UCP KENNEY leaked confidential poll data despite refused permission, Alberta pollster says
UCP 'really did cherry pick' numbers that it leaked, says
pollster Janet Brown
An Alberta pollster is calling out the United Conservative Party for leaking private data from a poll she did, which shows the party has moved ahead in popular support.
Janet Brown believes the party leaked some of the more favourable results from her poll, because Premier Jason Kenney's leadership review is coming up on April 9, and memberships need to be bought by Saturday.
However, she said that the leaked information is missing context and doesn't include some of the less flattering data.
"They had asked me if I would be willing to put this data out, because they thought it would work to their advantage," said Brown. "I had said 'no' to them on a couple of occasions, but they leaked the numbers anyway."
Brown runs Opinion Research, which does polling for clients across the political spectrum, as well as unions and other businesses. She also sends a syndicated report, called The Wild Ride Update, to subscribers, one of which is the UCP.
The subscription agreement, however, states that subscribers must keep the data in her reports confidential, she explained while on CBC's Daybreak Alberta.
"My business model just doesn't work if the data the client has paid for is out there in the media."
Brown says she knows it was the UCP who leaked the poll because each report she gives to clients has a unique footer at the bottom of every page.
"The reporters who have received the document have confirmed to me that the document they receive is the one that I prepared for the initial party," she said while on CBC's West of Centre.
The UCP has not responded to CBC's requests for comment.
UCP 'really did cherry pick' results, says Brown
Earlier this week, Alberta government political staffers received emails asking them to take Friday off work and volunteer to call supporters ahead of the leadership vote.
The latest Angus Reid Institute poll suggests Kenney has a 30 per cent approval rating — second-lowest among the provincial premiers. Kenney is also combatting critics within his party, namely Brian Jean.
Jean, who recently won the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection as the UCP candidate, has been outspoken about Kenney needing to step down as party leader, and will be gunning for that role on April 9.
"They very much wanted to have some good news out there, because so many other polls were not reflecting very positive on the UCP," said Brown.
Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University, says this leak shows there is a lot of nerves at the premier's office.
"This and a number of other things indicate that there is a great deal of concern, almost panic, it seems," she said.
"They are very worried about the vote on April 9th and they are pulling out all the stops to try to manage a win."
Brown says the party "really did cherry pick" the data, explaining that what was leaked is missing context.
For example, Brown's poll suggests the UCP is ahead by four points and that the premier's approval rating has climbed from an "abysmally low" 19 per cent to the current level of 36 per cent.
Yet, the reporting so far doesn't focus on the fact that 60 per cent of Albertans disapprove of the job that Kenney has done as premier.
Also, 55 per cent of the poll's respondents said they find what Kenney says about the economy and Alberta's future as not very, or not at all, trustworthy, she said.
"So, yes, things have definitely improved for the UCP, things have improved for the Premier," Brown said.
"But there's a lot of data in here that would suggest that this is probably not the celebration that the UCP want it to be."
Brown added that her polls also track what she calls "soft" or "orphaned" voters — people that didn't give an opinion. Without factoring them in, someone cannot accurately comprehend the results.
In the poll that was leaked, soft voters made up about 14 per cent of respondents. This suggests that there are still many voters who are "sitting on the sidelines," not really knowing what happens next, she said.
They are undecided, in part, because they don't know who the premier will be as of April 10.
'Unethical,' says political scientist
Williams says the UCP leaking this data is "unethical," because the data was supposed to be confidential and they didn't include all of the information when they leaked it.
"This is the bread and butter for Janet Brown and her polling organization. So they're basically jeopardizing her business for the sake of what they thought might be a good news story at a time when the news is otherwise very bad," she said.
"But then there's the dishonesty involved in releasing information that looks like it's saying one thing, when if all the information were released, it would be clear that it's saying something quite different."
With files from Daybreak Alberta and West of Centre podcast
Braid: Pollster says she was pressured by UCP and the premier's office
Janet Brown accuses the UCP of 'spinning' her numbers and releasing private commercial information
Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
Publishing date:Mar 18, 2022 •
Pollster Janet Brown regularly produces an Alberta opinion survey called Wild Ride Update. The latest took her on a wilder ride than she ever expected.
She accuses the UCP of “spinning” her numbers and releasing private commercial information.
Brown came under intense political pressure when her poll for paying clients showed a strong government comeback, with even the prospect of a majority in next year’s election.
Calls urging her to release the poll came from senior levels of both the party and the premier’s office.
“They were desperate for some good news ahead of the leadership vote, and they thought they could spin these numbers in a positive light. I repeatedly told them ‘No,’ but they leaked them to the media anyway.”
Journalists began getting summaries or the poll itself, sometimes from roundabout routes.
The poll, which I received, is certainly dramatic.
Brown says that in current conditions the UCP could win 40 per cent of the popular vote and 47 legislature seats, compared to 36 per cent and 40 seats for the NDP.
Other pollsters show much lower popularity and vote percentage for Premier Jason Kenney and his party.
Brown’s work was exactly what they’ve been praying for — a positive, reputable poll with the leadership review looming on April 9, and new party membership sales for that vote cutting off at midnight Saturday.
But there was a problem. The information is confidential. Brown agrees with all her paying clients — everyone from unions to parties and companies — not to make results public.
“The United Conservative Party is a subscriber, and earlier this week, they asked me repeatedly if I would release some of the data,” Brown said.
“I explained to the UCP that a leak would cause issues for me with the other subscribers. But they still leaked some of the numbers.”
When her data goes public, she says, her whole business is threatened.
“Who will want to pay for the information? My polling methods are very expensive. I can’t do this without the support of my clients.”
With the most dramatic numbers out of the bag, Brown says the leaks “stripped out the context” of her findings.
“For instance, the survey also showed that 60 per cent of Albertans disapprove of the job Jason Kenney is doing as premier,” she said.
“And 55 per cent find the things Jason Kenney says about Alberta’s economy and future to be not very or not at all trustworthy.
“I’ve been pulled into this unwillingly, but now that it’s out there I feel I should provide that context.”
The original source of the leak seems obvious.
Brown marks each client’s copy with their name, “partly so I’ll know who leaked it if that happens,” she says.
Every page of the copy I received says “UCP.”
Brown stresses that the party did not order this poll. All clients receive her regular syndicated survey and she decides on the issues.
The other question, of course, is the credibility of the poll itself. Brown is out of sync with others who now find only a modest UCP comeback
But she has a long record of producing results that seem eccentric at first and then prove to be correct.
In 2008, when everybody thought then-premier Ed Stelmach was in difficulty, she predicted he would win between 70 and 72 legislature seats. He got 72.
In the 2012 provincial election, Brown was as wrong as everyone else, expecting a Wildrose victory that turned out to be another big PC win.
That’s when she became convinced there was a “structural problem” in Alberta polling and revised her methods, especially the handling of undecided voters.
As a result, she often finds higher conservative support than other pollsters do.
“It’s been a challenge my whole career, trying to convince people that when I have results they’re not the results I want, they’re what I find and believe to be going on in Alberta.”
Governments and parties love her or hate her depending on her results.
“The UCP caucus cancelled my subscription a year ago because they were so appalled by my numbers.
“I did some work on Alberta’s reputation outside the province, and Jason Kenney stood in front of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and basically called my work un-Albertan.”
Now her findings are suddenly correct because they’re useful.
“I’m just a girl in a bathrobe trying to do good work in an industry of giants,” Brown says.
“Being accurate has always been a lot more important to me than being popular. I treasure my independence.”
Her new findings have been sucked into Alberta’s frantic political whirlwind and spun out again for purely partisan reasons.
Given her record, however, her take on the UCP comeback might just turn out to be right.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
Twitter: Don Braid
Facebook: Don Braid Politics
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