 kilometres from Manila, the country’s capital, so authorities have urged more than half a million people in the metro and surrounding areas to evacuate.

Also on the island of Luzon, and just south of where Taal is located, lies another historic volcano called Pinatubo. Back in June 1991, this volcano caused one of the most violent volcanic eruptions of the 20th century, killing hundreds and causing the global climate to change in several areas of the planet. Taal has not experienced the same explosiveness that Pinatubo had nearly three decades ago, but according to the Institute of Volcanology in the Philippines, the potential is there.

Due to this risk, scientists at the institute have been gradually increasing the alert level from 2 this weekend to now 4 out of a maximum of 5. This level is indicative of the potential for an explosive eruption to occur in the coming days, which could be similar to the Pinatubo eruption back in the 90s.

Mount Pinatubo eruption. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Eruptions of this magnitude often send cascading rivers of lava that can engulf entire villages and present different hazards based on their geographic location. Larger explosions that occur near a water body, such as the Taal volcano, are able to release clouds of ash that can travel hundreds of kilometres per hour downslope. The toxic gases from the eruption often mix within the cloud and carry the potential for landslides in the area they travel over.

When a volcano the size of Taal erupts and later enters a more explosive mode, a large portion of the solid material (aerosols) ejected into the atmosphere can reach altitudes of 15 to 20 kilometres. Once the solid and gas material reaches those heights, it can remain suspended in the air for months as it circulates the globe pushed by prevailing upper levels winds.



We will know more about the impact Taal could end up having on climate and the environment as the eruption process unfolds. If the eruption ends up being as explosive as that of Pinatubo, aerosols in the atmosphere could block about 10 per cent of the solar radiation that typically reaches Earth. This reduction of solar radiation results in a cooling effect, which can be more intense in some regions than others, depending on factors such as atmospheric circulation during and after the actual eruption.

A scenario of higher aerosol concentrations would cause global surface temperatures to drop considerably, which would impact crops and the main ecosystems in the region. For instance, during the Pinatubo eruption, average temperatures in the northern hemisphere dropped close to 0.6°C.

A temperature drop after the Mount Pinatubo explosion. Credit: NOAA

Simultaneously, temperatures in the stratosphere rose due to solar radiation absorption by the ash cloud. While levels of stratospheric ozone declined over time, sulphur dioxide that was ejected by the powerful eruption went through an oxidation process that eventually converted them into sulfuric acid droplets capable of affecting different ecosystems with acid rain.

Taal may or may not end-up fabricating a similar scenario to the one resulting from the explosions of Pinatubo or other major volcano eruptions like Krakatoa (1883), or el Chichón (1982), but time will say. In the meantime, the Philippines will need to remain alert as this region might have to adapt to a cooler temporary climate scenario if a major volcanic explosion does occur in the coming days.
---30---
Posted by at No comments:
Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs pose monumental challenge to $40-billion LNG project and the B.C. NDP government

(Warning: This commentary is longer than articles that normally appear on media websites.)


by Charlie Smith on January 12th, 2020 Georgia Straight

2 of 8
Chief Na'moks of the Tsayu Clan says that provincial and federal officials have assumed and presumed authority over Wet'suwet'en territory, even though this has never been ceded by anyone.UNIST'OT'EN CAMP

VIDEOS ARE AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE

Tensions continue to run high over the 670-kilometre Coastal GasLink pipeline project, which has been approved by the federal and B.C. governments, as well as by 20 elected First Nations councils along the route.

It's become a defining moment not only in the evolution of Indigenous rights, but in the future of B.C.'s NDP government and Canada's oil and gas industry.


That's because this pipeline is a key part of a $40-billion capital project that includes the huge LNG Canada plant near Kitimat.

Should this proceed, it will gobble up an increasingly large share of B.C.'s shrinking carbon budget in the years to come.

That will have a significant impact on businesses and people living across the province.

This is because they will be required to make even greater cuts to their emissions to meet B.C.'s legislated targets. (See chart below.)

Conversely, if Indigenous activists and their allies succeed in thwarting the $6.6-billion Coastal GasLink pipeline, it could give momentum to those trying to stop the even more costly $9.3-billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

TMX, as that project is often called, will have more downstream carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions per year than the entire province on an annual basis. That's to say nothing of the upstream emissions.
The LNG Canada plant near Kitimat will consume a far greater share of B.C.'s carbon budget in the coming decades.WEST COAST ENVIRONMENTAL LAW
Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs claim jurisdiction

The NDP government insists that it's going to meet its greenhouse gas emission targets even as it is offering about $6 billion in subsidies to the carbon-spewing LNG Canada project.

Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs, on the other hand, want to halt a crucial component, the Coastal GasLink pipeline. Without this, there would be no gas to liquefy for export.

And the hereditary chiefs have been supported by large demonstrations in many other communities across the country.
https://twitter.com/TorranceCoste/status/1216108980910444550

As for all those Indigneous approvals along the pipeline route, the hereditary chiefs say that the elected chiefs and councillors only have jurisdiction over reserves created under the Indian Act. According to the hereditary chiefs, the elected Indigenous governments do not oversee traditional unceded territory.

The hereditary chiefs are embarking on a landmark effort that is ultimately serving to diminish the authority of elected chiefs and councils in the eyes of the public and, possibly, eventually in the eyes of the courts.

On January 8, the hereditary chiefs met with RCMP Deputy Commissioner Jennifer Strachan, who was sworn in last June as the B.C. Mounties' commanding officer.

The RCMP has a large force on traditional Wet'suwet'en territory and is responsible for enforcing a B.C. Supreme Court injunction obtained by the company.

In late December, B.C. Supreme Court Justice Marguerite Church extended this injunction in a ruling rejected by Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs.

The hereditary chiefs say they've asked the RCMP to "stand down and refrain from enforcing the injunction order until nation-to-nation talks can occur with the provincial and federal governments to address infringements to Wet'suwet'en rights and title".

Presumably, these nation-to-nation talks would take place outside the normal framework of the elected chiefs and councils, who derive their authority through the Indian Act.

So, in a way, the hereditary chiefs are challenging the very structure that has guided discussions between governments and First Nations for decades.

For instance, the national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, Perry Bellegarde, is elected by the elected chiefs across the country.

In addition, the hereditary chiefs have asked the RCMP not to use any force or lethal weapons against the Wet'suwet'en people and to remove a remote RCMP detachment on traditional territory.

The hereditary chiefs also declare that the Wet'suwet'en people must not be forcibly removed or evicted from unceded territories and that the RCMP should stop preventing Wet'suwet'en people and their guests from having access to their territories.

"Currently, the RCMP has adviced local helicopter companies not to fly into Unist'ot'en territory, endangering the safety of Wet'suwet'en people and guests at the Gidimt'en Access Point and Unist'ot'en Village," the hereditary chiefs said in a statement on January 11.
Video: B.C. Human Rights Commissioner Kasari Govender explains the origins of her passion for human rights.
Human rights commissioner weighs in

The hereditary chiefs' statement was issued after the UN Committee for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination expressed its concern last month about the Coastal GasLink, Site C dam, and Trans Mountain pipeline projects proceeding "without the free, prior and informed consent of affected Indigenous peoples".

The UN committee called upon all these projects to be halted until this was done. And it also urged that Canada guarantee that no force will be used against the Wet'suwet'en, who are fighitng the Coastal GasLink project, and the Secwepemc, who are opposing the Trans Mountain project.

Indigenous issues are clearly important to B.C.'s new human rights commissioner, Kasari Govender.
On Friday (January 10), Govender issued a series of tweets supporting the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination's position.https://twitter.com/KasariGovender/status/1215723540726439936https://twitter.com/KasariGovender/status/1215723543410835457https://twitter.com/KasariGovender/status/1215723546011267072https://twitter.com/KasariGovender/status/1215723547416383488

Meanwhile, the Mounties have said that they're conducting a criminal investigation of safety hazards near where the Coastal GasLink pipeline is being built.

For its part, the company is trying to play up the role of Wet'suwet'en people who are working on the project. This conveys an impression that the pipeline has broad support among Indigenous people.

The tweet below is just one example.
https://twitter.com/CoastalGasLink/status/1215038580067844097

Earlier this week, the company issued 72 hours' notice for people to remove obstructions created by the pipeline's opponents.

This came not long after hereditary chiefs issued their own eviction notice to Coastal GasLink. The hereditary chiefs maintain that the company is violating Anuk nu'at'en (Wet'suwet'en law).

Today, the hereditary chiefs granted Coastal GasLink one-time access to shut down and winterize Camp 9A.
Video: Freda Huson issued an eviction notice to Coastal GasLink earlier this month.
Where things go from here

If the RCMP violently suppresses the Indigenous protests, it will cause an uproar around the world.

Demonstrations would likely occur outside Canadian embassies and derail Justin Trudeau's repeated efforts to portray himself as a progressive world leader and friend of Indigenous people.

The B.C. NDP, which is clinging to a minority government, could expect to come under intense criticism from its traditional supporters if the Mounties move in.

That's because Premier John Horgan is inextricably linked to the LNG Canada project, which the Coastal GasLink project will feed with natural gas.

There's a possibility that NDP MLAs might be tempted to leave the caucus and sit as independents if the pressure becomes too intense.

At the very least, a violent police action could easily lead to the defeat of the NDP government in the next provincial election.

This is not 1995, when a former NDP attorney general, Ujjal Dosanjh, played hardball with Indigenous traditionalists at Gustafsen Lake.

Back then, the Gustafsen Lake incident probably helped consolidate NDP support in constituencies in the south and north Cariboo, Kamloops, and Prince George, ensuring the party's narrow reelection in 1996.
Video: Indigenous cartoonist and historian Gord Hill offers his perspective on the significance of the Gustafsen Lake standoff in 1995.

That's to say nothing of the legal consequences that would flow from an RCMP crackdown on the Wet'suwet'en occurring in the wake of the legislature passing the B.C. Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.

But if the Mounties do nothing, that could spell the end of the LNG Canada plant. It's already a precarious investment.

LNG prices in Asia have remained relatively low, with estimates of just US$5.30 per million British thermal units in February and US$4.75 per million Btus in March, according to Reuters.

That's less than a third of what LNG prices in Asia were in the period following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. They actually peaked at US$17.20 per million Btus in June 2012 in Japan, where more than a third of LNG is burned.
Video: Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs explain why they believe they continue to have jurisdiction over 22,000 square kilometres of territory in north-central and northwestern B.C.UNIST'OT'EN CAMP

The current prices are hardly a bonanza for the LNG Canada investors: Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, and KOGAS.

TC Energy recently announced that it is going to sell 65 percent of its interest in the Coastal GasLink project to KKR and Alberta Investment Management Company, which oversees 31 funds.

The longer this project is delayed, the less likely it will come to fruition, particularly as renewable sources of energy continue to become more economically viable.

The stakes are high for all the players, including environmentalists worried about rising carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere.

The NDP government hopped into bed with the LNG industry when it offered subsidies to enable the $40-billion LNG project.

At the time, few anticipated that actions by Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs might end up killing the project. Even fewer might have considered that this could actually assist in the reelection of that very same NDP government.



Video: Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs explain why they believe they continue to have jurisdiction over 22,000 square kilometres of territory in north-central and northwestern B.C. UNIST'OT'EN CAMP Video: B.C. Human Rights Commissioner Kasari Govender explains the origins of her passion for human rights Video: Freda Huson issued an eviction notice to Coastal GasLink earlier this month.
Video: Indigenous cartoonist and historian Gord Hill offers his perspective on the significance of the Gustafsen Lake standoff in 1995.
Posted by at No comments:
Snowmaggedon: 12 people in Metro Vancouver who had terrible snow days

WE FEEL YOUR PAIN REALLY WE DO
WELCOME TO ALBERTA FOR A DAY OR TWO 


From pushing a 99 B-Line to your car catching on fire, here are 12 people who had a worse snow day than you.
POSTMEDIA NEWS  CLICK HERE TO SEE VIDEOS
Updated: January 14, 2020

If you thought you had a terrible time during Monday’s city-wide panic over snow, maybe this will make you feel a little better.

Snow began the evening of Jan. 12 and into the early morning hours of Jan. 13, for a total snowfall of about 6 inches to start the week. That’s on top of what was left of the 8.5 inches that fell on Jan. 10.

With more snow expected in the coming week, here are 12 people in Metro Vancouver who had a worse snow day than you.
This guy who decided to get out of his car while it was stuck spinning its back wheels.

There are multiple dangerous things happening in this video but if you find yourself in this scenario, with your car stuck in the snow and and you’ve decided to get out while the tires are still spinning, you’d better take a good look at your life and just stay home for the day.

The driver of this vehicle that definitely warmed up in the cold.

There’s many reasons why a vehicle might catch on fire in the cold but one of the most common reasons is due to a driver cranking the car with a low battery, which can overheat wires and create sparks that catch on flammable materials.

Don’t worry – the passerby who filmed the clip says in the comments that the driver was able to escape from the car safely.

This guy who towed himself out when he got stuck.

This driver was heading across the Burrard Street Bridge on Monday when he got stuck. Luckily, he was towing an all-terrain vehicle on a trailer, according to the Reddit poster who shared this video.

So why not just unload the ATV and tow yourself out of the jam? Problem solved.

Every single person who had to take the 99 B-Line on Monday morning.

While the B-Line frequently sees massive crowds, Monday morning saw line-ups at Commercial and Broadway wrapping around the corner. Thankfully, crowds respected TransLink’s designated queue lines and things mostly seemed to be in order.

This Jeep driver who slid and then got stuck on a median while attempting a three-point turn.

Just because you’re driving a larger vehicle doesn’t mean you’re snow-ready. Sure, you’ll have weight on your side but it’s tires that do the work. Be sure to get those snow tires on, my friends.

According to the Reddit user who posted this video, the driver slid, hit a sign and then attempted to execute a three-point turn before getting stuck on the median.

Anyone who had to walk under these ‘death-cicles’.

As if watching for black ice under feet wasn’t enough, you’ll now have to watch for deathly icicles hanging over head. These icicles are located at the Lonsdale Quay bus exchange in North Vancouver.

This UBC student who tried to get to campus on time.

There’s never been a better argument for a Broadway SkyTrain. Just take a look at this student’s log of their attempt to reach the Point Grey campus on Monday morning.

Final time count? Four hours.

These transit riders who ended up pushing a bus. A BUS!

No one wakes up and thinks they’re going to need to push a bus that day. But these transit riders all jumped in to help push a B-Line on Monday when it got stuck.

Was it altruism or just a desperate need to get home? We’ll never know.

Even snow plows have bad days.

This snow plow was attempting to maneuver a corner at Hastings and Commercial when things come to a bit of a standstill. You had one job…

This driver who almost ran over someone trying to drive up a hill.

Again, just because you have a larger vehicle or an SUV doesn’t necessarily mean you’re ready to tackle the snow. Get those snow tires on! We’ll say it louder for the people in the back, if need be.

Anyone riding this SkyTrain who suddenly saw sparks flying out from under the train.

While there’s no danger, it’s probably not what you want to see while riding the SkyTrain.

TransLink spokesperson Ben Murphy said the sparks are caused by ice buildup on the power rails, which can happen during weather like what we’ve seen this week, particularly during the early mornings. To prevent ice buildup, TransLink runs de-icing trains overnight but sparks are still possible if snow is heavy.

This guy who had probably the most crappy snow day in all of Metro Vancouver.

And finally, this guy who thought he’d make it home in time to defecate in the peace and comfort of his own home but sadly, had to opt for the confines of his car instead. Postmedia hasn’t been able to verify this story but – I’m not sure we want to, either.

Read on at your own risk.

TIFU by shitting in my car, in full view of 30+ cars, on the Port Mann Bridge.
So this was actually yesterday during the whole Snowmageddon fiasco...but here goes. I had just finished dinner with the girlfriend and my sister at a restaurant in Richmond, and for my Chinese Vancouverites there is one universal rule all of us know...and that is to never mix the hong kong iced lemon tea with the milk tea. I did just that. When we had just dropped off my sister in the Vancouver area, the snow had just begun, my dumbass decided to take a pass from using the washroom at her house as I thought I could make it back to Surrey in time to shit in comfort at home. How wrong I was.
The drive back passing through the Rupert hill on East 22nd intersection I saw at least 4 cars spun out, and at least 4 more coming down boundary towards the Grandview Hwy intersection. Regardless, the traffic was moving slow but it was at least moving...that is until we hit Port Mann Bridge going Eastbound at around 8:00pm, we must have moved 5 feet every 15 minutes, at one point I jokingly turned to my girlfriend and said "Babe, I might have to shit in my car."
By the time 9:00pm hit we were still not even ON the bridge yet, I seriously started considering that as a possibility. My options were a) Hop out and shit in the middle of the snow in full view of the hundreds of cars lined up behind us who were also at a standstill, b) shit in my pants or c) shit in the convenient T&T plastic bag in I had in my car.
I tried guys, I really did. I turned over to my girlfriend and simply said "Babe this is happening, I need you to take over the wheel." I'll never forget the look on her face...panic, disbelief, the whole 9 yards. So she took over, I grabbed the bag, got my sweatpants down to the ankle of my pants, and said "Oh god, i'm going babe". Of course at this time, it was conveniently the time we hit the chokepoint causing all the traffic, and pass it, unfortunately it's also here where she begins sliding accross the Port Mann bridge. So now we have a grown ass man, with his fucking pants at his ankles shitting into a plastic bag in the back of a car, and his girlfriend in tears screaming at the top of her lungs telling me to sit the fuck down and that she doesn't care if I get shit on my ass - all in full view of god knows how many cars on that bridge last night including a police cruiser. I just hope the tint on my rear windows was enough to conceal the horror of what was going on back there.
So yeah, that was my shitty Sunday. At least I now have a poop story to tell. Thanks for reading my story.




Jokes aside, be safe out there, use snow tires and stay warm!


LIFE

10 citizens’ reports on social media that make painfully clear Vancouver does not know how to handle snow

by Travis Lupick on January 13th, 2020 at 9:28 AM


The Canadian west coast is pretty smug about its weather.


What’s that, you say? It’s only October and it’s already snowing in Calgary? Oh, it’s April and yet there is still ice on the streets of Montreal? Over here in sunny Vancouver, we’re heading out for a walk along the Sea Wall and then might stop for a beer on the patio.
Until it snows. When rain turns to snow and ice in southern B.C., we have no clue how to handle it.
We’re reminded of this sad fact every year couple of years when an inch or two of the white stuff snarls traffic and grinds life to a half across the entire region of Metro Vancouver.
Today (January 13) citizens from West Vancouver to Maple Ridge who have bravely ventured outdoors are sharing photographs of their adventures on social media.
Meanwhile,  Drive B.C. has asked motorists to avoid all unnecessary travel and Environment Canada is warning that there is likely still more snow on the way.
NEWS

People were skiing down streets in East Vancouver on Sunday night (VIDEO)

DH Vancouver Staff
DH Vancouver Staff
|
Jan 13 2020, 1:03 pm

While the heavy snow on Sunday night caused more than a few 
headaches for people throughout the Lower Mainland, some 
residents in East Vancouver decided to make the best of the 
situation.Although many people made their way to the local 
mountains, it appears this particular group was more than 
satisfied to save themselves the trip and simply carve up the
 fresh snow that had fallen on their neighbourhood streets.


See also
Several Lower Mainland public schools declare snow day
Metro Vancouver drivers advised to stay off roads due to snowy conditions 
This is how bad Metro Vancouver roads were last night (VIDEOS)

In one of the videos, a person can be seen skiing from the road, onto a sidewalk, 
and then onto a property.“We now have ski-in, ski-out housing,” the video’s description reads.
Another video shows a person making turns down a snow-covered alleyway and across a street.
With a huge blast of snow on Sunday and an arctic front moving into the region
 today, many commuters are being warned to exercise caution amidst difficult 
winter conditions and prepare for freezing conditions that are forecast to settle
 in today. And although a high of -4°C and sunshine is predicted, it will feel as cold 
as -13°C with the windchill today, according to Environment Canada.
Hey, maybe a pair of skis is actually the way to go.
Posted by at No comments:
Pope ends a secrecy rule for Catholic sexual abuse cases, but for victims many barriers to justice remain

January 13, 2020

Pope Francis recently removed a secrecy rule to increase transparency
 for sexual abuse cases. AP Photo/Andrew Medichini

 Pope Francis recently removed one of the barriers facing sex abuse victims looking for justice – the “Rule of Pontifical Secrecy.”

 The rule is an obligation under the church’s laws to keep sensitive information regarding the Catholic Church’s governance strictly confidential. This rule allowed church officials to withhold information in sexual abuse cases, even where there was an alleged cover-up or a failure to report allegations. The clergy could claim secrecy even from victims or legal authorities.

 Pope Francis stated on Dec. 17, 2019, in a press release “On the Topic of Confidentiality in Legal Proceedings,” that his intention in ending papal secrecy was to increase transparency in child abuse cases.

 As a legal scholar, I have extensively analyzed the use of evidence rules that shield confidential communications with clergy. I argue that even with the removal of the papal secrecy rule, transparency might remain illusive for abuse victims.

 The Catholic Church has other practices it can rely on to conceal information.
Papal secrecy rule

 The Rule of Pontifical Secrecy is part of the church’s canon laws – ordinances that regulate the church and its members. It traces its roots to the twelfth century, when the church set up the institution of Inquisition for punishing heresy. This quest was rooted in secrecy and led to the torture and execution of thousands of people throughout Europe and the Americas.

 The rule is the church’s highest level of secrecy. Historically, it applied primarily to issues of church governance. This includes drafts of canon law, papal conclaves and also internal church investigations of misconduct by clergy.

 The rule is intended, in part, to protect the names of accusers and the accused in church-related disputes until there had been some clear finding of wrongdoing. The penalty for disclosing information can include excommunication.
Rule hindered justice

 In application, though, the rule of secrecy has hindered efforts by child abuse victims to seek justice against the church.

 It became a way for church officials to avoid reporting allegations of abuse to law officials. Officials also relied on the rule to refuse to cooperate with legal authorities investigating allegations of wrongdoing.

 Critics also feared the rule hindered victims from coming forward. For those who did come forward, the rule made it more difficult to obtain information pertinent to any subsequent litigation.

 When the pope issued the instruction to remove the rule from the canon law in December, his decision lifted only the veil of pontifical secrecy from three categories of cases: sexual abuse of minors or vulnerable persons; failure to report or efforts to cover up such abuse; and possession of pornography by a cleric.

 All other matters previously covered by this rule, such as diplomatic correspondences and personal issues, remain subject to papal secrecy.
Other confidential communication

 However, Catholic sexual abuse victims face other barriers to seeking justice.

 Victims often seek information regarding what church officials knew about particular instances of abuse, including whether other victims made similar accusations against a particular cleric or details of any internal church investigation. Lifting the rule of pontifical secrecy does not clarify church official’s obligations to comply with such requests.

 Further, as my research shows, the pontifical secret is only one avenue for shielding information about wrongdoing in the church.

 The seal of confession prevents priests from sharing information received during confession at risk of excommunication. This has included information that victims of abuse have sought to build their cases.

 The privilege has also been asserted as a workaround to mandatory reporting obligations for clergy.

 Additionally, every state in the United States recognizes clergy privilege – a legal rule that shields clergy from forced disclosure of confidential spiritual communication. This protection applies not only to confessions but also to conversations in which clergy provide solace, comfort or aid.

 In practice, clergy privilege means priests can refuse to testify, at any stage of litigation, regarding protected conversations. Yet in these conversations, abusers may well admit to harming children.
Inconsistent privilege assertions

 Religious institutions have been inconsistent in their assertion of the clergy privilege.

 In some instances, clerics willingly forgo the privilege. For example, in the 2014 Tennessee state case, State v. Cartmell, a chaplain testified about a conversation in which the defendant disclosed details about a murder. The defendant asserted the communication was privileged, but the chaplain maintained he could testify.

 The chaplain acknowledged he was with the defendant in his religious capacity but framed the conversations not as being spiritual. He claimed it was a means to assist the defendant “make peace” with what happened.

 In other cases, clergy have asserted the privilege to shield confidential communications in alleged child abuse cases. In Commonwealth v. Cane, a 1983 decision from the Supreme Court of Massachusetts, a Roman Catholic priest withheld evidence in a murder and child abuse case. The defendant waived any privilege over his conversation with the priest. Nonetheless, the priest refused to testify.

 Despite the pope’s efforts, the transparency the Catholic Church seeks will take far more chipping away at the remaining obstacles to justice.



 Author
 
Christine P. Bartholomew
Associate Professor of Law, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
Disclosure statement
Christine P. Bartholomew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Partners
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.
Posted by at No comments:
The long history and current consequences of the Iranian-American conflict
January 13, 2020 


Protesters chant slogans and hold up posters of Qassem Soleimani
 during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran on
 Jan. 12, 2020. AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi

Understanding historical cause and effect can be difficult and contentious. The downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight PS752 is a prime example.

While there’s now no question about the Iranian regime’s responsibility for attack, the broader blame game is ongoing. Indeed, it is integral to Tehran’s defence in the face of international condemnation and increasing domestic unrest.

Historians trace the state of Iranian-American relations to 1953, when the Central Intelligence Agency orchestrated a coup against Mohammed Mossadegh and installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as a puppet ruler for 25 years. 
In this September 1951 photo, Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh rides on the shoulders of cheering crowds outside Tehran’s parliament building after reiterating his oil nationalization views to his supporters. The U.S. overthrew his government two years later. AP Photo, File

The 1978 Iranian Revolution ensued, ultimately producing the authoritarian theocracy in power today. Iran’s brutal war from 1980 to 1988 with neighbouring Iraq, then an American ally, helped to entrench the Islamist regime and fuelled further enmity with the U.S.

So too has constant American support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Iran’s wide-ranging “proxy wars” in the Middle East through militias and terrorist organizations.

More recently, the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq provided a lightning rod for conflict. It simultaneously threatened Iran with perceived regime change while creating the conditions for the country’s expanded influence in the region through control of disaffected Shia. The subsequent civil war in Syria, the rise of the Islamic State (IS) and the ongoing conflict in Yemen furthered opportunities for Tehran to project its power.
Support for reformists

To be sure, there have been glimmers of hope for a better relationship over the years.

The so-called Green Movement in Iran in 2009 signalled that not all was well with the fundamentalist regime. Support for reformists since the late 1990s, while intermittent, also points to a more diverse, progressive society in Iran than is often imagined.

On the international stage, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (better known as the Iran nuclear deal) provided at least an initial framework for dialogue, however debatable its effectiveness. But that process ended with the withdrawal from the protocol in 2018 by Donald Trump’s administration.

The more recent decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, major general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and commander of the Quds Force — and one of the most important officials in the Iranian government — was an even more obvious hard turn away from any diplomacy with Tehran.

Soleimani’s murder necessitated a response from Iran.

After many threats, that response was Iranian missile attacks on American military bases in Iraq. It was an expected and relatively restrained response from a regime cornered between appearing tough in the face of American aggression and running the risk of a major military escalation with the U.S. that could conceivably imperil its very existence.

Read more: Iran vows revenge for Soleimani's killing, but here's why it won't seek direct confrontation with the US

It is of course too early to know if that’s the extent of Tehran’s response. Soleimani’s death is a major blow to Iranian operations in Iraq and Syria, where he served as the political and military point-man. At the head of the Quds Force, he ran myriad clandestine operations through proxies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan. The U.S. ranked him as one of the most important terrorists in the world.
Soleimani a national hero

Soleimani’s assassination was taken as a clear, personal attack on the regime and particularly Iran’s theocracy. 
In this picture released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to a group of residents of the city of Qom, in Iran on Jan. 8, 2020. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Quite separate from the Iranian military, the IRGC answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Historically, the IRGC has also been a kind of barometer of the regime’s integrity with the Iranian populace.

Initially the vanguard of the revolution, the IRGC came to epitomize the oppressive nature of clerical rule and had lost much of its support among Iranians.

Soleimani was key to its rehabilitation, especially in the face of what many saw as American military adventurism in the Middle East.

His status as a national hero was premised largely on the notion that the IRGC was, once again, defending Iranian sovereignty: challenging the U.S. and its allies throughout the region. In many respects he had tapped into an even deeper sense of Persian nationalism — he represented the legitimate regional aspirations of an ancient and proud people, long besieged by enemies on all fronts. He was, to some degree, a symbol of unity in a fractured state.

It is dangerous to leap from Soleimani’s death to the downing of Flight PS752, or to ultimately blame Washington as Iran now seeks to do. But cause and effect still cast their shadows.
Iran feared further escalation

Clearly Iranian authorities feared military escalation from the U.S. after their reprisal for the assassination. And clearly their fears were exacerbated by incompetency evident now on multiple levels, particularly the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority for not closing airspace over Tehran.

Read more: Flight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran's recklessness and incompetence

Most problematic for the regime is that the IRGC — the only unit with the Russian-made Tor system in question — ultimately bears responsibility for launching the missiles. Admitting to the attack, especially after a series of vigorous denials, has humiliated the regime.

Evidenced by anti-government protests in Iran soon after its admission, it’s also exposed the leadership to precisely what it fears most: the domestic opposition it has been battling for years.

Often overlooked by Westerners in this calculation is the 1988 Iranian Airlines Flight 655 incident, when missiles from the USS Vincennes were mistakenly launched at the civilian jet, killing all on board.

That event became a central pillar of the clerics’ attempts to carve a collective Iranian identity built principally on vehement anti-Americanism, and to consequently legitimize their own control.
 
In this July 1988 file photo, a funeral procession is held for six Pakistani and Indian nationals who were killed aboard Iran Air Flight 655. AP Photo

Commemorated in speeches, educational curriculums, even postage stamps, Flight 655 reinforced notions that Iran was perpetually under attack. Indeed, just a couple of days before the attack on Ukrainian International Airlines, tweets from senior Iranian officials reminded followers about Flight 655.

Now, with Flight PS752, Iran was the attacker. Hypocrisies were revealed, and opportunities to exploit both domestic and international support in the face of American actions were lost.
Justification changes

So what about the United States? As Trump so quickly pointed out, the “mistake” most definitely came “from the other side.” But his decisions still loom large in a fair discussion of cause and effect.

There are serious questions about what went into the decision to kill Soleimani. Parallels to Osama bin Laden are inevitable, but neither the context nor the consequences are analogous.

Attacks on Iranian interests have the potential of far greater, and faster, escalation than any involving al-Qaida or other terrorist organizations. And the initial rationale — that Soleimani was planning an “imminent attack” on U.S. interests — has changed. Instead, Trump argued, the hit was for past actions.

That’s a very different calculation, especially in the eyes of public opinion.

Even if the assassination is still considered legitimate, questions about possible consequences seem to have been ignored. Soleimani’s status as a national hero doesn’t seem to have registered. A sophisticated understanding of the Iranian regime and its need to respond to any attack on its interests also seems to have been lacking. 
Demonstrators protest outside of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 9, 2020. 
AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Historical calculations were probably never even entertained in calculating what might happen after the hit. In an administration notorious for its revolving door of senior officials and advisers, whose expertise was instrumental in making a decision of that magnitude? Was any sought at all?

Regardless of any moral and ethical considerations, the assassination of Soleimani constitutes a dramatic escalation in a region already dangerously volatile, and it was arguably disproportionate to the threat he posed.
Stephen Harper cut diplomatic ties

Questions about cause and effect don’t spare Canada, either. The 2012 decision by the government of Stephen Harper to cut diplomatic ties with Iran now significantly complicates Ottawa’s efforts to take part in the investigation of Flight PS752 and to best represent Canadian victims.

Read more: Canada's non-diplomacy puts Canadians at risk in an unstable Middle East

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s demands for a full, open, international investigation into the incident are helped by Iran’s belated admissions, but he cannot expect the regime to fully comply in straightforward fashion. A significant improvement in Iranian-Canadian relations remains a distant dream.

Perhaps even more important is the disturbing fact that Ottawa was left in the dark about Trump’s Soleimani intentions. Especially with allies so close, it is customary — and necessary — to consult in matters of national security. 
Members of the Iranian community break down during a 
memorial for the victims of the Ukrainian plane disaster
in Iran in Edmonton on Jan. 12, 2020. 
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol

Canadians, both soldiers and civilians, who were potentially in danger in the region could have been warned if Ottawa had been informed. It also raises serious questions about the current state of the Canada-U.S. relationship.

Trump’s personal dislike of Trudeau, and evident disregard for Canada, is obvious. Less clear is how the historically high degree of communication and integration between the two countries has changed under Trump’s watch.

Asked directly about whether he thought the U.S. bore some responsibility for the downing of PS752, Trudeau said: “I think it is too soon to be drawing conclusions or assigning blame or responsibility in whatever proportions.”

It was a quiet but obvious suggestion that the Trump administration was not above reproach in a great tragedy with significant international consequences.


Author
 
Arne Kislenko

Associate Professor of History, Ryerson University
Disclosure statement

Arne Kislenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Partners



Ryerson University provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation CA.


Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)