Why tech bosses are doomsday prepping

Anthony Cuthbertson
Tue, 7 February 2023 

An image generated using OpenAI’s Dall-E software with the prompt ‘A robot dreaming of a futuristic robot' (The Independent)

In 2016, it took Microsoft just 16 hours to shut down its AI chatbot Tay. Released on Twitter with the tagline “the more you talk, the smarter Tay gets”, it didn’t take long for users to figure out that they could get her to repeat whatever they wrote and influence her behaviour. Tay’s playful conversation soon turned racist, sexist and hateful, as she denied that the Holocaust happened and called for a Mexican genocide.

Seven years after apologising for the catastrophic corruption of its chatbot, Microsoft is now all-in on the technology, though this time from a distance. In January, the US software giant announced a $10 billion investment in the artificial intelligence startup OpenAI, whose viral ChatGPT chatbot will soon be integrated into many of its products.

Chatbots have become the latest battleground in Big Tech, with Facebook’s Meta and Google’s Alphabet both making big commitments to the development and funding of generative AI: algorithms capable of creating art, audio, text and videos from simple prompts. Current systems work by consuming vast troves of human-created content, before using super-human pattern recognition to generate unique works of their own.

ChatGPT is the first truly mainstream demonstration of this technology, attracting more than a million users within the first five days of its release in November, and receiving more online searches last month than Donald Trump, Elon Musk and bitcoin combined. It has been used to write poetry, pass university exams and develop apps, with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella claiming that “everyone, no matter their profession” could soon use the tech “for everything they do”.

Yet despite ChatGPT’s popularity and promise, OpenAI’s rivals have so far been reluctant to release their own versions. In an apparent effort to avoid a repeat of the Tay bot debacle, any chatbots launched by major firms in recent years have been deliberately and severely restricted, like the clipping of a bird’s wings. When Facebook unveiled its own chatbot called Blenderbot last summer, there was virtually no interest. “The reason it was boring was because it was made safe,” said Meta’s chief AI scientist Yann LeCun at a forum in January. (Even with those safety checks, it still ended up making racist comments).

(Twitter/ Screengrab)

Some of the concern is not just about what such AI systems say, but how they say it. ChatGPT’s tone tends to be decisive and confident – even when it is wildly wrong. It means that it will answer questions , which could be dangerous if used on more mainstream platforms that people rely on widely, such as Google.

Beyond the reputational risk of a rogue AI, these companies also face the Innovator’s Dilemma, whereby any significant technological advancement could undermine their existing business models. If, for example, Google is able to answer questions using an AI rather than its current, traditional search tools then the latter, very profitable business could go defunct.

But the vast potential of generative AI means that if they wait too late, they could be left behind. The founder of Gmail warns artificial intelligence like ChatGPT could make search engines obsolete in the same way Google made Yellow Pages redundant. “Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption,” he wrote in December. “AI will eliminate the search engine result page, which is where they make most of their money. Even if they catch up on AI, they can’t fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business.”

The way he envisions this happening is that the AI acts like a “human researcher”, instantly combing through all the results thrown up by traditional search engines in order to sculpt the perfect response for the user.

Microsoft is already planning to integrate OpenAI’s technology in an effort to transform its search engine business, seeing an opportunity to obliterate the market dominance enjoyed by Google for more than a decade. It is an area that is prime for disruption, according to technologist Can Duruk, who wrote in a recent newsletter that Google’s “once-incredible search experience” had degenerated into a “spam-ridden, SEO-fueled hellscape”.

Google boss Sundar Pichai has already issued a “code red” to divert resources towards developing and releasing its own AI, with Alphabet reportedly planning to launch 20 new artificial intelligence products this year, including a souped-up version of its search engine.

The US tech giants are not just racing each other, they’re also racing China. A recent report by the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence stated: “China has the power, talent, and ambition to overtake the United States as the world leader in AI in the next decade if current dynamics don’t change.”

But changing these dynamics – of caution over competition – could exacerbate the dangerous outcomes that futurists have been warning about for decades. Some fear that the release of ChatGPT may trigger an AI arms race “to the bottom”, while security experts claim there could be an explosion of cyber crime and misinformation. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a recent interview that the thing that scared him most was an out-of-control plague of deepfakes. “I definitely have been watching with great concern the revenge porn generation that’s been happening with the open source image generators,” Altman said. “I think that’s causing huge and predictable harm.”

ChatGPT’s response to a question about the risks of artificial intelligence (OpenAI)

Then there’s the impact on the overall economy, with one commentator telling The Independent that they predicted ChatGPT alone had the potential to replace 20 per cent of the workforce without any further development.

Human labour has long been vulnerable to automation, but this is the first time it could also happen for human creativity. “We’ve gotten used to the idea that technological advances lead to the loss of blue-collar jobs, but now the prospect that white-collar jobs could be lost is quite disturbing,” Nicole Sahin, who heads global recruitment platform G-P, said at Davos last month. “The impacts are quite unpredictable. But what’s clear is that everything is accelerating at the speed of light.”

Even if people don’t lose their jobs directly to AI, they will almost certainly lose their jobs to people who know how to use AI. Dr Andrew Rogoyski, from the Institute for People-Centred AI at the University of Surrey, believes there is an urgent need for serious debate around the governance of AI, and not just in the context of “killer robots” that he claims distract from the more nuanced use cases of powerful artificial intelligence.

“The publicity surrounding AI systems like ChatGPT has highlighted the potential for AI to be usefully applied in areas of human endeavour,” Dr Rogoyski tells The Independent. “It brings to the foreground the need to talk about AI, how it should be governed, what we should and shouldn’t be allowed to do with it, how we gain international consensus on its use, and how we keep humans ‘in the loop’ to ensure that AI is used to benefit, not harm, humankind.”

OpenAI’s Dall-E image generator created this with the prompt ‘A robot artist painting a futuristic robot' (The Independent)

The year that Tay was released, Google’s DeepMind AI division proposed an “off switch” for rogue AI in the event that it surpasses human intelligence and ignores conventional turn-off commands. “It may be necessary for a human operator to press the big red button to prevent the agent from continuing a harmful sequence of actions,” DeepMind researchers wrote in a peer-reviewed paper titled ‘Safety Interruptible Agents’. Including this “big red button” in all advanced artificial intelligence, they claimed, was the only way of avoiding an AI apocalypse.

This outcome is something thousands of AI and robotics researchers warned about in an open letter in 2016, whose signatories included Professor Stephen Hawking. The late physicist claimed that the creation of powerful artificial intelligence would be “either the best, or the worst thing, ever to happen to humanity”. The hype at the time meant that a general consensus formed that frameworks need to be put in place and rules set to avoid the worst outcomes.

Silicon Valley appeared to collectively ditch its ethos of ‘move fast and break things’ when it came to AI, as it no longer seemed to apply when what could be broken was entire industries, the economy, or society. The release of ChatGPT may have ruptured this detente, with its launch coming after OpenAI switched from a non-profit aimed at developing friendly AI, to a for-profit firm intent on achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) that matches or surpasses human intellect.

OpenAI is part of a wave of well-funded startups in the space – including AnthropicAI, Cohere, Adept, Neeva, Stable Diffusion and Inflection.AI – that don’t need to worry about the financial and reputational risks that come with releasing powerful but unpredictable AI to the public.

One of the best ways to train AI is to make it public, as it allows developers to discover dangers they hadn’t previously foreseen, while also allowing the systems to improve through reinforcement learning from human feedback. But these unpredictable outcomes could result in irreversible damage. The safety checks put in place by OpenAI have already been exploited by users, with Reddit forums sharing ways to jailbreak the technology with a prompt called DAN (Do Anything Now), which encourages ChatGPT to inhabit a sort of character that is free of the restrictions put in by its engineers.

Rules are needed to police this emerging space, but regulations are always lagging behind the relentless progress of technology. In the case of AI, it is way behind. The US government is currently in the “making voluntary recommendations” stage, while the UK is in the early stages of an inquiry into a proposed “pro-innovation framework for regulating AI”. This week, an Australian MP called for an inquiry into the risks of artificial intelligence after claiming it could be used for “mass destruction” – in a speech part written by ChatGPT.

Social media offers a good example of what happens when there is a lack of rules and oversight with a new technology. After the initial buzz and excitement came a wave of new problems, which included misinformation on a scale never before seen, hate speech, harassment and scams – many of which are now being recycled in some of the tamer warnings about AI.

Online search interest in the term ‘artificial intelligence’ (Google Trends)

DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis describes AI as an “epoch-defining technology, like the internet or fire or electricity”. If it is as big as the electricity revolution, then predicting what comes next is almost unfathomable – what Thomas Edison referred to as “the field of fields… it holds the secrets which will reorganise the life of the world.”

ChatGPT may be the first properly mainstream form of generative AI, demonstrating that the technology has finally reached the ‘Plateau of Productivity’, but its arrival will almost certainly accelerate the roll-out and development of already-unpredictable AI. OpenAI boss Sam Altman says the next version of ChatGPT – set to be called GPT-4 – will make its predecessor “look like a boring toy”. What comes next may be uncertain, but whatever it is will almost certainly come quickly.

Those developing AI claim that it will not just fix the bad things, but create new things to push forward progress. But this could mean destroying a lot of other things along the way. AI will force us to reinvent the way we learn, the way we work and the way we create. Laws will have to be rewritten, entire curriculums scrapped, and even economic systems rethought – Altman claims the arrival of AGI could “break capitalism”.

If it really does go badly, it won’t be a case of simply issuing an apology like when Tay bot went rogue. That same year, Altman revealed that he had a plan if the AI apocalypse arrives, admitting in an interview that he is a doomsday prepper. “I try not to think of it too much,” he said. “But I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defence Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.”

How will Google and Microsoft AI chatbots affect us and how we work?


Dan Milmo Global technology editor, and Kari Paul in San Francisco
Tue, 7 February 2023 

Google and Microsoft are going head to head over the future of search by embracing the technology behind artificial intelligence chatbots.

Google announced on Monday that it is testing Bard, a rival to the Microsoft-backed ChatGPT, which has swiftly become a sensation, and will roll it out to the public in the coming weeks.

And on Tuesday, Microsoft announced it is increasing its focus on artificial intelligence, boosting funding for new tools and integrating the technology underpinning ChatGPT into products including its Bing search engine and Edge browser, with the goal of making search more conversational.

ChatGPT, developed by San Francisco company OpenAI, has reached 100 million users since its public launch in November, becoming by some estimates the fasting growing consumer app of all time.

Here are some questions about Google and Microsoft’s AI plans and their likely impact.

Why are Google and Microsoft using AI in search?

The reaction to ChatGPT shows that there is an appetite for AI-enhanced search and for answers to queries that are more than just a link to a website. Microsoft clearly sees this as a competitive opportunity, as does Google judging by its rapid response. Google also believes users increasingly want to access information in a more natural, intuitive way (using tools such as Google Lens, which allows people to search using images and text).

Dan Ives, an analyst at the US financial services firm Wedbush Securities, says: “While Bing today only has roughly 9% of the search market, further integrating this unique ChatGPT tool and algorithms into the Microsoft search platform could result in major share shifts away from Google.”

What is the technology behind the Google and ChatGPT chatbots?

Bard and ChatGPT are both based on so-called large language models. Google’s is called LaMDA, an acronym for “language model for dialogue applications”. These are types of neural networks, which mimic the underlying architecture of the brain in computer form. They are fed vast amounts of text from the internet in a process that teaches them how to generate responses to text-based prompts. This enables ChatGPT to produce credible-sounding responses to queries about composing couplets, writing job applications or, in probably the biggest panic it has created so far, academic work.
How will Bard be different from ChatGPT?

Google has yet to make Bard publicly available but it uses up-to-date information from the internet and has reportedly been able to answer questions about 12,000 layoffs announced by Google’s parent, Alphabet, last month. ChatGPT’s dataset – in the form of billions of words – goes up to 2021, but the chatbot is still in its research preview phase.

Google’s chief executive, Sundar Pichai, said Bard could answer a query about how to explain new discoveries made by Nasa’s James Webb space telescope to a nine-year-old. It can also tell users about the best strikers in football “right now” while supplying training drills to emulate top players. The screenshots supplied by Google showed a more polished interface than ChatGPT’s, but it is still not accessible to the public so direct comparisons with the rival OpenAI service are difficult.

How will the technology behind Bard and ChatGPT change Google and Microsoft’s search engines?

Google says its search engine will use its latest AI technologies, such as LaMDA, PaLM, image generator Imagen and music creator MusicLM. The example presented by Pichai on Monday was a conversational, chatbot-like response to a question about whether it is easier to learn the guitar or the piano. It appeared at the top of the search query instead of, for instance, a link to a blogpost or a website. Again, Google has not released this AI-powered search model to the public so questions remain.

Microsoft detailed its revamp of Bing on Tuesday, announcing that it will be able to answer questions using online sources in a conversational style, like ChatGPT does now. It will also provide AI-powered annotations for additional context and sources, perhaps reflecting concerns among some ChatGPT users about the accuracy of some user answers.

“It’s a new day in search,” said Microsoft’s CEO, Satya Nadella, at an event announcing the products. “The race starts today, and we’re going to move and move fast.”

Will generative AI transform our jobs?

Generative AI, or artificial intelligence that can create novel content ranging from text to audio and images via user prompts, is already having an impact, and has stoked fears it could replace a range of jobs. BuzzFeed will use OpenAI technology to enhance its quizzes and personalise some content, according to a memo obtained by the Wall Street Journal.

BuzzFeed’s chief executive, Jonah Peretti, said humans would provide ideas and “cultural currency” as part of any AI-powered creative process. In Hollywood, AI is being used to de-age actors while ITV has created a sketch show based on deepfake representations of celebrities.

Michael Wooldridge, a professor of computer science at the University of Oxford, said some industries were going to feel a significant impact.

“Generative AI will have big implications in some industries – those who write boilerplate copy for a living are going to feel the influence soon,” he said. “In web search, it will make browsers much better at understanding what we are searching for and presenting the results in a way we can understand – just as if we asked our query of a person, rather than a machine.”

He added that ChatGPT and other similar systems have flaws and can get things wrong, as users of the OpenAI chatbot have found.

“Treating them as sages is really not a good idea,” he says. “Until we know how to make them reliable, this is not a good use of the technology: best stick to the things it is really good at, like summarising a text and extracting key points from it.”

Zoom to lay off 1,300 employees as work from home craze ends

Gareth Corfield
Tue, 7 February 2023 

Eric Yuan speaks onstage during the Dropbox Work In Progress Conference - Matt Winkelmeyer / Getty Images for Dropbox

Zoom is to make 1,300 layoffs, letting go of around 15pc of its workforce as the Covid-19 pandemic’s work-from-home culture comes to a crashing halt.

Eric Yuan, the chief executive, said: “We have made the tough but necessary decision to reduce our team by approximately 15% and say goodbye to around 1,300 hardworking, talented colleagues.”

California-based Zoom’s share price soared more than 7pc as the news broke, rising as far as $83 (£69).


Mr Yuan also pledged to reduce his salary by 98pc and forgo his annual bonus. The company boss is worth around $4bn, according to Bloomberg estimates.

The news comes as US-based “Big Tech” companies make rounds of redundancies amid slowing sales as the world returns to pre-pandemic ways of working which are less reliant on tech products.

Some estimates say as many as 85,000 tech employees have been made redundant since the start of 2023, raising questions around executives’ strategies and forward planning for the post-pandemic era after two years of stratospheric sales and profits.

In its last set of financial results for the three months to October 2022, Zoom’s sales increased 5pc.

Yet profits declined to $48.4m, down from $340m in the previous year’s reporting period.

Starting in March 2020 the entire world was forced into remote working within a matter of weeks as the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe.

Strict home lockdown policies ushered in a golden era for tech companies which capitalised on demand that skyrocketed overnight.

Zoom’s share price more than doubled during the 12 months leading up to March 2021, briefly quadrupling its pre-pandemic valuation of $32bn in October 2020.

At the time of writing, the business was valued at around $24bn (£19.86bn), making it more than three times larger than aero engine maker Rolls-Royce.

Addressing staff as “Zoomies” in his Tuesday message Mr Yuan said: “As the world transitions to life post-pandemic, we are seeing that people and businesses continue to rely on Zoom.

“But the uncertainty of the global economy, and its effect on our customers, means we need to take a hard – yet important – look inward to reset ourselves so we can weather the economic environment, deliver for our customers and achieve Zoom’s long-term vision.”

The redundancies come around a fortnight before the video calling company is due to present its latest financial results for the three months up to the end of January.

Over the past two years Zoom became a byword for working from home, becoming a vital tool relied on by millions of remote employees worldwide.

Video conferencing star Zoom cuts staff by 15 percent

Tue, 7 February 2023 


The company behind the Zoom video conferencing platform -- which became a household name during the pandemic -- announced Tuesday it is laying off about 15 percent of its staff.

Zoom Video Communications chief executive Eric Yuan is also taking a 98 percent cut in salary this year and forgoing his executive bonus, he said in a blog post about the job cuts.

He added that members of his executive leadership team are taking a 20 percent salary reduction and also forfeiting bonuses this year.


While people and businesses continue to rely on Zoom "as the world transitions to life post-pandemic," the Silicon Valley-based firm is seeing customers cut back on spending, Yuan said in the post.

Zoom has made the "tough but necessary" decision to lay off about 1,300 people, or roughly 15 percent of its staff, according to Yuan.

"Our trajectory was forever changed during the pandemic when the world faced one of its toughest challenges, and I am proud of the way we mobilized as a company to keep people connected," Yuan said.

Zoom tripled its ranks of employees during the pandemic, as people used the platform for remote work, court hearings, social events and more while Covid-19 risks barred them from getting together in person, according to Yuan.

"We are seeing that people and businesses continue to rely on Zoom," Yuan said.

"But the uncertainty of the global economy, and its effect on our customers, means we need to take a hard look inward to reset ourselves so we can weather the economic environment, deliver for our customers and achieve Zoom's long-term vision."

Zoom will continue to invest in strategic areas, the chief executive noted.

Zoom joined a growing list of US tech firms slashing jobs as years of high spending has given way to parsimony due to harsh economic conditions around the world.

American computer firm Dell said Monday that it will lay off some five percent of its global workforce, or around 6,650 employees.

The cuts follow similar steps by tech giants Microsoft, Facebook owner Meta, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon and Twitter as the industry girds for economic downturn.

They also come after a major hiring spree at the height of the coronavirus pandemic when companies scrambled to meet demand as people went online for work, school and entertainment.

According to the specialist site Layoffs.fyi, just over 95,000 tech employees have lost their jobs since the beginning of January worldwide.

gc/caw

'Waiting for our dead': Anger builds at Turkey's quake response

Burcin Gercek
Tue, 7 February 2023


With every passing moment, Ebru Firat knows the chances dim of finding her cousin alive under the rubble of a flattened building in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep.

And with that fading hope, the 23-year-old's grief is being replaced by rage at the government's earthquake response.

Monday's 7.8-magnitude pre-dawn tremor killed more than 7,800 people across swathes of Turkey and Syria, injured tens of thousands and left many more without shelter in the winter cold.

"I have no more tears left to cry," she said.

Despite the importance of every minute, no rescue team arrived at the scene in the critical first 12 hours after the disaster, forcing victims' relatives and local police to clear the ruins by hand, witnesses said.

And when the rescuers finally came on Monday evening, they only worked for a few hours before breaking for the night, residents told AFP.

"People revolted (on Tuesday) morning. The police had to intervene," said Celal Deniz, 61, whose brother and nephews remain trapped.

- 'No help' -

In the miserable cold, Deniz and his relatives try to warm themselves around a fire they lit in the open air, not too far from the destroyed building.

"There isn't anywhere that our rescuers cannot reach," Turkey's Red Crescent chief Kerem Kinik declared in a TV interview.

But Deniz disagreed.

"They don't know what the people have gone through," he said.

"Where have all our taxes gone, collected since 1999?" he asked, referring to a levy dubbed "the earthquake tax" that was implemented after a massive earthquake destroyed large parts of northwestern Turkey and killed 17,400 people.

The revenues -- now estimated to be worth 88 billion liras, or $4.6 billion -- were meant to have been spent on disaster prevention and the development of emergency services.

But how this money was actually spent is not publicly known.

If there aren't enough rescuers, volunteers say they will have to step in and do the hard work themselves.

"We go to places to help people who were originally supposed to be rescued by the Red Crescent, but where no help comes," said Ceren Soylu, a member of a volunteer group set up by the right-wing opposition Iyi Party.

- Opposition warning -

The Iyi Party's presence on the ground delivers a warning to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- whose chances of extending his rule into a third decade in May elections could hinge on his handling of Turkey's worst disaster in decades.

In Gaziantep, where violent aftershocks rumble on, residents lack almost everything. Shops are closed, there is no heat because gas lines have been cut to avoid explosions, and finding petrol is tough.

Only bakeries remain open, drawing long queues.

Some of the worst damage in Gaziantep's eponymous province took place in the most remote districts, where hundreds of buildings have collapsed.

"The roads have been partly destroyed, it's very difficult to bring aid to these areas," said Gokhan Gungor, a cook who volunteered to distribute food to survivors.

"People lack water and food there," he said.

Many survivors are feeling abandoned as they also battle cold weather, especially since many rushed outside without even having time to put on shoes when the quake struck.

On Tuesday afternoon, rescuers and search dogs were deployed again.

But it was too late, said one woman, refusing to give her name for fear of retribution from officials, as she told AFP her aunt was still buried in the rubble.

"We're now waiting for our dead," she said.

bg-rba/raz/zak/rox/mca

Tuesday briefing: Why the Turkey and Syria earthquake was a catastrophe

Archie Bland

THE GUARDIAN
Mon, 6 February 2023 

Photograph: Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

Good morning. A little over 24 hours after the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria, there is very little good news. The death toll has passed 4,300 this morning, with thousands more injured, many more trapped in the rubble, and thousands of buildings in ruins.

A massive rescue effort is underway, with 13,000 more rescue workers, including volunteers, on their way from Istanbul. But conditions are hampering that work on both sides of the border, with anger in some areas that no help has yet arrived. Last night, the World Health Organisation warned that the toll could pass 20,000.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that it was the worst disaster to hit the country since 1939, and in Syria, a volunteer with the White Helmets rescue group, Ismail Alabdullah, said: “We are used to digging people out of the rubble but this is different … There is nothing left, nothing at all.”

You can find the latest on the live blog here. For today’s newsletter, Ruth Michaelson, who has been covering the disaster for the Guardian from Istanbul, explains the confluence of factors that made it such a catastrophe. Here are the headlines.

In depth: ‘Nothing can prepare you for this’

Rescuers carry out a girl from a collapsed building. Photograph: Sertaç Kayar/Reuters

When the magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck before dawn on Monday, about 20 miles from the city of Gaziantep, the vast majority of residents were inside and asleep. TV footage showed some of those who were able to flee their homes standing in the snow in their pyjamas. When the sun rose, it revealed a picture of devastation across south-eastern Turkey and north-western Syria. This gallery captures some of that staggering impact.

Within half an hour of the quake hitting, the governor of the Turkish city of Osmaniye had confirmed five deaths. By 10am the confirmed toll stood at 300. This morning it was 4,300, and still rising. Rescue workers were unable to reach the city of Antakya in Hatay for nearly 24 hours – this video shows damage to the runway at the provincial airport.

“Turkey and Syria have suffered catastrophic earthquakes multiple times in living memory,” said Ruth Michaelson (who you can also hear on this morning’s episode of Today in Focus). “Everybody here remembers 1999 [when a quake hit Istanbul and killed 17,000]. But the consequences of this are massive. What we are hearing from people living in the region is profound shock. Even if you know that earthquakes are relatively common, nothing can prepare you for this.”

Here are some of the reasons the impact this time is so severe.

***

The location and depth of the initial earthquake

The first earthquake took place on the East Anatolian fault – the boundary between the Anatolian plate, the African plate, and the Arabian plate in the Earth’s crust. (There’s a useful visual guide here.) While it has been more than a century since an earthquake caused such devastation on this fault, there have been a number of smaller quakes in the last 25 years, and the region has been considered at serious risk of something worse.

There have been higher magnitude earthquakes than this one even in recent years around the world, but that is not a sufficient measure of impact on its own: crucial to the devastation here was the location of the earthquake near large population centres, and how close to the surface of the Earth it hit.

A deep earthquake takes place between 300km and 700km down. This one was very shallow – about 17km below the surface – meaning that it was felt more powerfully and across a wider region above ground. The tremors that resulted were felt in Cyprus and Cairo, and registered by seismologists as far away as Greenland.

***

An unusually large aftershock

That impact was magnified by a 7.5 magnitude aftershock – on a different faultline 100km away, and much larger relative to the initial quake than aftershocks typically are. Earthquake magnitude is measured on a logarithmic scale, meaning that this aftershock only released about a third of the energy of the first even though the figures are close – but in hitting buildings already severely damaged by the initial quake, it greatly amplified the original damage, and put many rescue workers at risk. There were dozens of other smaller aftershocks that continued into Tuesday morning.

“Even on Turkish TV news, you could see people trembling as they hit, watching the building quake, and trying to work out the right thing to do,” Ruth said. You can see examples here and here.

***

The fact that it took place during winter

There have already been warnings in recent weeks that a snowstorm across Syria and parts of Turkey had left millions of displaced people at risk of freezing to death.

“This came at a terrible time – there are incredibly bad winter conditions,” Ruth said. “Many areas are covered in snow, and temperatures very low. In northern Syria even buildings that have survived may not have adequate heat. People ran into the streets and into really bad storms; people who can are sheltering in their cars, and others have nowhere to go. It’s clear that it increases the scale of the relief effort that’s needed.”

The NGO International Blue Crescent Relief and Development Foundation said that “heavy snow in the entire region including heavy rain since yesterday has made the lives of the people who abandoned their houses very difficult to survive”. Meanwhile, those who have been trapped under rubble must be reached more quickly if they are to be saved.

***

Many buildings already vulnerable to collapse

Emergency personnel search for victims at the site of a collapsed building after an earthquake in Diyarbakir, south-east Turkey. Photograph: Refik Tekin/EPA

In Turkey, Ruth said, “the problem of how to deal with earthquakes is something every government knows they have to be on top of. The 1999 quake is very fresh in people’s minds, and that includes officials. The government was very quick to say that this was a level four emergency, which means that international aid is required.” The country also has well-trained, experienced rescuers and a massive operation is underway.

Even in Istanbul, which was unaffected this time, concerns over unregulated development and ageing building stock prompted warnings in 2020 that a major earthquake could leave 10% of the city’s 15m residents homeless. “You do find apartments for rent in buildings marketed as ‘earthquake proof’, but whether that is reliable is a different question,” Ruth said. “In much of the south, you are much less likely to find that.”

Most of the buildings which have fallen appear to have been constructed pre-2000, when new regulations in response to the 1999 quake kicked in. In a 2020 piece for catastrophe modelling firm Temblor, Istanbul-based seismologist Haluk Eyidoğan warned that in the south-east of Turkey, “stone masonry and adobe masonry structures in rural areas are weak, and the so-called reinforced concrete carcass multi-storey buildings are demolished in cities”.

The same or worse is true in the affected region of Syria, ground down by the damage inflicted by years of civil war and with many already displaced.

***

The complexity of the situation in Syria

Search and rescue operation in Idlib. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

With the earthquake coming against a backdrop of freezing weather, civil war, rocketing prices and fuel shortages, as well as the region’s first cholera outbreak in a decade, the International Rescue Committee has called this “a crisis within multiple crises”, particularly for displaced people.

“Northern Syria is where we’re going to see the most acute need,” Ruth said. “Trucks from across the border in Turkey are already the sole lifeline of international aid. It is a rebel-controlled region that gets no support other than basic supplies from international aid agencies. Without that, there is nothing in a place like Idlib [above].”

Today’s Guardian editorial notes that Damascus only allows entry via one border point and adds: “It would be unconscionable if the others remained closed at this time of desperate need.” You can also read Patrick Wintour’s piece on urgent calls for those restrictions to be relaxed here.

With hundreds of thousands of refugees on the Syrian side of the border, volunteer rescue NGO the White Helmets said that the region was in “a state of catastrophe”. The scale of the damage in government-controlled areas was less clear because of an independent media blackout, Ruth said.

Meanwhile, she noted, there are millions of Syrian refugees across the border; ahead of an imminent election in Istanbul “there has already been a lot of talk about deporting, or in the words of the Turkish government, having people voluntarily return to Syria. These are the same people who are now seeking for help from the government which is in charge of their care. They are in a desperate situation.”

Separatist rebels take New Zealand pilot hostage in Papua

Tue, February 7, 2023 

JAYAPURA, Indonesia (AP) — Separatist rebels set fire to a small plane carrying six people after it landed at a remote airport in Indonesia's restive Papua province and took its pilot, a New Zealand citizen, hostage early Tuesday, police and rebels said.

Rebel spokesperson Sebby Sambom said independence fighters from the West Papua Liberation Army, the military wing of the Free Papua Organization, stormed the plane shortly after it landed in Paro in Nduga, a mountainous district.

Sambom said the fighters, led by group commander Egianus Kogeya, set fire to the plane and seized its pilot, Philips Max Marthin, as part of their struggle for independence. He demanded that all flights to Nduga be halted.

“We have taken the pilot hostage and we are bringing him out,” Sambom said in a statement. "We will never release the pilot we are holding hostage unless Indonesia recognizes and frees Papua from Indonesian colonialism.”

Sambom did not give the pilot's location, and the status of the five passengers, including a young child, was not immediately clear.

Conflicts between indigenous Papuans and Indonesian security forces are common in the impoverished Papua region, a former Dutch colony in the western part of New Guinea that is ethnically and culturally distinct from much of Indonesia. Papua was incorporated into Indonesia in 1969 after a U.N.-sponsored ballot that was widely seen as a sham. Since then, a low-level insurgency has simmered in the mineral-rich region, which is divided into two provinces, Papua and West Papua.

Papua police spokesperson Ignatius Benny Ady Prabowo said soldiers and police were searching for the pilot and passengers.

The plane, operated by Indonesian aviation company Susi Air, was carrying about 450 kilograms (990 pounds) of supplies from an airport in Timika, a mining town in neighboring Mimika district.

Conflict in the region has spiked in the past year, with dozens of rebels, security forces and civilians killed.

Last July, gunmen believed to be separatist rebels killed 10 traders who came from other Indonesian islands and an indigenous Papuan. Sambom later claimed responsibility for the killing, accusing the victims of being spies for the Indonesian government.

Last March, rebel gunmen killed eight technicians repairing a remote telecommunications tower. In December 2018, at least 31 construction workers and a soldier were killed in one of the worst attacks in the province.

Flying is the only practical way of accessing many areas in the mountainous and jungle-clad easternmost provinces of Papua and West Papua.

The Associated Press

Hudson's Bay, Gap, PetSmart among stores that gave customer data to Facebook's owner

Tue, February 7, 2023 

The retailer PetSmart Canada appears in a user's list of 'off-Facebook activity' downloaded from the social media platform. (Thomas Daigle/CBC - image credit)

When a shopper shares their email address at the cash register — to receive an electronic receipt, rather than a paper one — do they really know where their details are being sent?

A CBC News review of Facebook user data suggests a variety of well-known retailers in Canada have been sharing customer information with the social media platform's parent company to gain marketing research in return. And it's not clear what steps have been taken to warn shoppers.

Purchases from department store giant Hudson's Bay, athletic apparel chain Lululemon, electronics retailer Best Buy, homeware store Bed, Bath & Beyond and beauty products chain Sephora all appeared in the Facebook data seen by CBC.

This is "a wake-up call," said Wendy Wong, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia Okanagan who studies emerging technologies. "These revelations are showing the extent to which the public does not know how much of our activities are trackable."

Retailers that appeared in the Facebook data include:

Anthropologie.


Bed, Bath & Beyond.


Best Buy.


Gap.


Hudson's Bay.


Lululemon.


PetSmart.


Sephora.

Federal Privacy Commissioner Philippe Dufresne recently published a scathing report about the data-sharing practices of another major retailer, Home Depot. The report last month found the big-box retailer didn't seek proper consent from in-store customers as it systematically transmitted e-receipt details with Facebook's owner, Meta.

Dufresne's investigation only focused on Home Depot, but the process appears widespread.

Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press

"We expect that this practice is used by other organizations," he said in an interview. "We found that this was in breach of privacy law and that this practice has to stop."

Hudson's Bay said in light of the privacy commissioner's findings about Home Depot, the department store chain has "suspended all data transfers to Meta."

Hudson's Bay spokesperson Tiffany Bourré told CBC the company is reviewing its data-sharing practices.

The privacy commissioner said Home Depot customers' encoded email addresses and purchase information were handed over. Meta then used the data to analyze how online ads lead to purchases in brick-and-mortar stores.

Dufresne's report raised concerns that in certain stores, purchase details could prove "highly sensitive … where they reveal, for example, information about an individual's health or sexuality."

Facebook user data reviewed

The privacy watchdog's report stemmed from a complaint filed by a man who was deleting his Facebook account, only to discover the platform had a list of in-store purchases he'd made at Home Depot.

A group of CBC journalists each downloaded their personal data from the social media company — information known as "off-Facebok activity" — and found retail purchases listed from multiple chains. (Facebook tells users how to request their own files here.)

Facebook data showing purchases from PetSmart, for instance, aligned with e-receipts received in recent months for in-store purchases.

A PetSmart spokesperson declined to say how much personal customer data the chain shares with Meta, and how it warns shoppers about its data-sharing practices when they're asked for their email address.

"We continuously review our data-sharing practices," the company said in a statement.

PetSmart's privacy policy states: "We may share the information we collect with companies that provide support services to us."

Andrew Kelly/Reuters

The privacy commissioner said Home Depot's privacy statement didn't constitute consent "for its disclosure to Meta of the personal information of in-store customers requesting an e-receipt."

Other retailers with purchases listed in the downloaded Facebook data include fashion chains Anthropologie and Gap, which also owns brands Banana Republic, Old Navy and Athleta.

CBC reached out to each retailer and provided purchase data downloaded from Facebook. Gap declined to comment. The other companies did not respond.

"For the average person, it might feel invasive," said Opeyemi Akanbi, an assistant professor at Toronto Metropolitan University's school of professional communication. But from a business's perspective, "data is very precious… to get a better sense of what people are doing and to target advertising more effectively."

Companies, however, "must generally obtain an individual's consent when they collect, use or disclose that individual's personal information" under Canadian law, according to the Office of the Privacy Commissioner.

"The risk is that we trivialize the use of personal information," Dufresne said. "Treat privacy as a priority. It's a fundamental right."

In reality, businesses face little risk. The privacy commissioner does not have the authority to levy fines. He can only issue recommendations.

Class action launched

Regina-based lawyer Tony Merchant launched a national class action against Home Depot in light of the privacy watchdog's findings. The lawsuit has not yet been certified.

Facebook compiles massive amounts of data about individuals and "ends up with a total profile of when you're having a baby, when you'll need a mortgage ... all these kinds of things are exceptionally intrusive," Merchant said.

Home Depot said it stopped using Meta's offline conversions tool last October, after the privacy watchdog approached the company.

The program is designed to gauge the effectiveness of ads on Meta's platforms and how they "lead to real-world outcomes," such as in-store purchases, according to the Silicon Valley firm. Meta declined to say how many retailers in Canada provide data about their customers.

Facebook users may request the platform stop logging their interactions with some or all businesses. Instructions are listed here.

"It's important we become more aware of the datafication of our lives," Wong, the UBC professor, said, referring to the way personal information is increasingly treated as a commodity.

"It's happening regardless of whether we're aware of it or not."

SOUR PUSS MEETS MR.CHARMING

Alberta Premier Smith meets Prime Minister Trudeau; awkward handshake ensues

Tue, February 7, 2023 


OTTAWA — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has met face to face with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a photo opportunity punctuated by short statements and a very awkward handshake.

Smith and Trudeau met briefly to discuss shared aspirations and concerns over pending federal legislation aimed at helping Canadian workers adapt to the global move to increasing reliance on renewable energy.

The short meeting began with Trudeau reaching down to shake hands, with Smith offering a hesitant palm down hand in return, prompting Trudeau to take it and hold it in place with his thumb on top as the cameras clicked and whirred.

Smith, in Ottawa with other premiers for talks on health-care funding, faces an election this spring after successfully harnessing party anger with Trudeau to win the UCP leadership race to become premier.

She has disparaged Trudeau's government as not a true national government and passed controversial legislation granting her government power to direct provincial agencies to ignore federal laws.

She has accused Trudeau of trying to decimate Alberta’s oil and gas industry with his green transition legislation, but now says she wants to at least try to work collaboratively.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 7, 2023.

The Canadian Press

BC

Canada betrays its ‘Species at Risk Act’ while province wipes out mountain caribou habitat: VWS

Tue, February 7, 2023 

The nation’s Species at Risk Act is no law at all, says a local environmental group.

The Valhalla Wilderness Society contends that the Species at Risk Act (SARA) does not provide protection under the law for the endangered mountain caribou and its habitat, 30 years after Canada signed an accord — at the UN Convention on Biodiversity in Rio De Janeiro — to protect biodiversity, which spawned the enactment of SARA.

In early December Canada hosted the 15th U.N. Convention on Biodiversity in Montreal, but the event served to mark the current state of fate of the mountain caribou in the province, said Valhalla Wilderness Society’s (VWS) Craig Pettitt in a press release.

“B.C. is ravaging biodiversity, not only by cutting down some of our most biodiverse and oldest forests, but also by slaughtering predators to prop up caribou numbers while the habitat destruction continues,” he said.

“The truth is that Canada has a long record of withholding enforcement of the SARA for species that have an economic value. Simply put, it appears that B.C. and Canada have decided it is more profitable to log caribou habitat than to save the caribou.”

Pettitt said Canada’s Species at Risk Act has failed to protect habitat for the endangered deep-snow mountain caribou.

“These rare and irreplaceable caribou are declining toward extinction due to extensive logging of their critical habitat,” he said.

The caribou reside in an old-growth inland temperate rainforest, an area that contains trees up to 1,800 years old that have been targeted for clearcutting for nearly 100 years — and less than three per cent of the big-treed old-growth remains.

In 2009 the province did protect some of the caribou’s habitat, but it wasn’t enough as the herds were unable to thrive, said Pettitt.

“The province blames predation by wolves and cougars for the loss of the caribou, but scientific research has proven that the increase in predation is caused by logging forest and fragmenting it with logging roads,” he said in the press release. “This increases the number of large predators, makes their hunting easier, and makes the caribou more vulnerable.”

The VWS and other environmentalists, biologists and lawyers filed separate legal petitions under SARA in 2017 concerning the plight of the mountain caribou with the federal minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

“We all provided expert scientific testimony that the deep-snow mountain caribou faced imminent threat to their survival,” recalled Pettitt.

One year later the federal minister declared imminent threat to the caribou’s recovery, and said an immediate increase in habitat protection was urgently needed.

“Nearly four years later there has been no increase in habitat protection while hundreds of wolves have been slaughtered,” said Pettitt. “According to Canada’s SARA, the minister should have made a recommendation to cabinet for an Order forcing B.C. to increase habitat protection. No recommendation happened.”

Two years ago VWS filed a second petition alleging that the minister of Environment and Climate Change was in violation of the SARA by failing to recommend that cabinet write an Order.

“Seven months later the ECCC publicly acknowledged that a recommendation had been made,” said Pettitt. “But the political arm of government refused to write an Order.”

He called on the government to honour the Species at Risk Act to save the caribou.

“Once the caribou have lost too much habitat, the caribou may never again be able to be recovered to a self-sustaining level,” he said. “Their survival may always be dependent on cow penning and the extensive slaughter of wolves and cougars, which is known to cause a serious loss of biodiversity.”

Timothy Schafer, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, The Nelson Daily

N.L.'s social justice co-op calls on provincial government to end no-fault evictions

Tue, February 7, 2023

Shirley Cox, 82, was evicted from her home in St. John's last week. 

(Curtis Hicks/CBC - image credit)

Following the City of St. John's eviction of an 82-year-old woman last week, the Social Justice Co-operative of Newfoundland and Labrador is calling on the provincial government to change legislation to end no-fault evictions in government or social housing.

Shirley Cox was removed from her apartment in Riverhead Towers, owned and operated by the City of St. John's, on Hamilton Avenue last Tuesday after receiving an eviction notice last October.

Cox maintains she was never given a reason why but said she suspects she was evicted for smoking in front of the building's main floor entrance. She said she couldn't navigate her wheelchair to and from the property's designated smoking area.

The city told CBC News it doesn't discuss private tenancy matters.

Debbie Wiseman, an activist with the Social Justice Co-Op, told CBC News she was surprised by the no-fault eviction.

"It just was not something I thought would happen," Wiseman said Monday.

"When we saw it happen and the city kind of hid behind the fact that it's legal — in our opinion it's not ethical but it's legal — we thought we should do something about that."

Curtis Hicks/CBC

According to Wiseman, an access-to-information request she filed with the city found there have been no other no-fault evictions in at least four years.

"Even if it's just one person, it's really disturbing that somebody was removed from that situation and basically rendered homeless," Wiseman said.

"In our eyes it's a way to kind of discriminate against someone legally. When you look at social housing, affordable housing, it's designed for people with lower income to be able to afford to rent a home."

Cox was moved to an emergency shelter.

Wiseman said only the Yukon and Newfoundland and Labrador allow no-cause evictions.

If the city had offered an explanation for Cox's eviction notice, she said, the problem could have been fixed.

"She was just left with no choice but to be evicted and made homeless," Wiseman said, adding the SJCNL hasn't heard back from the provincial government yet.

CBC News also requested comment from the provincial government.

Newfoundland and Labrador

If next Muskrat Falls tests fail, project won't cross finish line until next winter

Tue, February 7, 2023

The Muskrat Falls hydroelectric dam is pictured on Jan. 26. The project is billions over budget and years behind schedule but could soon cross the finish line.

 (Danny Arsenault/CBC/Radio-Canada - image credit)

Final testing on the Muskrat Falls transmission system begins anew Tuesday. If the tests succeed, the megaproject on Labrador's Churchill River will have finally crossed the finish line, albeit five years later than initially projected.

However, in the case of another failure, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro will have to wait the better part of a year before trying again — a setback that would mean millions in added interest costs for the multibillion-dollar "boondoggle" whose price tag has nearly doubled since 2012.

The reason? High-power testing, during which 700 megawatts of electricity is sent from the Muskrat Falls dam to Newfoundland across more than 1,000 kilometres of power lines, must occur when there's ample backup power elsewhere on the grid, in case the Muskrat Falls lines go down.

Put another way, final testing can only happen during peak demand periods in winter, when demand spikes and more generators are up and running.

"To reliably send that much power into the system and, more importantly, be able to withstand the sudden loss of that power should the tests go wrong, we need to have a lot of generation online and places to sink that load, including sending power off to Nova Scotia," said Hydro's vice-president of engineering and system operator, Rob Collett.

"Cold weather is critical for these tests to be performed."

60,000 customers lost power in November

The last round of tests on Nov. 24 ended in failure, when a software bug led to a measurement problem during power switching. About 60,000 electricity customers in Newfoundland temporarily lost power, according to Hydro.

Collett said it took Hydro two months to find the problem, repair the software and prepare for another series of tests.

"We've drawn a circle around the issue that caused us to fail that test last time. So our view is that we are confident … we will be able to successfully complete this testing and and enable final commissioning of the link," Collet said Friday.

"The winter window is open to us now, and we need to make sure that we get this right in terms of this test."

According to an update Hydro provided Thursday to the Public Utilities Board, which regulates electricity utilities in Newfoundland and Labrador, factory testing of the new software will begin Tuesday. Should those initial tests be successful, the software will then be tested on the Labrador Island Link transmission lines between Feb. 15 and Feb. 28.

At present, the link is approved to transmit a little more than half the electricity the 824-megawatt Muskrat Falls dam can produce.

According to Hydro, each new month of delays adds millions in extra interest costs to the Muskrat Falls project. A Hydro spokesperson couldn't provide an exact estimate but said the Crown corporation would soon provide an update on the total cost of the Muskrat Falls project.

According to the most recent estimates, the cost of the Muskrat Falls project, pegged at $7.4 billion in 2012, has since ballooned to $13.4 billion. Construction was initially expected to end in 2017.