Why high school kids are saying no to alcohol

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO

 

IMAGE: DR JUDE BALL. view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO.

Striking differences in the way high school students socialise may be one of the reasons behind a dramatic drop in youth drinking over the last 20 years, a study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, has found.

Public health researcher Dr Jude Ball has compared attitudes to drinking among high school students in 1999-2001 to those in 2022.

Dr Ball and colleagues Dr Michaela Pettie and Loleseti Poasa interviewed 64 students aged between 14 and 17 at a co-ed school in Wellington in 2022, and compared their views to 41 Christchurch students aged 14-17 who took part in a 1999-2001 study, the Adolescent Friendships and Lifestyles Project.

Their findings are published today in the Asia Pacific journal, Drug and Alcohol Review.

Dr Ball says more than half of those who were in high school 20 years ago were regularly drinking and going to parties by the time they were in Year 10. By Year 12, all had at least some experience of using alcohol with their peers.

“The majority had been drunk at least once or twice and many drank to intoxication on a weekly basis.”

By contrast, only one of the Year 10 students interviewed last year reported drinking alcohol socially.

“Most had never had more than a few sips of alcohol. Even among the students in Years 11 and 12, about three-quarters were abstinent or drank moderately on rare occasions, often with family, rather than with friends.”

She says the reasons behind the change in attitudes are complex, but it seems social media and spending time online is replacing the drinking and partying of teens 20 years ago.

“Parties used to enable young people to expand their social circle, meet potential romantic partners, or take an existing friendship to a romantic or sexual level. Now adolescents can expand their social circle, meet potential romantic partners and try on a more flirtatious and confident persona – all without leaving the house.”

Dr Ball says not drinking is now far more socially acceptable among teens than it used to be.

“Twenty years ago, Year 10 students described a social hierarchy, with early adopters of alcohol at the top and non-drinking ‘nerds’ at the bottom. By Year 12, drinking was seen as an almost compulsory aspect of teen socialising, particularly for males.

“In contrast, non-drinking was the norm for many contemporary adolescents. Although alcohol was part of social life for some friend groups, many teens described active social lives that did not involve the use of alcohol or other substances.”

Dr Ball says a greater acceptance of diversity and more respect for individuals making their own personal choices had removed peer pressure to drink alcohol among contemporary teens.

One Year 11 student commented: “It feels like there aren’t (such) strict unwritten rules for being a teenager … maybe it’s because the internet has made liking different things much more prevalent … I think people are just more understanding of the fact that everyone’s different.”

Some contemporary adolescents regarded drinking or a party lifestyle as a risk to their personal ambitions and an unproductive use of time and money.

One student commented: “I’ve got better things to do than party … I’m looking out for my future here. I can’t have this distraction.”

Dr Ball says there was also a much stronger awareness of alcohol-related risks among the new generation.

“Many mentioned the long-term health risks associated with alcohol, including cancer, liver damage, and the impact of substance use on brain development.”

They were also more likely to worry about the risk of becoming addicted.

“Today’s youth are more likely to regard drinking as a high risk activity with few benefits, while in the past, not drinking alcohol was socially risky.”

Dr Ball says it is unclear whether the changes in the attitudes of 14-17 year olds over the past 20 years reflects a unique generation who will remain ‘dry’ throughout their lives, or just one which is  delaying alcohol use and will ‘catch up’ with previous generations when they reach early adulthood.

“New Zealand evidence suggests binge drinking remains highly prevalent in early adulthood, and despite declining alcohol use in high school students, binge drinking in older adolescents remains much higher here than in other countries like Australia and the US. Policy changes to reduce alcohol harm among young people is still an important public health priority.”

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JOURNAL

Drug and Alcohol Review

DOI

10.1111/dar.13685 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Understanding youth drinking decline: Similarity and change in the function and social meaning of alcohol use (and non-use) in adolescent cohorts 20 years apart

Groundbreaking images of root chemicals offer new insights on plant growth

Technology used in cancer research leads to roadmap of chemicals important for agriculture, food production and climate resilience

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

 

IMAGE: UC SAN DIEGO AND STANFORD SCIENTISTS STUDIED MAIZE (CORN) PLANT ROOTS AND THEIR METABOLITES—MOLECULES INVOLVED IN THE PLANT’S ENERGY PRODUCTION—UNDER DIFFERENT SETTINGS, INCLUDING A CONTROL CONDITION (LEFT) AND TREATED WITH ACONITATE (CENTER) AND SUCCINATE (RIGHT). view more 

CREDIT: DICKINSON LAB, UC SAN DIEGO

On a sunny springtime stroll through a park, it’s easy to ignore the parts of plants that are hidden from view. Plant biologists see things differently. They look below the surface where plant roots are organized in elaborate systems that are critical to the organism’s development. Intricately organized tree root systems, for example, can span as far underground as the tree grows high above the soil.

Applying an advanced imaging technology to plant roots, researchers at the University of California San Diego and Stanford University have developed a new understanding of essential root chemicals that are responsible for plant growth. Using a type of mass spectrometer, a study led by UC San Diego Biological Sciences Postdoctoral Scholar Tao Zhang and Assistant Professor Alexandra Dickinson produced a “roadmap” that profiles where key small molecules are distributed along stem cells of maize (corn) plant roots and how their placement factors into the plant’s maturation. The findings were published in the journal Nature Communications.

“This chemical roadmap provides a resource that scientists can use to find new ways of regulating plant growth,” said Dickinson, a faculty member in the Department of Cell and Developmental Biology. “Having more information about how roots grow could be useful in conservation as we think about protecting our plants in natural environments and making them more sustainable, especially in agriculture.”

While working as a visiting scientist at Stanford University, Dickinson began collaborating with study co-first author Sarah Noll and Professor Richard Zare, who developed a mass spectrometry imaging system that helps surgeons distinguish between cancerous and benign tissue during tumor-removal operations.

Dickinson, Zare and Noll adapted the technology—called “desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry imaging” or DESI-MSI—to probe plant roots for the chemicals involved in growth and energy production. They initially focused on maize plants at the root tips, where stem cells play an active role in the plant’s development. Their method involved cutting through the center of the root to get a clear image of the chemicals inside.

“To help understand plant roots from the biology side, we needed to find out which chemicals are there,” said Zare. “Our imaging system sprays out droplets that strike different portions of the root and dissolve chemicals at that location. A mass spectrometer collects the droplet splash and tells us what those dissolved chemicals are. By systematically scanning the droplet target spot we make a spatial map of the root chemicals.”

The resulting images, believed to be some of the first to reveal the transition between stem cells and mature root tissue, show the foundational role of metabolites—molecules involved in the plant’s energy production. Tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle metabolites became the focus of the research since they were found to be a key player in controlling root development.

Coming into the study, the researchers expected a relatively uniform distribution of chemicals. Instead, with their chemical roadmap in hand, they found that TCA metabolites are clustered in patches across the root.

“I was surprised by how many chemicals are featured in really distinct patterns,” said Dickinson. “We can see that the plant is doing this on purpose—it needs these molecules in specific regions to grow properly.” The Dickinson lab showed that these TCA metabolites have predictable effects in development, not only in maize, but in another plant species as well (Arabidopsis). This is likely because TCA metabolites are highly conserved—they are made in all plants as well as animals.

Also emerging from the new images were previously unidentified chemical compounds. Dickinson says the mystery compounds could be critical for plant growth since they also are grouped in patterns at specific locations, suggesting a prominent role in development. Dickinson and her colleagues are now investigating these compounds and comparing varieties of maize that have different levels of stress resistance for adverse threats such as severe climate conditions and drought. The new information will help them develop novel chemical and genetic strategies for improving plant growth and stress resilience.

“We’re looking at different maize plants that have drought resistance to see if we’ve already found chemicals that are specific to that variety that we haven’t seen in other varieties,” said Dickinson. “We think that could be a way to find new compounds that can promote growth, especially in harsh conditions.”

The study’s full author list includes: Tao Zhang, Sarah Noll,  Jesus Peng, Amman Klair, Abigail Tripka, Nathan Stutzman, Casey Cheng, Richard Zare and Alexandra Dickinson.

Imaging Plant Root Growth 

Researchers used an advanced imaging technology to develop a new understanding of essential root chemicals that are responsible for plant growth.

CREDIT

Dickinson Lab, UC San Diego

JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-023-38150-z 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Cells

ARTICLE TITLE

Chemical imaging reveals diverse functions of tricarboxylic acid metabolites in root growth and development

Early toilets reveal dysentery in Old Testament Jerusalem

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

 

IMAGE: THE TOILET SEAT TAKEN FROM THE HOUSE OF AHIEL, EXCAVATED IN THE OLD CITY OF JERUSALEM. A DOMESTIC BUILDING MADE UP OF SEVEN ROOMS, IT WOULD HAVE HOUSED AN UPPER-CLASS FAMILY AT THE TIME. DATE OF CONSTRUCTION IS HARD TO PIN DOWN, WITH SOME PLACING IT AROUND THE 8TH CENTURY BCE. view more 

CREDIT: F. VUKASAVOVIC

A new analysis of ancient faeces taken from two Jerusalem latrines dating back to the biblical Kingdom of Judah has uncovered traces of a single-celled microorganism Giardia duodenalis – a common cause of debilitating diarrhoea in humans.

A research team led by the University of Cambridge say it is the oldest example we have of this diarrhoea-causing parasite infecting humans anywhere on the planet. The study is published in the journal Parasitology.  

“The fact that these parasites were present in sediment from two Iron Age Jerusalem cesspits suggests that dysentery was endemic in the Kingdom of Judah,” said study lead author Dr Piers Mitchell from Cambridge’s Department of Archaeology.

“Dysentery is a term that describes intestinal infectious diseases caused by parasites and bacteria that trigger diarrhoea, abdominal cramps, fever and dehydration. It can be fatal, particularly for young children.”

“Dysentery is spread by faeces contaminating drinking water or food, and we suspected it could have been a big problem in early cities of the ancient Near East due to over-crowding, heat and flies, and limited water available in the summer,” said Mitchell.

The faecal samples came from the sediment underneath toilets found in two building complexes excavated to the south of the Old City, which date back to the 7th century BCE when Jerusalem was a capital of Judah.

During this time, Judah was a vassal state under the control of the Assyrian Empire, which at its height stretched from the Levant to the Persian Gulf, incorporating much of modern-day Iran and Iraq. Jerusalem would have been a flourishing political and religious hub estimated to have had between 8,000 and 25,000 residents.

Both toilets had carved stone seats almost identical in design: a shallow curved surface for sitting, with a large central hole for defecation and an adjacent hole at the front for male urination. “Toilets with cesspits from this time are relatively rare and were usually made only for the elite,” said Mitchell.

One was from a lavishly decorated estate at Armon ha-Natziv, surrounded by an ornamental garden. The site, excavated in 2019, probably dates from the days of King Manasseh, a client king for the Assyrians who ruled for fifty years in the mid-7th century.

The site of the other toilet, known as the House of Ahiel, was a domestic building made up of seven rooms, housing an upper-class family at the time. Date of construction is hard to pin down, with some placing it around the 8th century BCE.

However, its destruction is safely dated to 586 BCE, when Babylonian ruler Nebuchadnezzar II brutally sacked Jerusalem for a second time after its citizens refused to pay their agreed tribute, bringing to an end the Kingdom of Judah.

The toilet seat from the estate at Armon ha-Natziv. The site, excavated in 2019, probably dates from the days of King Manasseh, a client king for the Assyrians who ruled for fifty years in the mid-7th century.

CREDIT

Ya’akov Billig

Ancient medical texts from Mesopotamia during the first and second millennium BCE describe diarrhoea affecting the populations of what is now the Near and Middle East. One example reads: “If a person eats bread and drinks beer and subsequently his stomach is colicky, he has cramps and has a flowing of the bowels, setu has gotten him”.

The cuneiform word often used in these texts to describe diarrhoea was sà si-sá. Some texts also included recommended incantations for reciting to increase the chances of recovery.

“These early written sources do not provide causes of diarrhoea, but they encourage us to apply modern techniques to investigate which pathogens might have been involved,” said Mitchell. “We know for sure that Giardia was one of those infections responsible.”

The team investigated the two-and-a-half-thousand year-old decomposed biblical period faeces by applying a bio-molecular technique called “ELISA”, in which antibodies bind onto the proteins uniquely produced by particular species of single-celled organisms.

“Unlike the eggs of other intestinal parasites, the protozoa that cause dysentery are fragile and extremely hard to detect in ancient samples through microscopes without using antibodies,” said co-author and Cambridge PhD candidate Tianyi Wang.

The researchers tested for Entamoeba, Giardia and Cryptosporidium: three parasitic microorganisms that are among the most common causes of diarrhoea in humans, and behind outbreaks of dysentery. Tests for Entamoeba and Cryptosporidium were negative, but those for Giardia were repeatedly positive.

Previous research has dated traces of the Entamoeba parasite, which also causes dysentery, as far back as Neolithic Greece over 4,000 years ago. Previous work has also shown that users of ancient Judean toilets were infected by other intestinal parasites including whipworm, tapeworm and pinworm.

This research was undertaken through a collaboration between the University of Cambridge, Tel Aviv University, and the Israel Antiquities Authority.

---

JOURNAL

Parasitology

DOI

10.1017/S0031182023000410 

ARTICLE TITLE

Giardia duodenalis and dysentery in Iron Age Jerusalem (7th–6th century BCE)

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

26-May-2023

TODAY IS ELECTION DAY

Alberta’s party leaders are ignoring the climate crisis while the region burns



Monday’s election is going to be a political nail-biter but neither candidate has discussed a post oil and gas world

Leyland Cecco in Toronto

THE GUARDIAN

Sun 28 May 2023 

Record-breaking wildfires have charred more than a million hectares of land in Alberta, pushing tens of thousands from their homes and choking the skies in a thick haze of smoke.

But on the zigzagging campaign trail of the province’s general election, neither party leader has confronted the realities of climate change and how it will likely dramatically reshape life in the Canadian prairies.

Instead, they’ve spent weeks sparring over taxation, health care – and one candidate’s deeply offensive remarks about transgender children.

By all accounts, Alberta’s election on Monday is going to be a political nail-biter, a bitterly contested campaign filled with fears of party mutiny, allegations of judicial interference and an unprecedented political comeback.

But for all the excitement of the race, political scientists are baffled that leaders have repeatedly shied away from confronting the realities of global heating.


‘Like Nagasaki’: devastating wildfires will only get worse, new book warns

“All you need to do is go outside to see what climate change is like and what the effects are, with people fleeing their homes from wildfires,” said Feodor Snagovsky, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta. “The fact that we haven’t talked about it at all during this election cycle is simply flabbergasting. It’s incongruous with reality.”

The province has some of the most abundant oil reserves in the world, the vast majority of which are locked up in bituminous sands. For decades, Alberta’s prosperity has been tied to the vast oil sands mining operations, contributing billions to provincial revenues.

But Snagovsky believes voters in the province already recognize that the world is moving away from fossil fuels.

“Still, it’s going to take some time for people to really reconcile that. It’s difficult to imagine living in a future that doesn’t include the oil and gas industries,” he said, adding that political leaders need to have “adult conversations” with voters about a post oil and gas world.

The tight nature of the race has meant both parties have been silent on the relationship between climate change and the oil and gas industry in the region, despite a recent paper explicitly linking the two.

Instead, incumbent premier Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party (UCP) who has spent months casting herself as Ottawa’s greatest foe, has focused her campaign on the mounting affordability crisis, and pledged to renew her fight against carbon taxes, which she argues hurt ordinary Albertans.

But the UCP, the result of an uneasy pact between fiscal conservatives and a hard-right faction, has struggled to focus on economic messaging amid a flood of controversies.

Smith, who took power after her predecessor Jason Kenney abruptly resigned, was the subject of a damning report by Alberta’s ethics commissioner, which found she broke the province’s Conflicts of Interest Act when she spoke with a homophobic street preacher facing criminal charges, and warned that her actions represented a “threat to democracy”.

That warning came after audio leaked of UCP legislative assembly candidate Jennifer Johnson comparing transgender school students to feces in cookie dough.

Johnson apologized and Smith called the analogy “vile”, warning Johnson would not sit in the UCP caucus if she wins. Smith then walked back that idea, suggesting Johnson could join the caucus if she could “redeem” herself, but was then forced to once again say Johnson wouldn’t be welcomed back.

The close race marks a departure from decades of rule by successive conservative governments and speaks to the chaotic nature of Smith’s tenure, said Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

“We’ve had elections, but we really had dynasties lasting decades. In theory, this race shouldn’t be close. If there was a normal incumbent UCP leader, they would be winning re-election quite easily. So much of this is about the lack of trust and questions over the judgment and competency of Danielle Smith.”

Rachel Notley, the former premier whose New Democrats won a surprise majority in 2015, is hoping to capitalize on that weakness – and to make provincial history by winning another term. Notley has remained popular within her own party and remains within striking distance of a second term as premier.

Notley, who as premier unveiled ambitious environmental policies, has also remained silent on climate change, instead running a campaign largely focused on rebuilding the province’s battered health care system, which was strained under the coronavirus pandemic and faces cuts and the prospect of privatization of certain medical procedures. She has also worked to lure in disaffected conservatives, promising balanced budgets to placate worries her government isn’t fiscally responsible.

Rural Alberta remains firmly conservative, but fierce electoral battles are being fought for urban centres. The NDP is poised to perform strongly in Edmonton, the province’s second largest city, meaning the result in Calgary will determine who forms the provincial government.

To win, the NDP needs to convince Albertans who have voted conservative for most of their life to switch parties – a feat that would have been nearly impossible without the recent scandals around the UCP, says Bratt. In a province that has never had a minority government – or even a close election –pollsters have largely given up trying to predict a winner.

The stakes are high for Notley, whose political future looks uncertain unless she can steer her party to victory. But analysts have also speculated that even with a decisive victory, Smith could be forced out by her own party. In nearly two decades, no conservative premier has served a full term in office, said Bratt, adding that no electoral victory has been enough to stave off disgruntled factions.

“This election has big implications for the province and for Canada,” he said. “I don’t think the drama ends on Monday night.”

Lighting a fire under Alberta’s election discourse

By Rob Miller | Opinion

National Observer| May 27th 2023

It’s understandable that UCP Leader Danielle Smith avoids mentioning climate change as much as possible. File photo

As a yellow haze enshrouded Calgary, I wondered if the wildfire smoke would have any impact on the May 29 provincial election. For many years, climate scientists have been predicting an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme heat, drought and forest fires. The cause is global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels and people are beginning to understand that the consequences are serious. Evacuations, destroyed homes and massive air pollution are unsettling and all too familiar.

Will a dry spring coupled with heat dome temperatures at twice the springtime average be enough for Albertans to consider climate as they go to the polls? Will the acrid smell of trees burning hundreds of kilometres to the north give people pause as they consider voting for pipelines and starting a protracted fight against the federal government’s policies to address the climate crisis?

The United Conservative Party (UCP) has always presented itself as a defender of the oil and gas industry, something that resonates powerfully among the many Albertans employed in the sector. However, Danielle Smith’s campaign is toned down in comparison to former premier Jason Kenney’s rants against the foreign and internal enemies of Alberta’s most important industry

There’s been an obvious shift in sentiment among both politicians and voters. Smith isn’t driving around the campaign trail in the largest pickup truck on the market and the streets of Calgary’s neighbourhoods are noticeably absent of the “I Love Alberta Oil and Gas” signs that littered many lawns in the last election. What was a sea of blue UCP lawn signs four years ago is now balanced and often exceeded by the New Democratic Party (NDP) orange.

It’s understandable that Smith avoids mentioning climate change as much as possible. Why would she talk about a problem when the solution involves reducing and eventually eliminating the global use of fossil fuels? NDP Leader Rachel Notley must also be careful not to campaign too loudly on policies that prepare Alberta for the inevitable global energy transition. Notley is trying hard to avoid being labelled as an enemy of the petro-state


Notley has suffered attack ads over her commitment to a net-zero electrical grid by 2035, in which the UCP has confabulated an astronomical price tag for this election promise.

Smith’s minister of Jobs, Economy and Northern Development and former Wildrose party leader, Brian Jean, has attempted to misconstrue Notley’s support for a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cap as a plan to cap oil and gas production. UCP strategists see any commitment to addressing climate change as a weakness in the opposition that can be exploited with a healthy dose of exaggeration.

According to a recent Abacus Data poll, climate change is well down on the list of election priorities. The cost of living, health care, the economy and keeping taxes low are far greater concerns, while climate change and defending the oil and gas industry are roughly equivalent priorities for voters. Climate change is clearly a sensitive issue that both the NDP and UCP would prefer not to focus on.

Looking at the poll numbers, I have to conclude the apocalyptic haze that descended on Calgary will change very few minds. I believe that renewing and cleaning up our electrical grid makes sense when the province has abundant wind and solar resources, but there are a lot of Albertans who think Smith’s dream of building a pipeline to Hudson’s Bay is the best investment for our children’s future.

The provincial campaign is being fought over many issues, but climate change is the elephant in the room, @winexus writes. #abVote #ClimateCrisis

Economists believe “a carbon tax offers the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary.” I particularly like the fact that the federal carbon tax is rebated to Albertans and actually rewards people who own energy-efficient cars and homes.

Other people in my province hate taxes and are OK with oil companies that don’t pay their taxes. A recent Rural Municipalities Association member survey showed that rural municipalities collectively face an unpaid property tax burden of $268 million from oil and gas companies, which represents a six per cent increase from last year.

The Alberta election is being fought over many issues, but climate change is the elephant in the room. The UCP will set Alberta on a collision course with the inevitable impacts of climate change. They will invest heavily in oilsands production, industry propaganda and dubious technologies like carbon capture and storage. They will be unsupportive of anything that reduces demand for fossil fuels, such as renewable energy, electrification and energy-efficient buildings.

The NDP will plan for an energy transition, diversify the economy and start building a net-zero electrical grid. Notley introduced the “off coal” policy that was designed to eliminate coal-fired electricity generation in Alberta by 2030. The policy was so effective that the goal will be achieved this year. The NDP has demonstrated trustworthy leadership in achieving GHG emissions reductions and is promising to do more if elected.

The choice for Albertans is very clear and will shape the future success of our province. Voters appear to be split down the middle, with half still dreaming of the promise of an “energy superpower” that brings wealth for decades to come.

The other half thinks a different kind of future is possible and is very worried about how unabated global warming will affect the lives of future generations. It remains to be seen if the latest environmental disaster that is polluting the skies of Alberta will tip the scales in favour of a better future.


Rob Miller is a retired systems engineer, formerly with General Dynamics Canada, who now volunteers with the Calgary Climate Hub and writes on behalf of Eco-Elders for Climate Action.

Just how much crazy can Alberta take? We’re about to find out

By Max Fawcett | Opinion, Politics |

NATIONAL OBSERVER

 May 25th 2023

Is Alberta's wild ride with Danielle Smith as premier coming to an end on Monday — or just getting started? Photo by Government of Alberta / Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

After four weeks of relentless campaigning, an endless barrage of partisan advertisements and arguments, and one damning ethics commissioner report, Monday’s provincial election in Alberta will come down to one question: How much anti-LGBTQ bigotry, conspiracy theorizing and American culture war nonsense will voters put up with in the name of keeping corporate taxes low?

Based on the flurry of recent polls that show Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party either in the lead or close to it, the answer will almost certainly be “too much.” This shouldn’t be too surprising given the well-documented fondness in Alberta for not paying taxes and the NDP’s curious decision to announce a tax hike as one of its key platform commitments. This fed into the pre-existing narrative — one the NDP has done almost nothing to complicate — about the party’s general hostility to business and the economy, facts be damned. To revive James Carville’s famous slogan from the 1992 Democratic presidential campaign: it’s still the economy, stupid.

This is understandably frustrating for anyone with a conception of politics that extends beyond their own bank balance. Smith has allied herself with people like Artur Pawlowski, whose long track record of anti-LGBTQ comments includes a recent sermon where he told supporters of abortion and trans rights that he would “hunt you, every step of the way.” She has attracted candidates who compare trans kids to fecal matter and insist schools are showing children pornography in classrooms. And perhaps most infamously, she has compared vaccinated Albertans to supporters of Nazi Germany and Adolf Hitler.

She’s also surrounded by powerful backroom operatives and activists who push things even further than she does. David Parker, the home-schooled leader of Take Back Alberta, has said that “a small fringe minority with unacceptable views has taken over all of your institutions, your legal system, your medical system (and) your education system. They’ve taken over your churches, to some degree.” Ironically, he’s not referring to his own supporters, who believe and say things that clearly place them at the ideological margins of Alberta society. Parker, for example, thinks women who put their careers before having kids are part of a “war between the pro-humans and anti-humans.”

We’ve seen this movie before, of course, with Donald Trump. He was objectively worse than Smith, who at least believes in things like a woman’s right to choose and the LGBTQ community’s right to exist. Trump’s supporters, meanwhile, threatened (and then committed) the sort of rhetorical and literal violence that still remains — for now, at least — offside here in Canada. Americans, to their everlasting discredit, elected him once, almost re-elected him in 2020 and may well return him to office in 2024. For all the right’s self-serving mewling about cancel culture, we clearly live in a world where saying and believing objectively terrible things is not automatically disqualifying — especially if you're promising to cut taxes for rich people.

The same seems to hold true in Alberta. Some voters will try to look past that uncomfortable truth, just as millions of Republicans did with Trump’s racism, homophobia and anti-science ramblings. They’ll focus on things like the tax cuts, smaller government and other ideological hobby horses. They’ll tell themselves (as some UCP campaigners have been telling them, apparently) that Smith will be gone in short order anyways, replaced by a leader who can more reliably advance their economic interests without stirring up a shitstorm in the process.

This is, to be kind, a bit naive. To be less kind, it’s completely delusional. Once you validate this sort of casual cruelty, it only invites and endorses more of it. These voters need only watch Pawlowski’s press conference from Wednesday when he stood on the steps of the legislature and railed against the LGBTQ community and the UCP’s apparent betrayal of his interpretation of reality. They should think hard on why Smith thought it was a good idea to meet with this man, much less promise him the things he claims to have been offered. And they should ask themselves: when push comes to shove (and it always does lately with conservative leaders in Alberta), who do they think Parker and Take Back Alberta will side with?

In time, Smith may have to apologize for inviting that element into the conservative coalition and handing it the reins of power. But as we’ve seen with Trumpism’s continued destruction of America’s political landscape, by the time those apologies are made, it’s already far too late to do much about it. We have one chance to stop that from happening here in Alberta. Let’s hope the voters use it.

Final 2023 Alberta Election Poll: Before the Election – May 27, 2023

Posted on May 27th, 2023


Final 2023 Alberta Election Poll: Before the Election – May 27, 2023

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

Leger recently surveyed Albertans about Alberta politics and their final voting intentions for the 2023 Alberta election poll: before the election.

SOME OF THE KEY FINDINGS OF OUR SURVEY ON THE 2023 ALBERTA ELECTION POLL:

 BEFORE THE ELECTION INCLUDE…With less than a week to go before the next election, UCP takes a narrow lead with 49% of voting intentions among decided voters, while the NDP follows closely behind with 46%.
56% of decided voters in Edmonton are more likely to vote NDP, while those living outside of Edmonton or Calgary are more likely to vote UCP (60%).
55% of Albertans aged 55+ are more likely to vote UCP, while 56% of those aged between 18 and 34 are more likely to vote NDP.
76% of Albertans who will vote for a listed party have made a final decision for who to vote for. 21% indicate that they may change their mind.
80% of decided NDP voters have made a final decision as to who they will vote for.
38% of Albertans feel Danielle Smith and the UCP will win the next provincial election and form the next government.
SURVEY METHODOLOGYA total of n=1,011 online surveys were conducted among Albertans aged 18 or older via Leger’s LEO panel.
The survey was conducted from May 23 to 25, 2023, using computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) technology.
Using data from the 2021 Census, the results were weighted according to age, gender, and region in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.
As a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported. If the data were collected through a random sample, the margin of error for a sample size of n=1,011 would be ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

CBC News poll suggests United Conservative Party headed for victory in Alberta

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UCP leads province-wide, but race remains competitive in battleground Calgary, according to CBC News poll

Brooks DeCillia · CBC News · Posted: May 26, 2023 

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley, left, and UCP Leader Danielle Smith prepare for a debate in Edmonton on Thursday, May 18, 2023. While most Albertans seem to prefer the UCP over the NDP, voters appear to have identical impressions of the two parties’ leaders. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

After trailing in the polls for years, the United Conservative Party appears poised to win a majority next Monday, according to a new CBC News poll.

"If you asked me four months ago how I thought this election was going to turn out, I'd say the NDP was going cruise to victory," said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Alberta voters.

Brown thinks the ruling UCP turned things around with their big-spending campaign promises, beginning in early April.

But Calgary remains competitive — and at least one longtime political watcher says it's too early to count out the NDP. 

UCP holds big lead outside Alberta's two biggest cities

The UCP leads province-wide with 52 per cent amongst decided or leaning voters, followed by the NDP at 44 per cent. 

One in five voters surveyed in the random poll conducted between May 12 -24 are still deciding how they will vote in Alberta's general election on Monday. 

A survey of Alberta voters last fall found that 51 per cent of women intended to vote NDP, compared to 43 per cent of men.

Men remain more likely to vote for the UCP — but women appear evenly split between the two parties in this most recent poll. 

Using CBC News' polling results, Brown predicts the UCP is likely to capture 51 of the 87 seats in Alberta's Legislative Assembly.

In the May 2019 election, the United Conservative Party — a merger of the Wildrose Party and Progressive Conservative Association in 2017 — grabbed 55 per cent of the popular vote and 63 seats in the legislature. The NDP won 24 seats, mostly in Edmonton. 

Smith and Notley have identical approval ratings

While most Albertans seem to prefer the UCP over the NDP, voters in the Prairie province appear to have identical impressions of the two parties' leaders.

Nearly half of Albertans (47 per cent) somewhat or strongly disapprove of both the UCP's Danielle Smith and the NDP's Rachel Notley.

The two leaders vying for the province's top job each received identical 42 per cent approval ratings.

Smith's campaign attracted a lot of controversy.

Last week, the province's ethics commissioner concluded that Smith breached Alberta's conflict of interest law. 

The UCP leader also took heat earlier in the campaign for suggesting those who got vaccinated against COVID-19 fell for the "charms of a tyrant" specifically referencing Adolf Hitler.

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And the NDP repeatedly hammered Smith throughout the campaign for her previous support for paying out-of-pocket for doctor visits. 

Brown thinks the NDP's relentless focus on Smith's competence and trustworthiness backfired.

She thinks many Alberta voters got turned off by the negative tone of the campaign. 

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"I think by focusing so much on Smith, [the NDP] gave people a reason to doubt Smith and her competence as leader, but they didn't do enough to give people an affirmative reason to vote for the NDP," said Brown. 

Janet Brown is a pollster based in Calgary. A poll conducted by Brown found that the UCP leads province-wide with 52 per cent amongst decided or leaning voters, followed by the NDP at 44 per cent. (CBC)

"The NDP had a campaign that only had one note," added Brown. "As the election campaign ground along, Albertans became more comfortable with Smith and less comfortable with Notley."

Longtime Alberta political watcher Duane Bratt echoes Brown, stressing that the NDP's attack ads likely overwhelmed voters. 

"It's been a very negative campaign," said the political scientist with Mount Royal University's economics, justice, and policy studies department.

Bratt thinks some NDP punches — including Smith's controversial Hitler and poppy comments — landed with voters.

But Bratt thinks a lot of the negative campaign became noise that voters tuned out. 

"They've thrown everything out, every video that they have.… If you throw everything at it, it seems like it's a piling on," said Bratt in an interview with CBC News. 

Poll shows battleground Calgary remains close

The horse race between the UCP and NDP remains tight in Calgary

The UCP leads amongst deciding and leaning voters with 49 per cent in Alberta's largest city. The NDP remains competitive with 46 per cent. 

Bratt thinks lingering concerns in Calgary voters' minds about the UCP leader could still help New Democrats. 

"I think they have a sliver of hope because there remain doubts about Smith," said Bratt.

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Bratt wonders if these misgivings will translate into traditional conservative voters staying home. He recalls the 2012 election where public opinion polls suggested Smith — then leader of the Wildrose Party — would win but the Progressive Conservatives came from behind to win a majority.

Conservatives are a constant in Calgary.

The city has — for decades — reliably elected conservatives provincially and federally.

The economy has rebounded, but doubts persist in Calgary voters' minds about Smith, says Bratt. 

"The UCP should win and should win quite handily," he said. "The fact that they're not is because of Danielle Smith."

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CBC News' random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 12 and 24 by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of both landlines and cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate was 5.35 per cent.