Friday, April 14, 2023

Stop signals reduce dopamine levels and dancing in honeybees


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES HEADQUARTERS


A stop signaler is attacking waggle dancers 

IMAGE: A STOP SIGNALER IS ATTACKING WAGGLE DANCERS view more 

CREDIT: DONG SHIHAO

Researchers from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of California San Diego have revealed that receiving an inhibitory signal (stop signal) associated with negative food conditions can decrease brain dopamine levels in dancing honeybees.

The study was published in Current Biology on April 13.

Dopamine is known as the feel-good neurotransmitter—a chemical that ferries information between neurons. In multiple animals, dopamine is involved in arousal, cognition, and sensitivity to stimuli. It is also associated with seeking and wanting behavior, particularly with the pleasurable experiences of reward.

Honeybees communicate to nestmates the location of resources by performing a waggle dance (i.e., a repetition of movements consisting of a waggle "run" and a return "run" that is unique to each particular resource location). Their behavior type is significantly correlated with dopamine levels in bee heads. Waggle dancers have significantly higher dopamine levels than all other bees.

Honeybees have a sophisticated mechanism for communicating peril. For example, foragers use the stop signal—an inhibitory signal targeted at waggle dancers—to warn of a dangerous or declining food source and to counteract the positive feedback generated by the waggle dance.

According to Dr. DONG Shihao of XTBG, it was unclear, however, how predators affected the honeybee food-wanting system.

"We were wondering whether a signal about danger at a food source could, by itself, decrease foraging motivation and thus reduce brain dopamine levels," said Dr. DONG.

The researchers decided to test the effects of predator threat on the waggle dance and stop signal. They observed that foragers produced no stop signals when they were not attacked. In contrast, when attacked by hornets, foragers completely ceased waggle dancing. Attacked bees also abandoned the dangerous feeder and spent more time in the hive. In both whole-colony and individual measurements, stop signaling sharply increased when bees were attacked by hornets.

"Our study provides the first evidence that receiving a signal associated with negative food conditions (the stop signal) is sufficient to decrease brain dopamine levels in waggle dancers, even when these dancers have not experienced peril," said Prof. TAN Ken from XTBG, corresponding author of the study.

Moreover, the researchers discovered that increasing bee dopamine levels reduced the aversiveness of hornet attacks. Bees that fed on dopamine sucrose solution spent significantly more time staying on the feeder after being attacked by a hornet, produced fewer stop signals when they returned to the hive, and performed more waggle dances than bees that were also attacked but fed pure sucrose solution. Therefore, the fear-inducing effects of an attack could be countered by pharmacologically increasing bee dopamine levels.

"Attacks by hornet predators can reduce brain dopamine levels and cause foragers to pass on such stressful information via stop signals that also reduce brain dopamine levels in recipients. Artificially increasing dopamine levels by feeding bees dopamine would reduce the aversive effects of hornet attacks," said Prof. TAN.

A hornet is preying on honeybees

CREDIT

DONG Shihao

The 2020 election saw fewer people clicking on misinformation websites, Stanford study finds


Stanford scholars find a smaller percentage of Americans visited unreliable websites in the run-up to the 2020 U.S. election than in 2016 – which suggests mitigation and education efforts to identify misinformation are working.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

STANFORD UNIVERSITY

In the run-up to the 2020 election, people appear to have become savvier in spotting misinformation online: clicks onto unreliable websites have declined, according to a new Stanford study published April 13 in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. According to prior research, some 44.3 percent of Americans visited websites during the 2016 U.S. election that repeatedly made false or misleading information. 

During the 2020 election, Stanford scholars saw that number drop by nearly half to 26.2 percent.

While these findings are promising, the scholars are cautious in interpreting the study’s results. Exposure even among fewer people can still have serious consequences, they noted in the paper. Extrapolating their results, the scholars estimated that nearly 68 million Americans made a total of 1.5 billion visits to untrustworthy websites during the 2020 election.

“Although we saw a serious reduction in the overall number of people exposed to misinformation on the web, misinformation remains a serious problem in the information ecosystem for some populations, especially older adults and diverse communities,” said Jeff Hancock, a professor of communication in Stanford’s School of Humanities and Sciences and senior author of the study.

The scholars found that those who did visit websites touting false claims tended to be older and lean more to the right of the political spectrum, a finding consistent with 2016 data. They did however visit fewer untrustworthy websites and spend less time on them than they did in 2016.

How the study worked

The study builds on previous research conducted by Andrew Guess at Princeton University. In 2016, Guess compiled a list of some 490 untrustworthy websites that included pages that prominent researchers in the disinformation research community had previously identified, including Stanford economist Matthew Gentzkow.

Here, Hancock, along with Stanford PhD students Ryan Moore and Ross Dahike, augmented the list with an additional 1,240 unreliable domains from NewsGuard, an organization that rates the credibility of news and information websites. Their rankings are done manually by experienced journalists and editors who rigorously review and rank websites on a variety of criteria, including whether they repeatedly publish false content, issue corrections on errors in their reporting, and distinguish between news and opinion.

The Stanford researchers then recruited a representative sample of 1,151 American adults through the polling firm, YouGov. Participants completed an online survey and installed a browser plugin that allowed the researchers to passively track web activity between Oct. 2, 2020, and Nov. 9, 2020. In sum, they gathered some 7.5 million website visits on users’ desktop and mobile devices.

So, who reads false news online and how did they find it?

The scholars found that in 2020, 5.6 percent of visits to untrustworthy websites were referred to by Facebook – in 2016, it was 15.1 percent. The scholars credit this decrease to efforts the social media platform took to mitigate the issue of false news on the website.

“The drop in visits referred by Facebook may reflect investment in trust and safety efforts to decrease the prevalence of misinformation on their platform, such as flagging, content moderation, and user education, which they and other platforms weren’t doing as much of in 2016,” said Moore.

While the scholars found that the average number of times a person visited a misinformation website decreased from an average of 32 visits in 2016 to 23 visits in 2020, there are a few individuals who still consumed misinformation online at extremely high clicks. “There are some people still consuming hundreds of misinformation websites,” said Dahlke. “We need more research to understand the effect of this type of exposure on people’s beliefs and actions.”

The scholars also found that older adults were twice as likely to visit a misinformation website compared to those aged 18-29 years old. While a smaller percentage of Americans 65 and older were exposed in 2020 (56.2 percent) than in 2016 (37.4 percent), they continue to consume misinformation at much higher rates than younger adults.

“Older adults continue to be targeted by misinformation purveyors because that generation tends to be wealthier and more civically engaged than other generations, making them prime targets for bad actors trying to make money or change election outcomes,” said Hancock.

Misinformation evolves, mutates

Misinformation is pernicious, it morphs and mutates quickly, the scholars said.

“While one could interpret our findings as evidence that the problem of online misinformation is improving in some way, they could also be interpreted as evidence that the nature of the problem is changing,” the scholars write in the paper.

The scholars only studied web browsing activity, and misinformation could have been displaced to other social media platforms or encrypted messaging services, such as WhatsApp or Signal. Moreover, a click is not the only metric of fake news consumption; people could have still consumed untrustworthy information passively online through a meme or even just skimming a headline when scrolling through news feeds. All of these factors make it a difficult topic to study.

Looking ahead to the 2024 election

Hancock, Moore, and Dahike are already thinking about what their findings might reveal about how misinformation will spread in the next general election in 2024.

They anticipate that older adults will continue to be vulnerable to fake news, an issue that Hancock’s Social Media Lab has separately been working to address with support from the Stanford Impact Lab program. In 2020, Hancock and Moore collaborated with the nonprofit news organization Poynter to create a digital media literacy intervention to help seniors identify misinformation online.

They are also concerned about the role of misinformation in under-resourced areas, such as non-English speaking communities, as highlighted in a recent paper Hancock and Moore co-authored with Stanford PhD student Angela Y. Lee on the topic.

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Conservation: Red-throated loons avoid North Sea windfarms

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

Offshore wind farms in the North Sea reduce the population of loons –fish-eating aquatic birds also known as divers – by 94% within a one-kilometre zone, according to new research published in Scientific Reports. The findings highlight the need to minimise the impact of offshore wind farms on seabirds, while balancing this effort with the demand for renewable energy.

Previous research has found that different seabird species respond to offshore windfarms differently – they may avoid the area which can lead to habitat displacement or they may be attracted to the area which can increase mortality via collisions with the turbines. However, it is difficult to estimate the long-term population impacts of offshore windfarms on seabird populations.

Stefan Garthe and colleagues investigated how red-throated loon abundance changed before and after the construction of five offshore windfarm clusters in the southeastern North Sea dubbed BARD/Austerngrund, Dan Tysk, Butendiek, Helgoland, and North of Borkum. The authors used data on loon numbers from ships, aircraft, and digital aerial surveys collected during March and April between 2010 and 2017. They modelled how the density of loon populations changed within the area up to and beyond ten kilometres away from the windfarm.

The authors report that distribution and abundance of loons changed significantly after the windfarms were built, with a low abundance of loons in the immediate vicinity of the turbines creating a ‘halo effect’. Loon numbers decreased by 94% within one kilometre of the windfarms, and 54% within ten kilometres. In particular, loons completely disappeared from the vicinity of BARD/Austerngrund and North of Borkum windfarm clusters. The birds instead congregated at high densities in an area to the north west of the Helgoland windfarm cluster.  Overall, the total population estimate of loons fell by 29.24% from 34,865 individuals before windfarm construction to 24,672 birds after construction. The authors report that no other seabirds had such a significant negative reaction to the presence of the windfarms.

The authors suggest that the construction of the offshore windfarms will have affected how the loons forage for fish, as their movements are now restricted to smaller areas. They recommend increasing the study of cumulative effects of windfarms throughout the year across the entire region of farms.

Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books.  The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). More information can be found here.

Time out: We all need a three-day weekend

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA

chill in the sunset 

IMAGE: PEOPLE ARE MORE ACTIVE WHEN THEY WERE ON HOLIDAY, EVEN WHEN THEY ONLY HAVE A THREE-DAY BREAK. view more 

CREDIT: CC BY 2.0 LITTLEYIYE

As a four-day work week is trialled in countries across the globe, health researchers at the University of South Australia say they’re ‘all in’ when it comes to a long weekend, especially as new empirical research shows that the extra time off is good for our health.

 

Assessing changes in daily movements before, during and after holidays, researchers found that people displayed more active, healthy behaviours when they were on holiday, even when they only had a three-day break.

 

Across the 13-month study period, people generally took an average two to three holidays, each being around 12 days. The most common holiday type was ‘outdoor recreation’ (35 per cent), followed by ‘family/social events’ (31 per cent), ‘rest and relaxation’ (17 per cent) and ‘non-leisure pursuits’ such as caring for others or home renovations (17 per cent).

 

Specifically, it showed that on holiday people:

  • engaged in 13 per cent more moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) each day (or five min/day more)
  • were five per cent less sedentary each day (or 29 min/day less)
  • slept four per cent more each day (or 21 min/day more).

 

UniSA researcher Dr Ty Ferguson says that the research indicates that people display healthier behaviours when they are on holiday.

“When people go on holiday, they’re changing their everyday responsibilities because they’re not locked down to their normal schedule,” Dr Ferguson says.

“In this study, we found that movement patterns changed for the better when on holiday, with increased physical activity and decreased sedentary behaviour observed across the board.

“We also found that people gained an extra 21 minutes of sleep each day they were on holiday, which can have a range of positive effects on our physical and mental health. For example, getting enough sleep can help improve our mood, cognitive function, and productivity. It can also help lower our risk of developing a range of health conditions, such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and depression.

“Interestingly, the size of these changes increased in line with the length of the holiday – so the longer the holiday, the better the health benefits.”

The study used data from the Annual rhythms in adults’ lifestyle and health (ARIA) study where 308 adults (mean age 40.4 years) wore fitness trackers 24 hours a day for 13 months. Minute-by-minute movement behaviour data were aggregated into daily totals to compare movement behaviours pre-holiday, during holiday and post-holiday.

Senior researcher UniSA’s Prof Carol Maher says that the study offers support for the growing movement for a four-day week.

“A shorter working week is being trialled by companies all over the world. Not surprisingly, employees reported less stress, burnout, fatigue, as well as better mental health and improved work-life balance,” Prof Maher says.

“This study provides empirical evidence that people have healthier lifestyle patterns when they have a short break, such as a three-day weekend. This increase in physical activity and sleep is expected to have positive effects on both mental and physical health, contributing to the benefits observed with a four-day work week.

“Importantly, our study also showed that even after a short holiday, people’s increased sleep remained elevated for two weeks, showing that the health benefits of a three-day break can have lasting effects beyond the holiday itself.

“As the world adapts to a new normal, perhaps it's time to embrace the long weekend as a way to boost our physical and mental health.”

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Contact for interview: Dr Ty Ferguson E: Ty.Ferguson@unisa.edu.au
Media contact: Annabel Mansfield M: +61 479 182 489 E: Annabel.Mansfield@unisa.edu.au 

Eastern wolves evolved separately from grey wolves

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS USA

Eastern Wolves from Algonquin Provincial Park, Whitney, Ontario 

IMAGE: EASTERN WOLVES FROM ALGONQUIN PROVINCIAL PARK, WHITNEY, ONTARIO view more 

CREDIT: DAVE CIUFO/ MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION

A new paper in Molecular Biology and Evolution, published by Oxford University Press, provides interesting new evidence about the evolution of North American wolves, which has been a subject of debate among conservationists and taxonomists.

Southeastern Canada is home to populations of wolves and coyotes whose origins and genetic relationships have long puzzled scientists. In particular, eastern wolves have been the subject of great dispute, and it remains unknown whether these canids represent a distinct species or if they are the result of recent hybridization between coyotes and grey wolves. The Canidae animal family includes coyotes, foxes, jackals, wolves, and domestic dogs.

In Canada, the eastern wolf (also known as the eastern timber wolf or the Algonquin wolf) has been recognized by some as a distinct species based on genetic and behavioral studies. Eastern wolves are listed as “Special Concern” in Canada under the federal Species at Risk Act and “Threatened” in Ontario under the provincial Endangered Species Act. But whereas previous studies have noted the distinctiveness of eastern wolves from coyotes and grey wolves in Canada, the provincial government currently manages them as a single species across their primary range in central Ontario. This pooling of these three taxonomic entities for management is considered necessary because it is so difficult for humans to visually distinguish between wild canids and their hybrids in central Ontario. This leads to frustration among some hunters, trappers, and farmers, and challenges in enforcing hunting and trapping regulations.

To test hypotheses related to these competing findings for eastern wolves, researchers sequenced whole genomes of 25 animals of known origin and levels of contemporary hybridization, representative of all Canadian wolf-like canid types. The analysis shows that eastern wolves that inhabit the Great Lakes region in southeastern Canada are genetically distinct from other canids in the region. Based on the findings it appears that eastern wolves evolved separately from grey wolves about 67,000 years ago. The scientists here believe that eastern wolves bred with coyotes about 37,000 years ago and continue to mix with both coyotes and grey wolves.

“This manuscript addresses key evolutionary questions among North American wolf-like canids, but also provides data of direct and applied relevance,” said the paper’s lead author, Christopher Kyle. “This work represents a strong international collaboration that culminates from complementary expertise between wolf experts from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry and scholars from the University of Ferrara in Italy, and Trent University in Ontario, Canada, with a long-standing interest in North American Canis ancestry and genetics.”

The paper, “Tracing eastern wolf origins from whole-genome data in context of extensive hybridization,” is available (at midnight on April 13th ) at: https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/molbev/msad055.

Direct correspondence to: 
Christopher J. Kyle
Professor of Forensic Science
Trent University 
1600 West Bank Drive
Peterborough, ON K9L 0G2 CANADA
christopherkyle@trentu.ca

To request a copy of the study, please contact:
Daniel Luzer 
daniel.luzer@oup.com

New studies push back evidence for open habitats in Africa by more than 10 million years


U of M researchers shift the narrative of human evolution through paleontological and geological fieldwork

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

Habitat reconstruction 

IMAGE: USING RIGOROUS AND DETAILED COLLECTION METHODS, RESEARCHERS WERE ABLE TO PLACE THE REMAINS OF FOSSIL APES, SUCH AS MOROTOPITHECUS, WITHIN DETAILED HABITAT RECONSTRUCTIONS. view more 

CREDIT: CORBIN RAINBOLT

The story of human evolution has long been a tale of a forested Africa that gradually became drier, giving rise to open grasslands and causing our forest-loving ape ancestors to abandon the trees and become bipedal. Even though ecological and fossil evidence suggested this narrative was too simplistic, the theory remains prominent in many evolutionary scenarios. 

Two new studies recently published in Science led by researchers at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities put this idea to rest. The findings outline paleoecological reconstructions of early ape fossil sites in eastern Africa dated to the Early Miocene — between 23 and 16 million years ago — showing early apes lived in a wide variety of habitats, including open habitats like scrublands and wooded grasslands that existed 10 million years earlier than previously known.

Research findings include:

  • Some of these habitats included substantial C4 plant biomass, grasses that today characterize tropical savannas, but were thought previously to have become dominant only 10 million years ago. 
  • Modern ape anatomy may have evolved in open woodlands among leaf-eating apes rather than in forest-dwelling fruit-eating apes.
  • The combination of open habitats with significant C4 biomass in the Early Miocene suggests that traditional scenarios regarding the evolution of animal and plant communities in Africa, including the origin of hominins, need to be reconsidered.

Researchers across nine fossil site complexes — which included 30 experts from African, North American and European institutions — conducted paleontological and geological fieldwork, collecting thousands of fossil plant and animal remains and sampling fossil deposits for multiple lines of evidence to reconstruct the ancient habitats.

“None of us could have reached these conclusions working in isolation at our individual fossil sites,” said Kieran McNulty, a professor of Anthropology in the College of Liberal Arts, lead author and organizer of the decade-long Research on East African Catarrhine and Hominoid Evolution (REACHE) project. “Working in the fossil record is challenging. We discover hints about past life and need to assemble and interpret them across space and time. It’s like a 4D puzzle, where each team member can only see some of the pieces."

“You go into a project like this not knowing for sure what you will find out, which is exciting. In this case, we realized we were looking at a picture of Early Miocene communities in eastern Africa that is quite different than what we had expected,” said David Fox, a professor in the Earth and Environmental Sciences Department in the College of Science and Engineering. “There was no single ‘ah ha moment’ but over years of field seasons and the steady accumulation of new fossils and new data, we realized that the environments of the earliest apes varied significantly from the traditional picture of forested habitats.”

"The findings have transformed what we thought we knew about early apes, and the origin for where, when and why they navigate through the trees and on the ground in multiple different ways," said Robin Bernstein, program director for biological anthropology at the National Science Foundation. "For the first time, by combining diverse lines of evidence, this collaborative research team tied specific aspects of early ape anatomy to nuanced environmental changes in their habitat in eastern Africa, now revealed as more open and less forested than previously thought. The effort outlines a new framework for future studies regarding ape evolutionary origins."

Continued research at these fossil sites will enhance our understanding of these habitats, especially of finer-grained changes in space and time. Likewise, similar collaborations focused on earlier and later time periods are needed to fully understand the interactions between fossil species and their environments.

“This level of cooperation among different teams is unique in paleoanthropology,” said McNulty. “These two studies highlight the importance of extending collaboration and dialog beyond our immediate research partners.”

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, Leakey Foundation, McKnight Land-Grant Fellowship, and Leverhulme Trust Fellowship.

Righting toppled US ship in drydock will be 'very complicated', warns marine expert

Investigationsm are ongoing into why the vessel owned by the US Navy toppled over in the dry dock (Picture: PA).

Workers face a "very complicated" task of righting a vessel which toppled over while in drydock, a marine expert said as investigations into the incident continue.

Two huge cranes have been placed next to the US Navy vessel the Petrel, which tipped to a 45-degree angle last month, leaving 35 people injured.

The incident sparked a huge emergency service operation at the drydock in Leith, Edinburgh, which is operated by Dales Marine Services.

Iraklis Lazakis, of the University of Strathclyde, said the two cranes are at the vessel’s port side but “no other specific action can be speculated on about righting the vessel”, which he said would be a “very complicated procedure”.

Police remain at the scene, and on Thursday a police car could be seen as workers operated the cranes and moved around the stricken 3,371-tonne vessel.

Both the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and Police Scotland said investigations into the incident, which happened on March 22, are continuing.

A view of the ship Petrel at Imperial Dock in Leith, Edinburgh, which became dislodged from its holding on Wednesday March 22 (Picture: PA).

An HSE spokesman said: "Specialist inspectors from HSE are assessing the technical aspects of the structural collapse and continue to work with Police Scotland on the investigation into this incident."

Dr Lazakis, of the Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Marine Engineering, said for the ship to be put upright a number of aspects need to be considered, including "the potential damage on the outer hull of the vessel on the starboard side, any internal structural damages or otherwise, any transfer of loads internally, and any movements of the keel blocks due to the shifting of the ship".

He added: "One would also need to consider the lifting capacity/radius and angle of lift of the cranes in relation to the ship's lightweight – or lightship – as well as any additional weights or loads within the ship.

'A very complicated procedure'

Dr Lazakis added: "Another way to bring the ship up would be by initially assessing its structural condition externally and internally and shifting of loads etc, as well as performing any repairs needed on the outer hull, repositioning the keel blocks in the drydock if needed as per the ship’s docking plan, then starting to flood the drydock very slowly and tilting the vessel upright gradually.

"Overall, this is a very complicated procedure, also considering that, as I understand it, the drydock is used by another vessel I believe.

"I cannot speculate on how long this would take as there are so many unknowns at the moment."

The Petrel

The 76m-long Petrel was once owned by the late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, who bought the ship to locate historically significant shipwrecks and discovered 30 sunken warships, including the Japanese Imperial Navy's IJN Musashi.

But in 2022 the Isle of Man-registered vessel was sold to the US Navy and is now operated by American-owned firm Oceaneering International.

The Petrel has been moored at Imperial Drydock in Leith since September 3, 2020, due to "operational challenges" from the pandemic.

Twenty-three people injured in the incident were taken to hospital and 12 were treated at the scene.

Oil Workers In Restive Kazakh Town Resume Rallies Demanding Jobs
The oil workers held a similar protest in the capital, Astana, earlier this week before they were dispersed by police and sent back to Zhanaozen.

April 14, 2023
By RFE/RL's Kazakh Service

ZHANAOZEN, Kazakhstan -- About 100 oil workers have resumed protests in Kazakhstan's volatile town of Zhanaozen to demand jobs after a similar protest they held in Astana was forcibly dispersed earlier this week and the demonstrators were sent home.

The workers gathered on April 14 in front of the offices of OzenMunaiGaz, a subsidiary of the oil-rich nation's energy giant KazMunaiGaz, demanding jobs after they lost their positions because their former employer, BerAli Manghystau Company, recently lost a tender.

The protesters said they will stay at the site until all their demands are met.

Officials at OzenMunaiGaz have said there are no vacancies at the company.

On April 11, at least 80 former workers of BerAli Manghystau Company were detained in Astana after they spent a night in front of the Energy Ministry building demanding jobs at OzenMunaiGaz.

They were released late in the night and the majority of them were forced to leave Astana for Zhanaozen by train early in the morning on April 12. Less than a dozen of the workers remains in the capital.

On April 12, a court in Astana sentenced opposition politician Nurzhan Altaev to 15 days in jail over his support for the workers. The court found the politician guilty of violating regulations on holding public gatherings.

Zhanaozen, located in Kazakhstan's southwest, was the scene of mass anti-government rallies in 2011 staged by oil workers that resulted in the deaths of at least 16 people when police opened fire on unarmed protesters.

In early January last year, other protests in the restive town over abrupt energy price hikes quickly spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet republic and led to violent clashes in the country's largest city, Almaty, and elsewhere that left at least 238 people, including 19 law enforcement officers, dead.

President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev then moved to deprive influential former President Nursultan Nazarbaev of his lifetime post atop the Kazakh Security Council, taking the post himself.

The crisis prompted Toqaev to seek help from troops from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to quell the unrest.

Toqaev's moves since then appear aimed at weakening Nazarbaev, his relatives and close allies.
Kristof: How United States can avoid a war with China

We’re again too complacent about the risks of conflict ahead


A supporter of Taiwan holds a sign reading “I am Chinese, I stand for Taiwan’s Independence” in front of the Westin Bonaventure hotel where Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will spend the night ahead of meeting with Kevin McCarthy, in Los Angeles, April 4, 2023. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

By NICHOLAS KRISTOF |
PUBLISHED: April 14, 2023 

In the summer of 1914, few wanted war or thought a major war was possible. My grandparents were married that spring in Lviv, Austria-Hungary, and I look at their giddy wedding photos and realize they had no clue that a cataclysm would soon erase their country, shatter their lives and eventually send a branch of the family fleeing to the New World.

This year I sometimes worry that we’re again too complacent about the risks of conflict ahead. And perhaps the worst geopolitical risk over the next decade or two is a war with China. While neither side wants war, each now accepts that conflict may be looming and is preparing accordingly — driving suspicions on the other side and fueling an arms race.

It’s time for both sides to take a deep breath and step back from rhetoric and symbolic jabs that rally nationalists at home but that also increase the risks of a global catastrophe. A reminder of the risks came on Monday when China responded to the warm welcome given in the United States to Taiwan’s president by sending a record number of military aircraft near Taiwan.

From an American vantage point, another cold war may not seem so terrible, since we and the Russians managed to avoid incinerating each other in the last one. But millions died in the last cold war in proxy war zones from Vietnam to Angola. And Russia and the United States avoided nuclear war in part because leaders on each side had memories of World War II that made them cautious. I worry that today, as in 1914, overconfidence and myopic political pressures on each side might drive continuing escalation.

I need no reminder of how oppressive China can be. I was on Tiananmen Square in June 1989 and witnessed as the People’s Liberation Army fired on the crowd that I was in. But I also saw China lifting more people out of poverty than any other country in history and vastly improving education and health outcomes. We in the United States have to grapple with the uncomfortable reality that a newborn in Beijing may not be able to look forward to a meaningful vote or to free speech but has a life expectancy seven years longer than that of a newborn in Washington, D.C.

When I say we must talk to each other, I am not downplaying American concerns. I’m among those wary of TikTok because of the risk that it might be used for spying. But I also know that the United States has similarly used private businesses to spy on China.

I think the United States should press China harder on some issues, such as the reckless way Chinese companies export chemicals to Mexico that are turned into fentanyl. That Chinese-origin fentanyl kills many thousands of Americans each year, and it’s hard to see why the deaths of so many aren’t higher on the bilateral agenda.

But we also need humility. America’s politicians, pharma companies and regulators themselves catastrophically bungled the opioid crisis. Why should we expect Chinese leaders to care more about young American lives than our own leaders do?

Fulmination is not a policy, and it alienates the ordinary Chinese citizens who are that country’s best hope after Xi has left the scene. That’s the long game.

The single biggest step the United States could take would simply be to tackle American dysfunction — from addiction to child poverty and our failed foster care system — and to invest in our education system so as to produce stronger citizens and a more robust nation. That, not prickly nationalism, is the lesson we should take from China — and is the best way for us to meet the China challenge.

Nicholas Kristof is a New York Times columnist.