Monday, March 07, 2022

UPDATED
Led by Truckers, Hundreds of Vehicles Protesting Covid Mandates Encircle Washington

The convoy slowed traffic outside the capital for hours before fading in the afternoon.


Hundreds of vehicles, led by a group of truckers, gathered at a racetrack in Hagerstown, Md., before leaving to protest on the Capital Beltway.
Kenny Holston for The New York Times


By Madeleine Ngo, Adam Bednar and Esha Ray
March 6, 2022

WASHINGTON — Draped in American flags and fueled by anger, hundreds of vehicles led by a group of truckers encircled the nation’s capital on Sunday, hampering traffic outside the city for hours by driving at slower speeds to protest Covid-19 mandates.

The convoy of vehicles — dozens of trucks, along with minivans, motorcycles, pickup trucks and hatchbacks, with many displaying signs that read “Freedom” — aimed to complete two loops on Interstate 495, a 64-mile highway known as the Capital Beltway, before returning to a staging area in Maryland, with plans to potentially ramp up the demonstration in the coming days. But by the second time around, the vehicles appeared to be so spread out that the congestion took on the feel of a weekday morning commute, before opening up in the afternoon.

Although it was unclear whether the caravan would ultimately enter Washington, D.C., this week, organizers said they did not want people to drive into the capital on Sunday out of fears that some participants could turn it into a chaotic event reminiscent of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. They also wanted to avoid a confrontation with law enforcement after dozens of people protesting in Ottawa, the Canadian capital, were arrested last month.

Christopher Rodriguez, the director of the District of Columbia Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, said the protest did not result in any major disruptions to the city’s transportation routes on Sunday, although he said that it was a “fluid and unpredictable event.”

He added that the city government was urging residents to prepare for increased traffic levels around the region and said he expected more convoys from across the country to join in the next few days. The city’s request to extend National Guard resources was also approved through Wednesday, and 249 personnel and 15 heavy vehicles remain to help respond to any roadway disruptions. Mr. Rodriguez said no citations were issued, and a Virginia State Police spokeswoman said no tickets were given to members of the convoy.

The group behind the caravan, the People’s Convoy, has been demanding an end to the national emergency that was first declared by former President Donald Trump in March 2020 and was recently extended by President Biden. The protesters have also called for congressional hearings into the origin of the pandemic and an end to government rules requiring masks and vaccinations. But those demands have been undercut by the reality that many U.S. states have already started rolling back restrictions as virus cases and deaths have ebbed.


 convoy traveled down I-70 to the Capital Beltway on Sunday.Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times


A protester at the rally in Hagerstown, Md. Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times


And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance in late February suggesting that the vast majority of Americans could stop wearing masks. Many medical experts say vaccine mandates are effective in persuading more people to get their shots, which they say is essential to helping prevent the spread of the virus.

Although the People’s Convoy was one of several groups inspired by the Canadian protests against pandemic measures that disrupted the capital of Ottawa for three weeks, many in the group appeared to be aligned with far-right organizations and activists. On Saturday, organizers with the People’s Convoy shared a supportive post from a prominent QAnon account on its official Telegram channel.

The convoy first departed from Adelanto, Calif., on Feb. 23 with plans to end the demonstration in the Washington area. Before Sunday, the truckers gathered at a racetrack in nearby Hagerstown, Md., about 70 miles northwest of the capital, converging with other drivers and their supporters.

As the convoy made its way from the Hagerstown Speedway to the highway on Sunday morning, a winding road that was approximately five miles was lined with people waving flags.

By late morning, the convoy, traveling east on Interstate 70 between Hagerstown and Frederick, had caused significant traffic slowdowns. There was a wreck, though it was unclear what caused it. At other points, drivers pulled over to stop and wave flags. As the convoy slowly progressed toward I-495, a handful of officers from the Maryland State Police could be seen, in some cases helping to clear flags from the road. Many overpasses were crowded with onlookers waving flags, though some motorists passing the convoy appeared frustrated at the congestion.

In the early afternoon, the convoy continued to slow traffic, but the vehicles were so spread out — across five lanes — that the sense of a mass presence faded, though the traffic itself lingered. At one point just before the vehicles reached I-495, car speeds reached about 70 miles per hour, but then traffic tightened again, with cars settling into a rolling backup, going between 25 m.p.h. to at times less than 10.

Although overpasses later in the route contained fewer supporters of the convoy, many still waved flags and held signs thanking the truckers or expressing support for Mr. Trump. Few vehicles of the Maryland State Police were seen, but when the route crossed into Northern Virginia, a heavy police presence was evident, with Virginia troopers in patrol cars and on motorcycles.

Overall, the first loop took nearly two hours to complete.

During the second loop, vehicles in the convoy seemed to be completely scattered, and more counterprotesters appeared on overpasses, with one waving a sign that read “Go Away.”


Convoy participants and their supporters in Hagerstown on Saturday.Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times
Supporters lined an overpass in Yavapai County, Ariz., in February as the convoy passed through the Southwest on its way to Maryland.Credit...Meridith Kohut for The New York Times

Steve Girard, 59, who joined the convoy about five days ago in Indiana with his 1998 white Chevy van, said he felt compelled to join the protest since he wanted to see an end to Covid-19 vaccine and masking mandates. While on the road, Mr. Girard said he felt encouraged to see some supporters waving at the group, and he hoped that the demonstration would lead to meetings with lawmakers and the end of the national emergency declaration.

“There is no emergency,” said Mr. Girard, a resident of Lancaster, Pa. “We don’t need to get a shot just because a politician says we need to get a shot.”

Mr. Girard said he was particularly angry over the fact that his 7-year-old granddaughter had to wear a mask while riding the school bus.

“Why should a child have to wear a mask?” Mr. Girard said. “Kids aren’t getting sick.”

According to data from the C.D.C., there have been at least 865 reported deaths involving Covid-19 in children under 17, and more children were hospitalized during the surge driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant than at any other point in the pandemic.

William Smink, 31, who routinely commutes from Baltimore to Washington for work, said the convoy didn’t have a big impact on him. Mr. Smink, who works for a local TV station, said that while his commute, which typically takes 45 minutes, was derailed by the truckers and ended up taking about an hour, he still made it to work on time.

“For the most part, they were very respectful,” he said. “If there was a big enough space, in between the trucks, they were letting people merge in and out of the lanes. They were just driving well below the speed limit.” He would go about half a mile, he said, and then everybody would slam on their breaks. Then, they would crawl for another mile, and then traffic would pick back up.

Before the protesters departed on Sunday morning, Brian Brase, one of the convoy’s organizers, said before a crowd of gatherers that they intended to show “truly how large we are.” Although Mr. Brase said the convoy did not plan to enter the capital “at this time,” he did not rule out the possibility.

“We’re not going to shut anything down today. We’re just going to do a convoy so that they can see that we’re in their backyard and that we are huge,” Mr. Brase said. “We’re doing this to let them know that we are very serious.”

Ron Dimaline, 67, a pastor and retired coal industry worker from Pike County, Ky., started riding in his dump truck with the convoy two days ago. On Sunday morning, he said he had grown frustrated with the rising cost of gas and feared that the United States was drifting toward communism. But anti-Covid measures particularly irritated him.

“Let people alone. If you want to wear a mask, wear a mask,” he said. “I’ll stay away from you.”

Giulia Heyward contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on March 7, 2022, Section A, Page 14 of the New York edition with the headline: Truckers Protest Mandates Even as Covid Rules Are Eased. 

Far-right “People’s Convoy” arrives outside Washington D.C.


Jacob Crosse
WSWS.ORG


Over the weekend, the US-based, far-right “People’s Convoy,” ostensibly organized in opposition to rapidly disappearing COVID-19 public health measures, arrived in the Washington D.C. area, without causing any noticeable traffic problems or blockades.

Despite significant support from far-right sections of the ruling class, including in favorable reports, interviews with rally organizers, daily coverage on Fox News and on fascist former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast, the convoy—as of this writing—appears to have only drawn in about 1,000 vehicles, fewer than half of them heavy trucks.
People gather at Hagerstown Speedway as the People Convoy of Truckers stages Saturday, March 5, 2022, in Hagerstown, Md on their to the Washington area.
(AP Photo/Jon Elswick)

While organizers attempted to paint the convoy as an organic expression of working class resistance to the “bio-medical security state,” in the words of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the relatively small convoy was dominated by the petty bourgeoisie not the working class. Most of the vehicles were pickup trucks, SUVs and recreational vehicles, along with a few hundred semi-tractors, festooned with American and Canadian flags, as well as pro-Trump slogans.

The profit-driven, anti-scientific message espoused by the “People’s Convoy” was to declare the pandemic “over,” even though it continues to kill more than a thousand people a day, adding to the death toll of nearly 1 million in the US alone. This is linked to conspiracy theories that the pandemic is a hoax devised by the government and the media, and that the vaccination campaign is secretly inserting computer chips into people’s bodies for nefarious purposes.

This anti-science, anti-public health message is deeply unpopular. Despite an unrelenting media and political campaign, spearheaded by the Biden administration, which has fully embraced Trump’s “herd immunity” policies, a majority of the US population still supports mask mandates to stem the spread of the coronavirus. According to a February CBS News-YouGov poll, 56 percent of respondents said their state should require the wearing of masks inside, including 57 percent who said masks should be required in schools.

The cross-country plague convoy left Adelanto, California, on February 22, picking up a few hundred COVID-19 denialists and far-right supporters along the way. About 5,000 people gathered on Friday night at the Hagerstown Speedway, a racetrack about 80 miles outside of the US capital. On Sunday, the convoy left the track and headed toward Washington, where they proceeded to spend about four hours driving twice around the Capital Beltway, a 64-mile stretch of interstate that surrounds the D.C. metro area.

On Sunday, a few dozen people gathered on various overpasses on the Beltway either in support or against the convoy. While various social media groups in support of the convoy attracted thousands of followers online in the past few weeks, events in Ukraine have caused divisions within the ultra-right movement, with some backing out due to fear that the convoy is a “false flag” operation, designed to entrap Trump supporters.

Last month the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) leaked a memo warning that the convoy could cause significant traffic disruptions, gridlock and lead to possible counter-protests. The memo warned that the convoy would seek to emulate the occupation of downtown Ottawa, the Canadian capital, and could surround the U.S. Capitol. Fearing a possible repeat of January 6, 2021, the fascist attack on the Capitol during the counting of electoral votes in the presidential election, the Pentagon authorized the deployment of 700 National Guard soldiers and 50 large vehicles, while steel security fencing was erected around the Capitol complex.

While organizers of the convoy had sought to create disruption, on Sunday roughly two hours into their loop around the Capital Beltway the convoy became dispersed with normal traffic, causing no delays.

“We’re not even sure we can call it a convoy anymore because it’s so dispersed among routine traffic at this point,” Virginia State Police spokeswoman Corrine Geller told the Washington Post. The official webpage of the “People’s Convoy” noted that participants will continue to mass at the Hagerstown Speedway.

The “People’s Convoy” has so far failed to have the same impact as its Canadian counterparts, an indication that the US ruling class and the Biden administration will not brook any disruptions to the drive toward imperialist war with Russia. The Post reported on Sunday that the Pentagon had authorized extending the presence of National Guard soldiers in D.C. through Wednesday.

In an interview with NBC News , convoy co-organizer and Trump operative Brian Brase stressed the convoy will not actually enter the District of Columbia. Brase, who has admitted to being in constant contact with law enforcement, instead said participants will continue to drive around the Beltway every day as part of an effort to force lawmakers to give in to the convoy’s nebulous and evolving demands.

“What the People’s Convoy’s looking for is, we’re looking for immediate end to the state of emergency,” Brase told NBC. “We don’t believe there is an emergency any longer.”

Like the Canadian convoy, the US convoy has been a top-down operation, with comparatively few actual working truck drivers, organized and funded by the same forces behind former President Donald Trump’s failed coup. Leading Trump co-conspirator and former Trump aide Peter Navarro boasted on Bannon’s War Room podcast this past Friday that the convoy and its “truckers” are “making an incredibly important statement about these failed vaccine mandates.”

“And we must press that through,” added Navarro.

Demonstrating the support the convoy has within the “America First” wing of the Republican Party and by extension the ruling class as a whole, on Monday, Republican representatives Matt Gaetz (Florida), Thomas Massie (Kentucky) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia) will be hosting a “Trucker Round Table” with rally organizers, where they will combine the homicidal demands of the opponents of vaccination with the incitement of fascistic violence on behalf of Trump.

Camped outside DC, uneasy truckers paralyzed by paranoia vow to stay until demands met


March 06, 2022

HAGERSTOWN, Md. — Thousands of angry conservative supporters of the truckers convoy rallied at a speedway in rural Maryland 60 miles outside of the Capital Beltway on Saturday evening, torn between the imperative for militant action to reject COVID measures and the recognition that disruption will likely result in legal repercussions.

Addressing supporters filling the stands at Hagerstown Speedway, organizer Brian Brase said leaders “are currently right now working on another location that when we move to puts us within just a few miles of the Beltway,” while imploring them not to go into the District of Columbia.

“They are waiting for us to show up, and it’s a trap,” Brase said.

Brase said organizers expected to hold meetings with members of Congress at the new location near the Beltway, adding, “We will not leave until we get what we ask for.” He listed a number of demands that are unlikely to be met by the current Congress under Democratic leadership, but will likely provide talking points for the Republicans’ goal of regaining control of the legislative branch during this year’s midterm elections.

“That’s why we don’t go anywhere, sir, until they actually start to do something,” Brase said, responding to a man who shouted out that lawmakers are “liars.” “That’s why we sit there in their backyard and we wait until they legitimately drop the state of emergency, they drop the vaccine mandates, and they begin the process of bipartisan investigations… to find out the transparent version of the pandemic’s origins, and ask who is responsible for screwing this up so badly.”

From a practical standpoint, Brase urged rallygoers to extend their hotel stays in Hagerstown through Sunday night. During his speech, Brase invited supporters to a meeting at the speedway at 8 a.m. on Sunday to discuss plans for the day. The Washington Post reported late Saturday that Brase told the newspaper the convoy will circle the Beltway twice on Sunday; Brase did not mention the plan during his remarks at the speedway on Saturday evening. (On Sunday morning at about 9 a.m., two sources on the ground at the Hagerstown Speedway — Left Coast Right Watch and photojournalist Zach D. Roberts — confirmed that the truckers are mobilizing to make two loops around the Beltway.)


The leadership of the convoy is not unanimous on the tactical decision to stay out of the District of Columbia.

Before Brase pleaded with supporters to stay out of DC, another organizer, Mike Landis vowed: “My truck with that flag will go down Constitution Avenue.” In response, the crowd broke into a chant of “USA! USA! USA!”

Leigh Dundas, an antivaccination lawyer who played a key role in assembling the convoy, also warned against going into DC in a statement issued on Saturday. On March 3, an admin for the People’s Convoy posted a statement on the official Telegram channel indicating that the group had “cut ties” with Dundas’ organization, Freedom Fighter Nation, and would “no longer be affiliated with” her. The statement also said, “We only have like-minded individuals in our organization and are continually rooting out people that do not have the best interest of the convoy in mind.”

In a statement posted on the Freedom Fighter Nation website on Saturday that appears to replicate a letter sent from Dundas to Brase, Landis and two other organizers, Dundas wrote: “Gentlemen, I feel it is my duty to reiterate to you that to the extent that you are participating in a convoy whose final destination is Washington, DC proper, the Beltway, or areas quite proximal to these destinations or roadways, you are making an immeasurable mistake. The goodwill and strength of the message that has been built will be eviscerated, and more importantly, shutting down transportation routes whether intentionally or accidentally in the Washington, DC area will undoubtedly put people’s lives in danger.”

A note attached to the statement indicated that the letter was written in the late evening of March 2 and early morning hours of March 3 “after receipt of information,” but was not sent to the organizers until March 4 — after the People’s Convoy had officially cut ties with her.

“Any escalation of a situation between the People’s Convoy (and other participants) and law enforcement agencies and/or the National Guard (should any escalation occur), could rapidly proceed to harrowing proportions, and leave a lasting stain on this movement and you gentlemen in particular,” the statement continued.

The statement authored by Dundas on the Freedom Fighter Nation is also attributed to Ray Alexander, who is described as a “former Naval commander.” According to a footnote attached to the statement, Alexander “did briefly continue onward volunteering his time as the advance team (between Wednesday evening and this Friday morning), in an effort to transfer the baton smoothly on the logistics and venue-sourcing front.”

Adding further confusion about the alleged differences that led to the parting, Dundas’ personal assistant, Maureen Steele, has remained involved with the convoy, and spoke at the rally at Hagerstown Speedway on Saturday evening.

Josh Yoder, an airline pilot who has been speaking at the nightly rallies held by the People’s Convoy, also cautioned against going into DC.

“I can tell you that right now as I speak there are traps being laid in DC,” Yoder said during the rally on Saturday evening. “I’ve been on the phone today with federal agents in DC. And I am pleading with all of you: We cannot go into the District of Columbia. It cannot happen. They are telling me anyone who comes in there with the convoy is probably going to be detained. There’s going to be big problems. I’m asking you: Please keep this peaceful. Keep it law-abiding. And do not go into the District of Columbia. I’m begging you.”

Organizers are also worried about bad actors within their own ranks. On Saturday afternoon, right-wing provocateurs Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman were kicked out of the speedway grounds after trying to mobilize people to go to DC that day.
“Right now we need to stand together even more than we have this entire journey,” Brase said during the rally on Saturday evening. “It starts with policing ourselves. There are many here tonight that probably shouldn’t be here, if you know what I mean. Those of you that are here that fall in that category, you know exactly who you are. But guess what? So do I.”

With COVID restrictions easing as case counts drop, the complaints voiced by convoy participants have expanded into a full panoply of conservative grievances, including anger about inflation, opposition to government overreach in general, and lack of faith in President Biden’s leadership on foreign policy.

In a segment for former White House strategist Steve Bannon’s podcast, a trucker identified as “Stan” said the convoy participants want to go back to an earlier time that was somehow more free.

“Things that have happened in this country in the last year — we just want to go back to the way it was before the COVID stuff,” Stan said. “Personally, me, I’d like to go back before 9/11, the Patriot Act. Things like that. It’s just very tyrannical type stuff. It’s government overreach. And that’s what we’re all about. Sure, the mask things and the shots and all this, they’re the… easy thing to talk about, but it’s all the other things behind the scenes…. We have freedom. They’re trying to take it away, and we’re gonna stop ’em. We’re gonna take our freedom back to where it was before.”



Celebratory scene at truckers convoyyoutu.be

Following the speeches at the speedway, supporters retreated to the parking lot where they prepared to unfurl a giant American flag. The air was charged with anger and celebration as a row of rigs revved their engines and blasted their horns, with fireworks streaking into the sky. Supporters facing the rigs enthusiastically waved signs and chanted, “Let’s go Brandon,” a euphemism for “F*ck Joe Biden.”


Near the entrance to the speedway, a young man held up a cell phone and filmed the scene, exclaiming, “There must be thousands of people here. This is what it looks like when America stands up.”

Vehicles were scattered around the parking lot in random configurations as rallygoers held cell phones aloft in the dark to record the spectacle. A volunteer directing traffic at the entrance yelled angrily at a van driver attempting to leave the premises and at a man driving a flatbed truck who was attempting to turn into the driveway. Both failed to heed directions before eventually yielding. Pickup trucks sped down National Pike, a two-lane highway, with flags fluttering in the wind, as pedestrians carefully picked their way along the shoulder packed with cars.

A young man from a truck called out, “F*ck you, Biden!”

It was a cheerful greeting to compatriots, albeit strangers, and the throng of people walking to their cars responded in kind, hooting in agreement.

Truckers convoy organizer Brian Brase,


Convoy ridiculed for costing truckers thousands in diesel — then getting lost on the Beltway
RAW STORY
March 06, 2022


The average semi-truck gets about 6.5 miles per gallon, said ArrowTruck.com in an advice post for how to save fuel. TopMark also noted that claims that there are trucks that can somehow get 10 miles per gallon are "a fantastic pipedream."

At a time when the Fox network and Republican politicians are complaining about the high price of fuel, the trucker convoy is showing that the cost of fuel clearly isn't bad enough to deter their driving protest.

As some noticed, the convoy is going to be forced to pay out thousands for just a day of protest. The lowest price for diesel in Hagerstown, Maryland, is $3.93 per gallon, according to GasBuddy, and the highest is $4.56. So, at an average of $4.25 per gallon and the average trip from Hagerstown to I-495, and around the Beltway and back to Hagerstown, is about 184 miles.

That means each drive from Hagerstown, a loop around the Beltway, and back to Hagerstown will cost about $120.32 each trip for one truck. If there are 100 trucks that's over $12,000 in diesel fuel.

Given the disasters abroad, some are asking how many refugees fleeing Ukraine could get hot meals from the World Central Kitchen for that amount.

The truckers intend to increase the number of loops they will make each day. That means, on Monday, they will travel 248 miles for two loops. Day three will be 312 miles. By the end of the week, each truck in the convoy will be using up 440 miles in diesel, which will cost them approximately $287.69 for the trip. For just 20 trucks that's over $5,700. The convoy has raised over $1.5 million. If they count the cost for their return home, that means they're likely to run out of cash fairly quickly.

On Sunday, some of the group got lost and separated, which likely caused them to use up more fuel.

Meanwhile, the Right Side Broadcasting Network showed a three-hour video watching cars driving on the Beltway. Part. of the shot was blurred by the fence it sat behind.

See the mockery of the convoy below:







India’s Aloof Response To The Ukraine Crisis – Analysis

 India's Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi meeting the President of Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on December 06, 2021. Photo Credit: PM India

By 

By Artyom Lukin and Aditya Pareek*

Moscow’s decision to recognise the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and then launch a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has created a tricky balancing act for India. Delhi’s immediate reaction to the crisis has been restrained, neutral and focused on ensuring the safety of its nationals inside Ukraine.

Several hours after Russian military action was underway, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi urged that all violence should be ceased immediately and reiterated India’s emphasis on diplomacy and ‘honest and sincere dialogue’ between Russia and NATO.

On 26 February 2022, the United Nations Security Council held a vote on a resolution demanding that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops. India was among the three countries to abstain, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. India’s UN envoy expressed his ‘regret that the path of diplomacy was given up’. India also abstained on a procedural resolution to call for an emergency session of the UN General Assembly.

Modi also held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which he expressed ‘his deep anguish about the loss of lives and properties’ but refrained from directly criticising Russia.

The India–Russia relationship is officially characterised as a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. The entente between Moscow and Delhi dates back decades. Though the bond is no longer the de facto alliance it once was in the 1970s and 1980s, Moscow remains Delhi’s an important strategic partner, on par with the United States. The two nations don’t have any significant areas of disagreement and both share a fundamental interest in a multipolar balance of power in Eurasia.

India relies on Russia for the majority of its imported military equipment, nuclear submarine technology and some vital space faring technology. A highlight of India–Russian defence cooperation has been the US$5.43 billion deal for the S-400 air defence system, which Russia began delivering in December 2021. Russian-made weapons are critical to India’s ability to counter its main external threat — China.

There are also perhaps ideational factors behind India’s reluctance to censure Russian actions toward Ukraine. The conflict over Ukraine may have some parallels with India’s historic traumas. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union that led to the birth of an independent Ukraine was not dissimilar to the partition of the British Raj, which produced India and Pakistan, two culturally close but still antagonistic entities. Putin characterises the modern state of Ukraine in antagonistic terms as an ‘anti-Russia’ project.

Western powers portray the conflict as a struggle between an imperialistic autocracy and a young democracy, but Delhi may not buy this narrative. India has always been somewhat sceptical about the US-led discourse on liberal democracy. This remains the case despite the Westernisation of Indian elites. Under Modi, India has been evolving in an illiberal and ethno-nationalistic direction. It is an open secret that India wants to maintain its sphere of influence in parts of South Asia.

India does not have many significant security interests in Europe, which helps explain its relative aloofness to the Ukraine crisis. But Delhi does have some stakes in Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Space Research Organisation’s semi cryogenic engine is being developed based on Ukrainian supplied RD-810 designs and many Indian navy warships depend on Ukrainian gas turbines, including those under construction at Russian shipyards. So India has a national security stake in not alienating Ukraine.

Another reason for India’s repeated calls for the cessation of violence, de-escalation and resolving the situation through diplomacy is high energy prices, which may negatively affect India’s stressed economy.

Delhi’s position on the Ukraine crisis also needs to be examined in the context of the Russia–China–India triangle. Some subtle evolution has taken place here. India spoke of Russia’s ‘legitimate interests’ in the wake of the 2014 events on the Crimean Peninsula, which could be interpreted as a position of implicit support for Russia. By contrast, Beijing maintained a more neutral position at the time. India has also since then abstained or voted against Russia-denouncing UN resolutions concerning Crimea.

However, as the Ukraine crisis continues to unfold, China seems to have become more supportive of Russia as indicated in Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s remarks during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. During the call, Wang Yi mentioned ‘Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues’. India has made no such reference to ‘Russia’s legitimate interests’ and remains more neutral compared to China in the current crisis.

A key concern for Indian foreign policy is how the Ukraine crisis — and its unpredictable outcome — will affect Russia’s relations with China. There is little doubt that the security mess in Europe and the West’s ostracisation of Russia will push Moscow further toward Beijing. If Russia’s dependence on China deepens and Western condemnation of Russia intensifies, the Delhi–Moscow ‘privileged partnership’ could be at serious risk.

*About the authors

  • Artyom Lukin is Deputy Director for Research at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok.
  • Aditya Pareek is a research analyst at the Takshashila Institution.

Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum

East Asia Forum is a platform for analysis and research on politics, economics, business, law, security, international relations and society relevant to public policy, centred on the Asia Pacific region. It consists of an online publication and a quarterly magazine, East Asia Forum Quarterly, which aim to provide clear and original analysis from the leading minds in the region and beyond.
Gas tops $4 per gallon average, 1st time since 2008


The price of regular gas at the Conoco station off I-81 near Mahanoy City, Pa., was $4.09 on Sunday morning, March 6, 2022. The station is right off of the 1-81 exit. (Jacqueline Dormer/Republican-Herald via AP)

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of regular gasoline broke $4 per gallon (3.8 liters) on average across the U.S. on Sunday for the first time since 2008.

During the first full week of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of regular gas rose by almost 41 cents, according to the AAA motor club.

That represents the second largest jump in average national prices in a week, GasBuddy reported.

“As Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to evolve and we head into a season where gas prices typically increase, Americans should prepare to pay more for gas than they ever have before,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said in a statement.

The all-time high for average gasoline prices was set in July 17, 2008 at $4.10 per gallon.

Neither President Joe Biden nor Congress has moved to ban the import of Russian oil or place energy sanctions on the country, which could have major global economic repercussions.

On Sunday, California had the highest average price per gallon among U.S. states at $5.29, while Missouri had the lowest at around $3.60.
Poland Still Isn't Interested In Transferring Its MiG-29s To Ukraine

The U.S. is actively pushing for the transfer but Poland still says it won't give its MiG-29s to Ukraine.

BY STETSON PAYNE AND TYLER ROGOWAY 
MARCH 6, 2022
THE WAR ZONE

JAKUB HALUN/WIKICOMMONS

Days after a European Union-announced plan to supply Ukraine with fighter jets fell through upon statements from Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian defense officials, it appears the U.S. government is still encouraging a transfer of jets to Ukraine despite Russian warnings.

Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said a potential transfer of Polish Air Force MiG-29s to Ukraine would get a “green light” from the U.S. government to proceed. Blinken added there are ongoing negotiations with the Polish government, with particular attention to how Poland would replace those donated jets, potentially with American fighters.



“We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes,” Blinken told reporters separately on Sunday during his visit to Moldova. “I can’t speak to a timeline but I can just say we’re looking at it very, very actively.”

Our previous analysis of the rumored plan involving multiple nations donating aircraft to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force noted its looming logistical and political hurdles, to the point of it being totally unrealistic. Politico reported Saturday that negotiations are now focused on Warsaw only and revolve around the U.S. providing U.S.-built fighters to replace its MiG-29s.

Despite Secretary Blinken’s endorsement on Sunday morning, the Polish government is swiftly labeling any claims that Poland has or will provide its MiGs to Ukraine as “fake news.” The Chancellery of the Polish Prime Minister’s Twitter account has habitually replied to claims with a quote tweet from the Polish Armed Force emphasizing Polish MiG-29s are not in Ukraine and stating explicitly:

Poland won't send its fighter jets to #Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports. We significantly help in many other areas.



Apart from the need to backfill Poland's fighter inventory if their roughly 28 MiG-29s go to Ukraine, there’s the incredibly real problem of Russia considering such a move as active participation in the war by a NATO country.



NATO Article 5 being what it is, the threat of escalation beyond Ukraine is real. If the Russian government made good on its declaration and attacked Poland in some manner, even via a cyberattack, things could quickly turn into a larger war between Russia and NATO. That likely played no small part in the original rejection of the E.U. fighter transfer plan by the relevant NATO members last week.

Still, Secretary Blinken’s statements on the Sunday morning news circuit could indicate a split between how badly the U.S. government wants to reinforce Ukraine’s air combat capabilities and how much NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ countries are willing to risk doing it. These countries certainly have aircraft suitable for transfer, but independent of incurring a Russian response in the short term, they could also be wary of giving away a large chunk of their air power when they might need them to deter Russia or even for a potential conflict with Russia. In fact, so outrageous were the claims by major media outlets and some Ukrainian officials early in the week in regards to how many aircraft would be donated that some air arms would have been left with no fighters at all for their own defense. We pointed out how unrealistic this was at the time.

Renewed discussion about the MiGs came the day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an impassioned plea for more support, including fighters, during a Zoom call with more than 280 members of Congress.

Given the Russian declaration that would seemingly rule out flying new jets into Ukraine directly, it appears the overt transfer of fighter aircraft could become a ‘red line’ red line for Russia in terms of potential escalation.

We’ve already seen massive overt shipments of ammunition and weapons by road convoys over the Polish border. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak tweeted a picture purportedly showing a convoy of ammunition sent to Ukraine in the war’s first days, though there have been few direct public acknowledgments of this vector for resupply as Russian rhetoric against them has grown. Combined with an ongoing surge of cargo flights into Rzeszow, Poland, not far from the Ukrainian border, it would appear that for now, Russia is begrudgingly stomaching NATO reinforcement by land. DOD has said on more than one occasion in the past few days that they've seen no attempts by Russia to intervene with these shipments

Regardless, it is widely understood that this is how most NATO-supplied weapons are entering the country.



But how does one get potentially several dozen MiGs over the border without being detected or even flying them at all, and do so covertly enough that it does not invite a widening of the conflict? Partially disassembling them and trucking them in is a possibility, but, then again, the sudden appearance of new MiG fighters in Ukraine and the disappearance of them from Poland certainly wouldn’t go unrecognized by Russia.

With all this in mind, it still seems unlikely that Poland will hand over its full MiG-29 fleet to Kyiv, at least at this time and at the scale currently being discussed. Additionally, even if it decided to do it today, there could be major timeline and logistics obstacles. NATO equipment would likely have to get removed from the aircraft for one. Then the aforementioned issue of just getting them into the country is becoming more tumultuous a proposition with each passing day. This, along with the fact that western allies claim that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities remain remarkably intact, and the reality that the Russian air threat has not dictated the course of the war, makes providing a couple of dozen old MiGs to Ukraine less of a strategic imperative than other initiatives aimed at supporting the country’s ability to whether Kremlin’s military onslaught.


ANDRE WADMAN Polish MIG-29 taxiing.

Then again, if the U.S. can make the deal sweet enough, maybe Poland would take the risk. Such an arrangement could include U.S. fighter aircraft being temporarily forward-deployed to Poland to make up for the gap left by the MiG-29 force. While U.S. fighter capabilities in the region are already overstretched in some regards, this would help alleviate any air defense shortcomings Poland would experience from such a deal.

In their place, the decades-old MiG-29s could be offset by surplus F-16s provided by the United States. They could come from U.S. stocks, which would not be as straightforward in the near term as some would think, or from an ally that has surplus F-16 aircraft for sale. Much of the latter have been snapped up by other NATO members as of late who are transitioning from old Soviet-era gear and by the U.S. private adversary air support marketplace.


New order Block 70 F-16s are now in very high demand with a multi-year waiting period. Even if some orders could be diverted to Poland, which is highly unlikely as countries who are waiting for their F-16s have their own pressing military challenges to deal with, they would not start showing up for quite some time.

No matter where they would come from, it will take some time to get them delivered and get Polish crews trained to fly and support them. Poland flies the much more modern Block 52+ F-16C/D. While the type has much in common with earlier block Vipers, they are far from totally the same and would require specific training and logistical support to reach full operational capability in Polish hands. The U.S. also has Block 52 aircraft, but they are some of the youngest in the USAF's inventory and have been upgraded to U.S. standards. These aircraft serve in critical operational roles, as well as flying with the USAF Thunderbirds. Aside from the Thunderbirds, forking over these aircraft would disrupt USAF air combat capabilities until they could be replaced by F-35 or F-15EX fighters, and they still are not identical to the F-16s Poland flies today.


USAF Polish F-16C Block 52+.

The other possibility is that the U.S. offers to speed up Poland’s F-35 procurement of 32 aircraft and even offers those additional aircraft at a discount in exchange for the MiG-29s. This would be tricky, but it could be enticing enough to Poland to invite more risk in the short term for extra high-end combat capability in the long term.

It’s also possible that MiG-29s could be acquired from a different source and then transferred through Poland. What country would want to get involved at all by forking over its MiG-29s for this conflict is a big question. And nothing like this would be able to occur in the very near term.

Finally, as we have stated previously, this entire conversation becomes more realistic when smaller numbers of aircraft are discussed. For instance, the idea that Poland could send say a half dozen MiG-29s to Ukraine instead of liquidating its entire fleet is far more palatable and wouldn't have the massive operational impacts we are discussing here. Offsetting that smaller loss in combat capability is simply far easier to contend with.

Regardless, according to Poland’s own statement at the highest level, the country has no intention of sending its MiG-29s to Ukraine. Until that sentiment changes totally, this entire exercise, now in its second round, remains hypothetical.

Contact the editor: Tyler@thedrive.com
The End of the End of History: What have we Learned So Dar?

By Branko Milanovic - 07 March 2022
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE


Branko Milanovic argues that, once again, the idea that one type of system will eventually be embraced by all is being violently shown to be a delusion.

Wars are the most horrible events. They should never happen. The entire human effort should be directed toward making wars impossible. Not just illegal, but impossible, in the sense that no-one would be either able or have incentive to start them.

But we are, unfortunately, not there yet. The humankind has not evolved that far. We are now in the midst of a war that may become a very murderous war.

Wars are also an opportunity (however cold-hearted this might seem) to reassess our priors. Things are suddenly thrown into a much sharper focus. Our beliefs are transformed into illusions. The nostrums become meaningless. We have to deal with the world as it is, not with the world we imagined until a day before.

So, what have we learned after one week of the Ukraine-Russia war? I will try not to speculate about the outcome. Nobody knows it. It can end with the occupation and subjugation of Ukraine, or it can end with the break-up of Russia. And everything in between. Neither I, nor the reader, nor Putin, nor Biden know it. So I will not speculate on it.
But what do we seem to have learned so far?

1. Power of oligarchy. The power of oligarchy when it encounters le raison d’état is limited. We tended to believe that Russia, being an oligarchic capitalist economy, is also one where the rich decisively influence policy. Perhaps that in many everyday decisions that is the case. (I do not have in mind here the oligarchs who live in London and New York, but those who live in Moscow and St Petersburg and who may be also heads or large shareholders of powerful private and semi-state-owned companies.) But when the matters of state are serious, for the organized power, that is, the state, oligarchy is no match. The threat of sanctions, so visibly displayed and trumpeted by the US weeks before the war started, might have influenced Russian oligarchs to move their yachts as far as possible from US jurisdiction, or to engage in fire-sales of their property, but it made no difference to Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war.

Nor did all the buying of influence by the rich Russians among the Tories in the UK or both political parties in the US matter. Neither did the “sanctity of private property” on which the United States was created (and which so much attracted the oligarchs to move their stolen wealth there in the first place). The US proceeded to probably the largest inter-state transfer of wealth in history. It is the equivalent of Henry VIII’s seizure of church lands. While we have seen such gigantic confiscations within countries (the French and Russian revolutions) we have never seen it, in one fell swoop, in 24 hours, between the countries.

2. Financial fragmentation. The corollary of this point is that extremely rich people are no longer safe from political forces—even if they change citizenship, contribute to political campaigns, or dedicate a wing of a museum. They can fall victim to geopolitics they do not control and which are much beyond their remit—and at times beyond their understanding. To remain excessively rich would require more than ever political nous. Whether the globally rich will interpret this confiscation to mean that they must more seriously than ever capture the machinery of the state, or they interpret it to mean that they should find other new havens for their investments is impossible to tell. Most likely it will lead to the fragmentation of financial globalization and to the creation of new and alternative financial centers, probably in Asia. Where will they be? I think the strong candidates are the democratic countries with a degree of judicial independence, but also enjoying sufficient international political clout and margin of maneuver not to yield to the pressure of the US, Europe or China. Bombay, Djakarta come to mind.

3. The end of the end of history. We—or at least some people--tended to believe that the “end of history” meant not only that the ultimate political and economic system was discovered in one night in November of 1989, but that the old-fashioned tools of international struggles will not reappear. The latter was shown wrong several times already, from Iraq and Afghanistan to Libya. A more brutal demonstration is in the process of being executed right now where borders are being redrawn using the instruments that the world has practiced for 5,000 years of recorded history but that were thought obsolete.

The current war displays to us that the complexity of the world, its cultural and historical “baggage”, is great and that the idea that one type of system will eventually be embraced by all is a delusion. It is a delusion whose consequences are bloody. To have peace, we need to learn to live while accepting differences. These differences are not trivial differences that go under the current title of being open to variety, in way we dress, in our sexual preferences or the food we eat. The differences we need to accept, and to live with, are much more fundamental and they relate to the way societies function, what they believe in, and what they think is the source of legitimacy of their governments.

That of course can change in the course of time for any one given society, as it did many times in the past. But at a given point, it will differ from country to country, from region to region, from religion to religion. To assume that everyone who is not “like us” is somehow deficient, or not aware that they would be better off being “like us” will –if we maintain this flawed belief—remain the source of endless wars.


This first appeared on Branko's blog.

Photo by Andrea Piacquadio from Pexels
Russia limiting communications at nuclear facility, watchdog says

MARCH 6, 2022 / 8:03 PM / CBS NEWS

Ukrainian staff continue to operate the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, however, it is now under Russian control and they have shut down some external communication to the plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Sunday. The power plant, which is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was taken over Friday by Russian forces after shelling led to a fire at one of the training facilities.

According to the IAEA, Russian forces at the site "have switched off some mobile networks and the internet so that reliable information from the site cannot be obtained through the normal channels of communication." Ukraine also reports that all Ukrainian activity at the plant, "including measures related to the technical operation of the six reactor units," must now be approved by the Russian commander at the plant.

Russian forces have also taken control of a second nuclear power plant and are closing in on a third, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the U.S. Congress on Saturday.

Ukraine ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova told "Face the Nation" on Sunday that the international community should step in and help Ukraine regain control of the nuclear sites from Russia. Markarova noted that the first nuclear plant the Russians seized was the infamous Chernobyl plant, which is "not operational," but still poses a risk because "there is a lot of waste there and everything else."
Surveillance camera footage shows the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant following shelling, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine March 4, 2022, in this screengrab from a video obtained from social media. 
ZAPORIZHZHYA NPP VIA YOUTUBE VIA REUTERS

"The second one's operation is the largest one in Europe. So actually, that put the world on the brink of the nuclear disaster," she added. "And even though, again, our firefighters were able to put down the fire, nobody is safe. Ukraine is not safe. Europe is not safe. Because these stations are not supposed to be run by war criminals."

The fire at the power plant was extinguished and no damage was done to any of the reactors. No elevated levels of radiation were detected following the attack. Russia has denied deliberately shelling the nuclear plant.

Markarova said Sunday that Ukraine is "ready for any option" to take back the power plants, even suggesting that a no-fly zone be established — something Zelensky has asked for on several occasions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia would consider any nation that imposes a no-fly zone to be a participant in the war. NATO had previously said that creating a no-fly zone could lead to a larger war in Europe, and Senator Marco Rubio told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday that, "basically a no-fly zone, if people understand what it means, it means World War III."

Despite the ongoing Russian assault, a senior U.S. defense official said Sunday that the Pentagon believes Ukrainians in most parts of the country still have internet access and most means of communication are still available. The official said that Russia has now committed roughly 95% of the forces it had gathered along the border inside Ukraine.

Still, there were few changes on the ground in the last 24 hours, the official said. A Russian military convoy seen in Maxar satellite imagery continues to be stalled and "leading elements" are still outside the major city centers, although exact distances were not given.

The official added that, while both sides have "taken losses to both aircraft and missile defense inventories," Ukraine and Russia still have the "majority of their air defense systems and capabilities."

Margaret Brennan and Eleanor Watson contributed to this report.

Belarus Deputy Defense Minister Reportedly Quits Over Invasion of Ukraine


By    |   Sunday, 06 March 2022 05:19 PM

Belarus Deputy Defense Minister and chief of general staff Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich has reportedly quit due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Washington Examiner reported over the weekend.

His resignation was revealed in a letter he wrote and posted online by former Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Nosov.

In it, Gulevich said he is unable to mobilize his soldiers to take part in the Russian attack on Ukraine because they do not want to participate, writing that he thus asks Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin "for your decision regarding the acceptance of my resignation," according to the Washington Examiner.

However, the Belarus government raised doubts about the authenticity of the letter and said that its military forces are "100 percent" ready to be deployed wherever they are ordered to go.

Gulevich has been personally sanctioned by the West, with the British Foreign Ministry announcing last week that this action was taken because "he has directed joint military exercises with Russia, and consented to the deployment of Russian troops along the border of Belarus with Ukraine, which has directly contributed to Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine, including from positions in Belarus," the Daily Mail reported.

Oleksiy Arestovych, the advisor to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, said that he is checking the accuracy of the reports, but denied that the Belarus army is being used in the attack on Ukraine.

However, Arestovych did acknowledge that the territory of Belarus is being utilized in the attack, with the entire system of military airfields being used to bombard Ukraine, as well as anti-tactical missiles being  launched from its territory.



Read more: Belarus Deputy Defense Minister Reportedly Quits Over Invasion of Ukraine | Newsmax.com

Europe's nuclear dilemma

Europe's nuclear dilemma
 Gabriella Turrisi

Last Friday’s attack by Russian forces on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant triggered outcry over the potential for a Chernobyl-like disaster. The US called it a “war crime,” and the issue was debated in an emergency session of the UN Security Council, where Russia received a global dressing down.

The blaze resulting from artillery use at Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear facility was eventually controlled. But Ukraine’s nuclear regulator told the IAEA on Sunday that it is having problems communicating with staff at the plant, and that a Russian general now controls the facility.

Putin’s next target, according Shaun Burnie, a senior nuclear specialist with Greenpeace, could be the three reactors at the Yuzhnoukrainsk power plant, which generates 10% of Ukraine’s electricity and is a major energy supplier throughout southern Ukraine. “Loss of cooling function to the reactor cores and spent fuel pools could lead to a disaster far worse even than the [2011] Fukushima Daiichi [disaster],” Burnie warns.

While the war is threatening Ukraine’s nuclear power operations — not to mention impacting world energy supplies and prices — it’s also raising questions about the safe use of nuclear energy. The continent has been accelerating its nuclear power usage — now officially, and controversially, labeled “green” by the European Commission, despite the threat of accidents and radioactive waste.

But the fast-changing security landscape poses a dilemma for European policymakers. How can they fight global warming while balancing their energy needs with this new security threat posed by Vladimir Putin?

“Europe is finally reckoning with the reality that its importing of Russian natural gas helped finance the Putin regime and puts it in grave danger,” says Josh Freed, senior vice president of Third Way, a pro-nuclear energy think tank in Washington, DC.

Nuclear energy has been a highly divisive issue in Europe for decades. Austria voted in the late 1970s not to build nuclear power plants, and after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986, Germany and Italy halted production of new NPPs while Switzerland imposed a 10-year moratorium.

After the 2011 tsunami-triggered disaster at Japan’s Fukushima plant, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced plans to phase out Germany’s use of nuclear energy altogether. Her successor, Olaf Scholz, seemed to have the same idea when he assumed office. But now, with its dependency on Russian gas exposed, Germany is considering a halt to its phase-out plan, even as it scrambles for other options.

Meanwhile, France has been emboldened by the EU’s goals for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 based on a shift away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy, including nuclear. As Europe’s nuclear energy powerhouse (with 56 reactors), France plans to build even more nuclear plants. Energy price hikes and concerns about Europe's dependence on Russian gas have further driven the French and their colleagues in Brussels for more energy sovereignty.

“That shift will only accelerate Europe’s acceptance of using nuclear, and every other clean energy technology, to help countries become more energy sovereign and address climate change,” says Freed. “It's also an acknowledgement that no energy source is entirely without risk.”

And just how risky is nuclear power with a war raging in Europe? According to the World Nuclear Association, there are now 58 reactors under construction around the globe, with two in Ukraine. Meanwhile, 421 are planned and proposed worldwide. Most of the upcoming projects are in China and India — both hostile to each other — but 89 are earmarked for Europe, with the majority in Russia and Eastern Europe.

“The recent attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine raise troubling issues about the safety and security of both the operating nuclear fleet around the world and proposals to build new ones, especially in countries located in or close to politically unstable regions,” says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington, DC.

Nuclear plants are designed to withstand certain accidents and external events, but not sustained military assult. For Lyman, Russia’s recent move means “there is a new category of threat that reactor operators and designers need to take more seriously, and that may require additional protective measures to mitigate.”

Many new reactor designs — especially so-called small modular reactors, or SMRs — have even less protection than operating plants, according to Lyman. With smaller, weaker containment mechanisms and fewer backup safety systems to rely on in an emergency, safety systems that these reactors typically have are no match for a military attack.

But politics, not science, is the main concern when it comes to nuclear energy, insists Freed.

“If Putin wants to kill countless people by blowing up a dam, attacking a chemical plant, or launching missiles at a nuclear plant, he could do it. But the fact is, and despite some cable news hysteria, nuclear plants are incredibly safe.”

Unlike in Chernobyl, Freed says the reactors at Zaporizhzhia have three-foot steel and concrete containment domes. The ones that would be built in Europe are designed to withstand a direct impact by a large aircraft or a terrorist attack. And the new reactors under development now, including SMRs, “will be even safer.”


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