THE LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH: Cervical cancer burden remains high in many countries, scale-up needed to meet WHO’s 2030 elimination target

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE LANCET

Peer-reviewed / Observational study / People

• Incidence rates of cervical cancer in most countries remain much higher than the threshold set by WHO of 4 per 100,000 women to consider cervical cancer eliminated as a public health problem.
• Globally in 2020, there were over 600,000 estimated new cervical cancer cases and over 340,000 resulting deaths.
• Persistently high rates of cervical cancer in LMICs and recent increases in countries in Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are of particular concern.
• Targets to to reach the WHO elimination threshold by 2030 will be missed unless countries scale up screening programmes, improve coverage of HPV vaccination and improve access to affordable treatment. 

There were over 600,000 new cases of cervical cancer and over 340,000 deaths worldwide in 2020, according to an observational study published in The Lancet Global Health journal.

Although cervical cancer has decreased in many world regions over the past three decades⁠—notably in Latin America, Asia, western Europe and North America—the burden remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. 

The development of effective HPV vaccination and screening programmes have made cervical cancer a largely preventable disease. In 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a target to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem, aiming to reduce incidence below a threshold of four cases per 100,000 women per year in every country by 2030. This study tracks the progress on cervical cancer rates and identifies the countries and regions where efforts require scaling up to reach WHO targets. 

Dr Deependra Singh, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) / WHO, France, says “HPV vaccination and screening technologies mean that cervical cancer is now largely preventable. Our study finds encouraging decreases in some high-income countries following successful implementation of HPV vaccination programmes and screening—such as in Sweden, Australia, and the UK—but globally the burden remains high. All over the world, women should be free from the risk of preventable cancer, and with development of effective vaccines and screening over the past 20 years, we have the tools to make this a reality.” [1]

The study used IARC’s GLOBOCAN 2020 database to estimate the burden of cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates in 185 countries. Additionally, the study analysed the relationship between cervical cancer cases and deaths in relation to national levels of socioeconomic development. Finally, the authors looked at data from 1988 to 2017 to identify increase and decrease trends. 

In 2020, rates of cervical cancer cases were 13 per 100,000 women per year and there were seven deaths per 100,000 women per year. Incidence rates in 172 out of 185 countries, still exceeded the four cases per 100,000 women per year threshold for elimination set by WHO. 

Rates varied significantly between countries, with a 40 times difference in cases and 50 times difference in deaths. Case rates ranged from two cases in Iraq to 84 cases in Eswatini per 100,000 women per year; while mortality rates ranged from one death in Switzerland to 56 deaths in Eswatini per 100,000 women per year. 

There was substantial socioeconomic inequality in cervical cancer globally. There was a clear socioeconomic gradient in incidence and mortality, with higher rates observed in countries with lower socioeconomic development. 

When looking at the trend data from 1988 to 2017, the authors observed major declines in cases in some Latin American countries, including Brazil, Colombia, and Costa Rica. A similar pattern was observed in Asia in India, Thailand, and South Korea, as well as in Eastern Europe in Poland, Slovenia, and Czechia. However, there were increases in cases in Eastern Europe, in Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria, and Eastern Africa in the past decade, as well as in The Netherlands and Italy. The reasons for recent increases might include increased prevalence of HPV among the younger generations of women and lack of effective screening programmes.

Countries with the largest average declines in incidence rates per year included Brazil (8%), Slovenia (7%), Kuwait (7%), and Chile (6%); whereas the highest increases in rates were in Latvia (4%), Japan (3%), Ireland (3%), Sweden (3%), Norway (2%), Northern Ireland (2%), Estonia (2%), and China (2%).

Dr Valentina Lorenzoni, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Italy, says, “Cervical cancer cases are much higher than the threshold agreed by the WHO initiative on cervical cancer elimination in most countries, indicating that there is still much work to be done before 2030. While a decrease in screening intensity due to the COVID-19 pandemic might have left a new group of susceptible women, the pandemic also boosted the introduction of self-administered HPV testing, offering new possibilities to increase screening coverage. Other new advancements, such as thermal ablation for treating cervical pre-cancer, the use of mobile phones to improve follow-up after screening, and machine learning to improve visual assessment, can also be used in low resource settings to lower cervical cancer rates.” [1]

Finally, the authors note that the estimates were based on the best available cancer data in each country, but caution that these may be incomplete or inaccurate. For instance, cases may appear low in countries where there are no effective screening programmes or there is limited local population-based cancer registry data available. 

NOTES TO EDITORS

This study was funded by Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation of the European Commission. D. Singh was supported by the French Institut National du Cancer (INCa). It was conducted by researchers from International Agency for Research on Cancer; Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Italy; US National Cancer Institute, USA; Scientific Institute of Public Health, Belgium; University of Ghent, Belgium. 

[1] Quote direct from author and cannot be found in the text of the Article.

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Global Health

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Global estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2020: a baseline analysis of the WHO Global Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

14-Dec-2022

COI STATEMENT

We declare no competing interests. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/WHO, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article, and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy, or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/WHO. Where authors are identified as personnel of US National Cancer Institute, the opinions expressed are their own and this material should not be interpreted as representing the official viewpoint of the US Department of Health and Human Services, the National Institutes of Health, or the National Cancer Institute.

Machine learning reveals how black holes grow

Leveraging supercomputing power, University of Arizona researchers created simulations of millions of computer-generated "universes" to test astrophysical predictions that have eluded astronomical observations.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

 

IMAGE: HOW IT WORKS: USING TRIAL AND ERROR, MACHINE LEARNING TESTS MANY DIFFERENT PAIRINGS OF SIMULATED GALAXIES AND BLACK HOLES CREATED USING DIFFERENT RULES, AND THEN CHOOSES THE PAIRING THAT BEST MATCHES ACTUAL ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATIONS. view more 

CREDIT: H. ZHANG, WIELGUS ET AL. (2020), ESA/HUBBLE & NASA, A. BELLINI

As different as they may seem, black holes and Las Vegas have one thing in common: What happens there stays there – much to the frustration of astrophysicists trying to understand how, when and why black holes form and grow. Black holes are surrounded by a mysterious, invisible layer – the event horizon – from which nothing can escape, be it matter, light or information. The event horizon swallows every bit of evidence about the black hole's past.

"Because of these physical facts, it had been thought impossible to measure how black holes formed," said Peter Behroozi, an associate professor at the University of Arizona Steward Observatory and a project researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan.

Together with Haowen Zhang, a doctoral student at Steward, Behroozi led an international team to use machine learning and supercomputers to reconstruct the growth histories of black holes, effectively peeling back their event horizons to reveal what lies beyond.

Simulations of millions of computer-generated "universes" revealed that supermassive black holes grow in lockstep with their host galaxies. This had been suspected for 20 years, but scientists had not been able to confirm this relationship until now. A paper with the team’s findings has been published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

"If you go back to earlier and earlier times in the universe, you find that exactly the same relationship was present," said Behroozi, a co-author on the paper. "So, as the galaxy grows from small to large, its black hole, too, is growing from small to large, in exactly the same way as we see in galaxies today all across the universe."

Most, if not all, galaxies scattered throughout the cosmos are thought to harbor a supermassive black hole at their center. These black holes pack masses greater than 100,000 times that of the sun, with some boasting millions, even billions of solar masses. One of astrophysics' most vexing questions has been how these behemoths grow as fast they do, and how they form in the first place.

To find answers, Zhang, Behroozi and their colleagues created Trinity, a platform that uses a novel form of machine learning capable of generating millions of different universes on a supercomputer, each of which obeys different physical theories for how galaxies should form. The researchers built a framework in which computers propose new rules for how supermassive black holes grow over time. They then used those rules to simulate the growth of billions of black holes in a virtual universe and "observed" the virtual universe to test whether it agreed with decades of actual observations of black holes across the real universe. After millions of proposed and rejected rule sets, the computers settled on rules that best described existing observations.

"We're trying to understand the rules of how galaxies form," Behroozi said. "In a nutshell, we make Trinity guess what the physical laws may be and let them go in a simulated universe and see how that universe turns out. Does it look anything like the real one or not?"

According to the researchers, this approach works equally well for anything else inside of the universe, not just galaxies.

The project's name, Trinity, is in reference to its three main areas of study: galaxies, their supermassive black holes and their dark matter halos – vast cocoons of dark matter that are invisible to direct measurements but whose existence is necessary to explain the physical characteristics of galaxies everywhere. In previous studies, the researchers used an earlier version of their framework, called the UniverseMachine, to simulate millions of galaxies and their dark matter halos. The team discovered that galaxies growing in their dark matter halos follow a very specific relationship between the mass of the halo and the mass of the galaxy.

"In our new work, we added black holes to this relationship," Behroozi said, "and then asked how black holes could grow in those galaxies to reproduce all the observations people have made about them."

"We have very good observations of black hole masses," said Zhang, the paper's lead author. "However, those are largely restricted to the local universe. As you look farther away, it becomes increasingly difficult, and eventually impossible, to accurately measure the relationships between the masses of black holes and their host galaxies. Because of that uncertainty, observations can't directly tell us whether that relationship holds up throughout the universe."

Trinity allows astrophysicists to sidestep not only that limitation, but also the event horizon information barrier for individual black holes by stitching together information from millions of observed black holes at different stages of their growth. Even though no individual black hole's history could be reconstructed, the researchers could measure the average growth history of all black holes taken together.

"If you put black holes into the simulated galaxies and enter rules about how they grow, you can compare the resulting universe to all the observations of actual black holes that we have," Zhang said. "We can then reconstruct how any black hole and galaxy in the universe looked from today back to the very beginning of the cosmos."

The simulations shed light on another puzzling phenomenon: Supermassive black holes – like the one found in the center of the Milky Way – grew most vigorously during their infancy, when the universe was only a few billion years old, only to slow down dramatically during the ensuing time, over the last 10 billion years or so.

"We've known for a while that galaxies have this strange behavior, where they reach a peak in their rate of forming new stars, then it dwindles over time, and then, later on, they stop forming stars altogether," Behroozi said. "Now, we've been able to show that black holes do the same: growing and shutting off at the same times as their host galaxies. This confirms a decades-old hypothesis about black hole growth in galaxies."

However, the result poses more questions, he added. Black holes are much smaller than the galaxies in which they live. If the Milky Way were scaled down to the size of Earth, its supermassive black hole would be the size of the period at the end of this sentence.

For the black hole to double in mass within the same timeframe as the larger galaxy requires synchronization between gas flows at vastly different scales. How black holes conspire with galaxies to achieve this balance is yet to be understood.

"I think the really original thing about Trinity is that it provides us with a way to find out what kind of connections between black holes and galaxies are consistent with a wide variety of different datasets and observational methods," Zhang said. "The algorithm allows us to pick out precisely those relationships between dark matter halos, galaxies and black holes that are able to reproduce all the observations that have been made. It basically tells us, 'OK, given all these data, we know the connection between galaxies and black holes must look like this, rather than like that.' And that approach is extremely powerful."

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JOURNAL

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

DOI

10.1093/mnras/stac2633 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

TRINITY I: self-consistently modelling the dark matter halo–galaxy–supermassive black hole connection from z = 0–10

New robot does ‘the worm’ when temperature changes

Creators envision ‘gelbots’ crawling through human bodies to deliver medicine

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

 

VIDEO: SOFT ROBOTS MADE OF HYDROGEL ARE MADE TO CRAWL DURING TEMPERATURE CHANGES. view more 

CREDIT: AISHWARYA PANTULA/JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

A new gelatinous robot that crawls, powered by nothing more than temperature change and clever design, brings “a kind of intelligence” to the field of soft robotics.

The inchworm-inspired work is detailed today in Science Robotics.

“It seems very simplistic but this is an object moving without batteries, without wiring, without an external power supply of any kind – just on the swelling and shrinking of gel,” said senior author David Gracias, a professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at Johns Hopkins University. “Our study shows how the manipulation of shape, dimensions and patterning of gels can tune morphology to embody a kind of intelligence for locomotion.”

Robots are made almost exclusively of hard materials like metals and plastics, a fundamental obstacle in the push to create if not more human-like robots, than robots ideal for human biomedical advancements.

Water-based gels, which feel like gummy bears, are one of the most promising materials in the field of soft robotics. Researchers have previously demonstrated that gels that swell or shrink in response to temperature can be used to create smart structures. Here, the Johns Hopkins team demonstrated for the first time, how swelling and shrinking of gels can be strategically manipulated to move robots forward and backward on flat surfaces, or to essentially have them crawl in certain directions with an undulating, wave-like motion.

The gelbots, which were created by 3D printing for this work, would be easy to mass produce. Gracias forsees a range of practical future applications, including moving on surfaces through the human body to deliver targeted medicines. They could also be marine robots, patrolling and monitoring the ocean’s surface.

Gracias hopes to train the gelbots to crawl in response to variations in human biomarkers and biochemicals. He also plans to test other worm and marine organism-inspired shapes and forms and would like to incorporate cameras and sensors on their bodies.

Authors included Aishwarya Pantula, Bibekananda Datta, Yupin Shi, Margaret Wang, Jiayu Liu, Siming Deng, Noah J. Cowan, and Thao D. Nguyen, all of Johns Hopkins.

The work was supported by: National Science Foundation (EFMA-1830893).

Gelbots do 'The Worm' When Temperature Changes (VIDEO)

Gel robots feel like gummy bears.

A new gelatinous robot that crawls, powered by nothing more than temperature change and clever design, brings “a kind of intelligence” to the field of soft robotics.

CREDIT

Aishwarya Pantula/Johns Hopkins University

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JOURNAL

Science Robotics

DOI

10.1126/scirobotics.add2903 

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! a

Economic pain, Turkish strikes drive Syrian Kurds to Europe

By KAREEM CHEHAYEB and HOGIR AL ABDO

1 of 5

In this UGC photo Baran Mesko takes a selfie in a fishing boat with a dozen other Kurdish Syrian migrants before leaving to Spain in Oran, Algeria, on Saturday, Octo. 15, 2022. A growing number of Syrian Kurds are making the journey to Europe on a circuitous course that includes travel by car and plane across Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, then finally by boat to Spain. (AP Photo/Baran Msko)

QAMISHLI, Syria (AP) — Baran Ramadan Mesko had been hiding with other migrants for weeks in the coastal Algerian city of Oran, awaiting a chance to take a boat across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.

Days before the 38-year-old Syrian Kurd was to begin the journey, he received news that a smuggler boat carrying some of his friends had sunk soon after leaving the Algerian coast. Most of its passengers had drowned.

It came as a shock, after spending weeks to get to Algeria from Syria and then waiting for a month for a smuggler to put him on the boat.

But having poured thousands of dollars into the journey, and with his wife and 4- and 3-year-old daughters counting on him to secure a life safe from conflict, the engineer-turned-citizen journalist boarded a small fishing boat with a dozen other men and took a group selfie to send to their families before they went offline.

After a 12-hour overnight journey, Mesko made his way to Almería, Spain, on Oct. 15, and then flew to Germany four days later, where he is now an asylum seeker in a migrant settlement near Bielefeld. He’s still getting used to the cold weather, and is using a translation app on his phone to help him get around while learning German. He said he’s hopeful his papers will be settled soon so his family can join him.

At least 246 migrants have gone missing while trying to cross the western Mediterranean into Europe in 2022, the International Organization for Migration says.

Mesko is among a growing number of Syrian Kurds making the journey to Europe on a winding course that includes travel by car and plane across Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, then finally by boat to Spain. Migrants say they are opting for this circuitous route because they fear detention by Turkish forces or Turkish-backed militants in Syria if they try to sneak into Turkey, the most direct path to Europe.

According to data from the European Union border agency Frontex, at least 591 Syrians have crossed the Mediterranean from Algeria and Morocco to Spain in 2022, six times more than last year’s total.

A Kurdish Syrian smuggler in Algeria said dozens of Kurds from Syria arrive in the Algerian coastal city of Oran each week for the sea journey.

“I’ve never had numbers this high before,” the smuggler told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of arrest by Algerian authorities.

Years of conflict and economic turmoil have left their mark on Syria’s northern areas, home to some 3 million people under de facto Kurdish control. The region has been targeted by Islamic State group militants, Turkish forces and Syrian opposition groups from the country’s northwestern rebel-held enclave. Climate change and worsening poverty spurred a cholera outbreak in recent months.

Like Mesko, many of the migrants come from the Syrian city of Kobani, which made headlines seven years ago when Kurdish fighters withstood a brutal siege by the Islamic State militant group.

The town was left in ruins, and since then, “not much has happened” to try to rebuild, said Joseph Daher, a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, adding that most development funding went to cities further east.

Recent events in northeastern Syria have given its residents an additional incentive to leave.

Turkey stepped up attacks on Kurdish areas in Syria after a bombing in Istanbul in November killed six people and wounded over 80 others. Ankara blames the outlawed Kurdish Workers’ Party and the U.S.-backed Kurdish militia, the People’s Protection Unit in Syria. Both have denied responsibility.

Since then, Turkish airstrikes have pounded areas across northeastern Syria, including Kobani, further battering its already pulverized infrastructure, and Ankara has vowed a ground invasion.

Bozan Shahin, an engineer from Kobani, recalled a Turkish airstrike last month.

“I saw my mother trembling in fear and holding my 4-year-old sister to keep her calm,” Shahin said.

He now wants to join the flow of Kurds headed from Syria to Europe.

“I have some friends who found a way to get to Lebanon through a smuggler and go somewhere through Libya,” he said. “I’m not familiar with all the details, but I’m trying to see how I can take that journey safely.”

The operation, which takes weeks and costs thousands of dollars, is run by a smuggler network that bribes Syrian soldiers to get the migrants through checkpoints where they could be detained for draft-dodging or anti-government activism, then across the porous border into Lebanon, the migrants and smugglers said.

There, the migrants typically stay in crowded apartments in Beirut for about a week while awaiting expedited passports from the Syrian Embassy by way of a smuggler’s middleman.

With passports in hand, the migrants fly to Egypt, where Syrians can enter visa-free, then take another flight to Benghazi in war-torn Libya before embarking on the journey to Algeria through another network of smugglers.

“We went in vans and jeeps and they took us across Libya through Tripoli and the coastal road and we would switch cars every 500 kilometers or so,” Mesko said.

During the journey across the desert, they had to cross checkpoints run by Libya’s mosaic of armed groups.

“Some of the guards at checkpoints treated us horribly when they knew we were Syrian, taking our money and phones, or making us stand outside in the heat for hours,” he said.

An armed group kidnapped the group of migrants who left before his and demanded $36,000 for their release, Mesko said.

By the time they reached the Algerian city of Oran, Mesko was relieved to take refuge in an apartment run by the smugglers. While they waited for weeks, he and the other migrants spent most of their time indoors.

“We couldn’t move freely around Oran, because security forces are all over and we did not cross into the country legally,” Mesko said. “There were also gangs in the city or even on the coast who would try to mug migrants and take their money.”

Human rights groups have accused the Algerian authorities of arresting migrants, and in some cases expelling them across land borders. According to the U.N. refugee agency, Algeria expelled over 13,000 migrants to neighboring Niger to its south in the first half of 2021.

Despite his relief at arriving safely in Germany with a chance to bring his wife and girls there, Mesko feels remorse for leaving Kobani.

“I was always opposed to the idea of migrating or even being displaced,” he said. “Whenever we had to move to another area because of the war, we’d come back to Kobani once we could.”

Mesko spends much of his time at asylum interviews and court hearings, but says he’s in good spirits knowing he’s started a process he only dreamed of months ago. He hopes to be granted asylum status soon, so his wife and daughters can reunite with him in Europe.

“Syria has become an epicenter of war, corruption and terrorism,” he said. “We lived this way for 10 years, and I don’t want my children to live through these experiences, and see all the atrocities.”

____

Chehayeb reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Renata Brito reported from Barcelona, Spain.

Record low turnout, opposition boycott mar Tunisia elections

Less than 9 percent of voters turned up to cast their ballot amid an opposition boycott of parliamentary elections.

By Elizia Volkmann
Published On 17 Dec 2022

Tunis, Tunisia – Tunisia’s parliamentary election on Saturday witnessed a record-low turnout as most political parties boycotted the polls, denouncing it as the culmination of President Kais Saied’s march to one-man rule.

Last year, Saied, a former law professor, unseated the government and suspended parts of a 2014 constitution, which was a product of the Arab democratic uprising in 2011. The charter curtailed the president’s powers in favour of parliament and the prime minister.

Tunisia’s previous parliament, which Saied shut down in 2021 as he moved to rule by decree in measures his foes called a coup, was elected with a turnout of about 40 percent.

Saied called Saturday’s legislative vote a “historic day” as he urged Tunisians to cast their ballots.

“It is a historic day by all standards. [The election date] was determined and respected despite all obstacles,” he said after voting at a polling station in the capital Tunis.

However, less than 9 percent of registered voters turned up to cast their ballot on Saturday.

Since the morning, people barely trickled into polling stations. For most of the day, it seemed that there were more voting centre staff and security than voters. Observers said that numbers at best crept into the tens.

At 08:05am (07:05 GMT) at a polling station in downtown Tunis, only one woman – local small business owner Manoubia Shagawi – had turned up to vote.

“I want to support my country and to support my president. I want the country to go forward and get better and that’s why I voted today,” she said.

This was in sharp contrast to a group of young women who, when asked if they intended to vote, responded with a resolute “No” and walked off.

Oumaima ben Abdullah, a campaigner with the centre-left Democratic Current party, said, “The active boycott is by people from civil society and political parties.”

Zoubeir Daly, a founding member of the Tunisian election observation association, Mourakiboun, explained that people were effectively staying away from the ballots as a silent protest rather than apathy.

“It’s a statement about the people’s feelings on the situation of the country overall,” he said.

Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra said the turnout is an indication of the general sentiment among Tunisians who are concerned about the future of their country.

“The opposition has boycotted the election,” he said. “The biggest and most powerful trade union, UGTT, decided it won’t take part in this political process and has been very critical of President Saied.”

Ahelbarra said that the tattered economy, high inflation, and sky-rocketing food prices are all factors in why many people did not vote.

“This explains why people over the last few weeks lost hope in the political process, and hence, [there was] an unprecedented low turnout in Tunisia,” he explained.

‘Vote for who?’

In the capital Tunis, the election process itself went smoothly without a hitch.

New observers, Russia’s Civic Committee, were impressed with the calm professionalism of the elections teams that operated the centres. Security was less intrusive than during the July referendum, but still, against the rules, members of security services regularly wandered through voting centres out of boredom rather than to intimidate.

However, far away from the capital city, other observers witnessed vote buying in the west, in a number of voting centres in Nabeul to the south, Gafsa in the marginalised interior and in the desert city of Tozeur. To the west near the Algerian border in the town of Sbeitla, Mourakiboun witnessed rival candidate supporters involved in a brawl.

The lack of information about candidates has been a big turn-off for many of the electorates. Aymen, a Tunisian taxi driver said he wasn’t planning on voting.

“Vote for who? I have no idea who any of these people are,” he said.

Zyna Mejri of the Tunisian fact verification association, Falso, said that the campaign and running of the elections have been characterised by poor communication and even worse information.

“I think it is based on the ignorance of candidates. They don’t know what the role of the new parliament will be. I don’t think many of them have read the new constitution, and do not know the difference between an MP and a cabinet minister.”

Mejri said that this has led to inadvertent misleading of the electorate.

“They’ve been making promises they will not be able to deliver on because they think they will have the powers of ministers and warned this could cause problems once parliament begins working,” she said.

‘Old man’s world’

Monica Marks, an assistant professor of Arab Cross Road Studies at New York University told Al Jazeera: “No candidate who ran in today’s election could possibly understand what their role can be. Nobody, not even the most seasoned constitutional scholars or Tunisian experts know what the role of a member of parliament will be.”

After the polls closed, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) published the final voter turnout figure of just 8.8 percent of 9.3 million registered voters.

Marks said that she was surprised to see such a seemingly honest voter turnout figure.

“Had the ISIE said voter turnout was over 10 percent, I would have questioned it,” she said.

Throughout the lead-up to the election, human rights groups have decried the lack of female and youth candidates. Come polling day, the majority (66.1 percent) of voters were male and over 45 years old, and the largest group were over 60s.

Commenting on the voter demographic, Marks said: “We saw this in the referendum in the summer and see it even more dramatically now to shift Tunisia one of the most progressive models of gender, youth to a man’s world, and not just a man’s world but an old man’s world.”

The initial results of the legislative elections will be announced on Sunday, but how parliament will actually operate is yet to be seen.

“One thing for sure is that this parliament will be a powerless Potemkin parliament,” Marks told Al Jazeera.

KEEP READING
Tunisians trickle in to vote in elections as opposition boycotts
Will Tunisia’s political crisis ever end?
Why are Tunisia’s parliamentary elections so controversial?

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Germany cuts the ribbon on first LNG terminal
Updated / Saturday, 17 Dec 2022 

Germany plans to open four more government-funded LNG terminals over the next few months

Germany has inaugurated its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, built in record time, as the country scrambles to adapt to life without Russian energy.

The rig in the North Sea port of Wilhelmshaven was opened by Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a ceremony on board a specialist vessel known as an FSRU, named the Hoegh Esperanza.

"It's a good day for our country and a sign to the whole world that the German economy will be able to remain strong," Mr Scholz said from the boat.

The Hoegh Esperanza sounded its horn as the chancellor, dressed in a high visibility jacket, approached.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the new LNG terminal inauguration day

The ship has already been stocked with gas from Nigeria that could supply 50,000 homes for a year, and the terminal is set to begin deliveries on 22 December.

Germany plans to open four more government-funded LNG terminals over the next few months as well as a private terminal in the port of Lubmin.

Together, the terminals could deliver 30 billion cubic metres of gas a year from next year, or a third of Germany's total gas needs - if Berlin can find enough LNG to service them.

LNG terminals allow for the import by sea of natural gas which has been chilled and turned into a liquid to make it easier to transport.

The FRSU stocks the LNG, then turns it back into a ready-to-use gas.

Until now, Germany had no LNG terminals and relied on cheap gas delivered through pipelines from Russia for 55% of its supply.

Supply worries

But since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, gas supplies to Germany have been throttled and Berlin has been forced to rely on LNG processed by Belgian, French and Dutch ports, paying a premium for transport costs.

The government decided to invest in building its own LNG terminals as quickly as possible and has spent billions of euros on hiring FSRUs to service them.

However, Germany has not yet signed a single major long-term contract to begin filling the terminals from January.

"The import capacity is there. But what worries me are the deliveries," Johan Lilliestam, a researcher at the University of Potsdam, told AFP.

A contract has been signed with Qatar for LNG to supply the Wilhelmshaven terminal but deliveries are not set to begin until 2026.

Suppliers want long-term contracts, while the German government is not keen to be locked into multi-year gas deals as it wants the country to become climate-neutral by 2045.

"Companies need to know that the purchasing side in Germany will eventually diminish if we want to meet climate protection targets," economy minister Robert Habeck has said.

Environmental campaigners have criticised the LNG project, with the DUH association announcing it will take legal action. A handful of protesters turned out in Wilhelmshaven with placards demanding an "End to gas".

Cold winter

Germany could initially be forced to buy LNG from the expensive spot markets, which would lead to higher prices for consumers.

The market could also be squeezed next year by renewed demand in China as it emerges from strict Covid-19 curbs, Andreas Schroeder, an expert at the ICIS energy research institute, told AFP.

"If Europe has been able to receive so much LNG in recent months, it is because Chinese demand was low," Mr Schroeder said.

China recently signed a deal to buy gas from Qatar for 27 years - the longest such deal in history, according to Doha.

Germany has also had a cold winter so far, meaning the gas tanks have been emptying faster than expected.

"Gas consumption is increasing. This is a risk, especially if the cold spell continues," said Klaus Mueller, the head of the country's Federal Network Agency regulatory body, in a recent interview.

As a result, there is a real risk that Germany could experience temporary supply disruptions next winter, according to Mr Schroeder.

Gas usage is currently down 13% compared to last year but the government wants that figure to be closer to 20%.

In Europe, the gap between supply and demand could reach 27 billion cubic metres (950 billion cubic feet) in 2023, according to an IEA report - equivalent to 6.5% of the European Union's annual consumption.

Is Hydrogen A Better Alternative To Jet Fuel?

BY DR. OMAR MEMON

The aviation industry is responsible for nearly 2.5% of global carbon emissions

Last week, Simple Flying highlighted the power efficiency of all-electric and electric hybrid aircraft compared to traditional fuel-powered aircraft. While the motor efficiency of both types surpasses that of gas turbine engines, the power output in unit terms is significantly less.

Batteries have 70 times less energy density than jet fuel, making them unviable. Moreover, there is a significant difference between the performance of a battery used for research and what can be certified as a power source for airliners.

Hydrogen-powered aircraft

Hydrogen has three times more energy density than jet fuel. When generated from renewable energy, hydrogen does not emit carbon dioxide. Hydrogen can be used as a power source for short-to-medium haul aircraft. Conventional gas turbine engines can be modified to use liquid hydrogen combustion. Pressurized air from the high-pressure compressor can be mixed with atomized liquid hydrogen for combustion.

Another method of using hydrogen for power is through hydrogen fuel cells to create electrical energy. Unlike the combustion process, fuel cells generate electricity through an electrochemical reaction. Fuel cells require a continuous supply of fuel and oxygen and hence can provide continuous electrical power, which is a limitation in battery-supplied electric power generators.

Hydrogen is a strong candidate to be used as the "fuel" for fuel-cell technology. Hydrogen-powered engines would be environmentally clean as they do not generate carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide.

It is noteworthy that the size of a single fuel cell is only a few millimeters thick, and it does not generate much energy. Therefore, large stacks of electrically connected fuel cells and channels of numerous stacks are required to provide sufficient power to the aircraft.

Testing hydrogen technology

Earlier this year, Airbus launched the ZEROe demonstrator program to develop a zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035. Airbus seeks to test various hydrogen-based technologies to be utilized in the future. Airbus plans to use the A380, the world’s largest passenger aircraft, as a test platform for the ZEROe program. The spacious double-decker cabin of the A380 makes it an ideal candidate for such extensive testing.

Airbus aims to install a hydrogen-powered gas turbine engine between the two rear doors on the A380 test aircraft. Liquid hydrogen storage tanks will be placed in the main cabin, and the engine will be fed through internal supply lines. Airbus is developing a test distribution system for liquid hydrogen to manage the supply at various flight conditions.

The system also enables pilots and test engineers to monitor and modify different parameters to achieve optimum power. With the ZEROe project, Airbus aims to scale the hydrogen fuel cell technology to power a 100-passenger aircraft for a range of up to 1,000 NM (1,150 miles/1,850 km).

In July 2020, TU-Delft and KLM showcased a conceptual Flying V aircraft design that could be based on hydrogen technology. The Flying V aircraft is a step away from the traditional tube-like fuselage and incorporates a blended-wing design to transport 300 passengers in the future.

Two hydrogen-powered turbofan engines on the rear of the aircraft provide power. Alternatively, the aircraft could be powered by hydrogen fuel cells that burn liquid hydrogen stored in specialized tanks.

Could hydrogen be a better alternative to jet fuel? Considering the efficiency of battery-powered electric motors and the advantages of liquid hydrogen, hydrogen technology does seem promising.

However, the challenges that come with the use of hydrogen for power are immense. Ongoing advancements in hydrogen technology infrastructure are expected to guide the feasibility of hydrogen-powered aircraft.

COP15

What campaigners want to see in UN nature deal


Issam AHMED, AFP
Sat, December 17, 2022 


As high-stakes UN biodiversity talks in Montreal draw to a close, delegates will be presented Sunday with a draft deal to safeguard the planet's ecosystems and species by 2030.

Will it amount to the "peace pact with nature" that UN chief Antonio Guterres said the world desperately needs? Campaigners say the devil lies in the details. Here's what they're looking out for:

- '30 by 30' -

The cornerstone of the agreement is the so-called 30 by 30 goal -- a pledge to protect 30 percent of the world's land and seas by 2030.

Currently, only about 17 percent of land and seven percent of oceans are protected.

And some experts say 30 percent is a low aim, insisting that protecting 50 percent would be better.

So far, more than 100 countries have publicly pledged support for the 30 by 30 target, and observers say it has received broad support among negotiators.

"For COP15 to be a success, we need to hold the line on our existing level of ambition," Alfred DeGemmis, of the Wildlife Conservation Society, told AFP.

Brian O'Donnell of the Campaign for Nature added it was key that the text applies to oceans, as well as land, which had been in doubt.

- Indigenous rights -

The question of Indigenous rights will be crucial.

About 80 percent of the Earth's remaining biodiverse land is currently managed by Indigenous people, and it's broadly recognized that biodiversity is better respected on Indigenous territory.

Many activists want to make sure their rights are not trampled in the name of conservation -- previous efforts to safeguard land have seen Indigenous communities marginalized or displaced in what has been dubbed "green colonialism."

Advocates say therefore these rights have to be adequately addressed throughout the text, including within the 30 by 30 pledge, so that Indigenous people are not subject to mass evictions.

Failure on this front would be a "complete red line for us," said O'Donnell.

"We are the ones doing the work. We protect biodiversity. You won't replace us. We won't let you," said Valentin Engobo, leader of the Lokolama community in the Congo Basin, which protects the world's largest tropical peatland.

"You can be our partners, if you want. But you cannot push us out."

- Loopholes matter -

As a general principle, it is vital that the targets envisioned in the text aren't significantly weakened through loopholes that will weaken actual implementation, said Georgina Chandler of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

For example, during some plenary sessions, some ministers had suggested stripping out language about numerical targets for ecosystem restoration.

"Keeping those measurable elements...and making sure that they are ambitious, is really, really important," said Chandler.

Other things she'll be watching include whether there will be a commitment to halve pesticide use, and whether businesses will be mandated to assess and report on the biodiversity impacts.

- Finance -

As ever, money remains a difficult question.

Developing countries say developed nations grew rich by exploiting their resources and the South should be paid to preserve its ecosystems.

Several countries have announced new commitments either at the COP or recently, with Europe emerging as a key leader. The European Union has committed seven billion euros ($7.4 billion) for the period until 2027, double its prior pledge.

But Brazil has led a charge by developing countries for far more, proposing flows of $100 billion annually, compared to the roughly $10 billion at present.

Developing countries are also seeking a new funding mechanism, as a signal of the rich world's commitment to this goal.

Whether international aid is delivered via a new fund, an existing mechanism called the Global Environment Facility (GEF), or a halfway solution involving a new "trust fund" within the GEF is still up for debate.

bur-ia/rlp/md

Activists, experts say there's still hope for a breakthrough at COP15

Sat, December 17, 2022 

Members of the Global Youth Biodiversity Network demonstrate in the halls of the convention centre at the COP15 UN conference on biodiversity in Montreal on Friday, December 16, 2022. 

(Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press - image credit)

Between claims that negotiations are moving far too slowly and a mid-week walkout by a group of developing nations, there are ample reasons to worry that the world won't come to an agreement to protect biodiversity at COP15 in Montreal.

But the scientists, activists and political leaders attending the international conference this week all said they continue to have hope for the talks — and for the planet.

Kenyan scientist David Obura has seen firsthand how changing ocean temperatures bleached previously pristine coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean. He also saw those reefs rebound after Pacific Islanders made them a protected area.

"Biodiversity loss is just a complicated way to say that the nature around us is declining," he said.

Obura told CBC Radio's The House that when it comes to some of the targets the conference aims to achieve, negotiators have to take into account the particular circumstances countries face.

Take the call for a "30 by 30" target of protecting 30 per cent of the world's land and marine areas by 2030. Obura said that's intended as a global target — but it can't mean that all individual countries must protect 30 per cent of their territory.

Africa has a growing population and much of the continent is arid and not very productive agriculturally, he said. That makes it very hard for many African nations to turn large swaths of territory into protected areas, he added.

Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press

At the same time, he said, wealthy nations have made a lot of money from extracting resources from Asia and Africa — commercial activity that has played a large role in biodiversity decline.

"If you want us now to be involved in protecting what's remaining, which means giving up certain things on our side, show us the money. It's as simple as that," he said.

Ecuadorian activist Alicia Guzmán León points out that her country leads the chronic malnutrition index. The Amazon program director for Stand.earth said it's not realistic for wealthy countries to demand that countries like hers prioritize creating and paying for new protected areas.

In the early hours of Wednesday, a group of developing nations — frustrated over how the discussions were progressing — walked out of the talks.

Still, both Guzmán León and Obura said they remain hopeful.

"Each year that we have, we can turn towards a better trajectory," said Obura. "We just should have done it 10 or 20 years ago or 30 years ago.

"I'm not an optimist or pessimist, just a realist. I have a kid. So, you know, we have to try and make it work."

Walkout prompts wealthy countries to put up more money

Canadian Tim Hodges is a veteran of these major gatherings. He co-chaired the last big negotiation under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

"It's really about developed countries versus developing countries," said Hodges, describing the major tensions underlying the current talks.

"While we're talking about biodiversity, really the dynamic below the surface is about power, is about influence, it's about money and it's about benefits."

He cautioned that the mid-week walkout shouldn't be seen as a sign talks will fail.

The walkout led wealthier countries to put more money on the table, U.K.'s Minister for International Environment and Climate Zac Goldsmith told CBC's The Current.

Goldsmith described it as "almost a doubling of previous commitments."

Canada, which already had announced $350 million to support biodiversity projects in developing countries at the start of the conference, announced an additional $255 million on Friday.

Pledging additional funds can be a difficult choice for some wealthier countries, said Jochen Flasbarth, the state secretary for Germany's Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development.

While states from around the world are finally recognizing the need for action on biodiversity preservation, this year's COP comes at a moment when rich countries are struggling with a rash of crises that have drawn resources from their reserves.

"In the so-called donor countries, budgets are highly under pressure. We are in an extremely difficult world situation, with multiple crises after COVID [and] now the Russian war against Ukraine. All of this affects countries, and all of this needs the solidarity of the north," he said.

"So it's not a fortunate situation to solve this, but still we have to do it."

Flasbarth also stressed that money is only part of the solution.

"I think we should also look at what do we want to achieve in the substance. For example, the way we are doing agriculture and forestry and fisheries around the world is not sustainable and it's affecting biodiversity," he said.

"Yes, we need some money to transform these sectors into more sustainable and biodiversity-friendly practices, but it's also about what countries can do at home to regulate this. It's not all about money."

Hodges said that what matters isn't simply getting to a deal, but getting to a deal that works.

"The question for me is, do we actually get an agreement that's full of substance and real commitment that makes countries and people behave differently and get a different record?" he said. "Or were you just going to make empty promises and not meet those commitments?"

 Protests by Iranian oil workers over wages

The nationwide protests were triggered by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iran’s Kurdish region

Reuters   |   London   |   Published 18.12.22

---

Social media posts on Saturday purported to show a group of protesting oil workers in southern Iran demanding higher wages and retirement bonuses.

The reported oil workers’ protests, which Reuters could not verify, come amid an uprising across Iran, the boldest challenge to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. The nationwide protests were triggered by the Sept. 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iran’s Kurdish region, for wearing “inappropriate attire”.

Iran’s oil ministry was not immediately available to comment. The activist HRANA news agency said on Saturday that a group of oil workers protested outside the Pars Oil and Petrochemical Company in Asaluyeh in the southern Bushehr Province on the Gulf coast.

It said in addition to wage increases and pension bonuses, the removal of high-income taxes and salary caps, and improved welfare services and health conditions were among the protesters’ demands.

A combination of mass protests and strikes by oil workers and Bazaar merchants helped to sweep the clergy to power in the Iranian revolution four decades ago.  Reuters could not immediately verify any of the videos or social media accounts.

Iran arrests actress Taraneh Alidoosti for denouncing execution over protests


By —Associated Press

World Dec 17, 2022 

CAIRO (AP) — Iranian authorities arrested one of the country’s most renowned actresses Saturday on charges of spreading falsehoods about nationwide protests that grip the country, state media said.

The report by IRNA said Taraneh Alidoosti, star of the Oscar-winning movie “The Salesman,” was detained a week after she made a post on Instagram expressing solidarity with the first man recently executed for crimes allegedly committed during the protests.

The announcement is the latest in a series of celebrity arrests, that have included footballers, actors and influencers, in response to their open display of support for anti-government demonstrations now in their third month.

According to the report published on the state media’s official Telegram channel, Alidoosti was arrested because she did not provide ’’any documents in line with her claims.″

It said that several other Iranian celebrities had also ″been summoned by the judiciary body over publishing provocative content,″ and that some had been arrested. It provided no further details.

In her post, the 38-year-old actress said: ”His name was Mohsen Shekari. Every international organization who is watching this bloodshed and not taking action, is a disgrace to humanity.”

Shekari was executed Dec. 9 after being charged by an Iranian court with blocking a street in Tehran and attacking a member of the country’s security forces with a machete.

In November, Hengameh Ghaziani and Katayoun Riahi, two other famous Iranian actresses, were arrested by authorities for expressing solidarity with protesters on social media. Voria Ghafouri, an Iranian soccer player, was also arrested last month for ‘’insulting the national soccer team and propagandizing against the government.” All three have been released.

Since September, Alidoosti has openly expressed solidarity with protesters in at least three posts on Instagram. Her account, which had some 8 million followers, has been suspended.

Last Week, Iran executed a second prisoner, Majidreza Rahnavard, in connection with the protests. Rahnavard’s body was left hanging from a construction crane as a gruesome warning to others. Iranian authorities alleged Rahnavard stabbed two members of its paramilitary force.

Both Shekari and Rahnavard were executed less than a month after they were charged, underscoring the speed at which Iran now carries out death sentences imposed for alleged crimes related to the demonstrations. Activists say at least a dozen people have been sentenced to death in closed-door hearings. Iran is one of the one the world’s top executioners.

Iran has been rocked by protests since the Sept. 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died after being detained by the morality police. The protests have since morphed into one of the most serious challenges to Iran’s theocracy installed by the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Alidoosti had previously criticised the Iranian government and its police force before this year’s protests.

In June 2020, she was given a suspended five-month prison sentence after she criticized the police on Twitter in 2018 for assaulting a woman who had removed her headscarf.

At least 495 people have been killed in the demonstrations amid a harsh security crackdown, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that has been monitoring the protests since they began. Over 18,200 people have been detained by authorities.

Other well-known movies Alidoosti has starred in include “The Beautiful City” and “About Elly.”

Cast member Taraneh Alidoosti attends a news conference for the film "Forushande" (The Salesman) in competition at the 69th Cannes Film Festival in Cannes, France, May 21, 2016. Photo by Regis Duvignau/REUTERS

By Aamer Madhani, Zeke Miller, Associated Press
Iran announces execution of prisoner arrested in protests

By Jon Gambrell, Associated Press
Women go without hijabs as confusion grows over Iran’s dress code enforcement

By Jack Jeffrey, Associated Press
Future of Iran’s morality police unclear after official said force was ‘closed’

By Jack Jeffrey, Associated Press

Iran arrests outspoken player Voria Ghafouri amid World Cup scrutiny