Sunday, December 14, 2025

BALKAN BLOG: Croatia’s left-right divide deepens

BALKAN BLOG: Croatia’s left-right divide deepens
Thousands of people joined marches in Zagreb and other Croatian cities on November 30. / Mozemo via Facebook
By Clare Nuttall in Glasgow December 7, 2025

The largest anti-fascist demonstrations Croatia has seen in years have highlighted a widening rift between the country’s political left and right, as disputes over the wartime legacy of the Ustasha regime intensify. 

Thousands of people marched through central Zagreb on November 30, rallying against what organisers described as an emboldened far-right fringe and the state’s failure to curb nationalist symbolism. Sister protests were held in Rijeka, Pula and Zadar along the Adriatic coast.

Protesters carried banners reading “United Against Fascism” and chanted wartime partisans’ slogans, according to local media reports, as they called for a tougher response to a string of recent incidents — from intimidation at cultural events for the Serb minority to vandalism of memorials marking victims of the Ustasha regime, which ruled Croatia under Nazi auspices during World War Two.

Controversial salute 

The demonstrations followed a series of attacks earlier in the month, in which masked groups used the salute “Za dom spremni” (“For the homeland – ready”), a slogan linked to the Ustasha, to disrupt Serbian cultural events in Split, Zagreb and Rijeka. Police intervened in several cases, but rights groups say the incidents mark an escalation in both organisation and brazenness.

Although Croatia joined the European Union in 2013, rights monitors have warned for years about ambiguous messaging from officials regarding the country’s wartime past. The Council of Europe’s Anti-Racism Commission has repeatedly criticised what it describes as a “glorification” of Ustasha symbols and narratives.

The debate resurfaced forcefully in July when nationalist singer Marko Perković Thompson drew an estimated half-million fans at Zagreb’s Hippodrome, the largest public gathering in Croatia’s post-independence history. Media footage showed sections of the crowd giving the “Za dom spremni” salute. While the chant is illegal under Croatian law, courts have ruled Thompson may use it in a song referencing the 1991-95 independence war.

Human rights groups accused authorities of failing to condemn the displays, arguing the silence created the impression that the salute was tolerated. Opposition parties said the government had missed a rare chance to draw a clear line between remembrance of the 1990s conflict and historical revisionism.

Interior Minister Davor Božinović praised the security arrangements at the July concert but rejected claims the government was turning a blind eye. He also turned on critics, claiming they “labelled half a million Croatian citizens overnight”.

Political tensions harden

Since May 2024, the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has governed in coalition with the nationalist Homeland Movement, which opposes immigration and LGBT rights and has advocated restricting abortion.

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has repeatedly dismissed accusations that his party enables extremism, saying such claims are exaggerated. But his government has been forced into a series of awkward public interventions as far-right rhetoric bleeds into official ceremonies.

In July this year, Plenković criticised the mayor of Dubrovnik, an HDZ member, for ending a speech at a veterans’ memorial with the “Za dom spremni” salute, calling the gesture unacceptable and not reflective of party policy.

However, when Zagreb Mayor Tomislav Tomašević, a prominent green-left politician, warned in October that Thompson could be barred from performing in city-owned venues if he used the salute during a December concert. Plenković denounced the threat as “a bad joke” and politically motivated. The dispute further polarised the political landscape, with left-leaning parties accusing the prime minister of appeasing nationalist sentiment.

Serb minority fears rising hostility

Relations between Croats and the country’s Serb minority remain shaped by the 1991-95 war, when Serb forces sought to prevent Croatia’s independence. Although minority rights were a central condition of Croatia’s EU accession, anti-Serb sentiment has periodically flared.

In November, masked groups disrupted the Days of Serbian Culture in Split, targeted an exhibition in Zagreb, and attempted to break up a karate tournament in Rijeka involving a Serbian team. The glass frontage of an ethnic Serb community office in Split was smashed, and earlier in the year memorial plaques to wartime victims were defaced.

Serb community leaders say the pattern suggests a coordinated campaign of intimidation. Police have condemned the incidents, with Božinović saying officers “act quickly and professionally” to protect citizens “regardless of who is protesting and against whom”.

The latest protests reflect not only frustration with extremist incidents but also a broader struggle over how Croatia defines itself three decades after its war of independence.

The visibility of nationalist messages at major public events — and the reluctance of senior officials to condemn them unequivocally — has fuelled a perception that fringe ideas are moving closer to the mainstream. Meanwhile, the left-leaning opposition, fragmented in recent years, has seized on the issue as a rallying point.

The November 30 protests, which drew a broad coalition of civil society groups, may signal a more assertive pushback from Croatia’s anti-fascist and liberal constituencies. This is only likely to intensify the political divide, with the governing coalition dependent on nationalist partners and the wartime past still politically potent.

Iraq hit by flash floods, two dead reported in Sulaimaniyah

Iraq hit by flash floods, two dead reported in Sulaimaniyah
Iraqi floods hit after historic drought. / bne IntelliNews
By bna Cairo bureau December 9, 2025

Heavy rains triggered flash floods across several parts of Iraq on December 9, cutting key roads, inundating homes and causing multiple fatalities, Al Arabiya News reported.

The latest storm is one of several to hit the country this season. It shows Iraq’s growing vulnerability to extreme and unpredictable weather patterns, with authorities warning that infrastructure across many provinces is ill-equipped to cope with sudden surges in rainfall.

Regional media reported the collapse of several buildings and schools in the Jamjamal district after torrential rain swept through the area. Authorities in the Kurdistan Region confirmed that at least two people died in Sulaimaniyah, with additional damage reported across nearby towns.

In the Shorash subdistrict, local official Hawta Aziz said a 70-year-old man was killed when a wall at his home collapsed under the pressure of the floodwaters. The Sulaimaniyah Joint Coordination Centre urged.

The water came in extremely fast; families had only a few seconds to move to safety,” Aziz said, warning that further structural damage may still be uncovered as assessments continue.

The Sulaimaniyah Joint Coordination Centre urged residents to contact emergency numbers in the event of further incidents and said rescue teams remain on alert.

Flooding also disrupted major transport routes. Sections of the Kirkuk–Baghdad, Tuz Khurmatu and Daquq roads were cut, while part of the Baghdad–Mosul highway near the village of Makhoul in Salah al-Din province was submerged, severely affecting traffic and slowing the delivery of goods.

An official from the Salah al-Din civil defence department told local outlets: “These highways are lifelines. When they go underwater, entire supply routes are thrown off.”

In Erbil, the heavy rainfall revived the normally dry Khalee Ali Beg waterfall, which began flowing again after a prolonged drought a striking reminder of the extreme swings between water scarcity and sudden flooding that have characterised Iraq’s recent climate patterns.

Iraq’s meteorological authority warned that unstable weather patterns are expected to continue in the coming days, bringing variable conditions and the possibility of light rainfall in scattered areas.

The UN has repeatedly warned that Iraq is among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, facing a combination of drought, extreme heat and intensified flooding.

INSTANBUL BLOG: Turkish journalist suggests Jailmatic AI system to cut costs of trying and jailing government opponents

ISTANBUL BLOG: Turkish journalist suggests Jailmatic AI system to cut costs of trying and jailing government opponents
"Next!" bianet illustration of groundbreaking system that would run along the lines of a bank branch queuematic "get in line" service. / bianet
By Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 11, 2025

Turkey’s government should introduce an artificial intelligence-based “Jailmatic” system to automatically imprison opponents rather than squander billions paying for judicial procedures, local journalist Ozgur Erbas (@zgrerbas) wrote on December 6.

Erbas introduces her proposal in an op-ed written for bianet. It sends the message, “No more anxiety! Jailmatic would solve this problem.”

If every opponent of the government in Turkey is going to end up in prison anyway, then let AI assign them their prison queue number, Erbas suggests.

Jailmatic, or yatarmatik as it is in Turkish, would run along the same lines as the queuematic systems used in bank branches.

Erbas also proposes some advertising blurb: “With jailmatic, you can choose your time of the year, prison and instalment plan yourself.”

Dragging the people along

Where does Erbas get her enthusiasm from?

“In our country, as you know, the branches of government don't like to be separated,” Erbas also writes, adding: “They want to be united, to be together, to be powerful.

“This dynamic seen in the branches of government drags individuals along with it. For example, when I see a car parked in the middle of a pedestrian crossing, I immediately start telling myself: ‘When I become president of the republic...’”

Nail that post

Erbas reflects that she has her heart set on obtaining a post, status, and has things she’ll accomplish if she sits in that post.

As an experienced Turkish civilian, she knows what she has been taught: she needs to nail that post, position and status are necessary. “The bushes whisper to me, ‘Grab that seat, and you'll get what you want.’”

Dear judge, dear prosecutor you would still read files, make decisions

But back to the benefits of Jailmatic. “Why,” asks Erbas, “would someone want to become a judge or a prosecutor? To sit on a bench, wear a robe, read files and make decisions? Well, if so, there's no problem, you'll still do exactly this according to my proposal.

“Unless you're one of those who, like in Aristophanes' play The Wasps, go mad saying, ‘I can't stop judging, I can't live without seeing the defendants beg and cry,’ then you’ll just do your job. Of course, it’s known that your job includes elements like ensuring justice and the rule of law, things that aren't always clearly understood by everyone. But you’ll still do your job well, you’ll get your salary without a hitch, and that's it. If anyone asks, you say, ‘I did my job, I applied what the law says.’"

Shaky ground, shifting coalitions

Besides, how to manoeuvre in the job would remain a challenge. You can’t forget the people you haven't greeted in a while, says Erbas. You might need to drop by their office for tea. And there are those who never leave their offices. Some of those, well, you might need to cut them dead.

“If you can't figure all this out instantly and just jump through the hoops, you'll descend the courthouse steps faster than you climbed up. In short, these are difficult tasks; not just anyone can handle them,” advises Erbas.

The lawyers? Their problems are countless

In the system as it stands, there is also, of course, the lawyers. Their problems are countless. Some wanted to become judges or prosecutors, but weren't permitted to do so. It’s gotten to the point where, on joining the student association at law school, you can inwardly bid farewell to the robes of judges and prosecutors. But, adds Erbas, because you studied law, you still believe such discrimination shouldn’t have happened. Ultimately, it's hard to concede to yourself that the education you received, the diploma you obtained, aren’t very useful. But at least you can still recite to yourself, “There can be no trial without defence.” Right?

Pliers and wires

In Turkey, according to the journalist, a campaign to suspend the Constitution has begun. The judiciary has become politicised, reduced to a toolbox of pliers and wires. But those cases. They keep on coming. They are countless. The spending is immense. The strain on the budgets of the justice and interior ministries is hardly bearable. “I wanted to contribute to the solution,” says Erbas.

And the solution is Jailmatic

If every opponent of the government is set to one day eat toast in a prison canteen, then let's design a system where people enter their ID number, choose three prisons near their home, select their preferred time of the year for imprisonment and simply press a button, she proposes.

The system would upload everything, including the person’s social media activity and inactivity, intelligence on their behaviour, baseless accusations, what neighbours and colleagues are saying about them and anything else you can think of. It would go straight into an AI “mind”, which would determine the prison term.

It's green, moreover!

Think about it. Police officers would no longer have to raid addresses in the early hours. All the costs, including motor fuel, winter tyres, vehicle insurance, the officer's allowance and so on, would be avoided.

Moreover, the costs generated by the detention, medical checks, transfers, prison meals... All of this would fall away.

Enormous legal expenses, endless hearings, the paperwork, files, witness fees, expert witness fees… Everything you can think of, that would all vanish too.

The system would inform you of the duration of the intended incarceraton, which prison is available for the desired period and your entry and exit dates. It would provide you with your queue number and a confirmation code. It could all be sent to your mobile phone. And that would be it.

Only the judiciary?

Erbas’ proposal is limited to the judicial system. However, looking at the current political settings of the country, there are many unnecessary institutions that produce carbon emissions.

The parliament, opposition parties and a vast number of media institutions that publish or broadcast identical stories. These three for a start could be listed as leading candidates. Their absence would make no difference to anything,

Let’s widen this green transformation. Cut more emissions, shrink more budget deficits. All in all, what we have here is a formidable proposal.

Iran deploys military aircraft for cloud seeding operations across drought-hit regions

Iran deploys military aircraft for cloud seeding operations across drought-hit regions
Iran deploys military aircraft for cloud seeding operations across drought-hit regions / bne IntelliNews
By bnm Tehran bureau December 10, 2025

Iran has deployed military aircraft for eight cloud seeding missions over 48 hours, Defrapress reported on December 10.

The rain-making programme targeted Lake Urmia and drought-prone central provinces in an escalating effort to combat the country's worsening water crisis, which has seen dams across the country run dry in recent months.

Cloud seeding is a form of weather modification where tiny particles are added to existing clouds to encourage more rain or snow to fall.

Iranian military planes conducted three flights on December 10, concentrating firepower on Lake Urmia basin in the northwest, which has lost roughly 90% of its water volume since the 1990s.

Two missions focused exclusively on Urmia, whilst a third swept across Tehran, Alborz, Zanjan and Qazvin provinces.

Additional sorties targeted Yazd province, extending precipitation efforts into Iran's central desert belt.

The operations mark the latest chapter in Tehran's aggressive pursuit of weather modification technology as the Islamic Republic grapples with mounting water scarcity.

Iran has experienced decades of drought exacerbated by dam construction, agricultural mismanagement and climate change, leaving major water bodies, including Lake Urmia, on the brink of ecological collapse.

Hamed Tabatabaei, engineer and head of the cold cloud seeding team, said forecasting teams identify priority areas one to two days ahead, with operations leaders communicating directly with pilots to determine routes, altitudes and timing for silver iodide discharges based on real-time sensor data inside clouds, according to Tabnak.

Unlike conventional high-altitude flights, cold cloud seeding requires pilots to penetrate cloud formations and navigate in near-zero visibility conditions.

Cloud seeding offers only marginal gains and cannot substitute for comprehensive water policy reform.

Iran has conducted cloud seeding programmes for years with mixed results, though officials rarely publish independent assessments of effectiveness.

The cloud-seeding programme comes as Tehran's reservoirs hold just 3% of capacity excluding Taleghan dam, with rainfall 97% below long-term averages in the worst drought on record, the head of Tehran's water and sewage company said on December 5.

The region should have received at least 75mm of rain by this point but has recorded only 3-4mm, compared with 43mm in the same period last year.

 

Slovak President Pellegrini says he won’t sign legislation dismantling Whistleblowers Protection Office

Slovak President Pellegrini says he won’t sign legislation dismantling Whistleblowers Protection Office
Opposition leader Igor Matovič scuffles with ruling party MPs during heated parliament session. / Igor Matovič via Facebook
By Albin Sybera in Prague December 12, 2025

Slovak President Peter Pellegrini has refused to sign legislation dismantling the Whistleblowers Protection Office (ÚOO), which the ruling left-right coalition led by populist Prime Minister Robert Fico passed in the parliament earlier this week.

Pellegrini made the statement in a video message uploaded to his Facebook social media profile after the ruling coalition broke Pellegrini’s swift veto of the legislation and after a turbulent December 11 session at the parliament, which included a scuffle between some of the ruling coalition and opposition MPs, daily DennikN reported.

"I am determined not to sign the legislation dismantling the ÚOO not even after the breaking of the veto for the reasons which persist," Pellegrini said.  

The country’s president, whose presidential campaign last year was backed by Fico’s ruling coalition, vetoed the legislation citing the EU’s objections to the dismantling of the Whistleblowers Protection Office as well as the shortened legislative procedure under which the move was passed, and for which there was no objective reason.  

Pellegrini, who is often viewed by the country's liberal media and opposition as Fico's ally, also stated his decision is to be "guided by legal and democratic principles and the building of such reputation of Slovakia, which will be respected by partners at international institutions."

Fico slammed Pellegrini for his decision not to sign the legislation and stated this his Smer party would review its support for Pellegrini "in the next elections." Pellegrini's critics pointed out that the swift veto and its immediate override could, in fact, rush in the dismantling of ÚOO. 

Pellegrini opened the video by stating that “I sharply condemn the way parliament approached the discussion of the amendment to the criminal code as well as the presidential veto regarding the dismantling of the Whistle-blowers Protection Office.”

Pellegrini was referring to the unrest at the parliamentary premises, caused by the narrow passing of the amendments to the criminal code, which includes controversial measures such as restricting collaboration with cooperating defendants, and introducing criminal offences such as defying World War II peace outcomes, or the “sabotaging of political campaigns”, which watchdogs fear could target journalists and online influencers.

Demonstrators marched through the streets of the capital Bratislava on December 11 protesting against the criminal code amendments, seen by critics as safeguarding officials from Fico’s Smer party against criminal investigations and as giving Fico’s coalition a tool to harass its critics.

The passing of the amendments was met with loud protests inside the parliament as well, including whistling from the opposition ranks. 

Ruling coalition MP Erik Vlček (Hlas) threw an empty plastic bottle at populist leader Igor Matovič after Matovič recorded the unrest on his mobile phone, and placed a poster by the seat of Smer legislator Tibor Gašpar stating that “the accused Gašpar is voting for his amnesty”.

Gašpar faces criminal investigation over his ties to a criminal ring which is also alleged to involve Gašpar’s relative, the Nitra-based oligarch Norbert Bodor.

Daily SME reported, referring to a respected lawyer Peter Kubina, that the restrictions on collaboration with cooperating defendants passed by the parliament will affect all the criminal cases in the country in which any cooperating defendant testified, including the investigation into the 2018 murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancee Martina Kušnírová, which sparked mass demonstrations that forced Fico’s previous cabinet from power.

 

BOOKS: Uzbekistan’s reforms meet old habits of control

BOOKS: Uzbekistan’s reforms meet old habits of control
/ bne IntelliNews
By Clare Nuttall in Glasgow December 14, 2025

Nearly ten years after the death of long-time ruler Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan looks like a country transformed, but the political system remains tightly controlled, and hopes of meaningful democratic reform are fading, according to journalist and author Joanna Lillis.

In an interview based on her new book

 Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan, Lillis described a country with a modernising economy and more open public sphere, that contrasts with continued intolerance of political opposition, sporadic arrests of critics and “lingering fear” among citizens.

“It definitely feels like a different country,” Lillis told bne IntelliNews. “While we can criticise President [Shavkat] Mirziyoyev for the things he hasn’t done, there’s a very sharp contrast between how it was under Karimov and how it is now.” She detailed changes in how people live, how the economy functions, how people speak and what they dare to talk about.

One of the clearest changes, Lillis said, is economic liberalisation. “If we look at the economy, there are some very basic things that make it look different to me,” she said. “One example is the loosening of currency restrictions which were absolutely draconian under Karimov. That has aided businesses enormously — people tell me that again and again.”

She also recalled that under Karimov, for example, foreign bank cards did not function and there was a thriving black-market currency trade. “You used to see the black-market traders hissing at you in bazaars. Now, you just go to a bank or cashpoint. Under Karimov, Uzbekistan didn’t even have ATMs that could take foreign cards.”

More broadly, the economy is a lot more open and vibrant, and it has become easier for businesses to operate. “There were always small businesses in Uzbekistan — Uzbeks are very entrepreneurial people — but now I see a lot more happening.”

Cautious opening 

On the other hand, while Uzbekistan’s media and online debate have become more open, there are limits on the space for criticism.

“Socially, I think it’s very different,” Lillis said. “Obviously people remain wary of talking. The initial euphoria of the opening of the media and the loosening of the screws has worn off a bit, especially as people are now being arrested for critical remarks on social media.” She pointed too to the decision to criminalise criticising the president, but still argued the contrast with Uzbekistan under Karimov, who ruled from 1989 until his death in 2016, is undeniable.

"The kind of debates that take place in the public domain, the kind of conversations that take place would never have taken place under Karimov,” she said. “Just look at the thriving blogosphere. There is a lot of self-censorship and there are risks to crossing red lines, but there are thriving conversations.” 

According to Lillis, Uzbekistan today remains contradictory: colourful, welcoming and outward-facing, yet still capable of harsh crackdowns.

“Uzbekistan is dazzling and charming and beautiful and vibrant. I think anyone who visits will come back with that impression,” she said. 

That was also the case under Karimov, when the outward charm was in stark contrast to the harsh treatment of Uzbekistan’s population. The difference today, she argued, is one of degree.

“There is still that dichotomy, because there are still terrible things happening,” she said. “There is still repression. But it’s not as extreme as it was under Karimov. The contrast isn’t as stark.”

Red lines remain

Despite rhetoric about openness, Mirziyoyev has shown no willingness to allow political competition, according to Lillis. “Opposition is completely forbidden, at pretty much any level,” she said.

Among Lillis’ interviewees for the book are Khidirnazar Allakulov, the country’s best known opposition politician. “He has serious ideas — he has a programme, a manifesto — and he has tried multiple times to set up a party,” she said. “He told me he faced harassment and even violence because of that. That’s an example of where the red line lies.”

An attempt by popular singer Jahongir Otajonov to run for president in 2021 was also quashed. “He was kidnapped off the roadside, subjected to violence and threats of sexual violence, and told to stay out of politics. To me, that shows how nervous, even paranoid, the authorities remain about any political alternative emerging.”

Lillis was the only foreign journalist to reach the Karakalpakstan region immediately after the July 2022 unrest, sparked by proposed constitutional amendments that would have reduced the autonomy of the region. 

She described the situation when she arrived as “very tense” with a “fearful population”. Moreover, she argued, the events were entirely avoidable. “Had the government simply consulted people, had there been open discussion, the unrest could have been prevented. But instead, there was a top-down approach, no explanation and then a heavy-handed response.”

Despite similarities to Kazakhstan, where protests in early 2022 spiralled into nationwide unrest, Lillis does not see a high likelihood of an imminent repeat in Uzbekistan.

“I think the government keeps a tight grip on things partly to prevent any outbreaks of public unrest. Public protest is a complete no-no in Uzbekistan because they are afraid of what it might spiral into,” she said. 

She warned that suppressing people can create a “pressure cooker situation where suddenly the lid blows off as it did in Kazakhstan in 2022”. However, she does not see any sign of that in Uzbekistan. 

“People are afraid to protest, especially after witnessing what happened in Karakalpakstan,” she said. On top of that, “Mirziyoyev is popular in some quarters for having brought change to the country, a little bit more freedom, as well as a better economy.” 

Between reform and control

In one positive step, Mirziyoyev has brought in younger technocrats and encouraged Uzbek experts abroad to return, a change Lillis welcomes. She described a “massive influx of fresh blood into the structure of power” under the new president. 

“One thing Mirziyoyev has done is encourage talented Uzbeks living abroad to return home and work in the administration. That’s positive,” she said. “And he has brought in a lot of young blood. [Some ministers] are younger than in the Karimov era, they’re technocrats, they’re obviously passionate about doing a good job.” 

But elements of the old system remain firmly intact. As Lillis pointed out, the prime minister, Abdulla Aripov, held high-ranking positions in the telecoms sector during a period marked by major telecom bribery scandals involving the former president’s daughter Gulnora Karimova. “There hasn’t been a decisive break — either with the system or with the personnel,” she said.

Karimov’s legacy also remains politically untouchable. “His grave in Samarkand has become a place of pilgrimage in Samarkand,” Lillis said. “Mirziyoyev acts as if he’s trying to dismantle the dictatorship, but he is also encouraging public reverence for the dictator.”

Asked whether she is ultimately hopeful about Uzbekistan’s future, Lillis commented: “I can’t see Mirziyoyev loosening the screws; he’s actually tightening them now … That doesn’t inspire confidence. Allowing people more freedoms would benefit the people and the country.” At the same, she does think “he will continue with economic reforms and that will support growth, which will be good for the people”.

Overall, she said, she is optimistic because “Uzbekistan is already a better country than it was under Karimov”. Moreover, "whatever the leaders do, there are always the Uzbek people. They are talented, creative and dynamic, and they will always make a go of their country.”