It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Saturday, January 07, 2023
Mexico’s Leading Presidential Hopeful Would Tighten State Grip on Power Sector
Nacha Cattan and Maya Averbuch Thu, January 5, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s leading presidential hopeful Claudia Sheinbaum, who sees herself as the natural successor to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, wants to accomplish what even her mentor wasn’t able to: a constitutional change that would cement state control over the power sector.
The mayor of Mexico City outlined her plan to strengthen the ailing electricity utility owned by the state during an interview last week. The issue gained renewed urgency, she said, after the energy crisis seen in Europe, “where too much privatization has generated a diverse set of problems.”
“A state electricity industry strengthens the electric system, and at the same time the private sector can participate,” limited to a 46% share of the market, Sheinbaum said at City Hall. “If we manage to have a balance, based on clear agreements, then the system can grow in the future to meet all the needs of the country and strengthen renewable sources of energy.”
AMLO, as the Mexican president is known, has tried to restore state control over the energy sector, but has faced stiff opposition from lawmakers who say his plan would harm competition and hinder Mexico’s ability to meet environmental commitments. One of his electricity bills was blocked in congress, and another was approved but remains caught up in court cases. He has still managed to boost the state’s dominance of the sector through changes to regulation and negotiation of permits, helping set off a trade dispute with the US and Canada.
But Sheinbaum promised that, if elected president in June 2024 with a strong congressional base, she would seek to amend the constitution to ensure that state utility Comision Federal de Electricidad controls at least 54% of the electricity market — AMLO’s stated goal. The company known as CFE has said in the past that it generates about half of Mexico’s electricity, and Lopez Obrador worries it could quickly lose market share if its preponderance over private companies isn’t guaranteed in the constitution.
“It’s necessary to strengthen CFE and be clear about what kinds of private investments are allowed,” Sheinbaum said.
By giving preference to its state-owned power generator, Mexico puts at risk investments in renewable energy projects from foreign companies including Spain’s Iberdrola SA and Acciona Energia SA, as well as France’s EDF and Engie SA, critics say.
To be sure, there’s no guarantee that Lopez Obrador’s successor, if elected, would have a larger congressional support than he currently has. Sheinbaum is polling far ahead of any potential candidate from opposition parties but only slightly ahead of other names the president has cited as his potential torch bearers. And while the mayor is seen by people close to the president as his top pick, AMLO himself has denied having made a choice. It’s up to the ruling Morena party to decide its candidate through a survey this year.
Green Initiatives
The mayor’s opinions on energy and the economy hew closely to those of AMLO, but at the same time she expresses more interest in environmental projects and a future transition out of fossil fuels.
Sheinbaum, 60, said she’d like to bring her climate-friendly projects from the city, such as electrifying part of the public transportation system, to a national scale. She wants to boost public investment in research and development for green initiatives. While her climate focus would represent a shift from AMLO, critics of the current administration have long said that giving preference to CFE, which has aging hydroelectric infrastructure and slow-growing solar projects, would discourage private green investments.
She also avoided saying whether she would raise taxes, something AMLO has vowed never to do. That topic, she said, needs to be discussed with business leaders so that it isn’t a “topic of conflict but rather consensus.
On most other matters, however, Sheinbaum’s and AMLO’s views are in sync.
She would respect the central bank’s autonomy, but concurs with the president that the board should pay more attention to economic growth and not just inflation. In the same vein, she wants public policy to focus less on expanding gross domestic product and more on boosting development and well-being.
She would substantially raise the minimum wage each year, as the president has done, and has promised to continue the current administration’s fiscal austerity.
Read More: AMLO Says He’d Like Mexico to Cut Interest Rates to Boost Growth
The mayor declined to say how her administration would significantly differ from AMLO’s, arguing that it’s not the time for her to be making such distinctions since the president still has almost two years left in office.
Sheinbaum served as the capital’s environment minister when AMLO became mayor in 2000, and later headed the city’s populous Tlalpan district. She was part of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that won the Nobel Prize in 2007.
She thinks she’s well positioned to become Mexico’s next president because it’s time for a female leader to take on the job.
“There are people who want a female president and our movement is doing well in the polls,” she said. “So there’s a really good chance this will happen.”
--With assistance from Amy Stillman.
(Update with trade disputes in fourth, IPCC Nobel Peace Prize in 16th paragraph)
Mexican scientists sound alarm over plan to build railway throughpristine jungles
REUTERS
Parts of Mexico's remote southern jungles have barely changed since the time of the ancient Maya.
In the eyes of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a railway his government is building -- known as the Tren Maya -- will bring modern connectivity to areas for generations deprived of significant economic benefits.
But the railway and its hasty construction also critically endanger pristine wilderness and ancient cave systems beneath the jungle floor, droves of scientists and environmental activists said.
PHOTO: A house stands on the edge of forest which has been cleared for construction of section 5 of the new Mayan Train route, in Solidaridad, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 6, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
The railway "is splitting the jungle in half," said Ismael Lara, a guide who takes tourists to a cave that shelters millions of bats near the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. Lara fears the train, due to pass close by, will disrupt wildlife routes and attract too much development to fragile ecosystems.
Over almost a year, Reuters photographed construction at points along the full length of the planned rail track, documenting the evolution of the flagship project that Lopez Obrador has pledged to finish by the end of 2023.
PHOTO: Workers clear trees for the construction of section 4 of the new Mayan Train route, near Nuevo Xcan, Chemax, Mexico, March 3, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
The 910 miles of rail are set to carry diesel and electric trains through the Yucatan Peninsula and connect Mexico's top tourist destination Cancun to the ancient Mayan temples of Chichen Itza and Palenque.
The railway has deeply divided Mexicans and the controversies surrounding the construction exemplify struggles developing countries across the globe face to balance economic progress with environmental responsibility.
PHOTO: A bulldozer clears jungle for the construction of section 4 of the new Mayan Train route, near Nuevo Xcan, Chemax, Yucatan, Mexico, March 3, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
FONATUR, Mexico's tourism agency charged with the project, has said the railway will lift more than a million people out of poverty and could create up to 715,000 new jobs by 2030.
Construction costs are seen at up to $20 billion, Lopez Obrador said in July.
But with the project already billions of dollars over budget and behind schedule, scientists and activists said the government cut corners in its environmental risk assessments in a bid to complete it while Lopez Obrador is still in office.
PHOTO: A tree is marked with a red arrow at the construction site of section 5 of the new Mayan Train route, in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, Mexico April 23, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Earlier this month, United Nations experts warned the railway's status as a national security project allowed the government to side-step usual environmental safeguards, and called on the government to protect the environment in line with global standards.
FONATUR defended the speed with which the studies were produced. "Years are not required, expertise, knowledge and integration capacity are required," it said in response to questions from Reuters. It declined to comment on the U.N. statement.
PHOTO: Ismael Lara, a tour guide, shows tourists a map of the area before visiting a bat cave located in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve close to where section 7 of the new Mayan train route is being built, in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico November 8, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Cenotes
The Tren Maya route cuts a swathe up to 46 feet wide through some of the world's most unique ecosystems, bringing the modern world closer to vulnerable species such as jaguars and bats.
It will pass above a system of thousands of subterranean caves carved out from the region's soft limestone bedrock by water over millions of years.
Crystalline pools known as cenotes punctuate the Yucatan Peninsula, where the limestone surface has fallen in to expose the groundwater. The world's longest known underground river passes through the caves, which have also been the site of discoveries such as ancient human fossils and Maya artifacts like a canoe estimated to be more than 1,000 years old.
PHOTO: Gumersindo Martinez, 68, walks next to an unfinished house after his house was demolished to build section 2 of the new Mayan Train route, in Tenabo, Campeche, Mexico, May 14, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
If built badly, the railway risks breaking through the fragile ground, including into yet-to-be explored caves below, said Emiliano Monroy-Rios, a Mexican geochemist with Northwestern University who has extensively studied the area's caves and cenotes.
Diesel, he added, could also leak into the network of subterranean pools and rivers, the main source of fresh water on the peninsula.
With less than 20% of the subterranean system believed to have been mapped, according to several scientists interviewed by Reuters, such damage could limit important geological discoveries.
PHOTO: Women prepare food during celebrations for The Faithful Departed in the town of Buena Vista close to where the new Mayan train route is being built, in Bacalar, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 8, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
The government's environmental impact study for Section 5, the most controversial stretch, said environmental impacts are "insignificant" and have been adequately mitigated. The study said the risk of collapse was taken into account in the engineering of the tracks, and that the area will be observed through a prevention program.
Dozens of scientists disagree, writing in open letters that the assessments are riddled with problems, including outdated data, the omission of recently discovered caves and a lack of input from local hydrology experts.
PHOTO: David Ku, 3, plays in a hammock during celebrations for The Faithful Departed in the town of Buena Vista close to where the new Mayan train route is being built, in Bacalar, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 8, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
"They don't want to recognize the fragility of the land," said Fernanda Lases, a Merida-based scientist with the National Autonomous University of Mexico, calling the problems identified "highly worrisome."
The names of the 70 experts who participated in the government study were redacted from the publication.
PHOTO: Women wearing traditional dresses order food, close to where section 2 of the new Mayan Train route is being built, in Tenabo, Campeche, Mexico, May 13, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
One piece of research used by the government to support its conclusions was taken from a blog by Monroy-Rios, who said he was never contacted by the authors of the report. His research highlights the need for extensive surveillance and monitoring for any infrastructure project in the region. He said this has not happened.
"I guess their conclusions were pre-formatted," Monroy-Rios said. "They want to do it fast and that's part of the problem. There's no time for the proper exploration."
PHOTO: Environmental activist Cristina Nolasco, 32, explores the Yorogana cave, which she says has been affected by the construction of the new Mayan Train route, in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 6, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
An expert who participated in the reports and spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the work had been done quickly.
"There was pressure, especially due to delivery times," the expert said.
The expert expressed concern the government would not properly mitigate risks experts had highlighted in the government's impact studies or dedicate the necessary resources to the train's maintenance.
PHOTO: Environmental activist Cristina Nolasco, 32, explores the Yorogana cave which she says has been affected by the construction of the new Mayan Train route, in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 5, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
FONATUR said the project would have resources and follow-up care in the future, including programs established for environmental protection.
"The Mayan Train project is of course safe, monitored and regulated by the environmental authorities as has happened up to now," the agency told Reuters.
Inecol, Mexico's ecology institute, which produced the reports, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. A spokesman for Lopez Obrador did not respond to a request for comment.
PHOTO: A protestor holds a sign as activists and locals protest the environmental impact of the new Mayan Train route, outside the Yorogana cave in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 5, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Forgotten southeast
Despite the concerns about the railway, it has the support of many in villages that for decades have felt largely forgotten in national development plans.
In Xkuncheil, a small dusty town of about 140 people on Section 2 of the train that runs through Campeche state, Luz Elba Damas Jimenez, 69, owns a small store selling soda and snacks near the tracks. Many of her neighbors, especially the young men, are working on the project, she said. She also has more customers now.
PHOTO: Rosario Jimenez stands in front of her new house after being relocated due to the construction of section 1 of the new Mayan Train route, in the town of Haro, Escarcega, Campeche, Mexico, May 12, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
"The government is working on good things for the country. ... Sometimes there just isn't work in these small towns, but now they have jobs," she said. "The truth is that we have benefited."
Martha Rosa Rosado, who was offered a government payout to move when an earlier plan for the tracks was set to go through her home in Campeche's Camino Real neighborhood, echoed those sentiments.
"No government ever remembers the southeast. Everything goes to the north, and the southeast is forgotten," she said as she grilled pork outside her home of 40 years.
PHOTO: Workers drive machinery during construction of section 4 the new Mayan Train route, near Uayma, Yucatan, Mexico, May 14, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Some 280 miles away, in Playa del Carmen, near the beach resorts bustling with tourists, a group of volunteers -- clad in helmets and head lamps -- descend into the caves at weekends to monitor their condition.
Roberto Rojo, a biologist in the group, said the train will put the entire ecosystem above and below ground at risk.
PHOTO: A man on a motorcycle crosses the old train tracks where section 3 of the new Mayan Train route was planned to be built before protests moved construction to the outskirts of the city, in Chochola, Yucatan, Mexico, May 16, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
"They are doing studies now that needed to be done at least four years ago," Rojo said inside one cave directly below where the train is due to pass.
Behind him, tree roots descend from the ceiling of the cave like coarse rope, stretching down to be quenched by the water pooled at his feet.
"This is our life. We are putting in risk and in danger the stability of this ecosystem," he said.
PHOTO: Biologist Roberto Rojo, 46, prepares to show activists and locals the Yorogana cave, which he says has been affected by the construction of the new Mayan Train route, in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, Mexico, November 5, 2022. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
Scientists stumble upon tiny, 1-foot snake in rainforest — and discover a new species
Photo from Ortega-Andrade, et al. via the European Journal of Taxonomy
Scientists in the rainforest of Ecuador stumbled upon a tiny snake — and discovered a new species, according to a study.
The scientists were studying snakes when they found a number of “unique” specimens that did not fit in an existing species classification, according to the study published in the European Journal of Taxonomy on Dec. 29.
The snakes were small — only growing about 1-foot long — and had similar coloring to boa constrictors, the study explained. Photos taken by AFP on Jan. 6 show the tan snake’s speckled with black spots, some with faded coloring.
Researchers classified the animal as a type of dwarf boa snake and named it Tropidophis cacuangoae.
The study is based on two specimens collected in the cloud forest of northeastern Ecuador. Notably, x-rays of the male dwarf boa showed “pelvic remnants,” scientists said.
The snake is likely native to Ecuador and was given a name to match, scientists said.
The animal was named after Dolores Caucango, an indigenous Ecuadorian woman known for her work as a feminist and indigenous rights activist, the study said. Caucango founded the Ecuadorian Indigenous Federation and the first bilingual schools in Ecuador, teaching students in Spanish and Quechua.
Researchers called for the new species to be granted “threatened species status” due to its limited geographic range. The study also noted further research was needed to assess the conservation needs and current population status of the newly identified dwarf boa.
Amateur archaeologist uncovers 20,000-year-old ‘writing’ system
Story by By JERUSALEM POST STAFF • Yesterday
An amateur archaeologist found a previously unknown "writing" system used to make a lunar calendar by hunter-gatherers some 20,000 years ago during the Ice Age.
The researcher, Ben Bacon, found that cave drawings were used to record details about the timing of animal reproductive cycles.
Bacon, as well as a professor from University College London and two others from Durham University, published his findings in a peer-reviewed study in the Cambridge Archaeological Journal on Thursday.
The writing system is believed to have been developed at least 10,000 years before other comparable systems.
After spending numerous hours researching what he called a "proto-writing" system, Bacon showed his research to the team of academics and they encouraged him to continue his studies, according to The Guardian.
“The results show that ice age hunter-gatherers were the first to use a systemic calendar and marks to record information about major ecological events within that calendar.”Prof. Paul Pettitt, Durham University archaeologist
“The results show that ice age hunter-gatherers were the first to use a systemic calendar and marks to record information about major ecological events within that calendar,” said Prof. Paul Pettitt, an archaeologist at Durham University and member of the research team.
“We’re able to show that these people – who left a legacy of spectacular art in the caves of Lascaux and Altamira – also left a record of early timekeeping that would eventually become commonplace among our species,” Pettitt added.
The research process
In his research, Bacon attempted to decode sequences of dots and other markings found in over 600 images on cave walls across Europe by searching for patterns in cave drawings and previous findings.
The researchers found from the birth cycles of present-day animals that the number of markings related to Ice Age animals was a lunar record of their mating.
The team did this by "testing ecologically grounded hypotheses about prey behavior using a database of such depiction-associated sequences."
"We reason that investigating the numbers of signs associated with images and the position of within line/dot sequences provide useful indicators of their meaning, based on the uncontroversial assumption that dots/lines represent numbers," the researchers added, noting that the proto-writing system was used over a large geographical area for tens of thousands of years.
SELF INFLICTED WOUND
Amazon layoff signals more pain for tech sector as recession fears mount
Thu, January 5, 2023 By Nivedita Balu
(Reuters) - The massive job cuts by Amazon.com Inc, one of the biggest private employers in the United States, show the wave of layoff sweeping through the tech sector could stretch into 2023 as companies rush to cut costs, analysts said on Thursday.
As a demand boom during the pandemic rapidly turns into bust, tech companies shed more than 150,000 workers in 2022, according to tracking site Layoffs.fyi, a number that is growing as growth in the world's biggest economies start to slow.
The layoffs brought back memories of the dot-com bubble at the start of the century and the 2008 financial crisis when tech companies cut jobs in thousands to reduce spending.
"They're trying to protect themselves so that they're not caught in the 2008-2009 cycle that we had," said Greg Selker, managing director at executive search firm Stanton Chase.
During the global pandemic, companies ramped up hiring only to reverse course in 2022, with the tech sector leading the job cuts, which according to executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc, surged 649% from 2021.
"It is also giving them an advantage to frankly be more responsible for some of the aggressive hiring that occurred during the pandemic," Selker said.
The drop in demand amid a steep rise in borrowing costs has led several executives from the sector to admit they hired in excess during the COVID-19 crisis.
Meta Platforms Inc axed 11,000 jobs last year, with Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg saying he had wrongly expected that the pandemic boom would keep on going.
Tech giants Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet have already hinted at cost-cuts, including layoffs.
Salesforce Inc top boss Marc Benioff said on Wednesday the enterprise software company had hired "too many people" as he announced plans to cut 10% of the jobs.
For Amazon, growth in its cloud unit that brings most of its profit has slowed as businesses cut back spending, while its online retail unit is reeling from strained consumer budgets due to rising prices.
"Some of us will remember 2000 to 2003 after a massive bubble fed by cheap money, high investor expectations and plentiful cash," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
"Whether we see a repetition or not will be very interesting as there is a danger of that."
(Reporting by Nivedita Balu, Yuvraj Malik and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
Geothermal energy poised for boom, as U.S. looks to follow Iceland’s lead
Some experts believe geothermal development could help reduce American emissions and help avert catastrophic climate change.
LONG READ
Ben Adler ·Senior Editor Sat, January 7, 2023 The Climeworks AG Orca direct air capture and storage facility, right, and Hellisheidi geothermal power plant, left, in Hellisheidi, Iceland, in September 2021.
(Arnaldur Halldorsson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The small island nation of Iceland is known among environmentalists for its low greenhouse emissions — per capita, roughly one-third of those of the United States — thanks in part to its reliance on clean, geothermal energy derived from the more than 30 active volcanic systems that also power its famous hot springs.
Yet, in terms of total geothermal energy output, the U.S. is actually the world’s single biggest generator of geothermal energy — and some experts believe further development of that sector, including digging deep into the Earth, could reduce American emissions and help avert catastrophic climate change.
“It just really seems as though geothermal has an upward trajectory at the moment, in terms of innovation, funding, interest at all levels of business, but also the government,” Kelly Blake, president of the board of directors at Geothermal Rising, a geothermal-focused trade association, told Politico earlier this week.
“We’re kind of on the cusp of moving into the cost-effective range [for geothermal], just like we did with solar, over the next 20 years,” Roland Horne, a professor of earth sciences at Stanford University, told Yahoo News.
At present, geothermal energy, which is derived by using steam heat from underground to generate power, accounts for less than 1% of the U.S. electricity portfolio. Unlike wind and solar energy, which do not produce as much energy in certain conditions, geothermal energy is much more constant. Yet the cost of tapping it can be expensive in places that require extensive digging. In 2021, a kilowatt hour of electricity generated by geothermal cost an average of $3,991 in G20 countries, compared to $857 for utility-scale solar power and $1,325 for on-shore wind. A geothermal plant outside Myvatn, Iceland, in on April 2017. (Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images)
Recent technological advances, such as “enhanced geothermal systems,” also known as EGS in the industry jargon, may solve that problem, however. Traditionally, geothermal has only been economical in places like Iceland, where heat and water are close to the Earth’s surface. In an EGS, much as in a fracking well, fluid is injected deep underground, causing fractures to open in the rock, which allows hot fluid to rise from far below.
That’s why in June, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a $165 million investment in geothermal energy research and deployment, and the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law included $84 million for research into enhanced geothermal demonstration projects.
The private sector is also taking tentative steps into geothermal energy. A slew of geothermal energy startups have each raised millions of dollars in capital. Last month, the oil and gas giant Chevron partnered its Chevron New Energies with Sweden’s Baseload Capital to develop geothermal projects in the United States. In 2021, Chevron and BP invested $40 million in Eavor Technologies, a Canadian geothermal energy company. In November of that year, Hawaiian Electric, the Aloha State’s energy utility, unveiled a plan to increase its geothermal generation capacity to help meet its goal of a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
“It’s like solar: If you look at solar 20 years ago, nobody’s interested in solar because it costs too much. But as solar has grown, the cost has come down as it’s improved in scale,” Horne said. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, is greeted by Iceland's minister of foreign affairs, Gudlaugur Thor Thordarson, at a meeting of Arctic Council Ministers in Reykjavik, Iceland, on May 19, 2021. (Brynjar Gunnarsson/AP Photo)
“It’s unbelievable how geothermal has gone under the radar,” Iceland’s environment minister, Gudlaugur Thór Thórdarson, told Yahoo News. Iceland’s use of geothermal for heating and a mix of geothermal and hydropower for electricity has given it uninterrupted access to affordable heat and power, insulating its economy from the natural gas price shocks being felt by the rest of Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Now, when you see the bills [in] electricity and the gas prices go up everywhere — at least, around us — it doesn’t affect us,” he said.
“This can be done all around the world,” Thórdarson added. “You don't need to be the most active volcanic island in the world to use geothermal.”
In January 2022, a Danish company signed an agreement to develop the largest geothermal heating plant in the European Union, and Icelandic companies are currently developing geothermal heating and energy projects in other countries. Under a partnership between Iceland’s Orka Energy Holding Ehf and China’s state oil and gas company Sinopec, the 390,000-person Chinese county of Xiong is being converted to rely solely on geothermal for residential heating.
Wells roughly 1,500 to 1,900 meters (4,900 to 6,200 feet) deep bring up water at 70 degrees Celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit) that is used to heat homes. In an area where families previously burned coal for heat, the result has been a dramatic cut in carbon emissions and conventional air pollutants like smog. Orka and the Icelandic firm Mannvit are also building power plants that will produce electricity from geothermal in countries including Sloveniaand Hungary.
“And we can do it in a lot of other places,” Thórdarson said. “It’s not very complicated. It’s just drilling for hot water.” The Reykjanes geothermal power station is pictured on March 23, 2017, in Reykjanes, at the southwestern tip of Iceland. (Halldor Kolbeins/AFP via Getty Images)
Geothermal accounts for 6% of the electricity produced in California and 10% in Nevada. Hawaii, Utah, Oregon and Idaho have geothermal plants as well. Like Iceland, where 27% of the electricity and heating in 90% of homes comes from geothermal, these western states have volcanic activity that brings heat close to the Earth’s surface. That makes geothermal more economically viable than in the eastern half of the U.S., where heat tends to be buried deeper underground.
“The reason we have [geothermal] in the western states, and the reason they have it in Iceland, is basically geological advantage,” Horne said. “If you go to New York state, you don’t find that sort of recent volcanic activity, so to get to higher temperatures, you’ve got to drill a lot deeper, and that, of course, is expensive.”
Skeptics of geothermal’s potential note the technological challenges to drilling deeper.
“You have to remove all the rock you’ve cut from the hole, which gets harder and harder as the hole gets deeper,” writes Alice Friedemann, author of “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy,” on her website, Energy Skeptic. “The deeper you go, the hotter it gets, and the more expensive the drilling equipment gets, using special metallurgy.” The Strokkur geyser in the Haukadalur geothermal park in Reykjavik, Oct. 21, 2022. (Jorge Mantilla/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Some energy companies hope to facilitate deeper drilling through EGS, which offers the possibility of a geothermal boom similar to the way fracking has transformed oil and gas extraction. The Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office, which supports EGS research and demonstration projects, calls EGS “the next frontier for renewable energy deployment.”
“There have been more than 40 projects worldwide of so-called ‘enhanced geothermal systems,’” Horne said. “There’s even been some commercial ones in Germany and France, but at the moment, the cost is higher than other resources, which is what’s held it back.”
Horne expects that over the next decade or so, increased research and development in EGS will bring the cost down enough to make geothermal energy economically competitive.
“[Geothermal] is sort of the unwanted stepchild of renewable energy,” Geoffrey Garrison, vice president and senior geochemist at AltaRock Energy, a geothermal energy company, told Yahoo News. “The marginal cost of electricity from geothermal is more than solar and wind. Solar’s gotten so cheap, and wind has gotten so cheap, that when the power utilities look to renewables, those are the ones they go to.”
Since wind and solar are intermittent power sources, they need to be complemented with “peaker plants,” which burn coal or gas to even out the ups and downs in solar or wind production. Geothermal doesn’t have that problem. An array of solar panels and windmills in Kern County, an hour north of Los Angeles, on Nov. 15, 2022, near Mojave, Calif. (George Rose/Getty Images)
Garrison is working on making geothermal energy cost-competitive by finding cheaper ways of drilling deeper, where the heat is greater and would deliver more electricity production. Altarock is building a demonstration project at the Newberry Volcano in Oregon, to bring up water of more than 400 degrees Centigrade from 14,000 feet below ground. At 374 degrees Centigrade, water reaches a state known as “supercritical,” at which it flows with the ease of gas but carries the energy density of a liquid, so it would provide far more bang for the buck when piped to the surface.
“You couple that with the fact that, at the surface, power plants work much more efficiently at higher temperatures,” Garrison said. “So a power plant using an input of 400C is going to be twice as efficient as 200C water.”
Bringing up water that hot in states like New York would require going 20,000 to 30,000 feet below ground. So, with support from DOE, AltaRock is currently working in a laboratory with a company called Quaise Energy on using millimeter wave technology — essentially a heat ray — to vaporize rock.
Whether anything that futuristic pans out, experts and industry observers say the U.S. geothermal energy industry may be on the cusp of its own, fracking-like boom.
Still, even enhanced geothermal could be limited in scope. The DOE estimates that there is potentially 40 times as much economically viable geothermal capacity as is currently generated in the continental U.S. But if that were all developed, it would still represent only 10% of current U.S. electricity capacity. The John L. Featherstone Hudson Ranch Power 1 geothermal facility produces electrical power from underground volcanic-heated steam, on May 10, 2021, near Calipatria, Calif. (George Rose/Getty Images)
Skeptics point out that enhanced geothermal systems will have plenty of technical obstacles. Friedemann’s list includes, among other things, water escaping into the rock cracks, the need for materials that can withstand incredibly high temperatures, and the fact that new techniques that work in one area may not apply everywhere, given the variability in geology around the country.
Then there are the potential political and economic roadblocks, such as objections of nearby residents who — like those who have sometimes blocked fracked gas wells — may worry about chemical exposure and earthquakes that could be triggered by injecting liquid into the Earth. There are also steep costs that utilities would have to bear, such as bringing transmission lines to the sites of future geothermal power plants and the fact that a water-intensive process may not be feasible in areas with water scarcity.
“The depth to be drilled down to is so deep that it is likely this technology will always be too expensive and use more energy to drill than obtained,” Friedemann concludes.
Nonetheless, oil and gas companies are increasingly interested. “Baker Hughes, one of the largest drilling companies in the world, is expanding its geothermal business and has formed a partnership with Continental Resources and Chesapeake Energy — two giants in the independent oil and gas sector — to test whether they can profitably turn spent natural gas wells into geothermal facilities,” Politico recently reported. A natural gas flare stack at an oil well in Midland, Texas, on April 4, 2022. (Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
It makes sense, geothermal industry leaders say, because oil and gas companies have the technology and know-how to drill deep below the ground.
“Over the last 15 years, huge numbers of wells have been drilled in the United States because of the shale revolution,” said Sarah Jewett, head of strategy at Fervo Energy, a geothermal energy company that has raised over $177 million, told Politico. “All of this technology has evolved and grown, and that can be directly applied to geothermal power.”
That’s what Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm was thinking when she implored oil executives at a December meeting of the National Petroleum Council to pivot to geothermal energy.
“Think: You drill holes, too,” Granholm said. “You go beneath the surface, you know where things are. And fracking really opens up a huge opportunity for enhanced geothermal.”
As Granholm told Yahoo News in November 2021, “The Holy Grail is to identify clean baseload power.” The search for that Holy Grail is on.
Top central banker says Fed officials screwed up on inflation because of Uber-like ‘surge pricing’ that they didn’t think was possible
Will Daniel Fri, January 6, 2023
Turns out inflation wasn’t “transitory.” Federal Reserve officials were convinced in 2021 that consumer price increases wouldn’t last, and that they needed to maintain near-zero interest rates to help the economy navigate COVID-19. But Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, now admits that was a mistake.
“Many of us—those inside the Federal Reserve and the vast majority of outside forecasters—together made the same errors in, first, being surprised when inflation surged as much as it did and, second, assuming that inflation would fall quickly. Why did we miss it?” he wrote in a Wednesday article for Medium.
Kashkari puts the blame on models that central bankers use to forecast inflation, arguing that they don’t properly account for something called “surge pricing inflation.” He used the analogy of Uber drivers’ experience on a rainy day to describe this type of inflation. Rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft offer their drivers so-called surge pricing when demand for rides spikes. Surge pricing can drastically increase the cost of a ride, thereby reducing demand and incentivizing more drivers to work and boost supply.
Kashkari argued that during the pandemic, the economy was hit with a form of surge pricing by corporations owing to a sharp rise in demand as COVID lockdowns took hold, coupled with shortages created by broken supply chains.
But unlike during surge pricing for rideshare companies, worker wages didn’t surge at the same rate. This dynamic caused inflation and corporate profits to soar, while real wages declined.
Kashkari said that the key to the Fed’s “miss” was that inflation over the past year has been driven by this surge pricing that the Fed models failed to take into account, rather than a tight labor market or changes to consumer inflation expectations—the two most common sources of rising prices during previous periods of high inflation.
“In these workhorse models, it is very difficult to generate high inflation,” he explained. “Either we need to assume a very tight labor market…or we must assume an unanchoring of inflation expectations. That’s it. From what I can tell, our models seem ill-equipped to handle a fundamentally different source of inflation, specifically, in this case, surge pricing inflation.”
Kashkari went on to say that he believed the Fed should continue raising interest rates “at least at the next few meetings” owing to its lack of ability to accurately forecast inflation. Cutting rates shouldn’t even be considered, he added, until officials are “convinced” inflation is “well on its way back down” to their 2% target rate.
“Given the experience of the 1970s, the mistake the FOMC must avoid is to cut rates prematurely and then have inflation flare back up again,” he said, referring to the Fed’s Open Market Committee, which determines interest rate levels. “That would be a costly error.”
Kashkari added that his article wasn’t meant as a criticism of fellow Fed officials, noting that he, too, was wrong about inflation last year.
“It is meant to be an honest assessment of what we missed and why we missed it in order to shed light on what we should learn going forward,” he wrote.
Twitter leak exposes 235 million email addresses from hack
The Twitter logo is seen on the awning of the building that houses the Twitter office in New York, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. Personal emails linked to 235 million Twitter accounts hacked some time ago have been exposed according to Israeli security researcher Alon Gal, Friday, Jan. 6, 2023.
(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
BARBARA ORTUTAY Fri, January 6, 2023
Personal emails linked to 235 million Twitter accounts hacked some time ago have been exposed according to Israeli security researcher Alon Gal — making millions vulnerable to having their accounts compromised or identities exposed if they have used the site anonymously to criticize oppressive governments, for instance.
Gal, who is the co-founder and chief technology officer at cybersecurity firm Hudson Rock, wrote in a LinkedIn post this week that the leak “will unfortunately lead to a lot of hacking, targeted phishing, and doxxing.”
While account passwords were not leaked, malicious hackers could use the email addresses to try to reset people's passwords, or guess them if they are commonly used or reused with other accounts. That's especially a risk if if the accounts are not protected by two-factor authentication, which adds a second layer of security to password-protected accounts by having users enter an auto-generated code to log in.
People who use Twitter anonymously should have a Twitter-dedicated email address that does not disclose who they are and is used solely for Twitter, experts say.
Though the hack appears to have taken place before Elon Musk took over Twitter, the news of the leaked emails adds another headache for the billionaire, whose first couple months as head of Twitter have been chaotic, to say the least.
Twitter did not immediately respond to a message for comment on the hack.
News of the breach could put the company in trouble with the Federal Trade Commission. The San Francisco company signed a consent agreement with the agency in 2011 that required it to address serious data-security lapses.
Twitter paid a $150 million penalty last May, several months before Musk’s takeover, for violating the consent order. An updated version established new procedures requiring the company to implement an enhanced privacy-protection program as well as beefing up information security.
In November, a group of Democratic lawmakers asked federal regulators to investigate any possible violations by the platform of consumer-protection laws or of its data-security commitments.
The FTC said at the time it is “tracking recent developments at Twitter with deep concern,” though no formal investigation has been announced. But experts and current and former Twitter employees have been warning of serious security risks flowing from the drastically reduced staff and deepening disorder within the company.
In August, Twitter’s former head of security filed a whistleblower complaint alleging that the company misled regulators about its poor cybersecurity defenses and its negligence in attempting to root out fake accounts that spread disinformation.
Among Peiter Zatko’s most serious accusations is that Twitter violated the terms of the 2011 FTC settlement by falsely claiming that it had put stronger measures in place to protect the security and privacy of its users.
HONOR BEATING 16-year-old South Asian boy beaten by his family after coming out as gay
Michelle De Pacina Fri, January 6, 2023
A 16-year-old South Asian boy from the U.K. was beaten by his family after coming out as gay.
The parents and older brother of the teen all pleaded guilty to assaulting the 16-year-old at the Blackburn Magistrate’s Court on Wednesday.
The boy’s family reportedly used violence against him while telling him he “could be changed.”
According to prosecution attorney Saleema Chaudhry, the teen was scared for his life after coming out, adding that he was disappointed with their reaction after believing he could maintain a good relationship with his parents.
“At the time he told his mum he was scared, but she ignored him,” Chaudhry said, according to Lancashire Telegraph.
The 16-year-old has been placed in foster care, where he reportedly feels accepted.
“He said he is not sure his parents knew what they were doing was wrong. He was sad about what happened, but is happy he has now been accepted for what he is,” Chaudhry added.
Defense attorney Aftab Bakhat argued that the injuries had been “slight” and that the harm done to the child was predominantly psychological.
“What is clear from the presentence reports is that they both have entrenched views which need to be tackled,” Bakhat told the court. “Their son has come out as gay and they have reacted in a horrible, nasty and violent way which is going to psychologically scar their own son.”
As for the brother’s defense attorney, Peter King, he claimed that the actions toward his sibling were out of loyalty rather than homophobia.
“Unfortunately his parents drew on him to try and make the other boy see things their way,” King said. “On the day he chose to support his parents, not because he thought his brother was adopting the wrong way forward, but out of loyalty.”
District Judge Alex Boyd concluded that the offenses of assault were homophobic by nature due to the child’s sexual orientation.
“He has to move away from his family and friends and is now restarting his life in the care system,” Boyd said. “He is doing well despite your actions and the position you placed him in.”
After pleading guilty, the family members were subjected to a 12-month community order.
They were each ordered to pay a 114 pounds (approximately $138) victim surcharge as well as 100 pounds (approximately $121) each in court costs.
The father was sentenced to 30 days of rehabilitative activity requirements, while the mother and brother were sentenced to 20 days.
The parents were also sentenced to 200 hours of unpaid work, while the brother was given 80 hours.
The family was also given a restraining order to prohibit them from having contact with the victim for 18 months.
HOME TO CANADIAN SNOWBIRDS Arizona has one of the worst homelessness crises in the nation, federal data shows
Juliette Rihl, Arizona Republic Thu, January 5, 2023
Arizona has one of the worst homelessness crises in the nation, according to new federal data.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in December released its 2022 Point-in-Time Estimates of Homelessness Report, which includes key findings about homelessness nationwide and compares how cities and states measure against one another. While national numbers largely remained stagnant since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the data showed Arizona’s homelessness crisis worsened significantly.
Homelessness across the country increased by less than 1% between 2020 and 2022, the report showed. Yet Arizona saw a 23% jump in its homeless population.
Of the more than 13,000 people experiencing homelessness in Arizona, most were unsheltered, meaning they were living on the street, in a car or in another place not meant for sleeping.
Arizona was one of just four states where more than two-thirds of unaccompanied youth under age 25 did not have a place to sleep.
Arizona is likely an outlier because of its dire shortage of affordable housing, said Tom Simplot, director of the Arizona Department of Housing. While the state has experienced immense population growth in the past two years, its housing supply hasn’t kept up.
“We can have all the money we could possibly use. We could have all the vouchers we could possibly use. But if we don’t have the units to actually house people, that money is basically worthless,” Simplot said.
Joanna Carr, research and policy director for the Arizona Housing Coalition, agreed.
“Essentially, housing and homelessness are connected,” Carr said. “And it’s the huge demands in our housing market that are contributing to homelessness.”
The HUD report's data was collected by local planning entities that count the number of people experiencing homelessness in their community on a single night every year. Experts agree that the numbers are likely a significant undercount because weather, volunteer availability and other factors can make it hard to get a complete count.
Because Pima County used a different methodology in 2022 to count its homeless population, its numbers last year were inflated compared to other places. This partially skewed Arizona’s population count, though most of the state’s homeless population was concentrated in Maricopa County, not Pima County.
On the same day HUD released its report, the Biden administration announced plans to reduce homelessness by 25% by 2025. The multi-pronged strategy includes increasing the supply of permanent supportive housing and emergency shelter space, providing more employment and education opportunities and expanding access to federal funding for Native American communities.
Arizona's affordable housing efforts fall short
Experts agree: More needs to be done — and fast — to address the state’s rapidly growing affordable housing and homelessness crisis.
The state has recently made major investments to address the crisis, including converting seven hotels and motels to emergency shelters, funneling resources to rural communities and continuing to issue tax credits to affordable housing developers, said Simplot of the Arizona Department of Housing.
Still, he said efforts to build more affordable housing need to be considerably ramped up, as the state isn’t keeping pace with its population growth. There are 375,000 Arizonans with an annual income of $25,000 or less, meaning they can afford to pay only $625 per month for rent and utilities without being cost-burdened, according to the department's research.
“I can tell you right now, there are zero apartments available in Arizona at that level,” Simplot said.
More policy solutions are needed to curb the crisis, such as changing zoning laws to make it easier to build more homes and somehow regulating rent increases, said Carr of the Arizona Housing Coalition.
In November, Gov. Katie Hobbs released a plan to mitigate the housing crisis. The plan includes encouraging local zoning changes, providing legal aid to families facing eviction and investing in the Housing Trust Fund, which funds affordable housing development and assistance programs, among other strategies.
Despite the pandemic, national homelessness numbers hold steady
The somewhat good news: The number of people experiencing homelessness nationwide increased by less than 1% between 2020 and 2022, despite the widespread economic hardship brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic that many experts predicted would cause homelessness to spike.
Shelia Harris, left, volunteer, talks with David King, Dec. 16, 2022, before the City of Phoenix started their enhanced cleanup of the area.
In a statement, HUD attributed the absence of a spike to the “robust federal response” that helped keep people in their homes during the pandemic, including emergency rental assistance, the Child Tax Credit and stimulus payments.
The national inventory of shelter beds also increased between 2020 and 2022, the report said.
Several demographic groups, including veterans, families with children and unaccompanied youth, saw significant nationwide decreases in homelessness over the past two years.
But homelessness rose among other groups, including Hispanic or Latino people, people who identify as Native American or Pacific Islander, single individuals and people with disabilities who are chronically homeless.
The number of Black people experiencing homelessness decreased by 5% between 2020 and 2022, though Black people, along with Native Americans and Pacific Islanders, were still overrepresented among the country’s homeless population.
HUD calculated changes over two years — 2020 to 2022 — because many communities did not count the number of unsheltered people in 2021 due to pandemic safety precautions.
Juliette Rihl covers housing insecurity and homelessness for The Arizona Republic. She can be reached at jrihl@arizonarepublic.com or on Twitter @julietterihl.
A grant from the Arizona Community Foundation supports coverage of housing insecurity on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic.
